Multi-objective Estimation of Distribution Algorithm Based on Joint Modeling of Objectives and Variables

This paper proposes a new multi-objective estimation of distribution algorithm (EDA) based on joint modeling of objectives and variables. This EDA uses the multi-dimensional Bayesian network as its probabilistic model. In this way it can capture the dependencies between objectives, variables and objectives, as well as the dependencies learnt between variables in other Bayesian network-based EDAs. This model leads to a problem decomposition that helps the proposed algorithm to find better trade-off solutions to the multi-objective problem. In addition to Pareto set approximation, the algorithm is also able to estimate the structure of the multi-objective problem. To apply the algorithm to many-objective problems, the algorithm includes four different ranking methods proposed in the literature for this purpose. The algorithm is applied to the set of walking fish group (WFG) problems, and its optimization performance is compared with an evolutionary algorithm and another multi-objective EDA. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm performs significantly better on many of the problems and for different objective space dimensions, and achieves comparable results on some compared with the other algorithms.

Multiple Input-Output Bidirectional Solid State Transformer Based on a Series Resonant Converter

Las fuentes de alimentación de modo conmutado (SMPS en sus siglas en inglés) se utilizan ampliamente en una gran variedad de aplicaciones. La tarea más difícil para los diseñadores de SMPS consiste en lograr simultáneamente la operación del convertidor con alto rendimiento y alta densidad de energía. El tamaño y el peso de un convertidor de potencia está dominado por los componentes pasivos, ya que estos elementos son normalmente más grandes y más pesados que otros elementos en el circuito. Para una potencia de salida dada, la cantidad de energía almacenada en el convertidor que ha de ser entregada a la carga en cada ciclo de conmutación, es inversamente proporcional a la frecuencia de conmutación del convertidor. Por lo tanto, el aumento de la frecuencia de conmutación se considera un medio para lograr soluciones más compactas con los niveles de densidad de potencia más altos. La importancia de investigar en el rango de alta frecuencia de conmutación radica en todos los beneficios que se pueden lograr: además de la reducción en el tamaño de los componentes pasivos, el aumento de la frecuencia de conmutación puede mejorar significativamente prestaciones dinámicas de convertidores de potencia. Almacenamiento de energía pequeña y el período de conmutación corto conducen a una respuesta transitoria del convertidor más rápida en presencia de las variaciones de la tensión de entrada o de la carga. Las limitaciones más importantes del incremento de la frecuencia de conmutación se relacionan con mayores pérdidas del núcleo magnético convencional, así como las pérdidas de los devanados debido a los efectos pelicular y proximidad. También, un problema potencial es el aumento de los efectos de los elementos parásitos de los componentes magnéticos - inductancia de dispersión y la capacidad entre los devanados - que causan pérdidas adicionales debido a las corrientes no deseadas. Otro factor limitante supone el incremento de las pérdidas de conmutación y el aumento de la influencia de los elementos parásitos (pistas de circuitos impresos, interconexiones y empaquetado) en el comportamiento del circuito. El uso de topologías resonantes puede abordar estos problemas mediante el uso de las técnicas de conmutaciones suaves para reducir las pérdidas de conmutación incorporando los parásitos en los elementos del circuito. Sin embargo, las mejoras de rendimiento se reducen significativamente debido a las corrientes circulantes cuando el convertidor opera fuera de las condiciones de funcionamiento nominales. A medida que la tensión de entrada o la carga cambian las corrientes circulantes incrementan en comparación con aquellos en condiciones de funcionamiento nominales. Se pueden obtener muchos beneficios potenciales de la operación de convertidores resonantes a más alta frecuencia si se emplean en aplicaciones con condiciones de tensión de entrada favorables como las que se encuentran en las arquitecturas de potencia distribuidas. La regulación de la carga y en particular la regulación de la tensión de entrada reducen tanto la densidad de potencia del convertidor como el rendimiento. Debido a la relativamente constante tensión de bus que se encuentra en arquitecturas de potencia distribuidas los convertidores resonantes son adecuados para el uso en convertidores de tipo bus (transformadores cc/cc de estado sólido). En el mercado ya están disponibles productos comerciales de transformadores cc/cc de dos puertos que tienen muy alta densidad de potencia y alto rendimiento se basan en convertidor resonante serie que opera justo en la frecuencia de resonancia y en el orden de los megahercios. Sin embargo, las mejoras futuras en el rendimiento de las arquitecturas de potencia se esperan que vengan del uso de dos o más buses de distribución de baja tensión en vez de una sola. Teniendo eso en cuenta, el objetivo principal de esta tesis es aplicar el concepto del convertidor resonante serie que funciona en su punto óptimo en un nuevo transformador cc/cc bidireccional de puertos múltiples para atender las necesidades futuras de las arquitecturas de potencia. El nuevo transformador cc/cc bidireccional de puertos múltiples se basa en la topología de convertidor resonante serie y reduce a sólo uno el número de componentes magnéticos. Conmutaciones suaves de los interruptores hacen que sea posible la operación en las altas frecuencias de conmutación para alcanzar altas densidades de potencia. Los problemas posibles con respecto a inductancias parásitas se eliminan, ya que se absorben en los Resumen elementos del circuito. El convertidor se caracteriza con una muy buena regulación de la carga propia y cruzada debido a sus pequeñas impedancias de salida intrínsecas. El transformador cc/cc de puertos múltiples opera a una frecuencia de conmutación fija y sin regulación de la tensión de entrada. En esta tesis se analiza de forma teórica y en profundidad el funcionamiento y el diseño de la topología y del transformador, modelándolos en detalle para poder optimizar su diseño. Los resultados experimentales obtenidos se corresponden con gran exactitud a aquellos proporcionados por los modelos. El efecto de los elementos parásitos son críticos y afectan a diferentes aspectos del convertidor, regulación de la tensión de salida, pérdidas de conducción, regulación cruzada, etc. También se obtienen los criterios de diseño para seleccionar los valores de los condensadores de