A methodology to estimate uncertainty for emission projections through sensitivity analysis

Air pollution abatement policies must be based on quantitative information on current and future emissions of pollutants. As emission projections uncertainties are inevitable and traditional statistical treatments of uncertainty are highly time/resources consuming, a simplified methodology for nonstatistical uncertainty estimation based on sensitivity analysis is presented in this work. The methodology was applied to the “with measures” scenario for Spain, concretely over the 12 highest emitting sectors regarding greenhouse gas and air pollutants emissions. Examples of methodology application for two important sectors (power plants, and agriculture and livestock) are shown and explained in depth. Uncertainty bands were obtained up to 2020 by modifying the driving factors of the 12 selected sectors and the methodology was tested against a recomputed emission trend in a low economic-growth perspective and official figures for 2010, showing a very good performance. Implications: A solid understanding and quantification of uncertainties related to atmospheric emission inventories and projections provide useful information for policy negotiations. However, as many of those uncertainties are irreducible, there is an interest on how they could be managed in order to derive robust policy conclusions. Taking this into account, a method developed to use sensitivity analysis as a source of information to derive nonstatistical uncertainty bands for emission projections is presented and applied to Spain. This method simplifies uncertainty assessment and allows other countries to take advantage of their sensitivity analyses.

Effect of positioning on the accuracy of decision making of association football top-class referees and assistant referees during competitive matches

The aim of this study was to examine the effect of positioning on the correctness of decision making of top-class referees and assistant referees during international games. Match analyses were carried out during the Fe´de´ration Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) Confederations Cup 2009 and 380 foul play incidents and 165 offside situations were examined. The error percentage for the referees when indicating the incidents averaged 14%. The lowest error percentage occurred in the central area of the field, where the collaboration of the assistant referee is limited, and was achieved when indicating the incidents from a distance of 11–15 m, whereas this percentage peaked (23%) in the last 15-min match period. The error rate for the assistant referees was 13%. Distance of the assistant referee to the offside line did not have an impact on the quality of the offside decision. The risk of making incorrect decisions was reduced when the assistant referees viewed the offside situations from an angle between 46 and 608. Incorrect offside decisions occurred twice as often in the second as in the first half of the games. Perceptual-cognitive training sessions specific to the requirements of the game should be implemented in the weekly schedule of football officials to reduce the overall error rate.

On-line breath analysis of volatile organic compounds as a method for colorectal cancer detection

Background: Analysis of exhaled volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in breath is an emerging approach for cancer diagnosis, but little is known about its potential use as a biomarker for colorectal cancer (CRC). We investigated whether a combination of VOCs could distinct CRC patients from healthy volunteers. Methods: In a pilot study, we prospectively analyzed breath exhalations of 38 CRC patient and 43 healthy controls all scheduled for colonoscopy, older than 50 in the average-risk category. The samples were ionized and analyzed using a Secondary ElectroSpray Ionization (SESI) coupled with a Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometer (SESI-MS). After a minimum of 2 hours fasting, volunteers deeply exhaled into the system. Each test requires three soft exhalations and takes less than ten minutes. No breath condensate or collection are required and VOCs masses are detected in real time, also allowing for a spirometric profile to be analyzed along with the VOCs. A new sampling system precludes ambient air from entering the system, so background contamination is reduced by an overall factor of ten. Potential confounding variables from the patient or the environment that could interfere with results were analyzed. Results: 255 VOCs, with masses ranging from 30 to 431 Dalton have been identified in the exhaled breath. Using a classification technique based on the ROC curve for each VOC, a set of 9 biomarkers discriminating the presence of CRC from healthy volunteers was obtained, showing an average recognition rate of 81.94%, a sensitivity of 87.04% and specificity of 76.85%. Conclusions: A combination of cualitative and cuantitative analysis of VOCs in the exhaled breath could be a powerful diagnostic tool for average-risk CRC population. These results should be taken with precaution, as many endogenous or exogenous contaminants could interfere as confounding variables. On-line analysis with SESI-MS is less time-consuming and doesn’t need sample preparation. We are recruiting in a new pilot study including breath cleaning procedures and spirometric analysis incorporated into the postprocessing algorithms, to better control for confounding variables.

