Uniformly Reweighted Belief Propagation: A Factor Graph Approach

Tree-reweighted belief propagation is a message passing method that has certain advantages compared to traditional belief propagation (BP). However, it fails to outperform BP in a consistent manner, does not lend itself well to distributed implementation, and has not been applied to distributions with higher-order interactions. We propose a method called uniformly-reweighted belief propagation that mitigates these drawbacks. After having shown in previous works that this method can substantially outperform BP in distributed inference with pairwise interaction models, in this paper we extend it to higher-order interactions and apply it to LDPC decoding, leading performance gains over BP.

Mathematical models for the arrangement and the cleaning of the river basin and surroundings of the river sandy grounds to its passage by the city of Salta (Argentina)

The province of Salta is located the Northwest of Argentina in the border with Bolivia, Chile and Paraguay. Its Capital is the city of Salta that concentrates half of the inhabitants of the province and has grown to 600000 hab., from a small active Spanish town well founded in 1583. The city is crossed by the Arenales River descending from close mountains at North, source of water and end of sewers. But with actual growing it has become a focus of infection and of remarkable unhealthiness. It is necessary to undertake a plan for the recovery of the river, directed to the attainment of the well-being and to improve the life?s quality of the Community. The fundamental idea of the plan is to obtain an ordering of the river basin and an integral management of the channel and its surroundings, including the cleaning out. The improvement of the water?s quality, the healthiness of the surroundings and the improvement of the environment, must go hand by hand with the development of sport activities, of relaxation, tourism, establishment of breeding grounds, kitchen gardens, micro enterprises with clean production and other actions that contribute to their benefit by the society, that being a basic factor for their care and sustainable use. The present pollution is organic, chemical, industrial, domestic, due to the disposition of sweepings and sewer effluents that affects not only the flora and small fauna, destroying the biodiversity, but also to the health of people living in their margins. Within the plan it will be necessary to consider, besides hydric and environmental cleaning and the prevention of floods, the planning of the extraction of aggregates, the infrastructure and consolidation of margins works and the arrangement of all the river basin. It will be necessary to consider the public intervention at state, provincial and local level, and the private intervention. In the model it has been necessary to include the sub-model corresponding to the election of the entity to be the optimal instrument to reach the proposed objectives, giving an answer to the social, environmental and economic requirements. For that the authors have used multi-criteria decision methods to qualify and select alternatives, and for the programming of their implementation. In the model the authors have contemplated the short, average and long term actions. They conform a Paretooptimal alternative which secures the ordering, integral and suitable management of the basin of the Arenales River, focusing on its passage by the city of Salta.

Impact attribution models to evaluate drought effects: economic impacts, risk analyses and management strategies in Spain and Chile

