Arquitectura y modelo de referencia para un ecosistema de intercambio de datos personales centrado en el usuario

Los servicios telemáticos han transformando la mayoría de nuestras actividades cotidianas y ofrecen oportunidades sin precedentes con características como, por ejemplo, el acceso ubicuo, la disponibilidad permanente, la independencia del dispositivo utilizado, la multimodalidad o la gratuidad, entre otros. No obstante, los beneficios que destacan en cuanto se reflexiona sobre estos servicios, tienen como contrapartida una serie de riesgos y amenazas no tan obvios, ya que éstos se nutren de y tratan con datos personales, lo cual suscita dudas respecto a la privacidad de las personas. Actualmente, las personas que asumen el rol de usuarios de servicios telemáticos generan constantemente datos digitales en distintos proveedores. Estos datos reflejan parte de su intimidad, de sus características particulares, preferencias, intereses, relaciones sociales, hábitos de consumo, etc. y lo que es más controvertido, toda esta información se encuentra bajo la custodia de distintos proveedores que pueden utilizarla más allá de las necesidades y el control del usuario. Los datos personales y, en particular, el conocimiento sobre los usuarios que se puede extraer a partir de éstos (modelos de usuario) se han convertido en un nuevo activo económico para los proveedores de servicios. De este modo, estos recursos se pueden utilizar para ofrecer servicios centrados en el usuario basados, por ejemplo, en la recomendación de contenidos, la personalización de productos o la predicción de su comportamiento, lo cual permite a los proveedores conectar con los usuarios, mantenerlos, involucrarlos y en definitiva, fidelizarlos para garantizar el éxito de un modelo de negocio. Sin embargo, dichos recursos también pueden utilizarse para establecer otros modelos de negocio que van más allá de su procesamiento y aplicación individual por parte de un proveedor y que se basan en su comercialización y compartición con otras entidades. Bajo esta perspectiva, los usuarios sufren una falta de control sobre los datos que les refieren, ya que esto depende de la voluntad y las condiciones impuestas por los proveedores de servicios, lo cual implica que habitualmente deban enfrentarse ante la disyuntiva de ceder sus datos personales o no acceder a los servicios telemáticos ofrecidos. Desde el sector público se trata de tomar medidas que protejan a los usuarios con iniciativas y legislaciones que velen por su privacidad y que aumenten el control sobre sus datos personales, a la vez que debe favorecer el desarrollo económico propiciado por estos proveedores de servicios. En este contexto, esta tesis doctoral propone una arquitectura y modelo de referencia para un ecosistema de intercambio de datos personales centrado en el usuario que promueve la creación, compartición y utilización de datos personales y modelos de usuario entre distintos proveedores, al mismo tiempo que ofrece a los usuarios las herramientas necesarias para ejercer su control en cuanto a la cesión y uso de sus recursos personales y obtener, en su caso, distintos incentivos o contraprestaciones económicas. Las contribuciones originales de la tesis son la especificación y diseño de una arquitectura que se apoya en un proceso de modelado distribuido que se ha definido en el marco de esta investigación. Éste se basa en el aprovechamiento de recursos que distintas entidades (fuentes de datos) ofrecen para generar modelos de usuario enriquecidos que cubren las necesidades específicas de terceras entidades, considerando la participación del usuario y el control sobre sus recursos personales (datos y modelos de usuario). Lo anterior ha requerido identificar y caracterizar las fuentes de datos con potencial de abastecer al ecosistema, determinar distintos patrones para la generación de modelos de usuario a partir de datos personales distribuidos y heterogéneos y establecer una infraestructura para la gestión de identidad y privacidad que permita a los usuarios expresar sus preferencias e intereses respecto al uso y compartición de sus recursos personales. Además, se ha definido un modelo de negocio de referencia que sustenta las investigaciones realizadas y que ha sido particularizado en dos ámbitos de aplicación principales, en concreto, el sector de publicidad en redes sociales y el sector financiero para la implantación de nuevos servicios. Finalmente, cabe destacar que las contribuciones de esta tesis han sido validadas en el contexto de distintos proyectos de investigación industrial aplicada y también en el marco de proyectos fin de carrera que la autora ha tutelado o en los que ha colaborado. Los resultados obtenidos han originado distintos méritos de investigación como dos patentes en explotación, la publicación de un artículo en una revista con índice de impacto y diversos artículos en congresos internacionales de relevancia. Algunos de éstos han sido galardonados con premios de distintas instituciones, así como en las conferencias donde han sido presentados. ABSTRACT Information society services have changed most of our daily activities, offering unprecedented opportunities with certain characteristics, such as: ubiquitous access, permanent availability, device independence, multimodality and free-of-charge services, among others. However, all the positive aspects that emerge when thinking about these services have as counterpart not-so-obvious threats and risks, because they feed from and use personal data, thus creating concerns about peoples’ privacy. Nowadays, people that play the role of user of services are constantly generating digital data in different service providers. These data reflect part of their intimacy, particular characteristics, preferences, interests, relationships, consumer behavior, etc. Controversy arises because this personal information is stored and kept by the mentioned providers that can use it beyond the user needs and control. Personal data and, in particular, the knowledge about the user that can be obtained from them (user models) have turned into a new economic asset for the service providers. In this way, these data and models can be used to offer user centric services based, for example, in content recommendation, tailored-products or user behavior, all of which allows connecting with the users, keeping them more engaged and involved with the provider, finally reaching customer loyalty in order to guarantee the success of a business model. However, these resources can be used to establish a different kind of business model; one that does not only processes and individually applies personal data, but also shares and trades these data with other entities. From that perspective, the users lack control over their referred data, because it depends from the conditions imposed by the service providers. The consequence is that the users often face the following dilemma: either giving up their personal data or not using the offered services. The Public Sector takes actions in order to protect the users approving, for example, laws and legal initiatives that reinforce privacy and increase control over personal data, while at the same time the authorities are also key players in the economy development that derives from the information society services. In this context, this PhD Dissertation proposes an architecture and reference model to achieve a user-centric personal data ecosystem that promotes the creation, sharing and use of personal data and user models among different providers, while offering users the tools to control who can access which data and why and if applicable, to obtain different incentives. The original contributions obtained are the specification and design of an architecture that supports a distributed user modelling process defined by this research. This process is based on leveraging scattered resources of heterogeneous entities (data sources) to generate on-demand enriched user models that fulfill individual business needs of third entities, considering the involvement of users and the control over their personal resources (data and user models). This has required identifying and characterizing data sources with potential for supplying resources, defining different generation patterns to produce user models from scattered and heterogeneous data, and establishing identity and privacy management infrastructures that allow users to set their privacy preferences regarding the use and sharing of their resources. Moreover, it has also been proposed a reference business model that supports the aforementioned architecture and this has been studied for two application fields: social networks advertising and new financial services. Finally, it has to be emphasized that the contributions obtained in this dissertation have been validated in the context of several national research projects and master thesis that the author has directed or has collaborated with. Furthermore, these contributions have produced different scientific results such as two patents and different publications in relevant international conferences and one magazine. Some of them have been awarded with different prizes.

