Propuesta metodol��gica para el an��lisis y protecci��n de la calidad del agua subterr��nea de acuerdo con los requerimientos de la Directiva Marco y la Directiva derivada de Aguas Subterr��neas

La protecci��n de las aguas subterr��neas es una prioridad de la pol��tica medioambiental de la UE. Por ello ha establecido un marco de prevenci��n y control de la contaminaci��n, que incluye provisiones para evaluar el estado qu��mico de las aguas y reducir la presencia de contaminantes en ellas. Las herramientas fundamentales para el desarrollo de dichas pol��ticas son la Directiva Marco del Agua y la Directiva Hija de Aguas Subterr��neas. Seg��n ellas, las aguas se consideran en buen estado qu��mico si: ��� la concentraci��n medida o prevista de nitratos no supera los 50 mg/l y la de ingredientes activos de plaguicidas, de sus metabolitos y de los productos de reacci��n no supera el 0,1 ��g/l (0,5 ��g/l para el total de los plaguicidas medidos) ��� la concentraci��n de determinadas sustancias de riesgo es inferior al valor umbral fijado por los Estados miembros; se trata, como m��nimo, del amonio, ars��nico, cadmio, cloruro, plomo, mercurio, sulfatos, tricloroetileno y tetracloroetileno ��� la concentraci��n de cualquier otro contaminante se ajusta a la definici��n de buen estado qu��mico enunciada en el anexo V de la Directiva marco sobre la pol��tica de aguas ��� en caso de superarse el valor correspondiente a una norma de calidad o a un valor umbral, una investigaci��n confirma, entre otros puntos, la falta de riesgo significativo para el medio ambiente. Analizar el comportamiento estad��stico de los datos procedentes de la red de seguimiento y control puede resultar considerablemente complejo, debido al sesgo positivo que suelen presentar dichos datos y a su distribuci��n asim��trica, debido a la existencia de valores an��malos y diferentes tipos de suelos y mezclas de contaminantes. Adem��s, la distribuci��n de determinados componentes en el agua subterr��nea puede presentar concentraciones por debajo del l��mite de detecci��n o no ser estacionaria debida a la existencia de tendencias lineales o estacionales. En el primer caso es necesario realizar estimaciones de esos valores desconocidos, mediante procedimientos que var��an en funci��n del porcentaje de valores por debajo del l��mite de detecci��n y el n��mero de l��mites de detecci��n aplicables. En el segundo caso es necesario eliminar las tendencias de forma previa a la realizaci��n de contrastes de hip��tesis sobre los residuos. Con esta tesis se ha pretendido establecer las bases estad��sticas para el an��lisis riguroso de los datos de las redes de calidad con objeto de realizar la evaluaci��n del estado qu��mico de las masas de agua subterr��nea para la determinaci��n de tendencias al aumento en la concentraci��n de contaminantes y para la detecci��n de empeoramientos significativos, tanto en los casos que se ha fijado un est��ndar de calidad por el organismo medioambiental competente como en aqu��llos que no ha sido as��. Para dise��ar una metodolog��a que permita contemplar la variedad de casos existentes, se han analizado los datos de la Red Oficial de Seguimiento y Control del Estado Qu��mico de las Aguas Subterr��neas del Ministerio de Agricultura, Alimentaci��n y Medio Ambiente (Magrama). A continuaci��n, y dado que los Planes Hidrol��gicos de Cuenca son la herramienta b��sica de las Directivas, se ha seleccionado la Cuenca del J��car, dada su designaci��n como cuenca piloto en la estrategia de implementaci��n com��n (CIS) de la Comisi��n Europea. El objetivo principal de los grupos de trabajo creados para ello se dirigi�� a implementar la Directiva Derivada de Agua Subterr��neas y los elementos de la Directiva Marco del Agua relacionadas, en especial la toma de datos en los puntos de control y la preparaci��n del primer Plan de Gesti��n de Cuencas Hidrogr��ficas. Dada la extensi��n de la zona y con objeto de analizar una masa de agua subterr��nea (definida como la unidad de gesti��n en las Directivas), se ha seleccionado una zona piloto (Plana de Vinaroz Pe��iscola) en la que se han aplicado los procedimientos desarrollados con objeto de determinar el estado qu��mico de dicha masa. Los datos examinados no contienen en general valores de concentraci��n de contaminantes asociados a fuentes puntuales, por lo que para la realizaci��n del estudio se han seleccionado valores de concentraci��n de los datos m��s comunes, es decir, nitratos y cloruros. La estrategia dise��ada combina el an��lisis de tendencias con la elaboraci��n de intervalos de confianza cuando existe un est��ndar de calidad e intervalos de predicci��n cuando no existe o se ha superado dicho est��ndar. De forma an��loga se ha procedido en el caso de los valores por debajo del l��mite de detecci��n, tomando los valores disponibles en la zona piloto de la Plana de Sagunto y simulando diferentes grados de censura con objeto de comparar los resultados obtenidos con los intervalos producidos de los datos reales y verificar de esta forma la eficacia del m��todo. El resultado final es una metodolog��a general que integra los casos existentes y permite definir el estado qu��mico de una masa de agua subterr��nea, verificar la existencia de impactos significativos en la calidad del agua subterr��nea y evaluar la efectividad de los planes de medidas adoptados en el marco del Plan Hidrol��gico de Cuenca. ABSTRACT Groundwater protection is a priority of the EU environmental policy. As a result, it has established a framework for prevention and control of pollution, which includes provisions for assessing the chemical status of waters and reducing the presence of contaminants in it. The measures include: ��� criteria for assessing the chemical status of groundwater bodies ��� criteria for identifying significant upward trends and sustained concentrations of contaminants and define starting points for reversal of such trends ��� preventing and limiting indirect discharges of pollutants as a result of percolation through soil or subsoil. The basic tools for the development of such policies are the Water Framework Directive and Groundwater Daughter Directive. According to them, the groundwater bodies are considered in good status if: ��� measured or predicted concentration of nitrate does not exceed 50 mg / l and the active ingredients of pesticides, their metabolites and reaction products do not exceed 0.1 mg / l (0.5 mg / l for total of pesticides measured) ��� the concentration of certain hazardous substances is below the threshold set by the Member States concerned, at least, of ammonium, arsenic, cadmium, chloride, lead, mercury, sulphates, trichloroethylene and tetrachlorethylene ��� the concentration of other contaminants fits the definition of good chemical status set out in Annex V of the Framework Directive on water policy ��� If the value corresponding to a quality standard or a threshold value is exceeded, an investigation confirms, among other things, the lack of significant risk to the environment. Analyzing the statistical behaviour of the data from the monitoring networks may be considerably complex due to the positive bias which often presents such information and its asymmetrical distribution, due to the existence of outliers and different soil types and mixtures of pollutants. Furthermore, the distribution of certain components in groundwater may have concentrations below the detection limit or may not be stationary due to the existence of linear or seasonal trends. In the first case it is necessary to estimate these unknown values, through procedures that vary according to the percentage of values below the limit of detection and the number of applicable limits of detection. In the second case removing trends is needed before conducting hypothesis tests on residuals. This PhD thesis has intended to establish the statistical basis for the rigorous analysis of data quality networks in order to conduct the evaluation of the chemical status of groundwater bodies for determining upward and sustained trends in pollutant concentrations and for the detection of significant deterioration in cases in which an environmental standard has been set by the relevant environmental agency and those that have not. Aiming to design a comprehensive methodology to include the whole range of cases, data from the Groundwater Official Monitoring and Control Network of the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Environment (Magrama) have been analysed. Then, since River Basin Management Plans are the basic tool of the Directives, the J��car river Basin has been selected. The main reason is its designation as a pilot basin in the common implementation strategy (CIS) of the European Commission. The main objective of the ad hoc working groups is to implement the Daughter Ground Water Directive and elements of the Water Framework Directive related to groundwater, especially the data collection at control stations and the preparation of the first River Basin Management Plan. Given the size of the area and in order to analyze a groundwater body (defined as the management unit in the Directives), Plana de Vinaroz Pe����scola has been selected as pilot area. Procedures developed to determine the chemical status of that body have been then applied. The data examined do not generally contain pollutant concentration values associated with point sources, so for the study concentration values of the most common data, i.e., nitrates and chlorides have been selected. The designed strategy combines trend analysis with the development of confidence intervals when there is a standard of quality and prediction intervals when there is not or the standard has been exceeded. Similarly we have proceeded in the case of values below the detection limit, taking the available values in Plana de Sagunto pilot area and simulating different degrees of censoring in order to compare the results obtained with the intervals achieved from the actual data and verify in this way the effectiveness of the method. The end result is a general methodology that integrates existing cases to define the chemical status of a groundwater body, verify the existence of significant impacts on groundwater quality and evaluate the effectiveness of the action plans adopted in the framework of the River Basin Management Plan.