La sequía es un fenómeno natural que se origina por el descenso de las precipitaciones con respecto a una media, y que resulta en la disponibilidad insuficiente de agua para alguna actividad. La creciente presión que se ha venido ejerciendo sobre los recursos hídricos ha hecho que los impactos de la sequía se hayan visto agravados a la vez que ha desencadenado situaciones de escasez de agua en muchas partes del planeta. Los países con clima mediterráneo son especialmente vulnerables a las sequías, y, su crecimiento económico dependiente del agua da lugar a impactos importantes. Para reducir los impactos de la sequía es necesaria una reducción de la vulnerabilidad a las sequías que viene dada por una gestión más eficiente y por una mejor preparación. Para ello es muy importante disponer de información acerca de los impactos y el alcance de este fenómeno natural. Esta investigación trata de abarcar el tema de los impactos de las sequías, de manera que plantea todos los tipos de impactos que pueden darse y además compara sus efectos en dos países (España y Chile). Para ello se proponen modelos de atribución de impactos que sean capaces de medir las pérdidas económicas causadas por la falta de agua. Los modelos propuestos tienen una base econométrica en la que se incluyen variables clave a la hora de evaluar los impactos como es una variable relacionada con la disponibilidad de agua, y otras de otra naturaleza para distinguir los efectos causados por otras fuentes de variación. Estos modelos se adaptan según la fase del estudio en la que nos encontremos. En primer lugar se miden los impactos directos sobre el regadío y se introduce en el modelo un factor de aleatoriedad para evaluar el riesgo económico de sequía. Esto se hace a dos niveles geográficos (provincial y de Unidad de Demanda Agraria) y además en el último se introduce no solo el riesgo de oferta sino también el riesgo de demanda de agua. La introducción de la perspectiva de riesgo en el modelo da lugar a una herramienta de gestión del riesgo económico que puede ser utilizada para estrategias de planificación. Más adelante una extensión del modelo econométrico se desarrolla para medir los impactos en el sector agrario (impactos directos sobre el regadío y el secano e impactos indirectos sobre la Agro Industria) para ello se adapta el modelo y se calculan elasticidades concatenadas entre la falta de agua y los impactos secundarios. Por último se plantea un modelo econométrico para el caso de estudio en Chile y se evalúa el impacto de las sequías debidas al fenómeno de La Niña. iv Los resultados en general muestran el valor que brinda el conocimiento más preciso acerca de los impactos, ya que en muchas ocasiones se tiende a sobreestimar los daños realmente producidos por la falta de agua. Los impactos indirectos de la sequía confirman su alcance a la vez que son amortiguados a medida que nos acercamos al ámbito macroeconómico. En el caso de Chile, su diferente gestión muestra el papel que juegan el fenómeno de El Niño y La Niña sobre los precios de los principales cultivos del país y sobre el crecimiento del sector. Para reducir las pérdidas y su alcance se deben plantear más medidas de mitigación que centren su esfuerzo en una gestión eficiente del recurso. Además la prevención debe jugar un papel muy importante para reducir los riesgos que pueden sufrirse ante situaciones de escasez. ABSTRACT Drought is a natural phenomenon that originates by the decrease in rainfall in comparison to the average, and that results in water shortages for some activities. The increasing pressure on water resources has augmented the impact of droughts just as water scarcity has become an additional problem in many parts of the planet. Countries with Mediterranean climate are especially vulnerable to drought, and its waterdependent economic growth leads to significant impacts. To reduce the negative impacts it is necessary to deal with drought vulnerability, and to achieve this objective a more efficient management is needed. The availability of information about the impacts and the scope of droughts become highly important. This research attempts to encompass the issue of drought impacts, and therefore it characterizes all impact types that may occur and also compares its effects in two different countries (Spain and Chile). Impact attribution models are proposed in order to measure the economic losses caused by the lack of water. The proposed models are based on econometric approaches and they include key variables for measuring the impacts. Variables related to water availability, crop prices or time trends are included to be able to distinguish the effects caused by any of the possible sources. These models are adapted for each of the parts of the study. First, the direct impacts on irrigation are measured and a source of variability is introduced into the model to assess the economic risk of drought. This is performed at two geographic levels provincial and Agricultural Demand Unit. In the latter, not only the supply risk is considered but also the water demand risk side. The introduction of the risk perspective into the model results in a risk management tool that can be used for planning strategies. Then an extension of the econometric model is developed to measure the impacts on the agricultural sector (direct impacts on irrigated and rainfed productions and indirect impacts on the Agri-food Industry). For this aim the model is adapted and concatenated elasticities between the lack of water and the impacts are estimated. Finally an econometric model is proposed for the Chilean case study to evaluate the impact of droughts, especially caused by El Niño Southern Oscillation. The overall results show the value of knowing better about the precise impacts that often tend to be overestimated. The models allow for measuring accurate impacts due to the lack of water. Indirect impacts of drought confirm their scope while they confirm also its dilution as we approach the macroeconomic variables. In the case of Chile, different management strategies of the country show the role of ENSO phenomena on main crop prices and on economic trends. More mitigation measures focused on efficient resource management are necessary to reduce drought losses. Besides prevention must play an important role to reduce the risks that may be suffered due to shortages.

