8 resultados para Age-dependent Branching Processes with Immigration at Zero State
em Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
Resumo:
This paper presents a methodology for the incorporation of a Virtual Reality development applied to the teaching of manufacturing processes, namely the group of machining processes in numerical control of machine tools. The paper shows how it is possible to supplement the teaching practice through virtual machine-tools whose operation is similar to the 'real' machines while eliminating the risks of use for both users and the machines.
Resumo:
One of the biggest challenges in speech synthesis is the production of contextually-appropriate naturally sounding synthetic voices. This means that a Text-To-Speech system must be able to analyze a text beyond the sentence limits in order to select, or even modulate, the speaking style according to a broader context. Our current architecture is based on a two-step approach: text genre identification and speaking style synthesis according to the detected discourse genre. For the final implementation, a set of four genres and their corresponding speaking styles were considered: broadcast news, live sport commentaries, interviews and political speeches. In the final TTS evaluation, the four speaking styles were transplanted to the neutral voices of other speakers not included in the training database. When the transplanted styles were compared to the neutral voices, transplantation was significantly preferred and the similarity to the target speaker was as high as 78%.
Resumo:
Radiative shock waves play a pivotal role in the transport energy into the stellar medium. This fact has led to many efforts to scale the astrophysical phenomena to accessible laboratory conditions and their study has been highlighted as an area requiring further experimental investigations. Low density material with high atomic mass is suitable to achieve radiative regime, and, therefore, low density xenon gas is commonly used for the medium in which the radiative shocks such as radiative blast waves propagate. In this work, by means of collisional-radiative steady-state calculations, a characterization and an analysis of microscopic magnitudes of laboratory blast waves launched in xenon clusters are made. Thus, for example, the average ionization, the charge state distribution, the cooling time or photon mean free paths are studied. Furthermore, for a particular experiment, the effects of the self-absorption and self-emission in the specific intensity emitted by the shock front and that is going through the radiative precursor are investigated. Finally, for that experiment, since the electron temperature is not measured experimentally, an estimation of this magnitude is made both for the shock shell and the radiative precursor.
Resumo:
A coupled elastoplastic-damage constitutive model with Lode angle dependent failure criterion for high strain and ballistic applications is presented. A Lode angle dependent function is added to the equivalent plastic strain to failure definition of the Johnson–Cook failure criterion. The weakening in the elastic law and in the Johnson–Cook-like constitutive relation implicitly introduces the Lode angle dependency in the elastoplastic behaviour. The material model is calibrated for precipitation hardened Inconel 718 nickel-base superalloy. The combination of a Lode angle dependent failure criterion with weakened constitutive equations is proven to predict fracture patterns of the mechanical tests performed and provide reliable results. Additionally, the mesh size dependency on the prediction of the fracture patterns was studied, showing that was crucial to predict such patterns
Resumo:
A total of 72 eggs from a group of 100 white laying hens housed in standard cages were analyzed. Thirty-six eggs were retired when the hens had 44 week of age and the other 36 eggs were retired eight weeks afterwards. Each group of 36 eggs was radomly divided in three groups of 12 eggs. First group was analyzed at once (storage system C); second one was kept during one week in the refrigerator (5ºC) (storage system R), and third group were kept also one week but on ambient temperature (25ºC) (storage system ET). The hen age, egg weight and storage system had not significant (P>0.05) effect on shell thickness. The specific gravity (SG) has a positive relation with shell quality. The egg class and storage system significantly (P<0,05) affected to SG, while no influence of bird age on this variable was observed. The yolk color increased with hen age but storage system had not effect on this variable. The increase of the hen age and the R and AT storage systems significantly (P<0.05) reduced albumen height (H) and the interaction hen age x storage system was significant (P<0.025) for this variable. The reduction of the H due to R and ET storage systems was higher in the eggs from hens with 52 weeks of age than in those from hens with 44 weeks of age. The Haugh units (HU) was significantly (P<0.05) affected by hen age, egg class and storage system. The hen age increase reduced HU and the R and ET eggs had lower HU than C eggs. It is concluded that the bird age and storage system with high temperatures reduced the egg quality.
