Participatory modelling to support decision making in water management. A case study in the middle Guadiana basin, Spain.

The objective of this research was the implementation of a participatory process for the development of a tool to support decision making in water management. The process carried out aims at attaining an improved understanding of the water system and an encouragement of the exchange of knowledge and views between stakeholders to build a shared vision of the system. In addition, the process intends to identify impacts of possible solutions to given problems, which will help to take decisions.

Effect of positioning on the accuracy of decision making of association football top-class referees and assistant referees during competitive matches

The aim of this study was to examine the effect of positioning on the correctness of decision making of top-class referees and assistant referees during international games. Match analyses were carried out during the Fe´de´ration Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) Confederations Cup 2009 and 380 foul play incidents and 165 offside situations were examined. The error percentage for the referees when indicating the incidents averaged 14%. The lowest error percentage occurred in the central area of the field, where the collaboration of the assistant referee is limited, and was achieved when indicating the incidents from a distance of 11–15 m, whereas this percentage peaked (23%) in the last 15-min match period. The error rate for the assistant referees was 13%. Distance of the assistant referee to the offside line did not have an impact on the quality of the offside decision. The risk of making incorrect decisions was reduced when the assistant referees viewed the offside situations from an angle between 46 and 608. Incorrect offside decisions occurred twice as often in the second as in the first half of the games. Perceptual-cognitive training sessions specific to the requirements of the game should be implemented in the weekly schedule of football officials to reduce the overall error rate.

The Learning of the Mathematical Models to Aid Decision Making in the High Level Engineering Schools?

At present, in the University curricula in most countries, the decision theory and the mathematical models to aid decision making is not included, as in the graduate program like in Doctored and Master´s programs. In the Technical School of High Level Agronomic Engineers of the Technical University of Madrid (ETSIA-UPM), the need to offer to the future engineers training in a subject that could help them to take decisions in their profession was felt. Along the life, they will have to take a lot of decisions. Ones, will be important and others no. In the personal level, they will have to take several very important decisions, like the election of a career, professional work, or a couple, but in the professional field, the decision making is the main role of the Managers, Politicians and Leaders. They should be decision makers and will be paid for it. Therefore, nobody can understand that such a professional that is called to practice management responsibilities in the companies, does not take training in such an important matter. For it, in the year 2000, it was requested to the University Board to introduce in the curricula an optional qualified subject of the second cycle with 4,5 credits titled " Mathematical Methods for Making Decisions ". A program was elaborated, the didactic material prepared and programs as Maple, Lingo, Math Cad, etc. installed in several IT classrooms, where the course will be taught. In the course 2000-2001 this subject was offered with a great acceptance that exceeded the forecasts of capacity and had to be prepared more classrooms. This course in graduate program took place in the Department of Applied Mathematics to the Agronomic Engineering, as an extension of the credits dedicated to Mathematics in the career of Engineering.

MOIRA-PLUS use in decision making on the long-term management of contaminated freshwater bodies and catchments

In the mid-long-term after a nuclear accident, the contamination of drinking water sources, fish and other aquatic foodstuffs, irrigation supplies and people?s exposure during recreational activities may create considerable public concern, even though dose assessment may in certain situations indicate lesser importance than for other sources, as clearly experienced in the aftermath of past accidents. In such circumstances there are a number of available countermeasure options, ranging from specific chemical treatment of lakes to bans on fish ingestion or on the use of water for crop irrigation. The potential actions can be broadly grouped into four main categories, chemical, biological, physical and social. In some cases a combination of actions may be the optimal strategy and a decision support system (DSS) like MOIRA-PLUS can be of great help to optimise a decision. A further option is of course not to take any remedial actions, although this may also have significant socio-economic repercussions which should be adequately evaluated. MOIRA-PLUS is designed to allow for a reliable assessment of the long-term evolution of the radiological situation and of feasible alternative rehabilitation strategies, including an objective evaluation of their social, economic and ecological impacts in a rational and comprehensive manner. MOIRA-PLUS also features a decision analysis methodology, making use of multi-attribute analysis, which can take into account the preferences and needs of different types of stakeholders. The main functions and elements of the system are described summarily. Also the conclusions from end-user?s experiences with the system are discussed, including exercises involving the organizations responsible for emergency management and the affected services, as well as different local and regional stakeholders. MOIRAPLUS has proven to be a mature system, user friendly and relatively easy to set up. It can help to better decisionmaking by enabling a realistic evaluation of the complete impacts of possible recovery strategies. Also, the interaction with stakeholders has allowed identifying improvements of the system that have been recently implemented.

