Implementation of safety based incentives in Public Private Partnerships (PPPs): an empirical analysis for the case of Spain

Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) are mostly implemented to circumvent budgetary constraints, and to encourage efficiency and quality in the provision of public infrastructure in order to reach social welfare. One of the ways of reaching the latter objective is by the introduction of performance based standards tied to bonuses and penalties to reward or punish the performance of the contractor. This paper focuses on the implementation of safety based incentives in PPPs in such a way that the better the safety outcome the greater larger will be the economic reward to the contractor. The main aim of this paper is to identify whether the incentives to improve road safety in PPPs are ultimately effective in improving safety ratios in Spain. To that end, Poisson and negative binomial regression models have been applied using information of motorways of the Spanish network of 2006. The findings indicate that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not much controllable by the contractor such as the Average Annual Daily Traffic and the percentage of heavy vehicles, the implementation of safety incentives in PPPs has a positive influence in the reduction of fatalities, injuries and accidents.

Investigaciones dendrogeomorfológicas aplicadas al estudio de la peligrosidad por avenidas e inundaciones en el parque nacional de la Caldera de Taburiente (La Palma, Islas Canarias).

Las Angustias torrent is an ungauged stream located in the Caldera de Taburiente National Park (Canary Islands), where frequent and intense flood events occur (even causing fatalities, such as in November 2001). The aim of this research is to analyse the flood hazard in one of the most visited areas of this protected area. To carry out this objective, during two dendrogeomorphological campaigns, all pine trees located on the stream bed and banks showing external evidence of flash flood damage were sampled. In addition, a detailed topographical survey using GPS and total station allowed us to obtain the inputs for hydraulic modelling. In the preliminary results, two flood events have been identified (1967-1968 and 1999- 2000), and evidence of other dates has been observed (1976, 1983, 1993 and 2001). Magnitude reconstruction of these events will improve flood hazard and risk analyses and will be useful for National Park managers.

Risk assessment of the spanish national railway system

The principal risks in the railway industry are mainly associated with collisions, derailments and level crossing accidents. An understanding of the nature of previous accidents on the railway network is required to identify potential causes and develop safety systems and deploy safety procedures. Risk assessment is a process for determining the risk magnitude to assist with decision-making. We propose a three-step methodology to predict the mean number of fatalities in railway accidents. The first is to predict the mean number of accidents by analyzing generalized linear models and selecting the one that best fits to the available historical data on the basis of goodness-offit statistics. The second is to compute the mean number of fatalities per accident and the third is to estimate the mean number of fatalities. The methodology is illustrated on the Spanish railway system. Statistical models accounting for annual and grouped data for the 1992-2009 time period have been analyzed. After identifying the models for broad and narrow gauges, we predicted mean number of accidents and the number of fatalities for the 2010-18 time period.

Analysis of road safety incentives in highway concessions in Spain

Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) are mostly implemented for three reasons: to circumvent budgetary constraints, encourage efficiency and improvement of quality in the provision of public infrastructure. One of the ways of reaching the latter objective is by the introduction of performance-based standards tied to bonuses and penalties to reward or punish the performance of the contractor. These performance based standards often refer to different aspects such as technical, environmental and safety issues. This paper focuses on the implementation of safety based incentives in PPPs. The main aim of this paper is to analyze whether the incentives to improve road safety in PPPs are effective in improving safety ratios in Spain. To this end, negative binomial regression models have been applied using information from the Spanish high capacity network in 2006. The findings indicate that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not much controllable by the contractor such as the Average Annual Daily Traffic and the percentage of heavy vehicles in the highway, the implementation of safety incentives in PPPs has a positive influence in the reduction of fatalities, injuries and accidents.

Effectiveness of safety-based incentives in Public Private Partnerships: Evidence from the case of Spain

Many countries around the world are implementing Public?Private?Partnership (PPP) contacts to manage road infrastructure. In some of these contracts the public sector introduces economic incentives to the private operator to foster the accomplishment of social goals. One of the incentives that have been introduced in some PPP contracts is related to safety in such a way that the better the safety outcome the greater will be the economic reward to the contractor. The aim of this paper is at identify whether the incentives to improve road safety in highway PPPs are ultimately effective in improving safety ratios. To this end Poisson and negative binomial regression models have been applied using information from highway sections in Spain. The findings indicate that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not much controllable by the contractor such as the Average Annual Daily Traffic and the percentage of heavy vehicles, the implementation of safety incentives in PPPs has a positive influence in the reduction of fatalities, injuries and accidents.

