Valoración de recursos propios en empresas mineras: evidencia y comparación con otros sectores

El capital financiero es muy volátil y si el inversor no obtiene una remuneración adecuada al riesgo que asume puede plantearse el retirar su capital del patrimonio de la empresa y, en consecuencia, producir un cambio estructural en cualquier sector de la economía. El objetivo principal es el estudio de los coeficientes de regresión (coeficiente beta) de los modelos de valoración de activos empleados en Economía Financiera, esto es, el estudio de la variación de la rentabilidad de los activos en función de los cambios que suceden en los mercados. La elección de los modelos utilizados se justifica por la amplia utilización teórica y empírica de los mismos a lo largo de la historia de la Economía Financiera. Se han aplicado el modelo de valoración de activos de mercado (capital asset pricing model, CAPM), el modelo basado en la teoría de precios de arbitraje (arbitrage pricing theory, APT) y el modelo de tres factores de Fama y French (FF). Estos modelos se han aplicado a los rendimientos mensuales de 27 empresas del sector minero que cotizan en la bolsa de Nueva York (New York Stock Exchange, NYSE) o en la de Londres (London Stock Exchange, LSE), con datos del período que comprende desde Enero de 2006 a Diciembre de 2010. Los resultados de series de tiempo y sección cruzada tanto para CAPM, como para APT y FF producen varios errores, lo que sugiere que muchas empresas del sector no han podido obtener el coste de capital. También los resultados muestran que las empresas de mayor riesgo tienden a tener una menor rentabilidad. Estas conclusiones hacen poco probable que se mantenga en el largo plazo el equilibrio actual y puede que sea uno de los principales factores que impulsen un cambio estructural en el sector minero en forma de concentraciones de empresas. ABSTRACT Financial capital is highly volatile and if the investor does not get adequate compensation for the risk faced he may consider withdrawing his capital assets from the company and consequently produce a structural change in any sector of the economy. The main purpose is the study of the regression coefficients (beta) of asset pricing models used in financial economics, that is, the study of variation in profitability of assets in terms of the changes that occur in the markets. The choice of models used is justified by the extensive theoretical and empirical use of them throughout the history of financial economics. Have been used the capital asset pricing model, CAPM, the model XII based on the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) and the three-factor model of Fama and French (FF). These models have been applied to the monthly returns of 27 mining companies listed on the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) or LSE(London Stock Exchange), using data from the period covered from January 2006 to December 2010. The results of time series and cross sectional regressions for CAPM, APT and FF produce some errors, suggesting that many companies have failed to obtain the cost of capital. Also the results show that higher risk firms tend to have lower profitability. These findings make it unlikely to be mainteined over the long term the current status and could drive structural change in the mining sector in the form of mergers.

Equity pricing in the mining sector: evidence from NYSE and LSE

The study examines the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) for the mining sector using weekly stock returns from 27 companies traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) for the period of December 2008 to December 2010. The results support the use of the CAPM for the allocation of risk to companies. Most companies involved in precious metals (particularly gold), which have a beta value less than unity (Table 1), have been actuated as shelter values during the financial crisis. Values of R2 do not shown very explanatory power of fitted models (R2 < 70 %). Estimated coefficients beta are not sufficient to determine the expected returns on securities but the results of the tests conducted on sample data for the period analysed do not appear to clearly reject the CAPM

A study of four listed micro finance institutions

Compared to the size of the microfinance market, the number of Microfinance Institutions that are professionally ran like commercial banks is still scarce, and even more scarce are the MFI listed in public stock exchanges. This document focuses on four listed MFIs and reviews its business model and funding sources. The document also analyses the market price evolution of the listed shares and investigates whether investors are assigning a premium to the MFIs compared with its respective market indices. Keywords: Microfinance institutions, Micro-credits, Financial Institutions, Equity; Stock Exchange.

