Multiple proportion case-basing driven CBRE and its application in the evaluation of possible failure of firms

Case-based reasoning (CBR) is a unique tool for the evaluation of possible failure of firms (EOPFOF) for its eases of interpretation and implementation. Ensemble computing, a variation of group decision in society, provides a potential means of improving predictive performance of CBR-based EOPFOF. This research aims to integrate bagging and proportion case-basing with CBR to generate a method of proportion bagging CBR for EOPFOF. Diverse multiple case bases are first produced by multiple case-basing, in which a volume parameter is introduced to control the size of each case base. Then, the classic case retrieval algorithm is implemented to generate diverse member CBR predictors. Majority voting, the most frequently used mechanism in ensemble computing, is finally used to aggregate outputs of member CBR predictors in order to produce final prediction of the CBR ensemble. In an empirical experiment, we statistically validated the results of the CBR ensemble from multiple case bases by comparing them with those of multivariate discriminant analysis, logistic regression, classic CBR, the best member CBR predictor and bagging CBR ensemble. The results from Chinese EOPFOF prior to 3 years indicate that the new CBR ensemble, which significantly improved CBRs predictive ability, outperformed all the comparative methods.

Boundariesc@pes. Landscapes of the boundary or boundaries of the landscape? The landscape scope of the boundary

Esta comunicación parte de la base de que en nuestro tiempo la idea ambigua del límite ha llegado a ser uno de los paradigmas más complejos que podemos afrontar no sólo en arquitectura sino también en la sociedad y la cultura.

Comparative Analysis of Firms’ Participation in National and International Programmes to Support Innovation

Innovation is a process that faces several market failure situations. For this reason and for being considered one of the main drivers of economic growth, a large number of governmental and supranational policies are designed to foster technological progress. Along with these policies, there is an increasing concern with their continuous evaluation aiming at providing valuable feedback for these program?s adaptation and adequacy to the firm?s needs. The paper develops an evaluation of the influence of innovation-focused programs in firm¿s innovation and economic performance by means of a comparative analysis of the results obtained by Spanish firms that have participated in R&D national programmes and those achieved by Spanish firms participating in EUREKA international program. Findings show that the programmes were effective in achieving their objective of promoting technological innovation but, as regards the economic effects, the results were less conclusive since some differences were observed depending on the programme. The EUREKA companies displayed better behaviour, with positive differences in their returns on assets and labour productivity. The results also confirm the importance of designing more detailed and rigorous evaluation processes, taking into account the risk variable, in order to draw a more realistic picture of the impact of national and international programmes.

Mapping the firmographic mobility: a case study in a region of Madrid

Understanding the location patterns of firms within a region has proved to be an important factor to study the development of urban form. Moreover, the study of firms location patterns allows the implementation of the adequate policy strategies to increase firms location rate in certain areas, for example when practitioners are dealing with deprived zones. The aim of this paper is to map firmographic data as a function of its location over a certain period of time, and its employment weight in order to discuss which factors have a direct impact on the results and to highlight which specific areas need the adequate measures to promote employment and public transportation. As a case study, it is proposed to analyze the southwest region of Madrid. Spatial statistic methods were used for this study, which were found to be very efficient in order to evaluate which areas need special attention.

Hidrogeología e hidrodinámica del acuífero de los manantiales de Gormaz y su importancia en el caudal base del río Duero, España = Hydrogeology and hydrodynamic of the Gormaz Springs Aquifer and its importance to the base flow of the Duero River, Spain

