Advanced methodologies for the dendrogeomorphic analysis of past floods and related risks

This communication presents an overview of their first results and innovate methodologies, focused in their possibilities and limitations for the reconstruction of recent floods and paleofloods over the World.

Análisis técnico-económico de acceso al mercado alemán EPEX SPOT

Acciona Energía dispone en Alemania de 150 MW de potencia instalada. Todos ellos de energía eólica, en un total de doce parques eólicos situados en la sur del país. El proyecto tiene por objeto comparar las distintas modalidades de venta de energía procedente de fuentes renovables que ofrece el estado alemán para la cartera de activos de Acciona Energía, llegando a una conclusión final de cuál de ellas es la más aconsejable. Para ello se ha realizado un estudio del funcionamiento y normas del mercado Epex Spot de la electricidad y de la legislación alemana correspondiente a la materia, así como un seguimiento exhaustivo de producción y otras variables de los parques eólicos para su análisis. Los cálculos y las estimaciones realizados llevaron a la conclusión, que la mejor opción era la venta directa en el mercado Epex Spot, para lo que primero habría que darse de alta como agente en dicho mercado. Aunque esta opción asuma mayores riesgos también ofrecería un aumento considerable de ingresos. ABSTRACT Acciona Energía has 150 MW of power capacity in Germany, all of them wind energy in a total of twelve installations, located in the south of the country. The main goal of the project is to compare the different ways to sell the energy which became from renewable source that German state offers for Acciona’s asset portfolio, finding the most advisable conclusion. To do so a study of standards and rules of Epex Spot electricity market and German law related to this topic has been made. In addition of an exhaustive monitoring of energy production and others wind farms variables has been analyzed. The reckoning and estimations saw the conclusion that the best option was the direct sell in Epex Spot market, in order to do that the first of all is to register as market agent. Despite this options assume bigger risks, it provide a substantial increase in income

Economic analysis of drought risks: an application to irrigated agriculture in Spain

Abstract This paper describes a two-part methodology for managing the risk posed by water supply variability to irrigated agriculture. First, an econometric model is used to explain the variation in the production value of irrigated agriculture. The explanatory variables include an index of irrigation water availability (surface storage levels), a price index representative of the crops grown in each geographical unit, and a time variable. The model corrects for autocorrelation and it is applied to 16 representative Spanish provinces in terms of irrigated agriculture. In the second part, the fitted models are used for the economic evaluation of drought risk. In flow variability in the hydrological system servicing each province is used to perform ex-ante evaluations of economic output for the upcoming irrigation season. The model?s error and the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the reservoirs? storage variations are used to generate Monte Carlo (Latin Hypercube) simulations of agricultural output 7 and 3 months prior to the irrigation season. The results of these simulations illustrate the different risk profiles of each management unit, which depend on farm productivity and on the probability distribution function of water in flow to reservoirs. The potential for ex-ante drought impact assessments is demonstrated. By complementing hydrological models, this method can assist water managers and decisionmakers in managing reservoirs.

A Process Asset Library to support Software Process Improvement in Small Settings

A main factor to the success of any organization process improvement effort is the Process Asset Library implementation that provides a central database accessible by anyone at the organization. This repository includes any process support materials to help process deployment. Those materials are composed of organization's standard software process, software process related documentation, descriptions of the software life cycles, guidelines, examples, templates, and any artefacts that the organization considers useful to help the process improvement. This paper describe the structure and contents of the Web-based Process Asset Library for Small businesses and small groups within large organizations. This library is structured using CMMI as reference model in order to implement those Process Areas described by this model.

Assessment of self-combustion risks for solid fuels (POSTER)

Every solid fuel has a tendency to react with oxygen, a fact that constitutes the basis of their ability to oxidation and energy intake for combustion, but that poses a risk when it occurs in an uncontrolled manner. When the slow oxidation phenomenon produces more heat than can be evacuated, the result is a heating process, which promotes combustion reactions, primarily fuel oxidation, and a progressive increase in temperature.