Resumo:
Down syndrome (DS) is the most frequent genetic cause of mental retardation. Cognitive dysfunction in these patients is correlated with reduced dendritic branching and complexity, along with fewer spines of abnormal shape that characterize the cortical neuronal profile of DS. DS phenotypes are caused by the disruptive effect of specific trisomic genes. Here, we report that overexpression of dual-specificity tyrosine phosphorylation-regulated kinase 1A, DYRK1A, is sufficient to produce the dendritic alterations observed in DS patients. Engineered changes in Dyrk1A gene dosage in vivo strongly alter the postnatal dendritic arborization processes with a similar progression than in humans. In cultured mammalian cortical neurons, we determined a reduction of neurite outgrowth and synaptogenesis. The mechanism underlying neurite dysgenesia involves changes in the dynamic reorganization of the cytoskeleton.
Resumo:
Desde el año 2004 el código ARWEN ha sido utilizado con éxito para simular y diseñar experimentos relacionados con blancos para fusión por confinamiento inercial [146], astrofísica de laboratorio [145], plasmas como amplificadores de láseres de rayos X [107] o plasmas creados por láser para la medición de espectros de transmisión. Para la realización de estas simulaciones es necesario, además de métodos de alto orden precisos y que presenten buenas propiedades conservativas, conocer ciertas propiedades de los plasmas. En el caso de la fluidodinámica y la conducción electrónica necesitaremos conocer la ecuación de estado [94, 49, 36], y para el transporte de la radiación será preciso disponer de los datos de absorción y emisión [104, 95, 40]. Hasta el año 2009 ARWEN dependía de códigos externos para la generación de estas tablas de opacidad, careciendo de control sobre los métodos empleados para su generación. Además estos códigos asumían equilibrio local termodinámico (LTE), limitando su validez a rangos de alta densidad y baja temperatura. En el marco de esta tesis se ha desarrollado el código BIGBART para la generación de tablas detalladas de opacidad y emisividad para su uso en el módulo de transporte de radiación. De esta forma el grupo dispondrá de su propia herramienta de generación de propiedades radiativas. El código desarrollado es capaz de tratar plasmas en estado fuera de equilibrio (non-LTE) mediante el modelo colisional-radiativo, extendiendo así el rango de validez de las tablas generadas. El trabajo desarrollado para implementar un código LTE/non-LTE estacionario es el siguiente Cálculo de estructura y datos atómicos. Se ha acoplado en código FAC a BIGBART, incorporando la capacidad para generar potenciales atómicos para una configuración y el cálculo de funciones de onda de electrones en orbitales ligados y libres. Aproximaciones y métodos para la obtención de tasas y secciones eficaces de procesos. Se han incluido y programado los modelos implementados en FAC para el cálculo de secciones eficaces de fotoionización, y tasas de decaimiento de emisión espontánea y autoionización. Además se ha incluido el modelo Plane-Wave Born (PWBA) para el cálculo de las secciones eficaces de ionización y excitación colisional. Modelos para la obtención de la distribución de estados iónicos dentro del plasma. Se ha programado un solver LTE basado en la ecuación de Saha-Boltzmann con efectos de ionización por presión debida a los iones adyacentes. También se ha implementado un modelo non-LTE colisionalradiativo para la resolución del sistema de ecuaciones que nos permite obtener la densidad de estados iónicos fuera de equilibrio. Modelo non-LTE RADIOM. Se ha implementado el modelo RADIOM para aproximar efectos de no-equilibrio mediante cálculos LTE a una temperatura equivalente, menor o igual que la temperatura electrónica real. Cálculo de las propiedades espectrales de absorción y emisión. Se han implementado los modelos para el cálculo de los perfiles espectrales de absorción y emisión para procesos entre niveles ligados, ligado-libre y librelibre. Aprovechando el trabajo realizado en este sentido, durante el transcurso de esta tesis se amplió el código BIGBART para tratar problemas con dependencia temporal. La extensión para tratar este tipo de problemas se orientó a la simulación numérica de la interacción de láseres ultra intensos en el rango XUV/rayos X. Para ello, además de adaptar el modelo non-LTE colisionalradiativo se incluyeron procesos adicionales asociados a la interacción de la materia con fotones altamente energéticos. También se han incluido modelos para el cálculo de las propiedades ópticas, y por ende las propiedades dieléctricas de la materia irradiada, de gran interés en algunas aplicaciones novedosas de estos láseres intensos. Debido a la naturaleza fuertemente fuera de equilibrio en la interacción de fotones de alta energía con la materia, se incluyó el tratamiento de la distribución de electrones libres fuera de equilibrio en la aproximación de Fokker-Planck, tanto para condiciones degeneradas como no degeneradas. El trabajo desarrollado en el código non-LTE con dependencia temporal es el siguiente Procesos asociados a láseres intensos XUV/rayos X. Se ha implementado el cálculo de procesos radiativos estimulados de absorción y emisión por el láser. También se han incluido procesos asociados a la creación de vacantes en capas internas electrónicas (Shake), además de doble autoionización y doble fotoionización. Cálculo de propiedades ópticas y dieléctricas en blancos sólidos. Se ha implementado un modelo