resonancia para lograr diferentes objetivos de diseño, tales como pérdidas de conducción mínimas, la eliminación de la regulación cruzada o conmutación en apagado con corriente cero en plena carga de todos los puentes secundarios. Las conmutaciones en encendido con tensión cero en todos los interruptores se consiguen ajustando el entrehierro para obtener una inductancia magnetizante finita en el transformador. Se propone, además, un cambio en los señales de disparo para conseguir que la operación con conmutaciones en apagado con corriente cero de todos los puentes secundarios sea independiente de la variación de la carga y de las tolerancias de los condensadores resonantes. La viabilidad de la topología propuesta se verifica a través una extensa tarea de simulación y el trabajo experimental. La optimización del diseño del transformador de alta frecuencia también se aborda en este trabajo, ya que es el componente más voluminoso en el convertidor. El impacto de de la duración del tiempo muerto y el tamaño del entrehierro en el rendimiento del convertidor se analizan en un ejemplo de diseño de transformador cc/cc de tres puertos y cientos de vatios de potencia. En la parte final de esta investigación se considera la implementación y el análisis de las prestaciones de un transformador cc/cc de cuatro puertos para una aplicación de muy baja tensión y de decenas de vatios de potencia, y sin requisitos de aislamiento. Abstract Recently, switch mode power supplies (SMPS) have been used in a great variety of applications. The most challenging issue for designers of SMPS is to achieve simultaneously high efficiency operation at high power density. The size and weight of a power converter is dominated by the passive components since these elements are normally larger and heavier than other elements in the circuit. If the output power is constant, the stored amount of energy in the converter which is to be delivered to the load in each switching cycle is inversely proportional to the converter’s switching frequency. Therefore, increasing the switching frequency is considered a mean to achieve more compact solutions at higher power density levels. The importance of investigation in high switching frequency range comes from all the benefits that can be achieved. Besides the reduction in size of passive components, increasing switching frequency can significantly improve dynamic performances of power converters. Small energy storage and short switching period lead to faster transient response of the converter against the input voltage and load variations. The most important limitations for pushing up the switching frequency are related to increased conventional magnetic core loss as well as the winding loss due to the skin and proximity effect. A potential problem is also increased magnetic parasitics – leakage inductance and capacitance between the windings – that cause additional loss due to unwanted currents. Higher switching loss and the increased influence of printed circuit boards, interconnections and packaging on circuit behavior is another limiting factor. Resonant power conversion can address these problems by using soft switching techniques to reduce switching loss incorporating the parasitics into the circuit elements. However the performance gains are significantly reduced due to the circulating currents when the converter operates out of the nominal operating conditions. As the input voltage or the load change the circulating currents become higher comparing to those ones at nominal operating conditions. Multiple Input-Output Many potential gains from operating resonant converters at higher switching frequency can be obtained if they are employed in applications with favorable input voltage conditions such as those found in distributed power architectures. Load and particularly input voltage regulation reduce a converter’s power density and efficiency. Due to a relatively constant bus voltage in distributed power architectures the resonant converters are suitable for bus voltage conversion (dc/dc or solid state transformation). Unregulated two port dc/dc transformer products achieving very high power density and efficiency figures are based on series resonant converter operating just at the resonant frequency and operating in the megahertz range are already available in the market. However, further efficiency improvements of power architectures are expected to come from using two or more separate low voltage distribution buses instead of a single one. The principal objective of this dissertation is to implement the concept of the series resonant converter operating at its optimum point into a novel bidirectional multiple port dc/dc transformer to address the future needs of power architectures. The new multiple port dc/dc transformer is based on a series resonant converter topology and reduces to only one the number of magnetic components. Soft switching commutations make possible high switching frequencies to be adopted and high power densities to be achieved. Possible problems regarding stray inductances are eliminated since they are absorbed into the circuit elements. The converter features very good inherent load and cross regulation due to the small output impedances. The proposed multiple port dc/dc transformer operates at fixed switching frequency without line regulation. Extensive theoretical analysis of the topology and modeling in details are provided in order to compare with the experimental results. The relationships that show how the output voltage regulation and conduction losses are affected by the circuit parasitics are derived. The methods to select the resonant capacitor values to achieve different design goals such as minimum conduction losses, elimination of cross regulation or ZCS operation at full load of all the secondary side bridges are discussed. ZVS turn-on of all the switches is achieved by relying on the finite magnetizing inductance of the Abstract transformer. A change of the driving pattern is proposed to achieve ZCS operation of all the secondary side bridges independent on load variations or resonant capacitor tolerances. The feasibility of the proposed topology is verified through extensive simulation and experimental work. The optimization of the high frequency transformer design is also addressed in this work since it is the most bulky component in the converter. The impact of dead time interval and the gap size on the overall converter efficiency is analyzed on the design example of the three port dc/dc transformer of several hundreds of watts of the output power for high voltage applications. The final part of this research considers the implementation and performance analysis of the four port dc/dc transformer in a low voltage application of tens of watts of the output power and without isolation requirements.

