Impacts of projected maximum temperature extremes for C21 by an ensemble of regional climate models on cereal cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula

Crops growing in the Iberian Peninsula may be subjected to damagingly high temperatures during the sensitive development periods of flowering and grain filling. Such episodes are considered important hazards and farmers may take insurance to offset their impact. Increases in value and frequency of maximum temperature have been observed in the Iberian Peninsula during the 20th century, and studies on climate change indicate the possibility of further increase by the end of the 21st century. Here, impacts of current and future high temperatures on cereal cropping systems of the Iberian Peninsula are evaluated, focusing on vulnerable development periods of winter and summer crops. Climate change scenarios obtained from an ensemble of ten Regional Climate Models (multimodel ensemble) combined with crop simulation models were used for this purpose and related uncertainty was estimated. Results reveal that higher extremes of maximum temperature represent a threat to summer-grown but not to winter-grown crops in the Iberian Peninsula. The study highlights the different vulnerability of crops in the two growing seasons and the need to account for changes in extreme temperatures in developing adaptations in cereal cropping systems. Finally, this work contributes to clarifying the causes of high-uncertainty impact projections from previous studies.

Analysis of Hail and Temperature Series for Peninsular Spain

Hail is a serious concern for agriculture on the Iberian Peninsula. Hailstorms affect crop yield and/or quality to a degree that depends on the crop species and the phenological time. In Europe, Spain is one of the countries that experience relatively high agricultural losses related to hailstorms. It is of high interest to study models that can support calculations of the probabilities of economic losses due to hail damage and of the tendency over time for such losses. Some studies developed in France and the Netherdlands show that the summer mean temperature was highly correlated with a yearly hail severity index developed from hailrelated parameters obtained for insurance purposes. Meanwhile, other studies in the USA point out that a highly significant correlation between both is not possible to find due to high climatic variability. The aim of this work is to test the correlation between average minimum temperatures and hail damage intensity over the Spanish Iberian Peninsula. With this purpose, correlation analyses on both variables were performed for the 47 Spanish provinces (as individuals and single set) and for all crops and four individual crops: grapes, wheat, barley and winter grains. Suitable crop insurance data are available from 1981 until 2007 and based on this period, temperature data were obtained. This study does not confirm the results previously obtained for France and the Netherlands that relate observed hail damage to the average minimum temperature. The reason for this difference and the nature of the cases observed are discussed.

Ultra high temperature latent heat energy storage and thermophotovoltaic energy conversion

A conceptual energy storage system design that utilizes ultra high temperature phase change materials is presented. In this system, the energy is stored in the form of latent heat and converted to electricity upon demand by TPV (thermophotovoltaic) cells. Silicon is considered in this study as PCM (phase change material) due to its extremely high latent heat (1800 J/g or 500 Wh/kg), melting point (1410 C), thermal conductivity (~25 W/mK), low cost (less than $2/kg or $4/kWh) and abundance on earth. The proposed system enables an enormous thermal energy storage density of ~1 MWh/m3, which is 10e20 times higher than that of lead-acid batteries, 2e6 times than that of Li-ion batteries and 5e10 times than that of the current state of the art LHTES systems utilized in CSP (concentrated solar power) applications. The discharge efficiency of the system is ultimately determined by the TPV converter, which theoretically can exceed 50%. However, realistic discharge efficiencies utilizing single junction TPV cells are in the range of 20e45%, depending on the semiconductor bandgap and quality, and the photon recycling efficiency. This concept has the potential to achieve output electric energy densities in the range of 200-450 kWhe/m3, which is comparable to the best performing state of the art Lithium-ion batteries.