Foresight as an innovative tool for designing tourist destinations

Foresight is a relatively new field of study which initially arose to make provisions for the future in science and technology, but nowadays it is increasingly being used in territorial issues. Although the use of foresight tools in the tourism realm has been limited, there is a growing need to manage the increasing uncertainty that surrounds tourism development. Based on these premises, this paper tries to prove the capability of foresight tools to anticipate the impacts of complex global challenges on the tourism field. This assumption is tested through a future vision exercise which explores the evolution of tourism demand segments and its implications in planning tourism destinations. Two major demand segments are visualised for the year 2020 horizon: “Niche and Innovative Demand” and “Massive and Predictable Demand”. For both segments, the tourism consumption chain value is displayed and spatial design guidelines are recommended for sun and beach destinations

Applying foresight tools to determine future demand requirements on tourist destinations

Applying foresight tools to determine future demand requirements on tourist destinations

Change factors that may influence sun and beach destinations in a low-growth scenario

Análisis de los principales factores de cambio que previsiblemente incidirán en los destinos turísticos de sol y playa en un escenario de bajo crecimiento.

Foresight in designing sun-beach destinations

Planteamiento de un Nuevo enfoque metodológico para incorporar la prospectiva en la planificación de destinos turísticos de sol y playa.

Modelling the Impact of Built Environment, Geographical Scales and Latent Constructs On Individual Travel Behaviour

