Impact attribution models to evaluate drought effects: economic impacts, risk analyses and management strategies in Spain and Chile

La sequía es un fenómeno natural que se origina por el descenso de las precipitaciones con respecto a una media, y que resulta en la disponibilidad insuficiente de agua para alguna actividad. La creciente presión que se ha venido ejerciendo sobre los recursos hídricos ha hecho que los impactos de la sequía se hayan visto agravados a la vez que ha desencadenado situaciones de escasez de agua en muchas partes del planeta. Los países con clima mediterráneo son especialmente vulnerables a las sequías, y, su crecimiento económico dependiente del agua da lugar a impactos importantes. Para reducir los impactos de la sequía es necesaria una reducción de la vulnerabilidad a las sequías que viene dada por una gestión más eficiente y por una mejor preparación. Para ello es muy importante disponer de información acerca de los impactos y el alcance de este fenómeno natural. Esta investigación trata de abarcar el tema de los impactos de las sequías, de manera que plantea todos los tipos de impactos que pueden darse y además compara sus efectos en dos países (España y Chile). Para ello se proponen modelos de atribución de impactos que sean capaces de medir las pérdidas económicas causadas por la falta de agua. Los modelos propuestos tienen una base econométrica en la que se incluyen variables clave a la hora de evaluar los impactos como es una variable relacionada con la disponibilidad de agua, y otras de otra naturaleza para distinguir los efectos causados por otras fuentes de variación. Estos modelos se adaptan según la fase del estudio en la que nos encontremos. En primer lugar se miden los impactos directos sobre el regadío y se introduce en el modelo un factor de aleatoriedad para evaluar el riesgo económico de sequía. Esto se hace a dos niveles geográficos (provincial y de Unidad de Demanda Agraria) y además en el último se introduce no solo el riesgo de oferta sino también el riesgo de demanda de agua. La introducción de la perspectiva de riesgo en el modelo da lugar a una herramienta de gestión del riesgo económico que puede ser utilizada para estrategias de planificación. Más adelante una extensión del modelo econométrico se desarrolla para medir los impactos en el sector agrario (impactos directos sobre el regadío y el secano e impactos indirectos sobre la Agro Industria) para ello se adapta el modelo y se calculan elasticidades concatenadas entre la falta de agua y los impactos secundarios. Por último se plantea un modelo econométrico para el caso de estudio en Chile y se evalúa el impacto de las sequías debidas al fenómeno de La Niña. iv Los resultados en general muestran el valor que brinda el conocimiento más preciso acerca de los impactos, ya que en muchas ocasiones se tiende a sobreestimar los daños realmente producidos por la falta de agua. Los impactos indirectos de la sequía confirman su alcance a la vez que son amortiguados a medida que nos acercamos al ámbito macroeconómico. En el caso de Chile, su diferente gestión muestra el papel que juegan el fenómeno de El Niño y La Niña sobre los precios de los principales cultivos del país y sobre el crecimiento del sector. Para reducir las pérdidas y su alcance se deben plantear más medidas de mitigación que centren su esfuerzo en una gestión eficiente del recurso. Además la prevención debe jugar un papel muy importante para reducir los riesgos que pueden sufrirse ante situaciones de escasez. ABSTRACT Drought is a natural phenomenon that originates by the decrease in rainfall in comparison to the average, and that results in water shortages for some activities. The increasing pressure on water resources has augmented the impact of droughts just as water scarcity has become an additional problem in many parts of the planet. Countries with Mediterranean climate are especially vulnerable to drought, and its waterdependent economic growth leads to significant impacts. To reduce the negative impacts it is necessary to deal with drought vulnerability, and to achieve this objective a more efficient management is needed. The availability of information about the impacts and the scope of droughts become highly important. This research attempts to encompass the issue of drought impacts, and therefore it characterizes all impact types that may occur and also compares its effects in two different countries (Spain and Chile). Impact attribution models are proposed in order to measure the economic losses caused by the lack of water. The proposed models are based on econometric approaches and they include key variables for measuring the impacts. Variables related to water availability, crop prices or time trends are included to be able to distinguish the effects caused by any of the possible sources. These models are adapted for each of the parts of the study. First, the direct impacts on irrigation are measured and a source of variability is introduced into the model to assess the economic risk of drought. This is performed at two geographic levels provincial and Agricultural Demand Unit. In the latter, not only the supply risk is considered but also the water demand risk side. The introduction of the risk perspective into the model results in a risk management tool that can be used for planning strategies. Then an extension of the econometric model is developed to measure the impacts on the agricultural sector (direct impacts on irrigated and rainfed productions and indirect impacts on the Agri-food Industry). For this aim the model is adapted and concatenated elasticities between the lack of water and the impacts are estimated. Finally an econometric model is proposed for the Chilean case study to evaluate the impact of droughts, especially caused by El Niño Southern Oscillation. The overall results show the value of knowing better about the precise impacts that often tend to be overestimated. The models allow for measuring accurate impacts due to the lack of water. Indirect impacts of drought confirm their scope while they confirm also its dilution as we approach the macroeconomic variables. In the case of Chile, different management strategies of the country show the role of ENSO phenomena on main crop prices and on economic trends. More mitigation measures focused on efficient resource management are necessary to reduce drought losses. Besides prevention must play an important role to reduce the risks that may be suffered due to shortages.

Influence of new integrated pest management strategies on aphidophagous predators in horticultural crops

