Drivers in adopting adaptation strategies to face increased water scarcity in agriculture. A case study in Doñana (Spain) and Makueni (Kenya)

La agricultura es uno de los sectores más afectados por el cambio climático. A pesar de haber demostrado a lo largo de la historia una gran capacidad para adaptarse a nuevas situaciones, hoy en día la agricultura se enfrenta a nuevos retos tales como satisfacer un elevado crecimiento en la demanda de alimentos, desarrollar una agricultura sostenible con el medio ambiente y reducir las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. El potencial de adaptación debe ser definido en un contexto que incluya el comportamiento humano, ya que éste juega un papel decisivo en la implementación final de las medidas. Por este motivo, y para desarrollar correctamente políticas que busquen influir en el comportamiento de los agricultores para fomentar la adaptación a estas nuevas condiciones, es necesario entender previamente los procesos de toma de decisiones a nivel individual o de explotación, así como los efectos de los factores que determinan las barreras o motivaciones de la implementación de medidas. Esta Tesis doctoral trata de profundizar en el análisis de factores que influyen en la toma de decisiones de los agricultores para adoptar estrategias de adaptación al cambio climático. Este trabajo revisa la literatura actual y desarrolla un marco metodológico a nivel local y regional. Dos casos de estudio a nivel local (Doñana, España y Makueni, Kenia) han sido llevados a cabo con el fin de explorar el comportamiento de los agricultores hacia la adaptación. Estos casos de estudio representan regiones con notables diferencias en climatología, impactos del cambio climático, barreras para la adaptación y niveles de desarrollo e influencia de las instituciones públicas y privadas en la agricultura. Mientras el caso de estudio de Doñana representa un ejemplo de problemas asociados al uso y escasez del agua donde se espera que se agraven en el futuro, el caso de estudio de Makueni ejemplifica una zona fuertemente amenazada por las predicciones de cambio climático, donde adicionalmente la falta de infraestructura y la tecnología juegan un papel crucial para la implementación de la adaptación. El caso de estudio a nivel regional trata de generalizar en África el comportamiento de los agricultores sobre la implementación de medidas. El marco metodológico que se ha seguido en este trabajo abarca una amplia gama de enfoques y métodos para la recolección y análisis de datos. Los métodos utilizados para la toma de datos incluyen la implementación de encuestas, entrevistas, talleres con grupos de interés, grupos focales de discusión, revisión de estudios previos y bases de datos públicas. Los métodos analíticos incluyen métodos estadísticos, análisis multi‐criterio para la toma de decisiones, modelos de optimización de uso del suelo y un índice compuesto calculado a través de indicadores. Los métodos estadísticos se han utilizado con el fin de evaluar la influencia de los factores socio‐económicos y psicológicos sobre la adopción de medidas de adaptación. Dentro de estos métodos se incluyen regresiones logísticas, análisis de componentes principales y modelos de ecuaciones estructurales. Mientras que el análisis multi‐criterio se ha utilizado con el fin de evaluar las opciones de adaptación de acuerdo a las opiniones de las diferentes partes interesadas, el modelo de optimización ha tenido como fin analizar la combinación óptima de medidas de adaptación. El índice compuesto se ha utilizado para evaluar a nivel regional la implementación de medidas de adaptación en África. En general, los resultados del estudio ponen de relieve la gran importancia de considerar diferentes escalas espaciales a la hora de evaluar la implementación de medidas de adaptación al cambio climático. El comportamiento de los agricultores es diferente entre lugares considerados a una escala local relativamente pequeña, por lo que la generalización de los patrones del comportamiento a escalas regionales o globales resulta relativamente compleja. Los resultados obtenidos han permitido identificar factores determinantes tanto socioeconómicos como psicológicos y calcular su efecto sobre la adopción de medidas de adaptación. Además han proporcionado una mejor comprensión del distinto papel que desempeñan los cinco tipos de capital (natural, físico, financiero, social y humano) en la implementación de estrategias de adaptación. Con este trabajo se proporciona información de gran interés en los procesos de desarrollo de políticas destinadas a mejorar el apoyo de la sociedad a tomar medidas contra el cambio climático. Por último, en el análisis a nivel regional se desarrolla un índice compuesto que muestra la probabilidad de adoptar medidas de adaptación en las regiones de África y se analizan las causas que determinan dicha probabilidad de adopción de medidas. ABSTRACT Agriculture is and will continue to be one of the sectors most affected by climate change. Despite having demonstrated throughout history a great ability to adapt, agriculture today faces new challenges such as meeting growing food demands, developing sustainable agriculture and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation policies planned on global, regional or local scales are ultimately implemented in decision‐making processes at the farm or individual level so adaptation potentials have to be set within the context of individual behaviour and regional institutions. Policy instruments can play a formative role in the adoption of such policies by addressing incentives/disincentives that influence farmer’s behaviour. Hence understanding farm‐level decision‐making processes and the influence of determinants of adoption is crucial when designing policies aimed at fostering adoption. This thesis seeks to analyse the factors that influence decision‐making by farmers in relation to the uptake of adaptation options. This work reviews the current knowledge and develops a methodological framework at local and regional level. Whilst the case studies at the local level are conducted with the purpose of exploring farmer’s behaviour towards adaptation the case study at the regional level attempts to up‐scale and generalise theory on adoption of farmlevel adaptation options. The two case studies at the local level (Doñana, Spain and Makueni, Kenya) encompass areas with different; climates, impacts of climate change, adaptation constraints and limits, levels of development, institutional support for agriculture and influence from public and private institutions. Whilst the Doñana Case Study represents an area plagued with water‐usage issues, set to be aggravated further by climate change, Makueni Case study exemplifies an area decidedly threatened by climate change where a lack of infrastructure and technology plays a crucial role in the uptake of adaptation options. The proposed framework is based on a wide range of approaches for collecting and analysing data. The approaches used for data collection include the implementation of surveys, interviews, stakeholder workshops, focus group discussions, a review of previous case studies, and public databases. The analytical methods include statistical approaches, multi criteria analysis for decision‐making, land use optimisation models, and a composite index based on public databases. Statistical approaches are used to assess the influence of socio‐economic and psychological factors on the adoption or support for adaptation measures. The statistical approaches used are logistic regressions, principal component analysis and structural equation modelling. Whilst a multi criteria analysis approach is used to evaluate adaptation options according to the different perspectives of stakeholders, the optimisation model analyses the optimal combination of adaptation options. The composite index is developed to assess adoption of adaptation measures in Africa. Overall, the results of the study highlight the importance of considering various scales when assessing adoption of adaptation measures to climate change. As farmer’s behaviour varies at a local scale there is elevated complexity when generalising behavioural patterns for farmers at regional or global scales. The results identify and estimate the effect of most relevant socioeconomic and psychological factors that influence adoption of adaptation measures to climate change. They also provide a better understanding of the role of the five types of capital (natural, physical, financial, social, and human) on the uptake of farm‐level adaptation options. These assessments of determinants help to explain adoption of climate change measures and provide helpful information in order to design polices aimed at enhancing societal support for adaptation policies. Finally the analysis at the regional level develops a composite index which suggests the likelihood of the regions in Africa to adopt farm‐level adaptation measures and analyses the main causes of this likelihood of adoption.