Distribution of the coal flow in the mill-duct system of the As Pontes Power Plant using CFD modeling

The efficiency of a Power Plant is affected by the distribution of the pulverized coal within the furnace. The coal, which is pulverized in the mills, is transported and distributed by the primary gas through the mill-ducts to the interior of the furnace. This is done with a double function: dry and enter the coal by different levels for optimizing the combustion in the sense that a complete combustion occurs with homogeneous heat fluxes to the walls. The mill-duct systems of a real Power Plant are very complex and they are not yet well understood. In particular, experimental data concerning the mass flows of coal to the different levels are very difficult to measure. CFD modeling can help to determine them. An Eulerian/Lagrangian approach is used due to the low solid–gas volume ratio.

An Interval-based Multiobjective Approach to Feature Subset Selection Using Joint Modeling of Objectives and Variables

This paper studies feature subset selection in classification using a multiobjective estimation of distribution algorithm. We consider six functions, namely area under ROC curve, sensitivity, specificity, precision, F1 measure and Brier score, for evaluation of feature subsets and as the objectives of the problem. One of the characteristics of these objective functions is the existence of noise in their values that should be appropriately handled during optimization. Our proposed algorithm consists of two major techniques which are specially designed for the feature subset selection problem. The first one is a solution ranking method based on interval values to handle the noise in the objectives of this problem. The second one is a model estimation method for learning a joint probabilistic model of objectives and variables which is used to generate new solutions and advance through the search space. To simplify model estimation, l1 regularized regression is used to select a subset of problem variables before model learning. The proposed algorithm is compared with a well-known ranking method for interval-valued objectives and a standard multiobjective genetic algorithm. Particularly, the effects of the two new techniques are experimentally investigated. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm is able to obtain comparable or better performance on the tested datasets.

Physical and mathematical modeling of wave propagation in the Ariane 5 VEB structure

The separation of the lower stage of the ARIANE 5 Vehicle Equipment Bay (VEB) Structure is to be done using a pyrotechnic device. The wave propagation effects produced by the explosion can affect the electronic equipment, so it was decided to analyze, using both physical and numerical modeling, a small piece of the structure to determine the distribution of the accelerations and the relative importance of damping, stiffness, connections, etc. on the response of the equipment.

Three dimensional (3D) microstructure-based modeling of interfacial decohesion in particle reinforced metal matrix composites

Modeling and prediction of the overall elastic–plastic response and local damage mechanisms in heterogeneous materials, in particular particle reinforced composites, is a very complex problem. Microstructural complexities such as the inhomogeneous spatial distribution of particles, irregular morphology of the particles, and anisotropy in particle orientation after secondary processing, such as extrusion, significantly affect deformation behavior. We have studied the effect of particle/matrix interface debonding in SiC particle reinforced Al alloy matrix composites with (a) actual microstructure consisting of angular SiC particles and (b) idealized ellipsoidal SiC particles. Tensile deformation in SiC particle reinforced Al matrix composites was modeled using actual microstructures reconstructed from serial sectioning approach. Interfacial debonding was modeled using user-defined cohesive zone elements. Modeling with the actual microstructure (versus idealized ellipsoids) has a significant influence on: (a) localized stresses and strains in particle and matrix, and (b) far-field strain at which localized debonding takes place. The angular particles exhibited higher degree of load transfer and are more sensitive to interfacial debonding. Larger decreases in stress are observed in the angular particles, because of the flat surfaces, normal to the loading axis, which bear load. Furthermore, simplification of particle morphology may lead to erroneous results.

BioMet®Tools: from modeling and simulation to product design and development

BioMet®Tools is a set of software applications developed for the biometrical characterization of voice in different fields as voice quality evaluation in laryngology, speech therapy and rehabilitation, education of the singing voice, forensic voice analysis in court, emotional detection in voice, secure access to facilities and services, etc. Initially it was conceived as plain research code to estimate the glottal source from voice and obtain the biomechanical parameters of the vocal folds from the spectral density of the estimate. This code grew to what is now the Glottex®Engine package (G®E). Further demands from users in medical and forensic fields instantiated the development of different Graphic User Interfaces (GUI’s) to encapsulate user interaction with the G®E. This required the personalized design of different GUI’s handling the same G®E. In this way development costs and time could be saved. The development model is described in detail leading to commercial production and distribution. Study cases from its application to the field of laryngology and speech therapy are given and discussed.

Modeling the evolution of item rating networks using time-domain preferential attachment

The understanding of the structure and dynamics of the intricate network of connections among people that consumes products through Internet appears as an extremely useful asset in order to study emergent properties related to social behavior. This knowledge could be useful, for example, to improve the performance of personal recommendation algorithms. In this contribution, we analyzed five-year records of movie-rating transactions provided by Netflix, a movie rental platform where users rate movies from an online catalog. This dataset can be studied as a bipartite user-item network whose structure evolves in time. Even though several topological properties from subsets of this bipartite network have been reported with a model that combines random and preferential attachment mechanisms [Beguerisse Díaz et al., 2010], there are still many aspects worth to be explored, as they are connected to relevant phenomena underlying the evolution of the network. In this work, we test the hypothesis that bursty human behavior is essential in order to describe how a bipartite user-item network evolves in time. To that end, we propose a novel model that combines, for user nodes, a network growth prescription based on a preferential attachment mechanism acting not only in the topological domain (i.e. based on node degrees) but also in time domain. In the case of items, the model mixes degree preferential attachment and random selection. With these ingredients, the model is not only able to reproduce the asymptotic degree distribution, but also shows an excellent agreement with the Netflix data in several time-dependent topological properties.