Se cuantifican las descargas subterráneas de un acuífero a un río que lo atraviesa utilizando correlaciones estadísticas. El río Duero, España, incrementa su caudal base en varios m3/s, al atravesar unos afloramientos carbonatados mesozoicos en un pequeño tramo de su cabecera; esto es de especial importancia en época de estiaje, cuando la mayor parte del caudal base del río procede de manantiales que allí se sitúan. Dichos afloramientos corresponden a uno de los dos acuíferos calcáreos confinados, que se desarrollan en paralelo y están hidráulicamente desconectados por una capa impermeable, que forman el sistema acuífero de los manantiales de Gormaz. Este sistema se encuentra en estado de régimen natural y está apenas explotado. Se define el modelo conceptual de funcionamiento hidrogeológico, considerando el papel hidrogeológico de la falla de Gormaz, situada en la zona de descarga del sistema. Analizando información geológica antecedente y la geofísica exploratoria realizada, se obtuvo un mejor conocimiento de la geometría y los límites de los acuíferos, definiéndose un sistema acuífero con una zona de recarga en el sur, correspondiente a los afloramientos calcáreos, los cuales se confinan hacia el norte bajo el Terciario, hasta intersecar con la falla normal de Gormaz. El salto de falla genera una barrera para las formaciones permeables situadas al extremo norte (margen derecha del río Duero); a su vez, el plano de falla facilita el ascenso del agua subterránea del sistema acuífero en estudio y pone en conexión hidráulica los dos acuíferos. Se estimaron, además, los parámetros hidráulicos de los acuíferos en los alrededores de la falla. La buena correlación entre los niveles piezométricos y las descargas subterráneas al río Duero han permitido la reconstrucción del hidrograma de los manantiales de Gormaz en el periodo 1992-2006. Se calcula así que la contribución subterránea al río Duero es de 135.9 hm3/año, que supone el 18.9% de la aportación total del río. In a short stretch of its headwaters, the base flow of the River Duero increases by several m3/s as it traverses some Mesozoic carbonate outcrops. This is of special importance during the dry season, when the majority of the base flow of the river proceeds from springs in this reach. The outcrops correspond to one of two confined calcareous aquifers that developed in parallel but which are not hydraulically connected because of an impermeable layer. Together, they constitute the aquifer system of the Gormaz Springs. The system is still in its natural regime and is hardly exploited. This study defines the conceptual model of hydrogeological functioning, taking into consideration the role of the Gormaz Fault, which is situated in the discharge zone of the system. Analysis of both antecedent geological information and geophysical explorations has led to a better understanding of the geometry and boundaries of the aquifers, defining an aquifer system with a recharge zone in the south corresponding to in the calcareous outcrops. These calcareous outcrops are confined to the north below Tertiary formations, as far as their intersection with the normal fault of Gormaz. The throw of the fault forms the barrier of the permeable formations situated in the extreme north (right bank of the River Duero). In turn, the fault plane facilitates the upflow of groundwater from the aquifer system and creates hydraulic connection between the two aquifers. In addition, the study estimated the hydraulic parameters of the aquifer around the fault. The close correlation between piezometric levels and the groundwater discharges to the River Duero has enabled the reconstruction of the hydrogram of Gormaz springs over the period 1992-2006. By this means, it is calculated that the groundwater contribution to the River Duero is 135.9 hm3/year, or 18.9% of the total river inflow.

Naturaleza, ética, y arquitectura: Autenticidad y criterios éticos que integran el desarrollo de una arquitectura más sostenible = Nature, ethics and architecture: Authenticity and ethics criteria that integrate the development of a more sustainable architecture

La ecología no solamente ha puesto de manifiesto problemas ambientales, sino que ha confirmado la necesidad de una nueva armonía entre los propios seres humanos y de éstos con la naturaleza y con todos los seres que la habitan. Es necesario un nuevo contrato que determine nuestras relaciones con la Naturaleza (Serrs1), y una nueva Ética para nuestras vidas (Guattari2). La ética medioambiental nos ha dado una visión universal y supra-generacional de la gestión de la naturaleza y como consecuencia, una nueva forma de construir nuestra ‘segunda’ Naturaleza, que es la arquitectura. ¿Qué es lo esencial que esta nueva ética exige para la arquitectura? Este es un momento crucial para reconsiderar los objetivos de la arquitectura, porque lo ‘eco’ está produciendo grandes cambios. ¿Implica esta era post-ecológica una particular ética, es decir, referida a sus fines y medios? ¿Porqué, para qué, para quién, cómo debemos hacer la arquitectura de nuestro tiempo? Es momento de afrontar críticamente el discurso de la eco-arquitectura, e incluso de repensar los propios límites de la arquitectura. El desarrollo actual del conocimiento medioambiental es esencialmente técnico y utilitario, pero ¿es el reto solamente técnico?¿Es suficiente la suma de lo medioambiental-social-económico-cultural para definirla? ¿Hay claves que nos puedan dar la dimensión ética de esta aproximación técnica-empírica? ¿Sabemos lo que estamos haciendo cuando aplicamos este conocimiento? Y, sobre todo, ¿cuál es el sentido de lo que estamos haciendo? La tesis que se propone puede resumirse: De acuerdo con el actual conocimiento que tenemos de la Naturaleza, la Arquitectura de nuestro tiempo deber reconsiderar sus fines y medios, puesto que la ética medioambiental está definiendo nuevos objetivos. Para fundamentar y profundizar en esta afirmación la tesis analiza cómo son hoy día las relaciones entre Ética-Naturaleza-Arquitectura (Fig.1), lo que facilitará las claves de cuáles son los criterios éticos (en cuanto a fines y medios) que deben definir la arquitectura del tiempo de la ecología. ABSTRACT Ecology shows us not only environmental problems; it shows that we need a new balance and harmony between individuals, beings, communities and Nature. We need a new contract with Nature according to Serres576, and a new Ethics for our lives according to Guattari577. Environmental ethics have given us a universal and supra-generational vision of the management of our Nature and, as a consequence, a new way to construct our ‘second’ nature, which is architecture. What is essential for this new architecture that the new ethics demand? This is a critical moment to reconsider the object of architecture, because the ‘eco’ is making significant changes in it. Are there any specifically ethical concerns (ends and means) in the post-ecological era? Why, for what, for whom, how should we make architecture in our times? This is the time to approach the eco-architectural discourse critically and to question the current boundaries of architecture itself: Where is eco-architecture going? The current development of environmental knowledge is essentially technical and utilitarian, but it is its technical aspect the only challenge? Is the sum of environmental-social-economic aspects enough to define it? Are there any clues which can give an ethical sense to this technical-empirical approach? Do we know what we are doing when we apply this knowledge? And overall, what is the meaning of what we are doing? Exploring this subject, this thesis makes a statement: In accordance with the actual knowledge of Nature, Architecture of our time must reconsider its ends and means, since the environmental ethics is defining new objectives. To support that, the thesis analyzes what the relationships between Ethics –Nature- Architecture (Fig. 53) are like nowadays, this will provide the clues of which ethical criteria (ends and means) must architecture of an ecological era define.