La relación entre la estructura urbana y la movilidad ha sido estudiada desde hace más de 70 años. El entorno urbano incluye múltiples dimensiones como por ejemplo: la estructura urbana, los usos de suelo, la distribución de instalaciones diversas (comercios, escuelas y zonas de restauración, parking, etc.). Al realizar una revisión de la literatura existente en este contexto, se encuentran distintos análisis, metodologías, escalas geográficas y dimensiones, tanto de la movilidad como de la estructura urbana. En este sentido, se trata de una relación muy estudiada pero muy compleja, sobre la que no existe hasta el momento un consenso sobre qué dimensión del entorno urbano influye sobre qué dimensión de la movilidad, y cuál es la manera apropiada de representar esta relación. Con el propósito de contestar estas preguntas investigación, la presente tesis tiene los siguientes objetivos generales: (1) Contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la compleja relación estructura urbana y movilidad. y (2) Entender el rol de los atributos latentes en la relación entorno urbano y movilidad. El objetivo específico de la tesis es analizar la influencia del entorno urbano sobre dos dimensiones de la movilidad: número de viajes y tipo de tour. Vista la complejidad de la relación entorno urbano y movilidad, se pretende contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la relación a través de la utilización de 3 escalas geográficas de las variables y del análisis de la influencia de efectos inobservados en la movilidad. Para el análisis se utiliza una base de datos conformada por tres tipos de datos: (1) Una encuesta de movilidad realizada durante los años 2006 y 2007. Se obtuvo un total de 943 encuestas, en 3 barrios de Madrid: Chamberí, Pozuelo y Algete. (2) Información municipal del Instituto Nacional de Estadística: dicha información se encuentra enlazada con los orígenes y destinos de los viajes recogidos en la encuesta. Y (3) Información georeferenciada en Arc-GIS de los hogares participantes en la encuesta: la base de datos contiene información respecto a la estructura de las calles, localización de escuelas, parking, centros médicos y lugares de restauración. Se analizó la correlación entre e intra-grupos y se modelizaron 4 casos de atributos bajo la estructura ordinal logit. Posteriormente se evalúa la auto-selección a través de la estimación conjunta de las elecciones de tipo de barrio y número de viajes. La elección del tipo de barrio consta de 3 alternativas: CBD, Urban y Suburban, según la zona de residencia recogida en las encuestas. Mientras que la elección del número de viajes consta de 4 categorías ordinales: 0 viajes, 1-2 viajes, 3-4 viajes y 5 o más viajes. A partir de la mejor especificación del modelo ordinal logit. Se desarrolló un modelo joint mixed-ordinal conjunto. Los resultados indican que las variables exógenas requieren un análisis exhaustivo de correlaciones con el fin de evitar resultados sesgados. ha determinado que es importante medir los atributos del BE donde se realiza el viaje, pero también la información municipal es muy explicativa de la movilidad individual. Por tanto, la percepción de las zonas de destino a nivel municipal es considerada importante. En el contexto de la Auto-selección (self-selection) es importante modelizar conjuntamente las decisiones. La Auto-selección existe, puesto que los parámetros estimados conjuntamente son significativos. Sin embargo, sólo ciertos atributos del entorno urbano son igualmente importantes sobre la elección de la zona de residencia y frecuencia de viajes. Para analizar la Propensión al Viaje, se desarrolló un modelo híbrido, formado por: una variable latente, un indicador y un modelo de elección discreta. La variable latente se denomina “Propensión al Viaje”, cuyo indicador en ecuación de medida es el número de viajes; la elección discreta es el tipo de tour. El modelo de elección consiste en 5 alternativas, según la jerarquía de actividades establecida en la tesis: HOME, no realiza viajes durante el día de estudio, HWH tour cuya actividad principal es el trabajo o estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HWHs tour si el individuo reaiza paradas intermedias; HOH tour cuya actividad principal es distinta a trabajo y estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HOHs donde se realizan paradas intermedias. Para llegar a la mejor especificación del modelo, se realizó un trabajo importante considerando diferentes estructuras de modelos y tres tipos de estimaciones. De tal manera, se obtuvieron parámetros consistentes y eficientes. Los resultados muestran que la modelización de los tours, representa una ventaja sobre la modelización de los viajes, puesto que supera las limitaciones de espacio y tiempo, enlazando los viajes realizados por la misma persona en el día de estudio. La propensión al viaje (PT) existe y es específica para cada tipo de tour. Los parámetros estimados en el modelo híbrido resultaron significativos y distintos para cada alternativa de tipo de tour. Por último, en la tesis se verifica que los modelos híbridos representan una mejora sobre los modelos tradicionales de elección discreta, dando como resultado parámetros consistentes y más robustos. En cuanto a políticas de transporte, se ha demostrado que los atributos del entorno urbano son más importantes que los LOS (Level of Service) en la generación de tours multi-etapas. la presente tesis representa el primer análisis empírico de la relación entre los tipos de tours y la propensión al viaje. El concepto Propensity to Travel ha sido desarrollado exclusivamente para la tesis. Igualmente, el desarrollo de un modelo conjunto RC-Number of trips basado en tres escalas de medida representa innovación en cuanto a la comparación de las escalas geográficas, que no había sido hecha en la modelización de la self-selection. The relationship between built environment (BE) and travel behaviour (TB) has been studied in a number of cases, using several methods - aggregate and disaggregate approaches - and different focuses – trip frequency, automobile use, and vehicle miles