International for-profit investiments in microfinance institutions equity

In recent years international investors are increasing the focus on the social consequences of their investments along with its financial returns. The microfinance sector, considered as an asset class is a relatively young concept but the microfinance industry is experiencing a tremendous growth and has a high potential for the future. Today most social responsible investments in microfinance are performed through loans or fixed income structured finance vehicles. The possibilities to invest in the equity tranche of the industry are still scarce since the number of listed microfinance institutions is reduced and the private equity investments are limited and difficult to reach for the majority of investors. In this document we present a study on the characteristics of the MFIs and we try to shed some light on this subsector of the equity assets universe that may become important in the coming future. Keywords: Microfinance institutions, Micro-credits, Financial Institutions, Equity; Stock Exchange

International For-Profit Investments in Microfinance Institutions Equity

Purpose: The purpose of this document is to review the funding options for Microfinance Institutions (MFIs), define the size of the holdings of international investors in MFI equity and in particular the MFIs listed in stock exchanges, analyze the characteristics of these subset of the financial world and study the stock exchange evolution of some listed MFIs amid the financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach: Since academic literature on listed MFI equity is virtually inexistent, most of the information has been obtained from the World Bank, annual accounts of the listed MFIs, stock exchanges and from equity research documents. Findings and Originality/value: Microfinance Institutions share several common characteristics that make them a resilient business and the few MFIs that are listed in stock exchanges seem to have performed better in the financial crisis. Microfinance can be considered as one of the new frontiers of the expansion of the global banking industry. Practical implications: Presently, international for-profit investors have very few ways of investing in microfinance equity. Most of the equity of the MFI equity is funded locally or thanks to the local public sector. The stock exchange listing of the MFIs should drive MFIs towards a more professional management, more transparency and better governance. Social implications: Microfinance Institutions provide credit to microenterprises in poor countries that have no other alternative sources of external capital to expand its activity. If global investors could easily invest in the listed equity of the MFIs these institutions would expand its lending books and would improve its governance, part of the population living in poor areas or with lower income could ameliorate its standard of living. Originality/value: The number of Microfinance Institutions that are professionally run like commercial banks is still scarce and even more scarce are the MFI listed in public stock exchanges. Therefore the published literature on the characteristics and performance of the listed equity of the Microfinance Institutions is extremely reduced. But microfinance assets are rapidly growing and MFIs will need to list their equity in stock exchanges to sustain this expansion.

The determinants of the quality of Sales-Marketing Interface in a Multinational Customer Brand Focused Company: The Latin American Branches

Customer evolution and changes in consumers, determine the fact that the quality of the interface between marketing and sales may represent a true competitive advantage for the firm. Building on multidimensional theoretical and empirical models developed in Europe and on social network analysis, the organizational interface between the marketing and sales departments of a multinational high-growth company with operations in Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay is studied. Both, attitudinal and social network measures of information exchange are used to make operational the nature and quality of the interface and its impact on performance. Results show the existence of a positive relationship of formalization, joint planning, teamwork, trust and information transfer on interface quality, as well as a positive relationship between interface quality and business performance. We conclude that efficient design and organizational management of the exchange network are essential for the successful performance of consumer goods companies that seek to develop distinctive capabilities to adapt to markets that experience vertiginous changes

Rem : a los dos lados del espejo = (Rem at both sides of the mirror)