Expressive power of binary relevance and chain classifiers based on Bayesian Networks for multi-label classification

Bayesian network classifiers are widely used in machine learning because they intuitively represent causal relations. Multi-label classification problems require each instance to be assigned a subset of a defined set of h labels. This problem is equivalent to finding a multi-valued decision function that predicts a vector of h binary classes. In this paper we obtain the decision boundaries of two widely used Bayesian network approaches for building multi-label classifiers: Multi-label Bayesian network classifiers built using the binary relevance method and Bayesian network chain classifiers. We extend our previous single-label results to multi-label chain classifiers, and we prove that, as expected, chain classifiers provide a more expressive model than the binary relevance method.

Numerical issues in Lagrangian tracking and topological evolution of fluid particles in wallbounded turbulent flows

The determination of the local Lagrangian evolution of the flow topology in wall-bounded turbulence, and of the Lagrangian evolution associated with entrainment across the turbulent / non-turbulent interface into a turbulent boundary layer, require accurate tracking of a fluid particle and its local velocity gradients. This paper addresses the implementation of fluid-particle tracking in both a turbulent boundary layer direct numerical simulation and in a fully developed channel flow simulation. Determination of the sub-grid particle velocity is performed using both cubic B-spline, four-point Hermite spline and higher-order Hermite spline interpolation. Both wall-bounded flows show similar oscillations in the Lagrangian tracers of both velocity and velocity gradients, corresponding to the movement of particles across the boundaries of computational cells. While these oscillation in the particle velocity are relatively small and have negligible effect on the particle trajectories for time-steps of the order of CFL = 0.1, they appear to be the cause of significant oscillations in the evolution of the invariants of the velocity gradient tensor.

A multi-level analysis of innovation diffusion: The case of solar photovoltaic systems in Germany and the disillusion of grid parity