Simulation, Design and Analysis of Air-Breathing Combined-Cycle Engines for High Speed Propulsion

Desde la aparición del turborreactor, el motor aeróbico con turbomaquinaria ha demostrado unas prestaciones excepcionales en los regímenes subsónico y supersónico bajo. No obstante, la operación a velocidades superiores requiere sistemas más complejos y pesados, lo cual ha imposibilitado la ejecución de estos conceptos. Los recientes avances tecnológicos, especialmente en materiales ligeros, han restablecido el interés por los motores de ciclo combinado. La simulación numérica de estos nuevos conceptos es esencial para estimar las prestaciones de la planta propulsiva, así como para abordar las dificultades de integración entre célula y motor durante las primeras etapas de diseño. Al mismo tiempo, la evaluación de estos extraordinarios motores requiere una metodología de análisis distinta. La tesis doctoral versa sobre el diseño y el análisis de los mencionados conceptos propulsivos mediante el modelado numérico y la simulación dinámica con herramientas de vanguardia. Las distintas arquitecturas presentadas por los ciclos combinados basados en sendos turborreactor y motor cohete, así como los diversos sistemas comprendidos en cada uno de ellos, hacen necesario establecer una referencia común para su evaluación. Es más, la tendencia actual hacia aeronaves "más eléctricas" requiere una nueva métrica para juzgar la aptitud de un proceso de generación de empuje en el que coexisten diversas formas de energía. A este respecto, la combinación del Primer y Segundo Principios define, en un marco de referencia absoluto, la calidad de la trasferencia de energía entre los diferentes sistemas. Esta idea, que se ha estado empleando desde hace mucho tiempo en el análisis de plantas de potencia terrestres, ha sido extendida para relacionar la misión de la aeronave con la ineficiencia de cada proceso involucrado en la generación de empuje. La metodología se ilustra mediante el estudio del motor de ciclo combinado variable de una aeronave para el crucero a Mach 5. El diseño de un acelerador de ciclo combinado basado en el turborreactor sirve para subrayar la importancia de la integración del motor y la célula. El diseño está limitado por la trayectoria ascensional y el espacio disponible en la aeronave de crucero supersónico. Posteriormente se calculan las prestaciones instaladas de la planta propulsiva en función de la velocidad y la altitud de vuelo y los parámetros de control del motor: relación de compresión, relación aire/combustible y área de garganta. ABSTRACT Since the advent of the turbojet, the air-breathing engine with rotating machinery has demonstrated exceptional performance in the subsonic and low supersonic regimes. However, the operation at higher speeds requires further system complexity and weight, which so far has impeded the realization of these concepts. Recent technology developments, especially in lightweight materials, have restored the interest towards combined-cycle engines. The numerical simulation of these new concepts is essential at the early design stages to compute a first estimate of the engine performance in addition to addressing airframe-engine integration issues. In parallel, a different analysis methodology is required to evaluate these unconventional engines. The doctoral thesis concerns the design and analysis of the aforementioned engine concepts by means of numerical modeling and dynamic simulation with state-of-the-art tools. A common reference is needed to evaluate the different architectures of the turbine and the rocket-based combined-cycle engines as well as the various systems within each one of them. Furthermore, the actual trend towards more electric aircraft necessitates a common metric to judge the suitability of a thrust generation process where different forms of energy coexist. In line with this, the combination of the First and the Second Laws yields the quality of the energy being transferred between the systems on an absolute reference frame. This idea, which has been since long applied to the analysis of on-ground power plants, was extended here to relate the aircraft mission with the inefficiency of every process related to the thrust generation. The methodology is illustrated with the study of a variable- combined-cycle engine for a Mach 5 cruise aircraft. The design of a turbine-based combined-cycle booster serves to highlight the importance of the engine-airframe integration. The design is constrained by the ascent trajectory and the allocated space in the supersonic cruise aircraft. The installed performance of the propulsive plant is then computed as a function of the flight speed and altitude and the engine control parameters: pressure ratio, air-to-fuel ratio and throat area.