Systematic Approach for the selection of monitoring technologies in CO2 geological storage projects. Application of multicriteria decision making

Geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) has been proposed as a viable means for reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Once injection begins, a program for measurement, monitoring, and verification (MMV) of CO2 distribution is required in order to: a) research key features, effects and processes needed for risk assessment; b) manage the injection process; c) delineate and identify leakage risk and surface escape; d) provide early warnings of failure near the reservoir; and f) verify storage for accounting and crediting. The selection of the methodology of monitoring (characterization of site and control and verification in the post-injection phase) is influenced by economic and technological variables. Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) refers to a methodology developed for making decisions in the presence of multiple criteria. MCDM as a discipline has only a relatively short history of 40 years, and it has been closely related to advancements on computer technology. Evaluation methods and multicriteria decisions include the selection of a set of feasible alternatives, the simultaneous optimization of several objective functions, and a decision-making process and evaluation procedures that must be rational and consistent. The application of a mathematical model of decision-making will help to find the best solution, establishing the mechanisms to facilitate the management of information generated by number of disciplines of knowledge. Those problems in which decision alternatives are finite are called Discrete Multicriteria Decision problems. Such problems are most common in reality and this case scenario will be applied in solving the problem of site selection for storing CO2. Discrete MCDM is used to assess and decide on issues that by nature or design support a finite number of alternative solutions. Recently, Multicriteria Decision Analysis has been applied to hierarchy policy incentives for CCS, to assess the role of CCS, and to select potential areas which could be suitable to store. For those reasons, MCDM have been considered in the monitoring phase of CO2 storage, in order to select suitable technologies which could be techno-economical viable. In this paper, we identify techniques of gas measurements in subsurface which are currently applying in the phase of characterization (pre-injection); MCDM will help decision-makers to hierarchy the most suitable technique which fit the purpose to monitor the specific physic-chemical parameter.

The analytic hierarchy process to support decision-making processes in infrastructure projects with social impact

There is an increasing awareness among all kinds of organisations (in business,government and civil society) about the benefits of jointly working with stakeholders to satisfy both their goals and the social demands placed upon them. This is particularly the case within corporate social responsibility (CSR) frameworks. In this regard, multi-criteria tools for decision-making like the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) described in the paper can be useful for the building relationships with stakeholders. Since these tools can reveal decision-maker’s preferences, the integration of opinions from various stakeholders in the decision-making process may result in better and more innovative solutions with significant shared value. This paper is based on ongoing research to assess the feasibility of an AHP-based model to support CSR decisions in large infrastructure projects carried out by Red Electrica de España, the sole transmission agent and operator of the Spanishelectricity system.

A multi-criteria optimization and decision-making approach for improvement of food engineering processes.

The objective of this study was to propose a multi-criteria optimization and decision-making technique to solve food engineering problems. This technique was demostrated using experimental data obtained on osmotic dehydratation of carrot cubes in a sodium chloride solution. The Aggregating Functions Approach, the Adaptive Random Search Algorithm, and the Penalty Functions Approach were used in this study to compute the initial set of non-dominated or Pareto-optimal solutions. Multiple non-linear regression analysis was performed on a set of experimental data in order to obtain particular multi-objective functions (responses), namely water loss, solute gain, rehydration ratio, three different colour criteria of rehydrated product, and sensory evaluation (organoleptic quality). Two multi-criteria decision-making approaches, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Tabular Method (TM), were used simultaneously to choose the best alternative among the set of non-dominated solutions. The multi-criteria optimization and decision-making technique proposed in this study can facilitate the assessment of criteria weights, giving rise to a fairer, more consistent, and adequate final compromised solution or food process. This technique can be useful to food scientists in research and education, as well as to engineers involved in the improvement of a variety of food engineering processes.

