Using Clouds to Scale Grid Resources: An Economic Model

Infrastructure as a Service clouds are a flexible and fast way to obtain (virtual) resources as demand varies. Grids, on the other hand, are middleware platforms able to combine resources from different administrative domains for task execution. Clouds can be used by grids as providers of devices such as virtual machines, so they only use the resources they need. But this requires grids to be able to decide when to allocate and release those resources. Here we introduce and analyze by simulations an economic mechanism (a) to set resource prices and (b) resolve when to scale resources depending on the users’ demand. This system has a strong emphasis on fairness, so no user hinders the execution of other users’ tasks by getting too many resources. Our simulator is based on the well-known GridSim software for grid simulation, which we expand to simulate infrastructure clouds. The results show how the proposed system can successfully adapt the amount of allocated resources to the demand, while at the same time ensuring that resources are fairly shared among users.

An example of integration between en economic and an hydrologic model in the framework of water resource management problems

Growing scarcity, increasing demand and bad management of water resources are causing weighty competition for water and consequently managers are facing more and more pressure in an attempt to satisfy users? requirement. In many regions agriculture is one of the most important users at river basin scale since it concentrates high volumes of water consumption during relatively short periods (irrigation season), with a significant economic, social and environmental impact. The interdisciplinary characteristics of related water resources problems require, as established in the Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC, an integrated and participative approach to water management and assigns an essential role to economic analysis as a decision support tool. For this reason, a methodology is developed to analyse the economic and environmental implications of water resource management under different scenarios, with a focus on the agricultural sector. This research integrates both economic and hydrologic components in modelling, defining scenarios of water resource management with the goal of preventing critical situations, such as droughts. The model follows the Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) approach, an innovative methodology successfully used for agricultural policy analysis in the last decade and also applied in several analyses regarding water use in agriculture. This approach has, among others, the very important capability of perfectly calibrating the baseline scenario using a very limited database. However one important disadvantage is its limited capacity to simulate activities non-observed during the reference period but which could be adopted if the scenario changed. To overcome this problem the classical methodology is extended in order to simulate a more realistic farmers? response to new agricultural policies or modified water availability. In this way an economic model has been developed to reproduce the farmers? behaviour within two irrigation districts in the Tiber High Valley. This economic model is then integrated with SIMBAT, an hydrologic model developed for the Tiber basin which allows to simulate the balance between the water volumes available at the Montedoglio dam and the water volumes required by the various irrigation users.

Supporting decision making under uncertainty: Development of a participatory integrated model for water management in the middle Guadiana river basin.

Following the Integrated Water Resources Management approach, the European Water Framework Directive demands Member States to develop water management plans at the catchment level. Those plans have to integrate the different interests and must be developed with stakeholder participation. To face these requirements, managers need tools to assess the impacts of possible management alternatives on natural and socio-economic systems. These tools should ideally be able to address the complexity and uncertainties of the water system, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation. The objective of our research was to develop a participatory integrated assessment model, based on the combination of a crop model, an economic model and a participatory Bayesian network, with an application in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, in Spain. The methodology is intended to capture the complexity of water management problems, incorporating the relevant sectors, as well as the relevant scales involved in water management decision making. The integrated model has allowed us testing different management, market and climate change scenarios and assessing the impacts of such scenarios on the natural system (crops), on the socio-economic system (farms) and on the environment (water resources). Finally, this integrated assessment modelling process has allowed stakeholder participation, complying with the main requirements of current European water laws.

Providing 30Mbit/s to Spain’s final third. -A techno-economic assessment.

Since the Digital Agenda for Europe released the Europe2020 flagship, Member States are looking for ways of fulfilling their agreed commitments to fast and ultrafast internet deployment. However, Europe is not a homogenous reality. The economic, geographic, social and demographic features of each country make it a highly diverse region to develop best practices over Next Generation Access Networks (NGAN) deployments. There are special concerns about NGAN deployments for “the final third”, as referred to the last 25% of the country’s population who, usually, live in rural areas. This paper assesses, through a techno-economic analysis, the access cost of providing over 30 Mbps broadband for the final third of Spain`s population in municipalities, which are classified into area types, referred to as geotypes. Fixed and mobile technologies are compared in order to determine which is the most cost-effective technology for each geotype. The demographic limit for fixed networks (cable, fibre and copper) is also discussed. The assessment focuses on the supply side and the results show the access network cost only. The research completes a previous published assessment (Techno-economic analysis of next generation access networks roll-out. The case of platform competition, regulation and public policy in Spain) by including the LTE scenario. The LTE scenario is dimensioned to provide 30 Mbps (best effort) broadband, considering a network take-up of 25%. The Rocket techno-economic model is used to assess a ten-year study period deployment. Nevertheless, the deployment must start in 2014 and be completed by 2020, in order to fulfil the Digital Agenda’s goals. The feasibility of the deployment is defined as the ability to recoup the investment at the end of the study period. This ability is highly related to network take-up and, therefore, to service adoption. Network deployment in each geotype is compared with the cost of the deployment in the Urban geotype and broadband expected penetration rates for clarity and simplicity. Debating the cost-effective deployments for each geotype, while addressing the Digital Agenda’s goals regarding fast and ultrafast internet, is the main purpose of this paper. At the end of the last year, the independent Spanish regulation agency released the Spain broadband coverage report at the first half of 2013. This document claimed that 59% and 52% of Spain’s population was already covered by NGAN capable of providing 30 Mbps and 100 Mbps broadband respectively. HFC, with 47% of population coverage, and FTTH, with 14%, were considered as a 100 Mbps capable NGAN. Meanwhile VDSL, with 12% of the population covered, was the only NGAN network considered for the 30 Mbps segment. Despite not being an NGAN, the 99% population coverage of HSPA networks was also noted in the report. Since mobile operators are also required to provide 30 Mbps broadband to 90% of the population in rural areas by the end of 2020, mobile networks will play a significant role on the achievement of the 30 Mbps goal in Spain’s final third. The assessment indicates the cost of the deployment per cumulative households coverage with 4 different NGANs: FTTH, HFC, VDSL and LTE. Research shows that an investment ranging from €2,700 (VDSL) to €5,400 (HFC) million will be needed to cover the first half of the population with any fixed technology assessed. The results state that at least €3,000 million will be required to cover these areas with the least expensive technology (LTE). However, if we consider the throughput that fixed networks could provide and achievement of the Digital Agenda’s objectives, fixed network deployments are recommended for up to 90% of the population. Fibre and cable deployments could cover up to a maximum of 88% of the Spanish population cost efficiently. As there are some concerns about the service adoption, we recommend VDSL and mobile network deployments for the final third of the population. Despite LTE being able to provide the most economical roll-out, VDSL could also provide 50 Mbps from 75% to 90% of the Spanish population cost efficiently. For this population gap, facility based competition between VDSL providers and LTE providers must be encouraged. Regarding 90% to 98.5% of the Spanish population, LTE deployment is the most appropriate. Since costumers in less populated the municipalities are more sensitive to the cost of the service, we consider that a single network deployment could be most appropriate. Finally, it has become clear that it is not possible to deliver 30Mbps to the final 1.5% of the population cost-efficiently and adoption predictions are not optimistic either. As there are other broadband alternatives able to deliver up to 20 Mbps, in the authors’ opinion, it is not necessary to cover the extreme rural areas, where public financing would be required.

