Service needs forecasting: an approach for the automotive industry using analogies with medical ER management models.

During the past years, the industry has shifted position and moved towards “the luxury universe” whose customers are demanding, treating individuals as unique and valued customer for the business, offering vehicles produced with the state of the art technologies and implementing the highest finishing standards. Due to the competitive level in the market, car makers enable processes which equalizes customer services to E.R. management, being dealt with the maximum urgency that allows the comparison between both, car workshops and emergency rooms, where workshop bays or ramps will be equal to emergency boxes and skilled technicians are equivalent to the health care specialist, who will carry out tests and checks prior to afford any final operation, keeping the “patient” under control before it is back to normal utilization. This paper establishes a valid model for the automotive industry to estimate customer service demand forecasting under variable demand conditions using analogies with patient demand models used for the medical ER.

SERVICE NEEDS FORECASTING: An Approach for the Motor Industry Using Analogies with Medical ER Management Models.

During the past years, the industry has shifted position and moved towards “the luxury universe” whose customers are demanding, treating individuals as unique and valued customer for the business, offering vehicles produced with the state of the art technologies and implementing the highest finishing standards. Due to the competitive level in the market, motor makers enable processes which equalizes customer services to E.R. management, being dealt with the maximum urgency that allows the comparison between both, car workshops and emergency rooms, where workshop bays or ramps will be equal to emergency boxes and skilled technicians are equivalent to the health care specialist, who will carry out tests and checks prior to afford any final operation, keeping the “patient” under control before it is back to normal utilization. This paper ratify a valid model for the automotive industry to estimate customer service demand forecasting under variable demand conditions using analogies with patient demand models used for the medical ER

Single - and double energy swift and slow heavy ion irradiated optical waveguides in Er: Tungstene-Tellurite glass and BGO for telecom applications

The fabrication of broadband amplifiers in wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) around 1.55 m, as they exhibit large stimulated cross sections and broad emission bandwidth. Bi4Ge3O12 (eultine type BGO) - well known scintillator material, also a rare-earth host material, photorefractive waveguides produced in it only using light ions in the past. Recently: MeV N+ ions and swift O5+ and C5+ ions, too*. Bi12GeO20 (sillenite type BGO) - high photoconductivity and photorefractive sensitivity in the visible and NIR good candidate for real-time holography and optical phase conjugation, photorefractive waveguides produced in it only using light ions. No previous attempts of ion beam fabrication of waveguides in it.

Análisis de la aplicación de Soldadura de acero de calidad "A" mediante láser de Neodimio-YAG en construcción naval