El 1 de enero de 2014 entró en vigor la Directiva Europea 2009/128/CE sobre uso sostenible de plaguicidas y el Real Decreto 1311/2012 por el cual se traspone dicha normativa comunitaria al ámbito nacional. Estos reglamentos establecen el marco legal por el que las explotaciones agrícolas deben cumplir los principios generales de la Gestión Integrada de Plagas (GIP). Los principios de la GIP dan preferencia a aquellos métodos de control que sean sostenibles y respetuosos con el medio ambiente, dando prioridad al control biológico, al físico y a otros de carácter no químico. Sin embargo, el uso de insecticidas selectivos con los enemigos naturales es necesario en ocasiones para el adecuado manejo de las plagas en cultivos hortícolas. Por ello, el objetivo general de esta Tesis ha sido aportar conocimientos para la mejora del control de plagas en cultivos hortícolas, mediante la integración de estrategias de lucha biológica, física y química. La primera de las líneas de investigación de esta Tesis se centró en el estudio del efecto de la presencia dos depredadores, larvas Chrysoperla carnea y adultos de Adalia bipunctata, en la dispersión del virus de transmisión no persistente Cucumber mosaic virus (CMV) y del virus de transmisión persistente Cucurbit aphid-borne yellows virus (CABYV), transmitidos por el pulgón Aphis gosypii en cultivo de pepino. La tasa de transmisión de CMV fue baja para los dos tiempos de evaluación ensayados (1 y 5 días), debido al limitado movimiento de su vector A. gossypii. Las plantas que resultaron infectadas se localizaron próximas a la fuente de inóculo central y la presencia de ambos enemigos naturales no incrementó significativamente el porcentaje de plantas ocupadas por pulgones ni la tasa de transmisión de CMV. Los patrones de distribución de A. gossypii y de CMV tan solo fueron coincidentes en las proximidades de la planta central infectada en la que se liberaron los insectos. En los ensayos con CABYV, la presencia de C. carnea y de A. bipunctata respectivamente provocó un incremento significativo de la dispersión de A. gossypii tras 14 días, pero no tras 7 días desde la liberación de los insectos. La reducción en el número inicial de pulgones en la planta central infectada con CABYV fue siempre mayor tras la liberación de C. carnea en comparación con A. bipunctata. Sin embargo, la tasa de transmisión de CABYV y su distribución espacial no se vieron significativamente modificadas por la presencia de ninguno de los depredadores, ni tras 7 días ni tras 14 días desde el inicio de los ensayos. Al igual que se estudió el efecto de la presencia de enemigos naturales en el comportamiento de las plagas y en la epidemiología de las virosis que transmiten, en una segunda línea de investigación se evaluó el posible efecto del consumo de pulgones portadores de virus por parte de los enemigos naturales. Este trabajo se llevó a cabo en el Laboratorio de Ecotoxicología del Departamento de Entomología de la Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA) (Brasil). En él se evaluó la influencia en los parámetros biológicos del enemigo natural Chrysoperla externa al alimentarse de Myzus persicae contaminados con el virus de transmisión persistente Potato leafroll virus (PLRV). El consumo de M. persicae contaminados con PLRV incrementó significativamente la duración de la fase larvaria, reduciendo también la supervivencia en comparación a otras dos dietas a base de M. persicae no contaminados con el virus y huevos del lepidóptero Ephestia kuehniella. La duración de la fase de pupa de C. externa no difirió significativamente entre las dietas a base de pulgones contaminados con PLRV y pulgones no contaminados, pero ambas fueron menores que con la dieta con huevos de E. kuehniella. Sin embargo, ni la supervivencia en la fase de pupa ni los parámetros reproductivos de los adultos emergidos mostraron diferencias significativas entre las dietas evaluadas. Por el contrario, la supervivencia de los adultos durante los 30 primeros días desde su emergencia sí se vio significativamente afectada por la dieta, siendo al término de este periodo del 54% para aquellos adultos de C. externa que durante su fase larvaria consumieron pulgones con PLRV. Dentro de la GIP, una de las estrategias de carácter físico que se emplean para el control de plagas y enfermedades en cultivos hortícolas protegidos es el uso de plásticos con propiedades fotoselectivas de absorción de la radiación ultravioleta (UV). Por ello, la tercera línea de investigación de la Tesis se centró en el estudio de los efectos directos e indirectos (mediados por la planta) de condiciones especiales de baja radiación UV sobre el crecimiento poblacional del pulgón A. gossypii y los parámetros biológicos del enemigo natural C. carnea, así como sobre las plantas de pepino en las que se liberaron los insectos. Los ensayos se realizaron en jaulones dentro de invernadero, utilizándose en el primero de ellos plantas de pepino sanas, mientras que en el segundo las plantas de pepino fueron previamente infectadas con CABYV para estudiar de qué manera afectaba la incidencia del virus en las mismas condiciones. Las condiciones de baja radiación UV (bajo plástico Térmico Antivirus®) ejercieron un efecto directo en las fases iniciales del cultivo de pepino, promoviendo su crecimiento, mientras que en fases más avanzadas del cultivo indujeron un aumento en el contenido en nitrógeno de las plantas. Las plantas de pepino que fueron sometidas a mayor intensidad de radiación UV (bajo plástico Térmico Blanco®) al inicio del cultivo mostraron un engrosamiento significativo de las paredes de las células epidérmicas del haz de las hojas, así como de la cutícula. El uso del plástico Térmico Antivirus®, utilizado como barrera fotoselectiva para crear condiciones de baja radiación UV, no alteró con respecto al plástico Térmico Blanco® (utilizado como control) el desarrollo poblacional del pulgón A. gossypii ni los parámetros biológicos evaluados en el depredador C. carnea. En el segundo experimento, realizado con plantas infectadas con CABYV, la incidencia de la virosis enmascaró las diferencias encontradas en experimento con plantas sanas, reduciendo aparentemente la influencia de las distintas condiciones de radiación UV. Por último, para el desarrollo de las estrategias de GIP es importante estudiar los posibles efectos secundarios que los plaguicidas pueden tener en los enemigos naturales de las plagas. Es por ello que en la Tesis se evaluaron la toxicidad y los efectos subletales (fecundidad y fertilidad) de flonicamida, flubendiamida, metaflumizona, spirotetramat, sulfoxaflor y deltametrina en los enemigos naturales C. carnea y A. bipunctata. Los efectos secundarios fueron evaluados por contacto residual tanto para larvas como para adultos de ambos enemigos naturales en condiciones de laboratorio. Flonicamida, flubendiamida, metaflumizona y spirotetramat fueron inocuos para larvas de último estadio y adultos de C. carnea y A. bipunctata. Por este motivo, estos insecticidas se presentan como buenos candidatos para ser incorporados dentro de programas de GIP en combinación con estos enemigos naturales para el control de plagas de cultivos hortícolas. Sulfoxaflor fue ligeramente tóxico para adultos de C. carnea y altamente tóxico para larvas de último estadio de A. bipunctata. Para A. bipunctata, sulfoxaflor y deltametrina fueron los compuestos más dañinos. Deltametrina fue también el compuesto más tóxico para larvas y adultos de C. carnea. Por tanto, el uso de deltametrina y sulfoxaflor en programas de GIP debería tomarse en consideración cuando se liberasen cualquiera de estos dos enemigos naturales debido al comportamiento tóxico que mostraron en condiciones de laboratorio. ABSTRACT On 1 January 2014 came into effect the Directive 2009/128/EC of the European Parliament about sustainable use of pesticides and the Royal Decree 1311/2012 that transposes the regulation to the Spanish level. These regulations establish the legal framework that agricultural holdings must adhere to in order to accomplish the general principles of Integrated Pest Management (IPM). The guidelines of IPM give priority to sustainable and eco-friendly pest control techniques, such as biological and physical measures. Nevertheless, the use of pesticides that are selective to natural enemies is sometimes a necessary strategy to implement accurate pest management programs in horticultural protected crops. Therefore, the general objective of this Thesis was to contribute to the improvement of pest management strategies in horticultural crops, by means of the integration of biological, physical and chemical techniques. The first research line of this Thesis was focused on the evaluation of the effects of two aphidophagous predators, Chrysoperla carnea larvae and Adalia bipunctata adults, on the spread of the non-persistently transmitted Cucumber mosaic virus (CMV, Cucumovirus) and the persistently transmitted Cucurbit aphid-borne yellows virus (CABYV, Polerovirus), by the aphid vector Aphis gossypii in a cucumber crop under greenhouse conditions. The CMV transmission rate was generally low, both after 1 and 5 days, due to the limited movement of its aphid vector A. gossypii. Infected plants were mainly located around the central virusinfected source plant, and the percentage of aphid occupation and CMV-infected plants did not differ significantly in absence and presence of natural enemies. The distribution patterns of A. gossypii and CMV were only coincident close to the central plant where insects were released. In the CABYV experiments, the presence of C. carnea larvae and A. bipunctata adults induced significant A. gossypii dispersal after 14 days but not after 7 days. The reduction in the initial aphid population established in the central plant was always higher for C. carnea than for A. bipunctata. Nevertheless, CABYV spread was not significantly modified by the presence of each predator either in the short term (7 days) or in the long term (14 days). Furthermore, the percentage of CABYV-infected plants did not significantly differ when each natural enemy was present in any evaluation period. It is important to evaluate the influence that natural enemies have on pest dynamics and on the spread of viral diseases, but it should be also taken into account the possible effect on the performance of natural enemies when they feed on preys that act as vectors of viruses. Thus, in a second research line developed in the Laboratory of Ecotoxicology, Department of Entomology, of the Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA) (Brazil), it was evaluated the performance of Chrysoperla externa under the condition of consuming Myzus persicae acting as vector of Potato leafroll virus (PLRV). The diet composed of PLRV-infected M. persicae significantly increased the length and reduced the survival rate, of the larval period in regard to the other two diets, composed of non-infected M. persicae and Ephestia kuehniella eggs. The lengths of the pupal stage were not significantly different between the aphid diets, but both were significantly shorter than that of E. kuehniella eggs. Neither pupal survival nor reproductive parameters revealed significant differences among the diets. Nevertheless, the adult survival curves during the first 30 days after emergence showed significant differences, reaching at the end of this interval a value of 54% for those C. externa adults fed on PLRVinfected aphids during their larval period. According to the IPM guidelines, one of the physical strategies for the control of pests and diseases in horticultural protected crops is the use of plastic films with photoselective properties that act as ultraviolet (UV) radiation blocking barriers. In this sense, the third research line of the Thesis dealt with the study of the direct and plant-mediated influence of low UV radiation conditions on the performance of the aphid A. gossypii and on the biological parameters of the natural enemy C. carnea, as well as on the cucumber plants where insects were released. The experiments were conducted inside cages under greenhouse conditions, using for the first one healthy cucumber plants, while for the second experiment the cucumber plants were previously infected with CABYV in order to assess the influence of the virus in the same conditions. The low UV radiation conditions (under Térmico Antivirus® plastic film) seemed to exert a direct effect in the early stages of cucumber plants, enhancing their growth, and in an increasing nitrogen content at further developmental stages. The higher UV radiation exposure (under Térmico Blanco® plastic film) in the early stages of the cucumber crop induced the thickening of the adaxial epidermal cell walls and the cuticle of leaves. The use of Térmico Antivirus® plastic film as a photoselective barrier to induce low UV radiation conditions did not modify, in regard to Térmico Blanco® plastic film (used as control), neither the population development of A. gossypii nor the studied biological parameters of the predator C. carnea. In the second experiment, done with CABYV-infected cucumber plants, the incidence of the virus seemed to mask the direct and plant-mediated influence of the different UV radiation conditions. In last term, for the development of IPM strategies it is important to study the potential side effects that pesticides might have on natural enemies. For this reason, in the Thesis were tested the toxicity and sublethal effects (fecundity and fertility) of flonicamid, flubendiamide, metaflumizone, spirotetramat, sulfoxaflor and deltamethrin on the natural enemies C. carnea and A. bipunctata. The side effects of the active ingredients of the insecticides were evaluated with residual contact tests for the larvae and adults of these predators under laboratory conditions. Flonicamid, flubendiamide, metaflumizone and spirotetramat were innocuous to last instar larvae and adults of C. carnea and A. bipunctata. Therefore, these pesticides are promising candidates for being incorporated into IPM programs in combination with these natural enemies for the control of particular greenhouse pests. In contrast, sulfoxaflor was slightly toxic to adults of C. carnea and was highly toxic to last instar larvae of A. bipunctata. For A. bipunctata, sulfoxaflor and deltamethrin were the most damaging compounds. Deltamethrin was also the most toxic compound to larvae and adults of C. carnea. In accordance with this fact, the use of sulfoxaflor and deltamethrin in IPM strategies should be taken into consideration when releasing either of these biological control agents, due to the toxic behavior observed under laboratory conditions.

Decarbonization of toll plazas: impact assessment of toll collection system management

Transport climate change impacts have become a worldwide concern. The use of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) could contribute to a more effective use of resources in toll road networks. Management of toll plazas is central to the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as it is there that bottlenecks and congestion occur. This study focuses on management strategies aimed at reducing climate change impacts of toll plazas by managing toll collection systems. These strategies are based on the use of different collection system technologies – Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) and Open Road Tolling (ORT) – and on queue management. The carbon footprint of various toll plazas is determined by a proposed integrated methodology which estimates the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of the different operational stages at toll plazas (deceleration, service time, acceleration, and queuing) for the different toll collection systems. To validate the methodology, two main-line toll plazas of a Spanish toll highway were evaluated. The findings reveal that the application of new technologies to toll collection systems is an effective management strategy from an environmental point of view. The case studies revealed that ORT systems lead to savings of up to 70% of CO2 emissions at toll plazas, while ETC systems save 20% comparing to the manual ones. Furthermore, queue management can offer a 16% emissions savings when queue time is reduced by 116 seconds. The integrated methodology provides an efficient environmental management tool for toll plazas. The use of new technologies is the future of the decarbonization of toll plazas.