para la absorción por bremsstrahlung inverso en blancos en estado sólido. Con el coeficiente de extinción debido a procesos de fotoabsorción resonante, fotoionización y bremsstrahlung inverso se obtiene el ´ındice de refracción mediante la relación de Kronig-Kramers. Electrones fuera de equilibrio. Se ha tratado la evolución de la distribución de electrones, cuando no está justificado asumir que es Maxwelliana o de Fermi-Dirac, mediante la aproximación de Fokker-Planck para la colisión entre electrones libres. En la resolución de la ecuación de Fokker-Planck se han incluido los procesos inelásticos por colisiones con iones y términos fuente por interacción con el láser y otros procesos. ABSTRACT Since 2004 the ARWEN code has been successfully used to simulate and design targets for inertial confinement fusion experiments [146], laboratory astrophysics [145], plasmas as X-ray lasers amplifiers [107] or laser created plasmas for measuring transmission spectra. To perform these simulations it is necessary, in addition to high order precise methods with good conservative properties, to know certain properties of plasmas. For fluid dynamic and electronic conduction we need to know the equation of state [94, 49, 36], and for radiation transport it will be necessary to have the data of the absorption and emission [104, 95, 40]. Until 2009 ARWEN depended on external codes to generate these opacity tables, lacking of control over the methods used for their generation. Besides, these codes assumed local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE), limiting their validity ranges to high densities and low temperatures. As part of this thesis it has been developed the BIGBART code for generating detailed opacity and emissivity tables for use in the radiation transport module. This group will have its own tool for the generation of radiative properties. The developed code is capable of treating plasmas out of equilibrium (non-LTE) by means of a collisional-radiative model, extending the range of validity of the generated tables. The work to implement an LTE/non-LTE steady-state code is as follows Calculation of structure and atomic data. the FAC code was coupled to BIGBART, incorporating the ability to generate atomic potentials for calculating configuration wave functions for bound and free electrons. Approaches and methods for obtaining cross sections and processes rates. We have included and reprogrammed in Fortran the models implemented in FAC for calculation of photoionization cross sections and decay rates of spontaneous emission and autoionization. We also included the Plane- Wave Born (PWBA) model to calculate the cross sections of ionization and collisional excitation. Models for the obtention of the distribution of ionic states within the plasma. We programmed a LTE solver based on the Saha-Boltzmann equation with pressure ionization effects due to adjacent ions. It has also been implemented a non-LTE collisional-radiative model for solving the system of equations that allows us to obtain the density of ionic states out of equilibrium. Non-LTE RADIOM model. We have implemented the non-LTE RADIOM model to approximate non-equilibrium effects with LTE data at an equivalent temperature, lower or equal to the actual electronic temperature. Calculation of the spectral absorption and emission properties. Models have been implemented for the calculation of the spectral profiles of absorption and emission processes between bound levels, free-bound and free-free. Taking advantage of the work done in this direction throughout the course of this thesis the code BIGBART was extended to treat time-dependent problems. The extension to treat such problems is oriented to the numerical simulation of the interaction of ultra intense lasers in the XUV/X-ray range. For this range, in addition to adapting the non-LTE collisional-radiative model, additional processes associated with the interaction of matter with high energy photons. We also included models for calculation of the optical properties, and therefore the dielectric properties of the irradiated material, of great interest in some novel applications of these intense lasers. Due to the strong non-equilibrium nature of the interaction of high energy photons with matter, we included the treatment of the distribution of free electrons out of equilibrium in the Fokker-Planck approximation for both degenerate and non-degenerate conditions. The work in the non-LTE time-dependent code is as follows Processes associated with intense XUV/X-ray lasers. We have implemented the calculation of stimulated radiative processes in absorption and emission. Also we included processes associated with the creation of electronic vacancies in inner shells (Shake), double autoionization and double photoionization. Calculation of optical and dielectric properties in solid targets. We have implemented a model for inverse bremsstrahlung absorption in solid targets. With the extinction coefficient from resonant photoabsorption, photoionization and inverse bremsstrahlung the refractive index is obtained by the Kramers-Kronig relation. Electrons out of equilibrium. We treat the evolution of the electron distribution, when it is not justified to assume a Maxwellian or Fermi-Dirac distribution, by the Fokker-Planck approximation for collisions between electrons. When solving the Fokker-Planck equation we included inelastic collision processes with ions and source terms by interaction with the laser and other processes.
