The Economic Value of Residential Land in Historical Areas: An Application of the Residual Method to the Secondary Market

Land value bears significant weight in house prices in historical town centers. An essential aim for regulating the mortgage market, particularly in the financial and property crisis that countries such as Spain are undergoing, is to have at hand objective procedures for its valuation, whatever the conditions (location, construction, planning). Of all the factors contributing to house price make-up, the land is the only one whose value does not depend on acquisition cost, but rather on the location-time binomial. That is to say, the specific circumstances at that point and at the exact moment of valuation. For this reason, the most commonly applied procedure for land valuation in town centers is the use of the residual method: once the selling price of new housing in a district is known, the other necessary costs and expenses of development are deducted, including those of building and the developer’s profit. The value left is that of the land. To apply these procedures it is vital to have figures such as building costs, technical fees, tax costs, etc. But, above all, it is essential to obtain the selling price of the new housing. This is not always feasible, on account of the lack of newbuild development in this location. This shortage of information occurs in historical town cities, where urban renewal is slight due to the heritage-protection policies, and where, nevertheless there is substantial activity in the secondary market. In these circumstances, as an alternative for land valuation in consolidated urban areas, we have the adaptation of the residual method to the particular characteristics of the secondary market. To these ends, there is the proposal for the appreciation of the dwelling which follows, in a backwards direction, the application of traditional depreciation methods proposed by the various valuation manuals and guidelines. The reliability of the results obtained is analyzed by contrasting it with published figures for newly-built properties, according to different rules applied in administrative appraisals in Spain and the incidence of an eventual correction due to conservation state.

Cadena de valor de papas nativas (Solanum andigenum sp.) en la provincia de Jauja, Perú

