An ecological approach to anomaly detection: the EIA Model.

The presented work proposes a new approach for anomaly detection. This approach is based on changes in a population of evolving agents under stress. If conditions are appropriate, changes in the population (modeled by the bioindicators) are representative of the alterations to the environment. This approach, based on an ecological view, improves functionally traditional approaches to the detection of anomalies. To verify this assertion, experiments based on Network Intrussion Detection Systems are presented. The results are compared with the behaviour of other bioinspired approaches and machine learning techniques.

Refining predictions of iberian plant distribution: lessons from p. nigra and p. sylvestris palaeoecological-based habitat suitability models

In recent years, challenged by the climate scenarios put forward by the IPCC and its potential impact on plant distribution, numerous predictive techniques -including the so called habitat suitability models (HSM)- have been developed. Yet, as the output of the different methods produces different distribution areas, developing validation tools are strong needs to reduce uncertainties. Focused in the Iberian Peninsula, we propose a palaeo-based method to increase the robustness of the HSM, by developing an ecological approach to understand the mismatches between the palaeoecological information and the projections of the HSMs. Here, we present the result of (1) investigating causal relationships between environmental variables and presence of Pinus sylvestris L. and P. nigra Arn. available from the 3rd Spanish Forest Inventory, (2) developing present and past presence-predictions through the MaxEnt model for 6 and 21 kyr BP, and (3) assessing these models through comparisons with biomized palaeoecological data available from the European Pollen Database for the Iberian Peninsula.

Método de análisis diacrónico para la intervención en el alojamiento con criterios ecológicos. El caso de Madrid 1940–2100

