27 resultados para Forward looking
em Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
Resumo:
We discuss the on-going worldwide activity to develop forward looking standards for quantum key distribution (QKD) in the European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI) QKD industry specification group (ISG). The long term goal is to develop a certification methodology that bridges the gap between theoretical proofs and practical implementations with imperfect devices. Current efforts are focused on the handling of side channels and characterization of the most relevant components.
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This paper examines the hybrid condition of Taipei's built environment within its socio-cultural context and daily activity of the city. It also points out certain forward-looking policies adopted by the City Government that over the last decades gave way to interesting and radical ambiances within the city. To illustrate this fact three case studies are described from the point of view of a pedestrian and on the basis of a journey. By identifying the key qualities that define these new ambiances, some relevant conclusions for urban intervention based on the creation of significant urban ambiances are finally extracted.
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The naïve Bayes approach is a simple but often satisfactory method for supervised classification. In this paper, we focus on the naïve Bayes model and propose the application of regularization techniques to learn a naïve Bayes classifier. The main contribution of the paper is a stagewise version of the selective naïve Bayes, which can be considered a regularized version of the naïve Bayes model. We call it forward stagewise naïve Bayes. For comparison’s sake, we also introduce an explicitly regularized formulation of the naïve Bayes model, where conditional independence (absence of arcs) is promoted via an L 1/L 2-group penalty on the parameters that define the conditional probability distributions. Although already published in the literature, this idea has only been applied for continuous predictors. We extend this formulation to discrete predictors and propose a modification that yields an adaptive penalization. We show that, whereas the L 1/L 2 group penalty formulation only discards irrelevant predictors, the forward stagewise naïve Bayes can discard both irrelevant and redundant predictors, which are known to be harmful for the naïve Bayes classifier. Both approaches, however, usually improve the classical naïve Bayes model’s accuracy.
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This paper presents a microinverter to be integrated into a solar module. The proposed solution combines a forward converter and a constant off-time boundary mode control, providing MPPT capability and unity power factor in a single-stage converter. The transformer structure of the power stage remains as in the classical DC-DC forward converter. Transformer primary windings are utilized for power transfer or demagnetization depending on the grid semi-cycle. Furthermore, bidirectional switches are used on the secondary side allowing direct connection of the inverter to the grid. Design considerations for the proposed solution are provided, regarding the inductance value, transformer turns ratio and frequency variation during a line semi-cycle. The decoupling of the twice the line frequency power pulsation is also discussed, as well as the maximum power point tracking (MPPT) capability. Simulation and experimental results for a 100W prototype are enclosed
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A description of the first renewable forward market mechanisms in the Iberian Electricity Market is provided. A contract for difference mechanism is available in Spain since March 2011between the last resort suppliers and the special regime (renewables and cogeneration) settling the price differences between the equilibrium price of the forward regulated auctions for the last resort supply and the spot price of the corresponding delivery period. Regulated auctions of baseload futures of the Portuguese zone in which the Portuguese last resort supplier sells the special regime production exist since December 2011. The experience gained from renewables auctions in Latin America could be used in the Iberian Electricity market, complementing these first market mechanisms. Introduction of renewable auctions at least for the most mature technologies (i.e. wind) in Spain and Portugal providing a fair price for the renewable generation will be of utmost importance in the short term to diminish the tariff deficit caused by the massive deployment of the feed-in-tariff scheme. Liquidity in the forward markets will also increase as a result of the entry of renewable generation companies intending to maximize their profits due to gradual suppression of feed in tariff schemes.