La Asamblea General de la ONU, a solicitud del gobierno peruano, declara en el año 2008 el Año Internacional de la Papa, (AIP). Desde el año 2005, el gobierno peruano ha puesto en marcha estrategias en torno a la importancia de la papa, como la declaración del 30 de Mayo como el Día Nacional de la Papa. El año 2014 es declarado por la FAO, (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations), Año Internacional de la Agricultura Familiar, con un enfoque compartido por esta Tesis Doctoral en el apoyo a la familia campesina peruana. El gobierno peruano utiliza las cadenas de valor como una estrategia de promoción de desarrollo sostenible, que ha permitido contribuir a la inclusión social y económica de productores pobres de zonas alto andinas, como las localizadas en la mancomunidad municipal del Yacus, (MMY), provincia de Jauja, departamento de Junín. Esta estrategia, en la que el mercado incorpora a los pequeños agricultores de las zonas altas de los Andes, (que disponen de recursos económicos muy bajos), en procesos productivos rentables, implica una serie de cambios a realizar, como la transformación de los patrones de producción tradicional hacia aquellos productos o servicios que tienen demanda en el mercado, o la variación de la mentalidad del agricultor pequeño hacia una concepción empresarial de su producción. (Fabián, 2013). Por otra parte, la sostenibilidad de las cadenas de valor depende del eslabón más débil, lo que obliga a conocer la situación de todos los eslabones para poder integrar y reforzar la cadena. Se requiere un sistema de transparencia adecuado que facilite el flujo de la información entre los distintos eslabones. (Briz et al., 2012). Además, el establecimiento de la cadena de valor debe hacerse con cuidado, ya que la eficacia y supervivencia de las empresas están cada vez más ligadas a la cadena de valor a la que pertenece y a la coordinación de la misma. (Briz, 2011). En esta situación, adquiere importancia el estudio de la cadena de valor de la papa nativa, para una vez establecidas sus características, poder determinar la viabilidad o no de una cadena de valor de este producto que repercuta parte de la riqueza generada en los pequeños agricultores alto andinos, e incluso, de su extensión hasta España. Existen estudios sobre las papas nativas, realizadas por diferentes universidades de distintos países, e incluso, de diferentes continentes. Sin embargo, la mayoría de los estudios se centran en la mejora de la producción de la papa nativa. La novedad de la investigación realizada en la presente Tesis Doctoral radica en el estudio de la viabilidad de la comercialización de la papa nativa, mediante el establecimiento de una cadena de valor que se inicie en la provincia de Jauja, Perú, y finalice tanto en los mercados peruanos de las regiones de Junín y Lima, como en España. El objetivo planteado en esta investigación es la mejora de las condiciones económicas y sociales de las comunidades agrícolas de la provincia de Jauja en el Perú, así como fomentar su desarrollo tecnológico e industrial, mediante el fomento de la cadena de valor de la papa nativa y sus derivados. Se establecen como objetivos específicos la caracterización de los eslabones de la cadena de valor de la papa nativa y sus derivados en la provincia de Jauja del Perú y en España, de manera que se determine el valor agregado en los mismos; el fortalecimiento de las organizaciones de productores de papas nativas para la comercialización de sus producciones y para el fomento de la cultura empresarial; y el desarrollo de una cadena de comercialización papas nativas y sus derivados con origen en la Provincia de Jauja, Perú, y que finalice en España, con la venta al consumidor español. Para alcanzar estos objetivos la metodología utilizada es la cadena de valor agroalimentaria, utilizando como herramientas de análisis el análisis DAFO de la cadena de valor de la papa nativa. Las fuentes de información primarias utilizadas proceden en parte del proyecto de cooperación de UPM, “Mejora de la cadena de valor de la patata andina como impulso al desarrollo rural. Caso de tres Comunidades Campesinas en la Provincia de Jauja del Perú”, en el que participó el doctorando, y en parte proceden de la batería de encuestas específicamente diseñadas para los diferentes eslabones de la cadena de valor de la papa nativa. Las fuentes de información secundarias proceden de artículos académicos publicados, de artículos publicados por revistas especializadas del sector y de informes realizados por diferentes instituciones gubernamentales, tanto españolas como peruanas. Las conclusiones de la investigación son las siguientes. La creación de la mancomunidad del Yacus ha beneficiado a los pequeños agricultores. Estos consiguen mejores condiciones de venta y mejores precios para sus productos, lo que repercute en la mejora de sus condiciones de vida. Estas mejoras en las condiciones de venta de los productos se deben a su pertenencia a una cadena de valor de papa nativa que está funcionando de forma eficaz. Las empresas consideradas para constituir la cadena de valor han mostrado interés por formar parte de ella: los campesinos para obtener mejores precios por sus productos y unas mejores condiciones de venta; los distribuidores para asegurarse una calidad determinada de unas variedades fijas de papa nativa; la industria transformadora por disponer de un suministro de producto adecuado al derivado de papa nativa correspondiente, (hojuelas, tunta, etc.); las empresas exportadoras para tener suministro garantizado de los productos que ellos requieren en los volúmenes adecuados. Es una situación ventajosa para todas las empresas participantes. A pesar de trabajar con un producto tradicional, la cadena de valor de la papa nativa presenta innovación en los productos comercializados, tanto en la papa nativa fresca como en sus derivados, en los formatos de los productos, en la red de distribución, en las instituciones peruanas y en el consumidor final. Se percibe una demanda de papa nativa y de sus productos derivados en aquellos países donde existen comunidades de latinoamericanos que han emigrado de sus países de origen. España está entre los países que han acogido a un importante número de personas de origen latinoamericano. A pesar de la fuerte crisis económica sufrida por España, que ha llevado consigo la vuelta a sus países de origen de parte de su comunidad latinoamericana, el tamaño de esta población sigue siendo importante. Esta población demanda productos originarios de sus propios países, y los consumirían de forma frecuente si los precios son adecuados a su capacidad de consumo. El precio de venta de la papa nativa y sus derivados en España es de gran importancia. La importación de estos productos desde Perú hace que este eleve a niveles que le resta competitividad, en especial en la papa fresca. Se aconseja la búsqueda de empresas que puedan adaptar la producción de la papa fresca de forma local, y mantener para los derivados la exportación directa a España. Las preferencias de los consumidores