Optimizing PV use through active demand side management

With recent technological developments within the field of power conditioning and the progressive decrease of incentives for PV electricity in grid-connected markets, new operation modes for PV systems should be explored beyond the traditional maximization of PV electri city feed-in. An example can be found in the domestic sector, where the use of modern PV hybrid systems combin ed with efficient electrical appliances and demand side management strategies can significantly enhance the PV value for the user. This paper presents an active demand side management system able to displace the consumer’s load curve in response to local (PV hybrid system, user) and external conditions (external grid). In this way, th e consumer becomes an “active consumer” that can also cooperate with others and the grid, increasing even more the PV value for the electrical system.

Molecular tools to improve chestnut management: El Bierzo as a case study

The European chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) is a multipurpose species that has been widely cultivated around the Mediterranean basin since ancient times. New varieties were brought to the Iberian Peninsula during the Roman Empire, which coexist since then with native populations that survived the last glaciation. The relevance of chestnut cultivation has being steadily growing since the Middle Ages, until the rural decline of the past century put a stop to this trend. Forest fires and diseases were also major factors. Chestnut cultivation is gaining momentum again due to its economic (wood, fruits) and ecologic relevance, and represents currently an important asset in many rural areas of Europe. In this Thesis we apply different molecular tools to help improve current management strategies. For this study we have chosen El Bierzo (Castile and Leon, NW Spain), which has a centenary tradition of chestnut cultivation and management, and also presents several unique features from a genetic perspective (next paragraph). Moreover, its nuts are widely appreciated in Spain and abroad for their organoleptic properties. We have focused our experimental work on two major problems faced by breeders and the industry: the lack of a fine-grained genetic characterization and the need for new strategies to control blight disease. To characterize with sufficient detail the genetic diversity and structure of El Bierzo orchards, we analyzed DNA from 169 trees grafted for nut production covering the entire region. We also analyzed 62 nuts from all traditional varieties. El Bierzo constitutes an outstanding scenario to study chestnut genetics and the influence of human management because: (i) it is located at one extreme of the distribution area; (ii) it is a major glacial refuge for the native species; (iii) it has a long tradition of human management (since Roman times, at least); and (iv) its geographical setting ensures an unusual degree of genetic isolation. Thirteen microsatellite markers provided enough informativeness and discrimination power to genotype at the individual level. Together with an unexpected level of genetic variability, we found evidence of genetic structure, with three major gene pools giving rise to the current population. High levels of genetic differentiation between groups supported this organization. Interestingly, genetic structure does not match with spatial boundaries, suggesting that the exchange of material and cultivation practices have strongly influenced natural gene flow. The microsatellite markers selected for this study were also used to classify a set of 62 samples belonging to all traditional varieties. We identified several cases of synonymies and homonymies, evidencing the need to substitute traditional classification systems with new tools for genetic profiling. Management and conservation strategies should also benefit from these tools. The avenue of high-throughput sequencing technologies, combined with the development of bioinformatics tools, have paved the way to study transcriptomes without the need for a reference genome. We took advantage of RNA sequencing and de novo assembly tools to determine the transcriptional landscape of chestnut in response to blight disease. In addition, we have selected a set of candidate genes with high potential for developing resistant varieties via genetic engineering. Our results evidenced a deep transcriptional reprogramming upon fungal infection. The plant hormones ET and JA appear to orchestrate the defensive response. Interestingly, our results also suggest a role for auxins in modulating such response. Many transcription factors were identified in this work that interact with promoters of genes involved in disease resistance. Among these genes, we have conducted a functional characterization of a two major thaumatin-like proteins (TLP) that belongs to the PR5 family. Two genes encoding chestnut cotyledon TLPs have been previously characterized, termed CsTL1 and CsTL2. We substantiate here their protective role against blight disease for the first time, including in silico, in vitro and in vivo evidence. The synergy between TLPs and other antifungal proteins, particularly endo-p-1,3-glucanases, bolsters their interest for future control strategies based on biotechnological approaches.

Integrated economic-hydrologic analysis of policy responses

Water is a vital resource, but also a critical limiting factor for economic and social development in many parts of the world. The recent rapid growth in human population and water use for social and economic development is increasing the pressure on water resources and the environment, as well as leading to growing conflicts among competing water use sectors (agriculture, urban, tourism, industry) and regions (Gleick et al., 2009; World Bank, 2006). In Spain, as in many other arid and semi-arid regions affected by drought and wide climate variability, irrigated agriculture is responsible for most consumptive water use and plays an important role in sustaining rural livelihoods (Varela-Ortega, 2007). Historically, the evolution of irrigation has been based on publicly-funded irrigation development plans that promoted economic growth and improved the socio-economic conditions of rural farmers in agrarian Spain, but increased environmental damage and led to excessive and inefficient exploitation of water resources (Garrido and Llamas, 2010; Varela-Ortega et al., 2010). Currently, water policies in Spain focus on rehabilitating and improving the efficiency of irrigation systems, and are moving from technocratic towards integrated water management strategies driven by the European Union (EU) Water Framework Directive (WFD).

Performance of a transmutation advanced device for sustainable energy application

Preliminary studies have been performed to design a device for nuclear waste transmutation and hydrogen generation based on a gas-cooled pebble bed accelerator driven system, TADSEA (Transmutation Advanced Device for Sustainable Energy Application). In previous studies we have addressed the viability of an ADS Transmutation device that uses as fuel wastes from the existing LWR power plants, encapsulated in graphite in the form of pebble beds, cooled by helium which enables high temperatures (in the order of 1200 K), to generate hydrogen from water either by high temperature electrolysis or by thermochemical cycles. For designing this device several configurations were studied, including several reflectors thickness, to achieve the desired parameters, the transmutation of nuclear waste and the production of 100 MW of thermal power. In this paper new studies performed on deep burn in-core fuel management strategy for LWR waste are presented. The fuel cycle on TADSEA device has been analyzed based on both: driven and transmutation fuel that had been proposed by the General Atomic design of a gas turbine-modular helium reactor. The transmutation results of the three fuel management strategies, using driven, transmutation and standard LWR spent fuel were compared, and several parameters describing the neutron performance of TADSEA nuclear core as the fuel and moderator temperature reactivity coefficients and transmutation chain, are also presented

The relationship between soil geochemistry and the bioaccessibility of trace elements in playground soil

A total of 32 samples of surficial soil were collected from 16 playground areas in Madrid (Spain), in order to investigate the importance of the geochemistry of the soil on subsequent bioaccessibility of trace elements. The in vitro bioaccessibility of As, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn was evaluated by means of two extraction processes that simulate the gastric environment and one that reproduces a gastric + intestinal digestion sequence. The results of the in vitro bioaccessibility were compared against aqua regia extractions (“total” concentration), and it was found that total concentrations of As, Cu, Pb and Zn were double those of bioaccessible values, whilst that of Cr was ten times higher. Whereas the results of the gastric + intestinal extraction were affected by a high uncertainty, both gastric methods offered very similar and consistent results, with bioaccessibilities following the order: As = Cu = Pb = Zn > Co > Ni > Cr, and ranging from 63 to 7 %. Selected soil properties including pH, organic matter, Fe and CaCO3 content were determined to assess their influence on trace element bioaccessibility, and it was found that Cu, Pb and Zn were predominantly bound to organic matter and, to a lesser extent, Fe oxides. The former fraction was readily accessible in the gastric solution, whereas Fe oxides seemed to recapture negatively charged chloride complexes of these elements in the gastric solution, lowering their bioaccessibility. The homogeneous pH of the playground soils included in the study does not influence trace element bioaccessibility to any significant extent except for Cr, where the very low gastric accessibility seems to be related to the strongly pH-dependent formation of complexes with organic matter. The results for As, which have been previously described and discussed in detail in Mingot et al. (Chemosphere 84: 1386–1391, 2011), indicate a high gastric bioaccessibility for this element as a consequence of its strong association with calcium carbonate and the ease with which these bonds are broken in the gastric solution. The calculation of risk assessments are therefore dependant on the methodology used and the specific environment they address. This has impacts on management strategies formulated to ensure that the most vulnerable of society, children, can live and play without adverse consequences to their health.

