Desing and Validation of a Light Inference System to Support Embedded Context Reasoning

Embedded context management in resource-constrained devices (e.g. mobile phones, autonomous sensors or smart objects) imposes special requirements in terms of lightness for data modelling and reasoning. In this paper, we explore the state-of-the-art on data representation and reasoning tools for embedded mobile reasoning and propose a light inference system (LIS) aiming at simplifying embedded inference processes offering a set of functionalities to avoid redundancy in context management operations. The system is part of a service-oriented mobile software framework, conceived to facilitate the creation of context-aware applications—it decouples sensor data acquisition and context processing from the application logic. LIS, composed of several modules, encapsulates existing lightweight tools for ontology data management and rule-based reasoning, and it is ready to run on Java-enabled handheld devices. Data management and reasoning processes are designed to handle a general ontology that enables communication among framework components. Both the applications running on top of the framework and the framework components themselves can configure the rule and query sets in order to retrieve the information they need from LIS. In order to test LIS features in a real application scenario, an ‘Activity Monitor’ has been designed and implemented: a personal health-persuasive application that provides feedback on the user’s lifestyle, combining data from physical and virtual sensors. In this case of use, LIS is used to timely evaluate the user’s activity level, to decide on the convenience of triggering notifications and to determine the best interface or channel to deliver these context-aware alerts.d

Design and Validation of a Light Inference System to Support Embedded Context Reasoning

Embedded context management in resource-constrained devices (e.g. mobile phones, autonomous sensors or smart objects) imposes special requirements in terms of lightness for data modelling and reasoning. In this paper, we explore the state-of-the-art on data representation and reasoning tools for embedded mobile reasoning and propose a light inference system (LIS) aiming at simplifying embedded inference processes offering a set of functionalities to avoid redundancy in context management operations. The system is part of a service-oriented mobile software framework, conceived to facilitate the creation of context-aware applications?it decouples sensor data acquisition and context processing from the application logic. LIS, composed of several modules, encapsulates existing lightweight tools for ontology data management and rule-based reasoning, and it is ready to run on Java-enabled handheld devices. Data management and reasoning processes are designed to handle a general ontology that enables communication among framework components. Both the applications running on top of the framework and the framework components themselves can configure the rule and query sets in order to retrieve the information they need from LIS. In order to test LIS features in a real application scenario, an ?Activity Monitor? has been designed and implemented: a personal health-persuasive application that provides feedback on the user?s lifestyle, combining data from physical and virtual sensors. In this case of use, LIS is used to timely evaluate the user?s activity level, to decide on the convenience of triggering notifications and to determine the best interface or channel to deliver these context-aware alerts.

Esquema de Referencia para Acoplamiento Débil entre Sistema Informático y Equipo de Producción

La meta de intercambiabilidad de piezas establecida en los sistemas de producción del siglo XIX, es ampliada en el último cuarto del siglo pasado para lograr la capacidad de fabricación de varios tipos de producto en un mismo sistema de manufactura, requerimiento impulsado por la incertidumbre del mercado. Esta incertidumbre conduce a plantear la flexibilidad como característica importante en el sistema de producción. La presente tesis se ubica en el problema de integración del sistema informático (SI) con el equipo de producción (EP) en la búsqueda de una solución que coadyuve a satisfacer los requerimientos de flexibilidad impuestas por las condiciones actuales de mercado. Se describen antecedentes de los sistemas de producción actuales y del concepto de flexibilidad. Se propone una clasificación compacta y práctica de los tipos de flexibilidad relevantes en el problema de integración SI-EP, con la finalidad de ubicar el significado de flexibilidad en el área de interés. Así mismo, las variables a manejar en la solución son clasificadas en cuatro tipos: Medio físico, lenguajes de programación y controlador, naturaleza del equipo y componentes de acoplamiento. Por otra parte, la característica de reusabilidad como un efecto importante y deseable de un sistema flexible, es planteada como meta en la solución propuesta no solo a nivel aplicación del sistema sino también a nivel de reuso de conceptos de diseño. Se propone un esquema de referencia en tres niveles de abstracción, que permita manejar y reutilizar en forma organizada el conocimiento del dominio de aplicación (integración SI-EP), el desarrollo de sistemas de aplicación genérica así como también la aplicación del mismo en un caso particular. Un análisis del concepto de acoplamiento débil (AD) es utilizado como base en la solución propuesta al problema de integración SI-EP. El desarrollo inicia identificando condiciones para la existencia del acoplamiento débil, compensadores para soportar la operación del sistema bajo AD y los efectos que ocasionan en el sistema informático los cambios en el conjunto de equipos de producción. Así mismo, se introducen como componentes principales del acoplamiento los componentes tecnológico, tarea y rol, a utilizar en el análisis de los requerimientos para el desarrollo de una solución de AD entre SI-EP. La estructura de tres niveles del esquema de referencia propuesto surge del análisis del significado de conceptos de referencia comúnmente reportados en la literatura, tales como arquitectura de referencia, modelo de referencia, marco de trabajo, entre otros. Se presenta un análisis de su significado como base para la definición de cada uno de los niveles de la estructura del esquema, pretendiendo con ello evitar la ambigüedad existente debido al uso indistinto de tales conceptos en la literatura revisada. Por otra parte, la relación entre niveles es definida tomando como base la estructura de cuatro capas planteada en el área de modelado de datos. La arquitectura de referencia, implementada en el primer nivel del esquema propuesto es utilizada como base para el desarrollo del modelo de referencia o marco de trabajo para el acoplamiento débil entre el SI y el EP. La solución propuesta es validada en la integración de un sistema informático de coordinación de flujo y procesamiento de pieza con un conjunto variable de equipos de diferentes tipos, naturaleza y fabricantes. En el ejercicio de validación se abordaron diferentes estándares y técnicas comúnmente empleadas como soporte al problema de integración a nivel componente tecnológico, tales como herramientas de cero configuración (ejemplo: plug and play), estándar OPC-UA, colas de mensajes y servicios web, permitiendo así ubicar el apoyo de estas técnicas en el ámbito del componente tecnológico y su relación con los otros componentes de acoplamiento: tarea y rol. ABSTRACT The interchangeability of parts, as a goal of manufacturing systems at the nineteenth century, is extended into the present to achieve the ability to manufacture various types of products in the same manufacturing system, requirement associated with market uncertainty. This uncertainty raises flexibility as an important feature in the production system. This thesis addresses the problem regarding integration of software system (SS) and the set of production equipment (PE); looking for a solution that contributes to satisfy the requirements of flexibility that the current market conditions impose on manufacturing, particularly to the production floor. Antecedents to actual production systems as well as the concept of flexibility are described and analyzed in detail. A practical and compact classification of flexibility types of relevance to the integration SS-EP problem is proposed with the aim to delimit the meaning of flexibility regarding the area of interest. Also, a classification for the variables involved in the integration problem is presented into four types: Physical media, programming and controller languages, equipment nature and coupling components. In addition, the characteristic of reusability that has been seen as an important and desirable effect of a flexible system is taken as a goal in the proposed solution, not only at system implementation level but also at system design level. In this direction, a reference scheme is proposed consisting of three abstraction levels to systematically support management and reuse of domain knowledge (SS-PE), development of a generic system as well as its application in a particular case. The concept of loose coupling is used as a basis in the development of the proposed solution to the problem of integration SS-EP. The first step of the development process consists of an analysis of the loose coupled concept, identifying conditions for its existence, compensators for system operation under loose coupling conditions as well as effects in the software system caused by modification in the set of production equipment. In addition coupling components: technological, task and role are introduced as main components to support the analysis of requirements regarding loose coupling of SS-PE. The three tier structure of the proposed reference scheme emerges from the analysis of reference concepts commonly reported in the literature, such as reference architecture, reference model and framework, among others. An analysis of these concepts is used as a basis for definition of the structure levels of the proposed scheme, trying to avoid the ambiguity due to the indiscriminate use of such concepts in the reviewed literature. In addition, the relation between adjacent levels of the structure is defined based on the four tiers structure commonly used in the data modelling area. The reference architecture is located as the first level in the structure of the proposed reference scheme and it is utilized as a basis for the development of the reference model or loose coupling framework for SS-PE integration. The proposed solution is validated by integrating a software system (process and piece flow coordination system) with a variable set of production equipment including different types, nature and manufacturers of equipment. Furthermore, in this validation exercise, different standards and techniques commonly used have been taken into account to support the issue of technology coupling component, such as tools for zero configuration (i.e. Plug and Play), message queues, OPC-UA standard, and web services. Through this part of the validation exercise, these integration tools are located as a part of the technological component and they are related to the role and task components of coupling.