User benefit assessment by a dynamic LUTI model for Madrid

Assessing users’ benefit in a transport policy implementation has been studied by many researchers using theoretical or empirical measures. However, few of them measure users’ benefit in a different way from the consumer surplus. Therefore, this paper aims to assess a new measure of user benefits by weighting consumer surplus in order to include equity assessment for different transport policies simulated in a dynamic middle-term LUTI model adapted to the case study of Madrid. Three different transport policies, including road pricing, parking charge and public transport improvement have been simulated through the Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator, MARS, the LUTI calibrated model for Madrid). A social welfare function (WF) is defined using a cost benefit analysis function that includes mainly costs and benefits of users and operators of the transport system. Particularly, the part of welfare function concerning the users, (i.e. consumer surplus), is modified by a compensating weight (CW) which represents the inverse of household income level. Based on the modified social welfare function, the effects on the measure of users benefits are estimated and compared with the old WF ́s results as well. The result of the analysis shows that road pricing leads a negative effect on the users benefits specially on the low income users. Actually, the road pricing and parking charge implementation results like a regressive policy especially at long term. Public transport improvement scenario brings more positive effects on low income user benefits. The integrated (road pricing and increasing public services) policy scenario is the one which receive the most user benefits. The results of this research could be a key issue to understanding the relationship between transport systems policies and user benefits distribution in a metropolitan context.

E-Flow: A communication system for user notification in dynamic evacuation scenarios

Most of the current evacuation plans are based on static signaling, fixed monitoring infrastructure, and limited user notification and feedback mechanisms. These facts lead to lower situation awareness, in the case event of an emergency, such as blocked emergency exits, while delaying the reaction time of individuals. In this context, we introduce the E-Flow communication system, which improves the user awareness by integrating personal, mobile and fixed devices with the existing monitoring infrastructure. Our system broadens the notification and monitoring alternatives, in real time, among, safety staff, end-users and evacuation related devices, such as sensors and actuators.

Next Generation of Energy Residential Gateways for Demand Response and Dynamic Pricing

Predictions about electric energy needs, based on current electric energy models, forecast that the global energy consumption on Earth for 2050 will double present rates. Using distributed procedures for control and integration, the expected needs can be halved. Therefore implementation of Smart Grids is necessary. Interaction between final consumers and utilities is a key factor of future Smart Grids. This interaction is aimed to reach efficient and responsible energy consumption. Energy Residential Gateways (ERG) are new in-building devices that will govern the communication between user and utility and will control electric loads. Utilities will offer new services empowering residential customers to lower their electric bill. Some of these services are Smart Metering, Demand Response and Dynamic Pricing. This paper presents a practical development of an ERG for residential buildings.

Dynamic Effects On Culverts for High Speed Trains

Culverts are very common in recent railway lines. Wild life corridors and drainage conducts often fall in this category of partially buried structures. Their dynamic behavior has received far less attention than other structures such as bridges but its large number makes that study an interesting challenge from the point of view of safety and savings. In this paper a complete study of a culvert, including on-site measurements as well as numerical modelling, will be presented. The structure belongs to the high speed railway line linking Segovia and Valladolid, in Spain. The line was opened to traffic in 2004. Its dimensions (3x3m) are the most frequent along the line. Other factors such as reduced overburden (0.6m) and an almost right angle with the track axis make it an interesting example to extract generalized conclusions. On site measurements have been performed in the structure recording the dynamic response at selected points of the structure during the passage of high speed trains at speeds ranging between 200 and 300km/h. The measurements by themselves provide a good insight into the main features of the dynamic behaviour of the structure. A 3D finite element model of the structure, representing its key features was also studied as it allows further understanding of the dynamic response to the train loads . In the paper the discrepancies between predicted and measured vibration levels will be analyzed and some advices on numerical modelling will be proposed

An Intercomparison of Modelling Approaches for Simulating the Atmospheric Dispersion of Ammonia Emitted by Agricultural Sources