Cuando se trata de Rem Koolhaas, su espejo no refleja una sola imagen sino múltiples, es un prisma poliédrico. Su espejo nos devuelve el Rem mediático, el intelectual, el conceptualizador, el constructor, el analista, el periodista, el actor... En el caso de esta investigación, fijamos el punto de mira en el Rem COMUNICADOR. “Rem a los dos lados del espejo” se enmarca en una investigación sobre los medios de comunicación de arquitectura, su reflejo en la producción arquitectónica y viceversa. Se trata de llegar a discernir si comunicación y producción arquitectónica colisionan y confluyen en el caso de grandes comunicadores como Rem Koolhaas, si el mensaje y el medio transmisor adquieren las mismas cualidades. Centrándose en la figura de Rem Koolhaas, la tesis aborda la evolución de su faceta comunicativa y las transformaciones sucesivas en el campo de la comunicación arquitectónica, en paralelo a su evolución conceptual a lo largo de su trayectoria. La investigación, por tanto, no se centra tanto en su componente teórica o en la práctica arquitectónica de OMA, sino en la exposición de su producción al mundo, especialmente a través de sus ensayos y libros. “Delirious New York” y “SMLXL” son un reflejo del momento conceptual en que se inscriben, y contienen mucha información sobre los referentes gráficos que irremediablemente han influido en su composición. Especialmente, la aparición de “SMLXL” supuso un revulsivo para el mundo de la comunicación arquitectónica, porque puso el foco sobre la importancia de dejar atrás un discurso narrativo linea y unifocal, para afrontar la comunicación barajando múltiples variables, y aproximaciones, en un proceso similar al desarrollo de un proyecto de arquitectura. Presenta un diseño muy novedoso y una edición extremadamente cuidada, que atiende a parámetros mucho más ambiciosos que los meramente narrativos. Profundiza en la necesidad de una temática global, planteando cuál es la aproximación más apropiada para cada uno de los proyectos que describe, transmitiendo al lector una percepción más allá de lo estrictamente visual, más próximo a lo sensorial. Además, su enorme repercusión a nivel internacional y el gran interés que despertó (no solamente entre los arquitectos, sino también entre diseñadores gráficos, publicistas, personas provenientes de todo tipo de tendencias artísticas y público en general), provocó la globalización del fenómeno de las publicaciones arquitectónicas y puso de manifiesto la importancia de la comunicación como una disciplina en sí misma, dentro de la producción arquitectónica en la era actual. A pesar de la importancia de “SMLXL” a todos los niveles, la presente tesis plantea que, donde realmente se culmina esa experiencia comunicativa, es en “Content”, al incluir nuevos parámetros relacionados con la fusión conceptual de continente y contenido. Es en esta publicación donde el objeto de la comunicación y la expresión de la misma se convierten en un único elemento, que se rige por leyes similares. En este caso, la ley fundamental es la aplicación hasta sus máximas consecuencias de la “cultura de la congestión”, tanto en el mensaje como en el medio, generando lo que hemos convenido en denominar “comunicación congestiva”. Esta concepción deviene en que necesariamente se materialice como un producto efímero, desechable, casi virtual, porque responde a las condiciones de un momento muy concreto y específico y fuera de ese contexto pierde su significación.. La “cultura de la congestión” empieza a surgir en los planteamientos de Koolhaas en la Architectural Association School of Architecture de Londres, bajo la tutela de Elia Zenghelis. Posteriormente se desarrolla en su manifiesto retroactivo sobre Manhattan, “Delirious New York”, donde declara la guerra abierta al urbanismo del movimiento moderno y afirma que la ciudad realmente contemporánea es aquella que es fruto de un desarrollo no planificado, hiperdensa y posible gracias a los avances tecnológicos de su era. Finalmente comienza a materializarse en la Diploma Unit 9 de la AA, donde entra como profesor en 1975, dejando una huella indeleble en las generaciones posteriores de arquitectos que pasaron dicha unidad. Rem Koolhaas es ante todo un intelectual y por ello, todo el constructo teórico sobre la metrópolis comienza a reflejarse en su obra a través de OMA desde el comienzo de su producción. Podemos decir a grandes rasgos que su carrera está marcada por dos hitos históricos fundamentales que determinan tres etapas diferenciadas en su producción. En sus primeros años de profesión, Koolhaas sigue fascinado por la metrópolis urbana y la aplicación del método paranoico crítico a su producción arquitectónica. Es un arquitecto profundamente surrealista. Entiende este método como una estrategia de conocimiento y aproximación al mundo que le rodea: “dejar salir el inconsciente pero sostenerlo con las muletas de la racionalidad”. Pero lo que en realidad le interesa es su aplicación a la gran escala, el “Bigness”, y por ello, participa en proyectos muy ambiciosos de los que surgen conceptos que, más allá de resultar premiados o no, han dejado una huella ideológica en el devenir de la arquitectura. Entre estos proyectos, cabe destacar su propuesta para el Parque de la Villette o la Très Grande Bibliotèque de París. Sus proyectos de esta época destilan una gran carga conceptual, que devienen en unos interiores sorprendentes pero una apariencia exterior sobria o incluso podríamos decir "povera", por el uso de materiales efímeros, poco habituales en la macro-arquitectura hasta ese