Distributed static linear Gaussian models using consensus

Algorithms for distributed agreement are a powerful means for formulating distributed versions of existing centralized algorithms. We present a toolkit for this task and show how it can be used systematically to design fully distributed algorithms for static linear Gaussian models, including principal component analysis, factor analysis, and probabilistic principal component analysis. These algorithms do not rely on a fusion center, require only low-volume local (1-hop neighborhood) communications, and are thus efficient, scalable, and robust. We show how they are also guaranteed to asymptotically converge to the same solution as the corresponding existing centralized algorithms. Finally, we illustrate the functioning of our algorithms on two examples, and examine the inherent cost-performance tradeoff.

Fracture strength of drilled wafers: study of the stress concentration factor and determination of the weibull distribution of the fracture stress

In the photovoltaic field, the back contact solar cells technology has appeared as an alternative to the traditional silicon modules. This new type of cells places both positive and negative contacts on the back side of the cells maximizing the exposed surface to the light and making easier the interconnection of the cells in the module. The Emitter Wrap-Through solar cell structure presents thousands of tiny holes to wrap the emitter from the front surface to the rear surface. These holes are made in a first step over the silicon wafers by means of a laser drilling process. This step is quite harmful from a mechanical point of view since holes act as stress concentrators leading to a reduction in the strength of these wafers. This paper presents the results of the strength characterization of drilled wafers. The study is carried out testing the samples with the ring on ring device. Finite Element models are developed to simulate the tests. The stress concentration factor of the drilled wafers under this load conditions is determined from the FE analysis. Moreover, the material strength is characterized fitting the fracture stress of the samples to a three-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function. The parameters obtained are compared with the ones obtained in the analysis of a set of samples without holes to validate the method employed for the study of the strength of silicon drilled wafers.

Characterization of ICT-based business models of social enterprises

In recent years new models for organizations working on overty alleviation have emerged. One of them, the social enterprise, has attracted the attention of both academics and practitioners all over the world. Even if defined in different ways depending on the context, social enterprise has an enormous potential to generate social benefits and to promote local agency and private initiative in poverty alleviation. In this sense, it is fitting to highlight the importance of identifying the main standards that permit the characterization of diverse social enterprises, in order to understand their main specificities and guarantee value generation for low-income populations. Another crucial factor is understanding innovation as a critical factor in promoting social enterprises. A powerful tool to enhance the impact and application of this model is Information and Communication Technologies. In the 21st century,these tools allow users to find new ways of collaboration, new sustainable business models and a cost-effective way of scaling-up initiatives. This paper, a product of the collaborative research between the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid and the Universidade Federal Fluminense, examines different business models for social enterprises and the role that ICT can play in scale and impact of these initiatives

Continuum models of the mechanical behavior of rolled and die-cast magnesium alloys