Modelling spatial decisión support systems focused on the development of a data warehouse: applying software engineering

Nowadays, organizations have plenty of data stored in DB databases, which contain invaluable information. Decision Support Systems DSS provide the support needed to manage this information and planning médium and long-term ?the modus operandi? of these organizations. Despite the growing importance of these systems, most proposals do not include its total evelopment, mostly limiting itself on the development of isolated parts, which often have serious integration problems. Hence, methodologies that include models and processes that consider every factor are necessary. This paper will try to fill this void as it proposes an approach for developing spatial DSS driven by the development of their associated Data Warehouse DW, without forgetting its other components. To the end of framing the proposal different Engineering Software focus (The Software Engineering Process and Model Driven Architecture) are used, and coupling with the DB development methodology, (and both of them adapted to DW peculiarities). Finally, an example illustrates the proposal.

Assessing the effects of complexity in cross-temporal transferability of species distribution modelling predictions using palaeobotanical data

Valoración de la transferencia temporal de los modelos de distribución de especies para su aplicación en nuestros días utilizando datos paleobotánicos Corilus avellana y Alnus glutinosa.

Multisensor data fusion for accurate modelling of mobile objects

In the last decade, multi-sensor data fusion has become a broadly demanded discipline to achieve advanced solutions that can be applied in many real world situations, either civil or military. In Defence,accurate detection of all target objects is fundamental to maintaining situational awareness, to locating threats in the battlefield and to identifying and protecting strategically own forces. Civil applications, such as traffic monitoring, have similar requirements in terms of object detection and reliable identification of incidents in order to ensure safety of road users. Thanks to the appropriate data fusion technique, we can give these systems the power to exploit automatically all relevant information from multiple sources to face for instance mission needs or assess daily supervision operations. This paper focuses on its application to active vehicle monitoring in a particular area of high density traffic, and how it is redirecting the research activities being carried out in the computer vision, signal processing and machine learning fields for improving the effectiveness of detection and tracking in ground surveillance scenarios in general. Specifically, our system proposes fusion of data at a feature level which is extracted from a video camera and a laser scanner. In addition, a stochastic-based tracking which introduces some particle filters into the model to deal with uncertainty due to occlusions and improve the previous detection output is presented in this paper. It has been shown that this computer vision tracker contributes to detect objects even under poor visual information. Finally, in the same way that humans are able to analyze both temporal and spatial relations among items in the scene to associate them a meaning, once the targets objects have been correctly detected and tracked, it is desired that machines can provide a trustworthy description of what is happening in the scene under surveillance. Accomplishing so ambitious task requires a machine learning-based hierarchic architecture able to extract and analyse behaviours at different abstraction levels. A real experimental testbed has been implemented for the evaluation of the proposed modular system. Such scenario is a closed circuit where real traffic situations can be simulated. First results have shown the strength of the proposed system.