Las evidencias del impacto sobre el medio ambiente asociado al funcionamiento de las ciudades hacen que sea urgente proponer medidas que reduzcan este consumo y mejoren la eficiencia del metabolismo urbano. La existencia de límites en la disponibilidad de recursos materiales y energéticos, plantea actualmente un reto importante al ser humano: ¿son posibles otras formas de organización más adecuadas a esta condición de limitación? Para dar respuesta, resulta fundamental conocer cómo interactuarán nuestros sistemas urbanos en un modelo económico de continuo desarrollo, con la población que alojan, y si podrán adaptarse a la capacidad de carga limitada del Planeta, evitando futuras situaciones de colapso anunciadas desde distintos ámbitos científicos. En ese contexto, la tesis formula un método de análisis del alojamiento que, mediante la evaluación a largo plazo, permita proponer medidas de intervención para reducir el consumo de recursos asociado a su funcionamiento. Se parte de un enfoque ecológico para definir el alojamiento como una parte fundamental del sistema urbano, que está compuesto por tres elementos: habitantes, viviendas y recursos naturales; por tanto, para reducir los impactos asociados al alojamiento es necesario tener en cuenta la diferente naturaleza de estos elementos y el carácter dinámico de las relaciones que se producen entre ellos. La Ecología, a través del estudio de los ecosistemas, ha identificado estrategias de supervivencia y adaptación ante los cambios y perturbaciones. La similitud entre los elementos de un ecosistema (población y soporte) y los del alojamiento (habitantes, viviendas y recursos naturales) permite verificar que la aplicación de estas estrategias al alojamiento puede conducir a situaciones más deseables en la relación de los sistemas urbanos con su entorno A partir de esta hipótesis, se propone un método de análisis diacrónico1 o a largo plazo, para conocer la evolución en el tiempo del alojamiento a través de la cuantificación de una serie de indicadores descriptivos de los habitantes, las viviendas y los recursos naturales. La aplicación de este método a un sistema urbano permitiría conocer las características de los elementos del sistema y, para un ámbito temporal de futuro, prever su evolución, identificar escenarios no deseables y proponer medidas de intervención que corrijan anticipadamente estas situaciones y eviten impactos ambientales innecesarios. La validación del método de análisis se realiza mediante la aplicación al caso de Madrid en periodo retrospectivo (de 1940 a 2010) A partir del estudio de la evolución en Madrid de los indicadores seleccionados, se proponen medidas de intervención en el alojamiento basadas en estrategias ecológicas que habrían conducido a una evolución alternativa con un impacto menor sobre el medio ambiente que la situación actual. El método de análisis se aplica con carácter prospectivo definiendo tres escenarios de futuro para Madrid hasta 2100. Para cada uno de ellos se analiza la evolución previsible de los indicadores y se proponen diferentes medidas de intervención que, desde el punto de vista ecológico, conducirían a una situación más adecuada. La tesis concluye en el interés de este método de análisis diacrónico que permite estimar posibilidades en la evolución futura del alojamiento, identificar las necesidades de recursos para responder a las demandas de los habitantes y, desde un enfoque ecológico, definir, cuantificar y evaluar posibles medidas de intervención que reduzcan los impactos ambientales. El método, por tanto, es una herramienta de interés para la toma de decisiones en la intervención en el alojamiento y en la planificación urbana a largo plazo. ABSTRACT Evidence of the impact on the environment associated with the operation of cities make it urgent to propose measures to reduce energy consumption and improve the efficiency of urban metabolism. The limited availability of materials and energy resources currently poses a significant challenge to human beings: are more appropriate forms of organization for this limitation possible? In response, it is essential to know how our urban systems with the population they host will interact in an economic model of continuous development and whether they can adapt to the limited endurance capacity of the planet, thus avoiding future collapse situations which are being announced from different scientific fields. In this context, the thesis puts forward a method of housing analysis that by a long term assessment will enable to propose intervention measures to reduce resource consumption associated with its operation. The thesis is based on an ecological approach to identify housing as a fundamental part of the urban system, which is composed of three elements: inhabitants, homes and natural resources. Therefore, in order to reduce the impacts associated with housing it is necessary to consider the characteristics of these elements and the dynamic nature of the relationships among them. Ecology, through the analysis of ecosystems, has identified strategies for survival and adaptation to changes and disturbances. The similarity between the elements of an ecosystem (population and support) and housing (inhabitants, homes and natural resources) enables to verify that the implementation of these strategies to housing can lead to better situations in the relationship existing between urban systems with their environment. From this hypothesis, a diachronic or long term analysis method is proposed to know the evolution of housing over time through the quantification of a descriptive indicators series of inhabitants, homes and natural resources. The implementation of this method to a urban system would allow better knowledge of the characteristics of these elements and forecast their development, identify undesirable scenarios and propose early intervention measures to correct these situations and avoid unnecessary environmental impacts. The validation of the method of analysis has been proved in the city of Madrid for the years 1940-2010. From the analysis of the evolution of the indicators selected, accommodation intervention measures are proposed based on ecological strategies that would have led to an alternative development having less impact on the environment than that of the current situation. The analysis method is implemented prospectively defining three future scenarios for the city of Madrid until 2100. The likely evolution of the indicators are analyzed for each scenario and various intervention measures that would lead to a better situation from an ecological point of view are proposed. The thesis conclusion states the interest of this diachronic analysis method to estimate potential future developments in the housing field, identify resource requirements to meet the demands of the citizens and, from an ecological approach, define, quantify and assess possible intervention measures to reduce environmental impacts. The method, therefore, is an interesting tool for decision-making process as for the intervention in housing and urban planning in the long term.