Aplicaci��n de t��cnicas de inteligencia artificial a la predicci��n de contaminantes atmosf��ricos

Abstract Air pollution is a big threat and a phenomenon that has a specific impact on human health, in addition, changes that occur in the chemical composition of the atmosphere can change the weather and cause acid rain or ozone destruction. Those are phenomena of global importance. The World Health Organization (WHO) considerates air pollution as one of the most important global priorities. Salamanca, Gto., Mexico has been ranked as one of the most polluted cities in this country. The industry of the area led to a major economic development and rapid population growth in the second half of the twentieth century. The impact in the air quality is important and significant efforts have been made to measure the concentrations of pollutants. The main pollution sources are locally based plants in the chemical and power generation sectors. The registered concerning pollutants are Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) and particles on the order of ���10 micrometers or less (PM10). The prediction in the concentration of those pollutants can be a powerful tool in order to take preventive measures such as the reduction of emissions and alerting the affected population. In this PhD thesis we propose a model to predict concentrations of pollutants SO2 and PM10 for each monitoring booth in the Atmospheric Monitoring Network Salamanca (REDMAS - for its spanish acronym). The proposed models consider the use of meteorological variables as factors influencing the concentration of pollutants. The information used along this work is the current real data from REDMAS. In the proposed model, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) combined with clustering algorithms are used. The type of ANN used is the Multilayer Perceptron with a hidden layer, using separate structures for the prediction of each pollutant. The meteorological variables used for prediction were: Wind Direction (WD), wind speed (WS), Temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH). Clustering algorithms, K-means and Fuzzy C-means, are used to find relationships between air pollutants and weather variables under consideration, which are added as input of the RNA. Those relationships provide information to the ANN in order to obtain the prediction of the pollutants. The results of the model proposed in this work are compared with the results of a multivariate linear regression and multilayer perceptron neural network. The evaluation of the prediction is calculated with the mean absolute error, the root mean square error, the correlation coefficient and the index of agreement. The results show the importance of meteorological variables in the prediction of the concentration of the pollutants SO2 and PM10 in the city of Salamanca, Gto., Mexico. The results show that the proposed model perform better than multivariate linear regression and multilayer perceptron neural network. The models implemented for each monitoring booth have the ability to make predictions of air quality that can be used in a system of real-time forecasting and human health impact analysis. Among the main results of the development of this thesis we can cite: A model based on artificial neural network combined with clustering algorithms for prediction with a hour ahead of the concentration of each pollutant (SO2 and PM10) is proposed. A different model was designed for each pollutant and for each of the three monitoring booths of the REDMAS. A model to predict the average of pollutant concentration in the next 24 hours of pollutants SO2 and PM10 is proposed, based on artificial neural network combined with clustering algorithms. Model was designed for each booth of the REDMAS and each pollutant separately. Resumen La contaminaci��n atmosf��rica es una amenaza aguda, constituye un fen��meno que tiene particular incidencia sobre la salud del hombre. Los cambios que se producen en la composici��n qu��mica de la atm��sfera pueden cambiar el clima, producir lluvia ��cida o destruir el ozono, fen��menos todos ellos de una gran importancia global. La Organizaci��n Mundial de la Salud (OMS) considera la contaminaci��n atmosf��rica como una de las m��s importantes prioridades mundiales. Salamanca, Gto., M��xico; ha sido catalogada como una de las ciudades m��s contaminadas en este pa��s. La industria de la zona propici�� un importante desarrollo econ��mico y un crecimiento acelerado de la poblaci��n en la segunda mitad del siglo XX. Las afectaciones en el aire son graves y se han hecho importantes esfuerzos por medir las concentraciones de los contaminantes. Las principales fuentes de contaminaci��n son fuentes fijas como industrias qu��micas y de generaci��n el��ctrica. Los contaminantes que se han registrado como preocupantes son el Bi��xido de Azufre (SO2) y las Part��culas Menores a 10 micr��metros (PM10). La predicci��n de las concentraciones de estos contaminantes puede ser una potente herramienta que permita tomar medidas preventivas como reducci��n de emisiones a la atm��sfera y alertar a la poblaci��n afectada. En la presente tesis doctoral