momento. Súbitamente, en 1997, explotó el denominado “Efecto Bilbao”, de la mano de Frank Gehry (1). El Museo Guggenheim de Bilbao, con su espectacularidad, sus formas pregnantes e imposibles, impacta al mundo. Nace la era de la “Arquitectura del Espectáculo”; la transformación de la ciudad a través de ICONOS que actúen como nodos de atracción y concentración en torno a los cuales supuestamente se revitaliza la actividad económica, cultural y sociopolítica de la ciudad, como si a través de un único gesto se pudieran regenerar todos los tejidos internos de la urbe. Rem Koolhaas comprende rápidamente que la aproximación a la ciudad ha cambiado y, sobre todo, el mercado. En el mundo de la globalización, la única manera de llegar a materializar el “Bigness”, es encerrando sus ejercicios intelectuales en formas pregnantes, bellas, icónicas, espectaculares. Koolhaas encuentra su marca personal en la estética “Stealth”, proveniente de los aviones de combate facetados para evitar los radares, elaborados en los años 80. De esta época surgen proyectos como la Casa da Música de Oporto o la Biblioteca de Seattle; ambos edificios son iconos facetados, de belleza pregnante, que dejan una huella indeleble en la ciudad y provocan, al igual que el Guggenheim, un cierto efecto de recuperación y revitalización en el entorno en que se asientan, al menos de manera temporal. En cualquier caso, Koolhaas nunca abandona los ejercicios meramente teóricos, pero segrega su actividad en dos: OMA produce aquello que tiene vocación de ser construido y se rige por los parámetros del mercado global y AMO, la otra cara del espejo de Rem, aplica el pensamiento arquitectónico a campos no explorados, sin la dependencia de agentes externos, pudiendo permitirse ser un laboratorio puramente experimental. En este escenario, llega el 11 de septiembre de 2001 y el ataque a las Torres Gemelas de Nueva York tiene efectos devastadores a todos los niveles, significando, en un período de tiempo sorprendentemente corto, un cambio en el orden mundial. Rem Koolhaas da entonces un giro de 180 grados, dirige su mirada hacia China, donde entiende que sus aportaciones tienen un beneficio social más directo que en occidente. (2) Para presentar al mundo su nuevo cambio de rumbo y la creación del “Think Tank” AMO, plantea una gran exposición en la NeueGallerie de Berlín bajo el título de “Content”, experiencia paralela a la edición del libro con el mismo título, que inicialmente nace como “catálogo de la exposición, pero que internamente siempre se concibió como el documento más trascendente en el estudio desde “SMLXL”. Sin embargo, en muchos aspectos se trata de su opuesto: una publicación con formato revista, de tapa blanda, con paginado muy fino, formato de "folleto de supermercado" y contenido hiperdenso. Es un experimento efímero, fugaz, ligero, barato, de “usar y tirar”. De hecho, está fuera de stock, ya no se edita. Probablemente Rem Koolhaas desaprobaría que se hiciera una investigación que pusiera el foco sobre el mismo, porque diez años después de su publicación seguramente opine que su vigencia ha caducado. Sin embargo, muestra con una claridad meridiana el estado conceptual y vital de OMA en el momento de su publicación y representa, además un verdadero hito en la comunicación arquitectónica, un punto de no retorno, el máximo exponente de lo que hemos denominado “comunicación congestiva”. La presente tesis plantea que “Content” contiene la esencia de la mayor aportación de Rem Koolhaas al mundo de la arquitectura: la transformación profunda y definitiva de la comunicación arquitectónica mediante la convergencia del estado conceptual y la transmisión del mismo. Su legado arquitectónico y conceptual ha marcado a todas las generaciones posteriores de manera indeleble. Sus ensayos, sus teorías, sus proyectos y sus edificaciones ya pertenecen a la historia de la arquitectura, sin ninguna duda. Pero es su revisión del concepto de la comunicación en arquitectura lo que ha tenido y tendrá un reflejo inmediato en las generaciones futuras, no solamente en la comunicación sino en su arquitectura, a través de un intercambio biyectivo. El planteamiento a futuro sería determinar qué sucede tras “Content”, tras la hiperdensidad máxima, tras la cultura de la congestión visual; qué es lo que propone Koolhaas y qué se va a plantear también en el mundo de la comunicación arquitectónica. Para ello, estudiaremos en profundidad sus últimos proyectos relacionados con la comunicación, como su propuesta para la Biennale de Arquitectura de Venecia de 2014, su intensa investigación sobre el “Metabolismo” en “Project Japan: Metabolism Talks...”, o la dirección de sus últimos planteamientos territoriales. En los últimos tiempos Rem Koolhaas habla de “Preservación”, de “Sobriedad”, de “Esencialismo”, de “Performance”... El autor intelectual de la cultura de la congestión habla ahora de la “low density”...como no podía ser de otra manera en la otra cara del espejo. En definitiva, el color blanco como suma de todos los colores, todas las longitudes de onda del espectro visible recibidas al tiempo. ABSTRACT When talking about Rem Koolhaas, the mirror does not only reflect one but numerous images: it is nothing but a polyhedral prism. His mirror gives us the image of Rem the media celebrity, the intellectual, the conceptualizer, the builder, the analyst, the journalist, the actor... This research sets the spotlight on Rem the COMMUNICATOR. "Rem on both sides of the mirror" belongs to a research on architectural media, its influence on the architectural production