Water scarcity and climate change impact and vulnerability in irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean river basins

Actualmente, la escasez de agua constituye un importante problema en muchos lugares del mundo. El crecimiento de la población, la creciente necesidad de alimentos, el desarrollo socio-económico y el cambio climático ejercen una importante y cada vez mayor presión sobre los recursos hídricos, a la que muchos países van a tener que enfrentarse en los próximos anos. La región Mediterránea es una de las regiones del mundo de mayor escasez de recursos hídricos, y es además una de las zonas más vulnerables al cambio climático. La mayoría de estudios sobre cambio climático prevén mayores temperaturas y una disminución de las precipitaciones, y una creciente escasez de agua debida a la disminución de recursos disponibles y al aumento de las demandas de riego. En el contexto actual de desarrollo de políticas se demanda cada vez más una mayor consideración del cambio climático en el marco de las políticas sectoriales. Sin embargo, los estudios enfocados a un solo sector no reflejan las múltiples dimensiones del los efectos del cambio climático. Numerosos estudios científicos han demostrado que el cambio climático es un fenómeno de naturaleza multi-dimensional y cuyos efectos se transmiten a múltiples escalas. Por tanto, es necesaria la producción de estudios y herramientas de análisis capaces de reflejar todas estas dimensiones y que contribuyan a la elaboración de políticas robustas en un contexto de cambio climático. Esta investigación pretende aportar una visión global de la problemática de la escasez de agua y los impactos, la vulnerabilidad y la adaptación al cambio climático en el contexto de la región mediterránea. La investigación presenta un marco integrado de modelización que se va ampliando progresivamente en un proceso secuencial y multi-escalar en el que en cada etapa se incorpora una nueva dimensión. La investigación consta de cuatro etapas que se abordan a lo largo de cuatro capítulos. En primer lugar, se estudia la vulnerabilidad económica de las explotaciones de regadío del Medio Guadiana, en España. Para ello, se utiliza un modelo de programación matemática en combinación con un modelo econométrico. A continuación, en la segunda etapa, se utiliza un modelo hidro-económico que incluye un modelo de cultivo para analizar los procesos que tienen lugar a escala de cultivo, explotación y cuenca teniendo en cuenta distintas escalas geográficas y de toma de decisiones. Esta herramienta permite el análisis de escenarios de cambio climático y la evaluación de posibles medidas de adaptación. La tercera fase consiste en el análisis de las barreras que dificultan la aplicación de procesos de adaptación para lo cual se analizan las redes socio-institucionales en la cuenca. Finalmente, la cuarta etapa aporta una visión sobre la escasez de agua y el cambio climático a escala nacional y regional mediante el estudio de distintos escenarios de futuro plausibles y los posibles efectos de las políticas en la escasez de agua. Para este análisis se utiliza un modelo econométrico de datos de panel para la región mediterránea y un modelo hidro-económico que se aplica a los casos de estudio de España y Jordania. Los resultados del estudio ponen de relieve la importancia de considerar múltiples escalas y múltiples dimensiones en el estudio de la gestión de los recursos hídricos y la adaptación al cambio climático en los contextos mediterráneos de escasez de agua estudiados. Los resultados muestran que los impactos del cambio climático en la cuenca del Guadiana y en el conjunto de España pueden comprometer la sostenibilidad del regadío y de los ecosistemas. El análisis a escala de cuenca hidrográfica resalta la importancia de las interacciones entre los distintos usuarios del agua y en concreto entre distintas comunidades de regantes, así como la necesidad de fortalecer el papel de las instituciones y de fomentar la creación de una visión común en la cuenca para facilitar la aplicación de los procesos de adaptación. Asimismo, los resultados de este trabajo evidencian también la capacidad y el papel fundamental de las políticas para lograr un desarrollo sostenible y la adaptación al cambio climático es regiones de escasez de agua tales como la región mediterránea. Especialmente, este trabajo pone de manifiesto el potencial de la Directiva Marco del Agua de la Unión Europea para lograr una efectiva adaptación al cambio climático. Sin embargo, en Jordania, además de la adaptación al cambio climático, es preciso diseñar estrategias de desarrollo sostenible más ambiciosas que contribuyan a reducir el riesgo futuro de escasez de agua. ABSTRACT Water scarcity is becoming a major concern in many parts of the world. Population growth, increasing needs for food production, socio-economic development and climate change represent pressures on water resources that many countries around the world will have to deal in the coming years. The Mediterranean region is one of the most water scarce regions of the world and is considered a climate change hotspot. Most projections of climate change envisage an increase in temperatures and a decrease in precipitation and a resulting reduction in water resources availability as a consequence of both reduced water availability and increased irrigation demands. Current policy development processes require the integration of climate change concerns into sectoral policies. However, sector-oriented studies often fail to address all the dimensions of climate change implications. Climate change research in the last years has evidenced the need for more integrated studies and methodologies that are capable of addressing the multi-scale and multi-dimensional nature of climate change. This research attempts to provide a comprehensive view of water scarcity and climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in Mediterranean contexts. It presents an integrated modelling framework that is progressively enlarged in a sequential multi-scale process in which a new dimension of climate change and water resources is addressed at every stage. It is comprised of four stages, each one explained in a different chapter. The first stage explores farm-level economic vulnerability in the Spanish Guadiana basin using a mathematical programming model in combination with an econometric model. Then, in a second stage, the use of a hydro-economic modelling framework that includes a crop growth model allows for the analysis of crop, farm and basin level processes taking into account different geographical and decision-making scales. This integrated tool is used for the analysis of climate change scenarios and for the assessment of potential adaptation options. The third stage includes the analysis of barriers to the effective implementation of adaptation processes based on socioinstitutional network analysis. Finally, a regional and country level perspective of water scarcity and climate change is provided focusing on different possible socio-economic development pathways and the effect of policies on future water scarcity. For this analysis, a panel-data econometric model and a hydro-economic model are applied for the analysis of the Mediterranean region and country level case studies in Spain and Jordan. The overall results of the study demonstrate the value of considering multiple scales and multiple dimensions in water management and climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean water scarce contexts analysed. Results show that climate change impacts in the Guadiana basin and in Spain may compromise the sustainability of irrigation systems and ecosystems. The analysis at the basin level highlights the prominent role of interactions between different water users and irrigation districts and the need to strengthen institutional capacity and common understanding in the basin to enhance the implementation of adaptation processes. The results of this research also illustrate the relevance of water policies in achieving sustainable development and climate change adaptation in water scarce areas such as the Mediterranean region. Specifically, the EU Water Framework Directive emerges as a powerful trigger for climate change adaptation. However, in Jordan, outreaching sustainable development strategies are required in addition to climate change adaptation to reduce future risk of water scarcity.