RESUMEN La dispersión del amoniaco (NH3) emitido por fuentes agrícolas en medias distancias, y su posterior deposición en el suelo y la vegetación, pueden llevar a la degradación de ecosistemas vulnerables y a la acidificación de los suelos. La deposición de NH3 suele ser mayor junto a la fuente emisora, por lo que los impactos negativos de dichas emisiones son generalmente mayores en esas zonas. Bajo la legislación comunitaria, varios estados miembros emplean modelos de dispersión inversa para estimar los impactos de las emisiones en las proximidades de las zonas naturales de especial conservación. Una revisión reciente de métodos para evaluar impactos de NH3 en distancias medias recomendaba la comparación de diferentes modelos para identificar diferencias importantes entre los métodos empleados por los distintos países de la UE. En base a esta recomendación, esta tesis doctoral compara y evalúa las predicciones de las concentraciones atmosféricas de NH3 de varios modelos bajo condiciones, tanto reales como hipotéticas, que plantean un potencial impacto sobre ecosistemas (incluidos aquellos bajo condiciones de clima Mediterráneo). En este sentido, se procedió además a la comparación y evaluación de varias técnicas de modelización inversa para inferir emisiones de NH3. Finalmente, se ha desarrollado un modelo matemático simple para calcular las concentraciones de NH3 y la velocidad de deposición de NH3 en ecosistemas vulnerables cercanos a una fuente emisora. La comparativa de modelos supuso la evaluación de cuatro modelos de dispersión (ADMS 4.1; AERMOD v07026; OPS-st v3.0.3 y LADD v2010) en un amplio rango de casos hipotéticos (dispersión de NH3 procedente de distintos tipos de fuentes agrícolas de emisión). La menor diferencia entre las concentraciones medias estimadas por los distintos modelos se obtuvo para escenarios simples. La convergencia entre las predicciones de los modelos fue mínima para el escenario relativo a la dispersión de NH3 procedente de un establo ventilado mecánicamente. En este caso, el modelo ADMS predijo concentraciones significativamente menores que los otros modelos. Una explicación de estas diferencias podríamos encontrarla en la interacción de diferentes “penachos” y “capas límite” durante el proceso de parametrización. Los cuatro modelos de dispersión fueron empleados para dos casos reales de dispersión de NH3: una granja de cerdos en Falster (Dinamarca) y otra en Carolina del Norte (EEUU). Las concentraciones medias anuales estimadas por los modelos fueron similares para el caso americano (emisión de granjas ventiladas de forma natural y balsa de purines). La comparación de las predicciones de los modelos con concentraciones medias anuales medidas in situ, así como la aplicación de los criterios establecidos para la aceptación estadística de los modelos, permitió concluir que los cuatro modelos se comportaron aceptablemente para este escenario. No ocurrió lo mismo en el caso danés (nave ventilada mecánicamente), en donde el modelo LADD no dio buenos resultados debido a la ausencia de procesos de “sobreelevacion de penacho” (plume-rise). Los modelos de dispersión dan a menudo pobres resultados en condiciones de baja velocidad de viento debido a que la teoría de dispersión en la que se basan no es aplicable en estas condiciones. En situaciones de frecuente descenso en la velocidad del viento, la actual guía de modelización propone usar un modelo que sea eficaz bajo dichas condiciones, máxime cuando se realice una valoración que tenga como objeto establecer una política de regularización. Esto puede no ser siempre posible debido a datos meteorológicos insuficientes, en cuyo caso la única opción sería utilizar un modelo más común, como la versión avanzada de los modelos Gausianos ADMS o AERMOD. Con el objetivo de evaluar la idoneidad de estos modelos para condiciones de bajas velocidades de viento, ambos modelos fueron utilizados en un caso con condiciones Mediterráneas. Lo que supone sucesivos periodos de baja velocidad del viento. El estudio se centró en la dispersión de NH3 procedente de una granja de cerdos en Segovia (España central). Para ello la concentración de NH3 media mensual fue medida en 21 localizaciones en torno a la granja. Se realizaron también medidas de concentración de alta resolución en una única localización durante una campaña de una semana. En este caso, se evaluaron dos estrategias para mejorar la respuesta del modelo ante bajas velocidades del viento. La primera se basó en “no zero wind” (NZW), que sustituyó periodos de calma con el mínimo límite de velocidad del viento y “accumulated calm emissions” (ACE), que forzaban al modelo a calcular las emisiones totales en un periodo de calma y la siguiente hora de no-calma. Debido a las importantes incertidumbres en los datos de entrada del modelo (inputs) (tasa de emisión de NH3, velocidad de salida de la fuente, parámetros de la capa límite, etc.), se utilizó el mismo caso para evaluar la incertidumbre en la predicción del modelo y valorar como dicha incertidumbre puede ser considerada en evaluaciones del modelo. Un modelo dinámico de emisión, modificado para el caso de clima Mediterráneo, fue empleado para estimar la variabilidad temporal en las emisiones de NH3. Así mismo, se realizó una comparativa utilizando las emisiones dinámicas y la tasa constante de emisión. La incertidumbre predicha asociada a la incertidumbre de los inputs fue de 67-98% del valor medio para el modelo ADMS y entre 53-83% del valor medio para AERMOD. La mayoría de esta incertidumbre se debió a la incertidumbre del ratio de emisión en la fuente (50%), seguida por la de las condiciones meteorológicas (10-20%) y aquella asociada a las velocidades de salida (5-10%). El modelo AERMOD predijo mayores concentraciones que ADMS y existieron más simulaciones que alcanzaron los criterios de aceptabilidad cuando se compararon las predicciones con las concentraciones medias anuales medidas. Sin embargo, las predicciones del modelo ADMS se correlacionaron espacialmente mejor con las mediciones. El uso de valores dinámicos de emisión estimados mejoró el comportamiento de ADMS, haciendo empeorar el de AERMOD. La aplicación de estrategias destinadas a mejorar el comportamiento de este último tuvo efectos contradictorios similares. Con el objeto de comparar distintas técnicas de modelización inversa, varios modelos (ADMS, LADD y WindTrax) fueron empleados para un caso no agrícola, una colonia de pingüinos en la Antártida. Este caso fue empleado para el estudio debido a que suponía la oportunidad de obtener el primer factor de emisión experimental para una colonia de pingüinos antárticos. Además las condiciones eran propicias desde el punto de vista de la casi total ausencia de concentraciones ambiente (background). Tras el trabajo de modelización existió una concordancia suficiente entre las estimaciones obtenidas por los tres modelos. De este modo se pudo definir un factor de emisión de para la colonia de 1.23 g NH3 por pareja criadora por día (con un rango de incertidumbre de 0.8-2.54 g NH3 por pareja criadora por día). Posteriores aplicaciones de técnicas de modelización inversa para casos agrícolas mostraron también un buen compromiso estadístico entre las emisiones estimadas por los distintos modelos. Con todo ello, es posible concluir que la modelización inversa es una técnica robusta para estimar tasas de emisión de NH3. Modelos de selección (screening) permiten obtener una rápida y aproximada estimación de los impactos medioambientales, siendo una herramienta útil para evaluaciones de impactos en tanto que permite eliminar casos que presentan un riesgo potencial de daño bajo. De esta forma, lo recursos del modelo pueden Resumen (Castellano) destinarse a casos en donde la posibilidad de daño es mayor. El modelo de Cálculo Simple de los Límites de Impacto de Amoniaco (SCAIL) se desarrolló para obtener una estimación de la concentración media de NH3 y de la tasa de deposición seca asociadas a una fuente agrícola. Está técnica de selección, basada en el modelo LADD, fue evaluada y calibrada con diferentes bases de datos y, finalmente, validada utilizando medidas independientes de concentraciones realizadas cerca de las fuentes. En general SCAIL dio buenos resultados de acuerdo a los criterios estadísticos establecidos. Este trabajo ha permitido definir situaciones en las que las concentraciones predichas por modelos de dispersión son similares, frente a otras en las que las predicciones difieren notablemente entre modelos. Algunos modelos nos están diseñados para simular determinados escenarios en tanto que no incluyen procesos relevantes o están más allá de los límites de su aplicabilidad. Un ejemplo es el modelo LADD que no es aplicable en fuentes con velocidad de salida significativa debido a que no incluye una parametrización de sobreelevacion del penacho. La evaluación de un esquema simple combinando la sobreelevacion del penacho y una turbulencia aumentada en la fuente mejoró el comportamiento del modelo. Sin embargo más pruebas son necesarias para avanzar en este sentido. Incluso modelos que son aplicables y que incluyen los procesos relevantes no siempre dan similares predicciones. Siendo las razones de esto aún desconocidas. Por ejemplo, AERMOD predice mayores concentraciones que ADMS para dispersión de NH3 procedente de naves de ganado ventiladas mecánicamente. Existe evidencia que sugiere que el modelo ADMS infraestima concentraciones en estas situaciones debido a un elevado límite de velocidad de viento. Por el contrario, existen evidencias de que AERMOD sobreestima concentraciones debido a