se propone un modelo de predicci��n de concentraci ��n de los contaminantes m��s cr��ticos SO2 y PM10 para cada caseta de monitorizaci��n de la Red de Monitorizaci��n Atmosf��rica de Salamanca (REDMAS). Los modelos propuestos plantean el uso de las variables meteorol ��gicas como factores que influyen en la concentraci��n de los contaminantes. La informaci��n utilizada durante el desarrollo de este trabajo corresponde a datos reales obtenidos de la REDMAS. En el Modelo Propuesto (MP) se aplican Redes Neuronales Artificiales (RNA) combinadas con algoritmos de agrupamiento. La RNA utilizada es el Perceptr��n Multicapa con una capa oculta, utilizando estructuras independientes para la predicci��n de cada contaminante. Las variables meteorol��gicas disponibles para realizar la predicci��n fueron: Direcci��n de Viento (DV), Velocidad de Viento (VV), Temperatura (T) y Humedad Relativa (HR). Los algoritmos de agrupamiento K-means y Fuzzy C-means son utilizados para encontrar relaciones existentes entre los contaminantes atmosf��ricos en estudio y las variables meteorol��gicas. Dichas relaciones aportan informaci��n a las RNA para obtener la predicci��n de los contaminantes, la cual es agregada como entrada de las RNA. Los resultados del modelo propuesto en este trabajo son comparados con los resultados de una Regresi��n Lineal Multivariable (RLM) y un Perceptr��n Multicapa (MLP). La evaluaci��n de la predicci��n se realiza con el Error Medio Absoluto, la Ra��z del Error Cuadr��tico Medio, el coeficiente de correlaci��n y el ��ndice de acuerdo. Los resultados obtenidos muestran la importancia de las variables meteorol��gicas en la predicci��n de la concentraci��n de los contaminantes SO2 y PM10 en la ciudad de Salamanca, Gto., M��xico. Los resultados muestran que el MP predice mejor la concentraci��n de los contaminantes SO2 y PM10 que los modelos RLM y MLP. Los modelos implementados para cada caseta de monitorizaci ��n tienen la capacidad para realizar predicciones de calidad del aire, estos modelos pueden ser implementados en un sistema que permita realizar la predicci��n en tiempo real y analizar el impacto en la salud de la poblaci��n. Entre los principales resultados obtenidos del desarrollo de esta tesis podemos citar: Se propone un modelo basado en una red neuronal artificial combinado con algoritmos de agrupamiento para la predicci��n con una hora de anticipaci ��n de la concentraci��n de cada contaminante (SO2 y PM10). Se dise���� un modelo diferente para cada contaminante y para cada una de las tres casetas de monitorizaci��n de la REDMAS. Se propone un modelo de predicci��n del promedio de la concentraci��n de las pr��ximas 24 horas de los contaminantes SO2 y PM10, basado en una red neuronal artificial combinado con algoritmos de agrupamiento. Se dise���� un modelo para cada caseta de monitorizaci��n de la REDMAS y para cada contaminante por separado.

Study of PM10 and PM2.5 levels in three European cities: Analysis of intra and inter urban variations

In the present paper, 1-year PM10 and PM 2.5 data from roadside and urban background monitoring stations in Athens (Greece), Madrid (Spain) and London (UK) are analysed in relation to other air pollutants (NO,NO2,NOx,CO,O3 and SO2)and several meteorological parameters (wind velocity, temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, solar radiation and atmospheric pressure), in order to investigate the sources and factors affecting particulate pollution in large European cities. Principal component and regression analyses are therefore used to quantify the contribution of both combustion and non-combustion sources to the PM10 and PM 2.5 levels observed. The analysis reveals that the EU legislated PM 10 and PM2.5 limit values are frequently breached, forming a potential public health hazard in the areas studied. The seasonal variability patterns of particulates varies among cities and sites, with Athens and Madrid presenting higher PM10 concentrations during the warm period and suggesting the larger relative contribution of secondary and natural particles during hot and dry days. It is estimated that the contribution of non-combustion sources varies substantially among cities, sites and seasons and ranges between 38-67% and 40-62% in London, 26-50% and 20-62% in Athens, and 31-58% and 33-68% in Madrid, for both PM10 and PM 2.5. Higher contributions from non-combustion sources are found at urban background sites in all three cities, whereas in the traffic sites the seasonal differences are smaller. In addition, the non-combustion fraction of both particle metrics is higher during the warm season at all sites. On the whole, the analysis provides evidence of the substantial impact of non-combustion sources on local air quality in all three cities. While vehicular exhaust emissions carry a large part of the risk posed on human health by particle exposure, it is most likely that mitigation measures designed for their reduction will have a major effect only at traffic sites and additional measures will be necessary for the control of background levels. However, efforts in mitigation strategies should always focus on optimal health effects.