En los últimos años ha habido una fuerte tendencia a disminuir las emisiones de CO2 y su negativo impacto medioambiental. En la industria del transporte, reducir el peso de los vehículos aparece como la mejor opción para alcanzar este objetivo. Las aleaciones de Mg constituyen un material con gran potencial para el ahorro de peso. Durante la última década se han realizado muchos esfuerzos encaminados a entender los mecanismos de deformación que gobiernan la plasticidad de estos materiales y así, las aleaciones de Mg de colada inyectadas a alta presión y forjadas son todavía objeto de intensas campañas de investigación. Es ahora necesario desarrollar modelos que contemplen la complejidad inherente de los procesos de deformación de éstos. Esta tesis doctoral constituye un intento de entender mejor la relación entre la microestructura y el comportamiento mecánico de aleaciones de Mg, y dará como resultado modelos de policristales capaces de predecir propiedades macro- y microscópicas. La deformación plástica de las aleaciones de Mg está gobernada por una combinación de mecanismos de deformación característicos de la estructura cristalina hexagonal, que incluye el deslizamiento cristalográfico en planos basales, prismáticos y piramidales, así como el maclado. Las aleaciones de Mg de forja presentan texturas fuertes y por tanto los mecanismos de deformación activos dependen de la orientación de la carga aplicada. En este trabajo se ha desarrollado un modelo de plasticidad cristalina por elementos finitos con el objetivo de entender el comportamiento macro- y micromecánico de la aleación de Mg laminada AZ31 (Mg-3wt.%Al-1wt.%Zn). Este modelo, que incorpora el maclado y tiene en cuenta el endurecimiento por deformación debido a las interacciones dislocación-dislocación, dislocación-macla y macla-macla, predice exitosamente las actividades de los distintos mecanismos de deformación y la evolución de la textura con la deformación. Además, se ha llevado a cabo un estudio que combina difracción de electrones retrodispersados en tres dimensiones y modelización para investigar el efecto de los límites de grano en la propagación del maclado en el mismo material. Ambos, experimentos y simulaciones, confirman que el ángulo de desorientación tiene una influencia decisiva en la propagación del maclado. Se ha observado que los efectos no-Schmid, esto es, eventos de deformación plástica que no cumplen la ley de Schmid con respecto a la carga aplicada, no tienen lugar en la vecindad de los límites de baja desorientación y se hacen más frecuentes a medida que la desorientación aumenta. Esta investigación también prueba que la morfología de las maclas está altamente influenciada por su factor de Schmid. Es conocido que los procesos de colada suelen dar lugar a la formación de microestructuras con una microporosidad elevada, lo cuál afecta negativamente a sus propiedades mecánicas. La aplicación de presión hidrostática después de la colada puede reducir la porosidad y mejorar las propiedades aunque es poco conocido su efecto en el tamaño y morfología de los poros. En este trabajo se ha utilizado un enfoque mixto experimentalcomputacional, basado en tomografía de rayos X, análisis de imagen y análisis por elementos finitos, para la determinación de la distribución tridimensional (3D) de la porosidad y de la evolución de ésta con la presión hidrostática en la aleación de Mg AZ91 (Mg- 9wt.%Al-1wt.%Zn) colada por inyección a alta presión. La distribución real de los poros en 3D obtenida por tomografía se utilizó como input para las simulaciones por elementos finitos. Los resultados revelan que la aplicación de presión tiene una influencia significativa tanto en el cambio de volumen como en el cambio de forma de los poros que han sido cuantificados con precisión. Se ha observado que la reducción del tamaño de éstos está íntimamente ligada con su volumen inicial. En conclusión, el modelo de plasticidad cristalina propuesto en este trabajo describe con éxito los mecanismos intrínsecos de la deformación de las aleaciones de Mg a escalas meso- y microscópica. Más especificamente, es capaz