Improving probabilistic flood forecasting through a data assimilation scheme based on genetic programming

Opportunities offered by high performance computing provide a significant degree of promise in the enhancement of the performance of real-time flood forecasting systems. In this paper, a real-time framework for probabilistic flood forecasting through data assimilation is presented. The distributed rainfall-runoff real-time interactive basin simulator (RIBS) model is selected to simulate the hydrological process in the basin. Although the RIBS model is deterministic, it is run in a probabilistic way through the results of calibration developed in a previous work performed by the authors that identifies the probability distribution functions that best characterise the most relevant model parameters. Adaptive techniques improve the result of flood forecasts because the model can be adapted to observations in real time as new information is available. The new adaptive forecast model based on genetic programming as a data assimilation technique is compared with the previously developed flood forecast model based on the calibration results. Both models are probabilistic as they generate an ensemble of hydrographs, taking the different uncertainties inherent in any forecast process into account. The Manzanares River basin was selected as a case study, with the process being computationally intensive as it requires simulation of many replicas of the ensemble in real time.

Relationship among research collaboration, number of documents and number of citations. A case study in Spanish computer science production in 2000-2009.

This paper analyzes the relationship among research collaboration, number of documents and number of citations of computer science research activity. It analyzes the number of documents and citations and how they vary by number of authors. They are also analyzed (according to author set cardinality) under different circumstances, that is, when documents are written in different types of collaboration, when documents are published in different document types, when documents are published in different computer science subdisciplines, and, finally, when documents are published by journals with different impact factor quartiles. To investigate the above relationships, this paper analyzes the publications listed in the Web of Science and produced by active Spanish university professors between 2000 and 2009, working in the computer science field. Analyzing all documents, we show that the highest percentage of documents are published by three authors, whereas single-authored documents account for the lowest percentage. By number of citations, there is no positive association between the author cardinality and citation impact. Statistical tests show that documents written by two authors receive more citations per document and year than documents published by more authors. In contrast, results do not show statistically significant differences between documents published by two authors and one author. The research findings suggest that international collaboration results on average in publications with higher citation rates than national and institutional collaborations. We also find differences regarding citation rates between journals and conferences, across different computer science subdisciplines and journal quartiles as expected. Finally, our impression is that the collaborative level (number of authors per document) will increase in the coming years, and documents published by three or four authors will be the trend in computer science literature.

Towards the automatic generation of card games through Grammar-Guided Genetic Programming

We demonstrate generating complete and playable card games using evolutionary algorithms. Card games are represented in a previously devised card game description language, a context-free grammar. The syntax of this language allows us to use grammar-guided genetic programming. Candidate card games are evaluated through a cascading evaluation function, a multi-step process where games with undesired properties are progressively weeded out. Three representa- tive examples of generated games are analysed. We observed that these games are reasonably balanced and have skill ele- ments, they are not yet entertaining for human players. The particular shortcomings of the examples are discussed in re- gard to the generative process to be able to generate quality games

Teamwork competence and academic motivation in computer science engineering studies.

The present work is focused on studying two issues: the “teamwork” generic competence and the “academic motivation”. Currently the professional profile of engineers has a strong component of teamwork. On the other hand, motivational profile of students determines their tendencies when they come to work in team, as well as their performance at work. In this context we suggest four hypotheses: (H1) students improve their teamwork capacity by specific training and carrying out a set of activities integrated into an active learning process; (H2) students with higher mastery motivation have better attitude towards team working; (H3) students with higher mastery motivation obtain better results in academic performance; and (H4) students show different motivation profiles in different circumstances: type of courses, teaching methodologies, different times of the learning process. This study was carried out with computer science engineering students from two Spanish universities. The first results point to an improvement in teamwork competence of students if they have previously received specific training in facets of that competence. Other results indicate that there is a correlation between the motivational profiles of students and their perception about teamwork competence. Finally, and contrary to the initial hypothesis, these profiles appear to not influence significantly the academic performance of students.

Teamwork, motivational profiles and academic performance in computer science engineering

The present work is aimed at discussing several issues related to the teamwork generic competence, motivational profiles and academic performance. In particular, we study the improvement of teamwork attitude, the predominant types of motivation in different contexts and some correlations among these three components of the learning process. The above-mentioned aspects are of great importance. Currently, the professional profile of engineers has a strong teamwork component and the motivational profile of students determines both their tendencies when they come to work as part of a team, as well as their performance at work. Taking these issues into consideration, we suggest four hypotheses: (H1) students improve their teamwork capacity through specific training and carrying out of a set of activities integrated into an active learning process; (H2) students with higher mastery motivation have a better attitude towards teamwork; (H3) students with different types of motivations reach different levels of academic performance; and (H4) students show different motivation profiles in different circumstances: type of courses, teaching methodologies, different times of the learning process. This study was carried out with Computer Science Engineering students from two Spanish universities. The first results point to an improvement in teamwork competence of students if they have previously received specific training in facets of that competence. Other results indicate that there is a correlation between the motivational profiles of students and their perception of teamwork competence. Finally, results point to a clear relationship between some kind of motivation and academic performance. In particular, four kinds of motivation are analyzed and students are classified into two groups according to them. After analyzing several marks obtained in compulsory courses, we perceive that those students that show higher motivation for avoiding failure obtain, in general, worse academic performance.