Vision-based active safety system for automatic stopping

ntelligent systems designed to reduce highway fatalities have been widely applied in the automotive sector in the last decade. Of all users of transport systems, pedestrians are the most vulnerable in crashes as they are unprotected. This paper deals with an autonomous intelligent emergency system designed to avoid collisions with pedestrians. The system consists of a fuzzy controller based on the time-to-collision estimate – obtained via a vision-based system – and the wheel-locking probability – obtained via the vehicle’s CAN bus – that generates a safe braking action. The system has been tested in a real car – a convertible Citroën C3 Pluriel – equipped with an automated electro-hydraulic braking system capable of working in parallel with the vehicle’s original braking circuit. The system is used as a last resort in the case that an unexpected pedestrian is in the lane and all the warnings have failed to produce a response from the driver.

Analysis of road safety incentives in highway concessions in Spain

Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) are mostly implemented for three reasons: to circumvent budgetary constraints, encourage efficiency and improvement of quality in the provision of public infrastructure. One of the ways of reaching the latter objective is by the introduction of performance-based standards tied to bonuses and penalties to reward or punish the performance of the contractor. These performance based standards often refer to different aspects such as technical, environmental and safety issues. This paper focuses on the implementation of safety based incentives in PPPs. The main aim of this paper is to analyze whether the incentives to improve road safety in PPPs are effective in improving safety ratios in Spain. To this end, negative binomial regression models have been applied using information from the Spanish high capacity network in 2006. The findings indicate that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not much controllable by the contractor such as the Average Annual Daily Traffic and the percentage of heavy vehicles in the highway, the implementation of safety incentives in PPPs has a positive influence in the reduction of fatalities, injuries and accidents.

Foreword special issue Lorca’s earthquake

(This is an excerpt from the content) On May 11 2011 at 1705 hours, a small 4.5 Mw. magnitude earthquake struck the town of Lorca in south-eastern Spain. Other than alarmed citizens, only minor damage to buildings occurred due to this quake. Unfortunately at 1847 hours, a second shock registering a magnitude of 5.1 Mw. and very shallow (just around 2 km under the city) produced the largest seismic catastrophe registered in Spain in the last 120 years. This second shock is commonly referred to as “Lorca’s earthquake” and the following papers describe the context, circumstances and consequences of the event. Spain is a country of moderate seismic hazard in a global context. Before the Lorca earthquake, the most destructive earthquake in modern times was the so-called “Andalusian earthquake” (25th December 1884) that resulted in 750 fatalities and more than 1,500 injuries, reaching X in Mercalli’s intensity scale. Despite the lack of catastrophic events in the last 120 years, Spain has always had a scientific interest in seismic ...

Poisson dynamic models. An application to interurban accidents in Spain

In this study we apply count data models to four integer–valued time series related to accidentality in Spanish roads applying both the frequentist and Bayesian approaches. The time series are: number of fatalities, number of fatal accidents, number of killed or seriously injured (KSI) and number of accidents with KSI. The model structure is Poisson regression with first order autoregressive errors. The purpose of the paper is first to sort out the explanatory variables by relevance and second to carry out a prediction exercise for validation.

Diseño de un modelo para la identificación y análisis de tramos de carreteras sin accidentes : una nueva visión de la seguridad vial