de capturar las activadades del deslizamiento cristalográfico y maclado, sus interacciones, así como los efectos en la porosidad derivados de los procesos de colada. ---ABSTRACT--- The last few years have seen a growing effort to reduce CO2 emissions and their negative environmental impact. In the transport industry more specifically, vehicle weight reduction appears as the most straightforward option to achieve this objective. To this end, Mg alloys constitute a significant weight saving material alternative. Many efforts have been devoted over the last decade to understand the main mechanisms governing the plasticity of these materials and, despite being already widely used, high pressure die-casting and wrought Mg alloys are still the subject of intense research campaigns. Developing models that can contemplate the complexity inherent to the deformation of Mg alloys is now timely. This PhD thesis constitutes an attempt to better understand the relationship between the microstructure and the mechanical behavior of Mg alloys, as it will result in the design of polycrystalline models that successfully predict macro- and microscopic properties. Plastic deformation of Mg alloys is driven by a combination of deformation mechanisms specific to their hexagonal crystal structure, namely, basal, prismatic and pyramidal dislocation slip as well as twinning. Wrought Mg alloys present strong textures and thus specific deformation mechanisms are preferentially activated depending on the orientation of the applied load. In this work a crystal plasticity finite element model has been developed in order to understand the macro- and micromechanical behavior of a rolled Mg AZ31 alloy (Mg-3wt.%Al-1wt.%Zn). The model includes twinning and accounts for slip-slip, slip-twin and twin-twin hardening interactions. Upon calibration and validation against experiments, the model successfully predicts the activity of the various deformation mechanisms and the evolution of the texture at different deformation stages. Furthermore, a combined three-dimensional electron backscatter diffraction and modeling approach has been adopted to investigate the effect of grain boundaries on twin propagation in the same material. Both experiments and simulations confirm that the misorientation angle has a critical influence on twin propagation. Non-Schmid effects, i.e. plastic deformation events that do not comply with the Schmid law with respect to the applied stress, are absent in the vicinity of low misorientation boundaries and become more abundant as misorientation angle increases. This research also proves that twin morphology is highly influenced by the Schmid factor. Finally, casting processes usually lead to the formation of significant amounts of gas and shrinkage microporosity, which adversely affect the mechanical properties. The application of hydrostatic pressure after casting can reduce the porosity and improve the properties but little is known about the effects on the casting’s pores size and morphology. In this work, an experimental-computational approach based on X-ray computed tomography, image analysis and finite element analysis is utilized for the determination of the 3D porosity distribution and its evolution with hydrostatic pressure in a high pressure diecast Mg AZ91 alloy (Mg-9wt.%Al-1wt.%Zn). The real 3D pore distribution obtained by tomography is used as input for the finite element simulations using an isotropic hardening law. The model is calibrated and validated against experimental stress-strain curves. The results reveal that the pressure treatment has a significant influence both on the volume and shape changes of individuals pores, which have been precisely quantified, and which are found to be related to the initial pore volume. In conclusion, the crystal plasticity model proposed in this work successfully describes the intrinsic deformation mechanisms of Mg alloys both at the mesoscale and the microscale. More specifically, it can capture slip and twin activities, their interactions, as well as the potential porosity effects arising from casting processes.

