A Methodological model to assist the optimization and risk management of mining investment decisions

Identifying, quantifying, and minimizing technical risks associated with investment decisions is a key challenge for mineral industry decision makers and investors. However, risk analysis in most bankable mine feasibility studies are based on the stochastic modelling of project “Net Present Value” (NPV)which, in most cases, fails to provide decision makers with a truly comprehensive analysis of risks associated with technical and management uncertainty and, as a result, are of little use for risk management and project optimization. This paper presents a value-chain risk management approach where project risk is evaluated for each step of the project lifecycle, from exploration to mine closure, and risk management is performed as a part of a stepwise value-added optimization process.

Detection and Isolation of Simultaneous Additive and Parametric Faults in Nonlinear Stochastic Dynamical Systems

This paper presents a new fault detection and isolation scheme for dealing with simultaneous additive and parametric faults. The new design integrates a system for additive fault detection based on Castillo and Zufiria, 2009 and a new parametric fault detection and isolation scheme inspired in Munz and Zufiria, 2008 . It is shown that the so far existing schemes do not behave correctly when both additive and parametric faults occur simultaneously; to solve the problem a new integrated scheme is proposed. Computer simulation results are presented to confirm the theoretical studies.

Preference intensity in MCDM when an additive utility function represents DM preferences

We propose a new method for ranking alternatives in multicriteria decision-making problems when there is imprecision concerning the alternative performances, component utility functions and weights. We assume decision maker?s preferences are represented by an additive multiattribute utility function, in which weights can be modeled by independent normal variables, fuzzy numbers, value intervals or by an ordinal relation. The approaches are based on dominance measures or exploring the weight space in order to describe which ratings would make each alternative the preferred one. On the one hand, the approaches based on dominance measures compute the minimum utility difference among pairs of alternatives. Then, they compute a measure by which to rank the alternatives. On the other hand, the approaches based on exploring the weight space compute confidence factors describing the reliability of the analysis. These methods are compared using Monte Carlo simulation.

Dominance intensity methods for ranking of alternatives in mcdm with imprecise information

Los decisores cada vez se enfrentan a problemas más complejos en los que tomar una decisión implica tener que considerar simultáneamente muchos criterios que normalmente son conflictivos entre sí. En la mayoría de los problemas de decisión es necesario considerar criterios económicos, sociales y medioambientales. La Teoría de la Decisión proporciona el marco adecuado para poder ayudar a los decisores a resolver estos problemas de decisión complejos, al permitir considerar conjuntamente la incertidumbre existente sobre las consecuencias de cada alternativa en los diferentes atributos y la imprecisión sobre las preferencias de los decisores. En esta tesis doctoral nos centramos en la imprecisión de las preferencias de los decisores cuando éstas pueden ser representadas mediante una función de utilidad multiatributo aditiva. Por lo tanto, consideramos imprecisión tanto en los pesos como en las funciones de utilidad componentes de cada atributo. Se ha considerado el caso en que la imprecisión puede ser representada por intervalos de valores o bien mediante información ordinal, en lugar de proporcionar valores concretos. En este sentido, hemos propuesto métodos que permiten ordenar las diferentes alternativas basados en los conceptos de intensidad de dominación o intensidad de preferencia, los cuales intentan medir la fuerza con la que cada alternativa es preferida al resto. Para todos los métodos propuestos se ha analizado su comportamiento y se ha comparado con los más relevantes existentes en la literatura científica que pueden ser aplicados para resolver este tipo de problemas. Para ello, se ha realizado un estudio de simulación en el que se han usado dos medidas de eficiencia (hit ratio y coeficiente de correlación de Kendall) para comparar los diferentes métodos. ABSTRACT Decision makers increasingly face complex decision-making problems where they have to simultaneously consider many often conflicting criteria. In most decision-making problems it is necessary to consider economic, social and environmental criteria. Decision making theory provides an adequate framework for helping decision makers to make complex decisions where they can jointly consider the uncertainty about the performance of each alternative for each attribute, and the imprecision of the decision maker's preferences. In this PhD thesis we focus on the imprecision of the decision maker's preferences represented by an additive multiattribute utility function. Therefore, we consider the imprecision of weights, as well as of component utility functions for each attribute. We consider the case in which the imprecision is represented by ranges of values or by ordinal information rather than precise values. In this respect, we propose methods for ranking alternatives based on notions of dominance intensity, also known as preference intensity, which attempt to measure how much more preferred each alternative is to the others. The performance of the propose methods has been analyzed and compared against the leading existing methods that are applicable to this type of problem. For this purpose, we conducted a simulation study using two efficiency measures (hit ratio and Kendall correlation coefficient) to compare the different methods.

Rapid prototyping of multi-scale biomedical microdevices by combining additive manufacturing technologies

The possibility of designing and manufacturing biomedical microdevices with multiple length-scale geometries can help to promote special interactions both with their environment and with surrounding biological systems. These interactions aim to enhance biocompatibility and overall performance by using biomimetic approaches. In this paper, we present a design and manufacturing procedure for obtaining multi-scale biomedical microsystems based on the combination of two additive manufacturing processes: a conventional laser writer to manufacture the overall device structure, and a direct-laser writer based on two-photon polymerization to yield finer details. The process excels for its versatility, accuracy and manufacturing speed and allows for the manufacture of microsystems and implants with overall sizes up to several millimeters and with details down to sub-micrometric structures. As an application example we have focused on manufacturing a biomedical microsystem to analyze the impact of microtextured surfaces on cell motility. This process yielded a relevant increase in precision and manufacturing speed when compared with more conventional rapid prototyping procedures.