La influencia en el aislamiento ac��sticoa ruido a��reo de los aireadores en las ventanas compactas

En la actualidad, el crecimiento de la poblaci��n urbana, el incremento de la demanda energ��tica junto al desarrollo tecnol��gico impulsado en los ��ltimos veinte a��os han originado un estudio y replanteamiento de los sistemas constructivos empleados. Como consecuencia se han establecido nuevos marcos normativos, marcando nuevos objetivos de confort y de demanda energ��tica. En Espa��a, el C��digo T��cnico de la Edificaci��n (aprobado en el Real Decreto 314/2006 de 17 de Marzo) es el marco normativo que establece las exigencias que se deben cumplir al proyectar construir, usar, mantener y conservar los edificios, incluidas sus instalaciones, con el fin de asegurar la calidad, seguridad y salud del usuario, respetando en todo momento su entorno. Para asegurar el cumplimiento de las exigencias del C��digo T��cnico de la Edificaci��n (CTE), se han elaborado diferentes Documentos B��sicos (DB). Entre ellos est��n los documentos b��sicos DB HR-Protecci��n frente al ruido y el DB HS-Salubridad. En el DB HS 3 Calidad del aire interior, se establecen las condiciones que deben de adoptarse para que los recintos de los edificios se puedan ventilar adecuadamente, eliminando los contaminantes que se produzcan de forma habitual durante un uso normal de los edificios, de forma que se aporte un caudal suficiente de aire exterior y se garantice la extracci��n y expulsi��n del aire viciado por los contaminantes. En el apartado 3.1, Condiciones generales de los sistemas de ventilaci��n, se indica que las viviendas deben disponer de un sistema general de ventilaci��n donde el aire debe circular desde los locales secos a los h��medos. Para ello los comedores, los dormitorios y las salas de estar deben de disponer de aberturas de admisi��n, pudi��ndose resolver esta cuesti��n t��cnica con diversas soluciones. El DB HR Protecci��n frente al ruido del CTE, establece unos valores del aislamiento ac��stico a ruido a��reo, entre un recinto protegido y el exterior, en funci��n del uso del edificio y del nivel sonoro continuo equivalente d��a, Ld de la zona donde se ubique el edificio. El hacer compatibles el cumplimiento de las exigencias de los dos Documentos B��sicos anteriormente citados, origina algunas dificultades en los proyectos de edificaci��n actuales. Los proyectistas tienen que recurrir en la mayor��a de los casos a nuevos sistemas constructivos o duplicaciones de soluciones existentes, evitando la manipulaci��n de los elementos de regulaci��n de entrada de aire en las viviendas. El objetivo fundamental de la Tesis presentada es el estudio de los efectos que producen la colocaci��n de sistemas de aireaci��n permanente en el aislamiento ac��stico a ruido a��reo de las ventanas compactas. Se comprueba la influencia de cada uno de los componentes de la ventana compacta: perfiles, unidades de vidrio, sistema de apertura, caj��n de persiana, persiana, aireadores, etc. en el aislamiento a ruido a��reo del sistema completo. Los ensayos ac��sticos se han realizado mediante dos m��todos: conforme a la norma UNE-EN ISO 10140-2:2011 Medici��n en laboratorio del aislamiento ac��stico al ruido a��reo de los elementos de construcci��n y mediante intensimetr��a ac��stica acorde a la norma UNE-EN ISO 15186-1:2004 Medici��n del aislamiento ac��stico en los edificios y de los elementos de construcci��n utilizando intensidad sonora. Los resultados obtenidos podr��n ser de gran utilidad para todos los profesionales que intervienen en el proceso edificatorio: arquitectos, ingenieros, instaladores, promotores, fabricantes de productos, etc., tanto en la obra nueva como en la rehabilitaci��n. En un futuro, podr��an incorporarse a los Cat��logos y Documentos de Aplicaci��n del CTE, as�� como a los nuevos programas inform��ticos de dise��o y aislamiento ac��stico. Con el conocimiento adquirido y su aplicaci��n, se contribuir�� a la mejora de la calidad de una edificaci��n m��s sostenible y eficiente. Se incrementar�� la productividad y la competitividad de los fabricantes de materiales y sistemas constructivos, aumentando el grado de satisfacci��n del usuario final con el consiguiente aumento de la calidad de vida de los ciudadanos. Tambi��n se ampliar�� el conocimiento t��cnico de este tipo de sistemas y la compatibilidad entre las distintas exigencias marcadas por la normativa. ABSTRACT At present, the urban population growth, the increase of energy demand and the technological development in the last twenty years have led to a rethinking of the used building systems. As a result, new regulatory frameworks have been established, setting new goals of comfort and energy demand. In Spain, the Building Code, C��digo T��cnico de la Edificaci��n (CTE) (RD 314/2006 of March 17th) is the regulatory framework that establishes the requirements to be met by projecting, building, using, maintaining and preserving buildings, including its facilities in order to ensure the quality, safety and health of the user, always respecting the environment. To ensure compliance with the requirements of the CTE, different technical requirements Documentos b��sicos (DB) have been developed. Among them, are the DB-HR-Protection against noise and DB-HS-Health. In the DB-HS- part3, Indoor Air Quality, are set the conditions needed to be taken into consideration so that the building enclosures can be adequately ventilated, eliminating pollutants that occur regularly during normal use of the buildings, so that a sufficient airflow of outdoor is supplied and a removal and extraction of stale air pollutants is guaranteed. In section 3.1, General Terms of ventilation systems, is indicated that dwellings must have a general ventilation system where air can circulate from dry to wet enclosures. For this, dining rooms, bedrooms and living rooms should have air intake, being able to resolve this technical issue with various solutions. The DB-HR Protection against noise, provides sound insulation values of airborne sound transmission between a protected room and the outside, depending on the use of the building and the equivalent continuous sound level day, Ld, in the area where the building is located. Satisfying the requirements of the two requirements mentioned above causes some difficulties in current building project. Designers have to rely in most cases, to new construction elements or duplicate existing solutions, avoiding the manipulation of the air intakes elements. The main objective of this Thesis is the study of the effects of permanent intakes systems in the acoustic insulation against airborne noise transmission in compact windows. The influence of each of the components of the compact window is determined: frames, glass units, opening systems, shutter box, trickle vents, etc. in the airborne sound insulation of the entire system. The acoustic survey were performed using two methods: UNE-EN ISO 10140-2: 2011 Laboratory measurements of sound insulation of building elements and UNE-EN ISO 15186-1:2004 Measurement of sound insulation in buildings and of building elements using sound intensity. The obtained results may be useful for all professionals involved in the building process: architects, engineers, installers, developers, manufacturers, etc. in the new construction developments and in rehabilitation. In the future, it could be added to building catalogues and applications of the Spanish Building Code, as well as to the new design and sound insulation software. With the acquired knowledge and its application, there will be a contribution to improve the quality of a more sustainable and efficient construction. Productivity and competitiveness of manufacturers of building materials and components will improve, increasing the degree of satisfaction of the final user with a consequent increase in the quality of life of citizens. Technical knowledge of such systems and compatibility between the various requirements set by the legislation will also expand.