Estrategias innovadoras para la gestión del riesgo de sequía en sistemas ganaderos extensivos

La vulnerabilidad de los sistemas ganaderos de pastoreo pone en evidencia la necesidad de herramientas para evaluar y mitigar los efectos de la sequía. El avance en la teledetección ha despertado el interés por explotar potenciales aplicaciones, y está dando lugar a un intenso desarrollo de innovaciones en distintos campos. Una de estas áreas es la gestión del riesgo climático, en donde la utilización de índices de vegetación permite la evaluación de la sequía. En esta investigación, se analiza el impacto de la sequía y se evalúa el potencial de nuevas tecnologías como la teledetección para la gestión del riesgo de sequía en sistemas de ganadería extensiva. Para ello, se desarrollan tres aplicaciones: (i) evaluar el impacto económico de la sequía en una explotación ganadera extensiva de la dehesa de Andalucía, (ii) elaborar mapas de vulnerabilidad a la sequía en pastos de Chile y (iii) diseñar y evaluar el potencial de un seguro indexado para sequía en pastos en la región de Coquimbo en Chile. En la primera aplicación, se diseña un modelo dinámico y estocástico que integra aspectos climáticos, ecológicos, agronómicos y socioeconómicos para evaluar el riesgo de sequía. El modelo simula una explotación ganadera tipo de la dehesa de Andalucía para el período 1999-2010. El método de Análisis Histórico y la simulación de MonteCarlo se utilizan para identificar los principales factores de riesgo de la explotación, entre los que destacan, los periodos de inicios del verano e inicios de invierno. Los resultados muestran la existencia de un desfase temporal entre el riesgo climático y riesgo económico, teniendo este último un periodo de duración más extenso en el tiempo. También, revelan que la intensidad, frecuencia y duración son tres atributos cruciales que determinan el impacto económico de la sequía. La estrategia de reducción de la carga ganadera permite aminorar el riesgo, pero conlleva una disminución en el margen bruto de la explotación. La segunda aplicación está dedicada a la elaboración de mapas de vulnerabilidad a la sequia en pastos de Chile. Para ello, se propone y desarrolla un índice de riesgo económico (IRESP) sencillo de interpretar y replicable, que integra factores de riesgo y estrategias de adaptación para obtener una medida del Valor en Riesgo, es decir, la máxima pérdida esperada en un año con un nivel de significación del 5%.La representación espacial del IRESP pone en evidencia patrones espaciales y diferencias significativas en la vulnerabilidad a la sequía a lo largo de Chile. Además, refleja que la vulnerabilidad no siempre esta correlacionada con el riesgo climático y demuestra la importancia de considerar las estrategias de adaptación. Las medidas de autocorrelación espacial revelan que el riesgo sistémico es considerablemente mayor en el sur que en el resto de zonas. Los resultados demuestran que el IRESP transmite información pertinente y, que los mapas de vulnerabilidad pueden ser una herramienta útil en el diseño de políticas y toma de decisiones para la gestión del riesgo de sequía. La tercera aplicación evalúa el potencial de un seguro indexado para sequía en pastos en la región de Coquimbo en Chile. Para lo cual, se desarrolla un modelo estocástico para estimar la prima actuarialmente justa del seguro y se proponen y evalúan pautas alternativas para mejorar el diseño del contrato. Se aborda el riesgo base, el principal problema de los seguros indexados identificado en la literatura y, que está referido a la correlación imperfecta del índice con las pérdidas de la explotación. Para ello, se sigue un enfoque bayesiano que permite evaluar el impacto en el riesgo base de las pautas de diseño propuestas: i) una zonificación por clúster que considera aspectos espacio-temporales, ii) un período de garantía acotado a los ciclos fenológicos del pasto y iii) umbral de garantía. Los resultados muestran que tanto la zonificación como el periodo de garantía reducen el riesgo base considerablemente. Sin embargo, el umbral de garantía tiene un efecto ambiguo sobre el riesgo base. Por otra parte, la zonificación por clúster contribuye a aminorar el riesgo sistémico que enfrentan las aseguradoras. Estos resultados han puesto de manifiesto que un buen diseño de contrato puede tener un doble dividendo, por un lado aumentar su utilidad y, por otro, reducir el coste del seguro. Un diseño de contrato eficiente junto con los avances en la teledetección y un adecuado marco institucional son los pilares básicos para el buen funcionamiento de un programa de seguro. Las nuevas tecnologías ofrecen un importante potencial para la innovación en la gestión del riesgo climático. Los avances en este campo pueden proporcionar importantes beneficios sociales en los países en desarrollo y regiones vulnerables, donde las herramientas para gestionar eficazmente los riesgos sistémicos como la sequía pueden ser de gran ayuda para el desarrollo. The vulnerability of grazing livestock systems highlights the need for tools to assess and mitigate the adverse impact of drought. The recent and rapid progress in remote sensing has awakened an interest for tapping into potential applications, triggering intensive efforts to develop innovations in a number of spheres. One of these areas is climate risk management, where the use of vegetation indices facilitates assessment of drought. This research analyzes drought impacts and evaluates the potential of new technologies such as remote sensing to manage drought risk in extensive livestock systems. Three essays in drought risk management are developed to: (i) assess the economic impact of drought on a livestock farm in the Andalusian Dehesa, (ii) build drought vulnerability maps in Chilean grazing lands, and (iii) design and evaluate the potential of an index insurance policy to address the risk of drought in grazing lands in Coquimbo, Chile. In the first essay, a dynamic and stochastic farm model is designed combining climate, agronomic, socio-economic and ecological aspects to assess drought risk. The model is developed to simulate a representative livestock farm in the Dehesa of Andalusia for the time period 1999-2010. Burn analysis and MonteCarlo simulation methods are used to identify the significance of various risk sources at the farm. Most notably, early summer and early winter are identified as periods of peak risk. Moreover, there is a significant time lag between climate and economic risk and this later last longer than the former. It is shown that intensity, frequency and duration of the drought are three crucial attributes that shape the economic impact of drought. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess the sustainability of farm management strategies and demonstrates that lowering the stocking rate reduces farmer exposure to drought risk but entails a reduction in the expected gross margin. The second essay, mapping drought vulnerability in Chilean grazing lands, proposes and builds an index of economic risk (IRESP) that is replicable and simple to interpret. This methodology integrates risk factors and adaptation strategies to deliver information on Value at Risk, maximum expected losses at 5% significance level. Mapping IRESP provides evidence about spatial patterns and significant differences in drought vulnerability across Chilean grazing lands. Spatial autocorrelation measures reveal that systemic risk is considerably larger in the South as compared to Northern or Central Regions. Furthermore, it is shown that vulnerability is not necessarily correlated with climate risk and that adaptation strategies do matter. These results show that IRESP conveys relevant information and that vulnerability maps may be useful tools to assess policy design and decision-making in drought risk management. The third essay develops a stochastic model to estimate the actuarially fair premium and evaluates the potential of an indexed insurance policy to manage drought risk in Coquimbo, a relevant livestock farming region of Chile. Basis risk refers to the imperfect correlation of the index and farmer loses and is identified in the literature as a main limitation of index insurance. A Bayesian approach is proposed to assess the impact on basis risk of alternative guidelines in contract design: i) A cluster zoning that considers space-time aspects, ii) A guarantee period bounded to fit phenological cycles, and iii) the triggering index threshold. Results show that both the proposed zoning and guarantee period considerably reduces basis risk. However, the triggering index threshold has an ambiguous effect on basis risk. On the other hand, cluster zoning contributes to ameliorate systemic risk faced by the insurer. These results highlighted that adequate contract design is important and may result in double dividend. On the one hand, increasing farmers’ utility and, secondly, reducing the cost of insurance. An efficient contract design coupled with advances in remote sensing and an appropriate institutional framework are the basis for an efficient operation of an insurance program. The new technologies offer significant potential for innovation in climate risk managements. Progress in this field is capturing increasing attention and may provide important social gains in developing countries and vulnerable regions where the tools to efficiently manage systemic risks, such as drought, may be a means to foster development.

Optimizing rabbit production under heat stress: cage density and cage size during fattening, and breeding system and water quality on rabbit does