Emergencia y convergencia de las corrientes urbanísticas alternativas al desarrollo disperso. Europa y los EE.UU. 1980/2010

La presente tesis doctoral identifica el reciente fenómeno de la emergenciai de corrientes urbanísticas que actúan en la periferia urbana a partir de una concepción del diseño urbano que propugna modelos más compactos, a escala humana, de carácter integral y sostenible, como alternativa al desarrollo disperso y difusoii que caracteriza en gran medida a la ciudad contemporánea. Se develan las diferencias de origen y las coincidencias entre las distintas líneas de pensamiento que definen a estas emergentes corrientes alternativas, situándolas dentro de determinados enfoques planteados en la presente tesis, y demostrando con ello, las progresivas áreas de convergencia que permiten su ordenamiento como fenómeno histórico común. Estas distintas líneas de pensamiento, que derivan en las corrientes urbanísticas alternativas, se manifiestan primeramente como reacción a las operaciones modernistas de la posguerra, pero crecientemente expresan una visión contestataria a la expansión urbana descontrolada iii, de bajas densidades, zonificación excluyente y dependiente del automóvil; modelo asociado a las autopistas urbanas, los llamados nuevos artefactos urbanos y las grandes parcelas destinadas a proyectos habitacionales. Una realidad expresada en variados contextos en el ámbito de la globalización económica y cultural que, en gran medida, se singulariza como responsable de las profundas transformaciones urbanas, de la consecuente gradual pérdida de habitabilidad en las ciudades y del impacto sobre el medio natural; cuestión a tratar en el “Marco conceptual” referido al contexto y problema de la tesis. Se estudian los planteamientos fundamentales que postulan estas corrientes alternativas en el contexto de la expansión urbana horizontal, con el fin de identificar las distintas vertientes o líneas existentes, de establecer sus orígenes, enfoques, vínculos y alcances, permitiendo con ello caracterizar el fenómeno en sí desde una visión original e integradora. Estas corrientes a tratar han surgido en diversos momentos y con diversas particularidades, pero con mayor intensidad, articulación y visibilidad a partir de los años ochenta y especialmente en los noventa del siglo recién pasado, fundamentalmente en Europa y en los Estados Unidos de América, representando el “Cuerpo teórico” de esta tesis. Emergen en un escenario de creciente empoderamiento ciudadano, en tiempos de una mayor conciencia ambiental y social, y desde la convicción extendida de las limitaciones de un desarrollismo que, en términos del territorio físico, se manifiesta en el crecimiento urbano por extensión, incremental y desarticulado; tienen distintos idearios de origen, algunos en aparente contradicción o manifiesta oposición entre sí; se articulan desde diversos énfasis y surgen a partir de distintas aproximaciones. Para poder comprender el fenómeno de manera integral, se identifican y observan las tendencias contemporáneas y las correspondientes corrientes principales del diseño urbano; se indaga en sus discursos críticos y se ordenan en función de tres enfoques, los cuales reúnen los fundamentos esenciales de las distintas miradas críticas al modelo disperso y difuso: el enfoque neotradicional, el enfoque de la movilidad, y el enfoque ecológicoiv. Reconociendo la importancia de las operaciones de renovación urbana en la “ciudad intramuros” y siendo partícipes de estas intervenciones, las diferentes corrientes observadas desde los tres enfoques planteados, tienen un común denominador disciplinar en cuanto a su preocupación por generar actuaciones urbanas viables y practicables que causen un menor impacto sobre el territorio y que ofrezcan las condiciones para mejorar la habitabilidad en la ciudad, asumiendo el crecimiento hacia las periferias desde una aproximación alternativa a los modelos hoy predominantes. Las distintas corrientes, desde los particulares enfoques señalados, pretenden en síntesis, un desarrollo que refuerce el rol del diseño urbano, que promueva modelos más compactosv, de usos mixtos compatibles con la residencia y con espacios públicos de calidad, a una escala apropiada para la movilidad peatonal, favoreciendo de esta manera el uso del transporte público y velando consecuentemente por aquellos aspectos que mejoren las condiciones de sostenibilidad. En definitiva, el ideario de las corrientes caracterizadas en esta tesis como alternativas, se origina y se sostiene a partir de la convicción de situar a la disciplina del diseño urbano en su justa medida en el desarrollo contemporáneo, en el convencimiento de la relevancia del proyecto urbano en el ordenamiento del