travelled and so on. Definitely, travel is generated by the need to undertake activities and obtain services, and there is a general consensus that urban components affect TB. However researches are still needed to better understand which components of the travel behaviour are affected most and by which of the urban components. In order to fill the gap in the research, the present dissertation faced two main objectives: (1) To contribute to the better understanding of the relationship between travel demand and urban environment. And (2) To develop an econometric model for estimating travel demand with urban environment attributes. With this purpose, the present thesis faced an exhaustive research and computation of land-use variables in order to find the best representation of BE for modelling trip frequency. In particular two empirical analyses are carried out: 1. Estimation of three dimensions of travel demand using dimensions of urban environment. We compare different travel dimensions and geographical scales, and we measure self-selection contribution following the joint models. 2. Develop a hybrid model, integrated latent variable and discrete choice model. The implementation of hybrid models is new in the analysis of land-use and travel behaviour. BE and TB explicitly interact and allow richness information about a specific individual decision process For all empirical analysis is used a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006 and 2007 in Madrid. Spatial attributes describing neighbourhood environment are derived from different data sources: National Institute of Statistics-INE (Administrative: municipality and district) and GIS (circular units). INE provides raw data for such spatial units as: municipality and district. The construction of census units is trivial as the census bureau provides tables that readily define districts and municipalities. The construction of circular units requires us to determine the radius and associate the spatial information to our households. The first empirical part analyzes trip frequency by applying an ordered logit model. In this part is studied the effect of socio-economic, transport and land use characteristics on two travel dimensions: trip frequency and type of tour. In particular the land use is defined in terms of type of neighbourhoods and types of dwellers. Three neighbourhood representations are explored, and described three for constructing neighbourhood attributes. In particular administrative units are examined to represent neighbourhood and circular – unit representation. Ordered logit models are applied, while ordinal logit models are well-known, an intensive work for constructing a spatial attributes was carried out. On the other hand, the second empirical analysis consists of the development of an innovative econometric model that considers a latent variable called “propensity to travel”, and choice model is the choice of type of tour. The first two specifications of ordinal models help to estimate this latent variable. The latent variable is unobserved but the manifestation is called “indicators”, then the probability of choosing an alternative of tour is conditional to the probability of latent variable and type of tour. Since latent variable is unknown we fit the integral over its distribution. Four “sets of best variables” are specified, following the specification obtained from the correlation analysis. The results evidence that the relative importance of SE variables versus BE variables depends on how BE variables are measured. We found that each of these three spatial scales has its intangible qualities and drawbacks. Spatial scales play an important role on predicting travel demand due to the variability in measures at trip origin/destinations within the same administrative unit (municipality, district and so on). Larger units will produce less variation in data; but it does not affect certain variables, such as public transport supply, that are more significant at municipality level. By contrast, land-use measures are more efficient at district level. Self-selection in this context, is weak. Thus, the influence of BE attributes is true. The results of the hybrid model show that unobserved factors affect the choice of tour complexity. The latent variable used in this model is propensity to travel that is explained by socioeconomic aspects and neighbourhood attributes. The results show that neighbourhood attributes have indeed a significant impact on the choice of the type of tours either directly and through the propensity to travel. The propensity to travel has a different impact depending on the structure of each tour and increases the probability of choosing more complex tours, such as tours with many intermediate stops. The integration of choice and latent variable model shows that omitting important perception and attitudes leads to inconsistent estimates. The results also indicate that goodness of fit improves by adding the latent variable in both sequential and simultaneous estimation. There are significant differences in the sensitivity to the latent variable across alternatives. In general, as expected, the hybrid models show a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to a classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. The integrated model leads to a more detailed analysis of the behavioural process. Summarizing, the effect that built environment characteristics on trip frequency studied is deeply analyzed. In particular we tried to better understand how land use characteristics can be defined and measured and which of these measures do have really an impact on trip frequency. We also tried to test the superiority of HCM on this field. We can concluded that HCM shows a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. And consequently, the application of HCM shows the importance of LV on the decision of tour complexity. People are more elastic to built environment attributes than level of services. Thus, policy implications must take place to develop more mixed areas, work-places in combination with commercial retails.