Participatory modelling to support decision making in water management under uncertainty: Two comparative case studies in the Guadiana river basin, Spain.

A participatory modelling process has been conducted in two areas of the Guadiana river (the upper and the middle sub-basins), in Spain, with the aim of providing support for decision making in the water management field. The area has a semi-arid climate where irrigated agriculture plays a key role in the economic development of the region and accounts for around 90% of water use. Following the guidelines of the European Water Framework Directive, we promote stakeholder involvement in water management with the aim to achieve an improved understanding of the water system and to encourage the exchange of knowledge and views between stakeholders in order to help building a shared vision of the system. At the same time, the resulting models, which integrate the different sectors and views, provide some insight of the impacts that different management options and possible future scenarios could have. The methodology is based on a Bayesian network combined with an economic model and, in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, with a crop model. The resulting integrated modelling framework is used to simulate possible water policy, market and climate scenarios to find out the impacts of those scenarios on farm income and on the environment. At the end of the modelling process, an evaluation questionnaire was filled by participants in both sub-basins. Results show that this type of processes are found very helpful by stakeholders to improve the system understanding, to understand each others views and to reduce conflict when it exists. In addition, they found the model an extremely useful tool to support management. The graphical interface, the quantitative output and the explicit representation of uncertainty helped stakeholders to better understand the implications of the scenario tested. Finally, the combination of different types of models was also found very useful, as it allowed exploring in detail specific aspects of the water management problems.

Método de análisis diacrónico para la intervención en el alojamiento con criterios ecológicos. El caso de Madrid 1940–2100

