18 resultados para Dynamic changes

em Universidad Politécnica de Madrid


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Runtime variability is a key technique for the success of Dynamic Software Product Lines (DSPLs), as certain application demand reconfiguration of system features and execution plans at runtime. In this emerging research work we address the problem of dynamic changes in feature models in sensor networks product families, where nodes of the network demand dynamic reconfiguration at post-deployment time.

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This paper describes a model of persistence in (C)LP languages and two different and practically very useful ways to implement this model in current systems. The fundamental idea is that persistence is a characteristic of certain dynamic predicates (Le., those which encapsulate state). The main effect of declaring a predicate persistent is that the dynamic changes made to such predicates persist from one execution to the next one. After proposing a syntax for declaring persistent predicates, a simple, file-based implementation of the concept is presented and some examples shown. An additional implementation is presented which stores persistent predicates in an external datábase. The abstraction of the concept of persistence from its implementation allows developing applications which can store their persistent predicates alternatively in files or databases with only a few simple changes to a declaration stating the location and modality used for persistent storage. The paper presents the model, the implementation approach in both the cases of using files and relational databases, a number of optimizations of the process (using information obtained from static global analysis and goal clustering), and performance results from an implementation of these ideas.

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This paper describes a model of persistence in (C)LP languages and two different and practically very useful ways to implement this model in current systems. The fundamental idea is that persistence is a characteristic of certain dynamic predicates (i.e., those which encapsulate state). The main effect of declaring a predicate persistent is that the dynamic changes made to such predicates persist from one execution to the next one. After proposing a syntax for declaring persistent predicates, a simple, file-based implementation of the concept is presented and some examples shown. An additional implementation is presented which stores persistent predicates in an external database. The abstraction of the concept of persistence from its implementation allows developing applications which can store their persistent predicates alternatively in files or databases with only a few simple changes to a declaration stating the location and modality used for persistent storage. The paper presents the model, the implementation approach in both the cases of using files and relational databases, a number of optimizations of the process (using information obtained from static global analysis and goal clustering), and performance results from an implementation of these ideas.