An Integrated Approach to Strategic Asset Management

This paper focuses on identifying and analysing the elements of Strategic Management for infrastructure and engineering assets. These elements are contended to involve an understanding of governance, corporate policy, corporate objectives, corporate strategy and interagency collaboration and will in turn, allow the ability determine a broader and more comprehensive framework for engineering asset management, ie a ‘staged approach’ to understanding how assets are managed within organisations. While the assets themselves have often been the sole concern for good management practices, other social and contextual elements have come into the mix in order to promote strategic asset management. The development of an integrated approach to asset management is at the base of the research question. What are the considerations and implications for adopting and implementing an integrated strategic asset management (ISAM) framework? While operational matters have been given prominence, a subset of corporate governance, Asset Governance, details the policies and processes needed to acquire, utilise, maintain and account for an organisation’s assets. Asset governance stems from the organisation’s overarching corporate governance principles; as a result it defines the management context in which engineering asset management is implemented. This aspect will be examined to determine the appropriate relationship between organisational strategic management and strategic asset management to further the theoretical engagement with the maturity of strategy,policy and governance for infrastructure and engineered assets. Asset governance stems from the organisation’s overarching corporate governance principles; as a result it defines the management context in which engineering asset management is implemented. The research proceeds by a document analysis of corporate reports and policy recommendations in terms of infrastructure and engineered assets. The paper concludes that incorporating an integrated asset management framework can promote a more robust conceptualisation of public assets and how they combine to provide a comprehensive system of service outcomes.

Metamodelo para la definición, implantación y mejora de los procesos de gestión de proyectos

