45 resultados para Costs-consequences analysis

em Universidad Politécnica de Madrid


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In the EU context extraction of shale and oil gas by hydraulic fracturing (fracking) differs from country to country in terms of legislation and implementation. While fossil fuel extraction using this technology is currently taking place in the UK, Germany and France have adopted respective moratoria. In between is the Spanish case, where hydrocarbon extraction projects through fracking have to undergo mandatory and routine environmental assessment in accordance with the last changes to environmental regulations. Nowadays Spain is at the crossroad with respect to the future of this technology. We presume a social conflictt in our country since the position and strategy of the involved and confronted social actors -national, regional and local authorities, energy companies, scientists, NGO and other social organization- are going to play key and likely divergent roles in its industrial implementation and public acceptance. In order to improve knowledge on how to address these controverted situations from the own engineering context, the affiliated units from the Higher Technical School of Mines and Energy Engineering at UPM have been working on a transversal program to teach values and ethics. Over the past seven years, this pioneering experience has shown the usefulness of applying a consequentialist ethics, based on a case-by-case approach and costs-benefits analysis both for action and inaction. As a result of this initiative a theoretical concept has arisen and crystallized in this field: it is named Inter-ethics. This theoretical perspective can be very helpful in complex situations, with multi-stakeholders and plurality of interests, when ethical management requires the interaction between the respective ethics of each group; professional ethics of a single group is not enough. Under this inter-ethics theoretical framework and applying content analysis techniques, this paper explores the articulation of the discourse in favour and against fracking technology and its underlying values as manifested in the Spanish traditional mass media and emerging social media such as Youtube. Results show that Spanish public discourse on fracking technology includes the costs-benefits analysis to communicate how natural resources from local communities may be affected by these facilities due to environmental, health and economic consequences. Furthermore, this technology is represented as a solution to the "demand of energy" according to the optimistic discourse while, from a pessimistic view, fracking is often framed as a source "environmental problems" and even natural disasters as possible earthquakes. In this latter case, this negative representation could have been influenced by the closure of a macro project to store injected natural gas in the Mediterranean Sea using the old facilities of an oil exploitation in Amposta (Proyecto Cástor). The closure of this project was due to the occurrence of earthquakes whose intensity was higher than the originally expected by the experts in the assessment stage of the project.

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Transportation modes produce many external costs such as congestion, accidents, and environmental impacts (pollution, noise and so on). From the microeconomic theory it is well known that in order to maximize social welfare, transportation modes should internalize the marginal costs they produce. Allocative efficiency is achieved when all transportation modes are priced at their social marginal cost. The objective of this research is to evaluate to what extent different passenger transport modes internalize their social marginal costs. This analysis is important since it affects the competitiveness of the different transport modes for a given OD pair. The case study analyzed is the corridor Madrid-Barcelona in Spain and the different transport modes have been considered (cars, buses, high-speed train and air). The research calculates the marginal social cost per user for each transportation mode, and it compares it with the average fare—allowing for the effect of discriminatory taxes—currently paid by the users. The external costs are calculated according to the guidelines established by the European Union. The gap between the marginal social cost and the price paid by users will provide the extra cost per passenger that each transport mode should have to pay for internalizing the external cost it produces. The research shows that external costs already produced by road and air transport modes are much higher than those produced by rail. However, the results show that road transport already internalizes every external costs it produces because users pay high fuel taxes. In other words, although rail transportation produces lower external costs, road transportation pays more than it should on the basis of the social marginal costs. The results of this work might be of help for Europ ean policy actions to be undertaken in the future.

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This paper provides some results on the potential to minimize environmental impacts in residential buildings life cycle, through façade design strategies, analyzing also their impact on costs from a lifecycle perspective. On one hand, it assesses the environmental damage produced by the materials of the building envelope, and on the other, the benefits they offer in terms of habitability and liveability in the use phase. The analysis includes several design parameters used both for rehabilitation of existing facades, as for new facades, trying to cover various determinants and proposing project alternatives. With this study we intended to contribute to address the energy challenges for the coming years, trying also to propose pathways for innovative solutions for the building envelope.