peruanos y españoles en cuanto a formatos y marcas se refieren no son coincidentes. De las encuestas realizadas, se concluye que no puede seguirse la misma estrategia de marketing en ambos países, debiéndose diferenciar los formatos de los paquetes de la papa nativa y de sus derivados en España y en Perú, para así lograr llegar a los consumidores potenciales de ambos países. ABSTRACT At the request of the Peruvian government, the UN General Assembly declared the International Year of the Potato in 2008. Since 2005, the Peruvian government has implemented strategies around the importance of the potato, as the declaration of the 30th of May as the National Day of the Potato. FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) has declared 2014 as the International Year of Family Farming, with an approach shared by this Ph.D. dissertation about the Peruvian peasant family. The Peruvian government uses value chains as a strategy to promote sustainable development, which has allowed to contribute to the social and economic inclusion of poor farmers in the high Andean regions as those located in the municipal commonwealth of Yacus (MMY) province of Jauja, department of Junín. This strategy, which incorporates small farmers in the high Andean regions, (who have very low income), to the market with profitable production processes, implies a number of changes that should take place, such as changing patterns of traditional production to those products or services that are in demand in the market, or changes in the mentality of the small farmer into a concept of production business. (Fabián, 2013). Moreover, the sustainability of value chains depends on the weakest link, which demands a knowledge of the status of all the links, in order to integrate and strengthen the chain. It is required an adequate transparency to facilitate the flow of information between the various actors. (Briz et al., 2012). Furthermore, the establishment of the value chain should be done carefully, since the effectiveness and the survival of the businesses are increasingly linked to the value chain where the firm is included and to its coordination. (Briz, 2011). In this situation, it becomes important to study the value chain of the native potato, once we establish its features, to be able to determine the feasibility or not of a value chain of this product, which has an impact of the generated wealth in small farms of the high Andean regions, and even the extension of this value chain to Spain. There are studies on native potatoes, made by different universities in several countries and even in more than one continent. However, most studies focus on improving the production of native potato. The originality of the research conducted in this Ph.D. dissertation is the study of the feasibility of commercialization of native potato, by the creation of a value chain that starts in the province of Jauja, Perú, and ends both in Peruvian markets in the region of Lima, and in Spain. The main goal of this research is to improve the economic and social conditions of farming communities in the province of Jauja in Perú, while promoting its technological and industrial development, by the establishment of a value chain of the native potato and derivatives. The specific objectives of the research are the characterization of the links in the value chain of the native potato and its derivatives in the province of Jauja, (Perú) and in Spain, in order to determine the added value; the strengthening of organizations of native potato producers, to commercialize their products and the promotion of enterprise culture; and the development of a chain to market native potato and its derivatives, with its origin in the province of Jauja, (Perú), and its end in Spain, with the sale to the Spanish consumer. In order to achieve these objectives, the used methodology is the agrifood value chain, using as a tool to analysis it the SWOT analysis of the value chain of the native potato. The primary sources of information used in the research come partly from UPM cooperation project, "Improving the value chain of Andean potato as a boost to rural development. Case Three Rural Communities in the Province of Jauja, (Perú)", in which the Ph.D. student was involved, and partly from the surveys, which were specifically designed for the different links of the value chain of the native potato. The secondary sources of information come from academic articles, from articles published by magazines of the industry, and from reports of several government institutions, both Spanish and Peruvian. The conclusions of the research are as follows. The creation of the commonwealth of Yacus has benefited small farmers. They get better sales conditions and better prices for their products, which results in the improvement of their living conditions. These improvements are due to a value chain of native potato which is working effectively. All the firms invited to constitute the value chain have shown interest in being part of it: the farmers to get better prices for their products and better sale conditions; the distributors to ensure a certain quality of fixed varieties of native potato, the processing industry in order to have an adequate supply of product to the corresponding derivative of native potato (chips, “tunta”, etc.); exporting firms to have a guaranteed supply of the products that they require with the right volumes. It's a win-win situation for all participating companies. Despite being a traditional product, the value chain of the native potato presents innovation in marketed products, (both fresh native potato and its derivatives), in the formats of products, in the distribution network, in Peruvian institutions and in relation with the consumer. There is a perceived demand of native potato and its products in countries where communities of Latin Americans have settled down. Spain is among the countries that have received a significant number of people from Latin America. Despite the strong economic crisis suffered by Spain, which has lead to a return to their home countries of part of the Latin American community, the size of this population is still considerable. This population demands products from their own countries, and they frequently consume them if the prices are suitable to their standard of living. The selling price of the native potato and its derivatives in Spain is of great importance. The import of these products from Perú makes the prices rise to levels that reduce competitiveness, especially in fresh native potatoes. It is advised to look for companies which can adapt the fresh potato production in our country, and keep direct export to Spain for the derivatives products. The preferences of Peruvian and Spanish consumers in terms of formats and brands are not the same. The surveys concluded that the same marketing strategy cannot be followed in both countries. Packet formats of native potato and its derivatives should be differentiated in Spain and Perú, in order to reach the potential consumers of both countries.