territorio y el crecimiento de las ciudades actuales. Una convergencia implícita a tratarse en la “Discusión de resultados”. La preocupación que reflejan las distintas corrientes estudiadas por el hábitat construido, en cuanto a su condición de acoger y estimular la dimensión humana de las ciudades, puede resumirse en una cita del arquitecto danés Jan Gehl, que interpreta a muchas de las líneas de pensamiento que se abordan en esta tesis, en cuanto al deseo de crear mejores ciudades: “Aspiramos generar ciudades animadas, saludables, atractivas, sostenibles y seguras, con el propósito de mejorar la calidad de vida de la gente”. ABSTRACT This Ph.D thesis identifies the recent phenomenon of the emergence of alternative urban design currents in the city edge, that focus on a more compact, human-scale oriented, comprehensive and sustainable urban design as an alternative to the overwhelming advance of sprawl that largely characterizes the contemporary city. It singles out the differences in origin, as well as the similarities drawn from the different lines of thought that define these emergent alternative currents, placing them within certain approaches proposed in this thesis, and thereby demonstrating the progressive areas of convergence that allow to arrange them as a common historical phenomenon. Indeed, the different lines of thought that drift towards these alternative urbanistic currents, first appear as a reaction to the post- World War II Modernist housing projects, and increasingly more so as a response to urban sprawl; an ever expanding phenomemnon expressed in different contexts within the economic and cultural globalization, largely singled out as being responsible for the deep urban transformations, the consequent gradual loss of livability and the impact on natural environment, setting the “Conceptual framework” of this thesis. Within the context of urban sprawl, the fundamental principles of these alternative currents are studied to establish their origins, approaches, linkages and scope, in order to zero in on the various aspects or existing lines and thereby allowing the identification of the phenomenon from an original and inclusive vision. The alternative currents to be dealt with, emerged at different times and with diverse characteristics, nonetheless it is in the eighties and especially during the nineties, mainly in Europe and the United States, where they appear with greater intensity, coordination and visibility, representing the “Theoretical body” of this thesis. The above mentioned currents arise in a scenario of increasing citizen empowerment in times of growing environmental and social awareness, along with the widespread conviction of the limitations of a quantitative development expressed as a physical manifestation in urban sprawl. These alternative currents have a different philosophy in origin, some are in apparent contradiction or in definite opposition, being organized from different approaches and emphases. To comprehend this phenomenon, it is necessary to identify and analize the contemporary trends and the main currents of urban design, inquiring and arranging their critical discourses according to three approaches that meet the essential foundations of the various critical perspectives of urban sprawl: the neo-traditional approach, the mobility approach, the ecological approach. Acknowledging the importance of urban renovation in the “Inner City”, and being partakers of these interventions, the different currents identified from these three approaches, concur in their concern for the development of viable and workable alternatives to urban sprawl; models that cause a lower impact on the territory, whilst improving livability in the city. The different currents recognized within the above mentioned approaches, advocate in brief, for a development that strengthens the role of urban design, that encourages more compact models, mixed-uses, and quality public spaces, considering the human scale and walkability; thereby increasing public transport and promoting consequently, the conditions for sustainable development. Ultimately, the philosophy of the so called alternative currents, is based on the belief of placing urban design as a fundamental discipline in contemporary urban development. The concern for the built habitat reflected by the various currents studied, as of their condition to accept and stimulate the human dimension of the city, can be summed up in a quote from Danish architect Jan Gehl, who represents many of the lines of thought addressed, in the belief of creating better cities: “We aspire to create cities that are lively, healthy, attractive, sustainable and safe-and thereby improve people’s quality of life”.