Resumo:
The engineering careers models were diverse in Europe, and are adopting now in Spain the Bolonia process for European Universities. Separated from older Universities, that are in part technically active, Civil Engineering (Caminos, Canales y Puertos) started at end of 18th century in Spain adopting the French models of Upper Schools for state civil servants with exam at entry. After 1800 intense wars, to conserve forest regions Ingenieros de Montes appeared as Upper School, and in 1855 also the Ingenieros Agrónomos to push up related techniques and practices. Other Engineers appeared as Upper Schools but more towards private factories. These ES got all adapted Lower Schools of Ingeniero Tecnico. Recently both grew much in number and evolved, linked also to recognized Professions. Spanish society, into European Community, evolved across year 2000, in part highly well, but with severe discordances, that caused severe youth unemployment with 2008-2011 crisis. With Bolonia process high formal changes step in from 2010-11, accepted with intense adaptation. The Lower Schools are changing towards the Upper Schools, and both that have shifted since 2010-11 various 4-years careers (Grado), some included into the precedent Professions, and diverse Masters. Acceptation of them to get students has started relatively well, and will evolve, and acceptation of new grades for employment in Spain, Europe or outside will be essential. Each Grado has now quite rigid curricula and programs, MOODLE was introduced to connect pupils, some specific uses of Personal Computers are taught in each subject. Escuela de Agronomos centre, reorganized with its old name in its precedent buildings at entrance of Campus Moncloa, offers Grados of Agronomic Engineering and Science for various public and private activities for agriculture, Alimentary Engineering for alimentary activities and control, Agro-Environmental Engineering more related to environment activities, and in part Biotechnology also in laboratories in Campus Monte-Gancedo for Biotechnology of Plants and Computational Biotechnology. Curricula include Basics, Engineering, Practices, Visits, English, ?project of end of career?, Stays. Some masters will conduce to specific professional diploma, list includes now Agro-Engineering, Agro-Forestal Biotechnology, Agro and Natural Resources Economy, Complex Physical Systems, Gardening and Landscaping, Rural Genie, Phytogenetic Resources, Plant Genetic Resources, Environmental Technology for Sustainable Agriculture, Technology for Human Development and Cooperation.
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The necessity/convenience for improving accuracy in determining the flood frequency is widely accepted further than among hydrologists, and is increasingly deepened in relationship with the statement of different thresholds related to the respective management systems. And both Scientific and Management Communities fully accept the necessity of living with determined levels of flood risk. Most of the approaches for “Advancing Methods” improving concentrate on the statistical ways, even since Climate in fact is not a Stationary process. The question is here reflected since the SMARTeST research and final highlights, policy and recommendations. The paper looks at a better agreement between Hydrology and the whole Climate as the result of the Global Thermal Machine and takes mainly into account a historical approach, trying to show the necessity of a wider collection and analysis of climate data for statistical approaches.
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International Conference on Dynamics of the Media and Content Industry. European Forum for Science and Industry.
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The necessity/convenience for improving accuracy in determining the flood frequency is widely accepted further than among hydrologists, and is increasingly deepened in relationship with the statement of different thresholds related to the respective management systems. And both Scientific and Management Communities fully accept the necessity of living with determined levels of flood risk. Most of the approaches for “Advancing Methods” improving concentrate on the statistical ways, even since Climate in fact is not a Stationary process. The question is here reflected since the SMARTeST research and final highlights, policy and recommendations. The paper looks at a better agreement between Hydrology and the whole Climate as the result of the Global Thermal Machine and takes mainly into account a historical approach, trying to show the necessity of a wider collection and analysis of climate data for statistical approaches.
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An assessment of the hedging performance in the Iberian Forward Electricity Market is performed. Aggregated data from the Portuguese and Spanish clearing houses for energy derivatives are considered. The hedging performance is measured through the ratio of the final open interest of a month derivatives contract divided by its accumulated cleared volume. The base load futures in the Iberian energy derivatives exchange show the lowest ratios due to good liquidity. The peak futures show bigger ratios as their reduced liquidity is produced by auctions fixed by Portuguese regulation. The base load swaps settled in the clearing house located in Spain show initially large values due to low registered volumes, as this clearing house is mainly used for short maturity (daily and weekly swaps). This hedging ratio can be a powerful oversight tool for energy regulators when accessing to all the derivatives transactions as envisaged by European regulation.
