Economic impacts of climate change on agrifood markets: A bio-economic approach with a focus on the EU

Projections for world food production and prices play a crucial role to evaluate and tackle future food security challenges. Understanding how these projections will be affected by climate change is the main objective of this study. By means of a bio-economic approach we assess the economic impacts of climate change on agrifood markets, providing both a global analysis and a regionalised evaluation within the EU. To account for uncertainty, we analyse the IPCC emission scenario A1B for the 2030 horizon under several simulation scenarios that differ in (1) the climate projection, from HadleyCM3 (warm) or ECHAM5 (mild) global circulation models; and (2) the influence of CO2 effects. Results of this study indicate that agrifood market projections to 2030 are very sensitive to climate change uncertainties and, in particular to the magnitude of the carbon fertilization effect.

Sustainability of irrigated farming systems in a Tunisian region: A recursive stochastic programming analysis

The aim of this study was to evaluate the sustainability of farm irrigation systems in the Cébalat district in northern Tunisia. It addressed the challenging topic of sustainable agriculture through a bio-economic approach linking a biophysical model to an economic optimisation model. A crop growth simulation model (CropSyst) was used to build a database to determine the relationships between agricultural practices, crop yields and environmental effects (salt accumulation in soil and leaching of nitrates) in a context of high climatic variability. The database was then fed into a recursive stochastic model set for a 10-year plan that allowed analysing the effects of cropping patterns on farm income, salt accumulation and nitrate leaching. We assumed that the long-term sustainability of soil productivity might be in conflict with farm profitability in the short-term. Assuming a discount rate of 10% (for the base scenario), the model closely reproduced the current system and allowed to predict the degradation of soil quality due to long-term salt accumulation. The results showed that there was more accumulation of salt in the soil for the base scenario than for the alternative scenario (discount rate of 0%). This result was induced by applying a higher quantity of water per hectare for the alternative as compared to a base scenario. The results also showed that nitrogen leaching is very low for the two discount rates and all climate scenarios. In conclusion, the results show that the difference in farm income between the alternative and base scenarios increases over time to attain 45% after 10 years.

Economic analysis of drought risks: an application to irrigated agriculture in Spain

Abstract This paper describes a two-part methodology for managing the risk posed by water supply variability to irrigated agriculture. First, an econometric model is used to explain the variation in the production value of irrigated agriculture. The explanatory variables include an index of irrigation water availability (surface storage levels), a price index representative of the crops grown in each geographical unit, and a time variable. The model corrects for autocorrelation and it is applied to 16 representative Spanish provinces in terms of irrigated agriculture. In the second part, the fitted models are used for the economic evaluation of drought risk. In flow variability in the hydrological system servicing each province is used to perform ex-ante evaluations of economic output for the upcoming irrigation season. The model?s error and the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the reservoirs? storage variations are used to generate Monte Carlo (Latin Hypercube) simulations of agricultural output 7 and 3 months prior to the irrigation season. The results of these simulations illustrate the different risk profiles of each management unit, which depend on farm productivity and on the probability distribution function of water in flow to reservoirs. The potential for ex-ante drought impact assessments is demonstrated. By complementing hydrological models, this method can assist water managers and decisionmakers in managing reservoirs.

Oxygen extended sooting index of FAME blends with aviation kerosene

The use of biofuels in the aviation sector has economic and environmental benefits. Among the options for the production of renewable jet fuels, hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) have received predominant attention in comparison with fatty acid methyl esters (FAME), which are not approved as additives for jet fuels. However, the presence of oxygen in methyl esters tends to reduce soot emissions and therefore particulate matter emissions. This sooting tendency is quantified in this work with an oxygen-extended sooting index, based on smoke point measurements. Results have shown considerable reduction in the sooting tendency for all biokerosenes (produced by transesterification and eventually distillation) with respect to fossil kerosenes. Among the tested biokerosenes, that made from palm kernel oil was the most effective one, and nondistilled methyl esters (from camelina and linseed oils) showed lower effectiveness than distilled biokerosenes to reduce the sooting tendency. These results may constitute an additional argument for the use of FAME’s as blend components of jet fuels. Other arguments were pointed out in previous publications, but some controversy has aroused over the use of these components. Some of the criticism was based on the fact that the methods used in our previous work are not approved for jet fuels in the standard methods and concluded that the use of FAME in any amount is, thus, inappropriate. However, some of the standard methods are not updated for considering oxygenated components (like the method for obtaining the lower heating value), and others are not precise enough (like the methods for measuring the freezing point), whereas some alternative methods may provide better reproducibility for oxygenated fuels.