Probabilistic assessment of risk from the exposure to mercury in artisanal gold mining communities in Colombia

Colombia is one the largest per capita mercury polluters as a consequence of its artisanal gold mining operations, which are steadily increasing following the rising price of this metal. Compared to gravimetric separation methods and cyanidation, the concentration of gold using Hg amalgams presents several advantages: the process is less time-consuming and minimizes gold losses, and Hg is easily transported and inexpensive relative to the selling price of gold. Very often, mercury amalgamation is carried out on site by unprotected workers. During this operation large amounts of mercury are discharged to the environment and eventually reach the fresh water bodies in the vicinity where it is subjected to methylation. Additionally, as gold is released from the amalgam by heating on open charcoal furnaces in small workshops, mercury vapors are emitted and inhaled by the artisanal smelters and the general population

Posibilidades de cultivo de nuevas especies marinas en el área mediterránea

La acuicultura, el cultivo y cría de animales y plantas acuáticas, representa en la actualidad una fuente esencial de proteína animal y vegetal altamente saludable y nutritiva, proporcionando un sistema de vida y de ingresos en todo el mundo. La acuicultura además de ser un motor para el desarrollo social y económico de las áreas costeras marinas y fluviales mundiales, supone en muchas regiones subdesarrolladas una garantía de alimento de alta calidad y es clave en la seguridad alimentaria de sus poblaciones. El desarrollo de la acuicultura se ha realizado fundamentalmente en los últimos 50 años, y ha sido sobre todo en la década de los años 80, cuando la acuicultura ha experimentado un fuerte crecimiento con tasas anuales que superan el 6%. Con el estancamiento de la producción pesquera y el incremento de la población mundial, la acuicultura se presenta como la única fuente posible de suministro de proteínas (vegetales y animales) de alta calidad, ricas en aceites omega 3 (EPA y DHA) de origen acuático. En la actualidad la producción procedente de la acuicultura supera los 95 millones de toneladas anuales, siendo ligeramente superior a los 94 millones de toneladas anuales provenientes de la pesca extractiva. De este total mundial acuícola, la producción asiática representa el 89%, mientras que la europea el 4,2% Aunque el 46% de la producción mundial acuícola se concentra únicamente en solo 10 especies, una de las principales características de la acuicultura es la gran diversidad de especies cultivadas, más de 500, realizándose su cría bajo diferentes tecnologías y sistemas productivos. El ámbito de esta tesis, es únicamente la acuicultura marina que se desarrolla en las aguas del mar mediterráneo, indistintamente de los sistemas y tecnología de producción utilizados. Los principales grupos de cultivo que se realizan en las aguas del Mediterráneo son los moluscos y los peces, siendo muy escasos los cultivos de otros grupos como crustáceos y macroalgas. La piscicultura marina mediterránea está dominada por el cultivo en jaulas flotantes de dos especies, la dorada (Sparus auratus) y la lubina (Dicentrarchus labrax). Estas dos especies y tras 30 años de experiencia de cultivo, mantienen todavía una ineficiencia productiva alta (reducida selección genética, lento crecimiento hasta talla comercial, alto factor de conversón del pienso…) y además ocupan un estrecho nicho de mercado, ya que prácticamente toda la comercialización de la dorada y lubina se realiza en fresco y sin elaborar ni transformar, a una talla media de 500 g. Para dar respuesta desde la acuicultura mediterránea al alto consumo y a la creciente demanda que en la Unión Europea existe de los productos acuícolas, y en especial los productos elaborados y transformados, es necesario de manera urgente, un aumento de la producción de las especies ya cultivadas (dorada y lubina) mediante la mejora de su eficiencia productiva, al mismo tiempo que se debe iniciar la producción industrial de nuevas especies piscícolas, mediante la diversificación de los cultivos. Para llevar a cabo esta diversificación, se hace necesario el establecimiento de una metodología clara, que asegure una selección de especies apropiadas y rentables para la industria acuícola mediterránea, cuyo cultivo sostenible debiera cumplir con los desafíos que el sector tiene. Nuevas especies que complementen y cubran las demandas actuales y futuras del mercado Europeo e Internacional de productos acuícolas. Nuevas especies con parámetros productivos eficientes, que garanticen unos costes productivos competitivos. Nuevas especies que puedan ser cultivadas utilizando como base la tecnología de producción ya existente en el sector. El objetivo de esta tesis es la definición y desarrollo de una metodología sencilla para la selección de nuevas especies piscícolas marinas para su cultivo eficiente y sostenible Y bajo la aplicación de esta metodología, la selección de un grupo de especies piscícolas para su cultivo rentable a corto y medio plazo (6-8 años) en el Mediterráneo. Para ello se ha definido y aplicado una metodología con la que se han evaluado diez especies candidatas, previamente escogidas de una serie de listas previas originadas en los distintos estudios y trabajos de diversificación realizados con anterioridad por otros equipos de investigación. Estas especies candidatas han sido: Seriola dumerili. (Seriola) , Argyrosomus regius (Corvina), Polyprion americanus (Cherna), Ephinephelus marginatus (Mero), Dentex dentex (Dentón), Pagrus pagrus (Pargo), Solea senegalensis (Lenguado del Senegal), Thunnus thynnus (Atún rojo), Mugil cephalus (Lisa), Coryphaena hippurus (Lampuga). El conjunto de estas especies ocupa un amplio y variado espectro dentro de las distintas áreas de mercado, productiva, tecnológica, y medioambiental . Y en todas ellas existe una experiencia mínima en sus diferentes fases de cultivo. En el desarrollo de la metodología de selección, en esta tesis se han definido diversos parámetros de evaluación, considerados como los más significativos y sencillos de aplicar. Los parámetros se han agrupado en tres bloques, el comercial, el productivo y el medioambiental. El Bloque de Mercado, comprende aquellos criterios que están relacionados con la comercialización de la especie. Calidad de la carne del pescado. Competencia con otras especies en el mercado. Potencial de Transformado. Precio de venta del pescado. El bloque Medioambiental incluye criterios del grado de idoneidad de la especie en la región y del grado de impacto ambiental de su cultivo. Rango de temperaturas del agua óptimo para el cultivo. Potencial impacto ambiental de su cultivo. Eslabón trófico de la especie.. El bloque Productivo, engloba los criterios y parámetros relacionados con el nivel de conocimiento y control que sobre su cultivo existen ( larvario, engorde, tecnología) Grado de control de la fase larvaria. Disponibilidad de alevines en el sector Crecimiento. Factor de conversión Aprovechamiento de la capacidad