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The price formation of the Iberian Energy Derivatives Market-the power futures market-starting in July 2006, is assessed until November 2011, through the evolution of the difference between forward and spot prices in the delivery period (“ex-post forward risk premium”) and the comparison with the forward generation costs from natural gas (“clean spark spread”). The premium tends to be positive in all existing mechanisms (futures, Over-the-Counter and auctions for catering part of the last resort supplies). Since year 2011, the values are smaller due to regulatorily recognized prices for coal power plants. The power futures are strongly correlated with European gas prices. The spreads built with prompt contracts tend also to be positive. The biggest ones are for the month contract, followed by the quarter contract and then by the year contract. Therefore, gas fired generation companies can maximize profits trading with contracts of shorter maturity.
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The effects of climate change on agriculture are often characterised by changes in the average productivity of crops; however, these indicators provide limited information regarding the risks associated with fluctuations in productivity resulting from future changes in climate variability that may also affect agriculture. In this context, this study evaluates the combined effects of the risks associated with anomalies reflected by changes in the mean crop yield and the variability of productivity in European agroclimatic regions under future climate change scenarios. The objective of this study is to evaluate adaptation needs and to identify regional effects that should be addressed with greater urgency in the light of the risks and opportunities that are identified. The results show differential effects on regional agriculture and highlight the importance of considering both regional average impacts and the variability in crop productivity in setting priorities for the adaptation and maintenance of rural incomes and agricultural insurance programmes
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This paper presents a primary-parallel secondary-series multicore forward micro-inverter for photovoltaic AC-module application. The proposed solution changes the number of active phases depending on the grid voltage, thus enabling the usage of low-profile unitary turns ratio transformers. Therefore, the transformers are well coupled and the overall performance of the inverter is improved. Due to the multiphase solution the number of devices increases but, the current stress and losses per device are reduced contributing to an easier thermal management. Furthermore, the decoupling capacitor is split between the phases, contributing to a low-profile solution without electrolytic capacitors suitable to be mounted in the frame of a PV module.
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Looking at the Sky
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Un escenario habitualmente considerado para el uso sostenible y prolongado de la energía nuclear contempla un parque de reactores rápidos refrigerados por metales líquidos (LMFR) dedicados al reciclado de Pu y la transmutación de actínidos minoritarios (MA). Otra opción es combinar dichos reactores con algunos sistemas subcríticos asistidos por acelerador (ADS), exclusivamente destinados a la eliminación de MA. El diseño y licenciamiento de estos reactores innovadores requiere herramientas computacionales prácticas y precisas, que incorporen el conocimiento obtenido en la investigación experimental de nuevas configuraciones de reactores, materiales y sistemas. A pesar de que se han construido y operado un cierto número de reactores rápidos a nivel mundial, la experiencia operacional es todavía reducida y no todos los transitorios se han podido entender completamente. Por tanto, los análisis de seguridad de nuevos LMFR están basados fundamentalmente en métodos deterministas, al contrario que las aproximaciones modernas para reactores de agua ligera (LWR), que se benefician también de los métodos probabilistas. La aproximación más usada en los estudios de seguridad de LMFR es utilizar una variedad de códigos, desarrollados a base de distintas teorías, en busca de soluciones integrales para los transitorios e incluyendo incertidumbres. En este marco, los nuevos códigos para cálculos de mejor estimación ("best estimate") que no incluyen aproximaciones conservadoras, son de una importancia primordial para analizar estacionarios y transitorios en reactores rápidos. Esta tesis se centra en el desarrollo de un código acoplado para realizar análisis realistas en reactores rápidos críticos aplicando el método de Monte Carlo. Hoy en día, dado el mayor potencial de recursos computacionales, los códigos de transporte neutrónico por Monte Carlo se pueden usar