"Deporte inclusivo en la escuela": diseño y análisis de un programa de intervencion para promover la inclusión del alumnado con discapacidad en Educación Física

La Educación Física se muestra, a priori, como un área idónea para trabajar intervenciones educativas para facilitar la inclusión de alumnos con discapacidad. Sin embargo, poco se conoce sobre el potencial que presentan los deportes adaptados y paralímpicos como contenido para fomentar la sensibilización y concienciación del alumnado sin discapacidad, especialmente en situaciones inclusivas de práctica. Por otro lado, la actitud del docente y su formación se presentan como claves en este contexto, ya que es quien en última instancia selecciona los contenidos a trabajar. Entendemos que en EF disponemos de una ocasión única en el curriculum para fomentar la participación activa y efectiva del alumno con discapacidad en clase (especialmente a nivel de desarrollo de la competencia motriz, entre otras), si bien esto depende de factores relacionados con los dos agentes anteriores. Es por todo ello que la Educación Física, como protagonista y como contenido, se muestra como un contexto adecuado para la investigación de los procesos de inclusión de alumnos con discapacidad en el ámbito educativo. Este trabajo de investigación pretende arrojar luz a los interrogantes que condicionan y limitan este contexto, desde una perspectiva multidisciplinar, con distintas metodologías, sobre los tres agentes indicados. La falta de consenso en la literatura en cuanto a las características y tipo de intervenciones eficaces para facilitar esta sensibilización del alumnado, unido a que es un ámbito relativamente reciente como tema de investigación, nos ha impulsado a trabajar en esta línea. El primer objetivo de este trabajo de investigación fue diseñar e implementar un programa de sensibilización y concienciación hacia la discapacidad basado en los deportes adaptados en el área de Educación Física para alumnos de secundaria y bachillerato. Inicialmente, se realizó una búsqueda bibliográfica tanto a nivel nacional como internacional, con el fin de definir las características principales que aporta la literatura científica en este aspecto. Apoyándonos por un lado, en el programa educativo Paralympic School Day (CPI, 2004) y por otro, en la citada revisión, desarrollamos un planteamiento inicial de estructura y fases. Dicho proyecto, fue presentado al Comité Paralímpico Español y a las federaciones deportivas españolas para personas con discapacidad, con la finalidad de recabar su apoyo institucional en forma de aval y recursos no solo a nivel económico sino también como apoyo logístico y de difusión. Tras su aprobación y gracias también al apoyo de la UPM, la Fundación Sanitas y Liberty Seguros, se procedió a diseñar el programa. Para el desarrollo de los materiales didácticos se contactó con expertos en la materia de EF y Actividad Física Adaptada tanto del ámbito educativo (profesores de educación secundaria y profesorado universitario) como del deportivo a nivel nacional. A su vez, se comenzó a difundir entre el profesorado de los centros con el fin de detectar su interés en participar durante el curso académico (2012-2013) en el programa “Deporte Inclusivo en la Escuela”. Con la finalización del desarrollo de los materiales didácticos, se visitó a los centros educativos para presentar el dossier informativo donde se explicaba el programa, así como las características y fases para su implementación. El programa está fundamentado en la Teoría del Contacto (Allport, 1954) y basado en los deportes adaptados y paralímpicos, planteado con una metodología inclusiva, seleccionando la información, la simulación y el contacto directo como estrategias para el fomento de la sensibilización y concienciación hacia la inclusión. En la reunión celebrada en la Facultad de Ciencias de la Actividad Física y del Deporte (INEF-UPM) en febrero de 2013, se coordinó junto con el profesorado la implementación del programa en cada uno de los 13 centros educativos, con acciones concretas como la adecuación de la propuesta didáctica en la planificación anual del profesor, el préstamo de material o la ponencia del deportista paralímpico entre otras cuestiones. Para la consecución del objetivo 2 de este trabajo, analizar el efecto del programa en los distintos agentes implicados en el mismo, alumnos sin discapacidad, profesorado de EF y alumnos con discapacidad, se calendarizó la toma de datos y la administración de las diferentes herramientas metodológicas para antes (pretest) como después de la intervención (posttets). En el caso de los alumnos sin discapacidad (N= 1068), se analizó el efecto de la intervención sobre la actitud hacia la inclusión, utilizando el cuestionario “Children Attitude Integrated Physical Education-Revised” (CAIPE-R; Block, 1995) de carácter cuantitativo tras su validación y adaptación al contexto español. Los resultados mostraron cambios significativos positivos en la actitud el grupo que mantuvo un contacto no estructurado con alumnos con discapacidad. En esta muestra también se midió la actitud hacia el juego cooperativo con compañeros con discapacidad en clases de EF usando el cuestionario “Children's Beliefs Toward Cooperative Playing With Peers With Disabilities in Physical Education” (CBIPPD-MPE; Obrusnikova, Block, y Dillon, 2010). El desarrollo de un sistema de categorías fundamentado en la Teoría del Comportamiento Planificado (Azjen, 1991) sirvió como base para el análisis de las creencias del alumnado sin discapacidad. Tras la intervención, las creencias conductuales emergentes se mantuvieron, excepto en el caso de los factores identificados como obstáculos de la inclusión. En el caso de las creencias normativas también se mantuvieron tras la intervención y respecto a las creencias de control, los alumnos identificaron al profesor como principal agente facilitador de la inclusión. En el caso de los profesores de EF participantes en el programa (N=18), se analizó el efecto del programa en su actitud hacia la inclusión de alumnos con discapacidad en EF con el cuestionario “Attitud toward inclusion of individual with physical disabilities in Physical Education” (ATISDPE-R; Kudláèek, Válková, Sherrill, Myers, y French, 2002). Los resultados mostraron que no se produjeron diferencias significativas tras la intervención en la actitud general, encontrando algunas diferencias en determinados ítems relacionados con los beneficios de la inclusión en los alumnos sin discapacidad relacionados con los docentes con experiencia previa con discapacidad y en EF antes de la intervención. La otra dimensión analizada fue el efecto de la intervención en la autoeficacia del profesor en la enseñanza de la EF en condiciones inclusivas, habiendo utilizado el cuestionario "Self-efficacy in teaching PE under inclusive conditions" (SEIPE; Hutzler, Zach, y Gafni, 2005). Los resultados en este caso muestran diferencias significativas positivas en cuestiones relacionadas como sentirse capaces de mejorar las condiciones óptimas de enseñanza con alumnos con discapacidad física como movilidad reducida severa y amputación y discapacidad visual tanto en situaciones deportivas, como juegos o actividades fuera del centro educativo a favor de los docentes. En cuanto al género, los hombres obtuvieron valores superiores a las mujeres en relación a sentirse más capaces de incluir a alumnos con discapacidad física tanto en juegos durante el recreo como en la enseñanza de técnica deportiva. Los profesores con menos de 10 años de docencia mostraron valores más positivos en cuanto a sentirse capaces de incluir a un alumno con discapacidad fisica en deportes durante su tiempo libre. El análisis del diario del profesor muestra por un lado, las tendencias emergentes como principales elementos facilitadores u obstaculizadores de la inclusión en EF, identificando al propio alumno sin discapacidad, el propio profesor, los contenidos, los materiales y la organización. Por otro lado, el análisis de los contenidos propuestos en el programa. En el caso de los alumnos con discapacidad (N=22), se analizó el impacto del programa de intervención en el autoconcepto, con el cuestionario "Autoconcepto forma 5" (AF5; F. García y Musitu, 2001). Se encontraron diferencias significativas a favor de las mujeres antes de la intervención en la dimensión familiar, mientras que los hombres obtuvieron valores más altos en las dimensiones social y físico. En cuanto a la edad, se encontraron diferencias significativas antes de la intervención, con valores superiores en los alumnos más jóvenes (12-14 años) en la dimensión físico, mientras que los alumnos mayores (15-17 años) mostraron valores más altos en la dimensión social del cuestionario. Respeto al tipo de discapacidad, los alumnos con discapacidad motórica mostraron mejores valores que los que tienen discapacidad auditiva para la dimensión físico antes de la intervención. En cuanto al autoconcepto general, las diferencias significativas positivas se producen en la dimensión académica. En cuanto al efecto del programa en la autoestima de los alumnos con discapacidad, se utilizó la Escala de "Autoestima de Rosenberg" (Rosenberg, 1989), no obteniendo diferencias significativas en cuanto el género. Apareciendo diferencias significativas antes de la intervención en el caso de la variable edad en los alumnos más jóvenes, en cuanto a que desearían valorarse más, y en los alumnos con discapacidad auditiva en que no se sienten muy orgullosos de ellos mismos. Se produce una mejora en la autoestima general en cuanto a que se sienten menos inútiles tras la intervención. En relación al objetivo 3 de este trabajo, tras el análisis de los resultados y haber discutido los mismos con los autores de referencia, emergió la propuesta de orientaciones tanto para los programa de intervención en EF para la sensibilización y concienciación del alumnado hacia la inclusión como de cara a la formación específica del profesorado, como clave en este tipo de intervenciones. Creemos que el programa “Deporte Inclusivo Escuela” se convierte en un elemento transformador de la realidad, ya que responde a las necesidades detectadas a la luz de esta investigación y que vienen a dar respuesta a los distintos agentes implicados en su desarrollo. Por un