Multiscale Modeling of Composites: Toward Virtual Testing ... and Beyond

Recent developments in the area of multiscale modeling of fiber-reinforced polymers are presented. The overall strategy takes advantage of the separa-tion of length scales between different entities (ply, laminate, and component) found in composite structures. This allows us to carry out multiscale modeling by computing the properties of one entity (e.g., individual plies) at the relevant length scale, homogenizing the results into a constitutive model, and passing this information to the next length scale to determine the mechanical behavior of the larger entity (e.g., laminate). As a result, high-fidelity numerical sim-ulations of the mechanical behavior of composite coupons and small compo-nents are nowadays feasible starting from the matrix, fiber, and interface properties and spatial distribution. Finally, the roadmap is outlined for extending the current strategy to include functional properties and processing into the simulation scheme.

Morphology and distribution of volcanic bombs in Caldera Quemada de Arriba (Lanzarote, Canary Islands): implications for volcanic hazard analysis

Análisis del riesgo volcánico. We show the preliminary results of the study of 561 volcanic bombs ejected from a pyroclastic cone during the 1730-1736 Timanfaya eruption (Lanzarote, Canary Islands). This cone displays the highest concentration of big bombs (major axis higher than 1 m) of Timanfaya. More than 560 bombs have been studied to calculate their reach. The results suggest that bombs of 1t have a reach of 409 m, while bombs up to 28 t have a reach of 248 m. These data may be used to define a security area once a vent has been opened, but also to calculate other data such the initial velocity of ejection. The geomorphological analysis and the study of the deposits also contribute to better understand an undocumented episode of the Timanfaya eruption and also provide important data for volcanic bombs modeling for volcanic hazard analysis.