de manera práctica para realizar cálculos detallados de núcleos completos, incluso de elevada heterogeneidad material. Además, los códigos de Monte Carlo se toman normalmente como referencia para los códigos deterministas de difusión en multigrupos en aplicaciones con reactores rápidos, porque usan secciones eficaces punto a punto, un modelo geométrico exacto y tienen en cuenta intrínsecamente la dependencia angular de flujo. En esta tesis se presenta una metodología de acoplamiento entre el conocido código MCNP, que calcula la generación de potencia en el reactor, y el código de termohidráulica de subcanal COBRA-IV, que obtiene las distribuciones de temperatura y densidad en el sistema. COBRA-IV es un código apropiado para aplicaciones en reactores rápidos ya que ha sido validado con resultados experimentales en haces de barras con sodio, incluyendo las correlaciones más apropiadas para metales líquidos. En una primera fase de la tesis, ambos códigos se han acoplado en estado estacionario utilizando un método iterativo con intercambio de archivos externos. El principal problema en el acoplamiento neutrónico y termohidráulico en estacionario con códigos de Monte Carlo es la manipulación de las secciones eficaces para tener en cuenta el ensanchamiento Doppler cuando la temperatura del combustible aumenta. Entre todas las opciones disponibles, en esta tesis se ha escogido la aproximación de pseudo materiales, y se ha comprobado que proporciona resultados aceptables en su aplicación con reactores rápidos. Por otro lado, los cambios geométricos originados por grandes gradientes de temperatura en el núcleo de reactores rápidos resultan importantes para la neutrónica como consecuencia del elevado recorrido libre medio del neutrón en estos sistemas. Por tanto, se ha desarrollado un módulo adicional que simula la geometría del reactor en caliente y permite estimar la reactividad debido a la expansión del núcleo en un transitorio. éste módulo calcula automáticamente la longitud del combustible, el radio de la vaina, la separación de los elementos de combustible y el radio de la placa soporte en función de la temperatura. éste efecto es muy relevante en transitorios sin inserción de bancos de parada. También relacionado con los cambios geométricos, se ha implementado una herramienta que, automatiza el movimiento de las barras de control en busca d la criticidad del reactor, o bien calcula el valor de inserción axial las barras de control. Una segunda fase en la plataforma de cálculo que se ha desarrollado es la simulació dinámica. Puesto que MCNP sólo realiza cálculos estacionarios para sistemas críticos o supercríticos, la solución más directa que se propone sin modificar el código fuente de MCNP es usar la aproximación de factorización de flujo, que resuelve por separado la forma del flujo y la amplitud. En este caso se han estudiado en profundidad dos aproximaciones: adiabática y quasiestática. El método adiabático usa un esquema de acoplamiento que alterna en el tiempo los cálculos neutrónicos y termohidráulicos. MCNP calcula el modo fundamental de la distribución de neutrones y la reactividad al final de cada paso de tiempo, y COBRA-IV calcula las propiedades térmicas en el punto intermedio de los pasos de tiempo. La evolución de la amplitud de flujo se calcula resolviendo las ecuaciones de cinética puntual. Este método calcula la reactividad estática en cada paso de tiempo que, en general, difiere de la reactividad dinámica que se obtendría con la distribución de flujo exacta y dependiente de tiempo. No obstante, para entornos no excesivamente alejados de la criticidad ambas reactividades son similares y el método conduce a resultados prácticos aceptables. Siguiendo esta línea, se ha desarrollado después un método mejorado para intentar tener en cuenta el efecto de la fuente de neutrones retardados en la evolución de la forma del flujo durante el transitorio. El esquema consiste en realizar un cálculo cuasiestacionario por cada paso de tiempo con MCNP. La simulación cuasiestacionaria se basa EN la aproximación de fuente constante de neutrones retardados, y consiste en dar un determinado peso o importancia a cada ciclo computacial del cálculo de criticidad con MCNP para la estimación del flujo final. Ambos métodos se han verificado tomando como referencia los resultados del código de difusión COBAYA3 frente a un ejercicio común y suficientemente significativo. Finalmente, con objeto de demostrar la posibilidad de uso práctico del código, se ha simulado un transitorio en el concepto de reactor crítico en fase de diseño MYRRHA/FASTEF, de 100 MW de potencia térmica y refrigerado por plomo-bismuto. ABSTRACT Long term sustainable nuclear energy scenarios envisage a fleet of Liquid Metal Fast Reactors (LMFR) for the Pu recycling and minor actinides (MAs) transmutation or combined with some accelerator driven systems (ADS) just for MAs elimination. Design and