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Durante las últimas décadas se observa una tendencia sostenida al crecimiento en las dimensiones de los grandes buques portacontenedores, que produce, que las infraestructuras portuarias y otras destinadas al tráfico de contenedores deban adaptarse para poder brindar los servicios correspondientes y mantenerse competitivas con otras para no perder el mercado. Esta situación implica importantes inversiones y modificaciones en los sistemas de transporte de contenedores por el gran volumen de carga que se debe mover en un corto periodo de tiempo, lo que genera la necesidad de tomar previsiones relacionadas con la probable evolución a futuro de las dimensiones que alcanzarán los grandes buques portacontenedores. En relación a los aspectos citados surge la inquietud de determinar los condicionantes futuros del crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores, con una visión totalizadora de todos los factores que incidirán en los próximos años, ya sea como un freno o un impulso a la tendencia que se verifica en el pasado y en el presente. En consideración a que el tema a tratar y resolver se encuentra en el futuro, con un horizonte de predicción de veinte años, se diseña y se aplica una metodología prospectiva, que permite alcanzar conclusiones con mayor grado de objetividad sobre probables escenarios futuros. La metodología prospectiva diseñada, conjuga distintas herramientas metodológicas, cualitativas, semi-cuantitativas y cuantitativas que se validan entre sí. Sobre la base del pasado y el presente, las herramientas cuantitativas permiten encontrar relaciones entre variables y hacer proyecciones, sin embargo, estas metodologías pierden validez más allá de los tres a cuatro años, por los vertiginosos y dinámicos cambios que se producen actualmente, en las áreas política, social y económica. Las metodologías semi-cuantitativas y cualitativas, empleadas en forma conjunta e integradas, permiten el análisis de circunstancias del pasado y del presente, obteniendo resultados cuantitativos que se pueden proyectar hacia un futuro cercano, los que integrados en estudios cualitativos proporcionan resultados a largo plazo, facilitando considerar variables cualitativas como la creciente preocupación por la preservación del medio ambiente y la piratería. La presente tesis, tiene como objetivo principal “identificar los condicionantes futuros del crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores y determinar sus escenarios”. Para lo cual, la misma se estructura en fases consecutivas y que se retroalimentan continuamente. Las tres primeras fases son un enfoque sobre el pasado y el presente, que establece el problema a resolver. Se estudian los antecedentes y el estado del conocimiento en relación a los factores y circunstancias que motivaron y facilitaron la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques. También se estudia el estado del conocimiento de las metodologías para predecir el futuro y se diseña de una metodología prospectiva. La cuarta fase, denominada Resultados, se desarrolla en distintas etapas, fundamentadas en las fases anteriores, con el fin de resolver el problema dando respuestas a las preguntas que se formularon para alcanzar el objetivo fijado. En el proceso de esta fase, con el objeto de predecir probables futuros, se aplica la metodología prospectiva diseñada, que contempla el análisis del pasado y el presente, que determina los factores cuya influencia provocó el crecimiento en dimensiones de los grandes buques hasta la actualidad, y que constituye la base para emplear los métodos prospectivos que permiten determinar qué factores condicionarán en el futuro la evolución de los grandes buques. El probable escenario futuro formado por los factores determinados por el criterio experto, es validado mediante un modelo cuantitativo dinámico, que además de obtener el probable escenario futuro basado en las tendencias de comportamiento hasta el presente de los factores determinantes considerados, permite estudiar distintos probables escenarios futuros en función de considerar un cambio en la tendencia futura de los factores determinantes. El análisis del pasado indica que la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores hasta el presente, se ha motivado por un crecimiento económico mundial que se tradujo en un aumento del comercio internacional, particularmente entre los países de Asia, con Europa y Estados Unidos. Esta tendencia se ha visto favorecida por el factor globalización y la acelerada evolución tecnológica que ha permitido superar los obstáculos que se presentaron. Es de destacar que aún en periodos de crisis económicas, con pronósticos de contracciones en el comercio, en los últimos años continuó la tendencia al crecimiento en dimensiones, en busca de una economía de escala para el transporte marítimo de contenedores, en las rutas transoceánicas. La investigación de la evolución de los grandes buques portacontenedores en el futuro, se efectúa mediante el empleo de una metodología prospectiva en la que el criterio experto se valida con un método cuantitativo dinámico, y además se fundamenta en una solida base pre-prospectiva. La metodología diseñada permite evaluar con un alto grado de objetividad cuales serán los condicionantes que incidirán en el crecimiento en tamaño de los grandes buques portacontenedores en el escenario con mayor probabilidad de acontecer en los próximos veinte años (2032), y también en otros escenarios que podrían presentarse en el caso de que los factores modifiquen su tendencia o bien se produzcan hechos aleatorios. El resultado se sintetiza en que la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores en los próximos 20 años se verá condicionada por factores en relación a los conceptos de oferta (los que facilitan u obstaculizan la tendencia), demanda (los que motivan o impulsan la tendencia) y factores externos (los que desestabilizan el equilibrio entre oferta y demanda). La tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores se verá obstaculizada / limitada principalmente por factores relacionados a las infraestructuras, resultando los pasos y/o canales vinculados a las rutas marítimas, los limitantes futuros al crecimiento en dimensiones de los grandes buques portacontenedores; y la interacción buque / infraestructura (grúas) un factor que tenderá a obstaculizar esta tendencia de los grandes portacontenedores. El desarrollo económico mundial que estimula el comercio internacional y los factores precio del petróleo y condicionantes medioambientales impulsarán la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores. Recent years have seen a sustained tendency towards the growth in the dimensions of large container ships. This has meant that port and other infrastructure used for container traffic has had to be adapted in order to provide the required services and to maintain a competitive position, so as not to lose market share. This situation implies the need for major investments in modifications to the container transport system, on account of the large volume of traffic to be handled in a short period of time. This in turn has generated a need to make provision for the probable future evolution of the ultimate dimensions that will be reached by large container ships. Such considerations give rise to the question of what are the future determinants for the growth of large container ships, requiring an overall vision of all the factors that will apply in future years, whether as a brake on or an incentive to the growth tendency which has been seen in the past and present In view of the fact that the theme to be dealt with and resolved relates to the future, with a forecasting horizon of some 20 years, a foresight methodology has been designed and applied so as to enable conclusions about probable future scenarios to be reached with a greater degree of objectivity. The designed methodology contains different methodological tools, both qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative, which are internally consistent. On the basis of past and present observations, the quantitative elements enable relationships to be established and forecasts to be made. Nevertheless such an approach loses validity more than three or four years into the future, on account of the very rapid and dynamic changes which may be seen at present in political, social and economic spheres. The semi-quantitative and qualitative methodologies are used coherently together and allow the analysis of past and present conditions, thus obtaining quantitative results which for short-term projections, which when integrated with the qualitative studies provide results for the long-term, facilitating the consideration of qualitative variables such as the increasing importance of environmental protection and the impact of piracy. The principal objective of the present thesis is "to identify the future conditions affecting the growth of large container ships and to determine possible scenarios". The thesis is structured in consecutive and related phases. The first three phases focus on the past and present in order to determine the problem to be resolved. The background is studied in order to establish the state of knowledge about the factors and circumstances which have motivated and facilitated the growth tendency for large container ships and the methodologies that have been used. In this way a specific foresight methodology is designed. The fourth phase, Results, is developed in distinct stages based on the previous phases, so as to resolve the problem posed and responding to the questions that arise. In this way the determined objective is reached. The fourth phase sees the application of the methodology that has been designed in order to predict posible futures. This includes analysis of the past and present factors which have caused the growth in the dimensions of large container ships up to the present. These provide the basis on which to apply the foresight methods which enable the future factors which will condition the development of such large container ships. The probable future scenarios are made up of the factors identified by expert judgement (using the Delphi technique) and validated by means of a dynamic quantitative model. This model both identifies the probable future scenarios based on past and present factors and enables the different future scenarios to be analysed as a function of future changes in the conditioning factors. Analysis of the past shows that the growth tendency up to the present for large container ships has been motivated by the growth of the world economy and the consequent increased international trade, especially between the countries of Asia with Europe and the United States. This tendency has been favoured by the trend towards globalization and by the rapid technical evolution in ship design, which has allowed the obstacles encountered to be overcome. It should be noted that even in periods of economic crisis, with an expectation for reduced trade, as experienced in recent years, the tendency towards increased ship dimensions has continued in search of economies of scale for the maritime transport of containers on transoceanic routes. The present investigation of the future evolution of large container ships has been done using a foresight methodology in which the expert judgement is validated by a dynamic quantitative methodology, founded on a firm pre-foresight analysis. The methodology that has been designed permits the evaluation, with a high degree of objectivity, of the future factors that will affect the growth of large container ships for the most probable scenario expected in the next 20 years (up to 2032). The evaluation applies also to other scenarios which may arise, in the event that their component factors are modified or indeed in the light of random events. In summary, the conclusión is that the tendency for growth in large container ships in the future 20 years will be determined by: factors related to supply, which slow or halt the tendency; factors related to demand, which encourage the tendency and finally, external factors which interrupt the equilibrium between supply and demand. The tendency for increasing growth in large container ships will be limited or even halted by factors related to infrastructure, including the natural and man-made straits and canals used by maritime transport. In addition the infrastructure required to serve such vessels both in port (including cranes and other equipment) and related transport, will tend to slow the growth tendency. The factors which will continue to encourage the tendency towards the growth of large container ships include world economic development, which stimulates international trade, and an increasing emphasis on environmental aspects.