Microstructure-based numerical modeling of the mechanical behavior of Mg alloys

Dentro de los materiales estructurales, el magnesio y sus aleaciones están siendo el foco de una de profunda investigación. Esta investigación está dirigida a comprender la relación existente entre la microestructura de las aleaciones de Mg y su comportamiento mecánico. El objetivo es optimizar las aleaciones actuales de magnesio a partir de su microestructura y diseñar nuevas aleaciones. Sin embargo, el efecto de los factores microestructurales (como la forma, el tamaño, la orientación de los precipitados y la morfología de los granos) en el comportamiento mecánico de estas aleaciones está todavía por descubrir. Para conocer mejor de la relación entre la microestructura y el comportamiento mecánico, es necesaria la combinación de técnicas avanzadas de caracterización experimental como de simulación numérica, a diferentes longitudes de escala. En lo que respecta a las técnicas de simulación numérica, la homogeneización policristalina es una herramienta muy útil para predecir la respuesta macroscópica a partir de la microestructura de un policristal (caracterizada por el tamaño, la forma y la distribución de orientaciones de los granos) y el comportamiento del monocristal. La descripción de la microestructura se lleva a cabo mediante modernas técnicas de caracterización (difracción de rayos X, difracción de electrones retrodispersados, así como con microscopia óptica y electrónica). Sin embargo, el comportamiento del cristal sigue siendo difícil de medir, especialmente en aleaciones de Mg, donde es muy complicado conocer el valor de los parámetros que controlan el comportamiento mecánico de los diferentes modos de deslizamiento y maclado. En la presente tesis se ha desarrollado una estrategia de homogeneización computacional para predecir el comportamiento de aleaciones de magnesio. El comportamiento de los policristales ha sido obtenido mediante la simulación por elementos finitos de un volumen representativo (RVE) de la microestructura, considerando la distribución real de formas y orientaciones de los granos. El comportamiento del cristal se ha simulado mediante un modelo de plasticidad cristalina que tiene en cuenta los diferentes mecanismos físicos de deformación, como el deslizamiento y el maclado. Finalmente, la obtención de los parámetros que controlan el comportamiento del cristal (tensiones críticas resueltas (CRSS) así como las tasas de endurecimiento para todos los modos de maclado y deslizamiento) se ha resuelto mediante la implementación de una metodología de optimización inversa, una de las principales aportaciones originales de este trabajo. La metodología inversa pretende, por medio del algoritmo de optimización de Levenberg-Marquardt, obtener el conjunto de parámetros que definen el comportamiento del monocristal y que mejor ajustan a un conjunto de ensayos macroscópicos independientes. Además de la implementación de la técnica, se han estudiado tanto la objetividad del metodología como la unicidad de la solución en función de la información experimental. La estrategia de optimización inversa se usó inicialmente para obtener el comportamiento cristalino de la aleación AZ31 de Mg, obtenida por laminado. Esta aleación tiene una marcada textura basal y una gran anisotropía plástica. El comportamiento de cada grano incluyó cuatro mecanismos de deformación diferentes: deslizamiento en los planos basal, prismático, piramidal hc+ai, junto con el maclado en tracción. La validez de los parámetros resultantes se validó mediante la capacidad del modelo policristalino para predecir ensayos macroscópicos independientes en diferentes direcciones. En segundo lugar se estudió mediante la misma estrategia, la influencia del contenido de Neodimio (Nd) en las propiedades de una aleación de Mg-Mn-Nd, obtenida por extrusión. Se encontró que la adición de Nd produce una progresiva isotropización del comportamiento macroscópico. El modelo mostró que este incremento de la isotropía macroscópica era debido tanto a la aleatoriedad de la textura inicial como al incremento de la isotropía del comportamiento del cristal, con valores similares de las CRSSs de los diferentes modos de deformación. Finalmente, el modelo se empleó para