25 resultados para Forecast demand

em Universidad Politécnica de Madrid


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Predictions about electric energy needs, based on current electric energy models, forecast that the global energy consumption on Earth for 2050 will double present rates. Using distributed procedures for control and integration, the expected needs can be halved. Therefore implementation of Smart Grids is necessary. Interaction between final consumers and utilities is a key factor of future Smart Grids. This interaction is aimed to reach efficient and responsible energy consumption. Energy Residential Gateways (ERG) are new in-building devices that will govern the communication between user and utility and will control electric loads. Utilities will offer new services empowering residential customers to lower their electric bill. Some of these services are Smart Metering, Demand Response and Dynamic Pricing. This paper presents a practical development of an ERG for residential buildings.

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This paper focuses on the railway rolling stock circulation problem in rapid transit networks where the known demand and train schedule must be met by a given fleet. In rapid transit networks the frequencies are high and distances are relatively short. Although the distances are not very large, service times are high due to the large number of intermediate stops required to allow proper passenger flow. The previous circumstances and the reduced capacity of the depot stations and that the rolling stock is shared between the different lines, force the introduction of empty trains and a careful control on shunting operation. In practice the future demand is generally unknown and the decisions must be based on uncertain forecast. We have developed a stochastic rolling stock formulation of the problem. The computational experiments were developed using a commercial line of the Madrid suburban rail network operated by RENFE (The main Spanish operator of suburban trains of passengers). Comparing the results obtained by deterministic scenarios and stochastic approach some useful conclusions may be obtained.

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In order to minimize car-based trips, transport planners have been particularly interested in understanding the factors that explain modal choices. Transport modelling literature has been increasingly aware that socioeconomic attributes and quantitative variables are not sufficient to characterize travelers and forecast their travel behavior. Recent studies have also recognized that users’ social interactions and land use patterns influence travel behavior, especially when changes to transport systems are introduced; but links between international and Spanish perspectives are rarely dealt with. The overall objective of the thesis is to develop a stepped methodology that integrate diverse perspectives to evaluate the willingness to change patterns of urban mobility in Madrid, based on four steps: (1st) analysis of causal relationships between both objective and subjective personal variables, and travel behavior to capture pro-car and pro-public transport intentions; (2nd) exploring the potential influence of individual trip characteristics and social influence variables on transport mode choice; (3rd) identifying built environment dimensions on travel behavior; and (4th) exploring the potential influence on transport mode choice of extrinsic characteristics of individual trip using panel data, land use variables using spatial characteristics and social influence variables. The data used for this thesis have been collected from a two panel smartphone-based survey (n=255 and 190 respondents, respectively) carried out in Madrid. Although the steps above are mainly methodological, the application to the area of Madrid allows deriving important results that can be directly used to forecast travel demand and to evaluate the benefits of specific policies that might be implemented in the area. The results demonstrated, respectively: (1st) transport policy actions are more likely to be effective when pro-car intention has been disrupted first; (2nd) the consideration of “helped” and “voluntary” users as tested here could have a positive and negative impact, respectively, on the use of public transport; (3rd) the importance of density, design, diversity and accessibility underlying dimensions responsible for land use variables; and (4th) there are clearly different types of combinations of social interactions, land use and time frame on travel behavior studies. Finally, with the objective to study the impact of demand measures to change urban mobility behavior, those previous results have been considered in a unique way, a hybrid discrete choice model has been used on a 5th step. Then it can be concluded that urban mobility behavior is not only ruled by the maximum utility criterion, but also by a strong psychological-environment concept, developed without the mediation of cognitive processes during choice, i.e., many people using public transport on their way to work do not do it for utilitarian reasons, but because no other choice is available. Regarding built environment dimensions, the more diversity place of residence, the more difficult the use of public transport or walking.

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This paper presents the results of the analysis focused on scientific-technological KT in four Mexican firms and carried out by the case study approach. The analysis highlights the use of KT mechanisms as a means to obtain scientific-technological knowledge, learning, building S&T capabilities, and achieve the results of the R&D and innovation by firms.

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Ubiquitous sensor network deployments, such as the ones found in Smart cities and Ambient intelligence applications, require constantly increasing high computational demands in order to process data and offer services to users. The nature of these applications imply the usage of data centers. Research has paid much attention to the energy consumption of the sensor nodes in WSNs infrastructures. However, supercomputing facilities are the ones presenting a higher economic and environmental impact due to their very high power consumption. The latter problem, however, has been disregarded in the field of smart environment services. This paper proposes an energy-minimization workload assignment technique, based on heterogeneity and application-awareness, that redistributes low-demand computational tasks from high-performance facilities to idle nodes with low and medium resources in the WSN infrastructure. These non-optimal allocation policies reduce the energy consumed by the whole infrastructure and the total execution time.

