Multiple proportion case-basing driven CBRE and its application in the evaluation of possible failure of firms

Case-based reasoning (CBR) is a unique tool for the evaluation of possible failure of firms (EOPFOF) for its eases of interpretation and implementation. Ensemble computing, a variation of group decision in society, provides a potential means of improving predictive performance of CBR-based EOPFOF. This research aims to integrate bagging and proportion case-basing with CBR to generate a method of proportion bagging CBR for EOPFOF. Diverse multiple case bases are first produced by multiple case-basing, in which a volume parameter is introduced to control the size of each case base. Then, the classic case retrieval algorithm is implemented to generate diverse member CBR predictors. Majority voting, the most frequently used mechanism in ensemble computing, is finally used to aggregate outputs of member CBR predictors in order to produce final prediction of the CBR ensemble. In an empirical experiment, we statistically validated the results of the CBR ensemble from multiple case bases by comparing them with those of multivariate discriminant analysis, logistic regression, classic CBR, the best member CBR predictor and bagging CBR ensemble. The results from Chinese EOPFOF prior to 3 years indicate that the new CBR ensemble, which significantly improved CBRs predictive ability, outperformed all the comparative methods.

Comparative Analysis of Firms’ Participation in National and International Programmes to Support Innovation

Innovation is a process that faces several market failure situations. For this reason and for being considered one of the main drivers of economic growth, a large number of governmental and supranational policies are designed to foster technological progress. Along with these policies, there is an increasing concern with their continuous evaluation aiming at providing valuable feedback for these program?s adaptation and adequacy to the firm?s needs. The paper develops an evaluation of the influence of innovation-focused programs in firm¿s innovation and economic performance by means of a comparative analysis of the results obtained by Spanish firms that have participated in R&D national programmes and those achieved by Spanish firms participating in EUREKA international program. Findings show that the programmes were effective in achieving their objective of promoting technological innovation but, as regards the economic effects, the results were less conclusive since some differences were observed depending on the programme. The EUREKA companies displayed better behaviour, with positive differences in their returns on assets and labour productivity. The results also confirm the importance of designing more detailed and rigorous evaluation processes, taking into account the risk variable, in order to draw a more realistic picture of the impact of national and international programmes.