Sistemas de distribución en entornos de televisión

Actualmente los entornos de televisión manejan gran cantidad de señales procedentes de diferentes fuentes y suministradas en diferentes estándares: SD-SDI,HD-SDI, 3G, DVB-ASI, señales moduladas en banda L. En la gran mayoría de los centros de radiodifusión es necesario al menos en alguno de los pasos del transporte de señales o de su explotación, la replicación de las diferentes señales de entrada a sus diferentes destinos. En el siguiente PFC se tratará de dar a conocer, los principales sistemas que se emplean en los entornos de televisión para la distribución de las señales que se utilizan en los mismos. Los sistemas distributivos se encargan de distribuir y replicar la señal de entrada a ellos hacia diferentes destinos. La principal idea con la que se diseñan estos sistemas es que la señal de entrada no sufra ningún tipo de degradación como fruto de la replicación o división, siendo incluso aconsejable que determinados sistemas regeneren la señal de entrada a sus salidas. El proyecto se divide en tres capítulos: - Capítulo de conceptos teóricos: En el que se presentarán, los fundamentos teóricos que justifican la tecnología utilizada por los diferentes sistemas. - Capítulo de distribución de señales SDI y ASI: En el cual se presentarán los principales sistemas utilizados, para la distribución de señales SD-SDI, HDSDI, 3G y DVB-ASI. - Capítulo de distribución de señales en banda-L: Donde se mostrarán, los principales sistemas de distribución de señales moduladas en banda-L. Al finalizar la lectura del mismo, el lector debería conocer los principales sistemas que se utilizan en la distribución de señales SDI y ASI y en la distribución de señales en banda L. Comprender mediante la teoría expuesta, y los sistemas presentados, las diferentes problemáticas que afrontan los diferentes equipos y la tecnología que subyace en un segundo plano para solventar las problemáticas. Nowadays, broadcast environments, manage an extensive amount of signals from several sources, using differents standards: SD-SDI, HD-SDI, 3G, DVBASI, modulated L band signals. In most of the broadcast infraestructures, it´s usually needed, at any of the transmissions steps, to replicate the source signal to many destinations. This PFC is intended to shown the main systems used to distribute and replicate signals in broadcast environments. Distributive Systems are used to distribute and replicate the source signals to as many destinations as are needed. The main idea behind the design of those systems is to preserve the integrity of the original signal, due to replications or division classical pathologies. Even it is recomendad that those systems are able to regenerate the original signal, trying to avoid or compesate those pathologies. The PFC is divided in three chapters: - Chapter 1: Theorical concepts: In this chapter is presented the minimal theory needed to understand the complex of the tecnology, for those distributive systems. - Chapter 2: Distribution of SDI and ASI signals: It is shown the main systems used to replicate and distribution of the SDI and ASI signals. It will also treatment the state of the art of the actually new systems. - Chapter 3: Distribution of L band signals. It will be shown the main systems used for L band signals At the end of reading this PFC, the reader must known the main systems used for distribution SDI and ASI signals, also L band signals. It is important to understand the contents of the PFC, the systems, the several problems and the background tecnology that is needed to afront the replication known patologies.