Modelling the Impact of Built Environment, Geographical Scales and Latent Constructs On Individual Travel Behaviour

La relación entre la estructura urbana y la movilidad ha sido estudiada desde hace más de 70 años. El entorno urbano incluye múltiples dimensiones como por ejemplo: la estructura urbana, los usos de suelo, la distribución de instalaciones diversas (comercios, escuelas y zonas de restauración, parking, etc.). Al realizar una revisión de la literatura existente en este contexto, se encuentran distintos análisis, metodologías, escalas geográficas y dimensiones, tanto de la movilidad como de la estructura urbana. En este sentido, se trata de una relación muy estudiada pero muy compleja, sobre la que no existe hasta el momento un consenso sobre qué dimensión del entorno urbano influye sobre qué dimensión de la movilidad, y cuál es la manera apropiada de representar esta relación. Con el propósito de contestar estas preguntas investigación, la presente tesis tiene los siguientes objetivos generales: (1) Contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la compleja relación estructura urbana y movilidad. y (2) Entender el rol de los atributos latentes en la relación entorno urbano y movilidad. El objetivo específico de la tesis es analizar la influencia del entorno urbano sobre dos dimensiones de la movilidad: número de viajes y tipo de tour. Vista la complejidad de la relación entorno urbano y movilidad, se pretende contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la relación a través de la utilización de 3 escalas geográficas de las variables y del análisis de la influencia de efectos inobservados en la movilidad. Para el análisis se utiliza una base de datos conformada por tres tipos de datos: (1) Una encuesta de movilidad realizada durante los años 2006 y 2007. Se obtuvo un total de 943 encuestas, en 3 barrios de Madrid: Chamberí, Pozuelo y Algete. (2) Información municipal del Instituto Nacional de Estadística: dicha información se encuentra enlazada con los orígenes y destinos de los viajes recogidos en la encuesta. Y (3) Información georeferenciada en Arc-GIS de los hogares participantes en la encuesta: la base de datos contiene información respecto a la estructura de las calles, localización de escuelas, parking, centros médicos y lugares de restauración. Se analizó la correlación entre e intra-grupos y se modelizaron 4 casos de atributos bajo la estructura ordinal logit. Posteriormente se evalúa la auto-selección a través de la estimación conjunta de las elecciones de tipo de barrio y número de viajes. La elección del tipo de barrio consta de 3 alternativas: CBD, Urban y Suburban, según la zona de residencia recogida en las encuestas. Mientras que la elección del número de viajes consta de 4 categorías ordinales: 0 viajes, 1-2 viajes, 3-4 viajes y 5 o más viajes. A partir de la mejor especificación del modelo ordinal logit. Se desarrolló un modelo joint mixed-ordinal conjunto. Los resultados indican que las variables exógenas requieren un análisis exhaustivo de correlaciones con el fin de evitar resultados sesgados. ha determinado que es importante medir los atributos del BE donde se realiza el viaje, pero también la información municipal es muy explicativa de la movilidad individual. Por tanto, la percepción de las zonas de destino a nivel municipal es considerada importante. En el contexto de la Auto-selección (self-selection) es importante modelizar conjuntamente las decisiones. La Auto-selección existe, puesto que los parámetros estimados conjuntamente son significativos. Sin embargo, sólo ciertos atributos del entorno urbano son igualmente importantes sobre la elección de la zona de residencia y frecuencia de viajes. Para analizar la Propensión al Viaje, se desarrolló un modelo híbrido, formado por: una variable latente, un indicador y un modelo de elección discreta. La variable latente se denomina “Propensión al Viaje”, cuyo indicador en ecuación de medida es el número de viajes; la elección discreta es el tipo de tour. El modelo de elección consiste en 5 alternativas, según la jerarquía de actividades establecida en la tesis: HOME, no realiza viajes durante el día de estudio, HWH tour cuya actividad principal es el trabajo o estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HWHs tour si el individuo reaiza paradas intermedias; HOH tour cuya actividad principal es distinta a trabajo y estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HOHs donde se realizan paradas intermedias. Para llegar a la mejor especificación del modelo, se realizó un trabajo importante considerando diferentes estructuras de modelos y tres tipos de estimaciones. De tal manera, se obtuvieron parámetros consistentes y eficientes. Los resultados muestran que la modelización de los tours, representa una ventaja sobre la modelización de los viajes, puesto que supera las limitaciones de espacio y tiempo, enlazando los viajes realizados por la misma persona en el día de estudio. La propensión al viaje (PT) existe y es específica para cada tipo de tour. Los parámetros estimados en el modelo híbrido resultaron significativos y distintos para cada alternativa de tipo de tour. Por último, en la tesis se verifica que los modelos híbridos representan una mejora sobre los modelos tradicionales de elección discreta, dando como resultado parámetros consistentes y más robustos. En cuanto a políticas de transporte, se ha demostrado que los atributos del entorno urbano son más importantes que los LOS (Level of Service) en la generación de tours multi-etapas. la presente tesis representa el primer análisis empírico de la relación entre los tipos de tours y la propensión al viaje. El concepto Propensity to Travel ha sido desarrollado exclusivamente para la tesis. Igualmente, el desarrollo de un modelo conjunto RC-Number of trips basado en tres escalas de medida representa innovación en cuanto a la comparación de las escalas geográficas, que no había sido hecha en la modelización de la self-selection. The relationship between built environment (BE) and travel behaviour (TB) has been studied in a number of cases, using several methods - aggregate and disaggregate approaches - and different focuses – trip frequency, automobile use, and vehicle miles travelled and so on. Definitely, travel is generated by the need to undertake activities and obtain services, and there is a general consensus that urban components affect TB. However researches are still needed to better understand which components of the travel behaviour are affected most and by which of the urban components. In order to fill the gap in the research, the present dissertation faced two main objectives: (1) To contribute to the better understanding of the relationship between travel demand and urban environment. And (2) To develop an econometric model for estimating travel demand with urban environment attributes. With this purpose, the present thesis faced an exhaustive research and computation of land-use variables in order to find the best representation of BE for modelling trip frequency. In particular two empirical analyses are carried out: 1. Estimation of three dimensions of travel demand using dimensions of urban environment. We compare different travel dimensions and geographical scales, and we measure self-selection contribution following the joint models. 2. Develop a hybrid model, integrated latent variable and discrete choice model. The implementation of hybrid models is new in the analysis of land-use and travel behaviour. BE and TB explicitly interact and allow richness information about a specific individual decision process For all empirical analysis is used a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006 and 2007 in Madrid. Spatial attributes describing neighbourhood environment are derived from different data sources: National Institute of Statistics-INE (Administrative: municipality and district) and GIS (circular units). INE provides raw data for such spatial units as: municipality and district. The construction of census units is trivial as the census bureau provides tables that readily define districts and municipalities. The construction of circular units requires us to determine the radius and associate the spatial information to our households. The first empirical part analyzes trip frequency by applying an ordered logit model. In this part is studied the effect of socio-economic, transport and land use characteristics on two travel dimensions: trip frequency and type of tour. In particular the land use is defined in terms of type of neighbourhoods and types of dwellers. Three neighbourhood representations are explored, and described three for constructing neighbourhood attributes. In particular administrative units are examined to represent neighbourhood and circular – unit representation. Ordered logit models are applied, while ordinal logit models are well-known, an intensive work for constructing a spatial attributes was carried out. On the other hand, the second empirical analysis consists of the development of an innovative econometric model that considers a latent variable called “propensity to travel”, and choice model is the choice of type of tour. The first two specifications of ordinal models help to estimate this latent variable. The latent variable is unobserved but the manifestation is called “indicators”, then the probability of choosing an alternative of tour is conditional to the probability of latent variable and type of tour. Since latent variable is unknown we fit the integral over its distribution. Four “sets of best variables” are specified, following the specification obtained from the correlation analysis. The results evidence that the relative importance of SE variables versus BE variables depends on how BE variables are measured. We found that each of these three spatial scales has its intangible qualities and drawbacks. Spatial scales play an important role on predicting travel demand due to the variability in measures at trip origin/destinations within the same administrative unit (municipality, district and so on). Larger units will produce less variation in data; but it does not affect certain variables, such as public transport supply, that are more significant at municipality level. By contrast, land-use measures are more efficient at district level. Self-selection in this context, is weak. Thus, the influence of BE attributes is true. The results of the hybrid model show that unobserved factors affect the choice of tour complexity. The latent variable used in this model is propensity to travel that is explained by socioeconomic aspects and neighbourhood attributes. The results show that neighbourhood attributes have indeed a significant impact on the choice of the type of tours either directly and through the propensity to travel. The propensity to travel has a different impact depending on the structure of each tour and increases the probability of choosing more complex tours, such as tours with many intermediate stops. The integration of choice and latent variable model shows that omitting important perception and attitudes leads to inconsistent estimates. The results also indicate that goodness of fit improves by adding the latent variable in both sequential and simultaneous estimation. There are significant differences in the sensitivity to the latent variable across alternatives. In general, as expected, the hybrid models show a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to a classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. The integrated model leads to a more detailed analysis of the behavioural process. Summarizing, the effect that built environment characteristics on trip frequency studied is deeply analyzed. In particular we tried to better understand how land use characteristics can be defined and measured and which of these measures do have really an impact on trip frequency. We also tried to test the superiority of HCM on this field. We can concluded that HCM shows a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. And consequently, the application of HCM shows the importance of LV on the decision of tour complexity. People are more elastic to built environment attributes than level of services. Thus, policy implications must take place to develop more mixed areas, work-places in combination with commercial retails.