El planteamiento tradicional de análisis de la accidentalidad en carretera pasa por la consideración de herramientas paliativas, como son la identificación y gestión de los puntos negros o tramos de concentración de accidentes, o preventivas, como las auditorías e inspecciones de seguridad vial. En esta tesis doctoral se presenta un planteamiento complementario a estas herramientas, desde una perspectiva novedosa: la consideración de los tramos donde no se producen accidentes; son los denominados Tramos Blancos. La tesis persigue demostrar que existen determinados parámetros del diseño de las carreteras y del tráfico que, bajo características generales similares de las vías, tienen influencia en el hecho de que se produzcan o no accidentes, adicionalmente a la exposición al riesgo, como factor principal, y a otros factores. La propia definición de los Tramos Blancos, entendidos como tramos de carreteras de longitud representativa donde no se han producido accidentes con víctimas mortales o heridos graves durante un periodo largo de tiempo, garantiza que esta situación no se produzca como consecuencia de la aleatoriedad de los accidentes, sino que pudiera deberse a una confluencia específica de determinados parámetros de la geometría de la vía y del tráfico total y de vehículos pesados. Para el desarrollo de esta investigación se han considerado la red de autopistas de peaje y las carreteras convencionales de la Red del Estado de España, que supone un total de 17.000 kilómetros, y los datos de accidentes con víctimas mortales y heridos graves en el periodo 2006-2010, ambos incluidos, en estas redes (un total de 10.000 accidentes). La red viaria objeto de análisis supone el 65% de la longitud de la Red de Carreteras del Estado, por la que circula el 33% de su tráfico; en ella se produjeron en el año 2013 el 47% de los accidentes con víctimas y el 60% de las víctimas mortales de la Red de Carreteras del Estado. Durante la investigación se ha desarrollado una base de datos de 250.130 registros y más de 3.5 millones de datos en el caso de las autopistas de peaje de la Red de Carreteras del Estado y de 935.402 registros y más de 14 millones de datos en el caso de la red convencional del Estado analizada. Tanto las autopistas de peaje como las carreteras convencionales han sido clasificadas según sus características de tráfico, de manera que se valoren vías con nivel de exposición al riesgo similar. Para cada tipología de vía, se ha definido como longitud de referencia para que un tramo se considere Tramo Blanco la longitud igual al percentil 95 de las longitudes de tramos sin accidentes con heridos graves o víctimas mortales durante el periodo 2006-2010. En el caso de las autopistas de peaje, en la tipología que ha sido considerada para la definición del modelo, esta longitud de referencia se estableció en 14.5 kilómetros, mientras que en el caso de las carreteras convencionales, se estableció en 7.75 kilómetros. Para cada uno de los tipos de vía considerados se han construido una base de datos en la que se han incluido las variables de existencia o no de Tramo Blanco, así como las variables de tráfico (intensidad media diaria total, intensidad de vehículos pesados y porcentaje de vehículos pesados ), la velocidad media y las variables de geometría (número de carriles, ancho de carril, ancho de arcén derecho e izquierdo, ancho de calzada y plataforma, radio, peralte, pendiente y visibilidad directa e inversa en los casos disponibles); como variables adicionales, se han incluido el número de accidentes con víctimas, los fallecidos y heridos graves, índices de peligrosidad, índices de mortalidad y exposición al riesgo. Los trabajos desarrollados para explicar la presencia de Tramos Blancos en la red de autopistas de peaje han permitido establecer las diferencias entre los valores medios de las variables de tráfico y diseño geométrico en Tramos Blancos respecto a tramos no blancos y comprobar que estas diferencias son significativas. Así mismo, se ha podido calibrar un modelo de regresión logística que explica parcialmente la existencia de Tramos Blancos, para rangos de tráfico inferiores a 10.000 vehículos diarios y para tráficos entre 10.000 y 15.000 vehículos diarios. Para el primer grupo (menos de 10.000 vehículos al día), las variables que han demostrado tener una mayor influencia en la existencia de Tramo Blanco son la velocidad media de circulación, el ancho de carril, el ancho de arcén izquierdo y el porcentaje de vehículos pesados. Para el segundo grupo (entre 10.000 y 15.000 vehículos al día), las variables independientes más influyentes en la existencia de Tramo Blanco han sido la velocidad de circulación, el ancho de calzada y el porcentaje de vehículos pesados. En el caso de las carreteras convencionales, los diferentes análisis realizados no han permitido identificar un modelo que consiga una buena clasificación de los Tramos Blancos. Aun así, se puede afirmar que los valores medios de las variables de intensidad de tráfico, radio, visibilidad, peralte y pendiente presentan diferencias significativas en los Tramos Blancos respecto a los no blancos, que varían en función de la intensidad de tráfico. Los resultados obtenidos deben considerarse como la conclusión de un análisis preliminar, dado que existen otros parámetros, tanto de diseño de la vía como de la circulación, el entorno, el factor humano o el vehículo que podrían tener una influencia en el hecho que se analiza, y no se han considerado por no disponer de esta información. En esta misma línea, el