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Under the 12th International Conference on Building Materials and Components is inserted this communication related to the field of management of those assets that constitute the Spanish Cultural Heritage and maintenance. This work is related to the field of management of those assets that constitute the Spanish Cultural Heritage which share an artistic or historical background. The conservation and maintenance become a social demand necessary for the preservation of public values, requiring the investment of necessary resources. The legal protection involves a number of obligations and rights to ensure the conservation and heritage protection. The duty of maintenance and upkeep exceeds the useful life the property that must endure more for their cultural value for its usability. The establishment of the necessary conditions to prevent deterioration and precise in order to fulfill its social function, seeking to prolong the life of the asset, preserving their physical integrity and its ability to convey the values protected. This obligation implies a substantial financial effort to the holder of the property, either public or private entity, addressing a problem of economic sustainability. Economic exploitation, with the aim of contributing to their well-maintained, is sometimes the best way to get resources. The work will include different lines of research with the following objectives. - Establishment of processes for assessing total costs over the building life cycle (LCC), during the planning stages or maintenance budgets to determine the most advantageous operating system. - Relationship between the value of property and maintenance costs, and establishing a sensitivity analysis.

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This paper is presented in CIB: Management and Innovation Sustainable Built Environment 2011, as the study and analysis of the residential model of a rural area from the Iberian Peninsula, specifically applied to the case of the province of Cáceres, in the autonomous region of Extremadura, in Spain. To this end, from a database made up of building projects whose real costs are known, it is intended to establish the links of the different parameters studied through the corresponding functions of statistical analysis. One of the main objectives of this process is constituted by the possibility of establishing those design variables of higher economic importance, so as to keep an economic control of these parameters, generally geometrical and typological, from the very start of the project. And, in general, a higher optimization of resources in the construction of dwellings in the rural environment from their design is intended.

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The environmental impact of systems managing large (kg) tritium amount represents a public scrutiny issue for the next coming fusion facilities as ITER and DEMO. Furthermore, potentially new dose limits imposed by international regulations (ICRP) shall impact next coming devices designs and the overall costs of fusion technology deployment. Refined environmental tritium dose impact assessment schemes are then overwhelming. Detailed assessments can be procured from the knowledge of the real boundary conditions of the primary tritium discharge phase into atmosphere (low levels) and into soils. Lagrangian dispersion models using real-time meteorological and topographic data provide a strong refinement. Advance simulation tools are being developed in this sense. The tool integrates a numerical model output records from European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) with a lagrangian atmospheric dispersion model (FLEXPART). The composite model ECMWF/FLEXTRA results can be coupled with tritium dose secondary phase pathway assessment tools. Nominal tritium discharge operational reference and selected incidental ITER-like plant systems tritium form source terms have been assumed. The realtime daily data and mesh-refined records together with lagrangian dispersion model approach provide accurate results for doses to population by inhalation or ingestion in the secondary phase

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Effective static analyses have been proposed which infer bounds on the number of resolutions. These have the advantage of being independent from the platform on which the programs are executed and have been shown to be useful in a number of applications, such as granularity control in parallel execution. On the other hand, in distributed computation scenarios where platforms with different capabilities come into play, it is necessary to express costs in metrics that include the characteristics of the platform. In particular, it is specially interesting to be able to infer upper and lower bounds on actual execution times. With this objective in mind, we propose an approach which combines compile-time analysis for cost bounds with a one-time profiling of a given platform in order to determine the valúes of certain parameters for that platform. These parameters calibrate a cost model which, from then on, is able to compute statically time bound functions for procedures and to predict with a significant degree of accuracy the execution times of such procedures in that concrete platform. The approach has been implemented and integrated in the CiaoPP system.

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Predicting statically the running time of programs has many applications ranging from task scheduling in parallel execution to proving the ability of a program to meet strict time constraints. A starting point in order to attack this problem is to infer the computational complexity of such programs (or fragments thereof). This is one of the reasons why the development of static analysis techniques for inferring cost-related properties of programs (usually upper and/or lower bounds of actual costs) has received considerable attention.