Las evidencias del impacto sobre el medio ambiente asociado al funcionamiento de las ciudades hacen que sea urgente proponer medidas que reduzcan este consumo y mejoren la eficiencia del metabolismo urbano. La existencia de límites en la disponibilidad de recursos materiales y energéticos, plantea actualmente un reto importante al ser humano: ¿son posibles otras formas de organización más adecuadas a esta condición de limitación? Para dar respuesta, resulta fundamental conocer cómo interactuarán nuestros sistemas urbanos en un modelo económico de continuo desarrollo, con la población que alojan, y si podrán adaptarse a la capacidad de carga limitada del Planeta, evitando futuras situaciones de colapso anunciadas desde distintos ámbitos científicos. En ese contexto, la tesis formula un método de análisis del alojamiento que, mediante la evaluación a largo plazo, permita proponer medidas de intervención para reducir el consumo de recursos asociado a su funcionamiento. Se parte de un enfoque ecológico para definir el alojamiento como una parte fundamental del sistema urbano, que está compuesto por tres elementos: habitantes, viviendas y recursos naturales; por tanto, para reducir los impactos asociados al alojamiento es necesario tener en cuenta la diferente naturaleza de estos elementos y el carácter dinámico de las relaciones que se producen entre ellos. La Ecología, a través del estudio de los ecosistemas, ha identificado estrategias de supervivencia y adaptación ante los cambios y perturbaciones. La similitud entre los elementos de un ecosistema (población y soporte) y los del alojamiento (habitantes, viviendas y recursos naturales) permite verificar que la aplicación de estas estrategias al alojamiento puede conducir a situaciones más deseables en la relación de los sistemas urbanos con su entorno A partir de esta hipótesis, se propone un método de análisis diacrónico1 o a largo plazo, para conocer la evolución en el tiempo del alojamiento a través de la cuantificación de una serie de indicadores descriptivos de los habitantes, las viviendas y los recursos naturales. La aplicación de este método a un sistema urbano permitiría conocer las características de los elementos del sistema y, para un ámbito temporal de futuro, prever su evolución, identificar escenarios no deseables y proponer medidas de intervención que corrijan anticipadamente estas situaciones y eviten impactos ambientales innecesarios. La validación del método de análisis se realiza mediante la aplicación al caso de Madrid en periodo retrospectivo (de 1940 a 2010) A partir del estudio de la evolución en Madrid de los indicadores seleccionados, se proponen medidas de intervención en el alojamiento basadas en estrategias ecológicas que habrían conducido a una evolución alternativa con un impacto menor sobre el medio ambiente que la situación actual. El método de análisis se aplica con carácter prospectivo definiendo tres escenarios de futuro para Madrid hasta 2100. Para cada uno de ellos se analiza la evolución previsible de los indicadores y se proponen diferentes medidas de intervención que, desde el punto de vista ecológico, conducirían a una situación más adecuada. La tesis concluye en el interés de este método de análisis diacrónico que permite estimar posibilidades en la evolución futura del alojamiento, identificar las necesidades de recursos para responder a las demandas de los habitantes y, desde un enfoque ecológico, definir, cuantificar y evaluar posibles medidas de intervención que reduzcan los impactos ambientales. El método, por tanto, es una herramienta de interés para la toma de decisiones en la intervención en el alojamiento y en la planificación urbana a largo plazo. ABSTRACT Evidence of the impact on the environment associated with the operation of cities make it urgent to propose measures to reduce energy consumption and improve the efficiency of urban metabolism. The limited availability of materials and energy resources currently poses a significant challenge to human beings: are more appropriate forms of organization for this limitation possible? In response, it is essential to know how our urban systems with the population they host will interact in an economic model of continuous development and whether they can adapt to the limited endurance capacity of the planet, thus avoiding future collapse situations which are being announced from different scientific fields. In this context, the thesis puts forward a method of housing analysis that by a long term assessment will enable to propose intervention measures to reduce resource consumption associated with its operation. The thesis is based on an ecological approach to identify housing as a fundamental part of the urban system, which is composed of three elements: inhabitants, homes and natural resources. Therefore, in order to reduce the impacts associated with housing it is necessary to consider the characteristics of these elements and the dynamic nature of the relationships among them. Ecology, through the analysis of ecosystems, has identified strategies for survival and adaptation to changes and disturbances. The similarity between the elements of an ecosystem (population and support) and housing (inhabitants, homes and natural resources) enables to verify that the implementation of these strategies to housing can lead to better situations in the relationship existing between urban systems with their environment. From this hypothesis, a diachronic or long term analysis method is proposed to know the evolution of housing over time through the quantification of a descriptive indicators series of inhabitants, homes and natural resources. The implementation of this method to a urban system would allow better knowledge of the characteristics of these elements and forecast their development, identify undesirable scenarios and propose early intervention measures to correct these situations and avoid unnecessary environmental impacts. The validation of the method of analysis has been proved in the city of Madrid for the years 1940-2010. From the analysis of the evolution of the indicators selected, accommodation intervention measures are proposed based on ecological strategies that would have led to an alternative development having less impact on the environment than that of the current situation. The analysis method is implemented prospectively defining three future scenarios for the city of Madrid until 2100. The likely evolution of the indicators are analyzed for each scenario and various intervention measures that would lead to a better situation from an ecological point of view are proposed. The thesis conclusion states the interest of this diachronic analysis method to estimate potential future developments in the housing field, identify resource requirements to meet the demands of the citizens and, from an ecological approach, define, quantify and assess possible intervention measures to reduce environmental impacts. The method, therefore, is an interesting tool for decision-making process as for the intervention in housing and urban planning in the long term.

Elaboración de un nuevo modelo económico para la contribución al desarrollo sostenible de países del África subsahariana: implementación en Guinea Bissau

El escaso crecimiento de los países del África subsahariana, lleva a la necesidad de plantear un tipo de modelo económico que se adapte a sus especiales características y que en definitiva, conduzca a las sociedades que viven en estos países a un aumento de su calidad de vida, mediante mejoras en todos los campos sociales tales como: la enseñanza, la salud y la nutrición, que puedan ayudar a transformar las perspectivas del crecimiento económico, especialmente en los países objeto de estudio, que se caracterizan por presentar bajos ingresos y escaso desarrollo humano. Se puede concluir, por tanto, diciendo que en definitiva, el fin es el desarrollo humano y que el crecimiento económico es un medio. El propósito del crecimiento económico debe ser enriquecer la vida de la gente. Los adelantos a corto plazo en materia de desarrollo humano son posibles, merced a un mayor crecimiento económico que a su vez no debe desligarse del respeto por el medioambiente y el entorno. Para conseguir estos objetivos, se plantea en la presente tesis un modelo económico, elaborado siguiendo las directrices de la Dinámica de Sistemas, mediante el uso del programa informático VENSIM. El modelo planteado se basa en la producción de energía eléctrica, que sería capaz de abastecer a una población y generar unos excedentes que podrían ser vendidos y las ganancias reinvertidas para impulsar el crecimiento económico de la población a la que abastece. ABSTRACT Low growth in sub-Saharan Africa, leading to the need to establish a type of economic model that suits their special characteristics and ultimately lead to societies that live in these countries to increase human capacity through improvements in all social fields such as education, health and nutrition that can help transform the prospects for economic growth, especially in the countries under study, which are characterized by low income and low human development. It can be concluded, therefore, saying that ultimately, the end is human development and economic growth is a means. The purpose of economic growth should be to enrich the lives of people. The short-term advances in human development are possible, thanks to higher economic growth which in turn should not be separated from respect for the environment and intone. To achieve these objectives, we propose in this thesis an economic model, developed under the guidance of dynamic systems, using the computer program VENSIM. The proposed model is based on the production of electricity, which would be able to supply a population and generate a surplus that could be sold and the proceeds reinvested to boost economic growth in the population it serves.

