The direct boundary element method: 2D site effects assessment on laterally varying layered media (methodology)

The Direct Boundary Element Method (DBEM) is presented to solve the elastodynamic field equations in 2D, and a complete comprehensive implementation is given. The DBEM is a useful approach to obtain reliable numerical estimates of site effects on seismic ground motion due to irregular geological configurations, both of layering and topography. The method is based on the discretization of the classical Somigliana's elastodynamic representation equation which stems from the reciprocity theorem. This equation is given in terms of the Green's function which is the full-space harmonic steady-state fundamental solution. The formulation permits the treatment of viscoelastic media, therefore site models with intrinsic attenuation can be examined. By means of this approach, the calculation of 2D scattering of seismic waves, due to the incidence of P and SV waves on irregular topographical profiles is performed. Sites such as, canyons, mountains and valleys in irregular multilayered media are computed to test the technique. The obtained transfer functions show excellent agreement with already published results.

Modelization of low cycle fatigue damage in frames

Damage models based on the Continuum Damage Mechanics (CDM) include explicitly the coupling between damage and mechanical behavior and, therefore, are consistent with the definition of damage as a phenomenon with mechanical consequences. However, this kind of models is characterized by their complexity. Using the concept of lumped models, possible simplifications of the coupled models have been proposed in the literature to adapt them to the study of beams and frames. On the other hand, in most of these coupled models damage is associated only with the damage energy release rate which is shown to be the elastic strain energy. According to this, damage is a function of the maximum amplitude of cyclic deformation but does not depend on the number of cycles. Therefore, low cycle effects are not taking into account. From the simplified model proposed by Flórez-López, it is the purpose of this paper to present a formulation that allows to take into account the degradation produced not only by the peak values but also by the cumulative effects such as the low cycle fatigue. For it, the classical damage dissipative potential based on the concept of damage energy release rate is modified using a fatigue function in order to include cumulative effects. The fatigue function is determined through parameters such as the cumulative rotation and the total rotation and the number of cycles to failure. Those parameters can be measured or identified physically through the haracteristics of the RC. So the main advantage of the proposed model is the possibility of simulating the low cycle fatigue behavior without introducing parameters with no suitable physical meaning. The good performance of the proposed model is shown through a comparison between numerical and test results under cycling loading.