lado, atiende la demanda del ámbito educativo en cuanto a las necesidades de formación del profesorado, sensibilización y concienciación del alumnado sin discapacidad, además de facilitar oportunidades de participación activa al alumno con discapacidad en las sesiones de EF. Por otro lado, satisface la demanda por parte de las instituciones deportivas del ámbito de la discapacidad en cuanto a la promoción y difusión de los deportes adaptados y paralímpicos. Por último, desde el ámbito universitario, se muestra como un recurso en la formación del alumnado del grado en Ciencias de la Actividad Física y del Deporte, por su participación directa con la discapacidad. Por estos motivos, este trabajo se muestra como un punto de partida adecuado para seguir avanzando en la investigación en esta área. ABSTRACT Physical Education (PE) seems a priori, as a suitable area to work educational interventions to facilitate the inclusion of students with disabilities. However, little is known about the potential that have adapted and Paralympic sports as content to raise awareness of students without disabilities, especially in inclusive practice context. On the other hand, teachers’ attitude and their training are presented as key in this context because it is who selects the content to work. We understand that PE have a unique opportunity in the curriculum to encourage active and effective participation of students with disabilities in class (especially at motor competence development, etc.), although this depends on factors related to the two agents. For these reasons that the PE, as actors and as content is displayed as a context for investigating the processes of inclusion of students with disabilities in education. This research aims to shed light on the questions that condition and limit this context, from a multidisciplinary perspective, with different methodologies on the three agents mentioned. The lack of accord in the literature regarding the characteristics and type of effective facilitators of awareness of students, and that is a new area as a research topic, has prompted us to work in this topic research. The first aim of this research was to design and implement a program of awareness towards disability based on adapted sports in the area of physical education for middle and high school students. Initially, a literature search was performed both nationally and internationally, in order to define the main features that brings the scientific literature in this area. On the one hand, we supported in the Paralympic School Day (IPC, 2004) educative program and on the other hand, in that review, we developed an initial approach to structure and phases. The project was presented to the Spanish Paralympic Committee and the Spanish Sports Federations for people with disabilities, in order to obtain institutional support in the form of guarantees and resources not only in economic terms but also as logistical support and dissemination. Thanks to the support of Fundación Sanitas, Liberty Seguros and Politechnical University of Madrid, we proceeded to design the program. For the development of teaching resources it was contacted experts in the field of Adapted Physical Activity and physical education and both the field of education (high school teachers and university professors) as the adapted sport national. In turn, it began to spread among the teachers of the schools in order to identify their interest in participating in the academic year (2012-2013) in the "Inclusive Sport in School" program. With the completion of the development of educational materials to schools he was visited to present the briefing where the program, as well as features and steps for its implementation are explained. The program is based on the Contact Theory (Allport, 1954) and based on adapted and Paralympic sports, raised with an inclusive approach, selecting strategies for promoting awareness and awareness to inclusion like information, contact and simulation of disability. At the meeting held at the Faculty of Sciences of Physical Activity and Sport (INEF-UPM) in February 2013, it was coordinated with the teachers implementing the program in each of the 13 schools with concrete actions such as adequacy of methodological approach in the annual planning of the teacher, the loan or the presentation of materials Paralympian among other issues. To achieve the objective 2 of this paper, to analyze the effect of the program on the various actions involved it, students without disabilities, PE teachers and students with disabilities, the date for management of the different methodological tools for before (pretest) and after the intervention (posttets). For students without disabilities (N= 1068), the effect of the intervention on the attitude towards inclusion was analyzed, using the quantitative questionnaire "Integrated Physical Education Attitude Children-Revised" (CAIPE-R; Block, 1995), after validation and adaptation to the Spanish context. The results showed significant positive changes in the attitude of the group with no structured contact with students with disabilities. This shows the beliefs towards the cooperative play was with peers with disabilities in PE classes also measured, using the questionnaire "Children's Beliefs Toward Cooperative Playing With Peers With Disabilities in Physical Education" (CBIPPD-MPE; Obrusnikova, Block, and Dillon, 2010). The development of a system of categories based on the Theory of Planned Behavior (Azjen, 1991) served as the basis for analysis of the beliefs of students without disabilities. After surgery, emerging behavioral beliefs remained, except in the case of the factors identified as barriers to inclusion. In the case of normative beliefs also they remained after surgery and regarding control beliefs, students identified the teacher as the main facilitator of inclusion. Regarding PE teachers participating in the program (N = 18), the effect of the program was analyzed their attitude toward inclusion of students with disability in PE with the questionnaire "Toward Attitude inclusion of Individual with in Physical Education "(ATISDPE-R; Kudláèek, Válková, Sherrill, Myers, and French, 2002). The results showed no significant difference occurred after surgery in the general attitude, finding some differences in certain related benefits of inclusion in students without disability relating to teachers with previous experience with disability in PE before intervention. The other dimension was analyzed the effect of the intervention on self-efficacy of teachers in the teaching of PE in inclusive terms, having used the questionnaire "Self-efficacy in PE teaching even under conditions" (SEIPE; Hutzler, Zach, and Gafni, 2005). The results showed significant differences positive in issues like being able to enhance the optimal conditions for teaching students with physical disabilities as amputation and severe visual impairment in both sports situations, such as games or activities outside the school to for teachers. Regard to gender, men earned higher values regarding women about feel more able to include students with physical disabilities in both games during recess and teaching sports technique. Teachers with less than 10 years of teaching showed more positive values as you feel able to include a student with physical disabilities in sports during their leisure time. The analysis of daily teacher shows on the one hand, emerging trends as key facilitators or barrier of the inclusion elements in PE, identifying the students without disabilities themselves, the professor, contents, materials and organization. Furthermore, the analysis of daily teacher about the contents proposed in the program. In the case of students with disabilities (N=22), the impact of the intervention program on self-concept was analyzed, with the questionnaire "Self-concept form 5" (AF5, F. Garcia and Musitu, 2001). The women showed significant differences before the intervention in family dimension, while men scored higher values in the social and physical dimensions were found. In terms of age, significant differences were found before the intervention, with higher values in younger students (12-14 years) in the physical dimension, while older children (15-17 years) showed higher values the social dimension of the questionnaire. Respect disabilities, students with motor disabilities showed better values than those with hearing impairment to the physical dimension before surgery. As for the general self-concept, positive significant differences occur in the academic dimension. As for the effect of the program on self-esteem of students with disabilities Scale "Rosenberg Self-Esteem" (Rosenberg, 1989) was used, not getting significant differences in gender. Only appear significant difference before the intervention in the case of younger students as they wish to be valued more, and students with hearing disabilities who do not feel very proud of themselves. Improved self-esteem generally occurs in that they feel less useless after surgery. With regard to the aim 3 of this research, after analyzing the results and have discussed them with the authors, it emerged the proposal of guidelines for both intervention program EF for sensitization and awareness of students towards inclusion as in the face of specific training for teachers, as key in such interventions. We believe that "Inclusive Sport Schools" program becomes a transforming element of reality, as it responds to the needs identified in the light of this research and come to respond to the various elements involved in its development. On the one hand, it meets the demand of the education sector in terms of the needs of teacher training, awareness of students without disability, and facilitates opportunities for students with disabilities for active participation in PE class. On the other hand, it meets the demand of sports institutions in the field of disability regarding the promotion and dissemination of adapted and Paralympic sports. Finally, it is shown as a resource from the university level for the training of degree in Physical Activity and Sport Science students, by its direct involvement with disability. For these reasons, this work is shown as a good starting point to further advance research in this area.

