The Economic Value of Residential Land in Historical Areas: An Application of the Residual Method to the Secondary Market

Land value bears significant weight in house prices in historical town centers. An essential aim for regulating the mortgage market, particularly in the financial and property crisis that countries such as Spain are undergoing, is to have at hand objective procedures for its valuation, whatever the conditions (location, construction, planning). Of all the factors contributing to house price make-up, the land is the only one whose value does not depend on acquisition cost, but rather on the location-time binomial. That is to say, the specific circumstances at that point and at the exact moment of valuation. For this reason, the most commonly applied procedure for land valuation in town centers is the use of the residual method: once the selling price of new housing in a district is known, the other necessary costs and expenses of development are deducted, including those of building and the developer’s profit. The value left is that of the land. To apply these procedures it is vital to have figures such as building costs, technical fees, tax costs, etc. But, above all, it is essential to obtain the selling price of the new housing. This is not always feasible, on account of the lack of newbuild development in this location. This shortage of information occurs in historical town cities, where urban renewal is slight due to the heritage-protection policies, and where, nevertheless there is substantial activity in the secondary market. In these circumstances, as an alternative for land valuation in consolidated urban areas, we have the adaptation of the residual method to the particular characteristics of the secondary market. To these ends, there is the proposal for the appreciation of the dwelling which follows, in a backwards direction, the application of traditional depreciation methods proposed by the various valuation manuals and guidelines. The reliability of the results obtained is analyzed by contrasting it with published figures for newly-built properties, according to different rules applied in administrative appraisals in Spain and the incidence of an eventual correction due to conservation state.

Dynamics in the governance of collective irrigation systems: Evidence from field experiments in Nicaragua.

In this paper, we investigate the real demand for climate protection when the purely individual perspective of existing revealed preference studies is relaxed. This is achieved in two treatments; first, we determine the information subjects receive about the demand revealed by other subjects in a similar decision making situation, second, collective action is implemented whereby all subjects are required to purchase the group?s median quantity at a given price. Participants in the experiment were offered the opportunity to contribute to climate protection by purchasing European Union Allowances. Allowances purchased were withdrawn from the European Emissions Trading Scheme. In our experiment, information about other subjects? behaviour has no treatment effect on the demand for climate protection. Under collective action however, the probability of purchasing allowances is higher compared to the reference treatment situation, an individual contribution mechanism. Furthermore, we observe a strong correlation between subjects? demand and their expectations about other participants? behaviour. When collective action is not available, subjects? e xpectations are consistent with free rider behaviour.

Modelling and forecasting fossil fuels, CO2 and electricity prices and their volatilities

In the current uncertain context that affects both the world economy and the energy sector, with the rapid increase in the prices of oil and gas and the very unstable political situation that affects some of the largest raw materials’ producers, there is a need for developing efficient and powerful quantitative tools that allow to model and forecast fossil fuel prices, CO2 emission allowances prices as well as electricity prices. This will improve decision making for all the agents involved in energy issues. Although there are papers focused on modelling fossil fuel prices, CO2 prices and electricity prices, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider all of them together. This paper focuses on both building a multivariate model for the aforementioned prices and comparing its results with those of univariate ones, in terms of prediction accuracy (univariate and multivariate models are compared for a large span of days, all in the first 4 months in 2011) as well as extracting common features in the volatilities of the prices of all these relevant magnitudes. The common features in volatility are extracted by means of a conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic factor model which allows to solve the curse of dimensionality problem that commonly arises when estimating multivariate GARCH models. Additionally, the common volatility factors obtained are useful for improving the forecasting intervals and have a nice economical interpretation. Besides, the results obtained and methodology proposed can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets.