analizar el efecto de la temperatura en el comportamiento del cristal de la aleación de Mg-Mn-Nd. La introducción en el modelo de los efectos non-Schmid sobre el modo de deslizamiento piramidal hc+ai permitió capturar el comportamiento mecánico a temperaturas superiores a 150_C. Esta es la primera vez, de acuerdo con el conocimiento del autor, que los efectos non-Schmid han sido observados en una aleación de Magnesio. The study of Magnesium and its alloys is a hot research topic in structural materials. In particular, special attention is being paid in understanding the relationship between microstructure and mechanical behavior in order to optimize the current alloy microstructures and guide the design of new alloys. However, the particular effect of several microstructural factors (precipitate shape, size and orientation, grain morphology distribution, etc.) in the mechanical performance of a Mg alloy is still under study. The combination of advanced characterization techniques and modeling at several length scales is necessary to improve the understanding of the relation microstructure and mechanical behavior. Respect to the simulation techniques, polycrystalline homogenization is a very useful tool to predict the macroscopic response from polycrystalline microstructure (grain size, shape and orientation distributions) and crystal behavior. The microstructure description is fully covered with modern characterization techniques (X-ray diffraction, EBSD, optical and electronic microscopy). However, the mechanical behaviour of single crystals is not well-known, especially in Mg alloys where the correct parameterization of the mechanical behavior of the different slip/twin modes is a very difficult task. A computational homogenization framework for predicting the behavior of Magnesium alloys has been developed in this thesis. The polycrystalline behavior was obtained by means of the finite element simulation of a representative volume element (RVE) of the microstructure including the actual grain shape and orientation distributions. The crystal behavior for the grains was accounted for a crystal plasticity model which took into account the physical deformation mechanisms, e.g. slip and twinning. Finally, the problem of the parametrization of the crystal behavior (critical resolved shear stresses (CRSS) and strain hardening rates of all the slip and twinning modes) was obtained by the development of an inverse optimization methodology, one of the main original contributions of this thesis. The inverse methodology aims at finding, by means of the Levenberg-Marquardt optimization algorithm, the set of parameters defining crystal behavior that best fit a set of independent macroscopic tests. The objectivity of the method and the uniqueness of solution as function of the input information has been numerically studied. The inverse optimization strategy was first used to obtain the crystal behavior of a rolled polycrystalline AZ31 Mg alloy that showed a marked basal texture and a strong plastic anisotropy. Four different deformation mechanisms: basal, prismatic and pyramidal hc+ai slip, together with tensile twinning were included to characterize the single crystal behavior. The validity of the resulting parameters was proved by the ability of the polycrystalline model to predict independent macroscopic tests on different directions. Secondly, the influence of Neodymium (Nd) content on an extruded polycrystalline Mg-Mn-Nd alloy was studied using the same homogenization and optimization framework. The effect of Nd addition was a progressive isotropization of the macroscopic behavior. The model showed that this increase in the macroscopic isotropy was due to a randomization of the initial texture and also to an increase of the crystal behavior isotropy (similar values of the CRSSs of the different modes). Finally, the model was used to analyze the effect of temperature on the crystal behaviour of a Mg-Mn-Nd alloy. The introduction in the model of non-Schmid effects on the pyramidal hc+ai slip allowed to capture the inverse strength differential that appeared, between the tension and compression, above 150_C. This is the first time, to the author's knowledge, that non-Schmid effects have been reported for Mg alloys.