Using ecological niche models to support tree species selection for forest restoration planning in largely deforested regions

Species selection for forest restoration is often supported by expert knowledge on local distribution patterns of native tree species. This approach is not applicable to largely deforested regions unless enough data on pre-human tree species distribution is available. In such regions, ecological niche models may provide essential information to support species selection in the framework of forest restoration planning. In this study we used ecological niche models to predict habitat suitability for native tree species in "Tierra de Campos" region, an almost totally deforested area of the Duero Basin (Spain). Previously available models provide habitat suitability predictions for dominant native tree species, but including non-dominant tree species in the forest restoration planning may be desirable to promote biodiversity, specially in largely deforested areas were near seed sources are not expected. We used the Forest Map of Spain as species occurrence data source to maximize the number of modeled tree species. Penalized logistic regression was used to train models using climate and lithological predictors. Using model predictions a set of tools were developed to support species selection in forest restoration planning. Model predictions were used to build ordered lists of suitable species for each cell of the study area. The suitable species lists were summarized drawing maps that showed the two most suitable species for each cell. Additionally, potential distribution maps of the suitable species for the study area were drawn. For a scenario with two dominant species, the models predicted a mixed forest (Quercus ilex and a coniferous tree species) for almost one half of the study area. According to the models, 22 non-dominant native tree species are suitable for the study area, with up to six suitable species per cell. The model predictions pointed to Crataegus monogyna, Juniperus communis, J.oxycedrus and J.phoenicea as the most suitable non-dominant native tree species in the study area. Our results encourage further use of ecological niche models for forest restoration planning in largely deforested regions.

A computer vision approach for weeds identification through Support Vector Machines

This paper outlines an automatic computervision system for the identification of avena sterilis which is a special weed seed growing in cereal crops. The final goal is to reduce the quantity of herbicide to be sprayed as an important and necessary step for precision agriculture. So, only areas where the presence of weeds is important should be sprayed. The main problems for the identification of this kind of weed are its similar spectral signature with respect the crops and also its irregular distribution in the field. It has been designed a new strategy involving two processes: image segmentation and decision making. The image segmentation combines basic suitable image processing techniques in order to extract cells from the image as the low level units. Each cell is described by two area-based attributes measuring the relations among the crops and weeds. The decision making is based on the SupportVectorMachines and determines if a cell must be sprayed. The main findings of this paper are reflected in the combination of the segmentation and the SupportVectorMachines decision processes. Another important contribution of this approach is the minimum requirements of the system in terms of memory and computation power if compared with other previous works. The performance of the method is illustrated by comparative analysis against some existing strategies.

E-learning systems support of collaborative agreements: a theoretical model

This paper introduces a theoretical model for developing integrated degree programmes through e-learning systems as stipulated by a collaboration agreement signed by two universities. We have analysed several collaboration agreements between universities at the national, European, and transatlantic level as well as various e-learning frameworks. A conceptual model, a business model, and the architecture design are presented as part of the theoretical model. The paper presents a way of implementing e-learning systems as a tool to support inter-institutional degree collaborations, from the signing of the collaborative agreement to the implementation of the necessary services. In order to show how the theory can be tested one sample scenario is presented.

Evolution not revolution of farming systemswill best feed and green the world

The challenge to properly feed a world population of 9.2 billion by 2050, that must be achieved on essentially currently cropped area, requires that food production be increased by 70%. This large increase can only be achieved by combinations of greater crop yields and more intensive cropping adapted to local conditions and availability of inputs. Farming systems are dynamic and continuously adapt to changing ecological, environmental and social conditions, while achieving greater production and resource-use efficiency by application of science and technology. This article argues that the solution to feed and green the world in 2050 is to support this evolution more strongly by providing farmers with necessary information, inputs, and recognition. There is no revolutionary alternative. Proposals to transform agriculture to low-input and organic systems would, because of low productiv- ity, exacerbate the challenge if applied in small part, and ensure failure if applied more widely. The challenge is, however, great. Irrigation, necessary to increase cropping intensity in many areas cannot be extended much more widely than at present, and it is uncertain if the current rate of crop yield increase can be maintained. Society needs greater recognition of the food-supply problem and must increase funding and support for agricultural research while it attends to issues of food waste and over consumption that can make valuable reductions to food demand from agriculture

Provision of ecological infrastructures to increase pollinators and other beneficial organisms in rainfed crops in Central Spain

In sustainable intensive agriculture, the biodiversity of monoculture fields can be increased by managing the field margins to provide ecological infrastructures that serve as refuges and resources for beneficial organisms (pollinators and natural enemies). In the present work we summarize two years of field trials following the goal to increase biodiversity of beneficial fauna in a barley field in Central Spain by sowing different herbaceous mixtures in the field margins. The presence of arthropods visiting flowers on plots sown with different types of seed mixtures and unsown natural flora (control plot) was compared by visual sampling every week between April and June. The results showed that a combination of herbaceous big-size seeds was the most successful mixture emerging under our experimental conditions and achieved a higher number of visits of beneficial arthropods than the unsown natural vegetation.