Seismic modelling and ava analysis of hidrocarbon traps

In this study, forward seismic modelling of four geological models with Hydrocarbon (HC) traps were performed by ray tracing method to produce synthetic seismogram of each model. The idea is to identify the Hydrocarbon Indicators (HCI‟s) such as bright spot, flat spot, dim spot and Bottom Simulating Reflector (BSR) in the synthethic seismogram. The modelling was performed in DISCO/FOCUS 5.0 seismic data processing programme. Strong positive and negative reflection amplitudes and some artifact reflection horizons were observed on produced seismograms due to rapid changes in subsurface velocity and geometry respectively Additionally, Amplitude-versus-angle (AVA) curves of each HCIs was calculated by the Crewes Zoeppritz Explorer programme. AVA curves show that how the reflection coefficients change with the density and the P and S wave velocities of each layer such as oil, gas, gas hydrate or water saturated sediments. Due to AVA curves, an increase in reflection amplitude with incident angle of seismic waves corresponds to an indicator of a hydrocarbon reservoir

Comparison of different stomatal conductance algorithms for ozone flux modelling

A multiplicative and a semi-mechanistic, BWB-type [Ball, J.T., Woodrow, I.E., Berry, J.A., 1987. A model predicting stomatalconductance and its contribution to the control of photosynthesis under different environmental conditions. In: Biggens, J. (Ed.), Progress in Photosynthesis Research, vol. IV. Martinus Nijhoff, Dordrecht, pp. 221–224.] algorithm for calculating stomatalconductance (gs) at the leaf level have been parameterised for two crop and two tree species to test their use in regional scale ozone deposition modelling. The algorithms were tested against measured, site-specific data for durum wheat, grapevine, beech and birch of different European provenances. A direct comparison of both algorithms showed a similar performance in predicting hourly means and daily time-courses of gs, whereas the multiplicative algorithm outperformed the BWB-type algorithm in modelling seasonal time-courses due to the inclusion of a phenology function. The re-parameterisation of the algorithms for local conditions in order to validate ozone deposition modelling on a European scale reveals the higher input requirements of the BWB-type algorithm as compared to the multiplicative algorithm because of the need of the former to model net photosynthesis (An)

An investigation of the performance of a new Mechanical thrombectomy device using Bond Graph modelling: application to the extraction of blood clots in the middle cerebral artery

A number of thrombectomy devices using a variety of methods have now been developed to facilitate clot removal. We present research involving one such experimental device recently developed in the UK, called a ‘GP’ Thrombus Aspiration Device (GPTAD). This device has the potential to bring about the extraction of a thrombus. Although the device is at a relatively early stage of development, the results look encouraging. In this work, we present an analysis and modeling of the GPTAD by means of the bond graph technique; it seems to be a highly effective method of simulating the device under a variety of conditions. Such modeling is useful in optimizing the GPTAD and predicting the result of clot extraction. The aim of this simulation model is to obtain the minimum pressure necessary to extract the clot and to verify that both the pressure and the time required to complete the clot extraction are realistic for use in clinical situations, and are consistent with any experimentally obtained data. We therefore consider aspects of rheology and mechanics in our modeling.