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In this paper, we describe the development of a control system for Demand-Side Management in the residential sector with Distributed Generation. The electrical system under study incorporates local PV energy generation, an electricity storage system, connection to the grid and a home automation system. The distributed control system is composed of two modules: a scheduler and a coordinator, both implemented with neural networks. The control system enhances the local energy performance, scheduling the tasks demanded by the user and maximizing the use of local generation.

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Area, launched in 1999 with the Bologna Declaration, has bestowed such a magnitude and unprecedented agility to the transformation process undertaken by European universities. However, the change has been more profound and drastic with regards to the use of new technologies both inside and outside the classroom. This article focuses on the study and analysis of the technology’s history within the university education and its impact on teachers, students and teaching methods. All the elements that have been significant and innovative throughout the history inside the teaching process have been analyzed, from the use of blackboard and chalk during lectures, the use of slide projectors and transparent slides, to the use of electronic whiteboards and Internet nowadays. The study is complemented with two types of surveys that have been performed among teachers and students during the school years 1999 - 2011 in the School of Civil Engineering at the Polytechnic University of Madrid. The pros and cons of each of the techniques and methodologies used in the learning process over the last decades are described, unfolding how they have affected the teacher, who has evolved from writing on a whiteboard to project onto a screen, the student, who has evolved from taking handwritten notes to download information or search the Internet, and the educational process, that has evolved from the lecture to acollaborative learning and project-based learning. It is unknown how the process of learning will evolve in the future, but we do know the consequences that some of the multimedia technologies are having on teachers, students and the learning process. It is our goal as teachers to keep ourselves up to date, in order to offer the student adequate technical content, while providing proper motivation through the use of new technologies. The study provides a forecast in the evolution of multimedia within the classroom and the renewal of the education process, which in our view, will set the basis for future learning process within the context of this new interactive era.

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Applying foresight tools to determine future demand requirements on tourist destinations

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Reducing energy consumption is one of the main goals of sustainability planning in most countries. For instance in Europe, the EC established the objectives in the Communication “20 20 by 2020 Europe's climate change opportunity”.

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Reducing energy consumption is one of the main goals of sustainability planning in most countries. For instance in Europe, the EC established the objectives in the Communication “20 20 by 2020 Europe's climate change opportunity”. • Next Generation Networks (NGN)  One of the most relevant upcoming ICT development • The role of energy consumption seems mostly absent from the main analysis and the debate on NGN deployment.