Policy processes and collective action in water reforms: the cases of Nicaragua and Suriname

Las reformas de agua en países en desarrollo suelen llevarse a cabo junto con cambios institucionales más profundos o, incluso, acompañadas de cambios constitucionales o de régimen político. Por lo tanto, los marcos institucionales adaptados a países gobernados sujetos al estado de derecho pueden no ser apropiados para contextos gobernados fundamentalmente, al menos en sus inicios, por instituciones informales o poco maduras. Esta tesis toma las reformas de agua como punto de partida y pretende contribuir a la literatura mediante una serie de análisis empíricos tanto del ámbito general como del plano individual o sujeto personal de la política del agua. En el ámbito general, el foco se pone en los factores que explican el fallo de la acción colectiva en dos contextos diferentes: 1) en la implementación de la nueva Ley de Aguas de Nicaragua y 2) en el mantenimiento y revitalización de las instituciones de riego en Surinam. En el plano del individuo, la investigación se centra en las decisiones de los usuarios de los recursos y analiza el papel crítico de las variables sociales para la gestión de los recursos comunes. Para ello, el método de investigación utilizado es mixto, combinando el análisis de entrevistas, encuestas y experimentos. En el ámbito general, los resultados muestran que las principales barreras para la implementación de la nueva Ley de Aguas de Nicaragua podrían tener su reflejo en el lenguaje de la Ley y, por tanto, en la forma en la que se definen y configuran las instituciones incluidas en dicha Ley. Así, la investigación demuestra que la implementación de políticas no puede ser estudiada o entendida sin tener en cuenta tanto el diseño de la propia política como el marco socio-ecológico en el que se enmarca. El contexto específico de Nicaragua remarca la importancia de considerar tanto las instituciones formales como informales en los procesos de transición política. A pesar de que las reformas de agua requieren plazos largos para su implementación, el hecho de que exista una diferencia entre las reglas tal cual se definen formalmente y las reglas que operan en la realidad merece una mayor consideración en el diseño de políticas basadas fundamentalmente en instituciones formales. En el ámbito de la conducta individual, el análisis de la acción colectiva ofrece una serie de observaciones empíricas interesantes. En el caso de Nicaragua, los resultados indican que la intensidad de las relaciones sociales, el tipo de agentes dispuestos a proporcionar apoyo social y el nivel de confianza en la comunidad son factores que explican de manera significativa la participación en la comunidad. Sin embargo, el hecho de que la gestión colectiva de riego se produzca, en la mayoría de casos, en torno a lazos familiares sugiere que las variables de capital social críticas se definen en gran medida en la esfera familiar, siendo difícil que se extiendan fuera de estos nexos. El análisis experimental de los resultados de un juego de uso de recurso común y contribución al bien público muestra que las preferencias pro-sociales de los individuos y la heterogeneidad del grupo en términos de composición por sexo son factores que explican significativamente los resultados y las decisiones de apropiación a lo largo del juego. En términos del diseño de las políticas, es fundamental tener en cuenta las dinámicas de participación y uso de los recursos comunes de manera que los niveles de cooperación puedan mantenerse en el largo plazo, lo cual, como se observa en el caso de Surinam, no es siempre posible. Finalmente, el caso de Surinam es un ejemplo ilustrativo de los procesos de acción colectiva en economías en transición. El análisis del fallo de la acción colectiva en Surinam muestra que los procesos políticos vinculados al período colonial y de independencia explican en gran medida la falta de claridad en las reglas operacionales y colectivas que gobiernan la gestión de los sistemas de riego y drenaje. Los resultados empíricos sugieren que a pesar de que la acción colectiva para la provisión de los servicios de riego y drenaje estaba bien establecida bajo el régimen colonial, la auto-organización no prosperó en un contexto dependiente del apoyo externo y regido fundamentalmente por reglas diseñadas al nivel competencial del gobierno central. El sistema socio-ecológico que se desarrolló durante la transición post-colonial favoreció, así, la emergencia de comportamientos oportunistas, y posteriormente la inoperancia de los Water Boards (WBs) creados en la época colonial. En este sentido, cualquier intento por revitalizar los WBs y fomentar el desarrollo de la auto-organización de los usuarios necesitará abordar los problemas relacionados con los patrones demográficos, incluyendo la distribución de la tierra, el diseño de instituciones y la falta de confianza en el gobierno, además de las inversiones típicas en infraestructura y sistemas de información hidrológicos. El liderazgo del gobierno, aportando empuje de arriba-abajo, es, además, otro elemento imprescindible en Surinam. ABSTRACT Water reforms in developing countries take place along deeper institutional and even constitutional. Therefore, institutional frameworks that might result in positive outcomes in countries governed by the rule of law might not fit in contexts governed mainly by informal or immature institutions. This thesis takes water reforms as the starting point and aims to contribute to the literature by presenting several conceptual and empirical analyses at both general and individual levels. At the general national level, the focus is on the factors explaining failure of collective action in two different settings: 1) in the implementation of the new Nicaraguan Water Law and 2) in sustaining and revitalizing irrigation institutions in Suriname. At the individual level, the research focuses on the actions of resource users and analyzes the critical role of social variables for common pool resources management. For this purpose, the research presented in this thesis makes use of a mixed-method approach, combining interviews, surveys and experimental methods. Overall, the results show that major barriers for the implementation of the new Nicaraguan Water Law have its reflection on the language of the Law and, therefore, on the way institutions are defined and configured. In this sense, our study shows that implementation cannot fruitfully be studied and understood without taking into account both the policy design and the social-ecological context in which it is framed. The specific setting of Nicaragua highlights the relevance of considering both formal and informal institutions when promoting policy transitions. Despite the unquestionable fact that water reforms implementation needs long periods of time, there is still a gap between the rules on paper and the rules on the ground that deserves further attention when proposing policy changes on the basis of formal institutions. At the level of the individual agent, the analysis of collective action provides a number of interesting empirical insights. In the case of Nicaragua, I found that the intensity of social networks, the type of agents willing to provide social support and the level of trust in the community are all significant factors in explaining collective action at community level. However, the fact that most collective irrigation relies on family ties suggests that critical social capital variables might be defined within the family sphere and making it difficult to go beyond it. Experimental research combining a common pool resource and a public good game in Nicaragua shows that individuals’ pro-social traits and group heterogeneity in terms of sex composition are significant variables in explaining efficiency outcomes and effort decisions along the game. Thus, with regard to policy design, it is fundamental to consider carefully the dynamics of agents' participation and use of common pool resources, for sustaining cooperation in the long term, which, as seen in the case and Surinam, is not always possible. The case of Suriname provides a rich setting for the analysis of collective action in transition economies. The analysis of decay of collective irrigation in Suriname shows that the lack of clear operational and collective choice rules appear to be rooted in deeper political processes that date back to the colonial period. The empirical findings suggest that despite collective action for the provision of irrigation and drainage services was well established during the colonial period, self-organization did not flourish in a context governed by colonial state-crafted rules and mostly dependent on external support. The social-ecological system developed during the post-colonial transition process favored the emergence of opportunistic behavior. In this respect, any attempt to revitalize WBs and support self-organization will need to tackle the problems derived from demographic patterns, including land allocation, institutions design and government distrust, in addition to the typical investments in both physical infrastructure and hydrological information systems. The leadership role of the government, acting as a top-down trigger, is another essential element in Suriname.