How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?

Comments This article is a U.S. government work, and is not subject to copyright in the United States. Abstract Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly 0.5 Mg ha 1 per °C. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 lmol mol 1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.

A dynamic factor model for mid-term forecasting of wind power generation

The main objective of this paper is the development and application of multivariate time series models for forecasting aggregated wind power production in a country or region. Nowadays, in Spain, Denmark or Germany there is an increasing penetration of this kind of renewable energy, somehow to reduce energy dependence on the exterior, but always linked with the increaseand uncertainty affecting the prices of fossil fuels. The disposal of accurate predictions of wind power generation is a crucial task both for the System Operator as well as for all the agents of the Market. However, the vast majority of works rarely onsider forecasting horizons longer than 48 hours, although they are of interest for the system planning and operation. In this paper we use Dynamic Factor Analysis, adapting and modifying it conveniently, to reach our aim: the computation of accurate forecasts for the aggregated wind power production in a country for a forecasting horizon as long as possible, particularly up to 60 days (2 months). We illustrate this methodology and the results obtained for real data in the leading country in wind power production: Denmark

Visual attention and perception models for assessing quality in 2D and 3D stereoscopic video

La medida de calidad de vídeo sigue siendo necesaria para definir los criterios que caracterizan una señal que cumpla los requisitos de visionado impuestos por el usuario. Las nuevas tecnologías, como el vídeo 3D estereoscópico o formatos más allá de la alta definición, imponen nuevos criterios que deben ser analizadas para obtener la mayor satisfacción posible del usuario. Entre los problemas detectados durante el desarrollo de esta tesis doctoral se han determinado fenómenos que afectan a distintas fases de la cadena de producción audiovisual y tipo de contenido variado. En primer lugar, el proceso de generación de contenidos debe encontrarse controlado mediante parámetros que eviten que se produzca el disconfort visual y, consecuentemente, fatiga visual, especialmente en lo relativo a contenidos de 3D estereoscópico, tanto de animación como de acción real. Por otro lado, la medida de calidad relativa a la fase de compresión de vídeo emplea métricas que en ocasiones no se encuentran adaptadas a la percepción del usuario. El empleo de modelos psicovisuales y diagramas de atención visual permitirían ponderar las áreas de la imagen de manera que se preste mayor importancia a los píxeles que el usuario enfocará con mayor probabilidad. Estos dos bloques se relacionan a través de la definición del término saliencia. Saliencia es la capacidad del sistema visual para caracterizar una imagen visualizada ponderando las áreas que más atractivas resultan al ojo humano. La saliencia en generación de contenidos estereoscópicos se refiere principalmente a la profundidad simulada mediante la ilusión óptica, medida en términos de distancia del objeto virtual al ojo humano. Sin embargo, en vídeo bidimensional, la saliencia no se basa en la profundidad, sino en otros elementos adicionales, como el movimiento, el nivel de detalle, la posición de los píxeles o la aparición de caras, que serán los factores básicos que compondrán el modelo de atención visual desarrollado. Con el objetivo de detectar las características de una secuencia de vídeo estereoscópico que, con mayor probabilidad, pueden generar disconfort visual, se consultó la extensa literatura relativa a este tema y se realizaron unas pruebas subjetivas preliminares con usuarios. De esta forma, se llegó a la conclusión de que se producía disconfort en los casos en que se producía un cambio abrupto en la distribución de profundidades simuladas de la imagen, aparte de otras degradaciones como la denominada “violación de ventana”. A través de nuevas pruebas subjetivas centradas en analizar estos efectos con diferentes distribuciones de profundidades, se trataron de concretar los parámetros que definían esta imagen. Los resultados de las pruebas demuestran que los cambios abruptos en imágenes se producen en entornos con movimientos y disparidades negativas elevadas que producen interferencias en los procesos de acomodación y vergencia del ojo humano, así como una necesidad en el aumento de los tiempos de enfoque del cristalino. En la mejora de las métricas de calidad a través de modelos que se adaptan al sistema visual humano, se realizaron también pruebas subjetivas que ayudaron a determinar la importancia de cada uno de los factores a la hora de enmascarar una determinada degradación. Los resultados demuestran una ligera mejora en los resultados obtenidos al aplicar máscaras de ponderación y atención visual, los cuales aproximan los parámetros de calidad objetiva a la respuesta del ojo humano. ABSTRACT Video quality assessment is still a necessary tool for defining the criteria to characterize a signal with the viewing requirements imposed by the final user. New technologies, such as 3D stereoscopic video and formats of HD and beyond HD oblige to develop new analysis of video features for obtaining the highest user’s satisfaction. Among the problems detected during the process of this doctoral thesis, it has been determined that some phenomena affect to different phases in the audiovisual production chain, apart from the type of content. On first instance, the generation of contents process should be enough controlled through parameters that avoid the occurrence of visual discomfort in observer’s eye, and consequently, visual fatigue. It is especially necessary controlling sequences of stereoscopic 3D, with both animation and live-action contents. On the other hand, video quality assessment, related to compression processes, should be improved because some objective metrics are adapted to user’s perception. The use of psychovisual models and visual attention diagrams allow the weighting of image regions of interest, giving more importance to the areas which the user will focus most probably. These two work fields are related together through the definition of the term saliency. Saliency is the capacity of human visual system for characterizing an image, highlighting the areas which result more attractive to the human eye. Saliency in generation of 3DTV contents refers mainly to the simulated depth of the optic illusion, i.e. the distance from the virtual object to the human eye. On the other hand, saliency is not based on virtual depth, but on other features, such as motion, level of detail, position of pixels in the frame or face detection, which are the basic features that are part of the developed visual attention model, as demonstrated with tests. Extensive literature involving visual comfort assessment was looked up, and the development of new preliminary subjective assessment with users was performed, in order to detect the features that increase the probability of discomfort to occur. With this methodology, the conclusions drawn confirmed that one common source of visual discomfort was when an abrupt change of disparity happened in video transitions, apart from other degradations, such as window violation. New quality assessment was performed to quantify the distribution of disparities over different sequences. The results confirmed that abrupt changes in negative parallax environment produce accommodation-vergence mismatches derived from the increasing time for human crystalline to focus the virtual objects. On the other side, for developing metrics that adapt to human visual system, additional subjective tests were developed to determine the importance of each factor, which masks a concrete distortion. Results demonstrated slight improvement after applying visual attention to objective metrics. This process of weighing pixels approximates the quality results to human eye’s response.