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Este proyecto tiene como objetivo ampliar, mediante la caracterización espectral y multitemporal por técnicas de teledetección y medidas in situ, el estudio del corredor fluvial para el río Tinguiririca en Chile. Consiste en estudiar la cobertura del terreno, evaluar su dinámica de cambio e identificar zonas de acumulación de materiales de alteración hidrotermal arcillosos y óxidos de hierro, presentes en la cuenca durante las últimas tres décadas que puedan explicar su evolución temporal. Se pretenden obtener nuevas variables geoespaciales que ayuden a comprender las posibles causas de variación del cauce, elaborando cartografía para una posterior fase de investigación mediante modelización hidráulica que vaya dirigida a paliar el impacto de las riadas periódicas. Para ello, se han empleado, tratado y explotado imágenes de los sensores remotos TM, ETM+, OLI y TIRS tomadas en un período comprendido entre 1993 y 2014, que se han contrastado con perfiles batimétricos, datos GPS, supervisión y muestreo tomados sobre el terreno. Se ha realizado así mismo, un estudio prospectivo de caso sobre cómo afectarían las variables obtenidas por teledetección a la modelización hidráulica, en particular, la rugosidad, proponiendo un marco metodológico global de integración de las tres técnicas: sistemas de información geográfica, teledetección y modelización hidráulica. ABSTRACT This project aims to develop the study of Tinguiririca River corridor in Chile, through spectral characterization and multitemporal remote sensing and other measurements. This involves studying the land cover, its dynamic changes and identifies clayey materials and iron oxides accumulations of hydrothermal alteration, present in the basin during the last three decades to explain their evolution. It aims to obtain new geospatial variables in order to understand the possible causes of channel variation, developing mapping to a later research stage using hydraulic modeling so as to mitigate the impact of periodic floods. In this way, it has used processed and exploited images of TM, ETM +, OLI and TIRS remote sensing, taken in a period between 1993 and 2014 which it has been compared with bathymetric profiles, GPS, monitoring and sampling data collected in the field . It has done a prospective study about the variables obtained condition on hydraulic modeling, roughness in particular, proposing IX a complete methodological framework about the integration of the three techniques: geographic information systems, remote sensing and modeling hydraulics