Diseño del curso para operador "Coeficientes inherentes de reactividad" a plataforma e-Learning

Las centrales nucleares necesitan de personal altamente especializado y formado. Es por ello por lo que el sector de la formación especializada en centrales nucleares necesita incorporar los últimos avances en métodos formativos. Existe una gran cantidad de cursos de formación presenciales y es necesario transformar dichos cursos para utilizarlos con las nuevas tecnologías de la información. Para ello se necesitan equipos multidisciplinares, en los que se incluyen ingenieros, que deben identificar los objetivos formativos, competencias, contenidos y el control de calidad del propio curso. En este proyecto se utilizan técnicas de ingeniería del conocimiento como eje metodológico para transformar un curso de formación presencial en formación on-line a través de tecnologías de la información. En la actualidad, las nuevas tecnologías de la información y comunicación están en constante evolución. De esta forma se han sumergido en el mundo transformando la visión que teníamos de éste para dar lugar a nuevas oportunidades. Es por ello que este proyecto busca la unión entre el e-learning y el mundo empresarial. El objetivo es el diseño, en plataforma e-learning, de un curso técnico que instruya a operadores de sala de control de una central nuclear. El trabajo realizado en este proyecto ha sido, además de transformar un curso presencial en on-line, en obtener una metodología para que otros cursos se puedan transformar. Para conseguir este cometido, debemos preocuparnos tanto por el contenido de los cursos como por su gestión. Por este motivo, el proyecto comienza con definiciones básicas de terminología propia de e-learning. Continúa con la generación de una metodología que aplique la gestión de conocimiento para transformar cualquier curso presencial a esta plataforma. Definida la metodología, se aplicará para el diseño del curso específico de Coeficientes Inherentes de Reactividad. Finaliza con un estudio económico que dé viabilidad al proyecto y con la creación de un modelo económico que estime el precio para cualquier curso futuro. Abstract Nuclear power plants need highly specialized and trained personnel. Thus, nuclear power plant Specialized Training Sector requires the incorporation of the latest advances in training methods. A large array of face-to-face training courses exist and it has become necessary to transform said courses in order to apply them with the new information systems available. For this, multidisciplinary equipment is needed where the engineering workforce must identify educational objectives, competences and abilities, contents and quality control of the different courses. In this project, knowledge engineering techniques are employed as the methodological axis in order to transform a face-to-face training course into on-line training through the use of new information technologies. Nowadays, new information and communication technologies are in constant evolution. They have introduced themselves into our world, transforming our previous vision of them, leading to new opportunities. For this reason, the present Project seeks to unite the use of e-learning and the Business and Corporate world. The main objective is the design, in an e-learning platform, of a technical course that will train nuclear power plant control-room operators. The work carried out in this Project has been, in addition to the transformation of a face-to-face course into an online one, the obtainment of a methodology to employ in the future transformation of other courses. In order to achieve this mission, our interest must focus on the content as well as on the management of the various courses. Hence, the Project starts with basic definitions of e-learning terminology. Next, a methodology that applies knowledge management for the transformation of any face-to-face course into e-learning has been generated. Once this methodology is defined, it has been applied for the design process of the Inherent Coefficients of Reactivity course. Finally, an economic study has been developed in order to determine the viability of the Project and an economic model has been created to estimate the price of any given course

Valorización energética de biomasas en el marco de la política energética española. Incentivos económico-financieros y políticos, aportación de valor añadido y prospectiva estratégica de desarrollo