En los últimos años hemos sido testigos de la creciente demanda de software para resolver problemas cada vez más complejos y de mayor valor agregado. Bajo estas circunstancias, nos podemos hacer la siguiente pregunta: ¿Está preparada la industria de software para entregar el software que se necesita en los próximos años, de acuerdo con las demandas del cliente? Hoy en día, muchos expertos creen que el éxito de esta industria dependerá de su capacidad para gestionar los proyectos, las personas y los recursos. En este sentido, la gestión de proyectos es un factor clave para el éxito de los proyectos software en todo el mundo. Además, considerando que las Pequeñas y Medianas Empresas de software (PYMEs) representan el 99,87% de las empresas españolas, es vital para este tipo de empresas la implementación de los procesos involucrados con la gestión de proyectos. Es cierto que existen muchos modelos que mejoran la eficacia de la gestión de proyectos, pero la mayoría de ellos se centra únicamente en dos procesos: la planificación del proyecto y la monitorización y control del proyecto, ninguno de los cuales a menudo es asequible para las PYMEs. Estos modelos se basan en el consenso de un grupo de trabajo designado para establecer cómo debe ser gestionado el proceso software. Los modelos son bastante útiles ya que proporcionan lineamientos generales sobre dónde empezar a mejorar la gestión de los proyectos, y en qué orden, a personas que no saben cómo hacerlo. Sin embargo, como se ha dicho anteriormente, la mayoría de estos modelos solamente funcionan en escenarios dentro de las grandes empresas. Por lo tanto, es necesario adaptar los modelos y herramientas para el contexto de PYMEs. Esta tesis doctoral presenta una solución complementaria basada en la aplicación de un metamodelo. Este metamodelo es creado para mejorar la calidad de los procesos de la gestión de proyectos a través de la incorporación de prácticas eficaces identificadas a través del análisis y estudio de los modelos y normas existentes relacionadas con la gestión de proyectos. viii ProMEP – Metamodelo para la gestión de proyectos Por lo tanto, el metamodelo PROMEP (Gestión de Proyectos basada en Prácticas Efectivas) permitirá establecer un proceso estándar de gestión de proyectos que puede adaptarse a los proyectos de cada empresa a través de dos pasos: En primer lugar, para obtener una fotografía instantánea (o base) de los procesos de gestión de proyectos de las PYMEs se creó un cuestionario de dos fases para identificar tanto las prácticas realizadas y como las no realizadas. El cuestionario propuesto se basa en el Modelo de Madurez y Capacidad Integrado para el Desarrollo v1.2 (CMMI-DEV v1.2). Como resultado adicional, se espera que la aplicación de este cuestionario ayude a las PYMEs a identificar aquellas prácticas que se llevan a cabo, pero no son documentadas, aquellas que necesitan más atención, y aquellas que no se realizan debido a la mala gestión o al desconocimiento. En segundo lugar, para apoyar fácilmente y eficazmente las tareas de gestión de proyectos software del metamodelo PROMEP, se diseñó una biblioteca de activos de proceso (PAL) para apoyar la definición de los procesos de gestión de proyectos y realizar una gestión cuantitativa de cada proyecto de las PYMEs. Ambos pasos se han implementado como una herramienta computacional que apoya nuestro enfoque de metamodelo. En concreto, la presente investigación propone la construcción del metamodelo PROMEP para aquellas PYMEs que desarrollan productos software de tal forma que les permita planificar, monitorizar y controlar sus proyectos software, identificar los riesgos y tomar las medidas correctivas necesarias, establecer y mantener un conjunto de activos de proceso, definir un mecanismo cuantitativo para predecir el rendimiento de los procesos, y obtener información de mejora. Por lo tanto, nuestro estudio sugiere un metamodelo alternativo para lograr mayores niveles de rendimiento en los entornos de PYMEs. Así, el objetivo principal de esta tesis es ayudar a reducir los excesos de trabajo y el tiempo de entrega, y aumentar así la calidad del software producido en este tipo de organizaciones. Abstract In recent years we have been witnessing the increasing demand for software to solve more and more complex tasks and greater added value. Under these circumstances, we can ourselves the following question: Is the software industry prepared to deliver the software that is needed in the coming years, according to client demands? Nowadays, many experts believe that the industry’ success will depend on its capacity to manage the projects, people and resources. In this sense, project management is a key factor for software project success around the world. Moreover, taking into account that small and medium-sized software enterprises (SMSe) are the 99.87% of the Spanish enterprises, it is vital for this type of enterprises to implement the processes involved in project management. It is true that there are many models that improve the project management effectiveness, but most of them are focused only on two processes: project planning and project monitoring and control, neither of which is affordable for SMSe. Such models are based on the consensus of a designated working group on how software process should be managed. They are very useful in that they provide general guidelines on where to start improving the project management, and in which order, to people who do not know how to do it. However, as we said, the majority of these models have only worked in scenarios within large companies. So, it is necessary to adapt these models and tools to the context of SMSe. A complementary solution based on the implementation of a metamodel is presented in this thesis. This metamodel is created to improve the quality of project management processes through the incorporation of effective practices identified through the analysis and study of relevant models and standards related to project management. Thus, the PROMEP (PROject Management based on Effective Practices) metamodel will allow establishing a project management standard process to be tailored to each enterprise’s project through two steps: Firstly, to obtain a baseline snapshot of project management processes in SMSe a two-phase questionnaire was created to identify both performed and nonperformed practices. The x ProMEP – Metamodelo para la gestión de proyectos proposed questionnaire is based on Capability Maturity Model Integration for Development v1.2. As additional result, it is expected that the application of the questionnaire to the processes will help SMSe to identify those practices which are performed but not documented, which practices need more attention, and which are not implemented due to bad management or unawareness. Secondly, to easily an effectively support the software project management tasks in the PROMEP metamodel, a Process Asset Library (PAL) is designed to support the definition of project management processes and to achieve quantitative project management in SMSe. Both steps have been implemented as a computational tool that supports our metamodel approach. Concretely, the present research proposes the accomplishment of the PROMEP metamodel for those SMSe which develop software products and enable them to plan, supervise and control their software projects, identify risks and take corrective actions, establish and maintain a set of process assets, define quantitative models that predict the process performance, and provide improvement information. So, our study suggests an alternative metamodel to achieve higher performance levels in the SMSe environments. The main objective of this thesis is help to reduce software overruns and delivery time, and increase software quality in these types of organizations.