A method to incorporate the effect of taxonomic uncertainty on multivariate analyses of ecological data

Researchers in ecology commonly use multivariate analyses (e.g. redundancy analysis, canonical correspondence analysis, Mantel correlation, multivariate analysis of variance) to interpret patterns in biological data and relate these patterns to environmental predictors. There has been, however, little recognition of the errors associated with biological data and the influence that these may have on predictions derived from ecological hypotheses. We present a permutational method that assesses the effects of taxonomic uncertainty on the multivariate analyses typically used in the analysis of ecological data. The procedure is based on iterative randomizations that randomly re-assign non identified species in each site to any of the other species found in the remaining sites. After each re-assignment of species identities, the multivariate method at stake is run and a parameter of interest is calculated. Consequently, one can estimate a range of plausible values for the parameter of interest under different scenarios of re-assigned species identities. We demonstrate the use of our approach in the calculation of two parameters with an example involving tropical tree species from western Amazonia: 1) the Mantel correlation between compositional similarity and environmental distances between pairs of sites, and; 2) the variance explained by environmental predictors in redundancy analysis (RDA). We also investigated the effects of increasing taxonomic uncertainty (i.e. number of unidentified species), and the taxonomic resolution at which morphospecies are determined (genus-resolution, family-resolution, or fully undetermined species) on the uncertainty range of these parameters. To achieve this, we performed simulations on a tree dataset from southern Mexico by randomly selecting a portion of the species contained in the dataset and classifying them as unidentified at each level of decreasing taxonomic resolution. An analysis of covariance showed that both taxonomic uncertainty and resolution significantly influence the uncertainty range of the resulting parameters. Increasing taxonomic uncertainty expands our uncertainty of the parameters estimated both in the Mantel test and RDA. The effects of increasing taxonomic resolution, however, are not as evident. The method presented in this study improves the traditional approaches to study compositional change in ecological communities by accounting for some of the uncertainty inherent to biological data. We hope that this approach can be routinely used to estimate any parameter of interest obtained from compositional data tables when faced with taxonomic uncertainty.

Using ecological niche models to support tree species selection for forest restoration planning in largely deforested regions

Species selection for forest restoration is often supported by expert knowledge on local distribution patterns of native tree species. This approach is not applicable to largely deforested regions unless enough data on pre-human tree species distribution is available. In such regions, ecological niche models may provide essential information to support species selection in the framework of forest restoration planning. In this study we used ecological niche models to predict habitat suitability for native tree species in "Tierra de Campos" region, an almost totally deforested area of the Duero Basin (Spain). Previously available models provide habitat suitability predictions for dominant native tree species, but including non-dominant tree species in the forest restoration planning may be desirable to promote biodiversity, specially in largely deforested areas were near seed sources are not expected. We used the Forest Map of Spain as species occurrence data source to maximize the number of modeled tree species. Penalized logistic regression was used to train models using climate and lithological predictors. Using model predictions a set of tools were developed to support species selection in forest restoration planning. Model predictions were used to build ordered lists of suitable species for each cell of the study area. The suitable species lists were summarized drawing maps that showed the two most suitable species for each cell. Additionally, potential distribution maps of the suitable species for the study area were drawn. For a scenario with two dominant species, the models predicted a mixed forest (Quercus ilex and a coniferous tree species) for almost one half of the study area. According to the models, 22 non-dominant native tree species are suitable for the study area, with up to six suitable species per cell. The model predictions pointed to Crataegus monogyna, Juniperus communis, J.oxycedrus and J.phoenicea as the most suitable non-dominant native tree species in the study area. Our results encourage further use of ecological niche models for forest restoration planning in largely deforested regions.

Approach to the use of indicators for the assessment of the environmental level of construction products

The European construction industry is supposed to consume the 40% of the natural European resources and to generate the 40% of the European solid waste. Conscious of the great damage being suffered by the environment because of construction activity, this work tries to provide the building actors with a new tool to improve the current situation. The tool proposed is a model for the comprehensive evaluation of construction products by determining their environmental level. In this research, the environmental level of a construction product has been defined as its quality of accomplishing the construction requirements needed by causing the minimum ecological impact in its surrounding environment. This information allows building actors to choose suitable materials for building needs and also for the environment, mainly in the project stage or on the building site, contributing to improve the relationship between buildings and environment. For the assessment of the environmental level of construction products, five indicators have been identified regarding their global environmental impact through the product life cycle: CO2 emissions provoked during their production, volume and toxicity of waste generated on the building site, durability and recycling capacity after their useful life. Therefore, the less environmental impact one construction product produces, the higher environmental level performs. The model has been tested in 30 construction products that include environmental criteria in their description. The results obtained will be discussed in this article. Furthermore, this model can lay down guidelines for the selection of ecoefficient construction products and the design of new eco-competitive and eco-committed ones