A methodology to estimate uncertainty for emission projections through sensitivity analysis

Air pollution abatement policies must be based on quantitative information on current and future emissions of pollutants. As emission projections uncertainties are inevitable and traditional statistical treatments of uncertainty are highly time/resources consuming, a simplified methodology for nonstatistical uncertainty estimation based on sensitivity analysis is presented in this work. The methodology was applied to the ���with measures��� scenario for Spain, concretely over the 12 highest emitting sectors regarding greenhouse gas and air pollutants emissions. Examples of methodology application for two important sectors (power plants, and agriculture and livestock) are shown and explained in depth. Uncertainty bands were obtained up to 2020 by modifying the driving factors of the 12 selected sectors and the methodology was tested against a recomputed emission trend in a low economic-growth perspective and official figures for 2010, showing a very good performance. Implications: A solid understanding and quantification of uncertainties related to atmospheric emission inventories and projections provide useful information for policy negotiations. However, as many of those uncertainties are irreducible, there is an interest on how they could be managed in order to derive robust policy conclusions. Taking this into account, a method developed to use sensitivity analysis as a source of information to derive nonstatistical uncertainty bands for emission projections is presented and applied to Spain. This method simplifies uncertainty assessment and allows other countries to take advantage of their sensitivity analyses.

Urban trees and atmospheric pollutants in big cities: Effects in Madrid

Una investigaci��n sobre la mejora de la contaminaci��n del aire (CA) por medio de arbolado urbano se realiz�� en Madrid, una ciudad con casi 4 M de habitantes, 2,8 M de veh��culos y casi 3 M de ��rboles de mantenimiento p��blico. La mayor��a de los ��rboles estaban en dos bosques periurbanos. Los 650.000 restantes era pies de alineaci��n y parques. Los taxones estudiados fueron Platanus orientalis (97.205 ��rboles), Ulmus sp. (70.557), Pinus pinea (49.038), Aesculus hippocastanum (22.266), Cedrus sp. (13.678) y Quercus ilex (1.650), de calles y parques. Muestras foliares se analizaron en diferentes ��pocas del a��o, as�� como datos de contaminaci��n por PM10 de 28 estaciones de medici��n de la contaminaci��n durante 30 a��os, y tambi��n la intensidad del tr��fico (IMD) en 2.660 calles. La acumulaci��n de metales pesados (MP) sobre hojas y dentro de estas se estim�� en relaci��n con la CA y del suelo y la IMD del tr��fico. La concentraci��n media de Ba, Cd, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb y Zn en suelo (materia seca) alcanz��: 489,5, 0,7, 49,4, 60,9, 460,9, 12,8, 155,9 y 190,3 mg kg-1 respectivamente. Los ��rboles urbanos, particularmente con��feras (debido a la mayor CA en invierno) contribuyen significativamente a mejorar la CA sobre todo en calles con alta IMD. La capacidad de las seis sp. para capturar part��culas de polvo en su superficies foliares est�� relacionada con la IMD del tr��fico y se estim�� en 16,8 kg/a��o de MP t��xicos. Pb y Zn resultaron ser buenos marcadores antr��picos en la ciudad en relaci��n con el tr��fico, que fue la principal fuente de contaminaci��n en los ��rboles y suelos de Madrid. Las especies de ��rboles variaron en funci��n de su capacidad para capturar part��culas (dependiendo de las propiedades de sus superficies foliares) y acumular los MP absorbidos de los suelos. Las concentraciones foliares de Pb y Zn estuvieron por encima de los l��mites establecidos en diferentes sitios de la ciudad. La microlocalizaci��n de Zn mediante microsc��pico mostr�� la translocaci��n al xilema y floema. Se detectaron puntos de contaminaci��n puntual de Cu and Cr en antiguos pol��gonos industriales y la distribuci��n espacial de los MP en los suelos de Madrid mostr�� que en incluso en zonas interiores del El Retiro hab��a ciertos niveles elevados de [Pb] en suelo, tal vez por el emplazamiento la Real F��brica de Porcelana en la misma zona hace 200 a��os. Distintas ��reas del centro de la ciudad tambi��n alcanzaron niveles altos de [Pb] en suelo. Seg��n los resultados, el empleo de una combinaci��n de Pinus pinea con un estrato intermedio de Ulmus sp. y Cedrus sp. puede ser la mejor recomendaci��n como filtro verde eficiente. El efecto del ozono (O3) sobre el arbolado en Madrid fue tambi��n objeto de este estudio. A pesar de la reducci��n de precursores aplicada en muchos pa��ses industrializados, O3 sigue siendo la principal causa de CA en el hemisferio norte, con el aumento de [O3] de fondo. Las mayores [O3] se alcanzaron en regiones mediterr��neas, donde el efecto sobre la vegetaci��n natural es compensado por el xeromorfismo y la baja conductancia estom��tica en respuesta los episodios de sequ��a estival caracter��sticos de este clima. Durante una campa��a de monitoreo, se identificaron da��os abi��ticos en hojas de encina parecidos a los de O3 que estaban plantadas en una franja de c��sped con riego del centro de Madrid. Dada la poca evidencia disponible de los s��ntomas de O3 en frondosas perennifolias, se hizo un estudio que trat�� de 1) confirman el diagn��stico de da��o de O3, 2) investigar el grado de los s��ntomas en encinas y 3) analizar los factores ambientales que contribuyeron