Análisis dinámico experimental de edificios esbeltos

Es conocido que la variación del comportamiento dinámico de las estructuras puede ser empleado dentro de un sistema de monitorización de su integridad estructural. Así, este estudio tiene como objetivo comprender el comportamiento dinámico de edificios esbeltos, frente a diferentes agentes ambientales como la temperatura y/o dirección y velocidad del viento. En el marco de esta investigación, se estudian dos edificios: la Torre de la ETSI (Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros) de Caminos, Canales y Puertos de la UPM (Universidad Politécnica de Madrid) y un edificio de viviendas situado en la calle de Arturo Soria de Madrid. Los datos medioambientales antes mencionados, se registraron con sendas estacionales meteorológicas situadas en las azoteas de ambos edificios. Se realiza el análisis modal operacional de ambas estructuras. Este análisis se realiza a partir de las mediciones de las aceleraciones ante excitaciones ambientales, es un análisis basado sólo en la respuesta de la estructura. Por tanto, no es necesario interrumpir el funcionamiento en servicio de la instalación, obteniendo su comportamientos en este estado. A partir de este análisis, se obtienen las frecuencias naturales, los amortiguamientos modales y las formas modales. Así, en este trabajo se ha estudiado la relación existente entre la variación en la estimación de las frecuencias naturales y la variación de los agentes ambientales (fundamentalmente la temperatura). Los ensayos dinámicos en los dos edificios mencionados anteriormente, se han realizado utilizando acelerómetros de alta sensibilidad sincronizados inalámbricamente, lo cual ha simplificado el trabajo experimental si lo comparamos con los sistemas tradicionales. Como resultado del trabajo realizado se pueden destacar los siguientes puntos: (i) se ha visto que con el equipamiento disponible se pueden realizar análisis dinámicos de edificios, (ii) se ha mejorado el conocimiento dinámico de estas estructuras, y (iii) se ha visto la importancia que pueden tener los agentes ambientales dependiendo por un lado del tipo estructura del edificio. A partir del trabajo, se podrían actualizar modelos matemáticos que sirvan para la predicción de daños en las estructuras, y por otro, se podrán eliminar los efectos de los agentes ambientales, lo cual es un punto vital si se quiere emplear los parámetros modales para el cálculo de indices de daño. La aplicación de este tipo de investigación ayudará a tener una información mayor sobre el comportamiento de las estructuras y así, en el futuro, poder realizar distintos tipos de procesos, como la formulación de modelos matemáticos que reflejen con mayor fidelidad el comportamiento real. De esta forma, la monitorización de los agentes medioambientales permitirán valorar la influencia de estas variaciones sobre la estructura pudiéndose eliminar estos efectos. Con ello, se mejora la incertidumbre en la variación de frecuencias que puede ser utilizada como un sistema de activación de alarmas frente a la detección de daños estructurales. It is known that the variation of the dynamic behavior of structures can be used within a system to monitor structural integrity. So, this study aims to understand the dynamic behavior of slender buildings, against different environmental agents such as temperature and / or wind direction and velocity. As part of this investigation, two buildings are studied: the ETSI's (Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros) main tower of Escuela de Caminos, Canales y Puertos of UPM (Universidad Politécnica de Madrid) and a residential building located in the streets Arturo Soria Madrid. The environmental data were recorded with weather stations located on the roof of both buildings. In both structures a modal operational analysis has been carried out. This analysis is performed from the measurements of the acceleration to the environmental excitation, this analysis is based only on the response of the structure. Therefore, it is not necessary to interrupt the operation of the structure, getting its behavior in this state. From this analysis, the natural frequencies, modal damping and mode shapes are obtained. So, in this work we have studied the existing relationship between the variation in the estimate of the natural frequencies and the variation of environmental agents (mainly temperature). The dynamic tests in the two buildings mentioned above, have been made using high-sensitivity accelerometers wirelessly synchronized, which has simplified the experimental work when compared to traditional systems. As a result of work performed can highlight the following points: (i) it has been found that with the available equipment can perform dynamic analysis of buildings, (ii) has improved dynamic knowledge of these structures, and, (iii) can be seen the potential importance of environmental agents depending on the type of building structure. From the work, mathematical models can be updated that serve to prediction of damage to structures, and on the other side, may eliminate the effects of environmental agents, which is a vital point if you want to use the modal parameters for calculating damage ratings. The application of this type of research will help to have more information about the behavior of structures and so, in the future, conduct various processes, as the formulation of mathematical models that reflect more accurately an actual behavior. In this way the monitoring of environmental agents will allow evaluate the influence of these variations on the structure being possible eliminate these effects. Thereby, improvement the uncertainty in the frequencies variation that can be used as an alarm activation system from detection of structural damage.

Efectos territoriales de las denominaciones de origen protegidas de aceite de oliva en España