An Intercomparison of Modelling Approaches for Simulating the Atmospheric Dispersion of Ammonia Emitted by Agricultural Sources

RESUMEN La dispersión del amoniaco (NH3) emitido por fuentes agrícolas en medias distancias, y su posterior deposición en el suelo y la vegetación, pueden llevar a la degradación de ecosistemas vulnerables y a la acidificación de los suelos. La deposición de NH3 suele ser mayor junto a la fuente emisora, por lo que los impactos negativos de dichas emisiones son generalmente mayores en esas zonas. Bajo la legislación comunitaria, varios estados miembros emplean modelos de dispersión inversa para estimar los impactos de las emisiones en las proximidades de las zonas naturales de especial conservación. Una revisión reciente de métodos para evaluar impactos de NH3 en distancias medias recomendaba la comparación de diferentes modelos para identificar diferencias importantes entre los métodos empleados por los distintos países de la UE. En base a esta recomendación, esta tesis doctoral compara y evalúa las predicciones de las concentraciones atmosféricas de NH3 de varios modelos bajo condiciones, tanto reales como hipotéticas, que plantean un potencial impacto sobre ecosistemas (incluidos aquellos bajo condiciones de clima Mediterráneo). En este sentido, se procedió además a la comparación y evaluación de varias técnicas de modelización inversa para inferir emisiones de NH3. Finalmente, se ha desarrollado un modelo matemático simple para calcular las concentraciones de NH3 y la velocidad de deposición de NH3 en ecosistemas vulnerables cercanos a una fuente emisora. La comparativa de modelos supuso la evaluación de cuatro modelos de dispersión (ADMS 4.1; AERMOD v07026; OPS-st v3.0.3 y LADD v2010) en un amplio rango de casos hipotéticos (dispersión de NH3 procedente de distintos tipos de fuentes agrícolas de emisión). La menor diferencia entre las concentraciones medias estimadas por los distintos modelos se obtuvo para escenarios simples. La convergencia entre las predicciones de los modelos fue mínima para el escenario relativo a la dispersión de NH3 procedente de un establo ventilado mecánicamente. En este caso, el modelo ADMS predijo concentraciones significativamente menores que los otros modelos. Una explicación de estas diferencias podríamos encontrarla en la interacción de diferentes “penachos” y “capas límite” durante el proceso de parametrización. Los cuatro modelos de dispersión fueron empleados para dos casos reales de dispersión de NH3: una granja de cerdos en Falster (Dinamarca) y otra en Carolina del Norte (EEUU). Las concentraciones medias anuales estimadas por los modelos fueron similares para el caso americano (emisión de granjas ventiladas de forma natural y balsa de purines). La comparación de las predicciones de los modelos con concentraciones medias anuales medidas in situ, así como la aplicación de los criterios establecidos para la aceptación estadística de los modelos, permitió concluir que los cuatro modelos se comportaron aceptablemente para este escenario. No ocurrió lo mismo en el caso danés (nave ventilada mecánicamente), en donde el modelo LADD no dio buenos resultados debido a la ausencia de procesos de “sobreelevacion de penacho” (plume-rise). Los modelos de dispersión dan a menudo pobres resultados en condiciones de baja velocidad de viento debido a que la teoría de dispersión en la que se basan no es aplicable en estas condiciones. En situaciones de frecuente descenso en la velocidad del viento, la actual guía de modelización propone usar un modelo que sea eficaz bajo dichas condiciones, máxime cuando se realice una valoración que tenga como objeto establecer una política de regularización. Esto puede no ser siempre posible debido a datos meteorológicos insuficientes, en cuyo caso la única opción sería utilizar un modelo más común, como la versión avanzada de los modelos Gausianos ADMS o AERMOD. Con el objetivo de evaluar la idoneidad de estos modelos para condiciones de bajas velocidades de viento, ambos modelos fueron utilizados en un caso con condiciones Mediterráneas. Lo que supone sucesivos periodos de baja velocidad del viento. El estudio se centró en la dispersión de NH3 procedente de una granja de cerdos en Segovia (España central). Para ello la concentración de NH3 media mensual fue medida en 21 localizaciones en torno a la granja. Se realizaron también medidas de concentración de alta resolución en una única localización durante una campaña de una semana. En este caso, se evaluaron dos estrategias para mejorar la respuesta del modelo ante bajas velocidades del viento. La primera se basó en “no zero wind” (NZW), que sustituyó periodos de calma con el mínimo límite de velocidad del viento y “accumulated calm emissions” (ACE), que forzaban al modelo a calcular las emisiones totales en un periodo de calma y la siguiente hora de no-calma. Debido a las importantes incertidumbres en los datos de entrada del modelo (inputs) (tasa de emisión de NH3, velocidad de salida de la fuente, parámetros de la capa límite, etc.), se utilizó el mismo caso para evaluar la incertidumbre en la predicción del modelo y valorar como dicha incertidumbre puede ser considerada en evaluaciones del modelo. Un modelo dinámico de emisión, modificado para el caso de clima Mediterráneo, fue empleado para estimar la variabilidad temporal en las emisiones de NH3. Así mismo, se realizó una comparativa utilizando las emisiones dinámicas y la tasa constante de emisión. La incertidumbre predicha asociada a la incertidumbre de los inputs fue de 67-98% del valor medio para el modelo ADMS y entre 53-83% del valor medio para AERMOD. La mayoría de esta incertidumbre se debió a la incertidumbre del ratio de emisión en la fuente (50%), seguida por la de las condiciones meteorológicas (10-20%) y aquella asociada a las velocidades de salida (5-10%). El modelo AERMOD predijo mayores concentraciones que ADMS y existieron más simulaciones que alcanzaron los criterios de aceptabilidad cuando se compararon las predicciones con las concentraciones medias anuales medidas. Sin embargo, las predicciones del modelo ADMS se correlacionaron espacialmente mejor con las mediciones. El uso de valores dinámicos de emisión estimados mejoró el comportamiento de ADMS, haciendo empeorar el de AERMOD. La aplicación de estrategias destinadas a mejorar el comportamiento de este último tuvo efectos contradictorios similares. Con el objeto de comparar distintas técnicas de modelización inversa, varios modelos (ADMS, LADD y WindTrax) fueron empleados para un caso no agrícola, una colonia de pingüinos en la Antártida. Este caso fue empleado para el estudio debido a que suponía la oportunidad de obtener el primer factor de emisión experimental para una colonia de pingüinos antárticos. Además las condiciones eran propicias desde el punto de vista de la casi total ausencia de concentraciones ambiente (background). Tras el trabajo de modelización existió una concordancia suficiente entre las estimaciones obtenidas por los tres modelos. De este modo se pudo definir un factor de emisión de para la colonia de 1.23 g NH3 por pareja criadora por día (con un rango de incertidumbre de 0.8-2.54 g NH3 por pareja criadora por día). Posteriores aplicaciones de técnicas de modelización inversa para casos agrícolas mostraron también un buen compromiso estadístico entre las emisiones estimadas por los distintos modelos. Con todo ello, es posible concluir que la modelización inversa es una técnica robusta para estimar tasas de emisión de NH3. Modelos de selección (screening) permiten obtener una rápida y aproximada estimación de los impactos medioambientales, siendo una herramienta útil para evaluaciones de impactos en tanto que permite eliminar casos que presentan un riesgo potencial de daño bajo. De esta forma, lo recursos del modelo pueden Resumen (Castellano) destinarse a casos en donde la posibilidad de daño es mayor. El modelo de Cálculo Simple de los Límites de Impacto de Amoniaco (SCAIL) se desarrolló para obtener una estimación de la concentración media de NH3 y de la tasa de deposición seca asociadas a una fuente agrícola. Está técnica de selección, basada en el modelo LADD, fue evaluada y calibrada con diferentes bases de datos y, finalmente, validada utilizando medidas independientes de concentraciones realizadas cerca de las fuentes. En general SCAIL dio buenos resultados de acuerdo a los criterios estadísticos establecidos. Este trabajo ha permitido definir situaciones en las que las concentraciones predichas por modelos de dispersión son similares, frente a otras en las que las predicciones difieren notablemente entre modelos. Algunos modelos nos están diseñados para simular determinados escenarios en tanto que no incluyen procesos relevantes o están más allá de los límites de su aplicabilidad. Un ejemplo es el modelo LADD que no es aplicable en fuentes con velocidad de salida significativa debido a que no incluye una parametrización de sobreelevacion del penacho. La evaluación de un esquema simple combinando la sobreelevacion del penacho y una turbulencia aumentada en la fuente mejoró el comportamiento del modelo. Sin embargo más pruebas son necesarias para avanzar en este sentido. Incluso modelos que son aplicables y que incluyen los procesos relevantes no siempre dan similares predicciones. Siendo las razones de esto aún desconocidas. Por ejemplo, AERMOD predice mayores concentraciones que ADMS para dispersión de NH3 procedente de naves de ganado ventiladas mecánicamente. Existe evidencia que sugiere que el modelo ADMS infraestima concentraciones en estas situaciones debido a un elevado límite de velocidad de viento. Por el contrario, existen