¿Suministrarán las fuentes de energía renovables toda la energía que el mundo necesita algún día? Algunos argumentan que sí, mientras que otros dicen que no. Sin embargo, en algunas regiones del mundo, la producción de electricidad a través de fuentes de energía renovables ya está en una etapa prometedora de desarrollo en la que su costo de generación de electricidad compite con fuentes de electricidad convencionales, como por ejemplo la paridad de red. Este logro ha sido respaldado por el aumento de la eficiencia de la tecnología, la reducción de los costos de producción y, sobre todo, los años de intervenciones políticas de apoyo financiero. La difusión de los sistemas solares fotovoltaicos (PV) en Alemania es un ejemplo relevante. Alemania no sólo es el país líder en términos de capacidad instalada de sistemas fotovoltaicos (PV) en todo el mundo, sino también uno de los países pioneros donde la paridad de red se ha logrado recientemente. No obstante, podría haber una nube en el horizonte. La tasa de difusión ha comenzado a declinar en muchas regiones. Además, las empresas solares locales – que se sabe son importantes impulsores de la difusión – han comenzado a enfrentar dificultades para manejar sus negocios. Estos acontecimientos plantean algunas preguntas importantes: ¿Es ésta una disminución temporal en la difusión? ¿Los adoptantes continuarán instalando sistemas fotovoltaicos? ¿Qué pasa con los modelos de negocio de las empresas solares locales? Con base en el caso de los sistemas fotovoltaicos en Alemania a través de un análisis multinivel y dos revisiones literarias complementarias, esta tesis doctoral extiende el debate proporcionando riqueza múltiple de datos empíricos en un conocimiento de contexto limitado. El primer análisis se basa en la perspectiva del adoptante, que explora el nivel "micro" y el proceso social que subyace a la adopción de los sistemas fotovoltaicos. El segundo análisis es una perspectiva a nivel de empresa, que explora los modelos de negocio de las empresas y sus roles impulsores en la difusión de los sistemas fotovoltaicos. El tercero análisis es una perspectiva regional, la cual explora el nivel "meso", el proceso social que subyace a la adopción de sistemas fotovoltaicos y sus técnicas de modelado. Los resultados incluyen implicaciones tanto para académicos como políticos, no sólo sobre las innovaciones en energía renovable relativas a la paridad de red, sino también, de manera inductiva, sobre las innovaciones ambientales impulsadas por las políticas que logren la competitividad de costes. ABSTRACT Will renewable energy sources supply all of the world energy needs one day? Some argue yes, while others say no. However, in some regions of the world, the electricity production through renewable energy sources is already at a promising stage of development at which their electricity generation costs compete with conventional electricity sources’, i.e., grid parity. This achievement has been underpinned by the increase of technology efficiency, reduction of production costs and, above all, years of policy interventions of providing financial support. The diffusion of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in Germany is an important frontrunner case in point. Germany is not only the top country in terms of installed PV systems’ capacity worldwide but also one of the pioneer countries where the grid parity has recently been achieved. However, there might be a cloud on the horizon. The diffusion rate has started to decline in many regions. In addition, local solar firms – which are known to be important drivers of diffusion – have started to face difficulties to run their businesses. These developments raise some important questions: Is this a temporary decline on diffusion? Will adopters continue to install PV systems? What about the business models of the local solar firms? Based on the case of PV systems in Germany through a multi-level analysis and two complementary literature reviews, this PhD Dissertation extends the debate by providing multiple wealth of empirical details in a context-limited knowledge. The first analysis is based on the adopter perspective, which explores the “micro” level and the social process underlying the adoption of PV systems. The second one is a firm-level perspective, which explores the business models of firms and their driving roles in diffusion of PV systems. The third one is a regional perspective, which explores the “meso” level, i.e., the social process underlying the adoption of PV systems and its modeling techniques. The results include implications for both scholars and policymakers, not only about renewable energy innovations at grid parity, but also in an inductive manner, about policy-driven environmental innovations that achieve the cost competiveness.

Active materiality : the agency of matter from the phenomenological perspective = Materialidad activa : la operatividad de la materia desde el punto de vista fenomenológico