a los da��os por O3, en particular en lo relacionado con el riego. Se analizaron los marcadores macro y micromorfol��gicos de estr��s por O3, utilizando las mencionadas encinas a modo de parcela experimental. Los s��ntomas consistieron en punteado intercostal del haz, que aument�� con la edad. Adem��s de un punteado subyacente, donde las c��lulas superiores del mes��filo mostraron reacciones caracter��sticas de da��os por O3. Las c��lulas pr��ximas a las zonas da��adas, presentaron marcadores adicionales de estr��s oxidativo. Estos marcadores morfol��gicos y micromorfol��gicos de estr��s por O3 fueron similares a otras frondosas caducifolias con da��os por O3. Sin embargo, en nuestro caso el punteado fue evidente con AOT40 de 21 ppm���h, asociada a riego. An��lisis posteriores mostraron que los ��rboles con riego aumentaron su conductancia estom��tica, con aumento de senescencia, manteni��ndose sin cambios sus caracter��sticas xerom��rficas foliares. Estos hallazgos ponen de relieve el papel primordial de la disponibilidad de agua frente a las caracter��sticas xerom��rficas a la hora de manifestarse los s��ntomas en las c��lulas por da��os de O3 en encina. ABSTRACT Research about air pollution mitigation by urban trees was conducted in Madrid (Spain), a southern European city with almost 4 M inhabitants, 2.8 M daily vehicles and 3 M trees under public maintenance. Most trees were located in two urban forests, while 650'000 trees along urban streets and in parks. The urban taxa included Platanus orientalis (97'205 trees), Ulmus sp. (70���557), Pinus pinea (49'038), Aesculus hippocastanum (22���266), Cedrus sp. (13'678 and Quercus ilex (1'650) along streets and parks. Leave samples were analysed sequentially in different seasons, PM10 data from 28 air monitoring stations during 30 years and traffic density estimated from 2���660 streets. Heavy metal (HM) accumulation on the leaf surface and within leaves was estimated per tree related to air and soil pollution, and traffic intensity. Mean concentration of Ba, Cd, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn in topsoil samples (dry mass) amounted in Madrid: 489.5, 0.7, 49.4, 60.9, 460.9, 12.8, 155.9 and 190.3 mg kg-1 respectively. Urban trees, particularly conifers (due to higher pollution in winter) contributed significantly to alleviate air pollution especially near to high ADT roads. The capacity of the six urban street trees species to capture air-born dust on the foliage surface as related to traffic intensity was estimated to 16.8 kg of noxious metals from exhausts per year. Pb and Zn pointed to be tracers of anthropic activity in the city with vehicle traffic as the main source of diffuse pollution on trees and soils. Tree species differed by their capacity to capture air-borne dust (by different leaf surface properties) and to allocate HM from soils. Pb and Zn concentrations in the foliage were above limits in different urban sites and microscopic Zn revelation showed translocation in xylem and phloem tissue. Punctual contamination in soils by Cu and Cr was identified in former industrial areas and spatial trace element mapping showed for central Retiro Park certain high values of [Pb] in soils even related to a Royal pottery 200 years ago. Different areas in the city centre also reached high levels [Pb] in soils. According to the results, a combination of Pinus pinea with understorey Ulmus sp. and Cedrus sp. layers can be recommended for the best air filter efficiency. The effects of ozone (O3) on trees in different areas of Madrid were also part of this study. Despite abatement programs of precursors implemented in many industrialized countries, ozone remained the main air pollutant throughout the northern hemisphere with background [O3] increasing. Some of the highest ozone concentrations were measured in regions with a Mediterranean climate but the effect on the natural vegetation is alleviated by low stomatal uptake and frequent leaf xeromorphy in response to summer drought episodes characteristic of this climate. During a bioindication survey, abiotic O3-like injury was identified in foliage. Trees were growing on an irrigated lawn strip in the centre of Madrid. Given the little structural evidence available for O3 symptoms in broadleaved evergreen species, a study was undertaken in 2007 with the following objectives 1) confirm the diagnosis, 2) investigate the extent of symptoms in holm oaks growing in Madrid and 3) analyse the environmental factors contributing to O3 injury, particularly, the site water supply. Therefore, macro- and micromorphological markers of O3 stress were analysed, using the aforementioned lawn strip as an intensive study site. Symptoms consisted of adaxial and intercostal stippling increasing with leaf age. Underlying stippling, cells in the upper mesophyll showed HR-like reactions typical of ozone stress. The surrounding cells showed further oxidative stress markers. These morphological and micromorphological markers of ozone stress were similar to those recorded in deciduous broadleaved species. However, stippling became obvious already at an AOT40 of 21 ppm���h and was primarily found at irrigated sites. Subsequent analyses showed that irrigated trees had their stomatal conductance increased and leaf life-span reduced whereas their leaf xeromorphy remained unchanged. These findings suggest a central role of water availability versus leaf xeromorphy for ozone symptom expression by cell injury in holm oak.