El modelo económico actual basado en el consumo y en la búsqueda permanente de una mayor calidad de vida, unido a una población mundial en aumento, contribuye a incrementar la demanda de servicios energéticos para cubrir las necesidades de energía de las personas y las industrias. Desde finales del siglo XIX la energía se ha generado fundamentalmente a partir de combustibles fósiles (carbón, petróleo y gas), convertidos en el suministro energético predominante mundialmente. Las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero que genera la prestación de servicios energéticos han contribuido considerablemente al aumento histórico de las concentraciones de esos gases en la atmósfera, hasta el punto de que el consumo de combustibles fósiles es responsable de la mayoría de las emisiones antropogénicas (IPCC, 2012). Existen diversas opciones para disminuir las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero del sector energético y con ello contribuir a mitigar el cambio climático, entre otras sería viable aumentar la eficiencia energética y sustituir combustibles de origen fósil por combustibles de origen renovable, pudiendo garantizar un suministro de energía sostenible, competitivo y seguro. De todas las energías renovables susceptibles de formar parte de una cartera de opciones de mitigación, esta tesis se centra en la bioenergía generada a partir de la valorización energética de las biomasas agrícolas, forestales, ganaderas o de otro tipo, con fines eléctricos y térmicos. Con objeto de mostrar su capacidad para contribuir a mitigar el cambio climático y su potencial contribución al desarrollo socioeconómico, a la generación de energía distribuida y a reducir determinados efectos negativos sobre el medio ambiente, se ha analizado minuciosamente el sector español de la biomasa en su conjunto. Desde el recurso biomásico que existe en España, las formas de extraerlo y procesarlo, las tecnologías de valorización energética, sus usos energéticos principales y la capacidad de implementación del sector en España. Asimismo se ha examinado el contexto energético tanto internacional y europeo como nacional, y se han analizado pormenorizadamente los instrumentos de soporte que han contribuido de manera directa e indirecta al desarrollo del sector en España. Además, la tesis integra el análisis de los resultados obtenidos mediante dos metodologías diferentes con fines también distintos. Por un lado se han obtenido los resultados medioambientales y socioeconómicos de los análisis de ciclo de vida input-output generados a partir de las cinco tecnologías biomásicas más ampliamente utilizadas en España. Y por otro lado, en base a los objetivos energéticos y medioambientales establecidos, se han obtenido distintas proyecciones de la implementación del sector a medio plazo, en forma de escenarios energéticos con horizonte 2035, mediante el modelo TIMES-Spain. La tesis ofrece también una serie de conclusiones y recomendaciones que podrían resultar pertinentes para los agentes que constituyen la cadena de valor del propio sector e interesados, así como para la formulación de políticas y mecanismos de apoyo para los agentes decisores, tanto del ámbito de la Administración General del Estado como autonómico y regional, sobre las características y ventajas de determinadas formas de valorización, sobre los efectos sociales y medioambientales que induce su uso, y sobre la capacidad de sector para contribuir a determinadas políticas más allá de las puramente energéticas. En todo caso, esta tesis doctoral aspira a contribuir a la toma de decisiones idóneas tanto a los agentes del sector como a responsables públicos, con objeto de adoptar medidas orientadas a fomentar modificaciones del sistema energético que incrementen la proporción de energía renovable y, de esta forma, contribuir a mitigar la amenaza que supone el cambio climático no solo en la actualidad, sino especialmente en los próximos años para las generaciones venideras. ABSTRACT The current economic model based on both, consumption and the constant search for greater quality of life, coupled with a growing world population, contribute to increase the demand for energy services in order to meet the energy needs of people and industries. Since the late nineteenth century, energy has been basically generated from fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas), which converted fossil fuels into the predominant World energy supply source. Emissions of greenhouse gases generated by the provision of energy services have contributed significantly to the historical increase in the concentrations of these gases in the atmosphere, to the extent that the consumption of fossil fuels is responsible for most of the anthropogenic emissions (IPCC, 2012). There are several options to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases in the energy sector and, thereby, to contribute to mitigate climate change. Among others, would be feasible to increase energy efficiency and progressively replacing fossil fuels by renewable fuels, which are able to ensure a sustainable, competitive and secure energy supply. Of all the renewable energies likely to form part of a portfolio of mitigation options, this thesis focuses on bioenergy generated from agricultural, forestry, farming or other kind of biomass, with electrical and thermal purposes. In order to show their ability to contribute to mitigate climate change and its potential contribution to socio-economic development, distributed energy generation and to reduce certain negative effects on the environment, the Spanish biomass sector as a whole has been dissected. From the types of biomass resources that exist in Spain, ways of extracting and processing them, energy production technologies, its main energy uses and the implementation capacity of the sector in Spain. It has also examined the international, European and national energy context, and has thoroughly analyzed the support instruments that have contributed directly and indirectly to the development of the sector in Spain, so far. Furthermore, the thesis integrates the analysis of results obtained using two different methodologies also with different purposes. On the one hand, the environmental and socio-economic results of the analysis of input-output cycle life generated from the five biomass technologies most widely used in Spain, have been obtained. On the other hand, different projections of the implementation of the sector in the medium term, as energy scenarios with horizon 2035, have been obtained by the model TIMES-Spain, based on several energy and environmental objectives. The thesis also offers a series of conclusions and recommendations that could be relevant to the agents that constitute the value chain of the biomass sector itself and other stakeholders. As well as policy and support mechanisms for decision-makers, from both: The Central and Regional Governments, on the characteristics and advantages of certain forms of valorization, on the social and environmental effects that induce their use, and the ability of the biomass sector to contribute to certain policies beyond the purely energy ones. In any case, this thesis aims to contribute to decision making, suitable for both: Industry players and to public officials. In order to adopt measures to promote significant changes in the energy system that increase the proportion of renewable energy and, consequently, that contribute to mitigate the threat of climate change; not only today but in the coming years, especially for future generations.

Terremoto 2010 en Chile y vivienda social: resultados y aprendizajes para recomendación de políticas públicas