Air quality modeling and mortality impact of fine particles reduction policies in Spain

Background: In recent years, Spain has implemented a number of air quality control measures that are expected to lead to a future reduction in fine particle concentrations and an ensuing positive impact on public health. Objectives: We aimed to assess the impact on mortality attributable to a reduction in fine particle levels in Spain in 2014 in relation to the estimated level for 2007. Methods: To estimate exposure, we constructed fine particle distribution models for Spain for 2007 (reference scenario) and 2014 (projected scenario) with a spatial resolution of 16x16 km2. In a second step, we used the concentration-response functions proposed by cohort studies carried out in Europe (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects and Rome longitudinal cohort) and North America (American Cancer Society cohort, Harvard Six Cities study and Canadian national cohort) to calculate the number of attributable annual deaths corresponding to all causes, all non-accidental causes, ischemic heart disease and lung cancer among persons aged over 25 years (2005-2007 mortality rate data). We examined the effect of the Spanish demographic shift in our analysis using 2007 and 2012 population figures. Results: Our model suggested that there would be a mean overall reduction in fine particle levels of 1mg/m3 by 2014. Taking into account 2007 population data, between 8 and 15 all-cause deaths per 100,000 population could be postponed annually by the expected reduction in fine particle levels. For specific subgroups, estimates varied from 10 to 30 deaths for all non-accidental causes, from 1 to 5 for lung cancer, and from 2 to 6 for ischemic heart disease. The expected burden of preventable mortality would be even higher in the future due to the Spanish population growth. Taking into account the population older than 30 years in 2012, the absolute mortality impact estimate would increase approximately by 18%. Conclusions: Effective implementation of air quality measures in Spain, in a scenario with a short-term projection, would amount to an appreciable decline infine particle concentrations, and this, in turn, would lead to notable health-related benefits. Recent European cohort studies strengthen the evidence of an association between long-term exposure to fine particles and health effects, and could enhance the health impact quantification in Europe. Air quality models can contribute to improved assessment of air pollution health impact estimates, particularly in study areas without air pollution monitoring data.

Measurement of plasma electron density generated in an experiment of laser shock processing, utilizing the H­α­-line

In this work we have realized plasma diagnosis produced by Laser (LPP), by means of emission spectroscopy in a Laser Shock Processing (LSP). The LSP has been proposed as an alternative technology, competitive with classical surface treatments. The ionic species present in the plasma together with electron density and its temperature provide significant indicators of the degree of surface effect of the treated material. In order to analyze these indicators, we have realized spectroscopic studies of optical emission in the laser-generated plasmas in different situations. We have worked focusing on an aluminum sample (Al2024) in air and/or in LSP conditions (water flow) a Q-switched laser of Nd:YAG (λ = 1.06 μm, 10 ns of pulse duration, running at 10 Hz repetition rate). The pulse energy was set at 2,5 J per pulse. The electron density has been measured using, in every case, the Stark broadening of H Balmer α line (656.27 nm). In the case of the air, this measure has been contrasted with the value obtained with the line of 281.62 nm of Al II. Special attention has been paid to the self-absorption of the spectral lines used. The measures were realized with different delay times after the pulse of the laser (1–8 μs) and with a time window of 1 μs. In LSP the electron density obtained was between 1017 cm−3 for the shortest delays (4–6 μs), and 1016 cm−3 for the greatest delays (7,8 μs).

Operational short term health impact assessment of air pollution modelling system over Europe

The last decade, scientific studies have indicated an association between air pollution to which people are exposed and wide range of adverse health outcomes. We have developed a tool which is based on a model (MM5-CMAQ) running over Europe with 50 km spatial resolution, based on EMEP annual emissions, to produce a short-term forecast of the impact on health. In order to estimate the mortality change (forecasted for the next 24 hours) we have chosen a log-linear (Poisson) regression form to estimate the concentration-response function. The parameters involved in the C-R function have been estimated based on epidemiological studies, which have been published. Finally, we have derived the relationship between concentration change and mortality change from the C-R function which is the final health impact function.