El proceso de soldadura por láser desarrollado en los últimos años ha puesto de manifiesto las posibilidades de aplicación de esta tecnología en diferentes sectores productivos, principalmente en la industria automovilística, en la cual se han demostrado sus ventajas en términos de productividad, eficiencia y calidad. El uso de la tecnología láser, ya sea híbrida o pura, reduce el input térmico al limitar la zona afectada por el calor, sin crear deformaciones y, por tanto, disminuye los re-trabajos post-soldadura necesarios para eliminarlas. Asimismo, se aumenta la velocidad de soldadura, incrementando la productividad y calidad de las uniones. En la última década, el uso de láseres híbridos, (láser + arco) de gran potencia de Neodimio YAG, (Nd: YAG) ha sido cada vez más importante. La instalación de este tipo de fuentes de láser sólido de gran potencia ha sido posible en construcción naval debido a sus ventajas con respecto a las instalaciones de láser de C02 existentes en los astilleros que actualmente utilizan esta tecnología. Los láseres de C02 están caracterizados por su gran potencia y la transmisión del haz a través de espejos. En el caso de las fuentes de Nd:YAG, debido a la longitud de onda a la cual se genera el haz láser, su transmisión pueden ser realizada a través de fibra óptica , haciendo posible la utilización del cabezal láser a gran distancia de la fuente, aparte de la alternativa de integrar el cabezal en unidades robotizadas. El proceso láser distribuye el calor aportado de manera uniforme. Las características mecánicas de dichas uniones ponen de manifiesto la adecuación de la soldadura por láser para su uso en construcción naval, cumpliendo los requerimientos exigidos por las Sociedades de Clasificación. La eficiencia energética de los láseres de C02, con porcentajes superiores al 20%, aparte de las ya estudiadas técnicas de su instalación constituyen las razones por las cuales este tipo de láser es el más usado en el ámbito industrial. El láser de gran potencia de Nd: YAG está presente en el mercado desde hace poco tiempo, y por tanto, su precio es relativamente mayor que el de C02, siendo sus costes de mantenimiento, tanto de lámparas como de diodos necesarios para el bombeo del sólido, igualmente mayores que en el caso del C02. En cambio, el efecto de absorción de parte de la energía en el plasma generado durante el proceso no se produce en el caso del láser de Nd: YAG, utilizando parte de esa energía en estabilizar el arco, siendo necesaria menos potencia de la fuente, reduciendo el coste de la inversión. En función de la aplicación industrial, se deberá realizar el análisis de viabilidad económica correspondiente. Dependiendo de la potencia de la fuente y del tipo de láser utilizado, y por tanto de la longitud de onda a la que se propaga la radiación electromagnética, pueden existen riesgos para la salud. El láser de neodimio se propaga en una longitud de onda, relativamente cercana al rango visible, en la cual se pueden producir daños en los ojos de los operadores. Se deberán establecer las medidas preventivas para evitar los riesgos a los que están expuestos dichos operadores en la utilización de este tipo de energía. La utilización del láser de neodimio: YAG ofrece posibilidades de utilización en construcción naval económicamente rentables, debido su productividad y las buenas características mecánicas de las uniones. Abstract The laser welding process development of the last years shows broad application possibilities in many sectors of industry, mostly in automobile production. The advantages of the laser beam process produce higher productivity, increasing the quality and thermal efficiency. Laser technology, arc-hybrid or pure laser welding, reduces thermal input and thus a smaller heat-affected zone at the work piece. This means less weldment distortion which reduces the amount of subsequent post-weld straightening work that needs to be done. A higher welding speed is achieved by use of the arc and the laser beam, increasing productivity and quality of the joining process. In the last decade use of hybrid technology (laser-GMA hybrid method) with high power sources Nd:YAG lasers, gained in importance. The installation of this type of higher power solid state laser is possible in shipbuilding industrial applications due to its advantages compare with the C02 laser sources installed in the shipyards which use this technology. C02 lasers are characterised by high power output and its beam guidance is via inelastic system of mirrors. In the case of Nd:YAG laser, due to its wavelength, the laser beam can be led by means of a flexible optical fibre even across large distances, which allows three dimensional welding jobs by using of robots. Laser beam welding is a process during which the heat is transferred to the welded material uniformly and the features of the process fulfilled the requirements by Classification Societies. So that, its application to the shipbuilding industry should be possible. The high quantum efficiency of C02 laser, which enabled efficiency factors up to 20%, and relative simple technical possibilities of implementation are the reasons for the fact that it is the most important laser in industrial material machining. High power Nd: YAG laser is established on the market since short time, so that its price is relatively high compared with the C02 laser source and its maintenance cost, lamp or diode pumped solid state laser, is also higher than in the case of C02 lasers. Nevertheless effect of plasma shielding does not exist with Nd:YAG lasers, so that for the gas-shielding welding process the optimal gases can be used regarding arc stability, thus power source are saved and the costs can be optimised. Each industrial application carried out needs its cost efficiency analysis. Depending on the power output and laser type, the dangerousness of reflected irradiation, which even in some meters distance, affects for the healthy operators. For the YAG laser process safety arrangements must be set up in order to avoid the laser radiation being absorbed by the human eye. Due to its wavelength of radiation, being relatively close to the visible range, severe damage to the retina of the eye is possible if sufficient precautions are not taken. Safety aspects are of vital importance to be able to shield the operator as well as other personal. The use of Nd:YAG lasers offers interesting and economically attractive applications in shipbuilding industry. Higher joining rates are possible, and very good mechanical/technological parameters can be achieved.