Water scarcity and climate change impact and vulnerability in irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean river basins

Actualmente, la escasez de agua constituye un importante problema en muchos lugares del mundo. El crecimiento de la población, la creciente necesidad de alimentos, el desarrollo socio-económico y el cambio climático ejercen una importante y cada vez mayor presión sobre los recursos hídricos, a la que muchos países van a tener que enfrentarse en los próximos anos. La región Mediterránea es una de las regiones del mundo de mayor escasez de recursos hídricos, y es además una de las zonas más vulnerables al cambio climático. La mayoría de estudios sobre cambio climático prevén mayores temperaturas y una disminución de las precipitaciones, y una creciente escasez de agua debida a la disminución de recursos disponibles y al aumento de las demandas de riego. En el contexto actual de desarrollo de políticas se demanda cada vez más una mayor consideración del cambio climático en el marco de las políticas sectoriales. Sin embargo, los estudios enfocados a un solo sector no reflejan las múltiples dimensiones del los efectos del cambio climático. Numerosos estudios científicos han demostrado que el cambio climático es un fenómeno de naturaleza multi-dimensional y cuyos efectos se transmiten a múltiples escalas. Por tanto, es necesaria la producción de estudios y herramientas de análisis capaces de reflejar todas estas dimensiones y que contribuyan a la elaboración de políticas robustas en un contexto de cambio climático. Esta investigación pretende aportar una visión global de la problemática de la escasez de agua y los impactos, la vulnerabilidad y la adaptación al cambio climático en el contexto de la región mediterránea. La investigación presenta un marco integrado de modelización que se va ampliando progresivamente en un proceso secuencial y multi-escalar en el que en cada etapa se incorpora una nueva dimensión. La investigación consta de cuatro etapas que se abordan a lo largo de cuatro capítulos. En primer lugar, se estudia la vulnerabilidad económica de las explotaciones de regadío del Medio Guadiana, en España. Para ello, se utiliza un modelo de programación matemática en combinación con un modelo econométrico. A continuación, en la segunda etapa, se utiliza un modelo hidro-económico que incluye un modelo de cultivo para analizar los procesos que tienen lugar a escala de cultivo, explotación y cuenca teniendo en cuenta distintas escalas geográficas y de toma de decisiones. Esta herramienta permite el análisis de escenarios de cambio climático y la evaluación de posibles medidas de adaptación. La tercera fase consiste en el análisis de las barreras que dificultan la aplicación de procesos de adaptación para lo cual se analizan las redes socio-institucionales en la cuenca. Finalmente, la cuarta etapa aporta una visión sobre la escasez de agua y el cambio climático a escala nacional y regional mediante el estudio de distintos escenarios de futuro plausibles y los posibles efectos de las políticas en la escasez de agua. Para este análisis se utiliza un modelo econométrico de datos de panel para la región mediterránea y un modelo hidro-económico que se aplica a los casos de estudio de España y Jordania. Los resultados del estudio ponen de relieve la importancia de considerar múltiples escalas y múltiples dimensiones en el estudio de la gestión de los recursos hídricos y la adaptación al cambio climático en los contextos mediterráneos de escasez de agua estudiados. Los resultados muestran que los impactos del cambio climático en la cuenca del Guadiana y en el conjunto de España pueden comprometer la sostenibilidad del regadío y de los ecosistemas. El análisis a escala de cuenca hidrográfica resalta la importancia de las interacciones entre los distintos usuarios del agua y en concreto entre distintas comunidades de regantes, así como la necesidad de fortalecer el papel de las instituciones y de fomentar la creación de una visión común en la cuenca para facilitar la aplicación de los procesos de adaptación. Asimismo, los resultados de este trabajo evidencian también la capacidad y el papel fundamental de las políticas para lograr un desarrollo sostenible y la adaptación al cambio climático es regiones de escasez de agua tales como la región mediterránea. Especialmente, este trabajo pone de manifiesto el potencial de la Directiva Marco del Agua de la Unión Europea para lograr una efectiva adaptación al cambio climático. Sin embargo, en Jordania, además de la adaptación al cambio climático, es preciso diseñar estrategias de desarrollo sostenible más ambiciosas que contribuyan a reducir el riesgo futuro de escasez de agua. ABSTRACT Water scarcity is becoming a major concern in many parts of the world. Population growth, increasing needs for food production, socio-economic development and climate change represent pressures on water resources that many countries around the world will have to deal in the coming years. The Mediterranean region is one of the most water scarce regions of the world and is considered a climate change hotspot. Most projections of climate change envisage an increase in temperatures and a decrease in precipitation and a resulting reduction in water resources availability as a consequence of both reduced water availability and increased irrigation demands. Current policy development processes require the integration of climate change concerns into sectoral policies. However, sector-oriented studies often fail to address all the dimensions of climate change implications. Climate change research in the last years has evidenced the need for more integrated studies and methodologies that are capable of addressing the multi-scale and multi-dimensional nature of climate change. This research attempts to provide a comprehensive view of water scarcity and climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in Mediterranean contexts. It presents an integrated modelling framework that is progressively enlarged in a sequential multi-scale process in which a new dimension of climate change and water resources is addressed at every stage. It is comprised of four stages, each one explained in a different chapter. The first stage explores farm-level economic vulnerability in the Spanish Guadiana basin using a mathematical programming model in combination with an econometric model. Then, in a second stage, the use of a hydro-economic modelling framework that includes a crop growth model allows for the analysis of crop, farm and basin level processes taking into account different geographical and decision-making scales. This integrated tool is used for the analysis of climate change scenarios and for the assessment of potential adaptation options. The third stage includes the analysis of barriers to the effective implementation of adaptation processes based on socioinstitutional network analysis. Finally, a regional and country level perspective of water scarcity and climate change is provided focusing on different possible socio-economic development pathways and the effect of policies on future water scarcity. For this analysis, a panel-data econometric model and a hydro-economic model are applied for the analysis of the Mediterranean region and country level case studies in Spain and Jordan. The overall results of the study demonstrate the value of considering multiple scales and multiple dimensions in water management and climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean water scarce contexts analysed. Results show that climate change impacts in the Guadiana basin and in Spain may compromise the sustainability of irrigation systems and ecosystems. The analysis at the basin level highlights the prominent role of interactions between different water users and irrigation districts and the need to strengthen institutional capacity and common understanding in the basin to enhance the implementation of adaptation processes. The results of this research also illustrate the relevance of water policies in achieving sustainable development and climate change adaptation in water scarce areas such as the Mediterranean region. Specifically, the EU Water Framework Directive emerges as a powerful trigger for climate change adaptation. However, in Jordan, outreaching sustainable development strategies are required in addition to climate change adaptation to reduce future risk of water scarcity.