Resumo:
La presente investigación tiene como objetivo principal diseñar un Modelo de Gestión de Riesgos Operacionales (MGRO) según las Directrices de los Acuerdos II y III del Comité de Supervisión Bancaria de Basilea del Banco de Pagos Internacionales (CSBB-BPI). Se considera importante realizar un estudio sobre este tema dado que son los riesgos operacionales (OpR) los responsables en gran medida de las últimas crisis financieras mundiales y por la dificultad para detectarlos en las organizaciones. Se ha planteado un modelo de gestión subdividido en dos vías de influencias. La primera acoge el paradigma holístico en el que se considera que hay múltiples maneras de percibir un proceso cíclico, así como las herramientas para observar, conocer y entender el objeto o sujeto percibido. La segunda vía la representa el paradigma totalizante, en el que se obtienen datos tanto cualitativos como cuantitativos, los cuales son complementarios entre si. Por otra parte, este trabajo plantea el diseño de un programa informático de OpR Cualitativo, que ha sido diseñado para determinar la raíz de los riesgos en las organizaciones y su Valor en Riesgo Operacional (OpVaR) basado en el método del indicador básico. Aplicando el ciclo holístico al caso de estudio, se obtuvo el siguiente diseño de investigación: no experimental, univariable, transversal descriptiva, contemporánea, retrospectiva, de fuente mixta, cualitativa (fenomenológica y etnográfica) y cuantitativa (descriptiva y analítica). La toma de decisiones y recolección de información se realizó en dos fases en la unidad de estudio. En la primera se tomó en cuenta la totalidad de la empresa Corpoelec-EDELCA, en la que se presentó un universo estadístico de 4271 personas, una población de 2390 personas y una unidad de muestreo de 87 personas. Se repitió el proceso en una segunda fase, para la Central Hidroeléctrica Simón Bolívar, y se determinó un segundo universo estadístico de 300 trabajadores, una población de 191 personas y una muestra de 58 profesionales. Como fuentes de recolección de información se utilizaron fuentes primarias y secundarias. Para recabar la información primaria se realizaron observaciones directas, dos encuestas para detectar las áreas y procesos con mayor nivel de riesgos y se diseñó un cuestionario combinado con otra encuesta (ad hoc) para establecer las estimaciones de frecuencia y severidad de pérdidas operacionales. La información de fuentes secundarias se extrajo de las bases de datos de Corpoelec-EDELCA, de la IEA, del Banco Mundial, del CSBB-BPI, de la UPM y de la UC at Berkeley, entre otras. Se establecieron las distribuciones de frecuencia y de severidad de pérdidas operacionales como las variables independientes y el OpVaR como la variable dependiente. No se realizó ningún tipo de seguimiento o control a las variables bajo análisis, ya que se consideraron estas para un instante especifico y solo se determinan con la finalidad de establecer la existencia y valoración puntual de los OpR en la unidad de estudio. El análisis cualitativo planteado en el MGRO, permitió detectar que en la unidad de investigación, el 67% de los OpR detectados provienen de dos fuentes principales: procesos (32%) y eventos externos (35%). Adicionalmente, la validación del MGRO en Corpoelec-EDELCA, permitió detectar que el 63% de los OpR en la organización provienen de tres categorías principales, siendo los fraudes externos los presentes con mayor regularidad y severidad de pérdidas en la organización. La exposición al riesgo se determinó fundamentándose en la adaptación del concepto de OpVaR que generalmente se utiliza para series temporales y que en el caso de estudio presenta la primicia de aplicarlo a datos cualitativos transformados con la escala Likert. La posibilidad de utilizar distribuciones de probabilidad típicas para datos cuantitativos en distribuciones de frecuencia y severidad de pérdidas con datos de origen cualitativo fueron analizadas. Para el 64% de los OpR estudiados se obtuvo que la frecuencia tiene un comportamiento semejante al de la distribución de probabilidad de Poisson y en un 55% de los casos para la severidad de pérdidas se obtuvo a las log-normal como las distribuciones de probabilidad más comunes, con lo que se concluyó que los enfoques sugeridos por el BCBS-BIS para series de tiempo son aplicables a los datos cualitativos. Obtenidas las distribuciones de frecuencia y severidad de pérdidas, se convolucionaron estas implementando el método de Montecarlo, con lo que se obtuvieron los enfoques de distribuciones de pérdidas (LDA) para cada uno de los OpR. El OpVaR se dedujo como lo sugiere el CSBB-BPI del percentil 99,9 o 99% de cada una de las LDA, obteniéndose que los OpR presentan un comportamiento similar al sistema financiero, resultando como los de mayor peligrosidad los que se ubican con baja frecuencia y alto impacto, por su dificultad para ser detectados y monitoreados. Finalmente, se considera que el MGRO permitirá a los agentes del mercado y sus grupos de interés conocer con efectividad, fiabilidad y eficiencia