licensing of these innovative reactor concepts require accurate computational tools, implementing the knowledge obtained in experimental research for new reactor configurations, materials and associated systems. Although a number of fast reactor systems have already been built, the operational experience is still reduced, especially for lead reactors, and not all the transients are fully understood. The safety analysis approach for LMFR is therefore based only on deterministic methods, different from modern approach for Light Water Reactors (LWR) which also benefit from probabilistic methods. Usually, the approach adopted in LMFR safety assessments is to employ a variety of codes, somewhat different for the each other, to analyze transients looking for a comprehensive solution and including uncertainties. In this frame, new best estimate simulation codes are of prime importance in order to analyze fast reactors steady state and transients. This thesis is focused on the development of a coupled code system for best estimate analysis in fast critical reactor. Currently due to the increase in the computational resources, Monte Carlo methods for neutrons transport can be used for detailed full core calculations. Furthermore, Monte Carlo codes are usually taken as reference for deterministic diffusion multigroups codes in fast reactors applications because they employ point-wise cross sections in an exact geometry model and intrinsically account for directional dependence of the ux. The coupling methodology presented here uses MCNP to calculate the power deposition within the reactor. The subchannel code COBRA-IV calculates the temperature and density distribution within the reactor. COBRA-IV is suitable for fast reactors applications because it has been validated against experimental results in sodium rod bundles. The proper correlations for liquid metal applications have been added to the thermal-hydraulics program. Both codes are coupled at steady state using an iterative method and external files exchange. The main issue in the Monte Carlo/thermal-hydraulics steady state coupling is the cross section handling to take into account Doppler broadening when temperature rises. Among every available options, the pseudo materials approach has been chosen in this thesis. This approach obtains reasonable results in fast reactor applications. Furthermore, geometrical changes caused by large temperature gradients in the core, are of major importance in fast reactor due to the large neutron mean free path. An additional module has therefore been included in order to simulate the reactor geometry in hot state or to estimate the reactivity due to core expansion in a transient. The module automatically calculates the fuel length, cladding radius, fuel assembly pitch and diagrid radius with the temperature. This effect will be crucial in some unprotected transients. Also related to geometrical changes, an automatic control rod movement feature has been implemented in order to achieve a just critical reactor or to calculate control rod worth. A step forward in the coupling platform is the dynamic simulation. Since MCNP performs only steady state calculations for critical systems, the more straight forward option without modifying MCNP source code, is to use the flux factorization approach solving separately the flux shape and amplitude. In this thesis two options have been studied to tackle time dependent neutronic simulations using a Monte Carlo code: adiabatic and quasistatic methods. The adiabatic methods uses a staggered time coupling scheme for the time advance of neutronics and the thermal-hydraulics calculations. MCNP computes the fundamental mode of the neutron flux distribution and the reactivity at the end of each time step and COBRA-IV the thermal properties at half of the the time steps. To calculate the flux amplitude evolution a solver of the point kinetics equations is used. This method calculates the static reactivity in each time step that in general is different from the dynamic reactivity calculated with the exact flux distribution. Nevertheless, for close to critical situations, both reactivities are similar and the method leads to acceptable practical results. In this line, an improved method as an attempt to take into account the effect of delayed neutron source in the transient flux shape evolutions is developed. The scheme performs a quasistationary calculation per time step with MCNP. This quasistationary simulations is based con the constant delayed source approach, taking into account the importance of each criticality cycle in the final flux estimation. Both adiabatic and quasistatic methods have been verified against the diffusion code COBAYA3, using a theoretical kinetic exercise. Finally, a transient in a critical 100 MWth lead-bismuth-eutectic reactor concept is analyzed using the adiabatic method as an application example in a real system.