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We propose an analysis for detecting procedures and goals that are deterministic (i.e. that produce at most one solution), or predicates whose clause tests are mutually exclusive (which implies that at most one of their clauses will succeed) even if they are not deterministic (because they cali other predicates that can produce more than one solution). Applications of such determinacy information include detecting programming errors, performing certain high-level program transformations for improving search efñciency, optimizing low level code generation and parallel execution, and estimating tighter upper bounds on the computational costs of goals and data sizes, which can be used for program debugging, resource consumption and granularity control, etc. We have implemented the analysis and integrated it in the CiaoPP system, which also infers automatically the mode and type information that our analysis takes as input. Experiments performed on this implementation show that the analysis is fairly accurate and efncient.

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We provide a method whereby, given mode and (upper approximation) type information, we can detect procedures and goals that can be guaranteed to not fail (i.e., to produce at least one solution or not termínate). The technique is based on an intuitively very simple notion, that of a (set of) tests "covering" the type of a set of variables. We show that the problem of determining a covering is undecidable in general, and give decidability and complexity results for the Herbrand and linear arithmetic constraint systems. We give sound algorithms for determining covering that are precise and efiicient in practice. Based on this information, we show how to identify goals and procedures that can be guaranteed to not fail at runtime. Applications of such non-failure information include programming error detection, program transiormations and parallel execution optimization, avoiding speculative parallelism and estimating lower bounds on the computational costs of goals, which can be used for granularity control. Finally, we report on an implementation of our method and show that better results are obtained than with previously proposed approaches.

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Effective static analyses have been proposed which infer bounds on the number of resolutions or reductions. These have the advantage of being independent from the platform on which the programs are executed and have been shown to be useful in a number of applications, such as granularity control in parallel execution. On the other hand, in distributed computation scenarios where platforms with different capabilities come into play, it is necessary to express costs in metrics that include the characteristics of the platform. In particular, it is specially interesting to be able to infer upper and lower bounds on actual execution times. With this objective in mind, we propose an approach which combines compile-time analysis for cost bounds with a one-time profiling of the platform in order to determine the valúes of certain parameters for a given platform. These parameters calíbrate a cost model which, from then on, is able to compute statically time bound functions for procedures and to predict with a significant degree of accuracy the execution times of such procedures in the given platform. The approach has been implemented and integrated in the CiaoPP system.

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Separating programs into modules is a well-known technique which has proven very useful in program development and maintenance. Starting by introducing a number of possible scenarios, in this paper we study different issues which appear when developing analysis and specialization techniques for modular logic programming. We discuss a number of design alternatives and their consequences for the different scenarios considered and describe where applicable the decisions made in the Ciao system analyzer and specializer. In our discussion we use the module system of Ciao Prolog. This is both for concreteness and because Ciao Prolog is a second-generation Prolog system which has been designed with global analysis and specialization in mind, and which has a strict module system. The aim of this work is not to provide a theoretical basis on modular analysis and specialization, but rather to discuss some interesting practical issues.

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Effective static analyses have been proposed which allow inferring functions which bound the number of resolutions or reductions. These have the advantage of being independent from the platform on which the programs are executed and such bounds have been shown useful in a number of applications, such as granularity control in parallel execution. On the other hand, in certain distributed computation scenarios where different platforms come into play, with each platform having different capabilities, it is more interesting to express costs in metrics that include the characteristics of the platform. In particular, it is specially interesting to be able to infer upper and lower bounds on actual execution time. With this objective in mind, we propose a method which allows inferring upper and lower bounds on the execution times of procedures of a program in a given execution platform. The approach combines compile-time cost bounds analysis with a one-time profiling of the platform in order to determine the values of certain constants for that platform. These constants calibrate a cost model which from then on is able to compute statically time bound functions for procedures and to predict with a significant degree of accuracy the execution times of such procedures in the given platform. The approach has been implemented and integrated in the CiaoPP system.