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En esta tesis se propone un nuevo modelo de carga para caracterizar los saltos de personas sobre estructuras y se estudia la influencia de las personas en las propiedades dinámicas de la estructura. En el estudio del comportamiento estructural de construcciones como gimnasios, salas de baile, estadios, auditorios o pasarelas peatonales sometidas a cargas producidas por un gran número de personas, se deben tener en cuenta las fuerzas dinámicas, lo cual implica el uso de modelos de cálculo más complejos y criterios de dimensionamiento con nuevos parámetros. Por ello, es necesario determinar a qué cargas van a estar sometidas este tipo de estructuras y cómo van a cambiar cuando se encuentren ocupadas por personas. En la primera parte del trabajo se presenta el problema de considerar las fuerzas dinámicas en el análisis de estructuras. Se indican los factores que influyeron en el interés por este tipo de estudios. Se exponen los objetivos de la tesis y se propone la metodología para conseguirlos. También en esta primera parte se describe el estado del arte. Se explican los modelos existentes de carga generada por saltos de personas y se hace un repaso de los principales autores y estudios sobre este tema. Por último se exponen algunas ideas sobre las modificaciones dinámicas que provoca la presencia de las personas en las estructuras. En la segunda parte de la tesis se explica el modelo de carga de saltos propuesta en este trabajo, donde se incluye una campaña de ensayos con saltos sobre una placa de carga. Se describen las estructuras de ensayo, un gimnasio y una losa que cubre un aljibe. Se detalla la identificación de las propiedades dinámicas de las estructuras, describiendo los ensayos correspondientes y los resultados de un Análisis Operacional Modal. Por último se presenta el modelo de elementos finitos de la estructura elegida para los ensayos. En la tercera y última parte del trabajo se comprueba la validez de los modelos de carga estudiados mediante la realización de ensayos dinámicos con personas saltando y la posterior comparación de los resultados experimentales con las simulaciones numéricas. Como último resultado se estudia la influencia de las personas en las propiedades dinámicas de la estructura. Para ello se utilizan los datos obtenidos mediante un ensayo con personas pasivas. ABSTRACT In this thesis, a new load model is proposed to characterize people jumping on structures and the influence of people in the dynamic properties of the structure is studied. In the study of the structural behavior of buildings such as gymnasiums, dance halls, stadiums, auditoriums or footbridges subjected to loads generated by crowd, dynamic forces must take into account, which involves the use of more complex calculation models and dimensioning criteria with new parameters. Therefore, it is necessary to determine these dynamic loads and how structures will change when they are occupied by people. In the first part of the work the problem of considering the dynamic forces in the analysis of structures is presented. The factors that influence on the interest in this type of study are indicated. The objectives of the thesis are presented and also the proposed methodology in order to achieve them. In this first part the state of the art is described. Existing jumping load models are explained and a review of the main authors and studies on this subject is done. Finally some ideas about the dynamic changes caused by the presence of people in the structures are exposed. In the second part of the thesis the proposed jumping load model is explained, including jump tests on a force plate. Test structures, a gym and a concrete slab are described. Dynamic properties identification of the test structures is detailed with the corresponding tests and Operational Modal Analysis results. Finally, a finite element model of the structure chosen for the tests is presented. In the third part of the work, the studied jump load models are validated by performing dynamic testing with people jumping and the subsequent comparison of experimental results with numerical simulations. As a last result, the influence of people on the dynamic properties of the structure is checked. For this purpose, obtained data from a test with passive people are used.