La implementación de indicaciones geográficas, generan distintos efectos socio-económicos, tecnológicos y ambientales, no sólo a nivel de los productores directamente involucrados, sino también en el marco del sistema agroalimentario local (SIAL). Entre estos últimos, se destaca la organización colectiva de los productores y el desarrollo de una gobernanza, a partir del conjunto de actividades desarrolladas por el Consejo Regulador (CR), en torno al control de calidad y la promoción del producto. El concepto de gobernanza territorial implica llevar a cabo procesos de organización colectiva en red en los que tienen lugar procesos de coordinación multi-nivel entre los agentes, las empresas y las instituciones locales, en un contexto de asimetría en la información y de la existencia de numerosos decisores. El objetivo de esta Tesis Doctoral es realizar un aporte metodológico para el estudio de la gobernanza territorial en sistemas agroalimentarios localizados, a partir de la construcción de indicadores (de calidad, innovación, efectos económicos y prácticas ambientales) y el análisis de las redes de colaboración en materia de difusión del conocimiento e innovaciones técnicas, organizativas y comerciales en la Comarca de Sierra Mágina. Para responder el objetivo se aplica análisis de redes sociales y se construyen indicadores sintéticos para valorizar los efectos. Se realizan encuestas a la totalidad de almazaras presentes en la Comarca de Sierra Mágina, tanto a las que poseen el signo de calidad como a las que no cuentan con dicha marca territorial y entrevistas a testigos privilegiados. En las mismas se consulta sobre las actividades y proyectos que realizan en forma conjunta con otras almazaras e instituciones, así como los actores o referentes a quiénes consultan en temas relacionados con la calidad en la producción olivícola y la obtención de aceite, así como aquellos actores a quienes consultan en aspectos referidos a la Comercialización y gestión. A partir de la información recabada, se obtienen cuatro indicadores sintéticos de efectos de la implantación de una DOP en las almazaras adheridas, referidos a la adopción de innovaciones productivas y organizativas, a la calidad en producto y procesos, a las rentas de diferenciación y a las prácticas ambientales. Asimismo se generan las matrices bi-narias y valuadas para las redes de colaboración en la difusión del conocimiento y se calculan los indicadores particulares. Esto nos permite estudiar las características de las redes que se generan (tamaño, conectividad), el papel del CR en la gobernanza territorial y de otras instituciones del medio, así como identificar actores centrales y grupos en el proceso de difusión de conocimientos. Los resultados muestran que los SIAL pueden beneficiarse de la organización interprofesional y de cooperación interinstitucional a escala local que se producen tras la implantación de una DOP. Se desarrolla un proceso de articulación y un fuerte intercambio de conocimientos entre actores ligados al propio proceso de control de la calidad diferencial. Pero, junto con ello, se desarrollan actividades de formación y de promoción del patrimonio comarcal y se consolidan redes locales de innovación y colaboración mutua en distintas actividades, tanto entre actores de la propia cadena de producción, como entre éstos y las instituciones del medio. Estas actividades, junto con la presencia de un entramado institucional denso, permiten el desarrollo de una gobernanza territorial alrededor del sistema agroalimentario del aceite de oliva. ABSTRACT The implementation of geographical indications has different socio-economic, technological and environmental effects not only for the producers involved but also for the local agro food system (LAFS). Among the latter, we can highlight the collective organization of producers and the development of territorial governance through a series of tasks developed by the Regulatory Board (RB) as regards quality control and product marketing. The concept of territorial governance involves processes of collective organization in networks, where processes of multi-level coordination among agents, enterprises and local institutions take place within a context of asymmetry of information and numerous decision makers. The objective of this Doctoral Thesis is to contribute with methodological tools for the study of territorial governance in local agro food systems by constructing indicators (of quality, innovation, economic effects and environmental practices) and by analyzing networks of collaboration in terms of dissemination of technical, organizational and commercial innovation and knowledge in Comarca de Sierra Mágina. To achieve that objective, social network analysis is applied and synthetic indicators are elaborated to valorize the effects. Interviews to key actors and surveys to every oil mill in Comarca de Sierra Mágina are carried out, not only in those oil mills that host a label of quality but also in the ones that do not hold it. These interviews inquire about tasks and projects performed together with other oil mills and institutions and about actors or referents consulted in topics related to quality in olive production and oil extraction as well as in management and marketing. From all the information collected, four synthetic indicators of the effects of establishing Protected Designations of Origen (PDOs) in the associate oil mills are obtained, in terms of adoption of productive and organizational innovations, process and product quality, income differentiation and environmental practices. In the same way, binary and valorized matrixes are generated for those networks collaborating in the dissemination of knowledge and specific indicators are calculated. This allows to study networks (size, connectivity), the role of RB in territorial governance and other institutions involved and to identify main actors and groups in the process of knowledge dissemination. The results show that the LAFS can benefit from inter-professional organizations and inter- institutional cooperation at local levels by implementing PDOs. A process of articulation and strong exchange of knowledge is developed among those actors involved in controlling differential quality. But, at the same time, activities for the formation and promotion of the “comarca” patrimony are developed and local networks of innovation and mutual collaboration are built for different activities, not only among actors in the production process itself, but between these actors and local institutions as well. These tasks, together with the existence of a dense spatial entrepreneurial network, allow the development of territorial governance on the olive oil agro food system.