sobreestimaciones a bajas Resumen (Castellano) velocidades de viento. Sin embrago, una modificación simple del pre-procesador meteorológico parece mejorar notablemente el comportamiento del modelo. Es de gran importancia que estas diferencias entre las predicciones de los modelos sean consideradas en los procesos de evaluación regulada por los organismos competentes. Esto puede ser realizado mediante la aplicación del modelo más útil para cada caso o, mejor aún, mediante modelos múltiples o híbridos. ABSTRACT Short-range atmospheric dispersion of ammonia (NH3) emitted by agricultural sources and its subsequent deposition to soil and vegetation can lead to the degradation of sensitive ecosystems and acidification of the soil. Atmospheric concentrations and dry deposition rates of NH3 are generally highest near the emission source and so environmental impacts to sensitive ecosystems are often largest at these locations. Under European legislation, several member states use short-range atmospheric dispersion models to estimate the impact of ammonia emissions on nearby designated nature conservation sites. A recent review of assessment methods for short-range impacts of NH3 recommended an intercomparison of the different models to identify whether there are notable differences to the assessment approaches used in different European countries. Based on this recommendation, this thesis compares and evaluates the atmospheric concentration predictions of several models used in these impact assessments for various real and hypothetical scenarios, including Mediterranean meteorological conditions. In addition, various inverse dispersion modelling techniques for the estimation of NH3 emissions rates are also compared and evaluated and a simple screening model to calculate the NH3 concentration and dry deposition rate at a sensitive ecosystem located close to an NH3 source was developed. The model intercomparison evaluated four atmospheric dispersion models (ADMS 4.1; AERMOD v07026; OPS-st v3.0.3 and LADD v2010) for a range of hypothetical case studies representing the atmospheric dispersion from several agricultural NH3 source types. The best agreement between the mean annual concentration predictions of the models was found for simple scenarios with area and volume sources. The agreement between the predictions of the models was worst for the scenario representing the dispersion from a mechanically ventilated livestock house, for which ADMS predicted significantly smaller concentrations than the other models. The reason for these differences appears to be due to the interaction of different plume-rise and boundary layer parameterisations. All four dispersion models were applied to two real case studies of dispersion of NH3 from pig farms in Falster (Denmark) and North Carolina (USA). The mean annual concentration predictions of the models were similar for the USA case study (emissions from naturally ventilated pig houses and a slurry lagoon). The comparison of model predictions with mean annual measured concentrations and the application of established statistical model acceptability criteria concluded that all four models performed acceptably for this case study. This was not the case for the Danish case study (mechanically ventilated pig house) for which the LADD model did not perform acceptably due to the lack of plume-rise processes in the model. Regulatory dispersion models often perform poorly in low wind speed conditions due to the model dispersion theory being inapplicable at low wind speeds. For situations with frequent low wind speed periods, current modelling guidance for regulatory assessments is to use a model that can handle these conditions in an acceptable way. This may not always be possible due to insufficient meteorological data and so the only option may be to carry out the assessment using a more common regulatory model, such as the advanced Gaussian models ADMS or AERMOD. In order to assess the suitability of these models for low wind conditions, they were applied to a Mediterranean case study that included many periods of low wind speed. The case study was the dispersion of NH3 emitted by a pig farm in Segovia, Central Spain, for which mean monthly atmospheric NH3 concentration measurements were made at 21 locations surrounding the farm as well as high-temporal-resolution concentration measurements at one location during a one-week campaign. Two strategies to improve the model performance for low wind speed conditions were tested. These were ‘no zero wind’ (NZW), which replaced calm periods with the minimum threshold wind speed of the model and ‘accumulated calm emissions’ (ACE), which forced the model to emit the total emissions during a calm period during the first subsequent non-calm hour. Due to large uncertainties in the model input data (NH3 emission rates, source exit velocities, boundary layer parameters), the case study was also used to assess model prediction uncertainty and assess how this uncertainty can be taken into account in model evaluations. A dynamic emission model modified for the Mediterranean climate was used to estimate the temporal variability in NH3 emission rates and a comparison was made between the simulations using the dynamic emissions and a constant emission rate. Prediction uncertainty due to model input uncertainty was 67-98% of the mean value for ADMS and between 53-83% of the mean value for AERMOD. Most of this uncertainty was due to source emission rate uncertainty (~50%), followed by uncertainty in the meteorological conditions (~10-20%) and uncertainty in exit velocities (~5-10%). AERMOD predicted higher concentrations than ADMS and more of the simulations met the model acceptability criteria when compared with the annual mean measured concentrations. However, the ADMS predictions were better correlated spatially with the measurements. The use of dynamic emission estimates improved the performance of ADMS but worsened the performance of AERMOD and the application of strategies to improved model performance had similar contradictory effects. In order to compare different inverse modelling techniques, several models (ADMS, LADD and WindTrax) were applied to a non-agricultural case study of a penguin colony in Antarctica. This case study was used since it gave the opportunity to provide the first experimentally-derived emission factor for an Antarctic penguin colony and also had the advantage of negligible background concentrations. There was sufficient agreement between the emission estimates obtained from the three models to define an emission factor for the penguin colony (1.23 g NH3 per breeding pair per day with an uncertainty range of 0.8-2.54 g NH3 per breeding pair per day). This emission estimate compared favourably to the value obtained using a simple micrometeorological technique (aerodynamic gradient) of 0.98 g ammonia per breeding pair per day (95% confidence interval: 0.2-2.4 g ammonia per breeding pair per day). Further application of the inverse modelling techniques for a range of agricultural case studies also demonstrated good agreement between the emission estimates. It is concluded, therefore, that inverse dispersion modelling is a robust technique for estimating NH3 emission rates. Screening models that can provide a quick and approximate estimate of environmental impacts are a useful tool for impact assessments because they can be used to filter out cases that potentially have a minimal environmental impact allowing resources to be focussed on more potentially damaging cases. The Simple Calculation of Ammonia Impact Limits (SCAIL) model was developed as a screening model to provide an estimate of the mean NH3 concentration and dry deposition rate downwind of an agricultural source. This screening tool, based on the LADD model, was evaluated and calibrated with several experimental datasets and then validated using independent concentration measurements made near sources. Overall SCAIL performed acceptably according to established statistical criteria. This work has identified situations where the concentration predictions of dispersion models are similar and other situations where the predictions are significantly different. Some models are simply not designed to simulate certain scenarios since they do not include the relevant processes or are beyond the limits of their applicability. An example is the LADD model that is not applicable to sources with significant exit velocity since the model does not include a plume-rise parameterisation. The testing of a simple scheme combining a momentum-driven plume rise and increased turbulence at the source improved model performance, but more testing is required. Even models that are applicable and include the relevant process do not always give similar predictions and the reasons for this need to be investigated. AERMOD for example predicts higher concentrations than ADMS for dispersion from mechanically ventilated livestock housing. There is evidence to suggest that ADMS underestimates concentrations in these situations due to a high wind speed threshold. Conversely, there is also evidence that AERMOD overestimates concentrations in these situations due to overestimation at low wind speeds. However, a simple modification to the meteorological pre-processor appears to improve the performance of the model. It is important that these differences between the predictions of these models are taken into account in regulatory assessments. This can be done by applying the most suitable model for the assessment in question or, better still, using multiple or hybrid models.