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La demanda de contenidos de vídeo ha aumentado rápidamente en los últimos años como resultado del gran despliegue de la TV sobre IP (IPTV) y la variedad de servicios ofrecidos por los operadores de red. Uno de los servicios que se ha vuelto especialmente atractivo para los clientes es el vídeo bajo demanda (VoD) en tiempo real, ya que ofrece una transmisión (streaming) inmediata de gran variedad de contenidos de vídeo. El precio que los operadores tienen que pagar por este servicio es el aumento del tráfico en las redes, que están cada vez más congestionadas debido a la mayor demanda de contenidos de VoD y al aumento de la calidad de los propios contenidos de vídeo. Así, uno de los principales objetivos de esta tesis es encontrar soluciones que reduzcan el tráfico en el núcleo de la red, manteniendo la calidad del servicio en el nivel adecuado y reduciendo el coste del tráfico. La tesis propone un sistema jerárquico de servidores de streaming en el que se ejecuta un algoritmo para la ubicación óptima de los contenidos de acuerdo con el comportamiento de los usuarios y el estado de la red. Debido a que cualquier algoritmo óptimo de distribución de contenidos alcanza un límite en el que no se puede llegar a nuevas mejoras, la inclusión de los propios clientes del servicio (los peers) en el proceso de streaming puede reducir aún más el tráfico de red. Este proceso se logra aprovechando el control que el operador tiene en las redes de gestión privada sobre los equipos receptores (Set-Top Box) ubicados en las instalaciones de los clientes. El operador se reserva cierta capacidad de almacenamiento y streaming de los peers para almacenar los contenidos de vídeo y para transmitirlos a otros clientes con el fin de aliviar a los servidores de streaming. Debido a la incapacidad de los peers para sustituir completamente a los servidores de streaming, la tesis propone un sistema de streaming asistido por peers. Algunas de las cuestiones importantes que se abordan en la tesis son saber cómo los parámetros del sistema y las distintas distribuciones de los contenidos de vídeo en los peers afectan al rendimiento general del sistema. Para dar respuesta a estas preguntas, la tesis propone un modelo estocástico preciso y flexible que tiene en cuenta parámetros como las capacidades de enlace de subida y de almacenamiento de los peers, el número de peers, el tamaño de la biblioteca de contenidos de vídeo, el tamaño de los contenidos y el esquema de distribución de contenidos para estimar los beneficios del streaming asistido por los peers. El trabajo también propone una versión extendida del modelo matemático mediante la inclusión de la probabilidad de fallo de los peers y su tiempo de recuperación en el conjunto de parámetros del modelo. Estos modelos se utilizan como una herramienta para la realización de exhaustivos análisis del sistema de streaming de VoD asistido por los peers para la amplia gama de parámetros definidos en los modelos. Abstract The demand of video contents has rapidly increased in the past years as a result of the wide deployment of IPTV and the variety of services offered by the network operators. One of the services that has especially become attractive to the customers is real-time Video on Demand (VoD) because it offers an immediate streaming of a large variety of video contents. The price that the operators have to pay for this convenience is the increased traffic in the networks, which are becoming more congested due to the higher demand for VoD contents and the increased quality of the videos. Therefore, one of the main objectives of this thesis is finding solutions that would reduce the traffic in the core of the network, keeping the quality of service on satisfactory level and reducing the traffic cost. The thesis proposes a system of hierarchical structure of streaming servers that runs an algorithm for optimal placement of the contents according to the users’ behavior and the state of the network. Since any algorithm for optimal content distribution reaches a limit upon which no further improvements can be made, including service customers themselves (the peers) in the streaming process can further reduce the network traffic. This process is achieved by taking advantage of the control that the operator has in the privately managed networks over the Set-Top Boxes placed at the clients’ premises. The operator reserves certain storage and streaming capacity on the peers to store the video contents and to stream them to the other clients in order to alleviate the streaming servers. Because of the inability of the peers to completely substitute the streaming servers, the thesis proposes a system for peer-assisted streaming. Some of the important questions addressed in the thesis are how the system parameters and the various distributions of the video contents on the peers would impact the overall system performance. In order to give answers to these questions, the thesis proposes a precise and flexible stochastic model that takes into consideration parameters like uplink and storage capacity of the peers, number of peers, size of the video content library, size of contents and content distribution scheme to estimate the benefits of the peer-assisted streaming. The work also proposes an extended version of the mathematical model by including the failure probability of the peers and their recovery time in the set of parameters. These models are used as tools for conducting thorough analyses of the peer-assisted system for VoD streaming for the wide range of defined parameters.

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El mundo de las telecomunicaciones evoluciona a gran velocidad, acorde con las necesidades de los usuarios. El crecimiento del número de servicios a través de las conexiones que actualmente utilizamos para conectarnos a Internet (Ej. IPTV) con elevados requerimientos de ancho de banda, que junto a los servicios de nuevo nacimiento (ej. OTT), contribuyen tanto al aumento de la necesidad de mayores velocidades de conexión de los usuarios como a la implantación de nuevos modelos de calidad de servicio. Las redes de datos de banda ancha (fija y móvil) actuales deben, por lo tanto, experimentar una profunda transformación para conseguir solventar de una forma eficiente los problemas y las necesidades de tráfico, pudiendo así absorber el progresivo incremento del ancho de banda, dejando las puertas abiertas a futuras mejoras. Y para ello las operadoras se nutrirán con la valiosa información de tráfico y usuario que les lleven a tomar las mejores decisiones de cara a que las transformaciones llevadas a cabo cubran exactamente lo que el usuario demanda de la forma más eficiente posible. Con estas premisas, surgieron las ideas que se plasmaron como objetivos del PFC : La idea de narrar el despliegue de la banda ancha en España desde sus orígenes hasta la actualidad, enfocando su crecimiento desde un punto de vista sociotecnológico. Dando continuidad al punto anterior, se persiguió la idea de conocer las herramientas sociales y tecnológicas a raíz de las cuales se pueda realizar una previsión del tráfico en las redes de las operadoras en un futuro cercano. La pretensión de mostrar las características de los usuarios de banda ancha y del tráfico de datos que generan, que son de carácter crítico para las operadoras en la elaboración de forma adecuada de la planificación de sus redes. La intención de revelar los procedimientos de las operadoras para que, una vez conocidas las características de sus usuarios, se puedan cumplir los requisitos demandados por los mismos: QoS y los indicadores clave de rendimiento (KPIs) Por otro lado, el nivel de detalle dado pretende adecuarse a un público que no tenga profundos conocimientos sobre la materia, y salvo partes bastante concretas, se puede catalogar este trabajo como de abierto al público en general. ABSTRACT. The world of telecommunications is evolving at high speed, according to the needs of users. The growing of services number through the connections that currently have been used to connect to the Internet (eg IPTV ) with high bandwidth requirements, which together with the new birth services (eg OTT ) contribute both to increased the need for higher connection speeds users and the implementation of new models of service quality. Data networks broadband (fixed and mobile ) today must , therefore, undergo a deep transformation to achieve an efficient solving problems and traffic needs, thus being able to absorb the gradual increase of bandwidth, leaving the door open to future improvements. And for that the operators will be nurtured with valuable information and user traffic that lead them to make better decisions in the face of the transformations carried out exactly meet the user demand for the most efficient possible way. With these assumptions, the ideas that emerged were expressed as PFC objectives : The idea of narrating the broadband deployment in Spain from its origins to the present, focusing its growth from a socio-technological approach. Continuing the previous point, it pursued the idea of knowing the social tools and technology as a result of which it can perform a traffic forecast operators networks in the near future. The attempt to show the characteristics of broadband users and data traffic they generate, which are mission critical for operators in developing adequately planning their networks. The intention to disclose procedures for operators, once known the characteristics of their users, it can meet the requirements demanded by them: QoS and key performance indicators (KPI). On the other hand, the level of detail given suit seeks an audience that does not have deep knowledge on the subject, unless quite specific parts, this work can be classified as open to the general public.