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El hormigón es uno de los materiales de construcción más empleados en la actualidad debido a sus buenas prestaciones mecánicas, moldeabilidad y economía de obtención, entre otras ventajas. Es bien sabido que tiene una buena resistencia a compresión y una baja resistencia a tracción, por lo que se arma con barras de acero para formar el hormigón armado, material que se ha convertido por méritos propios en la solución constructiva más importante de nuestra época. A pesar de ser un material profusamente utilizado, hay aspectos del comportamiento del hormigón que todavía no son completamente conocidos, como es el caso de su respuesta ante los efectos de una explosión. Este es un campo de especial relevancia, debido a que los eventos, tanto intencionados como accidentales, en los que una estructura se ve sometida a una explosión son, por desgracia, relativamente frecuentes. La solicitación de una estructura ante una explosión se produce por el impacto sobre la misma de la onda de presión generada en la detonación. La aplicación de esta carga sobre la estructura es muy rápida y de muy corta duración. Este tipo de acciones se denominan cargas impulsivas, y pueden ser hasta cuatro órdenes de magnitud más rápidas que las cargas dinámicas impuestas por un terremoto. En consecuencia, no es de extrañar que sus efectos sobre las estructuras y sus materiales sean muy distintos que las que producen las cargas habitualmente consideradas en ingeniería. En la presente tesis doctoral se profundiza en el conocimiento del comportamiento material del hormigón sometido a explosiones. Para ello, es crucial contar con resultados experimentales de estructuras de hormigón sometidas a explosiones. Este tipo de resultados es difícil de encontrar en la literatura científica, ya que estos ensayos han sido tradicionalmente llevados a cabo en el ámbito militar y los resultados obtenidos no son de dominio público. Por otra parte, en las campañas experimentales con explosiones llevadas a cabo por instituciones civiles el elevado coste de acceso a explosivos y a campos de prueba adecuados no permite la realización de ensayos con un elevado número de muestras. Por este motivo, la dispersión experimental no es habitualmente controlada. Sin embargo, en elementos de hormigón armado sometidos a explosiones, la dispersión experimental es muy acusada, en primer lugar, por la propia heterogeneidad del hormigón, y en segundo, por la dificultad inherente a la realización de ensayos con explosiones, por motivos tales como dificultades en las condiciones de contorno, variabilidad del explosivo, o incluso cambios en las condiciones atmosféricas. Para paliar estos inconvenientes, en esta tesis doctoral se ha diseñado un novedoso dispositivo que permite ensayar hasta cuatro losas de hormigón bajo la misma detonación, lo que además de proporcionar un número de muestras estadísticamente representativo, supone un importante ahorro de costes. Con este dispositivo se han ensayado 28 losas de hormigón, tanto armadas como en masa, de dos dosificaciones distintas. Pero además de contar con datos experimentales, también es importante disponer de herramientas de cálculo para el análisis y diseño de estructuras sometidas a explosiones. Aunque existen diversos métodos analíticos, hoy por hoy las técnicas de simulación numérica suponen la alternativa más avanzada y versátil para el cálculo de elementos estructurales sometidos a cargas impulsivas. Sin embargo, para obtener resultados fiables es crucial contar con modelos constitutivos de material que tengan en cuenta los parámetros que gobiernan el comportamiento para el caso de carga en estudio. En este sentido, cabe destacar que la mayoría de los modelos constitutivos desarrollados para el hormigón a altas velocidades de deformación proceden del ámbito balístico, donde dominan las grandes tensiones de compresión en el entorno local de la zona afectada por el impacto. En el caso de los elementos de hormigón sometidos a explosiones, las tensiones de compresión son mucho más moderadas, siendo las tensiones de tracción generalmente las causantes de la rotura del material. En esta tesis doctoral se analiza la validez de algunos de los modelos disponibles, confirmando que los parámetros que gobiernan el fallo de las losas de hormigón armado ante explosiones son la resistencia a tracción y su ablandamiento tras rotura. En base a los resultados anteriores se ha desarrollado un modelo constitutivo para el hormigón ante altas velocidades de deformación, que sólo tiene en cuenta la rotura por tracción. Este modelo parte del de fisura cohesiva embebida con discontinuidad fuerte, desarrollado por Planas y Sancho, que ha demostrado su capacidad en la predicción de la rotura a tracción de elementos de hormigón en masa. El modelo ha sido modificado para su implementación en el programa comercial de integración explícita LS-DYNA, utilizando elementos finitos hexaédricos e incorporando la dependencia de la velocidad de deformación para permitir su utilización en el ámbito dinámico. El modelo es estrictamente local y no requiere de remallado ni conocer previamente la trayectoria de la fisura. Este modelo constitutivo ha sido utilizado para simular dos campañas experimentales, probando la hipótesis de que el fallo de elementos de hormigón ante explosiones está gobernado por el comportamiento a tracción, siendo de especial relevancia el ablandamiento del hormigón. Concrete is nowadays one of the most widely used building materials because of its good mechanical properties, moldability and production economy, among other advantages. As it is known, it has high compressive and low tensile strengths and for this reason it is reinforced with steel bars to