Dynamic analysis of road vehicle-bridge systems under turbulent wind by means of Finite Element Models

When an automobile passes over a bridge dynamic effects are produced in vehicle and structure. In addition, the bridge itself moves when exposed to the wind inducing dynamic effects on the vehicle that have to be considered. The main objective of this work is to understand the influence of the different parameters concerning the vehicle, the bridge, the road roughness or the wind in the comfort and safety of the vehicles when crossing bridges. Non linear finite element models are used for structures and multibody dynamic models are employed for vehicles. The interaction between the vehicle and the bridge is considered by contact methods. Road roughness is described by the power spectral density (PSD) proposed by the ISO 8608. To consider that the profiles under right and left wheels are different but not independent, the hypotheses of homogeneity and isotropy are assumed. To generate the wind velocity history along the road the Sandia method is employed. The global problem is solved by means of the finite element method. First the methodology for modelling the interaction is verified in a benchmark. Following, the case of a vehicle running along a rigid road and subjected to the action of the turbulent wind is analyzed and the road roughness is incorporated in a following step. Finally the flexibility of the bridge is added to the model by making the vehicle run over the structure. The application of this methodology will allow to understand the influence of the different parameters in the comfort and safety of road vehicles crossing wind exposed bridges. Those results will help to recommend measures to make the traffic over bridges more reliable without affecting the structural integrity of the viaduct

Modelling Crowd Load for Floor Vibration Analysis

The dynamic floor loads induced by crowds in gymnasium or stadium structures are commonly modelled by superposition of the individual contributions using reduction factors for the different Fourier coefficients. These Fourier coefficients and the reduction factors are calculated using full scale measurements. Generally the testing is performed on platforms or structures that can be considered rigid, such that the natural frequencies are higher than the frequencies of the spectator movement. In this paper we shall present the testing done on a structure that used to be a gymnasium as well as the procedure used to identify its dynamic properties and a first evaluation of the socalled “group effect”.

Combined static and dynamic assertion-based debugging of constraint logic programs

We propose a general framework for assertion-based debugging of constraint logic programs. Assertions are linguistic constructions for expressing properties of programs. We define several assertion schemas for writing (partial) specifications for constraint logic programs using quite general properties, including user-defined programs. The framework is aimed at detecting deviations of the program behavior (symptoms) with respect to the given assertions, either at compile-time (i.e., statically) or run-time (i.e., dynamically). We provide techniques for using information from global analysis both to detect at compile-time assertions which do not hold in at least one of the possible executions (i.e., static symptoms) and assertions which hold for all possible executions (i.e., statically proved assertions). We also provide program transformations which introduce tests in the program for checking at run-time those assertions whose status cannot be determined at compile-time. Both the static and the dynamic checking are provably safe in the sense that all errors flagged are definite violations of the pecifications. Finally, we report briefly on the currently implemented instances of the generic framework.