Análisis técnico y financiero de las máquinas de elevación

Los nombres que se usan actualmente para las grúas los ponen las empresas fabricantes y muy frecuentemente no tienen relación con su tipología ni con su capacidad. Por otra parte, es de uso común en la construcción, llamar a las grúas usando su tonelaje nominal que coincide normalmente con su capacidad máxima que se obtiene a radio mínimo. Existe una controversia por el uso de este valor ya que no suele definir bien la capacidad de las maquinas. En cuanto el radio de trabajo se aleja de sus valores mínimos, las grúas están limitadas por el momento de vuelco que no tiene porque comportarse de manera proporcional o ni siquiera relacionada con el valor de la capacidad nominal. Esto hace que comparar grúas mediante sus capacidades nominales (que son sus denominaciones) pueda inducir a errores importantes. Como alternativa, se pretende estudiar el uso de momento máximo de vuelco MLM por sus siglas en ingles (Maximum Load Moment) para intentar definir la capacidad real de las grúas. Se procede a realizar un análisis técnico y financiero de grúas con respecto a ambos valores mencionados con objeto de poder determinar cual de los dos parámetros es más fiable a la hora de definir la capacidad real de estas maquinas. Para ello, se seleccionan dentro de las tres tipologías más importantes por su presencia e importancia en la construcción (grúas de celosía sobre cadenas, grúas telescópicas sobre camión y grúas torre) nueve grúas de distintos tamaños y capacidades con objeto de analizar una serie de parámetros técnicos y sus costes. Se realizan de este modo diversas comparativas analizando los resultados en función de las tipologías y de los tamaños de las distintas maquinas. Para cada máquina se obtienen las capacidades y los momentos de vuelco correspondientes a distintos radios de trabajo. Asimismo, se obtiene el MLM y el coste hora de cada grúa, este último como suma de la amortización de la máquina, intereses del capital invertido, consumos, mantenimiento y coste del operador. Los resultados muestran las claras deficiencias del tonelaje nominal como valor de referencia para definir la capacidad de las grúas ya que grúas con el mismo tonelaje nominal pueden dar valores de capacidad de tres a uno (e incluso mayores) cuando los radios de trabajo son importantes. A raiz de este análisis se propone el uso del MLM en lugar del tonelaje nominal para la denominación de las grúas ya que es un parámetro mucho más fiable. Siendo conscientes de la dificultad que supone un cambio de esta entidad al tratarse de un uso común a nivel mundial, se indican posibles actuaciones concretas que puedan ir avanzando en esa dirección como seria por ejemplo la nomenclatura oficial de los fabricantes usando el MLM dentro del nombre de la grúa que también podría incluir la tipología o al menos alguna actuación legislativa sencilla como obligar al fabricante a indicar este valor en las tablas y características de cada máquina. El ratio analizado Coste horario de la grúa / MLM resulta ser de gran interés y permite llegar a la conclusión que en todas las tipologías de grúas, la eficiencia del coste por hora y por la capacidad (dada por el MLM) aumenta al aumentar la capacidad de la grúa. Cuando los tamaños de cada tipología se reducen, esta eficiencia disminuye y en algunos casos incluso drasticamente. La tendencia del mundo de la construcción de prefabricación y modularización que conlleva pesos y dimensiones de cargas cada vez más grandes, demandan cada vez grúas de mayor capacidad y se podría pensar en un primer momento que ante un crecimiento de capacidades tan significativo, el coste de las grúas se podría disparar y por ello disminuir la eficiencia de estas máquinas. A la vista de los resultados obtenidos con este análisis, no solo no ocurre este problema sino que se observa que dicho aumento de tamaños y capacidades de grúas redunda en un aumento de su eficiencia en cualquiera de las tipologías de estas maquinas que han sido estudiadas. The crane names that are actually used are given by crane manufacturers and, very frequently, they do not have any relationship with the crane type nor with its capacity. On the other hand, it is common in construction to use the nominal capacity (which corresponds in general to the capacity at minimum radius) as crane name. The use of this figure is controversial since it does not really reflect the real crane capacity. When the working radius increases a certain amount from its minimum values, the crane capacity starts to be limited by the crane tipping load and the moment is not really related to the value of the nominal capacity. Therefore, comparing cranes by their nominal capacity (their names) can lead to important mistakes. As an alternative, the use of the maximum load moment (MLM) can be studied for a better definition of real crane capacity. A technical and financial analysis of cranes is conducted using both parameters to determine which one is more reliable in order to define crane’s real capacity. For this purpose, nine cranes with different sizes and capacities will be selected within the most relevant crane types (crawler lattice boom cranes, telescopic truck mounted cranes and tower cranes) in order to analyze several parameters. The technical and economic results will be compared according to the crane types and sizes of the machines. For each machine, capacities and load moments are obtained for several working radius as well as MLM and hourly costs of cranes. Hourly cost is calculated adding up depreciation, interests of invested capital, consumables, maintenance and operator’s cost. The results show clear limitations for the use of nominal capacity as a reference value for crane definition since cranes with the same nominal capacity can have capacity differences of 3 to 1 (or even bigger) when working on important radius. From this analysis, the use of MLM as crane name instead of nominal capacity is proposed since it is a much more reliable figure. Being aware of the difficulty of such change since nominal capacity is commonly used worldwide; specific actions are suggested to progress in that direction. One good example would be that manufacturers would include MLM in their official crane names which could also include the type as well. Even legal action can be taken by simply requiring to state this figure in the crane charts and characteristics of every machine. The analyzed ratio: hourly cost / MLM is really interesting since it leads to the conclusion that for all crane types, the efficiency of the hourly cost divided by capacity (given by MLM) increases when the crane capacity is higher. When crane sizes are smaller, this efficiency is lower and can fall dramatically in certain cases. The developments in the construction world regarding prefabrication and modularization mean bigger weights and dimensions, which create a demand for bigger crane capacities. On a first approach, it could be thought that crane costs could rise significantly because of this capacity hugh increase reducing in this way crane efficiency. From the results obtained here, it is clear that it is definitely not the case but the capacity increase of cranes will end up in higher efficiency levels for all crane types that have been studied.