Environmental risk assessment in open pit blasting operations: compliance with ISO 31010:2010

All activities of an organization involve risks that should be managed. The risk management process aids decision making by taking account of uncertainty and the possibility of future events or circumstances (intended or unintended) and their effects on agreed objectives. With that idea, new ISO Standard has been drawn up. ISO 31010 has been recently issued which provides a structured process that identifies how objectives may be affected, and analyses the risk in term of consequences and their probabilities before deciding on whether further treatment is required. In this lecture, that ISO Standard has been adapted to Open Pit Blasting Operations, focusing in Environmental effects which can be managed properly. Technique used is Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), which is applied in all possible scenarios, providing to Blasting Professionals the tools to identify, analyze and manage environmental effects in blasting operations. Also this lecture can help to minimize each effect, studying each case. This paper also can be useful to Project Managers and Occupational Health and Safety Departments (OH&S) because blasting operations can be evaluated and compared one to each other to determine the risks that should be managed in different case studies. The environmental effects studied are: ground vibrations, flyrock and air overpressure (airblast). Sometimes, blasting operations are carried out near populated areas where environmental effects may impose several limitations on the use of explosives. In those cases, where these factors approach certain limits, National Standards and Regulations have to be applied.

Assessment of the effects of ozone exposure and plant competition on the reproductive ability of three therophytic clover species from Iberian pastures

Ozone (O3) phytototoxicity has been reported on a wide range of crops and wild Central European plantspecies, however no information has been provided regarding the sensitivity of plantspecies from dehesa Mediterranean therophytic grasslands in spite of their great plantspecies richness and the high O3 levels that are recorded in this area. A study was carried out in open-top chambers (OTCs) to assess the effects of O3 and competition on the reproductiveability of threecloverspecies: Trifolium cherleri, Trifolium subterraneum and Trifolium striatum. A phytometer approach was followed, therefore plants of these species were grown in mesoscosms composed of monocultures of four plants of each species, of threeplants of each species competing against a Briza maxima individual or of a single plant of each cloverspecies competing with threeB. maximaplants. Three O3 treatments were adopted: charcoal filtered air (CFA), non-filtered air (NFA) and non-filtered air supplemented with 40 nl l−1 of O3 (NFA+). The different mesocosms were exposed to the different O3 treatments for 45 days and then they remained in the open. Ozoneexposure caused reductions in the flower biomass of the threecloverspecies assessed. In the case of T. cherleri and T. subterraneum this effect was found following their exposure to the different O3 treatments during their vegetative period. An attenuation of these effects was found when the plants remained in the open. Ozone-induced detrimental effects on the seed output of T. striatum were also observed. The flower biomass of the cloverplants grown in monocultures was greater than when competing with one or threeB. maxima individuals. An increased flower biomass was found in the CFA monoculture mesocosms of T. cherleri when compared with the remaining mesocosms, once the plants were exposed in the open for 60 days. The implications of these effects on the performance of dehesa acid grasslands and for the definition of O3 critical levels is discussed

Approach to the use of indicators for the assessment of the environmental level of construction products

