Impacts of projected maximum temperature extremes for C21 by an ensemble of regional climate models on cereal cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula

Crops growing in the Iberian Peninsula may be subjected to damagingly high temperatures during the sensitive development periods of flowering and grain filling. Such episodes are considered important hazards and farmers may take insurance to offset their impact. Increases in value and frequency of maximum temperature have been observed in the Iberian Peninsula during the 20th century, and studies on climate change indicate the possibility of further increase by the end of the 21st century. Here, impacts of current and future high temperatures on cereal cropping systems of the Iberian Peninsula are evaluated, focusing on vulnerable development periods of winter and summer crops. Climate change scenarios obtained from an ensemble of ten Regional Climate Models (multimodel ensemble) combined with crop simulation models were used for this purpose and related uncertainty was estimated. Results reveal that higher extremes of maximum temperature represent a threat to summer-grown but not to winter-grown crops in the Iberian Peninsula. The study highlights the different vulnerability of crops in the two growing seasons and the need to account for changes in extreme temperatures in developing adaptations in cereal cropping systems. Finally, this work contributes to clarifying the causes of high-uncertainty impact projections from previous studies.

Ensemble transcript interaction networks: A case study on Alzheimer's disease

Systems biology techniques are a topic of recent interest within the neurological field. Computational intelligence (CI) addresses this holistic perspective by means of consensus or ensemble techniques ultimately capable of uncovering new and relevant findings. In this paper, we propose the application of a CI approach based on ensemble Bayesian network classifiers and multivariate feature subset selection to induce probabilistic dependences that could match or unveil biological relationships. The research focuses on the analysis of high-throughput Alzheimer's disease (AD) transcript profiling. The analysis is conducted from two perspectives. First, we compare the expression profiles of hippocampus subregion entorhinal cortex (EC) samples of AD patients and controls. Second, we use the ensemble approach to study four types of samples: EC and dentate gyrus (DG) samples from both patients and controls. Results disclose transcript interaction networks with remarkable structures and genes not directly related to AD by previous studies. The ensemble is able to identify a variety of transcripts that play key roles in other neurological pathologies. Classical statistical assessment by means of non-parametric tests confirms the relevance of the majority of the transcripts. The ensemble approach pinpoints key metabolic mechanisms that could lead to new findings in the pathogenesis and development of AD

The effect of acoustic screens on orchestra musicians

La Directiva 2003/10/CE del Parlamento Europeo y del Consejo, del 6 de febrero de 2003, específica con arreglo al apartado 1 del artículo 16 de la Directiva 89/391/CEE las disposiciones mínimas de seguridad y de salud relativas a la exposición de los trabajadores a los riesgos derivados de los agentes físicos (ruido). En la industria musical, y en concreto en los músicos de orquesta, una exposición de más de ocho horas al día a un nivel de presión sonora de 80dB(A) o más es algo muy común. Esta situación puede causar a los trabajadores daños auditivos como la hiperacusia, hipoacusia, tinitus o ruptura de la membrana basilar entre otros. Esto significa que deben tomarse medidas para implementar las regulaciones de la forma más razonable posible para que la interpretación del músico, la dinámica y el concepto musical que se quiere transmitir al público se vea lo menos afectada posible. Para reducir la carga auditiva de los músicos de orquesta frente a fuertes impactos sonoros provenientes de los instrumentos vecinos, se está investigando sobre el uso de unos paneles acústicos que colocados en puntos estratégicos de la orquesta pueden llegar a reducir el impacto sonoro sobre el oído hasta 20dB. Los instrumentos de viento metal y de percusión son los responsables de la mayor emisión de presión sonora. Para proteger el oído de los músicos frente a estos impactos, se colocan los paneles en forma de barrera entre dichos instrumentos y los músicos colocados frente a ellos. De esta forma se protege el oído de los músicos más afectados. Para ver el efecto práctico que producen estos paneles en un conjunto orquestal, se realizan varias grabaciones en los ensayos y conciertos de varias orquestas. Los micrófonos se sitúan a la altura del oído y a una distancia de no más de 10cm de la oreja de varios de los músicos más afectados y de los músicos responsables de la fuerte emisión sonora. De este modo se puede hacer una comparación de los niveles de presión sonora que percibe cada músico y evaluar las diferencias de nivel existentes entre ambos. Así mismo se utilizan configuraciones variables de los paneles para comparar las diferencias de presión sonora que existen entre las distintas posibilidades de colocarlos y decidir así sobre la mejor ubicación y configuración de los mismos. A continuación, una vez obtenidos las muestras de audio y los diferentes archivos de datos medidos con un analizador de audio en distintas posiciones de la orquesta, todo ello se calibra y analiza utilizando un programa desarrollado en Matlab, para evaluar el efecto de los paneles sobre la percepción auditiva de los músicos, haciendo especial hincapié en el análisis de las diferencias de nivel de presión sonora (SPL). Mediante el cálculo de la envolvente de las diferencias de nivel, se evalúa de un modo estadístico el efecto de atenuación de los paneles acústicos en los músicos de orquesta. El método está basado en la probabilidad estadística de varias muestras musicales ya que al tratarse de música tocada en directo, la dinámica y la sincronización entre los músicos varía según el momento en que se toque. Estos factores junto con el hecho de que la partitura de cada músico es diferente dificulta la comparación entre dos señales grabadas en diferentes puntos de la orquesta. Se necesita por lo tanto de varias muestras musicales para evaluar el efecto de atenuación de los paneles en las distintas configuraciones mencionadas anteriormente. El estudio completo del efecto de los paneles como entorno que influye en los músicos de orquesta cuando están sobre el escenario, tiene como objetivo la mejora de sus condiciones de trabajo. Abstract For several years, the European Union has been adopting many laws and regulations to protect and give more security to people who are exposed to some risk in their job. Being exposed to a loud sound pressure level during many hours in the job runs the risk of hearing damage. Particularly in the field of music, the ear is the most important working tool. Not taking care of the ear can cause some damage such as hearing loss, tinnitus, hyperacusis, diplacusis, etc. This could have an impact on the efficiency and satisfaction of the musicians when they are playing, which could also cause stress problems. Orchestra musicians, as many other workers in this sector, are usually exposed to a sound level of 80dB(A) or more during more than eight hours per day. It means that they must satisfy the law and their legal obligations to avoid health problems proceeding from their job. Putting into practice the new regulations is a challenge for orchestras. They must make sure that the repertoire, with its dynamic, balance and feeling, is not affected by the reduction of sound levels imposed by the law. This study tries to investigate the benefits and disadvantages of using shields as a hearing protector during rehearsals and orchestral concerts.