productiva instalada, Coste de inversión. Previa a la evaluación se han descrito las principales características de las especies candidatas en función del estado y experiencia actual sus cultivos. En la aplicación de estos criterios se han establecido matrices de evaluación y a cada criterio se le ha asignado un valor diferente en función de sus características y propiedades selectivas. Los resultados obtenidos mediante la aplicación de la metodología de evaluación propuesta, han señalado la seriola y la corvina como especies más recomendadas para su puesta en cultivo en el Mediterráneo a corto y medio plazo. Las otras dos especies seleccionadas han sido la lisa y la lampuga. Como conclusión final podemos señalar que el cultivo de nuevas especies es fundamentalmente para el desarrollo sostenible de la acuicultura mediterránea. Esta diversificación debe basarse en la aplicación de una metodología sencilla y práctica, que garantice una selección de especies cuyo cultivo sea rentable y abarquen nuevos segmentos de mercado. ABSTRACT Aquaculture, the cultivation and breeding of aquatic animals and plants, currently represents an essential source of highly nutritious and healthy protein that provides a way of life and income all over the world. Apart from being a social and economic driver in coastal and marine areas, it also entails a guaranteed high quality nourishment in many undeveloped areas being key to the alimentary safety of their population. Aquaculture has developed mainly in the last 50 years and experienced a high growth especially during the Eighties when the annual rates were above 6%. With fishing production stagnating and the global population increasing, aquaculture emerges as the only possible animal and vegetable protein source of aquatic origin, high in quality and omega 3 oils (EPA and DHA). Here and now, aquaculture production is over 95 million tons per year, which is slightly higher than the 94 million tons per year that come from extractive fisheries. From this aquaculture total, Asiatic production represents 89% while Europe´s is only 4.2%. Even though 46% of the global aquaculture production focuses just on 10 species, one of the main characteristics of aquaculture is the wide diversity of cultivated species –over 500– using different technologies and production systems. This PhD’s scope is only marine aquaculture in Mediterranean water, regardless of the technology or systems used. The main crop groups in the Mediterranean sea are molluscs and finfish, while crustacean and macroalgae cultivations are very limited. Mediterranean fish culture is dominated by the cultivation in floating cages of two species: Bream (Sparus auratus) and Bass (Dicentrarchus labrax). After 30 years of farming, these two species still keep a high productive inefficiency –reduced genetic selection, slow growth to marketable size, high feed conversion rate– and fill a narrow niche market as practically all bream and bass is sold fresh and whole, unprocessed and untransformed, with an average size of 500 grams. To meet the high consumption and growing demand of aquaculture products, in the European Union (especially those prepared and transformed), Mediterranean aquaculture needs to urgently increase the production of the species already under cultivation (Bass and Bream) by means of improving its productive efficiency and at the same time begin initiating industrial production of new species by diversifying the cultivation. To carry out this diversification it is necessary to establish a clear methodology that ensures the selection of adapted and profitable species for the Mediterranean aquaculture industry. The sustainable farming of these new species needs to meet the challenges this sector faces: New species that complement and meet the current and future needs of the European and International markets for aquaculture products. New species with efficient production parameters that ensure competitive production costs. New species that can be cultivated using already existing production technologies. The aim of this PhD is to define and develop a simple methodology for the selection of new marine fish species for their efficient and sustainable cultivation. And by applying this methodology, to select a group of fish species for its profitable crop in the short and medium term (6-8 years) in the Mediterranean. For this, a methodology has been defined and applied evaluating ten candidate species selected from a series of lists originated from different studies and from diversification works previously conducted by other research teams. These candidate species are: Seriola dumerili. (Greater amberjack), Argyrosomus regius (Meagre), Polyprion americanus (Wreckfish), Ephinephelus marginatus (Dusky grouper), Dentex dentex (Common dentex), Pagrus pagrus (Red porgy), Solea senegalensis (Senegal sole), Thunnus thynnus (Bluefin tuna), Mugil cephalus (Grey mullet), Coryphaena hippurus (Dolphinfish). All these species occupy a broad and varied spectrum within different productive, technological and environmental market areas. There is minimal experience in their different stages of cultivation for all of them. While developing the selection methodology several evaluation parameters have been defined in this PhD, considered the most significant and simple to apply. The parameters are grouped in three blocks: commercial, productivity and environmental. Market block comprises criteria related to the marketing of the species. Quality of the fish meatCompetition with other species in the marketTransformation potentialFish selling price Environment block includes criteria related to the degree of suitability of the species in the region and the degree of environmental impact of their cultivation. Optimal water temperature range for cultivationPotential environmental impact of their cultivationTrophic chain level. Productivity block includes criteria and parameters related to the level of knowledge and control over their cultivation (larval, ongrowing, technology) Degree of control of the larval stageAvailability of alevin in the sector GrowthFeed conversion rate. Exploitation of installed capacityInvestment cost Prior to the evaluation, the main characteristics of the candidate species have been described based on the current status and experience of their cultivations. When applying these criteria evaluation matrices have been established assigning to each criteria a different value depending on their characteristics and selective properties. The results obtained by applying the proposed assessment methodology have identified the Greater Amberjack and Meagre as the most recommended species for farming in the Mediterranean in the short and medium term. The other two selected species were the Grey Mullet and the Dolphinfish. In conclusion, the cultivation of new species is crucial for the sustainable development of Mediterranean aquaculture. This diversification has to be based on the application of a simple and practical methodology that guarantees a selection of species whose cultivation is profitable and covers new market segments.