The European construction industry is supposed to consume the 40% of the natural European resources and to generate the 40% of the European solid waste. Conscious of the great damage being suffered by the environment because of construction activity, this work tries to provide the building actors with a new tool to improve the current situation. The tool proposed is a model for the comprehensive evaluation of construction products by determining their environmental level. In this research, the environmental level of a construction product has been defined as its quality of accomplishing the construction requirements needed by causing the minimum ecological impact in its surrounding environment. This information allows building actors to choose suitable materials for building needs and also for the environment, mainly in the project stage or on the building site, contributing to improve the relationship between buildings and environment. For the assessment of the environmental level of construction products, five indicators have been identified regarding their global environmental impact through the product life cycle: CO2 emissions provoked during their production, volume and toxicity of waste generated on the building site, durability and recycling capacity after their useful life. Therefore, the less environmental impact one construction product produces, the higher environmental level performs. The model has been tested in 30 construction products that include environmental criteria in their description. The results obtained will be discussed in this article. Furthermore, this model can lay down guidelines for the selection of ecoefficient construction products and the design of new eco-competitive and eco-committed ones

E-comparisons: A new approach to round robin tests for environmental noise assessment in transport infrastructures

The increasing importance of pollutant noise has led to the creation of many new noise testing laboratories in recent years. For this reason and due to the legal implications that noise reporting may have, it is necessary to create procedures intended to guarantee the quality of the testing and its results. For instance, the ISO/IEC standard 17025:2005 specifies general requirements for the competence of testing laboratories. In this standard, interlaboratory comparisons are one of the main measures that must be applied to guarantee the quality of laboratories when applying specific methodologies for testing. In the specific case of environmental noise, round robin tests are usually difficult to design, as it is difficult to find scenarios that can be available and controlled while the participants carry out the measurements. Monitoring and controlling the factors that can influence the measurements (source emissions, propagation, background noise…) is not usually affordable, so the most extended solution is to create very effortless scenarios, where most of the factors that can have an influence on the results are excluded (sampling, processing of results, background noise, source detection…) The new approach described in this paper only requires the organizer to make actual measurements (or prepare virtual ones). Applying and interpreting a common reference document (standard, regulation…), the participants must analyze these input data independently to provide the results, which will be compared among the participants. The measurement costs are severely reduced for the participants, there is no need to monitor the scenario conditions, and almost any relevant factor can be included in this methodology

Consequences of different meteorological scenarios in the environmental impact assessment of tritium in air

The environmental impact of systems managing large (kg) tritium amount represents a public scrutiny issue for the next coming fusion facilities as ITER and DEMO. Furthermore, potentially new dose limits imposed by international regulations (ICRP) shall impact next coming devices designs and the overall costs of fusion technology deployment. Refined environmental tritium dose impact assessment schemes are then overwhelming. Detailed assessments can be procured from the knowledge of the real boundary conditions of the primary tritium discharge phase into atmosphere (low levels) and into soils. Lagrangian dispersion models using real-time meteorological and topographic data provide a strong refinement. Advance simulation tools are being developed in this sense. The tool integrates a numerical model output records from European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) with a lagrangian atmospheric dispersion model (FLEXPART). The composite model ECMWF/FLEXTRA results can be coupled with tritium dose secondary phase pathway assessment tools. Nominal tritium discharge operational reference and selected incidental ITER-like plant systems tritium form source terms have been assumed. The realtime daily data and mesh-refined records together with lagrangian dispersion model approach provide accurate results for doses to population by inhalation or ingestion in the secondary phase

Environmental assessment of low speed policies for motor vehicle mobility in city centres

streets in local residential areas in large cities, real traffic tests for pollutant emissions and fuel consumption have been carried out in Madrid city centre. Emission concentration and car activity were simultaneously measured by a Portable Emissions Measurement System. Real life tests carried out at different times and on different days were performed with a turbo-diesel engine light vehicle equipped with an oxidizer catalyst and using different driving styles with a previously trained driver. The results show that by reducing the speed limit from 50 km h-1 to 30 km h-1, using a normal driving style, the time taken for a given trip does not increase, but fuel consumption and NOx, CO and PM emissions are clearly reduced. Therefore, the main conclusion of this work is that reducing the speed limit in some narrow streets in residential and commercial areas or in a city not only increases pedestrian safety, but also contributes to reducing the environmental impact of motor vehicles and reducing fuel consumption. In addition, there is also a reduction in the greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the combustion of the fuel.