Integrated assessment of policy interventions for promoting sustainable irrigation in semi-arid environments: A hydro-economic modeling approach

Sustaining irrigated agriculture to meet food production needs while maintaining aquatic ecosystems is at the heart of many policy debates in various parts of the world, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. Researchers and practitioners are increasingly calling for integrated approaches, and policy-makers are progressively supporting the inclusion of ecological and social aspects in water management programs. This paper contributes to this policy debate by providing an integrated economic-hydrologic modeling framework that captures the socio-economic and environmental effects of various policy initiatives and climate variability. This modeling integration includes a risk-based economic optimization model and a hydrologic water management simulation model that have been specified for the Middle Guadiana basin, a vulnerable drought-prone agro-ecological area with highly regulated river systems in southwest Spain. Namely, two key water policy interventions were investigated: the implementation of minimum environmental flows (supported by the European Water Framework Directive, EU WFD), and a reduction in the legal amount of water delivered for irrigation (planned measure included in the new Guadiana River Basin Management Plan, GRBMP, still under discussion). Results indicate that current patterns of excessive water use for irrigation in the basin may put environmental flow demands at risk, jeopardizing the WFD s goal of restoring the ?good ecological status? of water bodies by 2015. Conflicts between environmental and agricultural water uses will be stressed during prolonged dry episodes, and particularly in summer low-flow periods, when there is an important increase of crop irrigation water requirements. Securing minimum stream flows would entail a substantial reduction in irrigation water use for rice cultivation, which might affect the profitability and economic viability of small rice-growing farms located upstream in the river. The new GRBMP could contribute to balance competing water demands in the basin and to increase economic water productivity, but might not be sufficient to ensure the provision of environmental flows as required by the WFD. A thoroughly revision of the basin s water use concession system for irrigation seems to be needed in order to bring the GRBMP in line with the WFD objectives. Furthermore, the study illustrates that social, economic, institutional, and technological factors, in addition to bio-physical conditions, are important issues to be considered for designing and developing water management strategies. The research initiative presented in this paper demonstrates that hydro-economic models can explicitly integrate all these issues, constituting a valuable tool that could assist policy makers for implementing sustainable irrigation policies.

Incertidumbre en bio-sensores ópticos asociada al desplazamiento espectral de los modos de interferencia de la señal de transducción

El análisis del comportamiento de los modos de interferencia tiene una aplicación cada vez mas amplia, especialmente en el campo de los biosensores opticos. En este tipo de sensores se observa el desplazamiento Δν de los modos de interferencia de la señal de transducción al reconocer un determinado agente biologico. Para medir ese desplazamiento se debe detectar la posición de un máximo o minimo de la senal antes y después de dicho desplazamiento. En este tipo de biosensores un parámetro de gran importancia es el periodo Pν de la senal el cual es inversamente proporcional al espesor óptico h0 del sensor en ausencia de agente biologico. El aumento de dicho periodo mejora la sensibilidad del sensor pero parece dificultar la detección del minimo o maximo. Por tanto, su efecto sobre la incetidumbre del resultado de la medida presentados efectos contrapuestos: la mejora de la sensibilidad frente a la dificultad creciente en la detección del minimo o maximo. En este trabajo, los autores analizan la propagación de incertidumbres en estos sensores utilizando herramientas de ajuste por MM.CC. para la detección de los minimos o máximos de la senal y técnicas de propagación de incertidumbres descritas en los suplementos 2 de la Guia ISO-GUM. El resultado del análisis permite dar una respuesta, justificada desde el punto de vista metrologico, de en que condiciones es conveniente o no aumentar el periodo Pν de la senal.

Impact of introducing longer and heavier vehicles on regional consumer price index and Spanish road freight transport system

This paper applies an integrated modeling approach to the case of Spain; the approach is based on a random utility-based multiregional input-output model and a road transport network model for assessing the effect of introducing longer and heavier vehicles (LHVs) on the regional consumer price index (CPI) and on the transportation system. The approach strongly supports the concept that changes in transport costs derived from the LHV allowance as well as the economic structure of regions have direct and indirect effects on the economy and on the transportation system. Results show that the introduction of LHVs might reduce prices paid by consumers for a representative basket of goods and services in the regions of Spain and would also lead to a reduction in the regional CPI. In addition, the magnitude and extent of changes in the transportation system are estimated by using the commodity-based structure of the approach to identify the effect of traffic changes on traffic flows and on pollutant emissions over the whole network.

The impact of the economic crisis and policy actions on GHG emissions from road transport in Spain

Road traffic is the greatest contributor to the carbon footprint of the transport sector and reducing it has become one of the main targets of sustainable transport policies. An analysis of the main factors influencing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is essential for designing new energy- and environmentally efficient strategies for the road transport. This paper addresses this need by (i) identifying factors which influence the carbon footprint, including traffic activity, fuel economy and socioeconomic development; and (ii) proposing a methodological framework which uses Modified Laspeyres Index decomposition to analyze the effect of important drivers on the changes in emissions of road transport in Spain during the period from 1990 to 2010. The results demonstrate that the country׳s economic growth has been closely linked to the rise in GHG emissions. The innovative contribution of this paper is the special analysis of the changes in mobility patterns and GHG emissions during the economic crisis, when, for the first time, Spanish road traffic emissions decreased. The reduction of road transport and improved energy efficiency has been powerful contributors to this decrease, demonstrating the effectiveness of energy-saving measures. On the basis of this analysis, several tailored policy recommendations have been suggested for future implementation.

Perspectivas del cultivo de sorgo azucarero para bio-etanol en España en base a resultados varietales en ensayos multilocales

La especie Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench., perteneciente a la familia de las gramíneas (Poaceae), es una planta de origen tropical, sensible al fotoperiodo y a la temperatura, que muestra una alta eficiencia fotosintética en condiciones adecuadas de cultivo.