Indicators of sustainability of agriculture and livestock in Spain - Indicadores de sostenibilidad de la agricultura y ganadería española

Sustainability is an adjective used to characterize agriculture according to the degree of fulfillment of goals. Those goals are related to agro-ecological, environmental and socio-economic dimensions. Sustainability is a dynamic and temporal character. In absolute terms there is not an ending value because it changes as its dimensions make it. Spain is one of the main agricultural countries of the European Union both in terms of crop land and value of productions. The object of this study is to present a methodology of sustainability account to be incorporated into national statistical and to assess their performance in the course of the years. For that reason the data sources used have been the statistics of the Department of Agriculture and from others database. We presented a set of indicators of sustainability and its evaluation in a time series of at least 30 years. The trend analysis offers the evolution of the numerical values of the indicators in terms of efficiency, physical units used for a unit of product or its value in euros. The analyzed crops have been: wheat, barley, maize, sunflower, sugar beet, wine grape, olive oil, citrus, melon and tomato. Physical indicators were: land, water, energy, erosion, soil organic matter, and carbon balance; socio-economic indicators were: agricultural final production, prices, income, employment and use of fertilizers. In general, all crops increased their productive efficiency, higher in irrigated than on dry land. Spanish agricultural carbon sequestration capacity has multiplied by five in the last seventy years, as a result of the increase in the productivity of crops, in terms of total biomass and the modification of the soil management techniques. Livestock sector presents data of pork, broilers and laying hen. Those showed an improvement in efficiency and economic indicators. Overall we can say that Spanish agriculture and livestock subsector have a tendency towards sustainability, being its main threats extreme meteorological factors and the instability of todays markets.

Analyzing climate change adaptation in the agriculture and water sectors: screening risks and opportunities.

As part of the Mediterranean area, the Guadiana basin in Spain is particularly exposed to increasing water stress due to climate change. Future warmer and drier climate will have negative implications for the sustainability of water resources and irrigation agriculture, the main socio- economic sector in the region. This paper illustrates a systematic analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation in the Guadiana basin based on a two-stage modeling approach. First, an integrated hydro-economic modeling framework was used to simulate the potential effects of regional climate change scenarios for the period 2000-2069. Second, a participatory multi-criteria technique, namely the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), was applied to rank potential adaptation measures based on agreed criteria. Results show that, in the middle-long run and under severe climate change, reduced water availability, lower crop yields and increased irrigation demands might lead to water shortages, crop failure, and up to ten percent of income losses to irrigators. AHP results show how private farming adaptation measures, including improving irrigation efficiency and adjusting crop varieties, are preferred to public adaptation measures, such as building new dams. The integrated quantitative and qualitative methodology used in this research can be considered a socially-based valuable tool to support adaptation decision-making.

Participatory modelling to support decision making in water management under uncertainty: Two comparative case studies in the Guadiana river basin, Spain.

A participatory modelling process has been conducted in two areas of the Guadiana river (the upper and the middle sub-basins), in Spain, with the aim of providing support for decision making in the water management field. The area has a semi-arid climate where irrigated agriculture plays a key role in the economic development of the region and accounts for around 90% of water use. Following the guidelines of the European Water Framework Directive, we promote stakeholder involvement in water management with the aim to achieve an improved understanding of the water system and to encourage the exchange of knowledge and views between stakeholders in order to help building a shared vision of the system. At the same time, the resulting models, which integrate the different sectors and views, provide some insight of the impacts that different management options and possible future scenarios could have. The methodology is based on a Bayesian network combined with an economic model and, in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, with a crop model. The resulting integrated modelling framework is used to simulate possible water policy, market and climate scenarios to find out the impacts of those scenarios on farm income and on the environment. At the end of the modelling process, an evaluation questionnaire was filled by participants in both sub-basins. Results show that this type of processes are found very helpful by stakeholders to improve the system understanding, to understand each others views and to reduce conflict when it exists. In addition, they found the model an extremely useful tool to support management. The graphical interface, the quantitative output and the explicit representation of uncertainty helped stakeholders to better understand the implications of the scenario tested. Finally, the combination of different types of models was also found very useful, as it allowed exploring in detail specific aspects of the water management problems.

Integrated assessment of policy interventions for promoting sustainable irrigation in semi-arid environments: A hydro-economic modeling approach

Sustaining irrigated agriculture to meet food production needs while maintaining aquatic ecosystems is at the heart of many policy debates in various parts of the world, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. Researchers and practitioners are increasingly calling for integrated approaches, and policy-makers are progressively supporting the inclusion of ecological and social aspects in water management programs. This paper contributes to this policy debate by providing an integrated economic-hydrologic modeling framework that captures the socio-economic and environmental effects of various policy initiatives and climate variability. This modeling integration includes a risk-based economic optimization model and a hydrologic water management simulation model that have been specified for the Middle Guadiana basin, a vulnerable drought-prone agro-ecological area with highly regulated river systems in southwest Spain. Namely, two key water policy interventions were investigated: the implementation of minimum environmental flows (supported by the European Water Framework Directive, EU WFD), and a reduction in the legal amount of water delivered for irrigation (planned measure included in the new Guadiana River Basin Management Plan, GRBMP, still under discussion). Results indicate that current patterns of excessive water use for irrigation in the basin may put environmental flow demands at risk, jeopardizing the WFD s goal of restoring the ?good ecological status? of water bodies by 2015. Conflicts between environmental and agricultural water uses will be stressed during prolonged dry episodes, and particularly in summer low-flow periods, when there is an important increase of crop irrigation water requirements. Securing minimum stream flows would entail a substantial reduction in irrigation water use for rice cultivation, which might affect the profitability and economic viability of small rice-growing farms located upstream in the river. The new GRBMP could contribute to balance competing water demands in the basin and to increase economic water productivity, but might not be sufficient to ensure the provision of environmental flows as required by the WFD. A thoroughly revision of the basin s water use concession system for irrigation seems to be needed in order to bring the GRBMP in line with the WFD objectives. Furthermore, the study illustrates that social, economic, institutional, and technological factors, in addition to bio-physical conditions, are important issues to be considered for designing and developing water management strategies. The research initiative presented in this paper demonstrates that hydro-economic models can explicitly integrate all these issues, constituting a valuable tool that could assist policy makers for implementing sustainable irrigation policies.

Exploring public support for climate change adaptation policies in the Mediterranean region: A case study in Southern Spain.