El territorio chileno esta propenso, desde antes que se constituyera como nación, al impacto del comportamiento de la naturaleza que le es inherente y que también le produce daños. Está representado en los seísmos, los más dañinos. Todavía, la sociedad chilena no termina de comprender que esos daños, son parte de un desequilibrio de una convivencia armoniosa entre ella y esa naturaleza, puesto que el ser humano que vive y habita sobre ella, también lo es. Así entonces, cada vez que el territorio y su espacio son remecidos por los seísmos, la naturaleza, manifestada en la sociedad, adquiere nuevos aprendizajes para mejorar la respuesta al próximo evento. El terremoto 2010 de 8.8° Richter, fue el segundo de mayor magnitud después del otro que hasta ahora, es el más grande del planeta, y que pudo ser medido. Aquel, fue el terremoto de Valdivia de 9,5° Richter, ocurrido el 22 de mayo de 1960. Las sociedades no son estáticas, cambian, son dinámicas. Esta vez el seísmo del 2010, ocurrió en una sociedad que hace ya 35 años, adoptó un modelo de economía de libre mercado. La pobreza que tenía a 1990, era de aproximadamente, un 40%. La del 2010, de un 14%. Durante la dictadura militar hubo otro seísmo de 7,8° Richter, recién instalándose el modelo aludido. El del 2010, permite sacar conclusiones en el contexto de este modelo económico. Los resultados aparentemente son interesantes en cuanto a que hubo pocas víctimas pero por otra parte, hubo un gran daño económico. La tesis profundiza en el impacto del seísmo en la dimensión del parque habitacional construido y de la vivienda social y en los habitantes más pobres y vulnerables. Es la primera investigación sobre seísmos y vivienda social en Chile. Se asume la hipótesis que ciertas variables por una parte, y una cultura antisísmica por otra, están presentes y han penetrado en los sectores populares durante los últimos 50 años y que ello, podría estar en la base de los resultados obtenidos. Se plantea una suerte de “matrimonio bien avenido” entre el habitante y políticas públicas en vivienda. De ello, se derivan recomendaciones para mejorar los avances en el problema investigado que se contextualizan en referencia al marco teórico elaborado. Sin embargo, y no obstante lo investigado, lo ya avanzado no garantiza buenos resultados en el próximo evento, Por ello, los aprendizajes nutren a otros, nuevos, que acompañarán a la sociedad chilena en su esencia e identidad como nación. ABSTRACT Long before its establishment as an independent nation, the Chilean territory has been prone to the impact of nature, which is an inherent and damaging feature of this land. Such an impact is represented by earthquakes, which are regarded as the most damaging natural disasters. Today, the Chilean society is still unable to understand that these impacts are part of an unbalanced coexistence between individuals and nature since human beings, who live and inhabit this space, are also an element of nature. Therefore, each time this territory is hit by earthquakes, nature —represented by society— learns new lessons in order to provide a better response to future events. The 2010 earthquake, which rated 8.8 on the Richter scale, was the second largest earthquake after the most powerful earthquake ever recorded. Such an event was the Valdivia earthquake of May 22, 1960, which rated 9.5 on the Richter scale. Societies are not static as they are changing and dynamic. The 2010 earthquake took place within a context in which society operated under a free market economy model that had been running for 35 years. As of 1990, 40 per cent of the population lived in poverty; in 2010, such a figure was reduced to 14 per cent. Likewise, a magnitude 7.8 quake struck the country during the military regime period in the early days of the above model. The 2010 earthquake allows us to draw some conclusions within the context of this economic model. Results are interesting since there were few fatalities but significant economic loss. This thesis provides insights into the impact of the 2010 earthquake on the housing stock, social housing and those living in poverty and vulnerability. This is the first research on earthquakes and social housing conducted in Chile. The hypothesis is that certain variables and anti-seismic culture have permeated popular segments of the population over the last 50 years. The latter may be at the basis of the results obtained during this research. Likewise, this study proposes a certain “happy marriage” between the inhabitant and public policies on housing. The above offers some recommendations intended to further explore this issue; these suggestions are contextualized according to the theoretical framework developed in this research. However, current progress on this matter does not ensure positive results in the event of an earthquake. This is why these lessons will serve as models for future events, which are intrinsically tied to local society and Chilean identity.