Implementation of a module for risk of ozone impacts assessment to vegetation in the integrated assessment modelling system for the Iberian peninsula. Evaluation for wheat and holm oak

A module to estimate risks of ozone damage to vegetation has been implemented in the Integrated Assessment Modelling system for the Iberian Peninsula. It was applied to compute three different indexes for wheat and Holm oak; daylight AOT40 (cumulative ozone concentration over 40 ppb), cumulative ozone exposure index according to the Directive 2008/50/EC (AOT40-D) and PODY (Phytotoxic Ozone Dose over a given threshold of Y nmol m−2 s−1). The use of these indexes led to remarkable differences in spatial patterns of relative ozone risks on vegetation. Ozone critical levels were exceeded in most of the modelling domain and soil moisture content was found to have a significant impact on the results. According to the outputs of the model, daylight AOT40 constitutes a more conservative index than the AOT40-D. Additionally, flux-based estimations indicate high risk areas in Portugal for both wheat and Holm oak that are not identified by AOT-based methods.

Atmospheric modelling of tritium forms transport: review of capabilities and R&D needs for the assessment of fusion facilities environmental impact

One of the key scrutiny issues of new coming energy era would be the environmental impact of fusion facilities managing one kg of tritium. The potential change of committed dose regulatory limits together with the implementation of nuclear design principles (As Low as Reasonably achievable - ALARA -, Defense in Depth -D-i-D-) for fusion facilities could strongly impact on the cost of deployment of coming fusion technology. Accurate modeling of environmental tritium transport forms (HT, HTO) for the assessment of fusion facility dosimetric impact in Accidental case appears as of major interest. This paper considers different short-term releases of tritium forms (HT and HTO) to the atmosphere from a potential fusion reactor located in the Mediterranean Basin. This work models in detail the dispersion of tritium forms and dosimetric impact of selected environmental patterns both inland and in-sea using real topography and forecast meteorological data-fields (ECMWF/FLEXPART). We explore specific values of this ratio in different levels and we examine the influence of meteorological conditions in the HTO behavior for 24 hours. For this purpose we have used a tool which consists on a coupled Lagrangian ECMWF/FLEXPART model useful to follow real time releases of tritium at 10, 30 and 60 meters together with hourly observations of wind (and in some cases precipitations) to provide a short-range approximation of tritium cloud behavior. We have assessed inhalation doses. And also HTO/HT ratios in a representative set of cases during winter 2010 and spring 2011 for the 3 air levels.

Heterogeneity of atmosfpheric ammonia at the landscape scale and consequences for environmental impact assessment.

We examined the consequences of the spatial heterogeneity of atmospheric ammonia (NH3) by measuring and modelling NH3 concentrations and deposition at 25 m grid resolution for a rural landscape containing intensive poultry farming, agricultural grassland, woodland and moorland. The emission pattern gave rise to a high spatial variability of modelled mean annual NH3 concentrations and dry deposition. Largest impacts were predicted for woodland patches located within the agricultural area, while larger moorland areas were at low risk, due to atmospheric dispersion, prevailing wind direction and low NH3 background. These high resolution spatial details are lost in national scale estimates at 1 km resolution due to less detailed emission input maps. The results demonstrate how the spatial arrangement of sources and sinks is critical to defining the NH3 risk to semi-natural ecosystems. These spatial relationships provide the foundation for local spatial planning approaches to reduce environmental impacts of atmospheric NH3.

