A Cost-Benefit analysis model for technical debt management considering uncertainty and time

In the last few years, technical debt has been used as a useful means for making the intrinsic cost of the internal software quality weaknesses visible. This visibility is made possible by quantifying this cost. Specifically, technical debt is expressed in terms of two main concepts: principal and interest. The principal is the cost of eliminating or reducing the impact of a, so called, technical debt item in a software system; whereas the interest is the recurring cost, over a time period, of not eliminating a technical debt item. Previous works about technical debt are mainly focused on estimating principal and interest, and on performing a cost-benefit analysis. This cost-benefit analysis allows one to determine if to remove technical debt is profitable and to prioritize which items incurring in technical debt should be fixed first. Nevertheless, for these previous works technical debt is flat along the time. However the introduction of new factors to estimate technical debt may produce non flat models that allow us to produce more accurate predictions. These factors should be used to estimate principal and interest, and to perform cost-benefit analysis related to technical debt. In this paper, we take a step forward introducing the uncertainty about the interest, and the time frame factors so that it becomes possible to depict a number of possible future scenarios. Estimations obtained without considering the possible evolution of the interest over time may be less accurate as they consider simplistic scenarios without changes.

Good and bad practices in pv plants

The PVCROPS project (PhotoVolta ic Cost r€duction, Reliability, Operational performance, Prediction and Simulation), cofinanced by European Commission in the frame of Seventh Framework Programme, has compiled in the “Good and bad practices: Manual to improve the quality and reduce the cost of PV systems” a collection of good and bad practices in actual PV plants . All the situations it collects represent the state-of-the-art of existing PV installations all around Europe. They show how the different parts of an installation can be implem ented properly or not. The aim of this manual is to represent a reference text which can help any PV actor (installers, electricians, maintenance operators, owners, etc.) not only to check and improve an already existing installation but will also, and mainly, avoid the previously known bad practices for the construction of a new PV installation. Thus, solving a priori the known errors, new PV installations will be more reliable, efficient and cost-effective and can recover the initial investment in a shorter time. The manual is going to be free available in the PVCROPS website in several languages.

A Valuation of SAREB, the Spanish “Bad Bank”, Upside Using the Real Options Methodology

This paper develops a model to analyze the upside potential of profitability of the SAREB (“Asset Management Company for Assets Arising from Bank Restructuring”), the Spanish “Bad Bank”. The model is based in the Real Options methodology, that is especially adequate due to the convergence of two elements, (i) depreciated assets with a high upside potential, and (ii) a highly volatile market as it has shown to be the real estate Spanish market. Our results suggest that the SAREB has a higher than expected profitability potentialthat would be dedicated to increase the return to its shareholders, mainly private banks. Consequently we also show that after the financial crisis are emerging two types of banks in Spain, in one hand the losers who are transferring their real estate assets at a deep discount, and in the other hand the winners, capturing the upside potential of those assets as shareholders of SAREB, and consequently consolidating their strength in the Spanish Real Estate Industry. It is worth to mention that Governments should make an effort in properly redistribute the wealth generated by the real Estate industry.