Price Formation and Real Estate Characteristics Residential Real Estate, Lisbon - Portugal

Análisis del proceso de formación de precios en el mercado residencial de Lisboa desde el punto de vista de la eliminación de los aspectos subjetivos de la apreciación por el tasador de las características de los inmuebles

Valuation of a new entrant in an oligopolistic market, including its option to abandon: A real-life case

The purpose of this paper is to increase current empirical evidence on the relevance of real options for explaining firm investment decisions in oligopolistic markets. We study an actual investment case in the Spanish mobile telephony industry, the entrant in the market of a new operator, Yoigo. We analyze the option to abandon in order to show the relevance of the possibility of selling the company in an oligopolistic market where competitors are not allowed free entrance. The NPV (net present value) of the new entrant is calculated as a starting point. Then, based on the general approach proposed by Copeland and Antikarov (2001), a binomial tree is used to model managerial flexibility in discrete time periods, and value the option to abandon. The strike price of the option is calculated based on incremental EBITDA margins due to selling customers or merging with a competitor.

Estudio de viabilidad para instalar una planta de cogeneración

En el presente proyecto se estudia la viabilidad, tanto técnica como económica, de la instalación de una planta de cogeneración, en una industria alimentaria en Aldaya (Valencia). El diseño de la central de cogeneración se basa en la demanda energética de la fábrica, atendiendo a los requisitos necesarios para acogerse al Régimen Especial de producción de energía eléctrica establecidos en el Real Decreto 661/2007, de 25 de mayo. En cuanto a la viabilidad económica, se ha elegido la alternativa de venta de electricidad a la red a tarifa, (a un precio fijo y regulado) con el fin de asegurar los ingresos en el estudio económico y reducir la sensibilidad del proyecto a las variables del mercado. Como resultado se obtienen la reducción de los costes de energía de la fábrica, mejora de la fiabilidad de suministro, reducción de emisiones globales de CO2, y una elevada rentabilidad del proyecto. ABSTRACT The aim of this project is to study the technical and economic feasibility of a cogeneration plant in a food industry in Aldaya (Valencia). The design of the cogeneration plant is based on the energetic demand of the factory, attending to the requirements specified in the Special Regime of production of electric power established in the R.D. 661/2007. The studied alternative in terms of economic viability is selling electricity to the net by tariff, which is a fixed and regulated price in order to assure the revenue in the economic study and to reduce the project sensitivity to the market variation. The results obtained are: reduction in energy costs of the fabric, improvement of reliability in the electrical supply, reduction of global CO2 emission, and high profitability of the project.

Factors influencing metal price selection in mining feasibility studies

The mineral price assigned in mining project design is critical to determining the economic feasibility of a project. Nevertheless, although it is not difficult to find literature about market metal prices, it is much more complicated to achieve a specific methodology for calculating the value or which justifications are appropriate to include. This study presents an analysis of various methods for selecting metal prices and investigates the mechanisms and motives underlying price selections. The results describe various attitudes adopted by the designers of mining investment projects, and how the price can be determined not just by means of forecasting but also by consideration of other relevant parameters.

Analysis of the Iberian Power Forward Price Formation

The price formation of the Iberian Energy Derivatives Market-the power futures market-starting in July 2006, is assessed until November 2011, through the evolution of the difference between forward and spot prices in the delivery period (“ex-post forward risk premium”) and the comparison with the forward generation costs from natural gas (“clean spark spread”). The premium tends to be positive in all existing mechanisms (futures, Over-the-Counter and auctions for catering part of the last resort supplies). Since year 2011, the values are smaller due to regulatorily recognized prices for coal power plants. The power futures are strongly correlated with European gas prices. The spreads built with prompt contracts tend also to be positive. The biggest ones are for the month contract, followed by the quarter contract and then by the year contract. Therefore, gas fired generation companies can maximize profits trading with contracts of shorter maturity.