The aim of this work was to evaluate different management strategies to optimize rabbit production under chronic heat stress. To achieve it, three trials were conducted. In the first trial, to find the optimal cage density in tropical very dry forest condition, were measured growth performance, mortality rate, injured animals and carcass performance over an initial population of 300 cross-breed rabbits of New Zealand, California, Butterfly, Dutch and Satin, weaned at 30 days (535 ± 8 g, standard error). Treatments evaluated were: 6, 12, 18 and 24 rabbits/m2 (3, 6, 9 and 12 rabbits/cage, respectively, each cage of 0.5 m2). The maximal temperature-humidity index indicated a severe heat stress from weaning to 2.2 kg body weight (experimental time). At the end of experimental period 10, 20, 30 and 30 rabbits from the treatments of 6, 12, 18 and 24 rabbits/m2, respectively, were slaughtered and carcass performance recorded. Average daily gain and feed intake decreased by 0.31 ± 0.070 and 1.20 ± 0.25 g, respectively, per each unit that the density increased at the beginning of the experiment (P = 0.001). It increased the length of the fattening period by 0.91 ± 0.16 d (P = 0.001) per each unit of increment of density. However, rabbit production (kg/m2) increased linear and quadratically with the density (P < 0.008). Animals housed at the highest density compared to the lower one tended to show a higher incidence of ringworm (68.9 vs 39.4%; P = 0.075), injured animals (16.8 vs 3.03%; P = 0.12) and mortality (20.5 vs 9.63%; P = 0.043). The proportion of scapular fat (P = 0.042) increased linearly with increasing levels of density. Increasing density reduced linearly dorsal length (P = 0.001), and reduced linear and quadratically drip loss percentage (P = 0.097 and 0.018, respectively). In the second trial, 46 nulliparous rabbit does (23 clipped and 23 unclipped) with a BW of 3.67 ± 0.05 kg (s.e.) were used to evaluate heat stress and circadian rhythms comparing unclipped and clipped rabbit does, and to study if a more extensive breeding system increase litters performance at weaning without impairing rabbit doe performance,. Rectal temperature, feed and water 4 intake were recorded for 24 h. Rabbit does were mated 7 d after circadian measurements, and randomly assigned to two breeding systems. Control (C): mated at 14 d after parturition + litter weaned at 35 d of age. Extensive (E): mate at 21 after parturition + litter weaned at 42 d of age. The first three cycles were evaluated concerning to rabbit doe and litter performance. Two hundred twenty eight weaned rabbits, were divided into two cage sizes: 0.5 and 0.25 m2 with same density (16 rabbit/m2) and growing performance was recorded. Farm and rectal temperatures were minimal and feed and water intake maximal during the night (P < 0.001). Unclipped rabbit does showed higher rectal temperature (P = 0.045) and lower feed intake respect to clipped does (P = 0.019) which suggest a lower heat stress in the latter. Kits weaned per litter was reduced by 33% (P=0.038) in C group. This reduction was more important in the 2nd and 3rd cycles compared to the first (P ≤ 0.054). Rabbit doe feed efficiency tended to decrease in E respect C group (P = 0.093), whereas it was impaired from the first to the third cycle by 48% (P = 0.014). Growing rabbits from the E group were heavier at weaning (by 38%. P < 0.001), showed a higher feed intake (+7.4%) and lower feed efficiency (-8.4%) throughout the fattening period (P ≤ 0.056) respect to C group. Cage size had minor influence in growing performance. In the third trial, forty five non pregnant and non lactating rabbit does (21 nulliparous and 24 multiparous) were assigned randomly to farm water and to potable water to study if a water quality improvement can affect positively rabbit doe response to heat stress during pregnancy and lactation. A transponder was implanted in each animal to record subcutaneous temperature at 07:30 and 14:30 h. Experimental period extended from pregnancy (with no lactation) to the next lactation (until day 28). Body temperature and milk production were recorded daily, and body condition, feed and water intake weekly. Water quality did not affect any trait (P ≥ 0.15). Pregnant rabbit does were classified as does that weaned (W: 47%), not weaned (NW: 44%) or those pregnant that did not deliver (NB: 9%). Body temperature and feed intake decreased during pregnancy (P ≤ 0.031), but water intake remained constant. In this period body temperature decreased with metabolic weight (P ≤ 0.009). In W and NW does, 5 from mating to birth energy and protein balance impaired (P≤0.011). Body temperature of W does tended to be the lowest (P ≤ 0.090). Pregnancy length and total number of kits born tended to be longer and higher in NW than in W does (P = 0.10 and 0.053, respectively). Kit mortality at birth and from birth to 14 d of lactation was high, being worse for NW than for W does (97 vs. 40%; P<0.001). Body temperature during lactation was maximal at day 12, and milk production increased it (P ≤ 0.025). . In conclusion, in our heat stress conditions densities higher than 18 rabbits/m2 (34 kg/m2) at the end of fattening, are not recommended despite cage size, gestation and lactation productivity impaired not only when lactation is extended and along successive reproductive cycles but also due to a reduced embryo/kit survival and finally water quality improvement did not attenuate negative effect of heat stress. RESUMEN El propósito de éste trabajo fue evaluar diferentes estrategias de manejo para optimizar la producción de conejos bajo estrés térmico. Para lo cual se desarrollaron tres experimentos. En el primer experimento, para encontrar el número óptimo de gazapos por m2 de jaula durante el cebo en condiciones de bosque muy seco tropical, se estudiaron los rendimientos durante el cebo, mortalidad, animales lesionados y rendimiento de la canal sobre una población inicial de 300 conejos mestizos de Nueva Zelanda, California, Mariposa, Holandés y Satin, destetados a los 30 días de edad (535 ± 8g, error estándar). Los tratamientos evaluados fueron: 6, 12, 18 y 24 conejos/m2 (3, 6, 9 y 12 conejos/jaula, respectivamente, en jaulas de 0.5 m2). Durante el período experimental (destete a 2.2 kg de peso vivo), se observaron valores de THI correspondientes con un estrés térmico severo (THI max. De 31 a 35). Al final del período experimental, 10, 20, 30, y 30 conejos de los tratamientos con densidades de 6, 12, 18 y 24 conejos/m2, respectivamente, fueron sacrificados y su canal fue valorada. El promedio de la ganancia diaria y el consumo de alimento disminuyeron en 0.31 ± 0.070 y 1.20 ± 0.25 g, respectivamente, por cada unidad de incremento en la densidad al inicio del experimento (P=0.001). Esto alargó el período de engorde en 0.91 ± 0.16 d (P=0.001) por cada unidad de incremento de la densidad. Sin embargo, la producción de conejos (kg/m2) aumentó lineal y cuadráticamente con la densidad (P<0.008). Los animales alojados en las mayores densidades en comparación con el resto tendieron a mostrar una mayore incidencia de tiña (68.9 vs 39.4%; P=0.075), de cantidad de animales heridos (16.8 vs 3.03%; P=0.12), así como de mortalidad (20.5 vs 9.63%; P=0.043). El aumento en la densidad aumentó linealmente la proporción de grasa escapular (P=0.042) y redujo linealmente la longitud dorsal (P=0.001), y lineal y cuadráticamente el porcentaje de pérdida por goteo (P=0.018). En el segundo experimento, 46 conejas nulliparas (23 rasuradas y 23 no rasuradas) con un peso vivo de 3.67 ± 0.05 kg (e.e.) fueron usadas para evaluar el estrés 8 térmico y los ritmos circadianos comparando conejas rasuradas o no, y estudiar si un sistema de crianza más extensivo mejora el desempeño de la camada al destete sin perjudicar la productividad de la coneja. Durante 24 h se midió la temperatura rectal, consumo de alimento y de agua. Las conejas fueron montadas 7 días después, y distribuidas en dos sistemas de crianza. El control (C): monta a 14 días posparto y destete a 35 d de edad. El extensivo (E): monta a 21 días posparto y destete a 42 d de edad. Se controló la productividad de la coneja y la camada durante los tres primeros ciclos. Doscientos veintiocho gazapos fueron distribuidos en dos tamaños de jaulas (0.5 y 0.25 m2) con la misma densidad (16 conejos/m2) y se controlaron sus rendimientos productivos. Durante la noche se observaron los valores mínimos para la temperatura ambiental y rectal, y los máximos para consumo de alimento y agua (P< 0.001). Las conejas no rasuradas mostraron mayor temperatura rectal (P=0.045) y menores valores de consumo de alimento con respecto a las conejas rasuradas (P=0.019), lo que sugiere un menor estrés térmico en las últimas. El número de gazapos destetados por camada se redujo en 33% (P=0.038) en el grupo C. Este comportamiento se acentuó en el 2do y 3er ciclo en comparación con el primero (P≤0.054). La eficiencia alimenticia de las conejas tendió a disminuir en el grupo E con respecto al grupo C (P=0.093), dicha tendencia se acentúa del primer al tercer ciclo en un 48% (P=0.014). Los gazapos en fase de crecimiento provenientes del grupo E fueron más pesados al momento del destete (en 38% P<0.001), mostrando un mayor consumo de alimento (+7.4%) y menor eficiencia alimenticia (-8.4%) a lo largo del engorde (P≤0.056) con respecto al grupo C. El tamaño de la jaula tuvo una mínima influencia en el comportamiento durante el crecimiento de éstos gazapos. En el tercer experimento, cuarenta y cinco conejas no gestantes ni lactantes (21 nulíparas y 24 multíparas) se les asignó al azar agua dos tipos de agua: común de la granja y agua potable, con el fin de estudiar si una mejora en la calidad del agua puede afectar positivamente la respuesta de la coneja al estrés térmico durante la gestación y la lactancia. Se les implantó un transponder para registrar la temperatura subcutánea a las 7:30 y a las 14:30 h. El período experimental se extendió desde la gestación (sin 9 lactancia) hasta la lactanción consecutiva (hasta los 28 días). La temperatura corporal y la producción de leche se controlaron diariamente, y la condición corporal, consumo de agua y alimento, semanalmente. La calidad del agua no afectó a ninguna variable (P≥0.15). Las conejas preñadas fueron clasificadas como conejas que destetaron (W: 47%), que no destetaron (NW:44%) o aquellas que no parieron (NB: 9%). La temperatura corporal y consumo de alimento disminuyeron durante la gestación (P≤0.031), mientras que el consumo de agua se mantuvo constante. La temperatura corporal descendió con el peso metabólico durante la gestación (P≤0.009). El balance de energía y proteína disminuyó desde la monta al parto para las conejas W y NW (P≤0.011). Durante la gestación la temperatura corporal tendió a ser menor en las conejas W (P≤0.090). La longitud de la gestación y el número total de gazapos nacidos tendieron a ser mayores en conejas NW que en conejas W (P=0.10 y 0.053, respectivamente). La mortalidad de los gazapos al parto y del parto a los 14 días de lactancia fue alta, siendo peor para las conejas NW que para las W (97 vs 40%; P<0.001). Durante la lactancia la temperatura corporal alcanzó su valor máximo para el día 12, y la producción de leche indujo un incremento en la misma (P≤0.025). En conclusión, en nuestras condiciones de estrés térmico y sin importar el tamaño de la jaula, no se recomiendan densidades mayores a 18 conejos/m2 (34 kg/m2) al final del engorde. La productividad de la gestación y la lactancia disminuyen cuando la lactancia es mayor y se suceden varios ciclos reproductivos seguidos. Esto se debe al efecto negativo del estrés térmico sobre la vitalidad y supervivencia del embrión/gazapo. La mejora de la calidad del agua atenuó el efecto negativo del estrés térmico. Las conejas más productoras parece que son aquéllas que consiguen manejar mejor el estrés térmico.

Energy requirements in pressure irrigation systems

Modernization of irrigation schemes, generally understood as transformation of surface irrigation systems into pressure –sprinkler and trickle- irrigation systems, aims at, among others, improving irrigation efficiency and reduction of operation and maintenance efforts made by the irrigators. However, pressure irrigation systems, in contrast, carry a serious energy cost. Energy requirements depend on decisions taken on management strategies during the operation phase, which are conditioned by previous decisions taken on the design project of the different elements which compose the irrigation system. Most of the countries where irrigation activity is significant bear in mind that modernization irrigation must play a key role in the agricultural infrastructure policies. The objective of this study is to characterize and estimate the mean and variation of the energy consumed by common types of irrigation systems and their management possibilities. The work includes all processes involved from the diversion of water into irrigation specific infrastructure to water discharge by the emitters installed on the crop fields. Simulation taking into account all elements comprising the irrigation system has been used to estimate the energy requirements of typical irrigation systems of several crop production systems. It has been applied to extensive and intensive crop systems, such us extensive winter crops, summer crops and olive trees, fruit trees and vineyards and intensive horticulture in greenhouses. The simulation of various types of irrigation systems and management strategies, in the framework imposed by particular cropping systems, would help to develop criteria for improving the energy balance in relation to the irrigation water supply productivity.