The role of matter has remained central to the making and the thinking of architecture, yet many attempts to capture its essence have been trapped in a dialectic tension between form and materiality, between material consistency and immaterial modes of perception, between static states and dynamic processes, between the real and the virtual, thus advancing an increasing awareness of the perplexing complexity of the material world. Within that complexity, the notion of agency – emerging from and within ecological, politico-economic and socio-cultural processes – calls for a reconceptualization of matter, and consequently processes of materialisation, offering a new understanding of context and space, approached as a field of dynamic relationships. In this context, cutting across boundaries between architectural discourse and practice as well as across the vast trans-disciplinary territory, this dissertation aims to illustrate a variety of design methodologies that have derived from the relational approach. More specifically, the intention is to offer new insights into spatial epistemologies embedded within the notion of atmosphere – commonly associated with the so-called New Phenomenology – and to reflect upon its implications for architectural production. In what follows, the intended argumentation has a twofold dimension. First, through a scrutiny of the notion of atmosphere, the aim is to explore ways of thinking and shaping reality through relations, thus acknowledging the aforementioned complexity of the material universe disclosed through human and non-human as well as material and immaterial forces. Secondly, despite the fact that concerns for atmospherics have flourished over the last few decades, the objective is to reveal that the conceptual foundations and procedures for the production of atmosphere might be found beneath the surface of contemporary debates. Hence, in order to unfold and illustrate previously advocated assumptions, an archaeological approach is adopted, tracing a particular projective genealogy, one that builds upon an atmospheric awareness. Accordingly, in tracing such an atmospheric awareness the study explores the notoriously ambiguous nature and the twofold dimension of atmosphere – meteorological and aesthetic – and the heterogeneity of meanings embedded in them. In this context, the notion of atmosphere is presented as parallactic. It transgresses the formal and material boundaries of bodies. It calls for a reevaluation of perceptual experience, opening a new gap that exposes the orthodox space-bodyenvironment relationships to questioning. It offers to architecture an expanded domain in which to manifest itself, defining architectural space as a contingent construction and field of engagement, and presenting matter as a locus of production/performance/action. Consequently, it is such an expanded or relational dimension that constitutes the foundation of what in the context of this study is to be referred to as affective tectonics. Namely, a tectonics that represents processual and experiential multiplicity of convergent time and space, body and environment, the material and the immaterial; a tectonics in which matter neither appears as an inert and passive substance, nor is limited to the traditionally regarded tectonic significance or expressive values, but is presented as an active element charged with inherent potential and vitality. By defining such a relational materialism, the intention is to expand the spectrum of material attributes revealing the intrinsic relationships between the physical properties of materials and their performative, transformative and affective capacities, including effects of interference and haptic dynamics – i.e. protocols of transmission and interaction. The expression that encapsulates its essence is: ACTIVE MATERIALITY RESUMEN El significado de la materia ha estado desde siempre ligado al pensamiento y el quehacer arquitectónico. Sin embargo, muchos intentos de capturar su esencia se han visto sumergidos en una tensión dialéctica entre la forma y la materialidad, entre la consistencia material y los modos inmateriales de la percepción, entre los estados estáticos y los procesos dinámicos, entre lo real y lo virtual, revelando una creciente conciencia de la desconcertante complejidad del mundo material. En esta complejidad, la noción de la operatividad o capacidad agencial– que emerge desde y dentro de los procesos ecológicos, políticos y socio-culturales– requiere de una reconceptualización de la materia y los procesos inherentes a la materialización, ofreciendo una nueva visión del contexto y el espacio, entendidos como un campo relacional dinámico. Oscilando entre el discurso arquitectónico y la práctica arquitectónica, y atravesando un extenso territorio trans-disciplinar, el objetivo de la presente tesis es ilustrar la variedad de metodologías proyectuales que emergieron desde este enfoque relacional. Concretamente, la intención es indagar en las epistemologías espaciales vinculadas a la noción de la atmósfera– generalmente asociada a la llamada Nueva Fenomenología–, reflexionando sobre su impacto en la producción arquitectónica. A continuación, el estudio ofrece una doble línea argumental. Primero, a través del análisis crítico de la noción de atmósfera, el objetivo es explorar maneras de pensar y dar forma a la realidad a través de las relaciones, reconociendo la mencionada complejidad del universo material revelado a través de fuerzas humanas y no-humanas, materiales e inmateriales. Segundo, a pesar de que el interés por las atmósferas ha florecido en las últimas décadas, la intención es demostrar que las bases conceptuales y los protocolos proyectuales de la creación de atmósferas se pueden encontrar bajo la superficie de los debates contemporáneos. Para corroborar e ilustrar estas hipótesis se propone una metodología de carácter arqueológico, trazando una particular genealogía de proyectos– la que se basa en una conciencia atmosférica. Asimismo, al definir esta conciencia atmosférica, el estudio explora tanto la naturaleza notoriamente ambigua y la dimensión dual de la atmósfera– meteorológica y estética–, como la heterogeneidad de significados derivados de ellas. En este contexto, la atmósfera se entiende como un concepto detonante, ya que sobrepasa los limites formales y materiales de los cuerpos, llevando a la re-evaluación de la experiencia perceptiva y abriendo a preguntas la ortodoxa relación espacio- cuerpo-ambiente. En consecuencia, la noción de la atmósfera ofrece a la arquitectura una dimensión expandida donde manifestarse, definiendo el espacio como una construcción contingente, performativa y afectiva, y presentando la materia como locus de producción/ actuación/ acción. Es precisamente esta dimensión expandida relacional la que constituye una base para lo que en el contexto del presente estudio se define como una tectónica afectiva. Es decir, una tectónica que representa una multiplicidad procesual y experiencial derivada de la convergencia entre el tiempo y el espacio, el cuerpo y el entorno, lo material y lo inmaterial; una tectónica en la que la materia no aparece como una substancia pasiva e inerte, ni es limitada al significado considerado tradicionalmente constructivo o a sus valores expresivos, sino que se presenta como elemento activo cargado de un potencial y vitalidad inherentes. A través de la definición de este tipo de materialismo afectivo, la intención es expandir el espectro de los atributos materiales, revelando las relaciones intrínsecas entre las propiedades físicas de los materiales y sus capacidades performativas, transformativas y afectivas, incluyendo efectos de interferencias y dinámicas hápticas– o dicho de otro modo, protocolos de transmisión e interacción. Una expresión que encapsula su esencia vendría a ser: MATERIALIDAD ACTIVA