and vice versa. It is aimed at getting to discern whether communication and architectural production collide and converge in the case of great communicators such as Rem Koolhaas, and whether the message and transmission media acquire the same features. Focusing on the figure of Rem Koolhaas, this thesis addresses the evolution of his communicative facet and the successive transformations in the field of architectural communication, parallel to the conceptual evolution he underwent throughout his career. Therefore, this research is not so much focused on his theoretical component or on the OMA’s architectural practice, but on the exhibition of his production to the world, especially through his essays and books. "Delirious New York" and "SMLXL" hold up a mirror to the conceptual moment they are part of, and contain a great deal of information about the graphic references that have inevitably influenced his work. Specially, the launch of "SMLXL" was a salutary shock for the architectural communication world, since it set the spotlight on the importance of leaving a linear and unifocal narrative behind in order to face communication considering multiple variables and approaches, based on a process similar to the development of an architectural project. It offers a very innovative design and an extremely careful editing, which deals with parameters much more ambitious than those merely narrative. It explores the need for a global subject and suggests the most appropriate approach for each of the projects described, giving the reader a closer insight to the sensory that goes beyond what’s strictly visual. In addition, its huge international impact and the great interest shown, not only by architects but also by graphic designers, publishers, people from all kinds of artistic trends and the general public, led to the globalisation of the architectural publications phenomenon and brought the importance of communication as a discipline in itself, within the architectural production in the age at hand, to light. Despite the importance of "SMLXL" at all levels, this thesis suggests that the communication experience really culminates in "Content", for it includes new conceptual parameters associated with the container-content conceptual fusion. It is in this book where the purpose of communication and the expression of such become a single element, ruled by similar laws. In this particular case, the fundamental law is to implement the "culture of congestion" to its extreme consequences in both the message and the media, leading to what we have agreed to refer to as "congestive communication”. This concept leads to its inevitable materialisation into an ephemeral, disposable, almost virtual product, because it meets the conditions of a very concrete and specific time, and outside that context it loses its significance. The "culture of congestion" emerged in Koolhaas’ approaches under the guidance of Elia Zenghelis, in the Architectural Association School of Architecture of London. Subsequently, his retroactive manifesto on Manhattan, "Delirious New York" developed it, waging an all-out war against the modern movement urbanism and maintaining that the really contemporary cities are those hyperdense ones that rise as a result of an unplanned development and thanks to the typical technological advances of their time. Finally it began to materialise in the Diploma Unit 9 of the AA, in which he started lecturing in 1975, leaving an indelible mark on subsequent generations of architects who passed that unit. First and foremost, Rem Koolhaas is an intellectual and, therefore, all the theoretical construct in the metropolis began to be reflected in his work through OMA since the beginnings of his production. Broadly speaking, we can say that his career is influenced by two essential historic events, which determine three different stages in his production. In the early years of his career, Koolhaas was still fascinated by the urban metropolis and the implementation of the paranoiac-critical method to his architectural production. He was then a deeply surreal architect. He understood this method as a knowledge strategy and an approach to the world around him: "let the subconscious out but hold it with the crutches of reasonableness”. However, he was actually interested in its implementation on a broad scale, the "Bigness", and therefore, he took part in ambitious projects that led to the accrual of concepts that, beyond being rewarded, left an ideological impression on the evolution of architecture. These projects included his proposal for the Parc de la Villette or the Très Grande Bibliotèque in Paris. The projects he carried out during this period showed a great conceptual background, which evolved into surprising interiors but a sober, or even "povera", exterior appearance, thanks to the use of ephemeral materials that were atypical in the macro-architecture field until that moment. Suddenly, in 1997, the so-called "Bilbao effect" boomed thanks to Frank Gehry (1). The Guggenheim Museum of Bilbao amazed the world with its spectacular nature and its pregnant and impossible shapes. It was the beginning of the era of “The architecture of spectacle”: the transformation of the city through ICONS that would act as nodes of attraction and gathering, around which the economic, cultural and socio-political activity of the city was supposed to be revitalized, as if through a single gesture all internal tissues of the city could be rebuilt. Rem Koolhaas quickly realized that the approach to the city, and especially