evidencias de que AERMOD sobreestima concentraciones debido a sobreestimaciones a bajas Resumen (Castellano) velocidades de viento. Sin embrago, una modificación simple del pre-procesador meteorológico parece mejorar notablemente el comportamiento del modelo. Es de gran importancia que estas diferencias entre las predicciones de los modelos sean consideradas en los procesos de evaluación regulada por los organismos competentes. Esto puede ser realizado mediante la aplicación del modelo más útil para cada caso o, mejor aún, mediante modelos múltiples o híbridos. ABSTRACT Short-range atmospheric dispersion of ammonia (NH3) emitted by agricultural sources and its subsequent deposition to soil and vegetation can lead to the degradation of sensitive ecosystems and acidification of the soil. Atmospheric concentrations and dry deposition rates of NH3 are generally highest near the emission source and so environmental impacts to sensitive ecosystems are often largest at these locations. Under European legislation, several member states use short-range atmospheric dispersion models to estimate the impact of ammonia emissions on nearby designated nature conservation sites. A recent review of assessment methods for short-range impacts of NH3 recommended an intercomparison of the different models to identify whether there are notable differences to the assessment approaches used in different European countries. Based on this recommendation, this thesis compares and evaluates the atmospheric concentration predictions of several models used in these impact assessments for various real and hypothetical scenarios, including Mediterranean meteorological conditions. In addition, various inverse dispersion modelling techniques for the estimation of NH3 emissions rates are also compared and evaluated and a simple screening model to calculate the NH3 concentration and dry deposition rate at a sensitive ecosystem located close to an NH3 source was developed. The model intercomparison evaluated four atmospheric dispersion models (ADMS 4.1; AERMOD v07026; OPS-st v3.0.3 and LADD v2010) for a range of hypothetical case studies representing the atmospheric dispersion from several agricultural NH3 source types. The best agreement between the mean annual concentration predictions of the models was found for simple scenarios with area and volume sources. The agreement between the predictions of the models was worst for the scenario representing the dispersion from a mechanically ventilated livestock house, for which ADMS predicted significantly smaller concentrations than the other models. The reason for these differences appears to be due to the interaction of different plume-rise and boundary layer parameterisations. All four dispersion models were applied to two real case studies of dispersion of NH3 from pig farms in Falster (Denmark) and North Carolina (USA). The mean annual concentration predictions of the models were similar for the USA case study (emissions from naturally ventilated pig houses and a slurry lagoon). The comparison of model predictions with mean annual measured concentrations and the application of established statistical model acceptability criteria concluded that all four models performed acceptably for this case study. This was not the case for the Danish case study (mechanically ventilated pig house) for which the LADD model did not perform acceptably due to the lack of plume-rise processes in the model. Regulatory dispersion models often perform poorly in low wind speed conditions due to the model dispersion theory being inapplicable at low wind speeds. For situations with frequent low wind speed periods, current modelling guidance for regulatory assessments is to use a model that can handle these conditions in an acceptable way. This may not always be possible due to insufficient meteorological data and so the only option may be to carry out the assessment using a more common regulatory model, such as the advanced Gaussian models ADMS or AERMOD. In order to assess the suitability of these models for low wind conditions, they were applied to a Mediterranean case study that included many periods of low wind speed. The case study was the dispersion of NH3 emitted by a pig farm in Segovia, Central Spain, for which mean monthly atmospheric NH3 concentration measurements were made at 21 locations surrounding the farm as well as high-temporal-resolution concentration measurements at one location during a one-week campaign. Two strategies to improve the model performance for low wind speed conditions were tested. These were ‘no zero wind’ (NZW), which replaced calm periods with the minimum threshold wind speed of the model and ‘accumulated calm emissions’ (ACE), which forced the model to emit the total emissions during a calm period during the first subsequent non-calm hour. Due to large uncertainties in the model input data (NH3 emission rates, source exit velocities, boundary layer parameters), the case study was also used to assess model prediction uncertainty and assess how this uncertainty can be taken into account in model evaluations. A dynamic emission model modified for the Mediterranean climate was used to estimate the temporal variability in NH3 emission rates and a comparison was made between the simulations using the dynamic emissions and a constant emission rate. Prediction uncertainty due to model input uncertainty was 67-98% of the mean value for ADMS and between 53-83% of the mean value for AERMOD. Most of this uncertainty was due to source emission rate uncertainty (~50%), followed by uncertainty in the meteorological conditions (~10-20%) and uncertainty in exit velocities (~5-10%). AERMOD predicted higher concentrations than ADMS and more of the simulations met the model acceptability criteria when compared with the annual mean measured concentrations. However, the ADMS predictions were better correlated spatially with the measurements. The use of dynamic emission estimates improved the performance of ADMS but worsened the performance of AERMOD and the application of strategies to improved model performance had similar contradictory effects. In order to compare different inverse modelling techniques, several models (ADMS, LADD and WindTrax) were applied to a non-agricultural case study of a penguin colony in Antarctica. This case study was used since it gave the opportunity to provide the first experimentally-derived emission factor for an Antarctic penguin colony and also had the advantage of negligible background concentrations. There was sufficient agreement between the emission estimates obtained from the three models to define an emission factor for the penguin colony (1.23 g NH3 per breeding pair per day with an uncertainty range of 0.8-2.54 g NH3 per breeding pair per day). This emission estimate compared favourably to the value obtained using a simple micrometeorological technique (aerodynamic gradient) of 0.98 g ammonia per breeding pair per day (95% confidence interval: 0.2-2.4 g ammonia per breeding pair per day). Further application of the inverse modelling techniques for a range of agricultural case studies also demonstrated good agreement between the emission estimates. It is concluded, therefore, that inverse dispersion modelling is a robust technique for estimating NH3 emission rates. Screening models that can provide a quick and approximate estimate of environmental impacts are a useful tool for impact assessments because they can be used to filter out cases that potentially have a minimal environmental impact allowing resources to be focussed on more potentially damaging cases. The Simple Calculation of Ammonia Impact Limits (SCAIL) model was developed as a screening model to provide an estimate of the mean NH3 concentration and dry deposition rate downwind of an agricultural source. This screening tool, based on the LADD model, was evaluated and calibrated with several experimental datasets and then validated using independent concentration measurements made near sources. Overall SCAIL performed acceptably according to established statistical criteria. This work has identified situations where the concentration predictions of dispersion models are similar and other situations where the predictions are significantly different. Some models are simply not designed to simulate certain scenarios since they do not include the relevant processes or are beyond the limits of their applicability. An example is the LADD model that is not applicable to sources with significant exit velocity since the model does not include a plume-rise parameterisation. The testing of a simple scheme combining a momentum-driven plume rise and increased turbulence at the source improved model performance, but more testing is required. Even models that are applicable and include the relevant process do not always give similar predictions and the reasons for this need to be investigated. AERMOD for example predicts higher concentrations than ADMS for dispersion from mechanically ventilated livestock housing. There is evidence to suggest that ADMS underestimates concentrations in these situations due to a high wind speed threshold. Conversely, there is also evidence that AERMOD overestimates concentrations in these situations due to overestimation at low wind speeds. However, a simple modification to the meteorological pre-processor appears to improve the performance of the model. It is important that these differences between the predictions of these models are taken into account in regulatory assessments. This can be done by applying the most suitable model for the assessment in question or, better still, using multiple or hybrid models.