User-centric need-driven affect modeling for spoken conversational agents: design and evaluation

It is easy to get frustrated at spoken conversational agents (SCAs), perhaps because they seem to be callous. By and large, the quality of human-computer interaction is affected due to the inability of the SCAs to recognise and adapt to user emotional state. Now with the mass appeal of artificially-mediated communication, there has been an increasing need for SCAs to be socially and emotionally intelligent, that is, to infer and adapt to their human interlocutors’ emotions on the fly, in order to ascertain an affective, empathetic and naturalistic interaction. An enhanced quality of interaction would reduce users’ frustrations and consequently increase their satisfactions. These reasons have motivated the development of SCAs towards including socio-emotional elements, turning them into affective and socially-sensitive interfaces. One barrier to the creation of such interfaces has been the lack of methods for modelling emotions in a task-independent environment. Most emotion models for spoken dialog systems are task-dependent and thus cannot be used “as-is” in different applications. This Thesis focuses on improving this, in which it concerns computational modeling of emotion, personality and their interrelationship for task-independent autonomous SCAs. The generation of emotion is driven by needs, inspired by human’s motivational systems. The work in this Thesis is organised in three stages, each one with its own contribution. The first stage involved defining, integrating and quantifying the psychological-based motivational and emotional models sourced from. Later these were transformed into a computational model by implementing them into software entities. The computational model was then incorporated and put to test with an existing SCA host, a HiFi-control agent. The second stage concerned automatic prediction of affect, which has been the main challenge towards the greater aim of infusing social intelligence into the HiFi agent. In recent years, studies on affect detection from voice have moved on to using realistic, non-acted data, which is subtler. However, it is more challenging to perceive subtler emotions and this is demonstrated in tasks such as labelling and machine prediction. In this stage, we attempted to address part of this challenge by considering the roles of user satisfaction ratings and conversational/dialog features as the respective target and predictors in discriminating contentment and frustration, two types of emotions that are known to be prevalent within spoken human-computer interaction. The final stage concerned the evaluation of the emotional model through the HiFi agent. A series of user studies with 70 subjects were conducted in a real-time environment, each in a different phase and with its own conditions. All the studies involved the comparisons between the baseline non-modified and the modified agent. The findings have gone some way towards enhancing our understanding of the utility of emotion in spoken dialog systems in several ways; first, an SCA should not express its emotions blindly, albeit positive. Rather, it should adapt its emotions to user states. Second, low performance in an SCA may be compensated by the exploitation of emotion. Third, the expression of emotion through the exploitation of prosody could better improve users’ perceptions of an SCA compared to exploiting emotions through just lexical contents. Taken together, these findings not only support the success of the emotional model, but also provide substantial evidences with respect to the benefits of adding emotion in an SCA, especially in mitigating users’ frustrations and ultimately improving their satisfactions. Resumen Es relativamente fácil experimentar cierta frustración al interaccionar con agentes conversacionales (Spoken Conversational Agents, SCA), a menudo porque parecen ser un poco insensibles. En general, la calidad de la interacción persona-agente se ve en cierto modo afectada por la incapacidad de los SCAs para identificar y adaptarse al estado emocional de sus usuarios. Actualmente, y debido al creciente atractivo e interés de dichos agentes, surge la necesidad de hacer de los SCAs unos seres cada vez más sociales y emocionalmente inteligentes, es decir, con capacidad para inferir y adaptarse a las emociones de sus interlocutores humanos sobre la marcha, de modo que la interacción resulte más afectiva, empática y, en definitiva, natural. Una interacción mejorada en este sentido permitiría reducir la posible frustración de los usuarios y, en consecuencia, mejorar el nivel de satisfacción alcanzado por los mismos. Estos argumentos justifican y motivan el desarrollo de nuevos SCAs con capacidades socio-emocionales, dotados de interfaces afectivas y socialmente sensibles. Una de las barreras para la creación de tales interfaces ha sido la falta de métodos de modelado de emociones en entornos independientes de tarea. La mayoría de los modelos emocionales empleados por los sistemas de diálogo hablado actuales son dependientes de tarea y, por tanto, no pueden utilizarse "tal cual" en diferentes dominios o aplicaciones. Esta tesis se centra precisamente en la mejora de este aspecto, la definición de modelos computacionales de las emociones, la personalidad y su interrelación para SCAs autónomos e independientes de tarea. Inspirada en los sistemas motivacionales humanos en el ámbito de la psicología, la tesis propone un modelo de generación/producción de la emoción basado en necesidades. El trabajo realizado en la presente tesis está organizado en tres etapas diferenciadas, cada una con su propia contribución. La primera etapa incluyó la definición, integración y cuantificación de los modelos motivacionales de partida y de los modelos emocionales derivados a partir de éstos. Posteriormente, dichos modelos emocionales fueron plasmados en un modelo computacional mediante su implementación software. Este modelo computacional fue incorporado y probado en un SCA anfitrión ya existente, un agente con capacidad para controlar un equipo HiFi, de alta fidelidad. La segunda etapa se orientó hacia el reconocimiento automático de la emoción, aspecto que ha constituido el principal desafío en relación al objetivo mayor de infundir inteligencia social en el agente HiFi. En los últimos años, los estudios sobre reconocimiento de emociones a partir de la voz han pasado de emplear datos actuados a usar datos reales en los que la presencia u observación de emociones se produce de una manera mucho más sutil. El reconocimiento de emociones bajo estas condiciones resulta mucho más complicado y esta dificultad se pone de manifiesto en tareas tales como el etiquetado y el aprendizaje automático. En esta etapa, se abordó el problema del reconocimiento de las emociones del usuario a partir de características o métricas derivadas del propio diálogo usuario-agente. Gracias a dichas métricas, empleadas como predictores o indicadores del grado o nivel de satisfacción alcanzado por el usuario, fue posible discriminar entre satisfacción y frustración, las dos emociones prevalentes durante la interacción usuario-agente. La etapa final corresponde fundamentalmente a la evaluación del modelo emocional por medio del agente Hifi. Con ese propósito se llevó a cabo una serie de estudios con usuarios reales, 70 sujetos, interaccionando con diferentes versiones del agente Hifi en tiempo real, cada uno en una fase diferente y con sus propias características o capacidades emocionales. En particular, todos los estudios realizados han profundizado en la comparación entre una versión de referencia del agente no dotada de ningún comportamiento o característica emocional, y una versión del agente modificada convenientemente con el modelo emocional propuesto. Los resultados obtenidos nos han permitido comprender y valorar mejor la utilidad de las emociones en los sistemas de diálogo hablado. Dicha utilidad depende de varios aspectos. En primer lugar, un SCA no debe expresar sus emociones a ciegas o arbitrariamente, incluso aunque éstas sean positivas. Más bien, debe adaptar sus emociones a los diferentes estados de los usuarios. En segundo lugar, un funcionamiento relativamente pobre por parte de un SCA podría compensarse, en cierto modo, dotando al SCA de comportamiento y capacidades emocionales. En tercer lugar, aprovechar la prosodia como vehículo para expresar las emociones, de manera complementaria al empleo de mensajes con un contenido emocional específico tanto desde el punto de vista léxico como semántico, ayuda a mejorar la percepción por parte de los usuarios de un SCA. Tomados en conjunto, los resultados alcanzados no sólo confirman el éxito del modelo emocional, sino xv que constituyen además una evidencia decisiva con respecto a los beneficios de incorporar emociones en un SCA, especialmente en cuanto a reducir el nivel de frustración de los usuarios y, en última instancia, mejorar su satisfacción.