Development and implementation of an air quality integrated assessment modelling system for the Iberian Peninsula

La mejora de la calidad del aire es una tarea eminentemente interdisciplinaria. Dada la gran variedad de ciencias y partes involucradas, dicha mejora requiere de herramientas de evaluaci��n simples y completamente integradas. La modelizaci��n para la evaluaci��n integrada (integrated assessment modeling) ha demostrado ser una soluci��n adecuada para la descripci��n de los sistemas de contaminaci��n atmosf��rica puesto que considera cada una de las etapas involucradas: emisiones, qu��mica y dispersi��n atmosf��rica, impactos ambientales asociados y potencial de disminuci��n. Varios modelos de evaluaci��n integrada ya est��n disponibles a escala continental, cubriendo cada una de las etapas antesmencionadas, siendo el modelo GAINS (Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) el m��s reconocido y usado en el contexto europeo de toma de decisiones medioambientales. Sin embargo, el manejo de la calidad del aire a escala nacional/regional dentro del marco de la evaluaci��n integrada es deseable. Esto sin embargo, no se lleva a cabo de manera satisfactoria con modelos a escala europea debido a la falta de resoluci��n espacial o de detalle en los datos auxiliares, principalmente los inventarios de emisi��n y los patrones meteorol��gicos, entre otros. El objetivo de esta tesis es presentar los desarrollos en el dise��o y aplicaci��n de un modelo de evaluaci��n integrada especialmente concebido para Espa��a y Portugal. El modelo AERIS (Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated system for Spain) es capaz de cuantificar perfiles de concentraci��n para varios contaminantes (NO2, SO2, PM10, PM2,5, NH3 y O3), el dep��sito atmosf��rico de especies de azufre y nitr��geno as�� como sus impactos en cultivos, vegetaci��n, ecosistemas y salud como respuesta a cambios porcentuales en las emisiones de sectores relevantes. La versi��n actual de AERIS considera 20 sectores de emisi��n, ya sea equivalentes a sectores individuales SNAP o macrosectores, cuya contribuci��n a los niveles de calidad del aire, dep��sito e impactos han sido modelados a trav��s de matrices fuentereceptor (SRMs). Estas matrices son constantes de proporcionalidad que relacionan cambios en emisiones con diferentes indicadores de calidad del aire y han sido obtenidas a trav��s de parametrizaciones estad��sticas de un modelo de calidad del aire (AQM). Para el caso concreto de AERIS, su modelo de calidad del aire ���de origen��� consisti�� en el modelo WRF para la meteorolog��a y en el modelo CMAQ para los procesos qu��mico-atmosf��ricos. La cuantificaci��n del dep��sito atmosf��rico, de los impactos en ecosistemas, cultivos, vegetaci��n y salud humana se ha realizado siguiendo las metodolog��as est��ndar establecidas bajo los marcos internacionales de negociaci��n, tales como CLRTAP. La estructura de programaci��n est�� basada en MATLAB��, permitiendo gran compatibilidad con software t��pico de escritorio comoMicrosoft Excel�� o ArcGIS��. En relaci��n con los niveles de calidad del aire, AERIS es capaz de proveer datos de media anual y media mensual, as�� como el 19o valor horario m��s alto paraNO2, el 25o valor horario y el 4o valor diario m��s altos para SO2, el 36o valor diario m��s alto para PM10, el 26o valor octohorario m��s alto, SOMO35 y AOT40 para O3. En relaci��n al dep��sito atmosf��rico, el dep��sito acumulado anual por unidad de area de especies de nitr��geno oxidado y reducido al igual que de azufre pueden ser determinados. Cuando los valores anteriormente mencionados se relacionan con caracter��sticas del dominio modelado tales como uso de suelo, cubiertas vegetales y forestales, censos poblacionales o estudios epidemiol��gicos, un gran n��mero de impactos puede ser calculado. Centr��ndose en los impactos a ecosistemas y suelos, AERIS es capaz de estimar las superaciones de cargas cr��ticas y las superaciones medias acumuladas para especies de nitr��geno y azufre. Los da��os a bosques se calculan como una superaci��n de los niveles cr��ticos de NO2 y SO2 establecidos. Adem��s, AERIS es capaz de cuantificar da��os causados por O3 y SO2 en vid, ma��z, patata, arroz, girasol, tabaco, tomate, sand��a y trigo. Los impactos en salud humana han sido modelados como consecuencia de la exposici��n a PM2,5 y O3 y cuantificados como p��rdidas en la esperanza de vida estad��stica e indicadores de mortalidad prematura. La exactitud del modelo de evaluaci��n integrada ha sido contrastada estad��sticamente con los resultados obtenidos por el modelo de calidad del aire convencional, exhibiendo en la mayor��a de los casos un buen nivel de correspondencia. Debido a que la cuantificaci��n de los impactos no es llevada a cabo directamente por el modelo de calidad del aire, un an��lisis de credibilidad ha sido realizado mediante la comparaci��n de los resultados de AERIS con los de GAINS para un escenario de emisiones determinado. El an��lisis revel�� un buen nivel de correspondencia en las medias y en las distribuciones probabil��sticas de los conjuntos de datos. Las pruebas de verificaci��n que fueron aplicadas a AERIS sugieren que los resultados son suficientemente consistentes para ser considerados como razonables y realistas. En conclusi��n, la principal motivaci��n para la creaci��n del modelo fue el producir una herramienta confiable y a la vez simple para el soporte de las partes involucradas en la toma de decisiones, de cara a analizar diferentes escenarios ���y si��� con un bajo coste computacional. La interacci��n con pol��ticos y otros actores dict�� encontrar un compromiso entre la complejidad del modeladomedioambiental con el car��cter conciso de las pol��ticas, siendo esto algo que AERIS refleja en sus estructuras conceptual y computacional. Finalmente, cabe decir que AERIS ha sido creado para su uso exclusivo dentro de un marco de evaluaci��n y de ninguna manera debe ser considerado como un sustituto de los modelos de calidad del aire ordinarios. ABSTRACT Improving air quality is an eminently inter-disciplinary task. The wide variety of sciences and stakeholders that are involved call for having simple yet fully-integrated and reliable evaluation tools available. Integrated AssessmentModeling has proved to be a suitable solution for the description of air pollution systems due to the fact that it