People and Facility Management. The team: the main asset of any management

From the moment we enter a large office building until we leave it, we receive a lot of attentions served by the management of services to the user. However, it is usually quite inappreciable the work that is being developed to keep things running smoothly.The services provided in a building are carried out by people. However, we often tend to forget these people when we talk about the tasks that make that a building operates properly 24 hours a day, 365 days a year.But, for example, what would happen if one day the service provided by the reception in a large building did not function as it should? What would it be like if one day the person performing the service of maintenance of the building's cleaning were not at his post? How would the working day develop if there were not a correct air handling system?People are the foundation of the proper functioning of a building. The work of the Facilities Manager and the Facility Management is the management of their functions: the responsible management of the team.

Analyzing climate change adaptation in the agriculture and water sectors: screening risks and opportunities.

As part of the Mediterranean area, the Guadiana basin in Spain is particularly exposed to increasing water stress due to climate change. Future warmer and drier climate will have negative implications for the sustainability of water resources and irrigation agriculture, the main socio- economic sector in the region. This paper illustrates a systematic analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation in the Guadiana basin based on a two-stage modeling approach. First, an integrated hydro-economic modeling framework was used to simulate the potential effects of regional climate change scenarios for the period 2000-2069. Second, a participatory multi-criteria technique, namely the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), was applied to rank potential adaptation measures based on agreed criteria. Results show that, in the middle-long run and under severe climate change, reduced water availability, lower crop yields and increased irrigation demands might lead to water shortages, crop failure, and up to ten percent of income losses to irrigators. AHP results show how private farming adaptation measures, including improving irrigation efficiency and adjusting crop varieties, are preferred to public adaptation measures, such as building new dams. The integrated quantitative and qualitative methodology used in this research can be considered a socially-based valuable tool to support adaptation decision-making.

Identifying Potential Risks and Benefits of Using Cloud in Distributed Software Development.

Cloud-based infrastructure has been increasingly adopted by the industry in distributed software development (DSD) environments. Its proponents claim that its several benefits include reduced cost, increased speed and greater productivity in software development. Empirical evaluations, however, are in the nascent stage of examining both the benefits and the risks of cloud-based infrastructure. The objective of this paper is to identify potential benefits and risks of using cloud in a DSD project conducted by teams based in Helsinki and Madrid. A cross-case qualitative analysis is performed based on focus groups conducted at the Helsinki and Madrid sites. Participants observations are used to supplement the analysis. The results of the analysis indicated that the main benefits of using cloud are rapid development, continuous integration, cost savings, code sharing, and faster ramp-up. The key risks determined by the project are dependencies, unavailability of access to the cloud, code commitment and integration, technical debt, and additional support costs. The results revealed that if such environments are not planned and set up carefully, the benefits of using cloud in DSD projects might be overshadowed by the risks associated with it.

Methodological issues of LCA application to building sector: challenges, risks and opportunities

Methodological issues of LCA application to building sector: challenges, risks and opportunities

Water option contracts for reducing water supply risks: an application to the Tagus-Segura Transfer