Resistance to malathion and lambda-cyhalothrin in Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Tephritidae)

La mosca mediterránea de la fruta, Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann, 1824) (Diptera: Tephritidae), es una de las plagas de mayor incidencia económica en cítricos y otros frutales a nivel mundial. En España las medidas de control de esta plaga en cítricos, desde mediados de los 90 hasta 2009, se basaron principalmente en el monitoreo de las poblaciones y en la aplicación de tratamientos aéreos y terrestres con malatión cebo. Sin embargo, desde la retirada en la Unión Europea en 2009 de los productos fitosanitarios que contienen malatión, los insecticidas más utilizados para el control de esta plaga han sido lambda-cihalotrina y spinosad. En 2004-2005 se detectaron poblaciones españolas de C. capitata resistentes a malatión. Esta resistencia se ha asociado a una mutación (G328A) en la acetilcolinesterasa (AChE), a una duplicación del gen de la AChE (Ccace2) (una de las copias lleva la mutación G328A) y a resistencia metabólica mediada por esterasas (posiblemente aliesterasas). Sin embargo, cuando se secuenció la aliesterasa CcE7 en individuos de una línea resistente a malatión, no se encontró ninguna de las mutaciones (G137D y/o W251L/S/G) asociadas a resistencia en otras especies, si bien se encontraron otras mutaciones al compararlos con individuos de una línea susceptible. Asimismo, mediante la selección en laboratorio de una línea resistente a malatión (W-4Km) con lambda-cihalotrina, se ha podido obtener una línea resistente a lambda-cihalotrina (W-1K). Finalmente, se ha demostrado la capacidad de esta especie para desarrollar resistencia a spinosad mediante selección en laboratorio. Los múltiples mecanismos de resistencia identificados evidencian el potencial de esta especie para desarrollar resistencia a insecticidas con diferentes modos de acción. Los objetivos de esta tesis doctoral son: 1) evaluar la susceptibilidad de poblaciones españolas de campo de C. capitata a lambda-cihalotrina y dilucidar los mecanismos de resistencia en la línea W-1Kλ; 2) comparar la herencia, el coste biológico y la estabilidad de la resistencia a malatión mediada por la mutación G328A y la duplicación del gen Ccace2 (una de las copias lleva la mutación G328A); y 3) investigar el papel de las mutaciones identificadas en la aliesterasa CcαE7 en la resistencia a malatión. Estos estudios son de utilidad para el desarrollo de estrategias de manejo de la resistencia que puedan prevenir o retrasar la aparición de resistencia y aumentar la sostenibilidad de los insecticidas disponibles para el control de esta plaga. Nuestros resultados indican que las poblaciones españolas de C. capitata analizadas han desarrollado resistencia a lambda-cihalotrina. Los valores de CL50 estimados para las poblaciones recogidas en la Comunidad Valenciana, Cataluña y Andalucía oscilaron entre 129 ppm y 287 ppm, igualando o sobrepasando la concentración recomendada para los tratamientos de campo (125 ppm). Estos resultados contrastan con los obtenidos con tres poblaciones de campo recogidas en Túnez, cuya susceptibilidad fue similar a la de la línea control (C). La línea resistente a lambda-cihalotrina W-1K se continuó seleccionando en el laboratorio alcanzándose unos niveles de resistencia de 205 veces con respecto a la línea C, siendo su CL50 (4224 ppm) más de 30 veces superior a la concentración recomendada para los tratamientos de campo. Esta línea resistente mostró altos niveles de resistencia cruzada a deltametrina (150 veces) y a etofenprox (240 veces), lo que sugiere que el desarrollo de resistencia a lambda-cihalotrina podría comprometer la eficacia de otros piretroides para el control de esta plaga. Hemos demostrado que la resistencia de la línea W-1K a lambda-cihalotrina fue casi completamente suprimida por el sinergista PBO, lo que indica que las enzimas P450 desempeñan un papel muy importante en la resistencia a este insecticida. Sin embargo, tanto las moscas de la línea susceptible C como las de la línea resistente W-1K perdieron inmediatamente la capacidad de caminar (efecto “knock-down”) al ser tratadas tópicamente con lambda-cihalotrina, lo que sugiere que la resistencia no está mediada por alteraciones en la molécula diana (resistencia tipo “kdr”). La resistencia metabólica mediada por P450 fue analizada comparando la expresión de 53 genes CYP (codifican enzimas P450) de las familias CYP4, CYP6, CYP9 y CYP12 en adultos de la línea resistente W-1K y de la línea susceptible C. Nuestros resultados muestran que el gen CYP6A51 (número de acceso GenBank XM_004534804) fue sobreexpresado (13-18 veces) en la línea W-1K. Por otra parte, la expresión del gen CYP6A51 fue inducida tanto en adultos de la línea W-1K como de la línea C al ser tratados con lambda-cihalotrina. Sin embargo, no se obtuvieron diferencias significativas entre la línea susceptible C y la línea resistente W-1K al comparar la cantidad de P450 y la actividad NADPH-citocromo c reductasa presente en fracciones microsomales obtenidas a partir de abdómenes. Asimismo, no hemos podido correlacionar el metabolismo de deltametrina, estimado in vitro mediante la incubación de este insecticida con fracciones microsomales, con el nivel de resistencia a este piretroide observado en los bioensayos con la línea W-1K. Por otro lado, no se encontró ninguna alteración en la región promotora 5'UTR del gen CYP6A51 (-500 pb desde el inicio de la traducción) que pudiera explicar su sobreexpresión en la línea W-1K. Los datos obtenidos sugieren que la resistencia a lambda-cihalotrina en la línea W-1K está mediada por P450 y que la sobreexpresión de CYP6A51 puede desempeñar un papel importante, aunque se necesitan más evidencias para establecer una asociación directa de la resistencia con este gen. Hemos estudiado la herencia, el coste biológico y la estabilidad de la resistencia a malatión mediada por la mutación G328A y la duplicación del gen Ccace2 (una de las copias lleva la mutación G328A). La línea susceptible C, donde no se encuentra la mutación G328A (genotipo S/S), se cruzó con dos isolíneas establecidas para representar genotipos únicos correspondientes a los dos mecanismos de resistencia asociados a la molécula diana: 1) la isolínea 267Y (genotipo R/R) establecida a partir de una pareja que portaba la mutación G328A en homocigosis; 2) la isolínea 306TY (genotipo RS/RS) establecida a partir de una pareja que portaba en homocigosis la duplicación del gen Ccace2. No se realizaron cruces recíprocos, ya que mediante experimentos de hibridación in situ en cromosomas politénicos se pudo comprobar que el locus de la AChE y la duplicación (probablemente en tándem) se localizan en el cromosoma autosómico 2L. La susceptibilidad al malatión de los parentales resistentes (R/R o RS/RS) y susceptibles (S/S), los cruces F1 (S/R, S/RS y R/RS) y los retrocruzamientos indican que la resistencia a malatión es semi-dominante en ambos casos. Sin embargo, nuestros resultados no fueron concluyentes con respecto a la naturaleza monogénica de la resistencia a malatión en estas isolíneas. Por lo tanto, no podemos descartar que otros genes que contribuyan a la resistencia, además de la mutación G328A (isolínea 267Y) y de la duplicación del gen Ccace2 (isolínea 306TY), puedan haber sido seleccionados durante el proceso de selección de 267Y y 306TY. Varios parámetros biológicos fueron evaluados para determinar si estos dos mecanismos de resistencia a malatión suponen un coste biológico para los genotipos resistentes. Individuos con genotipo R/R mostraron un retraso en el tiempo de desarrollo de huevo a pupa, un peso de pupa reducido y una menor longevidad de los adultos, en comparación con los individuos con genotipo S/S. Sin embargo, el peso de pupa de los individuos con genotipo RS/RS fue similar al de los individuos S/S, y su desarrollo de huevo a pupa intermedio entre S/S y R/R. Estas diferencias en el coste biológico pueden estar relacionadas con la reducción de la eficiencia catalítica de la AChE mutada en los individuos R/R, y al efecto compensatorio que la copia no mutada del gen tiene en los individuos RS/RS que portan la duplicación. La estabilidad de la resistencia a malatión mediada por la mutación G328A y la duplicación se analizó mediante el seguimiento de los caracteres de resistencia en la progenie de retrocruzamientos S/R x R/R y S/RS x RS/RS a lo largo de varias generaciones en ausencia de presión de selección con insecticidas. Nuestros resultados muestran que la frecuencia del alelo que porta la mutación G328A disminuyó desde 67,5% en la primera generación del retrocruzamiento S/R x R/R (75% esperado, asumiendo segregación mendeliana y que sólo hay dos alelos: uno mutado y otro no mutado) a 12% después de 10 generaciones. Por el contrario, la frecuencia de la duplicación sólo disminuyó desde 75% en en la primera generación del retrocruzamiento S/RS x RS/RS (75% esperado, asumiendo segregación Mendeliana y que la duplicación segrega como un único alelo) a 50% en el mismo período, lo que indica que la duplicación es más estable que la mutación. Asimismo, se analizó la presencia de la mutación y de la duplicación en poblaciones de campo recogidas en seis localidades en 2004-2007, cuando todavía se usaba el malatión, y se comparó con poblaciones recogidas en los mismos campos en 2010, un año después de la prohibición del malatión en la Unión Europea. La frecuencia media del genotipo susceptible (S/S) aumentó del 55,9% en el período 2004-2007 a 70,8% en 2010, mientras que la frecuencia de los genotipos portadores de la mutación en homocigosis o heterocigosis (R/R y S/R) disminuyó del 30,4 al 9,2%, los que llevan la duplicación en homocigosis o heterocigosis (RS/RS y S/RS) aumentaron levemente desde 12,8 hasta 13,3%, y los que llevan a la vez la mutación y la duplicación (R/RS) también aumentaron del 1 al 6,7%. Estos resultados son consistentes con que la duplicación del gen Ccace2 (con una copia con la mutación G328A y la otra copia no mutada) es más ventajosa que la mutación G328A por si sola, ya que la duplicación mantiene los niveles de resistencia a la vez que limita el coste biológico. Para investigar la asociación entre la resistencia a malatión y las mutaciones encontradas previamente en CcE7, hemos generado isolíneas con mutaciones específicas seleccionadas por su ubicación próxima a la entrada al centro activo de la enzima. La isolínea Sm2 (procedente de una hembra heterocigota para la mutación V96L y un macho homocigoto para el alelo no mutado) mantuvo altos niveles de resistencia a malatión, incluso después de 30 generaciones sin presión de selección. Por el contrario, la isolínea 267Y (compuesta por individuos homocigotos para la mutación L267Y) y la línea 306TY (compuesta por individuos homocigotos para la doble mutación R306T-N307Y) mostraron una reducción significativa en los niveles de resistencia. También hemos encontrado que la resistencia a malatión de la línea Sm2 fue parcialmente revertida por DEF y TPP, y que Sm2 mostró una reducción significativa en la actividad MTB, como se ha descrito en otras especies que muestran resistencia específica a malatión mediada por aliesterases. Además, fue posible asociar la presencia de la mutación V96L en individuos de la línea Sm2 con supervivencia a una concentración discriminante de malatión (5,000 ppm) y con una baja actividad MTB. Estos resultados sugieren una posible relación entre la mutación V96L en la aliesterasa CcE7 y la resistencia a malatión, aunque todavía no se puede concluir que la resistencia es causada por esta mutación, siendo necesarios más estudios para comprobar su contribución a la resistencia. En conclusión, se ha encontrado por primera vez resistencia a lambda-cihalotrina en poblaciones de campo de C. capitata, y nuestros resultados indican que las P450 son el principal mecanismo de resistencia en la línea W-1K. Esta situación se suma al caso previamente descrito de resistencia en campo a malatión asociada a la mutación G328A, a la duplicación del gen Ccace2 (una de las copias lleva la mutación G328A) y a resistencia metabólica mediada por esterasas. Nuestros resultados también indican que la alteración de la molécula diana AChE parece ser responsable de un cierto nivel de resistencia a malatión en C. capitata, que puede ser estimada como aproximadamente 25-40 veces para la mutación G328A y 40-60 veces para la duplicación; mientras que la resistencia mediada por esterasas y que ha sido asociada en este estudio con la mutación V96L en CcE7 puede conferir un efecto multiplicativo (por un factor de 5 a 10) aumentando la resistencia a malatión a 200-400 veces. Por otra parte, hemos demostrado que los insectos resistentes que llevan la duplicación tienen un coste biológico menor y muestran una estabilidad mayor que aquellos con la mutación G328A en ausencia de presión de selección con insecticidas. Esto representa un escenario en el que los genotipos con la duplicación permanecerán en el campo en frecuencias bajas a moderadas, pero podrían ser seleccionados rápidamente si se utilizan malatión u otros insecticidas que muestren resistencia cruzada. Estos resultados tienen importantes implicaciones para los programas de manejo de la resistencia, ya que el repertorio de insecticidas eficaces para el control de