The understanding of public perception to climate change is an essential factor in the development of adaptation policies. In the Mediterranean, agriculture, as the largest consumer of freshwater, has the highest potential to suffer adverse impacts of climate change. Future water availability predictions, conflicting interests among stakeholders and an increasing social concern about the environment further aggravate the situation. Therefore studying public support for adaptation policies can play a key role in successfully adapting the sector. The study site, approximately 36,000 hectares of rice fields in Seville (Spain), exemplifies an area in the Mediterranean where water needs to be carefully re-allocated in view of the limitations anticipated by climate change scenarios; in particular where conflicts will arise between water for agriculture and water for ‘natural’ ecosystems. This paper proposes an ex-ante evaluation of the societal support for adaptation policies. A survey of 117 respondents was conducted and a Logit model utilized to analyze which predictors positively or negatively affect people's support for adaptation policies. Results suggest that the main barriers to support these policies were economic losses and low climate change concern whereas the primary motivation factor was environmental commitment. Additionally, the main socio-demographic determinants were gender, age, education and family structure. In order to improve societal support for climate change adaptation policies, implementing educational and awareness raising initiatives will be the main challenges for policy makers to overcome.

Water option contracts for reducing water supply risks: an application to the Tagus-Segura Transfer

El agua es un recurso cada vez más escaso y valioso. Por ello, los recursos hídricos disponibles deben asignarse de una forma eficiente entre los diferentes usos. El cambio climático aumentará la frecuencia y severidad de los eventos extremos, y podría incrementar la demanda de agua de los cultivos. El empleo de mecanismos flexibles de asignación de agua puede ser imprescindible para hacer frente a este aumento en la variabilidad del balance hídrico y para asegurar que los riesgos de suministro, y no solo los recursos, son compartidos de manera eficiente entre los usuarios. Los mercados de agua permiten la reasignación de los recursos hídricos, favoreciendo su transferencia desde los usos de menor a los de mayor valor. Diferentes tipos de mercados de agua se han establecido en diferentes partes del mundo, ayudando a los participantes a afrontar los problemas de escasez de agua en esas zonas. En España, los intercambios de agua están permitidos desde 1999, aunque la participación de los usuarios en el mercado ha sido limitada. Hay varios aspectos de los mercados de agua en España que deben mejorarse. Esta tesis, además de proponer una serie de cambios en el marco regulatorio, propone la introducción de contratos de opción de agua como una posible mejora. La principal ventaja de este tipo de contratos es la estabilidad legal e institucional que éstos proporcionan tanto a compradores como vendedores. Para apoyar esta propuesta, se han llevado a cabo diferentes análisis que muestran el potencial de los contratos de opción como herramienta de reducción del riesgo asociado a una oferta de agua inestable. La Cuenca del Segura (Sureste de España), la Cuenca del Tajo y el Acueducto Tajo- Segura han sido seleccionados como casos de estudio. Tres análisis distintos aplicados a dicha región se presentan en esta tesis: a) una evaluación de los contratos de opción como mecanismo para reducir los riesgos de disponibilidad de agua sufridos por los regantes en la Cuenca del Segura; b) un marco teórico para analizar las preferencias de los regantes por diferentes mecanismos de gestión del riesgo de disponibilidad de agua, su disposición a pagar por ellos y los precios aproximados de estos instrumentos (seguro de sequía y contratos de opción de agua); y c) una evaluación del papel de los contratos de opción en las decisiones de aprovisionamiento de agua de una comunidad de regantes ante una oferta de agua incierta. Los resultados muestran el potencial de reducción del riesgo de los contratos de opción para regantes en España, pero pueden ser extrapolados a otros sectores o regiones. Las principales conclusiones de esta tesis son: a) la agricultura será uno de los sectores más afectados por el cambio climático. Si los precios del agua aumentan, la rentabilidad de los cultivos puede caer hasta niveles negativos, lo que podría dar lugar al abandono de cultivos de regadío en algunas zonas de España. Las políticas de cambio climático y de agua deben estar estrechamente coordinadas para asegurar un uso de agua eficiente y la rentabilidad de la agricultura; b) aunque los mercados de agua han ayudado a algunos usuarios a afrontar problemas de disponibilidad del recurso en momentos de escasez, hay varios aspectos que deben mejorarse; c) es necesario desarrollar mercados de agua más flexibles y estables para garantizar una asignación eficiente de los recursos entre los usuarios de agua; d) los resultados muestran los beneficios derivados del establecimiento de un contrato de opción entre usuarios de agua del Tajo y del Segura para reducir el riesgo de disponibilidad de agua en la cuenca receptora; e) la disposición a pagar de los regantes por un contrato de opción de agua o un seguro de sequía hidrológica, que representa el valor que tienen estos mecanismos para aquellos usuarios de agua que se enfrentan a riesgos relacionados con la disponibilidad del recurso, es consistente con los resultados obtenidos en estudios previos y superior al precio de mercado de estos instrumentos, lo que favorece la viabilidad de estos mecanismos de gestión del riesgo ; y f) los contratos de opción podrían ayudar a optimizar las decisiones de aprovisionamiento de agua bajo incertidumbre, proporcionando más estabilidad y flexibilidad que los mercados temporales de agua. ABSTRACT Water is becoming increasingly scarce and valuable. Thus, existing water resources need to be efficiently allocated among users. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme events, and it may also increase irrigated crops' water demand. The implementation of flexible allocation mechanisms could be essential to cope with this increased variability of the water balance and ensure that supply risks, and not only water resources, are also efficiently shared and managed. Water markets allow for the reallocation of water resources from low to high value uses. Different water trading mechanisms have been created in different parts of the world and have helped users to alleviate water scarcity problems in those areas. In Spain, water trading is allowed since 1999, although market activity has been limited. There are several issues in the Spanish water market that should be improved. This thesis, besides proposing several changes in the legislative framework, proposes the introduction of water option contracts as a potential improvement. The main advantage for both buyer and seller derived from an option contract is the institutional and legal stability it provides. To support this proposal, different analyses have been carried out that show the potential of option contracts as a risk reduction tool to manage water supply instability. The Segura Basin (Southeast Spain), the Tagus Basin and the Tagus-Segura inter-basin Transfer have been selected as the case study. Three different analyses applied to this region are presented in this thesis: a) an evaluation of option contracts as a mechanisms to reduce water supply availability risks in the Segura Basin; b) a theoretical framework for analyzing farmer’s preferences for different water supply risk management tools and farmers’ willingness to pay for them, together with the assessment of the prices of these mechanisms (drought insurance and water option contracts); and c) an evaluation of the role of option contracts in water procurement decisions under uncertainty. Results show the risk-reduction potential of option contracts for the agricultural sector in Spain, but these results can be extrapolated to other sectors or regions. The main conclusions of the thesis are: a) agriculture would be one of the most affected sectors by climate change. With higher water tariffs, crop’s profitability can drop to negative levels, which may result in the abandoning of the crop in many areas. Climate change and water policies must be closely coordinated to ensure efficient water use and crops’ profitability; b) although Spanish water markets have alleviated water availability problems for some users during water scarcity periods, there are several issues that should be improved; c) more flexible and stable water market mechanisms are needed to allocate water resources and water supply risks among competing users; d) results show the benefits derived from the establishment of an inter-basin option contract between water users in the Tagus and the Segura basins for reducing water supply availability risks in the recipient area; e) irrigators’ willingness to pay for option contracts or drought insurance, that represent the value that this kind of trading mechanisms has for water users facing water supply reliability problems, are consistent with results obtained in previous works and higher than the prices of this risk management tools, which shows the feasibility of these mechanisms; and f) option contracts would help to optimize water procurement decisions under uncertainty, providing more flexibility and stability than the spot market.