River Restoration in Spain: Theoretical and Practical Approach in the Context of the European Water Framework Directive.

River restoration is becoming a priority in many countries because of increasing the awareness of environmental degradation. In Europe, the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) has significantly reinforced river restoration, encouraging the improvement of ecological status for water bodies. To fulfill the WFD requirements, the Spanish Ministry of the Environment developed in 2006 a National Strategy for River Restoration whose design and implementation are described in this paper. At the same time many restoration projects have been conducted, and sixty of them have been evaluated in terms of stated objectives and pressures and implemented restoration measures. Riparian vegetation enhancement, weir removal and fish passes were the most frequently implemented restoration measures, although the greatest pressures came from hydrologic alteration caused by flow regulation for irrigation purposes. Water deficits in quantity and quality associated with uncontrolled water demands seriously affect Mediterranean rivers and represent the main constraint to achieving good ecological status of Spanish rivers, most of them intensively regulated. Proper environmental allocation of in-stream flows would need deep restrictions in agricultural water use which seem to be of very difficult social acceptance. This situation highlights the need to integrate land-use and rural development policies with water resources and river management, and identifies additional difficulties in achieving the WFD objectives and good ecological status of rivers in Mediterranean countries.

Integrated assessment of policy interventions for promoting sustainable irrigation in semi-arid environments: A hydro-economic modeling approach

Sustaining irrigated agriculture to meet food production needs while maintaining aquatic ecosystems is at the heart of many policy debates in various parts of the world, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. Researchers and practitioners are increasingly calling for integrated approaches, and policy-makers are progressively supporting the inclusion of ecological and social aspects in water management programs. This paper contributes to this policy debate by providing an integrated economic-hydrologic modeling framework that captures the socio-economic and environmental effects of various policy initiatives and climate variability. This modeling integration includes a risk-based economic optimization model and a hydrologic water management simulation model that have been specified for the Middle Guadiana basin, a vulnerable drought-prone agro-ecological area with highly regulated river systems in southwest Spain. Namely, two key water policy interventions were investigated: the implementation of minimum environmental flows (supported by the European Water Framework Directive, EU WFD), and a reduction in the legal amount of water delivered for irrigation (planned measure included in the new Guadiana River Basin Management Plan, GRBMP, still under discussion). Results indicate that current patterns of excessive water use for irrigation in the basin may put environmental flow demands at risk, jeopardizing the WFD s goal of restoring the ?good ecological status? of water bodies by 2015. Conflicts between environmental and agricultural water uses will be stressed during prolonged dry episodes, and particularly in summer low-flow periods, when there is an important increase of crop irrigation water requirements. Securing minimum stream flows would entail a substantial reduction in irrigation water use for rice cultivation, which might affect the profitability and economic viability of small rice-growing farms located upstream in the river. The new GRBMP could contribute to balance competing water demands in the basin and to increase economic water productivity, but might not be sufficient to ensure the provision of environmental flows as required by the WFD. A thoroughly revision of the basin s water use concession system for irrigation seems to be needed in order to bring the GRBMP in line with the WFD objectives. Furthermore, the study illustrates that social, economic, institutional, and technological factors, in addition to bio-physical conditions, are important issues to be considered for designing and developing water management strategies. The research initiative presented in this paper demonstrates that hydro-economic models can explicitly integrate all these issues, constituting a valuable tool that could assist policy makers for implementing sustainable irrigation policies.