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The soil-structure interaction at bridge abutments may introduce important changes in the dynamic properties of short to medium span bridges. The paper presents the results obtained, through the use of the Boundary Element Method (B.E.M.) technique in several typical situations, including semiinfinite and layered media. Both stiffness and damping properties are included.

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Future high-quality consumer electronics will contain a number of applications running in a highly dynamic environment, and their execution will need to be efficiently arbitrated by the underlying platform software. The multimedia applications that currently execute in such similar contexts face frequent run-time variations in their resource demands, originated by the greedy nature of the multimedia processing itself. Changes in resource demands are triggered by numerous reasons (e.g. a switch in the input media compression format). Such situations require real-time adaptation mechanisms to adjust the system operation to the new requirements, and this must be done seamlessly to satisfy the user experience. One solution for efficiently managing application execution is to apply quality of service resource management techniques, based on assigning and enforcing resource contracts to applications. Most resource management solutions provide temporal isolation by enforcing resource assignments and avoiding any resource overruns. However, this has a clear limitation over the cost-effective resource usage. This paper presents a simple priority assignment scheme based on uniform priority bands to allow that greedy multimedia tasks incur in safe overruns that increase resource usage and do not threaten the timely execution of non-overrunning tasks. Experimental results show that the proposed priority assignment scheme in combination with a resource accounting mechanism preserves timely multimedia execution and delivery, achieves a higher cost-effective processor usage, and guarantees the execution isolation of non-overrunning tasks.

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In ubiquitous data stream mining applications, different devices often aim to learn concepts that are similar to some extent. In these applications, such as spam filtering or news recommendation, the data stream underlying concept (e.g., interesting mail/news) is likely to change over time. Therefore, the resultant model must be continuously adapted to such changes. This paper presents a novel Collaborative Data Stream Mining (Coll-Stream) approach that explores the similarities in the knowledge available from other devices to improve local classification accuracy. Coll-Stream integrates the community knowledge using an ensemble method where the classifiers are selected and weighted based on their local accuracy for different partitions of the feature space. We evaluate Coll-Stream classification accuracy in situations with concept drift, noise, partition granularity and concept similarity in relation to the local underlying concept. The experimental results show that Coll-Stream resultant model achieves stability and accuracy in a variety of situations using both synthetic and real world datasets.

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Most data stream classification techniques assume that the underlying feature space is static. However, in real-world applications the set of features and their relevance to the target concept may change over time. In addition, when the underlying concepts reappear, reusing previously learnt models can enhance the learning process in terms of accuracy and processing time at the expense of manageable memory consumption. In this paper, we propose mining recurring concepts in a dynamic feature space (MReC-DFS), a data stream classification system to address the challenges of learning recurring concepts in a dynamic feature space while simultaneously reducing the memory cost associated with storing past models. MReC-DFS is able to detect and adapt to concept changes using the performance of the learning process and contextual information. To handle recurring concepts, stored models are combined in a dynamically weighted ensemble. Incremental feature selection is performed to reduce the combined feature space. This contribution allows MReC-DFS to store only the features most relevant to the learnt concepts, which in turn increases the memory efficiency of the technique. In addition, an incremental feature selection method is proposed that dynamically determines the threshold between relevant and irrelevant features. Experimental results demonstrating the high accuracy of MReC-DFS compared with state-of-the-art techniques on a variety of real datasets are presented. The results also show the superior memory efficiency of MReC-DFS.