Modelling of chloride transport in non-saturated concrete : from microscale to macroscale

Corrosion of steel bars embedded in concrete has a great influence on structural performance and durability of reinforced concrete. Chloride penetration is considered to be a primary cause of concrete deterioration in a vast majority of structures. Therefore, modelling of chloride penetration into concrete has become an area of great interest. The present work focuses on modelling of chloride transport in concrete. The differential macroscopic equations which govern the problem were derived from the equations at the microscopic scale by comparing the porous network with a single equivalent pore whose properties are the same as the average properties of the real porous network. The resulting transport model, which accounts for diffusion, migration, advection, chloride binding and chloride precipitation, consists of three coupled differential equations. The first equation models the transport of chloride ions, while the other two model the flow of the pore water and the heat transfer. In order to calibrate the model, the material parameters to determine experimentally were identified. The differential equations were solved by means of the finite element method. The classical Galerkin method was employed for the pore solution flow and the heat transfer equations, while the streamline upwind Petrov Galerkin method was adopted for the transport equation in order to avoid spatial instabilities for advection dominated problems. The finite element codes are implemented in Matlab® . To retrieve a good understanding of the influence of each variable and parameter, a detailed sensitivity analysis of the model was carried out. In order to determine the diffusive and hygroscopic properties of the studied concretes, as well as their chloride binding capacity, an experimental analysis was performed. The model was successfully compared with experimental data obtained from an offshore oil platform located in Brazil. Moreover, apart from the main objectives, numerous results were obtained throughout this work. For instance, several diffusion coefficients and the relation between them are discussed. It is shown how the electric field set up between the ionic species depends on the gradient of the species’ concentrations. Furthermore, the capillary hysteresis effects are illustrated by a proposed model, which leads to the determination of several microstructure properties, such as the pore size distribution and the tortuosity-connectivity of the porous network. El fenómeno de corrosión del acero de refuerzo embebido en el hormigón ha tenido gran influencia en estructuras de hormigón armado, tanto en su funcionalidad estructural como en aspectos de durabilidad. La penetración de cloruros en el interior del hormigón esta considerada como el factor principal en el deterioro de la gran mayoría de estructuras. Por lo tanto, la modelización numérica de dicho fenómeno ha generado gran interés. El presente trabajo de investigación se centra en la modelización del transporte de cloruros en el interior del hormigón. Las ecuaciones diferenciales que gobiernan los fenómenos a nivel macroscópico se deducen de ecuaciones planteadas a nivel microscópico. Esto se obtiene comparando la red porosa con un poro equivalente, el cual mantiene las mismas propiedades de la red porosa real. El modelo está constituido por tres ecuaciones diferenciales acopladas que consideran el transporte de cloruros, el flujo de la solución de poro y la transferencia de calor. Con estas ecuaciones se tienen en cuenta los fenómenos de difusión, migración, advección, combinación y precipitación de cloruros. El análisis llevado a cabo en este trabajo ha definido los parámetros necesarios para calibrar el modelo. De acuerdo con ellas, se seleccionaron los ensayos experimentales a realizar. Las ecuaciones diferenciales se resolvieron mediante el método de elementos finitos. El método clásico de Galerkin se empleó para solucionar las ecuaciones de flujo de la solución de poro y de la transferencia de calor, mientras que el método streamline upwind Petrov-Galerkin se utilizó para resolver la ecuación de transporte de cloruros con la finalidad de evitar inestabilidades espaciales en problemas con advección dominante. El código de elementos finitos está implementado en Matlab® . Con el objetivo de facilitar la comprensión del grado de influencia de cada variable y parámetro, se realizó un análisis de sensibilidad detallado del modelo. Se llevó a cabo una campaña experimental sobre los hormigones estudiados, con el objeto de obtener sus propiedades difusivas, químicas e higroscópicas. El modelo se contrastó con datos experimentales obtenidos en una plataforma petrolera localizada en Brasil. Las simulaciones numéricas corroboraron los datos experimentales. Además, durante el desarrollo de la investigación se obtuvieron resultados paralelos a los planteados inicialmente. Por ejemplo, el análisis de diferentes coeficientes de difusión y la relación entre ellos. Así como también se observó que el campo eléctrico establecido entre las especies iónicas disueltas en la solución de poro depende del gradiente de concentración de las mismas. Los efectos de histéresis capilar son expresados por el modelo propuesto, el cual conduce a la determinación de una serie de propiedades microscópicas, tales como la distribución del tamaño de poro, además de la tortuosidad y conectividad de la red porosa.