Efectos dinámicos debidos al tráfico de ferrocarril sobre la infraestructura de vía y las estructuras

La vía tradicional sobre balasto sigue siendo una selección para las líneas de alta velocidad a pesar de los problemas técnicos y la prestación del funcionamiento. El problema de la vía sobre balasto es el proceso continuo del deterioro de éste debido a las cargas asociadas al tráfico ferroviario. En consecuencia es imprescindible un mantenimiento continuado para mantener un alineamiento adecuado de la vía. Por eso se surge la necesidad de comprender mejor el mecanismo involucrado en el deterioro de la vía y los factores claves que rigen su progresión a lo largo de ciclos de carga con el fin de reducir los costos del mantenimiento de la vía y mejorar el diseño de las nuevas vías. La presente tesis intenta por un lado desarrollar los modelos más adecuados y eficientes del vehículo y de la vía para los cálculos de los efectos dinámicos debido al tráfico de ferrocarril sobre la infraestructura de la vía sobre balasto, y por otro evaluar estos efectos dinámicos sobre el deterioro de la vía sobre balasto a largo plazo, empleando un adecuado modelo de predicción del deterioro de la misma. Se incluye en el trabajo una recopilación del estado del arte en lo referente a la dinámica de la vía, a la modelización del vehículo, de la vía y de la interacción entre ambos. También se hace un repaso al deterioro de la vía y los factores que influyen en su proceso. Para la primera línea de investigación de esta tesis, se han desarrollado los diferentes modelos del vehículo y de la vía y la modelización de la interacción entre ambos para los cálculos dinámicos en dos y tres dimensiones. En la interacción vehículo-vía, se ha empleado la formulación de contacto nodo-superficie para establecer la identificación de las superficies en contacto y el método de los multiplicadores de Lagrange para imponer las restricciones de contacto. El modelo de interacción se ha contrastado con los casos reportados en la literatura. Teniendo en cuenta el contacto no lineal entre rueda-carril y los perfiles de irregularidades distribuidas de la vía, se han evaluado y comparado los efectos dinámicos sobre el sistema vehículo-vía en la interacción de ambos, para distintas velocidades de circulación del vehículo, en los aspectos como la vibración del vehículo, fuerza de contacto, fuerza transmitida en los railpads, la vibración del carril. También se hace un estudio de la influencia de las propiedades de los componentes de la vía en la respuesta dinámica del sistema vehículo-vía. Se ha desarrollado el modelo del asiento de la vía que consiste en la implementación del modelo de acumulación de Bochum y del modelo de hipoplasticidad en la subrutina del usuario \UMAT" del programa ABAQUS. La implementación numérica ha sido comprobado al comparar los resultados de las simulaciones numéricas con los reportados en la literatura. Se ha evaluado la calidad geométrica de la vía sobre balasto de los tramos de estudio con datos reales de la auscultación proporcionados por ADIF (2012). Se ha propuesto una metodología de simulación, empleando el modelo de asiento, para reproducir el deterioro de la geometría de la vía. Se usan los perfiles de la nivelación longitudinal de la auscultación como perfiles de irregularidades iniciales de la vía en las simulaciones numéricas. También se evalúa la influencia de la velocidad de circulación sobre el deterioro de la vía. The traditional ballast track structures are still being used in high speed railways lines with success, however technical problems or performance features have led to ballast track solution in some cases. The considerable maintenance work is needed for ballasted tracks due to the track deterioration. Therefore it is very important to understand the mechanism of track deterioration and to predict the track settlement or track irregularity growth rate in order to reduce track maintenance costs and enable new track structures to be designed. This thesis attempts to develop the most adequate and efficient models for calculation of dynamic track load effects on railways track infrastructure, and to evaluate these dynamic effects on the track settlement, using a track settlement prediction model, which consists of the vehicle/track dynamic model previously selected and a track settlement law. A revision of the state of the knowledge regarding the track dynamics, the modelling of the vehicle, the track and the interaction between them is included. An overview related to the track deterioration and the factors influencing the track settlement is also done. For the first research of this thesis, the different models of vehicle, track and the modelling of the interaction between both have been developed. In the vehicle-track interaction, the node-surface contact formulation to establish the identification of the surfaces in contact and the Lagrange multipliers method to enforce contact constraint are used. The interaction model has been verified by contrast with some benchmarks reported in the literature. Considering the nonlinear contact between wheel-rail and the track irregularities, the dynamic effects on the vehicle-track system have been evaluated and compared, for different speeds of the vehicle, in aspects as vehicle vibration, contact force, force transmitted in railpads, rail vibration. A study of the influence of the properties of the track components on the the dynamic response of the vehicle-track system has been done. The track settlement model is developed that consist of the Bochum accumulation model and the hipoplasticity model in the user subroutine \UMAT" of the program ABAQUS. The numerical implementation has been verified by comparing the numerical results with those reported in the literature. The geometric quality of the ballast track has been evaluated with real data of auscultation provided by ADIF (2012). The simulation methodology has been proposed, using the settlement model for the ballast material, to reproduce the deterioration of the track geometry. The profiles of the longitudinal level of the auscultation is used as initial profiles of the track irregularities in the numerical simulation. The influence of the running speed on the track deterioration is also investigated.