considers each of the involved stages: emissions, atmospheric chemistry, dispersion, environmental impacts and abatement potentials. Some integrated assessment models are available at European scale that cover each of the before mentioned stages, being the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model the most recognized and widely-used within a European policy-making context. However, addressing air quality at the national/regional scale under an integrated assessment framework is desirable. To do so, European-scale models do not provide enough spatial resolution or detail in their ancillary data sources, mainly emission inventories and local meteorology patterns as well as associated results. The objective of this dissertation is to present the developments in the design and application of an Integrated Assessment Model especially conceived for Spain and Portugal. The Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated system for Spain (AERIS) is able to quantify concentration profiles for several pollutants (NO2, SO2, PM10, PM2.5, NH3 and O3), the atmospheric deposition of sulfur and nitrogen species and their related impacts on crops, vegetation, ecosystems and health as a response to percentual changes in the emissions of relevant sectors. The current version of AERIS considers 20 emission sectors, either corresponding to individual SNAP sectors or macrosectors, whose contribution to air quality levels, deposition and impacts have been modeled through the use of source-receptor matrices (SRMs). Thesematrices are proportionality constants that relate emission changes with different air quality indicators and have been derived through statistical parameterizations of an air qualitymodeling system (AQM). For the concrete case of AERIS, its parent AQM relied on the WRF model for meteorology and on the CMAQ model for atmospheric chemical processes. The quantification of atmospheric deposition, impacts on ecosystems, crops, vegetation and human health has been carried out following the standard methodologies established under international negotiation frameworks such as CLRTAP. The programming structure isMATLAB �� -based, allowing great compatibility with typical software such as Microsoft Excel �� or ArcGIS �� Regarding air quality levels, AERIS is able to provide mean annual andmean monthly concentration values, as well as the indicators established in Directive 2008/50/EC, namely the 19th highest hourly value for NO2, the 25th highest daily value and the 4th highest hourly value for SO2, the 36th highest daily value of PM10, the 26th highest maximum 8-hour daily value, SOMO35 and AOT40 for O3. Regarding atmospheric deposition, the annual accumulated deposition per unit of area of species of oxidized and reduced nitrogen as well as sulfur can be estimated. When relating the before mentioned values with specific characteristics of the modeling domain such as land use, forest and crops covers, population counts and epidemiological studies, a wide array of impacts can be calculated. When focusing on impacts on ecosystems and soils, AERIS is able to estimate critical load exceedances and accumulated average exceedances for nitrogen and sulfur species. Damage on forests is estimated as an exceedance of established critical levels of NO2 and SO2. Additionally, AERIS is able to quantify damage caused by O3 and SO2 on grapes, maize, potato, rice, sunflower, tobacco, tomato, watermelon and wheat. Impacts on human health aremodeled as a consequence of exposure to PM2.5 and O3 and quantified as losses in statistical life expectancy and premature mortality indicators. The accuracy of the IAM has been tested by statistically contrasting the obtained results with those yielded by the conventional AQM, exhibiting in most cases a good agreement level. Due to the fact that impacts cannot be directly produced by the AQM, a credibility analysis was carried out for the outputs of AERIS for a given emission scenario by comparing them through probability tests against the performance of GAINS for the same scenario. This analysis revealed a good correspondence in the mean behavior and the probabilistic distributions of the datasets. The verification tests that were applied to AERIS suggest that results are consistent enough to be credited as reasonable and realistic. In conclusion, the main reason thatmotivated the creation of this model was to produce a reliable yet simple screening tool that would provide decision and policy making support for different ���what-if��� scenarios at a low computing cost. The interaction with politicians and other stakeholders dictated that reconciling the complexity of modeling with the conciseness of policies should be reflected by AERIS in both, its conceptual and computational structures. It should be noted however, that AERIS has been created under a policy-driven framework and by no means should be considered as a substitute of the ordinary AQM.

An integrated assessment of two decades of air pollution policy making in Spain: Impacts, costs and improvements

This paper analyses the effects of policy making for air pollution abatement in Spain between 2000 and 2020 under an integrated assessment approach with the AERIS model for number of pollutants (NOx/NO2, PM10/PM2.5, O3, SO2, NH3 and VOC). The analysis of the effects of air pollution focused on different aspects: compliance with the European limit values of Directive 2008/50/EC for NO2 and PM10 for the Spanish air quality management areas; the evaluation of impacts caused by the deposition of atmospheric sulphur and nitrogen on ecosystems; the exceedance of critical levels of NO2 and SO2 in forest areas; the analysis of O3-induced crop damage for grapes, maize, potato, rice, tobacco, tomato, watermelon and wheat; health impacts caused by human exposure to O3 and PM2.5; and costs on society due to crop losses (O3), disability-related absence of work staff and damage to buildings and public property due to soot-related soiling (PM2.5). In general, air quality policy making has delivered improvements in air quality levels throughout Spain and has mitigated the severity of the impacts on ecosystems, health and vegetation in 2020 as target year. The findings of this work constitute an appropriate diagnosis for identifying improvement potentials for further mitigation for policy makers and stakeholders in Spain.