Service Capacity Reserve under Uncertainty by Hospital’s ER Analogies: A Practical Model for Car Services

We define a capacity reserve model to dimension passenger car service installations according to the demographic distribution of the area to be serviced by using hospital?s emergency room analogies. Usually, service facilities are designed applying empirical methods, but customers arrive under uncertain conditions not included in the original estimations, and there is a gap between customer?s real demand and the service?s capacity. Our research establishes a valid methodology and covers the absence of recent researches and the lack of statistical techniques implementation, integrating demand uncertainty in a unique model built in stages by implementing ARIMA forecasting, queuing theory, and Monte Carlo simulation to optimize the service capacity and occupancy, minimizing the implicit cost of the capacity that must be reserved to service unexpected customers. Our model has proved to be a useful tool for optimal decision making under uncertainty integrating the prediction of the cost implicit in the reserve capacity to serve unexpected demand and defining a set of new process indicators, such us capacity, occupancy, and cost of capacity reserve never studied before. The new indicators are intended to optimize the service operation. This set of new indicators could be implemented in the information systems used in the passenger car services.

Service capacity reserve under uncertainty by hospital's ER's analogies: a practical model for car services

El objetivo de esta investigación consiste en definir un modelo de reserva de capacidad, por analogías con emergencias hospitalarias, que pueda ser implementado en el sector de servicios. Este está específicamente enfocado a su aplicación en talleres de servicio de automóviles. Nuestra investigación incorpora la incertidumbre de la demanda en un modelo singular diseñado en etapas que agrupa técnicas ARIMA, teoría de colas y simulación Monte Carlo para definir los conceptos de capacidad y ocupación de servicio, que serán utilizados para minimizar el coste implícito de la reserva capacidad necesaria para atender a clientes que carecen de cita previa. Habitualmente, las compañías automovilísticas estiman la capacidad de sus instalaciones de servicio empíricamente, pero los clientes pueden llegar bajo condiciones de incertidumbre que no se tienen en cuenta en dichas estimaciones, por lo que existe una diferencia entre lo que el cliente realmente demanda y la capacidad que ofrece el servicio. Nuestro enfoque define una metodología válida para el sector automovilístico que cubre la ausencia genérica de investigaciones recientes y la habitual falta de aplicación de técnicas estadísticas en el sector. La equivalencia con la gestión de urgencias hospitalarias se ha validado a lo largo de la investigación en la se definen nuevos indicadores de proceso (KPIs) Tal y como hacen los hospitales, aplicamos modelos estocásticos para dimensionar las instalaciones de servicio de acuerdo con la distribución demográfica del área de influencia. El modelo final propuesto integra la predicción del coste implícito en la reserva de capacidad para atender la demanda no prevista. Asimismo, se ha desarrollado un código en Matlab que puede integrarse como un módulo adicional a los sistemas de información (DMS) que se usan actualmente en el sector, con el fin de emplear los nuevos indicadores de proceso definidos en el modelo. Los resultados principales del modelo son nuevos indicadores de servicio, tales como la capacidad, ocupación y coste de reserva de capacidad, que nunca antes han sido objeto de estudio en la industria automovilística, y que están orientados a gestionar la operativa del servicio. ABSTRACT Our aim is to define a Capacity Reserve model to be implemented in the service sector by hospital's emergency room (ER) analogies, with a practical approach to passenger car services. A stochastic model has been implemented using R and a Monte Carlo simulation code written in Matlab and has proved a very useful tool for optimal decision making under uncertainty. The research integrates demand uncertainty in a unique model which is built in stages by implementing ARIMA forecasting, Queuing Theory and a Monte Carlo simulation to define the concepts of service capacity and occupancy, minimizing the implicit cost of the capacity that must be reserved to service unexpected customers. Usually, passenger car companies estimate their service facilities capacity using empirical methods, but customers arrive under uncertain conditions not included in the estimations. Thus, there is a gap between customer’s real demand and the dealer’s capacity. This research sets a valid methodology for the passenger car industry to cover the generic absence of recent researches and the generic lack of statistical techniques implementation. The hospital’s emergency room (ER) equalization has been confirmed to be valid for the passenger car industry and new process indicators have been defined to support the study. As hospitals do, we aim to apply stochastic models to dimension installations according to the demographic distribution of the area to be serviced. The proposed model integrates the prediction of the cost implicit in the reserve capacity to serve unexpected demand. The Matlab code could be implemented as part of the existing information technology systems (ITs) to support the existing service management tools, creating a set of new process indicators. Main model outputs are new indicators, such us Capacity, Occupancy and Cost of Capacity Reserve, never studied in the passenger car service industry before, and intended to manage the service operation.