Simplified modelling of bridge abutments-soil interaction under seismic effects

A simplified model is proposed to show the importance that the dynamic soil-abutment interaction can have in the global behavior of bridges submitted to seismic loading. The modification of natural frequency and damping properties is shown in graphic form for typical short span bridges of the integral deck-abutment type for longitudinal vibrations or general ones for transverse vibrations.

A dual-band priority assignment algorithm for dynamic QoS resource management

Future high-quality consumer electronics will contain a number of applications running in a highly dynamic environment, and their execution will need to be efficiently arbitrated by the underlying platform software. The multimedia applications that currently execute in such similar contexts face frequent run-time variations in their resource demands, originated by the greedy nature of the multimedia processing itself. Changes in resource demands are triggered by numerous reasons (e.g. a switch in the input media compression format). Such situations require real-time adaptation mechanisms to adjust the system operation to the new requirements, and this must be done seamlessly to satisfy the user experience. One solution for efficiently managing application execution is to apply quality of service resource management techniques, based on assigning and enforcing resource contracts to applications. Most resource management solutions provide temporal isolation by enforcing resource assignments and avoiding any resource overruns. However, this has a clear limitation over the cost-effective resource usage. This paper presents a simple priority assignment scheme based on uniform priority bands to allow that greedy multimedia tasks incur in safe overruns that increase resource usage and do not threaten the timely execution of non-overrunning tasks. Experimental results show that the proposed priority assignment scheme in combination with a resource accounting mechanism preserves timely multimedia execution and delivery, achieves a higher cost-effective processor usage, and guarantees the execution isolation of non-overrunning tasks.

Modelling wake effects in large wind farms in complex terrain: the problem, the methods and the issues

Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) methods are used in this paper to predict the power production from entire wind farms in complex terrain and to shed some light into the wake flow patterns. Two full three-dimensional Navier–Stokes solvers for incompressible fluid flow, employing k − ϵ and k − ω turbulence closures, are used. The wind turbines are modeled as momentum absorbers by means of their thrust coefficient through the actuator disk approach. Alternative methods for estimating the reference wind speed in the calculation of the thrust are tested. The work presented in this paper is part of the work being undertaken within the UpWind Integrated Project that aims to develop the design tools for next generation of large wind turbines. In this part of UpWind, the performance of wind farm and wake models is being examined in complex terrain environment where there are few pre-existing relevant measurements. The focus of the work being carried out is to evaluate the performance of CFD models in large wind farm applications in complex terrain and to examine the development of the wakes in a complex terrain environment.

Efficient algorithms for dynamic probabilistic safety assessment. An application to convex damage domain.

The design of nuclear power plant has to follow a number of regulations aimed at limiting the risks inherent in this type of installation. The goal is to prevent and to limit the consequences of any possible incident that might threaten the public or the environment. To verify that the safety requirements are met a safety assessment process is followed. Safety analysis is as key component of a safety assessment, which incorporates both probabilistic and deterministic approaches. The deterministic approach attempts to ensure that the various situations, and in particular accidents, that are considered to be plausible, have been taken into account, and that the monitoring systems and engineered safety and safeguard systems will be capable of ensuring the safety goals. On the other hand, probabilistic safety analysis tries to demonstrate that the safety requirements are met for potential accidents both within and beyond the design basis, thus identifying vulnerabilities not necessarily accessible through deterministic safety analysis alone. Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology is widely used in the nuclear industry and is especially effective in comprehensive assessment of the measures needed to prevent accidents with small probability but severe consequences. Still, the trend towards a risk informed regulation (RIR) demanded a more extended use of risk assessment techniques with a significant need to further extend PSA’s scope and quality. Here is where the theory of stimulated dynamics (TSD) intervenes, as it is the mathematical foundation of the integrated safety assessment (ISA) methodology developed by the CSN(Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear) branch of Modelling and Simulation (MOSI). Such methodology attempts to extend classical PSA including accident dynamic analysis, an assessment of the damage associated to the transients and a computation of the damage frequency. The application of this ISA methodology requires a computational framework called SCAIS (Simulation Code System for Integrated Safety Assessment). SCAIS provides accident dynamic analysis support through simulation of nuclear accident sequences and operating procedures. Furthermore, it includes probabilistic quantification of fault trees and sequences; and integration and statistic treatment of risk metrics. SCAIS comprehensively implies an intensive use of code coupling techniques to join typical thermal hydraulic analysis, severe accident and probability calculation codes. The integration of accident simulation in the risk assessment process and thus requiring the use of complex nuclear plant models is what makes it so powerful, yet at the cost of an enormous increase in complexity. As the complexity of the process is primarily focused on such accident simulation codes, the question of whether it is possible to reduce the number of required simulation arises, which will be the focus of the present work. This document presents the work done on the investigation of more efficient techniques applied to the process of risk assessment inside the mentioned ISA methodology. Therefore such techniques will have the primary goal of decreasing the number of simulation needed for an adequate estimation of the damage probability. As the methodology and tools are relatively recent, there is not much work done inside this line of investigation, making it a quite difficult but necessary task, and because of time limitations the scope of the work had to be reduced. Therefore, some assumptions were made to work in simplified scenarios best suited for an initial approximation to the problem. The following section tries to explain in detail the process followed to design and test the developed techniques. Then, the next section introduces the general concepts and formulae of the TSD theory which are at the core of the risk assessment process. Afterwards a description of the simulation framework requirements and design is given. Followed by an introduction to the developed techniques, giving full detail of its mathematical background and its procedures. Later, the test case used is described and result from the application of the techniques is shown. Finally the conclusions are presented and future lines of work are exposed.