C. capitata es cada vez más limitado. Además, la coexistencia de múltiples mecanismos de resistencia en poblaciones de campo ofrece el potencial para desarrollar resistencia frente a otros insecticidas disponibles para el control de esta plaga. Estrategias para de manejo de la resistencia basadas en la alternancia de insecticidas con diferentes modos de acción, y su combinación con otros métodos de control, deben ser implementadas para evitar el desarrollo de resistencia en campo. ABSTRACT The Mediterranean fruit fly (Medfly), Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann, 1824) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is one of the most economically damaging pests of citrus and other fruit crops worldwide. Control measures in citrus crops in Spain from the mid 90's to 2009 were mainly based on field monitoring of population levels and aerial and ground treatments with malathion bait sprays. However, since the withdrawal of phytosanitary products containing malathion in the European Union in 2009, lambda-cyhalothrin and spinosad have become the most widely used insecticides for the control of this pest. Resistance to malathion was found in Spanish field populations of C. capitata in 2004-2005. This resistance has been associated with a mutation G328A in the acetylcholinesterase (AChE), a duplication of the AChE gene (Ccace2) (one of the copies bearing the mutation G328A), and metabolic resistance mediated by esterases (probably aliesterases). However, when the gene of the aliesterase CcE7 was sequenced in individuals from a malathion resistant strain of C. capitata, none of the known G137D and/or W251L/S/G mutations associated to resistance in other species were found, though other mutations were detected when compared with individuals from a susceptible strain. Noteworthy, a lambda-cyhalothrin resistant strain (W-1K) was obtained by selecting a field-derived malathion resistant strain (W-4Km) with lambda-cyhalothrin. Moreover, it has also been demonstrated the capacity of this species to develop resistance to spinosad by laboratory selection. The multiple resistance mechanisms identified highlight the potential of this species to develop resistance to insecticides with different modes of action. The objectives of this PhD Thesis are: 1) to assess the susceptibility of Spanish field populations of C. capitata to lambda-cyhalothrin and to elucidate the resistance mechanisms in the W-1Kλ strain; 2) to compare the inheritance, fitness cost and stability of the malathion resistance mediated by the G328A mutation and the duplication of the Ccace2 gene (with one of the copies bearing the mutation G328A); and 3) to investigate the role of the aliesterase CcαE7 mutations in malathion resistance. All these studies will be of use for devising proactive resistance management strategies that could prevent or delay resistance development and would increase the sustainability of the insecticides available for Medfly control. Our results indicate that Spanish field populations of C. capitata have developed resistance to lambda-cyhalothrin. The LC50 values estimated for populations collected at Comunidad Valenciana, Cataluña and Andalucía ranged from 129 ppm to 287 ppm, equaling or overpassing the recommended concentration for field treatments (125 ppm). These results contrast with those obtained with three different Tunisian field populations, whose susceptibility was similar to that of the control (C) strain. The lambda-cyhalothrin resistant W-1K strain has been further selected to achieve a 205-fold resistance compared to the C strain, being its LC50 (4,224 ppm) more than 30 times higher than the recommended concentration for field applications. This resistant strain showed high levels of cross-resistance to deltamethrin (150-fold) and etofenprox (240-fold), suggesting that the development of resistance to lambda-cyhalothrin may compromise the effectiveness of other pyrethroids for the control of this species. We have shown that the resistance of the W-1K strain to lambda-cyhalothrin was almost completely suppressed by the synergist PBO, indicating that P450 enzymes play a very important role in resistance to this insecticide. However, both susceptible C and resistant W-1K flies were knocked down after topical treatment with lambda-cyhalothrin, suggesting that kdr resistance mediated by alterations of the target site is not playing a major role. Metabolic resistance mediated by P450 was further analyzed by comparing the expression of 53 genes of the families CYP4, CYP6, CYP9 and CYP12 in adults flies from the resistant W-1K and the susceptible C strains. We found that the gene CYP6A51 (GenBank accession number XM_004534804) was overexpressed (13-18-fold) in the W-1K strain. Moreover, the expression of the CYP6A51 gene was induced when adults of the W-1K and C strains were treated with lambda-cyhalothrin. However, no significant differences were obtained between susceptible C and resistant W-1K strains for the quantity of P450 and for the activity of NADPH- cytochrome c reductase measured in microsomal fractions obtained from abdomens. Moreover, we failed to correlate the metabolism of deltamethrin, analyzed in vitro by incubating this insecticide with microsomal fractions, with the resistance level against this pyrethroid observed in bioassays with W-1K. The sequencing of the 5´UTR region of the CYP6A51 gene failed in finding an alteration in the promoter region (-500 bp from translation start site) that could explain overexpression in the W-1K strain. All data obtained suggest that resistance to lambda-cyhalothrin in the W- 1K strain is mediated by P450 and that overexpression of CYP6A51 may play a major role, although further evidences are needed to establish a direct association of resistance with this gene. We have studied the inheritance, fitness cost and stability of the malathion resistance mediated by the G328A mutation and the duplication of the Ccace2 gene (with one of the copies bearing the mutation G328A). The malathion-susceptible C strain where the G328A mutation is not found (S/S genotype) was crossed with two isolines established to represent unique genotypes corresponding to the two target-site resistance mechanisms: 1) the 267Y isoline (genotype R/R) was established from a couple bearing the mutation G328A in homozygosis; and 2) the 306TY isoline (genotype RS/RS) was established from a couple being homozygous for the duplication of the Ccace2 gene. Reciprocal crosses have not been performed, since in situ hybridization on polythene chromosomes showed that the AChE locus and the duplication (most probably in tandem) are placed at the autosomal chromosome 2L. Mortality responses to malathion of resistant isolines (R/R or RS/RS) and susceptible (S/S) genotypes, F1 crosses (S/R, S/RS, and R/RS), and the back-crosses indicated that resistance to malathion is inherited as a semi-dominant trait in both cases. However, our results were not conclusive about the monogenic nature of the resistance to malathion in these isolines. Thus, we can not discard that other genes contributing to resistance, in addition to the mutation G328A (isoline 267Y) and the duplication of the Ccace2 gene (isoline 306TY), may have been selected during the selection process of 267Y and 306TY. Several biological parameters were evaluated to determine if these two malathion resistance mechanisms impose a fitness cost for resistant genotypes. Individuals with genotype R/R have a reduced fitness in terms of developmental time from egg to pupa, pupal weight and adult longevity, when compared to susceptible individuals (genotype S/S). Interestingly, the fitness cost was substantially diminished in individuals with genotype RS/RS. These differences in fitness may be related to the reduction of the catalytic efficiency of mutated AChE in individuals R/R, and the compensatory effect that the non-mutated copy of the gene has on individuals RS/RS bearing the duplication. The stability of malathion reistance associated with the mutation G328A or the duplication was analyzed by following these resistant traits in the progeny of the back-crosses S/RS x RS/RS and S/R x R/R over consecutive generations in the absence of insecticide selection pressure. Our results show that the frequency of the allele bearing the mutation G328A decreased from 67.5% at the first generation of the back-cross S/R x R/R (75% expected, assuming Mendelian segregation and that there are only two alleles: one mutated and the other non-mutated) to 12% after 10 generations. By contrast, the frequency of the duplication only declined from 75% at the first generation of the back-cross S/RS x RS/RS (75% expected, assuming Mendelian segregation and that the duplication segregates as an unique allele) to 50% in the same period, indicating that the duplication is more stable than the mutation. The presence of the mutation and the duplication was analyzed in field populations collected in six localities in 2004-2007, when malathion was still used, and compared to populations collected in the same fields in 2010, one year after the prohibition of malathion in the European Union. The average frequency of the susceptible genotype (S/S) increased from 55.9% in the period 2004-2007 to 70.8% in 2010, whereas the frequency of those genotypes carrying the mutation in homozygosis or heterozygosis (R/R and S/R) declined from 30.4 to 9.2%, those carrying the duplication in homozygosis or heterozygosis (RS/RS and S/RS) increased slightly from 12.8 to 13.3%, and those carrying both the mutation and the duplication (R/RS) also increased from 1 to 6.7%. These results are consistent with the duplication of the Ccace2 gene (with one of the copies bearing the mutation G328A and the other copy non-mutated) being more advantageous than the G328A mutation alone by maintaining resistance while restoring part of the fitness. In order to investigate the association of malathion resistance with mutations previously found in the aliesterase CcE7, we have generated isolines bearing specific mutations selected by their putative location near the upper part of the active site gorge of the enzyme. The isoline Sm2 (originating from a female heterozygous for the mutation V96L and a male homozygous for the non-mutated allele) kept high levels of resistance to malathion, even after 30 generations without selection pressure. On the contrary, the isoline 267Y (composed by individuals homozygous for the mutation L267Y) and the strain 306TY (composed by homozygous for the double mutation R306T-N307Y) showed a significant reduction in the levels of resistance. We have found also that resistance to malathion in the Sm2 isoline was partially reverted by DEF and TPP, and that Sm2 showed a significant reduction in MTB activity, as reported for other species showing malathion-specific resistance mediated by aliesterases. Besides, it was possible to associate the presence of the mutation V96L in individuals from the Sm2 isoline with both survival to a discriminating concentration of malathion (5,000 ppm) and low MTB activity. Our results point out to a possible connection betwen the mutation V96L in the aliesterase CcE7 and resistance to malathion, though we can not yet conclude that the resistance is caused by the mutation, being needed further work to understand its contribution to resistance. In conclusion, resistance to lambda-cyhalothrin has been found for the first time in field populations of C. capitata, and metabolic resistance mediated by P450 appears to be the main resistance mechanism in the resistant strain W-1K. These findings add to the previously reported case of field resistance to malathion, associated to the G328A mutation and the duplication of the Ccace2 gene (with one of the copies bearing the mutation G328A) and to metabolic resistance mediated by esterases. Our results also indicate that altered target site AChE appears to be responsible for a certain level of resistance to malathion in C. capitata, that can be estimated as about 25-40-fold for the mutation G328A and 40-60-fold for the duplication; whereas metabolic resistance mediated by esterases and associated in this study with the mutation V96L in CcE7 may confer a multiplicative effect (by a factor of 5 to10) increasing malathion resistance to 200-400-fold. Moreover, we have shown that resistant insects carrying the duplication have better fitness and exhibit a higher stability than those with the mutation G328A in the absence of insecticide pressure. This represents a scenario where genotypes with the duplication will remain in the field at low to moderate frequencies, but could be rapidly selected if malathion or other insecticides showing cross-resistance are used. These findings have important implications for resistance management programs, as the repertoire of effective insecticides for C. capitata control is becoming very limited. Besides, multiple resistance mechanisms coexisting in field populations provide the potential to develop resistance to other available insecticides for the control of this pest. Appropriate resistance management strategies based on the alternation of insecticides with different modes of action, and their combination with other control methods, must then be implemented to avoid the evolution of resistance in the field.