An Empirical Analysis of the Spanish Gas Price Structure

We can say without hesitation that in energy markets a throughout data analysis is crucial when designing sophisticated models that are able to capture most of the critical market drivers. In this study we will attempt to investigate into Spanish natural gas prices structure to improve understanding of the role they play in the determination of electricity prices and decide in the future about price modelling aspects. To further understand the potential for modelling, this study will focus on the nature and characteristics of the different gas price data available. The fact that the existing gas market in Spain does not incorporate enough liquidity of trade makes it even more critical to analyze in detail available gas price data information that in the end will provide relevant information to understand how electricity prices are affected by natural gas markets. In this sense representative Spanish gas prices are typically difficult to explore given the fact that there is not a transparent gas market yet and all the gas imported in the country is negotiated and purchased by private companies at confidential terms.

Advanced characterization of a coffee fermenting tank by multi-distributed wireless sensors: spatial interpolation and phase diagrams.

In coffee processing the fermentation stage is considered one of the critical operations by its impact on the final quality of the product. However, the level of control of the fermentation process on each farm is often not adequate; the use of sensorics for controlling coffee fermentation is not common. The objective of this work is to characterize the fermentation temperature in a fermentation tank by applying spatial interpolation and a new methodology of data analysis based on phase space diagrams of temperature data, collected by means of multi-distributed, low cost and autonomous wireless sensors. A real coffee fermentation was supervised in the Cauca region (Colombia) with a network of 24 semi-passive TurboTag RFID temperature loggers with vacuum plastic cover, submerged directly in the fermenting mass. Temporal evolution and spatial distribution of temperature is described in terms of the phase diagram areas which characterizes the cyclic behaviour of temperature and highlights the significant heterogeneity of thermal conditions at different locations in the tank where the average temperature of the fermentation was 21.2 °C, although there were temperature ranges of 4.6°C, and average spatial standard deviation of ±1.21ºC. In the upper part of the tank we found high heterogeneity of temperatures, the higher temperatures and therefore the higher fermentation rates. While at the bottom, it has been computed an area in the phase diagram practically half of the area occupied by the sensors of the upper tank, therefore this location showed higher temperature homogeneity

Electricity price forecasting accounting for renewable energies: optimal combined forecasts

Electricity price forecasting is an interesting problem for all the agents involved in electricity market operation. For instance, every profit maximisation strategy is based on the computation of accurate one-day-ahead forecasts, which is why electricity price forecasting has been a growing field of research in recent years. In addition, the increasing concern about environmental issues has led to a high penetration of renewable energies, particularly wind. In some European countries such as Spain, Germany and Denmark, renewable energy is having a deep impact on the local power markets. In this paper, we propose an optimal model from the perspective of forecasting accuracy, and it consists of a combination of several univariate and multivariate time series methods that account for the amount of energy produced with clean energies, particularly wind and hydro, which are the most relevant renewable energy sources in the Iberian Market. This market is used to illustrate the proposed methodology, as it is one of those markets in which wind power production is more relevant in terms of its percentage of the total demand, but of course our method can be applied to any other liberalised power market. As far as our contribution is concerned, first, the methodology proposed by García-Martos et al(2007 and 2012) is generalised twofold: we allow the incorporation of wind power production and hydro reservoirs, and we do not impose the restriction of using the same model for 24h. A computational experiment and a Design of Experiments (DOE) are performed for this purpose. Then, for those hours in which there are two or more models without statistically significant differences in terms of their forecasting accuracy, a combination of forecasts is proposed by weighting the best models(according to the DOE) and minimising the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The MAPE is the most popular accuracy metric for comparing electricity price forecasting models. We construct the combi nation of forecasts by solving several nonlinear optimisation problems that allow computation of the optimal weights for building the combination of forecasts. The results are obtained by a large computational experiment that entails calculating out-of-sample forecasts for every hour in every day in the period from January 2007 to Decem ber 2009. In addition, to reinforce the value of our methodology, we compare our results with those that appear in recent published works in the field. This comparison shows the superiority of our methodology in terms of forecasting accuracy.

Impact of introducing longer and heavier vehicles on regional consumer price index and Spanish road freight transport system

This paper applies an integrated modeling approach to the case of Spain; the approach is based on a random utility-based multiregional input-output model and a road transport network model for assessing the effect of introducing longer and heavier vehicles (LHVs) on the regional consumer price index (CPI) and on the transportation system. The approach strongly supports the concept that changes in transport costs derived from the LHV allowance as well as the economic structure of regions have direct and indirect effects on the economy and on the transportation system. Results show that the introduction of LHVs might reduce prices paid by consumers for a representative basket of goods and services in the regions of Spain and would also lead to a reduction in the regional CPI. In addition, the magnitude and extent of changes in the transportation system are estimated by using the commodity-based structure of the approach to identify the effect of traffic changes on traffic flows and on pollutant emissions over the whole network.