Modelling the spatio-temporal pattern of primary dispersal in stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) stands in the Northern Plateau (Spain)

Natural regeneration in stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) managed forests in the Spanish Northern Plateau is not achieved successfully under current silviculture practices, constituting a main concern for forest managers. We modelled spatio-temporal features of primary dispersal to test whether (a) present low stand densities constrain natural regeneration success and (b) seed release is a climate-controlled process. The present study is based on data collected from a 6 years seed trap experiment considering different regeneration felling intensities. From a spatial perspective, we attempted alternate established kernels under different data distribution assumptions to fit a spatial model able to predict P. pinea seed rain. Due to P. pinea umbrella-like crown, models were adapted to account for crown effect through correction of distances between potential seed arrival locations and seed sources. In addition, individual tree fecundity was assessed independently from existing models, improving parameter estimation stability. Seed rain simulation enabled to calculate seed dispersal indexes for diverse silvicultural regeneration treatments. The selected spatial model of best fit (Weibull, Poisson assumption) predicted a highly clumped dispersal pattern that resulted in a proportion of gaps where no seed arrival is expected (dispersal limitation) between 0.25 and 0.30 for intermediate intensity regeneration fellings and over 0.50 for intense fellings. To describe the temporal pattern, the proportion of seeds released during monthly intervals was modelled as a function of climate variables – rainfall events – through a linear model that considered temporal autocorrelation, whereas cone opening took place over a temperature threshold. Our findings suggest the application of less intensive regeneration fellings, to be carried out after years of successful seedling establishment and, seasonally, subsequent to the main rainfall period (late fall). This schedule would avoid dispersal limitation and would allow for a complete seed release. These modifications in present silviculture practices would produce a more efficient seed shadow in managed stands.

Modelling seed germination in forest tree species through survival analysis. The Pinus pinea L. case study

The direct application of existing models for seed germination may often be inadequate in the context of ecology and forestry germination experiments. This is because basic model assumptions are violated and variables available to forest managers are rarely used. In this paper, we present a method which addresses the aforementioned shortcomings. The approach is illustrated through a case study of Pinus pinea L. Our findings will also shed light on the role of germination in the general failure of natural regeneration in managed forests of this species. The presented technique consists of a mixed regression model based on survival analysis. Climate and stand covariates were tested. Data for fitting the model were gathered from a 5-year germination experiment in a mature, managed P. pinea stand in the Northern Plateau of Spain in which two different stand densities can be found. The model predictions proved to be unbiased and highly accurate when compared with the training data. Germination in P. pinea was controlled through thermal variables at stand level. At microsite level, low densities negatively affected the probability of germination. A time-lag in the response was also detected. Overall, the proposed technique provides a reliable alternative to germination modelling in ecology/forestry studies by using accessible/ suitable variables. The P. pinea case study highlights the importance of producing unbiased predictions. In this species, the occurrence and timing of germination suggest a very different regeneration strategy from that understood by forest managers until now, which may explain the high failure rate of natural regeneration in managed stands. In addition, these findings provide valuable information for the management of P. pinea under climate-change conditions.

Land use modelling and the role of stakeholders in natural protected areas: the case of Doñana national park, Spain

Doñana, a National Park since 1969, a UNESCO site since 1994 among other protected area designations of national and international character, is a coastal dune and marshland ecosystem of outstanding importance for biodiversity and conservation at the mouth of the Guadalaquivir River, Southwest Spain. However, the Doñana natural area is seriously threatened by global change factors such as humanly induced climate change, habitat loss, overexploitation of ecosystem services, and pollution. Not all stakeholders are convinced of the benefits of the national park, and management of Doñana, its environs and watershed are the subject of intense disagreement. This interplay between natural characteristics of great value with intense human pressure makes Doñana a fascinating workshop for the study of global human environment interactions. Here, we discuss the role of stakeholders in the application of a cellular automatabased model to Doñana and its environs and present the results of a series of exercises undertaken with stakeholders to parametrize the model, something often done by researchers without stakeholder engagement. By engaging with stakeholders early in the project, feedback generated from workshops contributes to model development. Stakeholders are therefore contributors of empirical data for the model as well as independent evaluators providing local and specialist knowledge.