La construcción del espacio litoral : el caso de la costa de Cartagena

El litoral ha constituido a lo largo de la historia una importante fuente de recursos económicos además de un punto estratégico para la defensa del territorio. El comercio, la pesca o la industria de la sal han propiciado la formación de poblaciones y ciudades al borde del mar. La costa funcionó como un ámbito defensivo, peligroso e insalubre durante siglos donde el mar modulaba el frente costero sin grandes interacciones con un entorno prácticamente deshabitado. A mediados del siglo XIX, las innovaciones técnicas y la pacificación definitiva del Mediterráneo permiten poner en valor sus características naturales y de oportunidad. Sin perder del todo su valor defensivo, el litoral resurge como recurso productivo y como lugar de ocio y disfrute de la población. El valor estratégico de la costa quedará también reflejado en el marco normativo. El derecho civil moderno recuperará el concepto de Dominio público Marítimo Terrestre a través de la Ley de Aguas de 1866 que regulará también los usos y las limitaciones en la propiedad privada litoral. Desde ese momento, las transformaciones económicas, sociales, jurídicas y ambientales van a provocar un cambio significativo en la relación entre la sociedad y la costa que dará paso a la construcción del espacio litoral que hemos heredado. Desde la triple perspectiva del litoral como sistema físico ambiental, sistema económico, productivo y cultural, y sistema administrativo y legal, el principal objetivo de la tesis será reconstruir el proceso de transformación del litoral consecuencia de la evolución en la forma de producción del espacio, de área defensiva a recurso productivo, y desde mediados del siglo XIX hasta principios del siglo XXI. Sin embargo, la construcción del litoral no ha sido homogénea ni constante a lo largo del tiempo. Ha estado sujeta a los distintos vaivenes económicos y sociales pero también a los cambios en el modelo territorial definido por el marco legal vigente, así como a los reajustes del propio sistema físico. Como instrumento sociopolítico, el marco legal regula las presiones del sistema económico sobre el medio, apostando por una visión frente a otra, y posibilitando el grado de transformación final. Así, el conocimiento sobre el territorio en el que se interviene y la definición del modelo de litoral por parte de los poderes públicos irán configurando el espacio físico, económico y social desarrollado en la costa. Para la reconstrucción del proceso de construcción del litoral, la tesis define cuatro fases diferentes y aplica las hipótesis y la metodología a la costa de Cartagena. Se presenta gráficamente la evolución en los tres sistemas en cada una de las fases, y se recompone el relato histórico a través de los hitos más relevantes para el proceso. En cada una de las fases, el nuevo modelo intentará dar respuesta a todo aquello que no funcionó o se quedó a medias en el periodo anterior. Las crisis económicas provocan la ralentización de la actividad productiva y, consecuentemente, de las transformaciones en el territorio. Servirán para establecer, en principio, un cambio de paradigma en la lectura y gestión del litoral que acabará traduciéndose en un nuevo texto legislativo en materia de costas (1969, 1988 y 2013). La reforma de la normativa responde a una nueva forma de entender, ordenar, gestionar e intervenir en el territorio, donde se modulan las pautas pero también la intensidad en la intervención. Pero nace condicionada por el litoral heredado: los derechos generados durante la vigencia del marco legal anterior; el modelo económico y sus presiones y expectativas sobre el litoral; y el medio físico en el que se acumulan los procesos de degradación no resueltos y los nuevos riesgos. Así, las conclusiones de la tesis ponen de manifiesto la necesidad de una visión compleja e integral sobre el litoral, en la que el urbanismo y la ordenación del territorio serán fundamentales para afrontar los nuevos retos en su construcción a futuro. ABSTRACT The littoral has been throughout history an important source of economic resources and a strategic point for the defense of territory. Trade, fishing or salt industry have led to the formation of towns and cities on the edge of the sea. The coast served as a defensive, dangerous and unhealthy place where the sea modulated for centuries the waterfront without major interactions with a virtually uninhabited environment. In the mid-nineteenth century, technical innovations and the final pacification of the Mediterranean allowed to value its natural features and opportunities. Without entirely losing its defensive value, the coast emerges as a productive resource and as a place of leisure and enjoyment of people. The strategic value of the coast will also be reflected in the legal framework. The concept of maritime-terrestrial public domain will be recovered by the modern civil law and the law of waters of 1866 governs the uses and limitations of private ownership of the coast. Since then, the economic, social, legal and environmental changes will to cause a significant change in the relationship between society and the coast that will give way to the construction of littoral space inherited. From the triple perspective of the littoral as a physical environmental system, an economic, productive and cultural system, and an administrative and legal system, the main objective of the thesis is to rebuild its process of transformation, as a result of the evolution in the way that space is produced, from defensive zone to productive resource, and from the middle of the nineteenth century until the beginning of the twenty-first century. However, the construction of the coast has not been uniform nor constant over time. It has been subject to different economic and social fluctuations and also to changes in the territorial model defined by the legal framework in force, as well as to readjustments of the physical system itself. As socio-political instrument, the legal framework regulates the pressure of the economic system on the environment, it bets on a vision over another and facilitates the final degree of transformation. Thus, the knowledge on the territory that is being intervened and the definition of the model of shoreline by public authorities will configure the physical, economic and social space developed on the coast. For the reconstruction of the littoral building process, the thesis defines four different phases and applies the hypothesis and methodology to the coast of Cartagena. It introduces graphically the evolution of the three systems in each of the phases and it recomposes the historical account through of the most important milestones for the process. In each phase, the new model will attempt to answer everything that did not work or was half in the previous period. Economic crises cause a slowdown in productive activity and, consequently, in the changes of territory. They serve to establish, in principle, a paradigm shift for reading and managing the littoral, eventually resulting in new legal texts on coasts matter (1969, 1988 and 2013). The reform of legislation responds to a new way for understanding, arranging, managing and intervening on the territory, where the guidelines and also the intervention intensity are modulated. But it is born conditioned by the inherited coast: the rights generated under previous legal framework; the economic model and its pressures and expectations on the littoral; and the physical environment which accumulates degradation processes unresolved and new risks. Thus, the thesis conclusions highlight the need for a complex and comprehensive view on the littoral, where urban planning and land-use planning will be key to meet the future challenges in its construction.

Methodology for assessing regional economic impacts of charging HGVs in Spain: an integrated approach through a random utility based multiregional input-output and a road transportation network model

An integrated approach composed of a random utility-based multiregional input-output model and a road transport network model was developed for evaluating the application of a fee to heavy-goods vehicles (HGVs) in Spain. For this purpose, a distance-based charge scenario (in euros per vehicle kilometer) for HGVs was evaluated for a selected motorway network in Spain. Although the aim of this charging policy was to increase the efficiency of transport, the approach strongly identified direct and indirect impacts on the regional economy. Estimates of the magnitude and extent of indirect effects on aggregated macroeconomic indicators (employment and gross domestic product) are provided. The macroeconomic effects of the charging policy were found to be positive for some regions and negative for other regions.

A model of economic management of cultural heritage: the rehabilitation of fort christmas as an interpretation center of defensive architecture of the Mediterranean in Cartagena (Spain)

The Cultural Heritage constitutes a way to generate social identities and play an important role in the development of the Spanish Mediterranean cities that opt to sustainable quality tourism. The reflection on the necessity of intervention on this heritage, in addition to establishing what should be done, brings up the need to define the reasons for taking action, why and what-for. These decisions are essential to establish if its maintenance and recovery are economically sustainable. The Project "Cartagena Port of Cultures", with support from the European Union, is an example of effective instrument for ensuring the sustainability of our built heritage conservation. Its main objective was to enable sustainable development of tourism in Cartagena based on sustainability and seasonality. This was achieved through a process of recovery of heritage resources and their optimum promotion and marketing.

A model for the economic evaluation of master city plans: a pilot study of Västerås, Sweden

The paper introduces the framework, problems addressed, objective function, types of variables and so on for a model designed to facilitate the economic evaluation of master city plans. The model presented here has been used in a pilot study of the city of Vasteras, Sweden. It consists of three main parts, data, results and method. Some conclusions are drawn.