Estudio y diseño de un régimen fiscal que optimice la inversión en exploración y producción de hidrocarburos

Los regímenes fiscales que se aplican a los contratos de exploración y desarrollo de petróleo y gas, entre los propietarios del recurso natural (generalmente el país soberano representado por su gobierno) y las compañías operadoras internacionales (COI) que aportan capital, experiencia y tecnología, no han sabido responder a la reciente escalada de los precios del crudo y han dado lugar a que los países productores no estén recibiendo la parte de renta correspondiente al incremento de precios. Esto ha provocado una ola de renegociaciones llegándose incluso a la imposición unilateral de nuevos términos por parte de algunos gobiernos entre los que destacan el caso de Venezuela y Argentina, por ser los más radicales. El objetivo del presente trabajo es el estudio y diseño de un régimen fiscal que, en las actuales condiciones del mercado, consiga que los gobiernos optimicen sus ingresos incentivando la inversión. Para ello se simulan los efectos de siete tipos diferentes de fiscalidades aplicadas a dos yacimientos de características muy distintas y se valoran los resultados. El modelo utilizado para la simulación es el modelo de escenarios, ampliamente utilizado tanto por la comunidad académica como por la industria para comparar el comportamiento de diferentes regímenes fiscales. Para decidir cuál de las fiscalidades estudiadas es la mejor se emplea un método optimización multicriterio. Los criterios que se han aplicado para valorar los resultados recogen la opinión de expertos de la industria sobre qué factores se consideran deseables en un contrato a la hora invertir. El resultado permite delinear las características de un marco fiscal ideal del tipo acuerdo de producción compartida, sin royalties, con un límite alto de recuperación de crudo coste que permita recobrar todos los costes operativos y una parte de los de capital en cualquier escenario de precios, un reparto de los beneficios en función de un indicador de rentabilidad como es la TIR, con un mecanismo de recuperación de costes adicional (uplift) que incentive la inversión y con disposiciones que premien la exploración y más la de alto riesgo como la amortización acelerada de los gastos de capital o una ampliación de la cláusula de ringfence. Un contrato con estas características permitirá al gobierno optimizar los ingresos obtenidos de sus reservas de petróleo y gas maximizando la producción al atraer inversión para la exploración y mejorar la recuperación alargando la vida del yacimiento. Además al reducir el riesgo percibido por el inversor que recupera sus costes, menor será la rentabilidad exigida al capital invertido y por tanto mayor la parte de esos ingresos que irá a parar al gobierno del país productor. ABSTRACT Fiscal systems used in petroleum arrangements between the owners of the resource (usually a sovereign country represented by its government) and the international operating company (IOC) that provides capital, knowhow and technology, have failed to allocate profits from the recent escalation of oil prices and have resulted in producing countries not receiving the right share of that increase. This has caused a wave of renegotiations and even in some cases, like Venezuela and Argentina, government unilaterally imposed new terms. This paper aims to outline desirable features of a petroleum fiscal system, under current market conditions, for governments to maximize their revenues while encouraging investment. Firstly the impact of seven different types of fiscal regimes is studied with a simulation for two separate oil fields using the scenario approach. The scenario approach has been frequently employed by academic and business researchers to compare the performance of diverse fiscal regimes. In order to decide which of the fiscal regimes’ performance is best we used a multi-objective optimization decision making approach to assess the results. The criteria applied gather the preferences of a panel of industry experts about the desirable features of a contract when making investment decisions. The results show the characteristics of an ideal fiscal framework that closely resembles a production sharing contract, with no royalty payment and a high cost recovery limit that allows the IOC to recover all operating expenses and a share of its capital costs under any price scenario, a profit oil sharing mechanism based on a profitability indicator such as the ROR, with an uplift that allows to recover an additional percentage of capital costs and provisions that promote exploration investment, specially high-risk exploration, such as accelerated depreciation for capital costs and a wide definition of the ringfence clause. A contract with these features will allow governments to optimize overall revenues from its petroleum resources maximizing production by promoting investment on exploration and extending oil fields life. Also by reducing the investor’s perception of risk it will reduce the minimum return to capital required by the IOC and therefore it will increase the government share of those revenues.