El agua es un recurso cada vez más escaso y valioso. Por ello, los recursos hídricos disponibles deben asignarse de una forma eficiente entre los diferentes usos. El cambio climático aumentará la frecuencia y severidad de los eventos extremos, y podría incrementar la demanda de agua de los cultivos. El empleo de mecanismos flexibles de asignación de agua puede ser imprescindible para hacer frente a este aumento en la variabilidad del balance hídrico y para asegurar que los riesgos de suministro, y no solo los recursos, son compartidos de manera eficiente entre los usuarios. Los mercados de agua permiten la reasignación de los recursos hídricos, favoreciendo su transferencia desde los usos de menor a los de mayor valor. Diferentes tipos de mercados de agua se han establecido en diferentes partes del mundo, ayudando a los participantes a afrontar los problemas de escasez de agua en esas zonas. En España, los intercambios de agua están permitidos desde 1999, aunque la participación de los usuarios en el mercado ha sido limitada. Hay varios aspectos de los mercados de agua en España que deben mejorarse. Esta tesis, además de proponer una serie de cambios en el marco regulatorio, propone la introducción de contratos de opción de agua como una posible mejora. La principal ventaja de este tipo de contratos es la estabilidad legal e institucional que éstos proporcionan tanto a compradores como vendedores. Para apoyar esta propuesta, se han llevado a cabo diferentes análisis que muestran el potencial de los contratos de opción como herramienta de reducción del riesgo asociado a una oferta de agua inestable. La Cuenca del Segura (Sureste de España), la Cuenca del Tajo y el Acueducto Tajo- Segura han sido seleccionados como casos de estudio. Tres análisis distintos aplicados a dicha región se presentan en esta tesis: a) una evaluación de los contratos de opción como mecanismo para reducir los riesgos de disponibilidad de agua sufridos por los regantes en la Cuenca del Segura; b) un marco teórico para analizar las preferencias de los regantes por diferentes mecanismos de gestión del riesgo de disponibilidad de agua, su disposición a pagar por ellos y los precios aproximados de estos instrumentos (seguro de sequía y contratos de opción de agua); y c) una evaluación del papel de los contratos de opción en las decisiones de aprovisionamiento de agua de una comunidad de regantes ante una oferta de agua incierta. Los resultados muestran el potencial de reducción del riesgo de los contratos de opción para regantes en España, pero pueden ser extrapolados a otros sectores o regiones. Las principales conclusiones de esta tesis son: a) la agricultura será uno de los sectores más afectados por el cambio climático. Si los precios del agua aumentan, la rentabilidad de los cultivos puede caer hasta niveles negativos, lo que podría dar lugar al abandono de cultivos de regadío en algunas zonas de España. Las políticas de cambio climático y de agua deben estar estrechamente coordinadas para asegurar un uso de agua eficiente y la rentabilidad de la agricultura; b) aunque los mercados de agua han ayudado a algunos usuarios a afrontar problemas de disponibilidad del recurso en momentos de escasez, hay varios aspectos que deben mejorarse; c) es necesario desarrollar mercados de agua más flexibles y estables para garantizar una asignación eficiente de los recursos entre los usuarios de agua; d) los resultados muestran los beneficios derivados del establecimiento de un contrato de opción entre usuarios de agua del Tajo y del Segura para reducir el riesgo de disponibilidad de agua en la cuenca receptora; e) la disposición a pagar de los regantes por un contrato de opción de agua o un seguro de sequía hidrológica, que representa el valor que tienen estos mecanismos para aquellos usuarios de agua que se enfrentan a riesgos relacionados con la disponibilidad del recurso, es consistente con los resultados obtenidos en estudios previos y superior al precio de mercado de estos instrumentos, lo que favorece la viabilidad de estos mecanismos de gestión del riesgo ; y f) los contratos de opción podrían ayudar a optimizar las decisiones de aprovisionamiento de agua bajo incertidumbre, proporcionando más estabilidad y flexibilidad que los mercados temporales de agua. ABSTRACT Water is becoming increasingly scarce and valuable. Thus, existing water resources need to be efficiently allocated among users. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme events, and it may also increase irrigated crops' water demand. The implementation of flexible allocation mechanisms could be essential to cope with this increased variability of the water balance and ensure that supply risks, and not only water resources, are also efficiently shared and managed. Water markets allow for the reallocation of water resources from low to high value uses. Different water trading mechanisms have been created in different parts of the world and have helped users to alleviate water scarcity problems in those areas. In Spain, water trading is allowed since 1999, although market activity has been limited. There are several issues in the Spanish water market that should be improved. This thesis, besides proposing several changes in the legislative framework, proposes the introduction of water option contracts as a potential improvement. The main advantage for both buyer and seller derived from an option contract is the institutional and legal stability it provides. To support this proposal, different analyses have been carried out that show the potential of option contracts as a risk reduction tool to manage water supply instability. The Segura Basin (Southeast Spain), the Tagus Basin and the Tagus-Segura inter-basin Transfer have been selected as the case study. Three different analyses applied to this region are presented in this thesis: a) an evaluation of option contracts as a mechanisms to reduce water supply availability risks in the Segura Basin; b) a theoretical framework for analyzing farmer’s preferences for different water supply risk management tools and farmers’ willingness to pay for them, together with the assessment of the prices of these mechanisms (drought insurance and water option contracts); and c) an evaluation of the role of option contracts in water procurement decisions under uncertainty. Results show the risk-reduction potential of option contracts for the agricultural sector in Spain, but these results can be extrapolated to other sectors or regions. The main conclusions of the thesis are: a) agriculture would be one of the most affected sectors by climate change. With higher water tariffs, crop’s profitability can drop to negative levels, which may result in the abandoning of the crop in many areas. Climate change and water policies must be closely coordinated to ensure efficient water use and crops’ profitability; b) although Spanish water markets have alleviated water availability problems for some users during water scarcity periods, there are several issues that should be improved; c) more flexible and stable water market mechanisms are needed to allocate water resources and water supply risks among competing users; d) results show the benefits derived from the establishment of an inter-basin option contract between water users in the Tagus and the Segura basins for reducing water supply availability risks in the recipient area; e) irrigators’ willingness to pay for option contracts or drought insurance, that represent the value that this kind of trading mechanisms has for water users facing water supply reliability problems, are consistent with results obtained in previous works and higher than the prices of this risk management tools, which shows the feasibility of these mechanisms; and f) option contracts would help to optimize water procurement decisions under uncertainty, providing more flexibility and stability than the spot market.