Hiord: A type-free higher-order logic programming language with predicate abstraction

A new formalism, called Hiord, for defining type-free higherorder logic programming languages with predicate abstraction is introduced. A model theory, based on partial combinatory algebras, is presented, with respect to which the formalism is shown sound. A programming language built on a subset of Hiord, and its implementation are discussed. A new proposal for defining modules in this framework is considered, along with several examples.

An Introductory Course on Constraint Logic Programming

The purpose of this document is to serve as the printed material for the seminar "An Introductory Course on Constraint Logic Programming". The intended audience of this seminar are industrial programmers with a degree in Computer Science but little previous experience with constraint programming. The seminar itself has been field tested, prior to the writing of this document, with a group of the application programmers of Esprit project P23182, "VOCAL", aimed at developing an application in scheduling of field maintenance tasks in the context of an electric utility company. The contents of this paper follow essentially the flow of the seminar slides. However, there are some differences. These differences stem from our perception from the experience of teaching the seminar, that the technical aspects are the ones which need more attention and clearer explanations in the written version. Thus, this document includes more examples than those in the slides, more exercises (and the solutions to them), as well as four additional programming projects, with which we hope the reader will obtain a clearer view of the process of development and tuning of programs using CLP. On the other hand, several parts of the seminar have been taken out: those related with the account of fields and applications in which C(L)P is useful, and the enumerations of C(L)P tools available. We feel that the slides are clear enough, and that for more information on available tools, the interested reader will find more up-to-date information by browsing the Web or asking the vendors directly. More details in this direction will actually boil down to summarizing a user manual, which is not the aim of this document.

Probabilistic reasoning with a bayesian DNA device based on strand displacement

We present a computing model based on the DNA strand displacement technique which performs Bayesian inference. The model will take single stranded DNA as input data, representing the presence or absence of a specific molecular signal (evidence). The program logic encodes the prior probability of a disease and the conditional probability of a signal given the disease playing with a set of different DNA complexes and their ratios. When the input and program molecules interact, they release a different pair of single stranded DNA species whose relative proportion represents the application of Bayes? Law: the conditional probability of the disease given the signal. The models presented in this paper can empower the application of probabilistic reasoning in genetic diagnosis in vitro.

Genetic algorithms and Gaussian Bayesian networks to uncover the predictive core set of bibliometric indices

The diversity of bibliometric indices today poses the challenge of exploiting the relationships among them. Our research uncovers the best core set of relevant indices for predicting other bibliometric indices. An added difficulty is to select the role of each variable, that is, which bibliometric indices are predictive variables and which are response variables. This results in a novel multioutput regression problem where the role of each variable (predictor or response) is unknown beforehand. We use Gaussian Bayesian networks to solve the this problem and discover multivariate relationships among bibliometric indices. These networks are learnt by a genetic algorithm that looks for the optimal models that best predict bibliometric data. Results show that the optimal induced Gaussian Bayesian networks corroborate previous relationships between several indices, but also suggest new, previously unreported interactions. An extended analysis of the best model illustrates that a set of 12 bibliometric indices can be accurately predicted using only a smaller predictive core subset composed of citations, g-index, q2-index, and hr-index. This research is performed using bibliometric data on Spanish full professors associated with the computer science area.

Reusable Knowledge-based Components for Building Software Applications: A Knowledge Modelling Approach

In computer science, different types of reusable components for building software applications were proposed as a direct consequence of the emergence of new software programming paradigms. The success of these components for building applications depends on factors such as the flexibility in their combination or the facility for their selection in centralised or distributed environments such as internet. In this article, we propose a general type of reusable component, called primitive of representation, inspired by a knowledge-based approach that can promote reusability. The proposal can be understood as a generalisation of existing partial solutions that is applicable to both software and knowledge engineering for the development of hybrid applications that integrate conventional and knowledge based techniques. The article presents the structure and use of the component and describes our recent experience in the development of real-world applications based on this approach.