Strategies and good practice for sustainable and liveable cities of tomorrow

This contribution deals with the question, what makes cities sustainable and integrative, and suggests an approach for "liveable cities of tomorrow" designed to sustain mobility. The liveable city of tomorrow needs to meet both ecological and social requirements in an integrative approach. To design urban patterns appropriate or “sustainable mobility” based on a concept of mobility defined as the number of accessible destinations (different to that for “fossil mobility” defined as the ability to cover distances) is a key element of such an approach. Considering the limited reserves of fossil fuels and the long lifetime of the built structure, mobility needs to rely on modes independent of fossil fuels (public transport and pedestrians) to make it sustainable and the urban pattern needs to be developed appropriately for these modes. Crucial for the success of public transport is the location of buildings within the catchment area of stops. An attractive urban environment for pedestrians is characterised by short distances in a compact settlement with appropriate/qualified urban density and mixed land use as well as by attractive public space. This, complemented by an integrative urban development on the quarter level including neighbourhood management with a broad spectrum of activity areas (social infrastructure, integration of diverse social and ethnic groups, health promotion, community living, etc.), results in increased liveability. The role of information technology in this context is to support a sustainable use of the built structures by organisational instruments. Sustainable and liveable communities offer many benefits for health, safety and well-being of their inhabitants.

Neighborhood mobility: A Long-Gone Pardigm? Approaching proximity and land use mix using data from home based surveys.

El WCTR es un congreso de reconocido prestigio internacional en el ámbito de la investigación del transporte y aunque las actas publicadas están en formato digital y sin ISSN ni ISBN, lo consideramos lo suficientemente importante como para que se considere en los indicadores. Policies trying to increase walking within urban mobility modal split usually highlight the importance of the functional patterns and the environmental quality of the urban space as major drivers of citizens modal choices. Functional characteristics would be mainly associated to an appropriate mix of land uses within neighbourhoods, whereas environmental quality would be associated to the characteristics of urban spaces. The purpose of this research is threefold: first, to identify relevant proxy indicators, which could characterize pedestrian-friendly land use mix and environmental quality. Second, to assess, for both traits, existing disparities among neighbourhoods in a major metropolitan area. And finally, to explore the association between both indicators and children mobility patterns: according to their built environment, which neighbourhoods have a greater proportion of children and, how is their mobility? Using data from the 2004 household mobility survey in the 128 neighbourhoods of the municipality of Madrid, this paper concludes that potentially favourable conditions at the neighbourhood level seem to have only a modest influence in,mobility patterns , in terms of both, selection of closer destinations and a higher share of walking within modal split. The citys policy choices, with intensive investment in road and public transport infrastructure may explain why short-distance mobility is not as important as it could have been expected in those neighbourhoods with more pedestrian-friendly conditions. The metropolitan transport system is providing mobility conditions, which make far-away destinations attractive to most citizens.