to the global market, had changed. In the world of globalisation, the only way to get to materialise such "Bigness" was by keeping his intellectual exercises in pregnant, beautiful, iconic and spectacular shapes. Koolhaas found his personal brand in the Stealth aesthetic, resulting from the eighties American combat aircrafts whose shape was faceted in order to avoid radars. Projects such as the Casa da Música in Porto or the Seattle Library date from this period; both buildings are faceted icons of pregnant beauty that left an indelible mark on the city and caused, like the Guggenheim, some degree of recovery and revitalization on the environment in which they were based, at least temporarily. In any case, Koolhaas never gave the merely theoretical exercises up, but he segregated his work in two: OMA produced what was destined to be built and ruled by the parameters of the global market and AMO, Rem’s other side of the mirror, applied the architectural thought in unexplored fields, notwithstanding external agents and being able to work as a purely experimental laboratory. In light of this backdrop, September 11th 2001 came and the attacks on the Twin Towers in New York had devastating effects at all levels, leading to a change in the world order, in a surprisingly short period of time. Rem Koolhaas made a 180° turn directing his vision towards China, where he believed his contributions would have a more direct social benefit than in the Western world. (2) In order to introduce his new course of direction and the creation of the AMO "Think Tank", he planned a major exhibition in the Neue Nationalgalerie of Berlin under the title "Content", in parallel with edition of the book with the same title, which was at first the "exhibition catalog” but, deep down, was always conceived as the most important document of the Office since "SMLXL". However, in many ways it was just the opposite: a publication characterised by its magazine format, soft cover, very fine paging, "supermarket brochure" form and hyperdense content. It was an ephemeral, brief, light, cheap and "disposable" experiment. In fact, it is currently out of stock and out of print. Rem Koolhaas would probably disapprove of a research that sets the spotlight on him, for he would probably say that his validity has expired given that it has been ten years since its publication. However, it shows OMA’s conceptual and vital status at the time of its publication with crystalline clarity and it is also a true milestone in architectural communication. A point of no return. The epitome of the so-called "congestive communication ". This thesis suggests that "Content" contains the essence of Rem Koolhaas’ greatest contribution to the world of architecture: the deep and definitive transformation of architectural communication through the convergence of the conceptual state and the transmission thereof. His architectural and conceptual legacy has left an indelible mark on all subsequent generations. There is no doubt his essays, theories, projects and buildings already belong to the history of architecture. But it is his review on the concept of communication in architecture that has had and shall have an immediate influence on future generations, not only in their communication but also in their architecture, through a bijective exchange. Future approaches should try to determine what happens after "Content", after the maximum hyperdensity, after the visual culture of congestion; what shall Koolhaas suggest as well as what shall happen in the world of architectural communication. To this end, we shall study his latest communication-related projects, such as the design of the Venetian Architecture Biennale in 2014, his intensive research on the "Metabolism" in "Project Japan: Metabolism Talks ...", or the course of his latest territorial approaches in depth. Most recently, Rem Koolhaas has talked about "Preservation", "Sobriety" of "Essentialism", "Performance", etc. The mastermind of the culture of congestion now speaks of the "low density"... as it could not be otherwise, on the other side of the mirror. Summarizing, the white color as the sum of all colors; all wavelengths of the visible spectrum received at the same time.

Explanation of changes in real estate stock market

The aim of this study is to explain the changes in the real estate prices as well as in the real estate stock market prices, using some macro-economic explanatory variables, such as the gross domestic product (GDP), the real interest rate and the unemployment rate. Several regressions have been carried out in order to express some types of incremental and absolute deflated real estate lock market indexes in terms of the macro-economic variables. The analyses are applied to the Swedish economy. The period under study is 1984-1994. Time series on monthly data are used. i.e. the number of data-points is 132. If time leads/lags are introduced in the e regressions, significant improvements in the already high correlations are achieved. The signs of the coefficients for IR, UE and GDP are all what one would expect to see from an economic point of view: those for GDP are all positive, those for both IR and UE are negative. All the regressions have high R2 values. Both markets anticipate change in the unemployment rate by 6 to 9 months, which seems reasonable because such change can be forecast quite reliably. But, on the contrary, there is no reason why they should anticipate by 3-6 months changes in the interest rate that can hardly be reliably forecast so far in advance.