Assessing urban mobility through participatory scenario building and combined utility-regret assessment

La planificación de la movilidad sostenible urbana es una tarea compleja que implica un alto grado de incertidumbre debido al horizonte de planificación a largo plazo, la amplia gama de paquetes de políticas posibles, la necesidad de una aplicación efectiva y eficiente, la gran escala geográfica, la necesidad de considerar objetivos económicos, sociales y ambientales, y la respuesta del viajero a los diferentes cursos de acción y su aceptabilidad política (Shiftan et al., 2003). Además, con las tendencias inevitables en motorización y urbanización, la demanda de terrenos y recursos de movilidad en las ciudades está aumentando dramáticamente. Como consecuencia de ello, los problemas de congestión de tráfico, deterioro ambiental, contaminación del aire, consumo de energía, desigualdades en la comunidad, etc. se hacen más y más críticos para la sociedad. Esta situación no es estable a largo plazo. Para enfrentarse a estos desafíos y conseguir un desarrollo sostenible, es necesario considerar una estrategia de planificación urbana a largo plazo, que aborde las necesarias implicaciones potencialmente importantes. Esta tesis contribuye a las herramientas de evaluación a largo plazo de la movilidad urbana estableciendo una metodología innovadora para el análisis y optimización de dos tipos de medidas de gestión de la demanda del transporte (TDM). La metodología nueva realizado se basa en la flexibilización de la toma de decisiones basadas en utilidad, integrando diversos mecanismos de decisión contrariedad‐anticipada y combinados utilidad‐contrariedad en un marco integral de planificación del transporte. La metodología propuesta incluye dos aspectos principales: 1) La construcción de escenarios con una o varias medidas TDM usando el método de encuesta que incorpora la teoría “regret”. La construcción de escenarios para este trabajo se hace para considerar específicamente la implementación de cada medida TDM en el marco temporal y marco espacial. Al final, se construyen 13 escenarios TDM en términos del más deseable, el más posible y el de menor grado de “regret” como resultado de una encuesta en dos rondas a expertos en el tema. 2) A continuación se procede al desarrollo de un marco de evaluación estratégica, basado en un Análisis Multicriterio de Toma de Decisiones (Multicriteria Decision Analysis, MCDA) y en un modelo “regret”. Este marco de evaluación se utiliza para comparar la contribución de los distintos escenarios TDM a la movilidad sostenible y para determinar el mejor escenario utilizando no sólo el valor objetivo de utilidad objetivo obtenido en el análisis orientado a utilidad MCDA, sino también el valor de “regret” que se calcula por medio del modelo “regret” MCDA. La función objetivo del MCDA se integra en un modelo de interacción de uso del suelo y transporte que se usa para optimizar y evaluar los impactos a largo plazo de los escenarios TDM previamente construidos. Un modelo de “regret”, llamado “referencedependent regret model (RDRM)” (modelo de contrariedad dependiente de referencias), se ha adaptado para analizar la contribución de cada escenario TDM desde un punto de vista subjetivo. La validación de la metodología se realiza mediante su aplicación a un caso de estudio en la provincia de Madrid. La metodología propuesta define pues un procedimiento técnico detallado para la evaluación de los impactos estratégicos de la aplicación de medidas de gestión de la demanda en el transporte, que se considera que constituye una herramienta de planificación útil, transparente y flexible, tanto para los planificadores como para los responsables de la gestión del transporte. Planning sustainable urban mobility is a complex task involving a high degree of uncertainty due to the long‐term planning horizon, the wide spectrum of potential policy packages, the need for effective and efficient implementation, the large geographical scale, the necessity to consider economic, social, and environmental goals, and the traveller’s response to the various action courses and their political acceptability (Shiftan et al., 2003). Moreover, with the inevitable trends on motorisation and urbanisation, the demand for land and mobility in cities is growing dramatically. Consequently, the problems of traffic congestion, environmental deterioration, air pollution, energy consumption, and community inequity etc., are becoming more and more critical for the society (EU, 2011). Certainly, this course is not sustainable in the long term. To address this challenge and achieve sustainable development, a long‐term perspective strategic urban plan, with its potentially important implications, should be established. This thesis contributes on assessing long‐term urban mobility by establishing an innovative methodology for optimizing and evaluating two types of transport demand management measures (TDM). The new methodology aims at relaxing the utility‐based decision‐making assumption by embedding anticipated‐regret and combined utilityregret decision mechanisms in an integrated transport planning framework. The proposed methodology includes two major aspects: 1) Construction of policy scenarios within a single measure or combined TDM policy‐packages using the survey method incorporating the regret theory. The purpose of building the TDM scenarios in this work is to address the specific implementation in terms of time frame and geographic scale for each TDM measure. Finally, 13 TDM scenarios are built in terms of the most desirable, the most expected and the least regret choice by means of the two‐round Delphi based survey. 2) Development of the combined utility‐regret analysis framework based on multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). This assessment framework is used to compare the contribution of the TDM scenario towards sustainable mobility and to determine the best scenario considering not only the objective utility value obtained from the utilitybased MCDA, but also a regret value that is calculated via a regret‐based MCDA. The objective function of the utility‐based MCDA is integrated in a land use and transport interaction model and is used for optimizing and assessing the long term impacts of the constructed TDM scenarios. A regret based model, called referente dependent regret model (RDRM) is adapted to analyse the contribution of each TDM scenario in terms of a subjective point of view. The suggested methodology is implemented and validated in the case of Madrid. It defines a comprehensive technical procedure for assessing strategic effects of transport demand management measures, which can be useful, transparent and flexible planning tool both for planners and decision‐makers.