Neighbourhood mobility: a longgone Paradigm? Approaching "proximity" and "land use mix" using data from home-based surveys

Policies trying to increase walking within urban mobility modal split usually highlight the importance of the functional patterns and the environmental quality of the urban space as major drivers of citizens modal choices. Functional characteristics would be mainly associated to an appropriate mix of land uses within neighbourhoods, whereas environmental quality would be associated to the characteristics of urban spaces. The purpose of this research is threefold: first, to identify relevant proxy indicators, which could characterize pedestrian-friendly land use mix and environmental quality. Second, to assess, for both traits, existing disparities among neighbourhoods in a major metropolitan area. And finally, to explore the association between both indicators and children mobility patterns: according to their built environment, which neighbourhoods have a greater proportion of children and, how is their mobility? Using data from the 2004 household mobility survey in the 128 neighbourhoods of the municipality of Madrid, this paper concludes that potentially favourable conditions at the neighbourhood level seem to have only a modest influence in,mobility patterns , in terms of both, selection of closer destinations and a higher share of walking within modal split. The city s policy choices, with intensive investment in road and public transport infrastructure may explain why short-distance mobility is not as important as it could have been expected in those neighbourhoods with more pedestrian-friendly conditions. The metropolitan transport system is providing mobility conditions, which make far-away destinations attractive to most citizens.

High-speed rail systems and tourists´ destination choice: the case studies of Paris and Madrid

The analysis of how tourists select their holiday destinations along with the factors determining their choices is very important for promoting tourism. In particular, transportation is supposed to have a great influence on the tourists’ decisions. The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of High Speed Rail (HSR) systems with respect to a destination choice. Two key tourist destinations in Europe namely Paris, and Madrid, have been chosen to identify the factors influencing this choice. On the basis of two surveys to obtain information from tourists, it has been found that the presence of architectural sites, the promotion quality of the destination itself, and the cultural and social events have an impact when making a destination choice. However the availability of the HSR systems affects the choice of Paris and Madrid as tourist destinations in a different way. For Paris, TGV is considered a real transport mode alternative among tourists. On the other hand, Madrid is chosen by tourists irrespective of the presence of an efficient HSR network. Data collected from the two surveys have been used for a further quantitative analysis. Regression models have been specified and parameters have been calibrated to identify the factors influencing holidaymakers to revisit Paris and Madrid and visit other tourist places accessible by HSR from these capitals

Impact of High-Speed Rail on Tourists' Decisions: Evidence from a Survey Conducted in Paris and in Madrid

The analysis of how tourists select their holiday destinations along with the factors that determine their choices is very important for promoting tourism. In particular, transportation is supposed to have influence on tourists? decissions. The objective of this paper is to investigate more especifically the role of High Speed Rail (HSR) in this choice. Two key tourist destinations in Europe, Paris and Madrid, have been chosen to understand the factors influencing this choice. On the basis of a survey conducted to tourists, we found out that some aspects such as the presence of architectural sites, the quality of promotion of the destination itself, and cultural and social events, have an impact on their choice. However the presence of the HSR system affects the choice of Paris and Madrid as a touristic destination in a different way. For Paris, TGV is considered a real transport mode alternative among tourists who use it quite often. On the other hand, Madrid is chosen by tourists irrespective of the presence of an efficient HSR network. Data collected from the two surveys have been used for a further quantitative analysis. Regression models have been specified and parameters have been calibrated to identify the factors influencing holidaymakers to revisit Paris and Madrid and visit other touristic spots accesible from HSR from these cities.

Accessibility instruments for planning practice: bridging the gap between academic research and decision-making.

One of the core objectives of urban planning practice is to provide spatial equity in terms of opportunities and use of public space and facilities. Accessibility is the element that serves this purpose as a concept linking the reciprocal relationship between transport and land use, thus shaping individual potential mobility to reach the desired destinations. Accessibility concepts are increasingly acknowledged as fundamental to understand the functioning of cities and urban regions. Indeed, by introducing them in planning practice, better solutions can be achieved in terms of spatial equity. The COST Action TU1002 "Accessibility instruments for planning practice" was specifically designed to address the gap between scientific research in measuring and modelling accessibility, and the current use of indicators of accessibility in urban planning practice. This paper shows the full process of introducing an easily understandable measure of accessibility to planning practitioners in Madrid, which is one of the case studies of the above-mentioned COST action. Changes in accessibility after the opening of a new metro line using contour measures were analyzed and then presented to a selection of urban planners and practitioners in Madrid as part of a workshop to evaluate the usefulness of this tool for planning practice. Isochrone maps were confirmed as an effective tool, as their utility can be supplemented by other indicators, and being GIS-based, it can be easily computed (when compared with transport models) and integrated with other datasets.