Orden y naturaleza en la escuela al aire libre : el colegio para la Institución Teresiana en Alicante de Rafael de la Hoz y Gerardo Olivares

"No son necesarios imponentes edificios para dar una buena educación a los niños, mucho menos en zonas de clima suave. En el pasado Filósofos y Santos acostumbraban a sentarse con sus discípulos a la sombra de un árbol, transmitiéndoles su sabiduría sin necesidad de edificaciones de hormigón armado. Pero eran grandes hombres y grandes espíritus que sabían aprovechar el universo entero como material didáctico junto a los simples recursos de su inteligencia y su fantasía". Esta tesis nace con la intención de profundizar en la investigación de los mecanismos arquitectónicos que hicieron posible en un determinado tipo de escuelas la relación entre arquitectura y naturaleza, ya se entienda ésta como paisaje natural o como paisaje artificial creado ex novo. Si desde los tiempos de Lao Tse no había sido superada su definición de Arquitectura: “Arquitectura no son cuatro paredes y un tejado, arquitectura es el ordenamiento de los espacios y el espíritu que se genera dentro”; en realidad dicha definición adolecía de una gran carencia, pues nada decía del “espacio que queda fuera”. Así lo puso de manifiesto D. Rafael de La Hoz Arderius en su discurso de ingreso a la Real Academia de San Fernando5. Hubo que esperar al inicio del siglo XX para que la Arquitectura occidental se centrara de lleno en desmaterializar el límite entre el espacio construido y el “sitio” en el que se inserta, convirtiendo éste en “lugar” habitado. El “dentro” y el “fuera” dejan de entenderse como dos realidades antagónicas para dejar paso a un espacio continuo articulado a través de fructíferas situaciones intermedias. Sin embargo, poco se ha estudiado sobre una tipología arquitectónica : la escuela al aire libre, que fue crucial en la génesis tanto de los espacios educativos, como en la conformación del espacio Moderno así entendido. Éste es por tanto el objeto de la presente Tesis, desde una doble vertiente: por un lado desde la investigación de la evolución de esta tipología en general, y más detenidamente de un caso concreto, el colegio de las Teresianas en Alicante de Rafael de La Hoz Arderius y Gerardo Olivares James. La evolución de la escuela al aire libre se aborda a través de una selección de casos de estudio que ilustran que la regeneración social que pretendía acometerse no podía limitarse sólo a los aspectos higiénicos que centraron su primera etapa, sino que era necesario también reforzar el espíritu comunitario del niño como futuro ciudadano. Por otro lado el Colegio de las Teresianas en Alicante (1964) de Rafael de La Hoz Arderius y Gerardo Olivares James se ha elegido como caso de estudio específico. Este proyecto, siendo uno de los más desconocidos de sus autores, supone la culminación de sus investigaciones en torno a la escuela al aire libre8. Rafael de La Hoz, en línea con los postulados humanistas del Realismo Biológico de Richard Neutra, advertía de la imposibilidad de abordar la ordenación del espacio si desconocemos el proceso perceptivo del ser humano, destinatario de la Arquitectura. Esta dificultad es aún mayor si cabe cuando el destinatario no es el ser humano adulto sino el niño, dada su distinta percepción del binomio “espacio-tiempo”. En este sentido el colegio de las Teresianas en Alicante es además un ejemplo cercano, el único de los incluidos en la presente Tesis del que verdaderamente se ha podido tener un conocimiento profundo tanto por el resultado de su análisis a partir de una investigación de carácter científico, como por la experiencia personal del mismo vivida desde niña, al ser antigua alumna del centro. Tanto en este ejemplo concreto como en el resto de casos analizados la metodología para lograr la educación integral del individuo, reproduciendo el mito de la caverna de Platón revisado a través del Emilio roussoniano, se fundamenta en el contacto directo con el exterior, promoviendo un nuevo modo de vida equilibrado y en armonía con la naturaleza, con uno mismo y con los demás. Desde un primer estadio en el que el espacio exterior sustituye literalmente al aula como lugar para la enseñanza, se evoluciona hacia una tipología más compleja en la que los mecanismos de proyecto habrán de fomentar la continuidad entre interior y exterior en los espacios de aprendizaje, así como reproducir en el interior del aula las ventajas del ambiente exterior evitando algunos de sus inconvenientes. Todo ello con diferentes matices según la edad del alumno y la climatología del lugar. A partir