form reinforced concrete, a material that has become the most important constructive solution of our time. Despite being such a widely used material, there are some aspects of concrete performance that are not yet fully understood, as it is the case of its response to the effects of an explosion. This is a topic of particular relevance because the events, both intentional and accidental, in which a structure is subjected to an explosion are, unfortunately, relatively common. The loading of a structure due to an explosive event occurs due to the impact of the pressure shock wave generated in the detonation. The application of this load on the structure is very fast and of very short duration. Such actions are called impulsive loads, and can be up to four orders of magnitude faster than the dynamic loads imposed by an earthquake. Consequently, it is not surprising that their effects on structures and materials are very different than those that cause the loads usually considered in engineering. This thesis broadens the knowledge about the material behavior of concrete subjected to explosions. To that end, it is crucial to have experimental results of concrete structures subjected to explosions. These types of results are difficult to find in the scientific literature, as these tests have traditionally been carried out by armies of different countries and the results obtained are classified. Moreover, in experimental campaigns with explosives conducted by civil institutions the high cost of accessing explosives and the lack of proper test fields does not allow for the testing of a large number of samples. For this reason, the experimental scatter is usually not controlled. However, in reinforced concrete elements subjected to explosions the experimental dispersion is very pronounced. First, due to the heterogeneity of concrete, and secondly, because of the difficulty inherent to testing with explosions, for reasons such as difficulties in the boundary conditions, variability of the explosive, or even atmospheric changes. To overcome these drawbacks, in this thesis we have designed a novel device that allows for testing up to four concrete slabs under the same detonation, which apart from providing a statistically representative number of samples, represents a significant saving in costs. A number of 28 slabs were tested using this device. The slabs were both reinforced and plain concrete, and two different concrete mixes were used. Besides having experimental data, it is also important to have computational tools for the analysis and design of structures subjected to explosions. Despite the existence of several analytical methods, numerical simulation techniques nowadays represent the most advanced and versatile alternative for the assessment of structural elements subjected to impulsive loading. However, to obtain reliable results it is crucial to have material constitutive models that take into account the parameters that govern the behavior for the load case under study. In this regard it is noteworthy that most of the developed constitutive models for concrete at high strain rates arise from the ballistic field, dominated by large compressive stresses in the local environment of the area affected by the impact. In the case of concrete elements subjected to an explosion, the compressive stresses are much more moderate, while tensile stresses usually cause material failure. This thesis discusses the validity of some of the available models, confirming that the parameters governing the failure of reinforced concrete slabs subjected to blast are the tensile strength and softening behaviour after failure. Based on these results we have developed a constitutive model for concrete at high strain rates, which only takes into account the ultimate tensile strength. This model is based on the embedded Cohesive Crack Model with Strong Discontinuity Approach developed by Planas and Sancho, which has proved its ability in predicting the tensile fracture of plain concrete elements. The model has been modified for its implementation in the commercial explicit integration program LS-DYNA, using hexahedral finite elements and incorporating the dependence of the strain rate, to allow for its use in dynamic domain. The model is strictly local and does not require remeshing nor prior knowledge of the crack path. This constitutive model has been used to simulate two experimental campaigns, confirming the hypothesis that the failure of concrete elements subjected to explosions is governed by their tensile response, being of particular relevance the softening behavior of concrete.

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The European energy sector is undergoing a major transformation and is facing a series of difficult challenges. These include a high and increasing dependence on external energy resources; dramatically reduce the need for the emissions of greenhouse gases to meet environmental objectives and the difficulties related to the promotion of energy market effectively integrated and competitive. Some of the policies associated with the various objectives are sometimes in conflict with each other, while in other cases are mutually reinforcing.The aim of this paper is to do a scienti?c analysis of the developments so far and the expectations for the coming period focusing on the pillars of energy policy in the EU in terms of security of supply, environment, climate change and promoting a competitive and integrated market. The use of renewable energy sources is seen as a key element of European energy policy and should help to: reduce dependence on fuel from non-member countries; reduce emissions from carbon-based energy sources, and; decouple energy costs from oil prices.