Thermodynamic aproach to particle size distribution in granular media

The study of particulate systems is of great interest in many fields of science and technology. Soil, sediments, powders, granular materials, colloidal and particulate suspensions are examples of systems involving many size particles. For those systems, the statistical description of the particle size distribution (PSD), that is, the mathematical distribution that defines the relative amounts of particles present, sorted according to size, is a crutial issue. The PSD can be important in understanding soil hydraulic properties, the geological origin or sediments or the physical and chemical properties of granular materials and ceramics, among others.

Air quality modeling and mortality impact of fine particles reduction policies in Spain

Background: In recent years, Spain has implemented a number of air quality control measures that are expected to lead to a future reduction in fine particle concentrations and an ensuing positive impact on public health. Objectives: We aimed to assess the impact on mortality attributable to a reduction in fine particle levels in Spain in 2014 in relation to the estimated level for 2007. Methods: To estimate exposure, we constructed fine particle distribution models for Spain for 2007 (reference scenario) and 2014 (projected scenario) with a spatial resolution of 16x16 km2. In a second step, we used the concentration-response functions proposed by cohort studies carried out in Europe (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects and Rome longitudinal cohort) and North America (American Cancer Society cohort, Harvard Six Cities study and Canadian national cohort) to calculate the number of attributable annual deaths corresponding to all causes, all non-accidental causes, ischemic heart disease and lung cancer among persons aged over 25 years (2005-2007 mortality rate data). We examined the effect of the Spanish demographic shift in our analysis using 2007 and 2012 population figures. Results: Our model suggested that there would be a mean overall reduction in fine particle levels of 1mg/m3 by 2014. Taking into account 2007 population data, between 8 and 15 all-cause deaths per 100,000 population could be postponed annually by the expected reduction in fine particle levels. For specific subgroups, estimates varied from 10 to 30 deaths for all non-accidental causes, from 1 to 5 for lung cancer, and from 2 to 6 for ischemic heart disease. The expected burden of preventable mortality would be even higher in the future due to the Spanish population growth. Taking into account the population older than 30 years in 2012, the absolute mortality impact estimate would increase approximately by 18%. Conclusions: Effective implementation of air quality measures in Spain, in a scenario with a short-term projection, would amount to an appreciable decline infine particle concentrations, and this, in turn, would lead to notable health-related benefits. Recent European cohort studies strengthen the evidence of an association between long-term exposure to fine particles and health effects, and could enhance the health impact quantification in Europe. Air quality models can contribute to improved assessment of air pollution health impact estimates, particularly in study areas without air pollution monitoring data.