análisis de las circunstancias que rodean al viaje que el usuario de la vía realiza, su tipología y motivación es una fuente de información de interés de la que no se tienen datos y que permitiría mejorar el análisis de accidentalidad en general, y en particular el de esta investigación. Adicionalmente, se reconocen limitaciones en el desarrollo de esta investigación, en las que sería preciso profundizar en el futuro, reconociendo así nuevas líneas de investigación de interés. The traditional approach to road accidents analysis has been based in the use of palliative tools, such as black spot (or road sections) identification and management, or preventive tools, such as road safety audits and inspections. This thesis shows a complementary approach to the existing tools, from a new perspective: the consideration of road sections where no accidents have occurred; these are the so-called White Road Sections. The aim of this thesis is to show that there are certain design parameters and traffic characteristics which, under similar circumstances for roads, have influence in the fact that accidents occur, in addition to the main factor, which is the risk exposure, and others. White Road Sections, defined as road sections of a representative length, where no fatal accidents or accidents involving serious injured have happened during a long period of time, should not be a product of randomness of accidents; on the contrary, they might be the consequence of a confluence of specific parameters of road geometry, traffic volumes and heavy vehicles traffic volumes. For this research, the toll motorway network and single-carriageway network of the Spanish National Road Network have been considered, which is a total of 17.000 kilometers; fatal accidents and those involving serious injured from the period 2006-2010 have been considered (a total number of 10.000 accidents). The road network covered means 65% of the total length of the National Road Network, which allocates 33% of traffic volume; 47% of accidents with victims and 60% of fatalities happened in these road networks during 2013. During the research, a database of 250.130 registers and more than 3.5 million data for toll motorways and 935.042 registers and more than 14 million data for single carriageways of the National Road Network was developed. Both toll motorways and single-carriageways have been classified according to their traffic characteristics, so that the analysis is performed over roads with similar risk exposure. For each road type, a reference length for White Road Section has been defined, as the 95 percentile of all road sections lengths without accidents (with fatalities or serious injured) for 2006-2010. For toll motorways, this reference length concluded to be 14.5 kilometers, while for single-carriageways, it was defined as 7.75 kilometers. A detailed database was developed for each type of road, including the variable “existence of White Road Section”, as well as variables of traffic (average daily traffic volume, heavy vehicles average daily traffic and percentage of heavy vehicles from the total traffic volume), average speed and geometry variables (number of lanes, width of lane, width of shoulders, carriageway width, platform width, radius, superelevation, slope and visibility); additional variables, such as number of accidents with victims, number of fatalities or serious injured, risk and fatality rates and risk exposure, have also been included. Research conducted for the explanation of the presence of White Road Sections in the toll motorway network have shown statistically significant differences in the average values of variables of traffic and geometric design in White Road Sections compared with other road sections. In addition, a binary logistic model for the partial explanation of the presence of White Road Sections was developed, for traffic volumes lower than 10.000 daily vehicles and for those running from 10.000 to 15.000 daily vehicles. For the first group, the most influent variables for the presence of White Road Sections were the average speed, width of lane, width of left shoulder and percentage of heavy vehicles. For the second group, the most influent variables were found to be average speed, carriageway width and percentage of heavy vehicles. For single-carriageways, the different analysis developed did not reach a proper model for the explanation of White Road Sections. However, it can be assumed that the average values of the variables of traffic volume, radius, visibility, superelevation and slope show significant differences in White Road Sections if compared with others, which also vary with traffic volumes. Results obtained should be considered as a conclusion of a preliminary analysis, as there are other parameters, not only design-related, but also regarding traffic, environment, human factor and vehicle which could have an influence in the fact under research, but this information has not been considered in the analysis, as it was not available. In parallel, the analysis of the circumstances around the trip, including its typology and motivation is an interesting source of information, from which data are not available; the availability of this information would be useful for the improvement of accident analysis, in general, and for this research work, in particular. In addition, there are some limitations in the development of the research work; it would be necessary to develop an in-depth analysis in the future, thus assuming new research lines of interest.