Simulating accepting networks of evolutionary processors with filtered connections by accepting evolutionary P systems

In this work, we propose a variant of P system based on the rewriting of string-objects by means of evolutionary rules. The membrane structure of such a P system seems to be a very natural tool for simulating the filters in accepting networks of evolutionary processors with filtered connections. We discuss an informal construction supporting this simulation. A detailed proof is to be considered in an extended version of this work.

Debonding detection of FRP strengthened concrete beams by using impedance measurements and an ensemble PSO adaptive spectral model

An impedance-based midspan debonding identification method for RC beams strengthened with FRP strips is presented in this paper using piezoelectric ceramic (PZT) sensor?actuators. To reach this purpose, firstly, a two-dimensional electromechanical impedance model is proposed to predict the electrical admittance of the PZT transducer bonded to the FRP strips of an RC beam. Considering the impedance is measured in high frequencies, a spectral element model of the bonded-PZT?FRP strengthened beam is developed. This model, in conjunction with experimental measurements of PZT transducers, is used to present an updating methodology to quantitatively detect interfacial debonding of these kinds of structures. To improve the performance and accuracy of the detection algorithm in a challenging problem such as ours, the structural health monitoring approach is solved with an ensemble process based on particle of swarm. An adaptive mesh scheme has also been developed to increase the reliability in locating the area in which debonding initiates. Predictions carried out with experimental results have showed the effectiveness and potential of the proposed method to detect prematurely at its earliest stages a critical failure mode such as that due to midspan debonding of the FRP strip.

Examining wheat yield sensitivity to temperature and precipitation changes for a large ensemble of crop models using impact response surfaces

Impact response surfaces (IRSs) depict the response of an impact variable to changes in two explanatory variables as a plotted surface. Here, IRSs of spring and winter wheat yields were constructed from a 25-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models. Twenty-one models were calibrated by different groups using a common set of calibration data, with calibrations applied independently to the same models in three cases. The sensitivity of modelled yield to changes in temperature and precipitation was tested by systematically modifying values of 1981-2010 baseline weather data to span the range of 19 changes projected for the late 21st century at three locations in Europe.

Background foreground segmentation with RGB-D Kinect data: An efficient combination of classifiers

Low cost RGB-D cameras such as the Microsoft’s Kinect or the Asus’s Xtion Pro are completely changing the computer vision world, as they are being successfully used in several applications and research areas. Depth data are particularly attractive and suitable for applications based on moving objects detection through foreground/background segmentation approaches; the RGB-D applications proposed in literature employ, in general, state of the art foreground/background segmentation techniques based on the depth information without taking into account the color information. The novel approach that we propose is based on a combination of classifiers that allows improving background subtraction accuracy with respect to state of the art algorithms by jointly considering color and depth data. In particular, the combination of classifiers is based on a weighted average that allows to adaptively modifying the support of each classifier in the ensemble by considering foreground detections in the previous frames and the depth and color edges. In this way, it is possible to reduce false detections due to critical issues that can not be tackled by the individual classifiers such as: shadows and illumination changes, color and depth camouflage, moved background objects and noisy depth measurements. Moreover, we propose, for the best of the author’s knowledge, the first publicly available RGB-D benchmark dataset with hand-labeled ground truth of several challenging scenarios to test background/foreground segmentation algorithms.

Dust effects on PV array performance: in-field observations with non-uniform patterns

This paper presents the impact of non-homogeneous deposits of dust on the performance of a PV array. The observations have been made in a 2-MW PV park in the southeast region of Spain. The results are that inhomogeneous dust leads to more significant consequences than the mere short-circuit current reduction resulting from transmittance losses. In particular, when the affected PV modules are part of a string together with other cleaned (or less dusty) ones, operation voltage losses arise. These voltage losses can be several times larger than the short-circuit ones, leading to power losses that can be much larger than what measurements suggest when the PV modules are considered separately. Significant hot-spot phenomena can also arise leading to cells exhibiting temperature differences of more than 20 degrees and thus representing a threat to the PV modules' lifetime.

Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces

This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.