Integrated assessment of policy interventions for promoting sustainable irrigation in semi-arid environments: A hydro-economic modeling approach

Sustaining irrigated agriculture to meet food production needs while maintaining aquatic ecosystems is at the heart of many policy debates in various parts of the world, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. Researchers and practitioners are increasingly calling for integrated approaches, and policy-makers are progressively supporting the inclusion of ecological and social aspects in water management programs. This paper contributes to this policy debate by providing an integrated economic-hydrologic modeling framework that captures the socio-economic and environmental effects of various policy initiatives and climate variability. This modeling integration includes a risk-based economic optimization model and a hydrologic water management simulation model that have been specified for the Middle Guadiana basin, a vulnerable drought-prone agro-ecological area with highly regulated river systems in southwest Spain. Namely, two key water policy interventions were investigated: the implementation of minimum environmental flows (supported by the European Water Framework Directive, EU WFD), and a reduction in the legal amount of water delivered for irrigation (planned measure included in the new Guadiana River Basin Management Plan, GRBMP, still under discussion). Results indicate that current patterns of excessive water use for irrigation in the basin may put environmental flow demands at risk, jeopardizing the WFD s goal of restoring the ?good ecological status? of water bodies by 2015. Conflicts between environmental and agricultural water uses will be stressed during prolonged dry episodes, and particularly in summer low-flow periods, when there is an important increase of crop irrigation water requirements. Securing minimum stream flows would entail a substantial reduction in irrigation water use for rice cultivation, which might affect the profitability and economic viability of small rice-growing farms located upstream in the river. The new GRBMP could contribute to balance competing water demands in the basin and to increase economic water productivity, but might not be sufficient to ensure the provision of environmental flows as required by the WFD. A thoroughly revision of the basin s water use concession system for irrigation seems to be needed in order to bring the GRBMP in line with the WFD objectives. Furthermore, the study illustrates that social, economic, institutional, and technological factors, in addition to bio-physical conditions, are important issues to be considered for designing and developing water management strategies. The research initiative presented in this paper demonstrates that hydro-economic models can explicitly integrate all these issues, constituting a valuable tool that could assist policy makers for implementing sustainable irrigation policies.