Advanced Characterisation of a Coffee Fermenting Tank by Multi-distributed Wireless Sensors: Spatial Interpolation and Phase Space Graphs

The fermentation stage is considered to be one of the critical steps in coffee processing due to its impact on the final quality of the product. The objective of this work is to characterise the temperature gradients in a fermentation tank by multi-distributed, low-cost and autonomous wireless sensors (23 semi-passive TurboTag® radio-frequency identifier (RFID) temperature loggers). Spatial interpolation in polar coordinates and an innovative methodology based on phase space diagrams are used. A real coffee fermentation process was supervised in the Cauca region (Colombia) with sensors submerged directly in the fermenting mass, leading to a 4.6 °C temperature range within the fermentation process. Spatial interpolation shows a maximum instant radial temperature gradient of 0.1 °C/cm from the centre to the perimeter of the tank and a vertical temperature gradient of 0.25 °C/cm for sensors with equal polar coordinates. The combination of spatial interpolation and phase space graphs consistently enables the identification of five local behaviours during fermentation (hot and cold spots).

Hacia una arquitectura de procesos : transformaciones disciplinares a través de la Computación en los modelos de Alexander, Negroponte y Price

La premisa inicial de la tesis examina cómo las secuelas de Segunda Guerra mundial motivaron una revisión general de la Ciencia y procuraron una nueva relación entre el hombre y su entorno. Matemáticas, Física y Biología gestaron las Ciencias de la Computación como disciplina de convergencia. En un momento de re-definición del objeto científico, una serie de arquitectos vislumbraron la oportunidad para transformar ciertas convenciones disciplinares. Mediante la incorporación de ontologías y procedimientos de cibernética y computación, trazaron un nuevo espacio arquitectónico. Legitimados por un despegue tecnológico incuestionable, desafían los límites de la profesión explorando campos abiertos a nuevos programas y acciones; amplían el dominio natural de la Arquitectura más allá del objeto(terminado) hacia el proceso(abierto). Se da inicio a la tesis describiendo los antecedentes que conducen a ese escenario de cambio. Se anotan aspectos de Teoría de Sistemas, Computación, Biología y de ciertos referentes de Arquitectura con relevancia para esa nuevo planteamiento. En esos antecedentes residen los argumentos para orientar la disciplina hacia el trabajo con procesos. La linea argumental central del texto aborda la obra de Christopher Alexander, Nicholas Negroponte y Cedric Price a través de una producción teórica y práctica transformada por la computación, y examina la contribución conceptual de cada autor. El análisis comparado de sus modelos se dispone mediante la disección de tres conceptos convergentes: Sistema, Código y Proceso. La discusión crítica se articula por una triangulación entre los autores, donde se identifican comparando por pares las coincidencias y controversias entre ellos. Sirve este procedimiento al propósito de tender un puente conceptual con el escenario arquitectónico actual estimando el impacto de sus propuestas. Se valora su contribución en la deriva del programa cerrado a la especulación , de lo formal a lo informal, de lo único a lo múltiple; del estudio de arquitectura al laboratorio de investigación. Para guiar ese recorrido por la significación de cada autor en el desarrollo digital de la disciplina, se incorporan a la escena dos predicados esenciales; expertos en computación que trabajaron de enlace entre los autores, matizando el significado de sus modelos. El trabajo de Gordon Pask y John Frazer constituye el vehículo de transmisión de los hallazgos de aquellos años, prolonga los caminos iniciados entonces, en la arquitectura de hoy y la que ya se está diseñando para mañana. ABSTRACT The initial premise of the thesis examines how the aftermath of second world war motivated a general revision of science and procure the basis of a new relation between mankind and its environment. Mathematics, Physics, and Biology gave birth to the Computer Sciences as a blend of different knowledge and procedures. In a time when the object of major sciences was being redefined, a few architects saw a promising opportunity for transforming the Architectural convention. By implementing the concepts, ontology and procedures of Cybernetics, Artificial Intelligence and Information Technology, they envisioned a new space for their discipline. In the verge of transgression three prescient architects proposed complete architectural systems through their writings and projects; New systems that challenged the profession exploring open fields through program and action, questioning the culture of conservatism; They shifted architectural endeavor from object to process. The thesis starts describing the scientific and architectural background that lead to that opportunity, annotating aspects of Systems Theory, Computing, Biology and previous Architecture form the process perspective. It then focuses on the Works of Christopher Alexander, Nicholas Negroponte and Cedric Price through their work, and examines each authors conceptual contribution. It proceeds to a critical analysis of their proposals on three key converging aspects: system, architectural encoding and process. Finally, the thesis provides a comparative discussion between the three authors, and unfolds the impact of their work in todays architectural scenario. Their contribution to shift from service to speculation, from formal to informal , from unitary to multiple; from orthodox architecture studio to open laboratories of praxis through research. In order to conclude that triangle of concepts, other contributions come into scene to provide relevant predicates and complete those models. A reference to Gordon Pask and John Frazer is then provided with particular interest in their role as link between those pioneers and todays perspective, pushing the boundaries of both what architecture was and what it could become.