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A notorious advantage of wireless transmission is a significant reduction and simplification in wiring and harness. There are a lot of applications of wireless systems, but in many occasions sensor nodes require a specific housing to protect the electronics from hush environmental conditions. Nowadays the information is scarce and nonspecific on the dynamic behaviour of WSN and RFID. Therefore the purpose of this study is to evaluate the dynamic behaviour of the sensors. A series of trials were designed and performed covering temperature steps between cold room (5 °C), room temperature (23 °C) and heated environment (35 °C). As sensor nodes: three Crossbow motes, a surface mounted Nlaza module (with sensor Sensirion located on the motherboard), an aerial mounted Nlaza where the Sensirion sensor stayed at the end of a cable), and four tags RFID Turbo Tag (T700 model with and without housing), and 702-B (with and without housing). To assess the dynamic behaviour a first order response approach is used and fitted with dedicated optimization tools programmed in Matlab that allow extracting the time response (?) and corresponding determination coefficient (r2) with regard to experimental data. The shorter response time (20.9 s) is found for the uncoated T 700 tag which encapsulated version provides a significantly higher response (107.2 s). The highest ? corresponds to the Crossbow modules (144.4 s), followed by the surface mounted Nlaza module (288.1 s), while the module with aerial mounted sensor gives a response certainly close above to the T700 without coating (42.8 s). As a conclusion, the dynamic response of temperature sensors within wireless and RFID nodes is dramatically influenced by the way they are housed (to protect them from the environment) as well as by the heat released by the node electronics itself; its characterization is basic to allow monitoring of high rate temperature changes and to certify the cold chain. Besides the time to rise and to recover is significantly different being mostly higher for the latter than for the former.

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Observation has widely shown for nearly all last century that the Spanish (Dynamic) Maritime Climate was following around 10 to 11 year cycles in its most significant figure, wind wave, despite it being better to register cycles of 20 to 22 years, in analogical way with the semi-diurnal and diurnal cycles of Cantabrian tides. Those cycles were soon linked to sun activity and, at the end of the century, the latter was related to the Solar System evolution. We know now that waves and storm surges are coupled and that (Dynamic) Maritime Climate forms part of a more complex “Thermal Machine” including Hydrological cycle. The analysis of coastal floods could so facilitate the extension of that experience. According to their immediate cause, simple flood are usually sorted out into flash, pluvial, fluvial, groundwater and coastal types, considering the last as caused by sea waters. But the fact is that most of coastal floods are the result of the concomitance of several former simple types. Actually, the several Southeastern Mediterranean coastal flood events show to be the result of the superposition within the coastal zone of flash, fluvial, pluvial and groundwater flood types under boundary condition imposed by the concomitant storm sea level rise. This work shall be regarded as an attempt to clarify that cyclic experience, through an in-depth review of a past flood events in Valencia (Turia and Júcar basins), as in Murcia (Segura’s) as well.

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The problem of interdependence between housing and commuting in a city has been analysed within the framework of welfare economics. Uncertain changes overtime in the working population has been considered by means of a dynamic, probabilistic model. The characteristics of irreversibility and durability in city building have been explicitly dealt with. The ultimate objective is that the model after further development will be an auxiliary tool in city planning.

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Many image processing methods, such as techniques for people re-identification, assume photometric constancy between different images. This study addresses the correction of photometric variations based upon changes in background areas to correct foreground areas. The authors assume a multiple light source model where all light sources can have different colours and will change over time. In training mode, the authors learn per-location relations between foreground and background colour intensities. In correction mode, the authors apply a double linear correction model based on learned relations. This double linear correction includes a dynamic local illumination correction mapping as well as an inter-camera mapping. The authors evaluate their illumination correction by computing the similarity between two images based on the earth mover's distance. The authors compare the results to a representative auto-exposure algorithm found in the recent literature plus a colour correction one based on the inverse-intensity chromaticity. Especially in complex scenarios the authors’ method outperforms these state-of-the-art algorithms.

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Tolls have increasingly become a common mechanism to fund road projects in recent decades. Therefore, improving knowledge of demand behavior constitutes a key aspect for stakeholders dealing with the management of toll roads. However, the literature concerning demand elasticity estimates for interurban toll roads is still limited due to their relatively scarce number in the international context. Furthermore, existing research has left some aspects to be investigated, among others, the choice of GDP as the most common socioeconomic variable to explain traffic growth over time. This paper intends to determine the variables that better explain the evolution of light vehicle demand in toll roads throughout the years. To that end, we establish a dynamic panel data methodology aimed at identifying the key socioeconomic variables explaining changes in light vehicle demand over time. The results show that, despite some usefulness, GDP does not constitute the most appropriate explanatory variable, while other parameters such as employment or GDP per capita lead to more stable and consistent results. The methodology is applied to Spanish toll roads for the 1990?2011 period, which constitutes a very interesting case on variations in toll road use, as road demand has experienced a significant decrease since the beginning of the economic crisis in 2008.