Some issues in analysis and specialization of modular ciao-prolog programs

Separating programs into modules is a well-known technique which has proven very useful in program development and maintenance. Starting by introducing a number of possible scenarios, in this paper we study different issues which appear when developing analysis and specialization techniques for modular logic programming. We discuss a number of design alternatives and their consequences for the different scenarios considered and describe where applicable the decisions made in the Ciao system analyzer and specializer. In our discussion we use the module system of Ciao Prolog. This is both for concreteness and because Ciao Prolog is a second-generation Prolog system which has been designed with global analysis and specialization in mind, and which has a strict module system. The aim of this work is not to provide a theoretical basis on modular analysis and specialization, but rather to discuss some interesting practical issues.

The ciao module system: A new module system for prolog

Ciao Prolog incorporates a module system which allows sepárate compilation and sensible creation of standalone executables. We describe some of the main aspects of the Ciao modular compiler, ciaoc, which takes advantage of the characteristics of the Ciao Prolog module system to automatically perform sepárate and incremental compilation and efficiently build small, standalone executables with competitive run-time performance, ciaoc can also detect statically a larger number of programming errors. We also present a generic code processing library for handling modular programs, which provides an important part of the functionality of ciaoc. This library allows the development of program analysis and transformation tools in a way that is to some extent orthogonal to the details of module system design, and has been used in the implementation of ciaoc and other Ciao system tools. We also describe the different types of executables which can be generated by the Ciao compiler, which offer different tradeoffs between executable size, startup time, and portability, depending, among other factors, on the linking regime used (static, dynamic, lazy, etc.). Finally, we provide experimental data which illustrate these tradeoffs.

The ciao modular, standalone compiler and its generic program processing library

Ciao Prolog incorporates a module system which allows sepárate compilation and sensible creation of standalone executables. We describe some of the main aspects of the Ciao modular compiler, ciaoc, which takes advantage of the characteristics of the Ciao Prolog module system to automatically perform sepárate and incremental compilation and efficiently build small, standalone executables with competitive run-time performance, ciaoc can also detect statically a larger number of programming errors. We also present a generic code processing library for handling modular programs, which provides an important part of the functionality of ciaoc. This library allows the development of program analysis and transformation tools in a way that is to some extent orthogonal to the details of module system design, and has been used in the implementation of ciaoc and other Ciao system tools. We also describe the different types of executables which can be generated by the Ciao compiler, which offer different tradeoffs between executable size, startup time, and portability, depending, among other factors, on the linking regime used (static, dynamic, lazy, etc.). Finally, we provide experimental data which illustrate these tradeoffs.

A system for automatically generating documentation for (C)LP programs

We describe lpdoc, a tool which generates documentation manuals automatically from one or more logic program source files, written in ISO-Prolog, Ciao, and other (C)LP languages. It is particularly useful for documenting library modules, for which it automatically generates a rich description of the module interface. However, it can also be used quite successfully to document full applications. A fundamental advantage of using lpdoc is that it helps maintaining a true correspondence between the program and its documentation, and also identifying precisely to what version of the program a given printed manual corresponds. The quality of the documentation generated can be greatly enhanced by including within the program text assertions (declarations with types, modes, etc.) for the predicates in the program, and machine-readable comments. One of the main novelties of lpdoc is that these assertions and comments are written using the Ciao system assertion language, which is also the language of communication between the compiler and the user and between the components of the compiler. This allows a significant synergy among specification, documentation, optimization, etc. A simple compatibility library allows conventional (C)LP systems to ignore these assertions and comments and treat normally programs documented in this way. The documentation can be generated in many formats including texinfo, dvi, ps, pdf, info, html/css, Unix nroff/man, Windows help, etc., and can include bibliographic citations and images. lpdoc can also generate “man” pages (Unix man page format), nicely formatted plain ascii “readme” files, installation scripts useful when the manuals are included in software distributions, brief descriptions in html/css or info formats suitable for inclusion in on-line indices of manuals, and even complete WWW and info sites containing on-line catalogs of documents and software distributions. The lpdoc manual, all other Ciao system manuals, and parts of this paper are generated by lpdoc.

Supporting End-User Development through a New Composition Model: An Empirical Study

End-user development (EUD) is much hyped, and its impact has outstripped even the most optimistic forecasts. Even so, the vision of end users programming their own solutions has not yet materialized. This will continue to be so unless we in both industry and the research community set ourselves the ambitious challenge of devising end to end an end-user application development model for developing a new age of EUD tools. We have embarked on this venture, and this paper presents the main insights and outcomes of our research and development efforts as part of a number of successful EU research projects. Our proposal not only aims to reshape software engineering to meet the needs of EUD but also to refashion its components as solution building blocks instead of programs and software developments. This way, end users will really be empowered to build solutions based on artefacts akin to their expertise and understanding of ideal solutions