Assessment of insurance coverage and claims in rainfall related risks in processing tomato in Western Spain

An extension of guarantees related to rainfall-related risks in the insurance of processing tomato crops has been accompanied with a large increase in claims in Western Spain, suggesting that damages may have been underestimated in previous years. A database was built by linking agricultural insurance records, meteorological data from local weather stations, and topographic data. The risk of rainfall-related damages in processing tomato in the Extremenian Guadiana river basin (W Spain) was studied using a logistic model. Risks during the growth of the crop and at harvesting were modelled separately. First, the risk related to rainfall was modelled as a function of meteorological, terrain and management variables. The resulting models were used to identify the variables responsible for rainfall-related damages, with a view to assess the potential impact of extending insurance coverage, and to develop an index to express the suitability of the cropping system for insurance. The analyses reveal that damages at different stages of crop development correspond to different hazards. The geographic dependence of the risk influences the scale at which the model might have validity, which together with the year dependency, the possibility of implementing index based insurances is questioned.

People, management and social responsability. The team: the main asset of any management

People, management and social responsability. The team: the main asset of any management. En colaboración con Dña. Montserrat Castellanos Moreno. Profesora Asociada de la Universidad Europea. Journal of Management and Marketing. Thomson Reuters. Zilina. Slovakia

People and Facility Management. The team: The main asset of any management

From the moment we enter a large office building until we leave it, we receive a lot of attentions served by the management of services to the user. However, it is usually quite inappreciable the work that is being developed to keep things running smoothly. The services provided in a building are carried out by people. However, we often tend to forget these people when we talk about the tasks that make that a building operates properly 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. But, for example, what would happen if one day the service provided by the reception in a large building did not function as it should? What would it be like if one day the person performing the service of maintenance of the building's cleaning were not at his post? How would the working day develop if there were not a correct air handling system? People are the foundation of the proper functioning of a building. The work of the Facilities Manager and the Facility Management is the management of their functions: the responsible management of the team.