El recorrido: evaluación de las cualidades sensoriales y formales del medio urbano como parte de los criterios de caminabilidad. La ciudad de Taipei como caso de estudio

La presente investigación aborda el análisis de las cualidades del entorno urbano que inciden en la experiencia perceptiva de su recorrido. Los intereses que la motivan tienen que ver con la recuperación de la ciudad para el viandante y se sitúa dentro de un marco de intereses más amplio como es el de la ciudad sostenible. En primer lugar, se contextualiza el tema de la experiencia del recorrido a través de disciplinas diferentes como son el cine, la literatura, la arquitectura, el urbanismo, la arquitectura del paisaje, la psicología y la estética ambiental. De este modo, se refuerza el argumento en torno al papel que desempeñan la forma y otros estímulos sensoriales en la experiencia del espacio, ya sea éste urbano, arquitectónico o natural. La experiencia que las personas viven al desplazarse por un entorno viene definida por infinitos factores que van desde la configuración física del entorno recorrido, hasta el aprendizaje cultural de la persona que camina; desde los estímulos sensoriales que se reciben, hasta las condiciones físicas que posibilitan la funcionalidad del recorrido; desde las sutilezas de índole secuencial que se desvelan a medida que avanzamos, hasta las condiciones higrotérmicas en el momento en que se lleva a cabo el desplazamiento. Sin embargo, factores como las motivaciones y atenciones personales del que anda, así como sus recuerdos de experiencias anteriores, deseos, imaginación y estado de ánimo, también definen nuestra experiencia al caminar que, indudablemente, se encuentra ligada a nuestra personalidad y, por lo tanto, no puede ser exacta a la de otra persona. Conscientes de que todos estos factores se funden en un fenómeno global, y que no se dan en la vida por separado, nos hemos esforzado por independizar las cualidades sensoriales y formales, únicamente a efectos de investigación. La importancia del tema a investigar reside en las conexiones que existen entre las cualidades del medio construido y la experiencia cotidiana de su recorrido, en la medida en que dicha vinculación establece relaciones con la calidad de vida, la salud de los ciudadanos y sus sentimientos de identidad. En este sentido, el problema clave encontrado es que si la definición de la experiencia del recorrido urbano es demasiado amplia, se vuelve nebulosa e inoperativa, pero si se precisa demasiado, se pueden excluir variables importantes. Hemos concentrado nuestros esfuerzos en buscar un medio que permita hacer operativo el estudio de aspectos que, por su propia naturaleza, son difíciles de controlar y aplicar en la práctica. En este sentido, el campo de estudio que aúna interés en el tema, producción científica y vocación práctica, es el de la caminabilidad de las ciudades. Por esta razón, hemos situado nuestro trabajo dentro del marco de criterios que este campo establece para valorar un entorno caminable. Sin embargo, hemos detectado que los trabajos sobre caminabilidad tienden a desarrollarse dentro de la disciplina del planeamiento de transporte y, con frecuencia, siguiendo las mismas pautas que la investigación sobre el transporte motorizado. Además, la tendencia a proporcionar datos numéricos producto de la medición controlada de variables, para respaldar iniciativas dentro de los ámbitos de toma de decisiones, lleva consigo un progresivo alejamiento de los aspectos más sutiles y próximos de la experiencia de las personas y la especificidad de los lugares. Por estas razones, hemos estimado necesario profundizar en la experiencia peatonal explorando otras líneas de trabajo como son la habitabilidad de las ciudades, políticas llevadas a cabo para mejorar la calidad del espacio público o las certificaciones de sostenibilidad en el ámbito del urbanismo. También se han estudiado las aproximaciones gráficas a la representación y simulación de recorridos urbanos por su importancia en la comunicación y promoción de caminar. Para detectar las problemáticas implicadas en la definición de una herramienta que permita valorar, de manera operativa, la calidad de la experiencia del recorrido urbano, la metodología de valoración propuesta se ha basado en la combinación de distintos métodos y en la conjugación de tres aproximaciones: valoración por parte del investigador en calidad de experto, valoración realizada por el investigador en el papel de usuario y valoración por el ciudadano. El desarrollo de esta investigación se ha visto condicionado por la intención de aplicar lo estudiado en un caso práctico. El marco de criterios que los trabajos sobre caminabilidad de las ciudades establecen para que se dé un entorno caminable, se puede resumir en que concurran los siguientes factores: mezcla de usos, densidad de población y edificación relativamente altas, destinos públicos accesibles a pie, un alto grado de seguridad con respecto al tráfico y actos delictivos, alta funcionalidad (dimensiones, pendientes, etc.) y atractivo. Una vez definido el modelo de ciudad en que es pertinente realizar una investigación sobre las cualidades del entorno urbano responsables de que éste se perciba como atractivo, se escogió la ciudad de Taipei, entre otras razones, por cumplir con los requisitos restantes. Con respecto al caso práctico, el objetivo es detectar fortalezas y debilidades del área central de la ciudad de Taipei en cuanto a la experiencia perceptiva que proporciona a los viandantes. ABSTRACT This research addresses the analysis of the qualities of the urban environment that affect the perceptual experience of walking. The interests lying behind it are related to the recovery of the city for pedestrians, and is framed within the sustainable city framework of interests. Firstly, the issue of the experience of walking is contextualized through different disciplines such as film, literature, architecture, urban planning, landscape architecture, environmental psychology and aesthetics. This way, the argument about the role that form and other sensory stimuli play in the experience of space, whether it is urban, architectural or natural, is strengthened. The walking experience of people is defined by factors ranging from the physical configuration of the environment to the cultural background of the person who walks, from the sensory stimuli that are perceived to the physical conditions that enable the functionality of the walk, from the subtleties of sequential nature that are revealed as we move around to hygrothermal conditions at the specific time of walking. Nevertheless, factors such as personal motivations and attentions of the walker, as well as memories of past experiences, desires, imagination and mood, also define our walking experience that is undoubtedly linked to our personality and, therefore, it cannot be exactly the same as other people's experience. Being aware that all these factors come together in a total phenomenon and that, in real life, they do not exist separately, we focused on separating sensory and formal qualities only for research purposes. The importance of the research topic lies in the connections between the qualities of the built environment and the quotidian experience of walking through it, to the extent that such link establishes relationships with the quality of life, health and feelings of identity of citizens. In this sense, the key problem encountered is that, if the definition of urban walking experience is too broad, it becomes nebulous and non‐operational, but if it is too precise, important variables can be excluded. We concentrated our efforts on finding a way to operationalize the study of questions that, by their very nature, are difficult to control and apply in practice. In this regard, the field of study that combines interest in the topic, scientific production and practical purpose, is the walkability of cities. For this reason, we placed our work within the framework of the set of criteria that this field establishes for assessing an environment as walkable. However, we found that works on walkability tend to be developed within the discipline of transportation planning and often following the same guidelines that research on motorized transport. Furthermore, the tendency to provide numerical data as a result of the controlled measurement of variables in order to support initiatives in decision making areas, involves a progressive distancing from the proximity and the most subtle aspects of the experience of people, and from the specificity of places. For these reasons, we considered it was necessary to deepen into the study of pedestrians experience, by exploring other lines of work such as the livability of cities, implemented policies to improve the quality of the public space or sustainability certifications in urbanism. Graphic representation and simulation of urban walks are also studied due to their important role in communication and promotion of walking. In order to find the issues involved in defining a tool to assess, in an operational way, the quality of urban walking experience, the proposed assessment methodology is based on the combination of different methods and the synthesis of three approaches: assessment by the researcher as expert, assessment by the researcher playing the role of user and assessment by the citizens. The development of this research has been conditioned by our intention of applying it in a case study. The framework of criteria that works on walkability of cities set to define a walkable environment, can be summarized in the following factors: mix of uses, population and building density rather high, public destinations accessible on foot, high levels of safety in terms of traffic and crime, high functionality (dimensions, slopes, etc.) and attractiveness. After defining the model of city in which it is relevant to conduct an investigation on the qualities that are responsible of the attractiveness of the environment; Taipei City was selected because it meets the remaining requirements, among other reasons. Regarding the case study, the goal is to identify strengths and weaknesses in the central area of Taipei City in terms of the perceptual experience of pedestrians.

Pedestrian Motion Prediction: A Graph Based Approach

A novel pedestrian motion prediction technique is presented in this paper. Its main achievement regards to none previous observation, any knowledge of pedestrian trajectories nor the existence of possible destinations is required; hence making it useful for autonomous surveillance applications. Prediction only requires initial position of the pedestrian and a 2D representation of the scenario as occupancy grid. First, it uses the Fast Marching Method (FMM) to calculate the pedestrian arrival time for each position in the map and then, the likelihood that the pedestrian reaches those positions is estimated. The technique has been tested with synthetic and real scenarios. In all cases, accurate probability maps as well as their representative graphs were obtained with low computational cost.