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La contribución del sector de las tecnologías de la información y las comunicaciones (TICs) al consumo de energía a nivel global se ha visto incrementada considerablemente en la última década al mismo tiempo que su relevancia dentro de la economía global. Se prevé que esta tendencia continúe debido al uso cada vez más intensivo de estas tecnologías. Una de las principales causas es el tráfico de datos de banda ancha generado por el uso de las redes de telecomunicaciones. De hecho como respuesta a esta demanda de recursos por parte de los usuarios, de la industria de las telecomunicaciones está iniciando el despliegue de las redes de nueva generación. En cualquier caso, el consumo de energía es un factor generalmente ausente del debate sobre el despliegue de estas tecnologías, a pesar de la posible repercusión que pueda llegar a tener en los costes y la sostenibilidad de estos proyectos. A lo largo de este trabajo se desarrollan modelos para evaluar el consumo energético de las redes de acceso de nueva generación (NGAN). Estos servirán tanto para llevar a cabo cálculos en un escenario global estático, como en cualquiera otro que determine la potencial evolución de la red de acceso a lo largo de su despliegue. Estos modelos combinan tres factores: la penetración prospectiva de cada una de las tecnologías de banda ancha analizadas, el tráfico generado por usuario y su futura evolución, y el perfil de consumo de energía de cada uno de los dispositivos de red desplegados. Tras evaluar los resultados derivados de la aplicación de los modelos en el caso demográfico específico de España, se obtienen conclusiones acerca de las diferencias tecnológicas en cuanto al consumo energético, sus implicaciones económicas, y la sensibilidad de los cálculos atendiendo a posibles modificaciones en los valores de referencia de diferentes parámetros de diseño. Se destaca por tanto el efecto en el consumo energético de los desarrollos tecnológicos, tecno-económicos, y de las decisiones en el ámbito regulatorio. Aunque como se ha dicho, se ha ejemplificado el cálculo para un caso particular, tanto los modelos como las conclusiones extraídas se pueden extrapolar a otros países similares.

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With recent technological developments within the field of power conditioning and the progressive decrease of incentives for PV electricity in grid-connected markets, new operation modes for PV systems should be explored beyond the traditional maximization of PV electri city feed-in. An example can be found in the domestic sector, where the use of modern PV hybrid systems combin ed with efficient electrical appliances and demand side management strategies can significantly enhance the PV value for the user. This paper presents an active demand side management system able to displace the consumer’s load curve in response to local (PV hybrid system, user) and external conditions (external grid). In this way, th e consumer becomes an “active consumer” that can also cooperate with others and the grid, increasing even more the PV value for the electrical system.

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The uncertainty associated to the forecast of photovoltaic generation is a major drawback for the widespread introduction of this technology into electricity grids. This uncertainty is a challenge in the design and operation of electrical systems that include photovoltaic generation. Demand-Side Management (DSM) techniques are widely used to modify energy consumption. If local photovoltaic generation is available, DSM techniques can use generation forecast to schedule the local consumption. On the other hand, local storage systems can be used to separate electricity availability from instantaneous generation; therefore, the effects of forecast error in the electrical system are reduced. The effects of uncertainty associated to the forecast of photovoltaic generation in a residential electrical system equipped with DSM techniques and a local storage system are analyzed in this paper. The study has been performed in a solar house that is able to displace a residential user?s load pattern, manage local storage and estimate forecasts of electricity generation. A series of real experiments and simulations have carried out on the house. The results of this experiments show that the use of Demand Side Management (DSM) and local storage reduces to 2% the uncertainty on the energy exchanged with the grid. In the case that the photovoltaic system would operate as a pure electricity generator feeding all generated electricity into grid, the uncertainty would raise to around 40%.