del análisis de los casos de estudio generales y del ejemplo concreto de las Teresianas, se pretende sintetizar cuales fueron los mecanismos de proyecto y los principales temas de reflexión que caracterizaron este tipo de escuelas. ABSTRACT "Imposing buildings are not necessary for children to receive a good education, even less in mild climate areas. In the past, Philosophers and Saints used to sit with their disciples in the shade of a tree, passing on their wisdom without the need of reinforced concrete buildings. But they were great men and great minds who could take advantage of the entire universe as a source of teaching material, together with their intelligence and fantasy." This thesis was undertaken with the purpose of carrying out an in depth analysis of the architectural strategies targeting certain types of schools which have a close relationship between architecture and nature. It is said that since the time of Lao Tzu his definition of architecture had not been surpassed: “architecture is not just four walls and a roof, architecture is the arrangement of the spaces and the spirit that is generated within”. But this definition suffered from a serious lack as the “space left outside” is not mentioned. This was exposed by Rafael de La Hoz Arderius in his speech of entry into the Royal Academy of San Fernando10. It was not until the early twentieth century that Western architecture would squarely focus on dematerializing the boundary between the built environment and the “site” in which it is inserted, turning it into an inhabited “place”. The “inside” and the “outside” are no longer understood as two op-posed realities, instead they make way for a continuous space articulated through fruitful in-between situations. However, little has been studied about an architectural typology: the open air school, which was a turning point in the genesis of both educational, as well as modern space. This is therefore the object of this thesis, having two perspectives. On the one hand the development of this type of school is broadly investigated; on the other hand a specific case is introduced: the school of the Teresian association of Alicante, by Rafael de La Hoz and Gerardo Olivares. The development of the open air school is approached through a selection of case studies. These illustrate that the expected social regeneration could not be limited exclusively by the hygienic aspects targeting its first stage, but it was also necessary to strengthen the community spirit of the child as a future citizen. As previously mentioned the Teresian school of Alicante (1964-1966), has been chosen as a specific case study. Despite being quite a bit less renowned than other projects by the same authors, it represents the culmination of their researches about the open air school. In line with the humanist postulates of Richard Neutra’s Biological Realism, Rafael de La Hoz warned about the inability to deal with the arrangement of space if we are unaware of the perceptive process of the human being, addressee of the architecture. This difficulty becomes greater when the addressee is not the adult human but the child, given his different perception of the binomial “space-time” relationship. In this respect the Teresian school of Alicante is in addition a closely related case study, being the only one of the mentioned cases in this thesis allowing to acquire a deep knowledge, both from the results of its analysis coming from a research of scientific nature, as well as the personal experience lived since I was a child, given that I am a former pupil. Both in this case study and in the other analyzed cases, the methodology implemented to achieve the integral education of the individual is based on the direct contact with the exterior, promoting a balanced and in harmony with nature new way of life, including oneself and the others. Thereby it replicates the Plato’s cavern myth and its roussonian review: Emilio. From the first stage in which the exterior literally substitutes the classroom as the educational space, it is evolved towards a more complex typology in which the project strategies have to promote the continuity between inside and outside learning spaces, as well as to reproduce inside the classroom the advantages of the exterior environment avoiding some of its disadvantages; thereto considering the differing matrixes involving the pupil age and the local climatology. From the analysis of the general case studies and the Teresian school, the main project strategies and elements characterizing the open air school have been synthesized.