Estimation of nitrogen budgets for contrasting catchments at the landscape scale.

A comprehensive assessment of nitrogen (N) flows at the landscape scale is fundamental to understand spatial interactions in the N cascade and to inform the development of locally optimised N management strategies. To explore these interactions, complete N budgets were estimated for two contrasting hydrological catchments (dominated by agricultural grassland vs. semi-natural peat-dominated moorland), forming part of an intensively studied landscape in southern Scotland. Local scale atmospheric dispersion modelling and detailed farm and field inventories provided high resolution estimations of input fluxes. Direct agricultural inputs (i.e. grazing excreta, N2 fixation, organic and synthetic fertiliser) accounted for most of the catchment N inputs, representing 82% in the grassland and 62% in the moorland catchment, while atmospheric deposition made a significant contribution, particularly in the moorland catchment, contributing 38% of the N inputs. The estimated catchment N budgets highlighted areas of key uncertainty, particularly N2 exchange and stream N export. The resulting N balances suggest that the study catchments have a limited capacity to store N within soils, vegetation and groundwater. The "catchment N retention", i.e. the amount of N which is either stored within the catchment or lost through atmospheric emissions, was estimated to be 13% of the net anthropogenic input in the moorland and 61% in the grassland catchment. These values contrast with regional scale estimates: Catchment retentions of net anthropogenic input estimated within Europe at the regional scale range from 50% to 90%, with an average of 82% (Billen et al., 2011). This study emphasises the need for detailed budget analyses to identify the N status of European landscapes.

Managing drought economic effects through insurance schemes based on local water availability.

In many arid or semi-arid Mediterranean regions, agriculture is dependent on irrigation. When hydrological drought phenomena occur, farmers suffer from water shortages, incurring important economic losses. Yet, there is not agricultural insurance available for lack of irrigation water. This work attempts to evaluate hydrological drought risk and its economic impact on crop production in order to provide the basis for the design of drought insurance for irrigated arable crops. With this objective a model that relates water availability with expected yields is developed. Crop water requirements are calculated from evapotranspiration, effective rainfall and soil water balance. FAO?s methodology and AquaCrop software have been used to establish the relationship between water allocations and crop yields. The analysis is applied to the irrigation zone ?Riegos de Bardenas?, which is located in the Ebro river basin, northeast Spain, to the main arable crops in the area. Results show the fair premiums of different hydrological drought insurance products. Whole-farm insurance or irrigation district insurance should be preferable to crop specific insurance due to the drought management strategies used by farmers.

Integrated assessment of policy interventions for promoting sustainable irrigation in semi-arid environments: A hydro-economic modeling approach

Sustaining irrigated agriculture to meet food production needs while maintaining aquatic ecosystems is at the heart of many policy debates in various parts of the world, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. Researchers and practitioners are increasingly calling for integrated approaches, and policy-makers are progressively supporting the inclusion of ecological and social aspects in water management programs. This paper contributes to this policy debate by providing an integrated economic-hydrologic modeling framework that captures the socio-economic and environmental effects of various policy initiatives and climate variability. This modeling integration includes a risk-based economic optimization model and a hydrologic water management simulation model that have been specified for the Middle Guadiana basin, a vulnerable drought-prone agro-ecological area with highly regulated river systems in southwest Spain. Namely, two key water policy interventions were investigated: the implementation of minimum environmental flows (supported by the European Water Framework Directive, EU WFD), and a reduction in the legal amount of water delivered for irrigation (planned measure included in the new Guadiana River Basin Management Plan, GRBMP, still under discussion). Results indicate that current patterns of excessive water use for irrigation in the basin may put environmental flow demands at risk, jeopardizing the WFD s goal of restoring the ?good ecological status? of water bodies by 2015. Conflicts between environmental and agricultural water uses will be stressed during prolonged dry episodes, and particularly in summer low-flow periods, when there is an important increase of crop irrigation water requirements. Securing minimum stream flows would entail a substantial reduction in irrigation water use for rice cultivation, which might affect the profitability and economic viability of small rice-growing farms located upstream in the river. The new GRBMP could contribute to balance competing water demands in the basin and to increase economic water productivity, but might not be sufficient to ensure the provision of environmental flows as required by the WFD. A thoroughly revision of the basin s water use concession system for irrigation seems to be needed in order to bring the GRBMP in line with the WFD objectives. Furthermore, the study illustrates that social, economic, institutional, and technological factors, in addition to bio-physical conditions, are important issues to be considered for designing and developing water management strategies. The research initiative presented in this paper demonstrates that hydro-economic models can explicitly integrate all these issues, constituting a valuable tool that could assist policy makers for implementing sustainable irrigation policies.