el status de sus entidades, lo que reducirá la incertidumbre de sus inversiones y les permitirá establecer una nueva cultura de gestión en sus organizaciones. ABSTRACT This research has as main objective the design of a Model for Operational Risk Management (MORM) according to the guidelines of Accords II and III of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision of the Bank for International Settlements (BCBS- BIS). It is considered important to conduct a study on this issue since operational risks (OpR) are largely responsible for the recent world financial crisis and due to the difficulty in detecting them in organizations. A management model has been designed which is divided into two way of influences. The first supports the holistic paradigm in which it is considered that there are multiple ways of perceiving a cyclical process and contains the tools to observe, know and understand the subject or object perceived. The second way is the totalizing paradigm, in which both qualitative and quantitative data are obtained, which are complementary to each other. Moreover, this paper presents the design of qualitative OpR software which is designed to determine the root of risks in organizations and their Operational Value at Risk (OpVaR) based on the basic indicator approach. Applying the holistic cycle to the case study, the following research design was obtained: non- experimental, univariate, descriptive cross-sectional, contemporary, retrospective, mixed-source, qualitative (phenomenological and ethnographic) and quantitative (descriptive and analytical). Decision making and data collection was conducted in two phases in the study unit. The first took into account the totality of the Corpoelec-EDELCA company, which presented a statistical universe of 4271 individuals, a population of 2390 individuals and a sampling unit of 87 individuals. The process was repeated in a second phase to the Simon Bolivar Hydroelectric Power Plant, and a second statistical universe of 300 workers, a population of 191 people and a sample of 58 professionals was determined. As sources of information gathering primary and secondary sources were used. To obtain the primary information direct observations were conducted and two surveys to identify the areas and processes with higher risks were designed. A questionnaire was combined with an ad hoc survey to establish estimates of frequency and severity of operational losses was also considered. The secondary information was extracted from the databases of Corpoelec-EDELCA, IEA, the World Bank, the BCBS-BIS, UPM and UC at Berkeley, among others. The operational loss frequency distributions and the operational loss severity distributions were established as the independent variables and OpVaR as the dependent variable. No monitoring or control of the variables under analysis was performed, as these were considered for a specific time and are determined only for the purpose of establishing the existence and timely assessment of the OpR in the study unit. Qualitative analysis raised in the MORM made it possible to detect that in the research unit, 67% of detected OpR come from two main sources: external processes (32%) and external events (35%). Additionally, validation of the MORM in Corpoelec-EDELCA, enabled to estimate that 63% of OpR in the organization come from three main categories, with external fraud being present more regularly and greater severity of losses in the organization. Risk exposure is determined basing on adapting the concept of OpVaR generally used for time series and in the case study it presents the advantage of applying it to qualitative data transformed with the Likert scale. The possibility of using typical probability distributions for quantitative data in loss frequency and loss severity distributions with data of qualitative origin were analyzed. For the 64% of OpR studied it was found that the frequency has a similar behavior to that of the Poisson probability distribution and 55% of the cases for loss severity it was found that the log-normal were the most common probability distributions. It was concluded that the approach suggested by the BCBS-BIS for time series can be applied to qualitative data. Once obtained the distributions of loss frequency and severity have been obtained they were subjected to convolution implementing the Monte Carlo method. Thus the loss distribution approaches (LDA) were obtained for each of the OpR. The OpVaR was derived as suggested by the BCBS-BIS 99.9 percentile or 99% of each of the LDA. It was determined that the OpR exhibits a similar behavior to the financial system, being the most dangerous those with low frequency and high impact for their difficulty in being detected and monitored. Finally, it is considered that the MORM will allows market players and their stakeholders to know with effectiveness, efficiency and reliability the status of their entities, which will reduce the uncertainty of their investments and enable them to establish a new management culture in their organizations.