Impact of High-Speed Rail on Tourists' Decisions: Evidence from a Survey Conducted in Paris and in Madrid

The analysis of how tourists select their holiday destinations along with the factors that determine their choices is very important for promoting tourism. In particular, transportation is supposed to have influence on tourists? decissions. The objective of this paper is to investigate more especifically the role of High Speed Rail (HSR) in this choice. Two key tourist destinations in Europe, Paris and Madrid, have been chosen to understand the factors influencing this choice. On the basis of a survey conducted to tourists, we found out that some aspects such as the presence of architectural sites, the quality of promotion of the destination itself, and cultural and social events, have an impact on their choice. However the presence of the HSR system affects the choice of Paris and Madrid as a touristic destination in a different way. For Paris, TGV is considered a real transport mode alternative among tourists who use it quite often. On the other hand, Madrid is chosen by tourists irrespective of the presence of an efficient HSR network. Data collected from the two surveys have been used for a further quantitative analysis. Regression models have been specified and parameters have been calibrated to identify the factors influencing holidaymakers to revisit Paris and Madrid and visit other touristic spots accesible from HSR from these cities.

Ku band waveguide diplexer design for satellite communication. Implementation by additive manufacturing and experimental characterization

Gran cantidad de servicios de telecomunicación tales como la distribución de televisión o los sistemas de navegación están basados en comunicaciones por satélite. Del mismo modo que ocurre en otras aplicaciones espaciales, existe una serie de recursos clave severamente limitados, tales como la masa o el volumen. En este sentido, uno de los dispositivos pasivos más importantes es el diplexor del sistema de alimentación de la antena. Este dispositivo permite el uso de una única antena tanto para transmitir como para recibir, con la consiguiente optimización de recursos que eso supone. El objetivo principal de este trabajo es diseñar un diplexor que cumpla especificaciones reales de comunicaciones por satélite. El dispositivo consiste en dos estructuras filtrantes unidas por una bifurcación de tres puertas. Además, es imprescindible utilizar tecnología de guía de onda para su implementación debido a los altos niveles de potencia manejados. El diseño del diplexor se lleva a cabo dividiendo la estructura en diversas partes, con el objetivo de que todo el proceso sea factible y eficiente. En primer lugar, se han desarrollado filtros con diferentes respuestas – paso alto, paso bajo y paso banda – aunque únicamente dos de ellos formarán el diplexor. Al afrontar su diseño inicial, se lleva a cabo un proceso de síntesis teórica utilizando modelos circuitales. A continuación, los filtros se optimizan con técnicas de diseño asistido por ordenador (CAD) full-wave, en concreto mode matching. En este punto es esencial analizar las estructuras y su simetría para determinar qué modos electromagnéticos se están propagando realmente por los dispositivos, para así reducir el esfuerzo computacional asociado. Por último, se utiliza el Método de los Elementos Finitos (FEM) para verificar los resultados previamente obtenidos. Una vez que el diseño de los filtros está terminado, se calculan las dimensiones correspondientes a la bifurcación. Finalmente, el diplexor al completo se somete a un proceso de optimización para cumplir las especificaciones eléctricas requeridas. Además, este trabajo presenta un novedoso valor añadido: la implementación física y la caracterización experimental tanto del diplexor como de los filtros por separado. Esta posibilidad, impracticable hasta ahora debido a su elevado coste, se deriva del desarrollo de las técnicas de manufacturación aditiva. Los prototipos se imprimen en plástico (PLA) utilizando una impresora 3D de bajo coste y posteriormente se metalizan. El uso de esta tecnología conlleva dos limitaciones: la precisión de las dimensiones geométricas (±0.2 mm) y la conductividad de la pintura metálica que recubre las paredes internas de las guías de onda. En este trabajo se incluye una comparación entre los valores medidos y simulados, así como un análisis de los resultados experimentales. En resumen, este trabajo presenta un proceso real de ingeniería: el problema de diseñar un dispositivo que satisfaga especificaciones reales, las limitaciones causadas por el proceso de fabricación, la posterior caracterización experimental y la obtención de conclusiones.

Optimization of water procurement decisions in an irrigation district: the role of option contracts

Water supply instability is one of the main risks faced by irrigation districts and farmers. Water procurement decision optimisation is essential in order to increase supply reliability and reduce costs. Water markets, such as spot purchases or water supply option contracts, can make this decision process more flexible. We analyse the potential interest in an option contract for an irrigation district that has access to several water sources. We apply a stochastic recursive mathematical programming model to simulate the water procurement decisions of an irrigation district?s board operating in a context of water supply uncertainty in south-eastern Spain. We analyse what role different option contracts could play in securing its water supply. Results suggest that the irrigation district would be willing to accept the proposed option contract in most cases subject to realistic values of the option contract financial terms. Of nine different water sources, desalination and the option contract are the main substitutes, where the use of either depends on the contract parameters. The contract premium and optioned volume are the variables that have a greater impact on the irrigation district?s decisions. Key words: Segura Basin, stochastic recursive programming, water markets, water supply option contract, water supply risk.