Terremoto 2010 en Chile y vivienda social: resultados y aprendizajes para recomendación de políticas públicas

El territorio chileno esta propenso, desde antes que se constituyera como nación, al impacto del comportamiento de la naturaleza que le es inherente y que también le produce daños. Está representado en los seísmos, los más dañinos. Todavía, la sociedad chilena no termina de comprender que esos daños, son parte de un desequilibrio de una convivencia armoniosa entre ella y esa naturaleza, puesto que el ser humano que vive y habita sobre ella, también lo es. Así entonces, cada vez que el territorio y su espacio son remecidos por los seísmos, la naturaleza, manifestada en la sociedad, adquiere nuevos aprendizajes para mejorar la respuesta al próximo evento. El terremoto 2010 de 8.8° Richter, fue el segundo de mayor magnitud después del otro que hasta ahora, es el más grande del planeta, y que pudo ser medido. Aquel, fue el terremoto de Valdivia de 9,5° Richter, ocurrido el 22 de mayo de 1960. Las sociedades no son estáticas, cambian, son dinámicas. Esta vez el seísmo del 2010, ocurrió en una sociedad que hace ya 35 años, adoptó un modelo de economía de libre mercado. La pobreza que tenía a 1990, era de aproximadamente, un 40%. La del 2010, de un 14%. Durante la dictadura militar hubo otro seísmo de 7,8° Richter, recién instalándose el modelo aludido. El del 2010, permite sacar conclusiones en el contexto de este modelo económico. Los resultados aparentemente son interesantes en cuanto a que hubo pocas víctimas pero por otra parte, hubo un gran daño económico. La tesis profundiza en el impacto del seísmo en la dimensión del parque habitacional construido y de la vivienda social y en los habitantes más pobres y vulnerables. Es la primera investigación sobre seísmos y vivienda social en Chile. Se asume la hipótesis que ciertas variables por una parte, y una cultura antisísmica por otra, están presentes y han penetrado en los sectores populares durante los últimos 50 años y que ello, podría estar en la base de los resultados obtenidos. Se plantea una suerte de “matrimonio bien avenido” entre el habitante y políticas públicas en vivienda. De ello, se derivan recomendaciones para mejorar los avances en el problema investigado que se contextualizan en referencia al marco teórico elaborado. Sin embargo, y no obstante lo investigado, lo ya avanzado no garantiza buenos resultados en el próximo evento, Por ello, los aprendizajes nutren a otros, nuevos, que acompañarán a la sociedad chilena en su esencia e identidad como nación. ABSTRACT Long before its establishment as an independent nation, the Chilean territory has been prone to the impact of nature, which is an inherent and damaging feature of this land. Such an impact is represented by earthquakes, which are regarded as the most damaging natural disasters. Today, the Chilean society is still unable to understand that these impacts are part of an unbalanced coexistence between individuals and nature since human beings, who live and inhabit this space, are also an element of nature. Therefore, each time this territory is hit by earthquakes, nature —represented by society— learns new lessons in order to provide a better response to future events. The 2010 earthquake, which rated 8.8 on the Richter scale, was the second largest earthquake after the most powerful earthquake ever recorded. Such an event was the Valdivia earthquake of May 22, 1960, which rated 9.5 on the Richter scale. Societies are not static as they are changing and dynamic. The 2010 earthquake took place within a context in which society operated under a free market economy model that had been running for 35 years. As of 1990, 40 per cent of the population lived in poverty; in 2010, such a figure was reduced to 14 per cent. Likewise, a magnitude 7.8 quake struck the country during the military regime period in the early days of the above model. The 2010 earthquake allows us to draw some conclusions within the context of this economic model. Results are interesting since there were few fatalities but significant economic loss. This thesis provides insights into the impact of the 2010 earthquake on the housing stock, social housing and those living in poverty and vulnerability. This is the first research on earthquakes and social housing conducted in Chile. The hypothesis is that certain variables and anti-seismic culture have permeated popular segments of the population over the last 50 years. The latter may be at the basis of the results obtained during this research. Likewise, this study proposes a certain “happy marriage” between the inhabitant and public policies on housing. The above offers some recommendations intended to further explore this issue; these suggestions are contextualized according to the theoretical framework developed in this research. However, current progress on this matter does not ensure positive results in the event of an earthquake. This is why these lessons will serve as models for future events, which are intrinsically tied to local society and Chilean identity.