Supporting decision making under uncertainty: Development of a participatory integrated model for water management in the middle Guadiana river basin.

Following the Integrated Water Resources Management approach, the European Water Framework Directive demands Member States to develop water management plans at the catchment level. Those plans have to integrate the different interests and must be developed with stakeholder participation. To face these requirements, managers need tools to assess the impacts of possible management alternatives on natural and socio-economic systems. These tools should ideally be able to address the complexity and uncertainties of the water system, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation. The objective of our research was to develop a participatory integrated assessment model, based on the combination of a crop model, an economic model and a participatory Bayesian network, with an application in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, in Spain. The methodology is intended to capture the complexity of water management problems, incorporating the relevant sectors, as well as the relevant scales involved in water management decision making. The integrated model has allowed us testing different management, market and climate change scenarios and assessing the impacts of such scenarios on the natural system (crops), on the socio-economic system (farms) and on the environment (water resources). Finally, this integrated assessment modelling process has allowed stakeholder participation, complying with the main requirements of current European water laws.

Participatory modelling to support decision making in water management under uncertainty: Two comparative case studies in the Guadiana river basin, Spain.

A participatory modelling process has been conducted in two areas of the Guadiana river (the upper and the middle sub-basins), in Spain, with the aim of providing support for decision making in the water management field. The area has a semi-arid climate where irrigated agriculture plays a key role in the economic development of the region and accounts for around 90% of water use. Following the guidelines of the European Water Framework Directive, we promote stakeholder involvement in water management with the aim to achieve an improved understanding of the water system and to encourage the exchange of knowledge and views between stakeholders in order to help building a shared vision of the system. At the same time, the resulting models, which integrate the different sectors and views, provide some insight of the impacts that different management options and possible future scenarios could have. The methodology is based on a Bayesian network combined with an economic model and, in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, with a crop model. The resulting integrated modelling framework is used to simulate possible water policy, market and climate scenarios to find out the impacts of those scenarios on farm income and on the environment. At the end of the modelling process, an evaluation questionnaire was filled by participants in both sub-basins. Results show that this type of processes are found very helpful by stakeholders to improve the system understanding, to understand each others views and to reduce conflict when it exists. In addition, they found the model an extremely useful tool to support management. The graphical interface, the quantitative output and the explicit representation of uncertainty helped stakeholders to better understand the implications of the scenario tested. Finally, the combination of different types of models was also found very useful, as it allowed exploring in detail specific aspects of the water management problems.

Decision-Making Mechanism to Organize the Agenda of a Guide-Robot

One of the major challenges in evolutionary robotics is constituted by the need of the robot being able to make decisions on its own, in accordance with the multiple tasks programmed, optimizing its timings and power. In this paper, we present a new automatic decision making mechanism for a robot guide that allows the robot to make the best choice in order to reach its aims, performing its tasks in an optimal way. The election of which is the best alternative is based on a series of criteria and restrictions of the tasks to perform. The software developed in the project has been verified on the tour-guide robot Urbano. The most important aspect of this proposal is that the design uses learning as the means to optimize the quality in the decision making. The modeling of the quality index of the best choice to perform is made using fuzzy logic and it represents the beliefs of the robot, which continue to evolve in order to match the "external reality”. This fuzzy system is used to select the most appropriate set of tasks to perform during the day. With this tool, the tour guide-robot prepares its agenda daily, which satisfies the objectives and restrictions, and it identifies the best task to perform at each moment. This work is part of the ARABOT project of the Intelligent Control Research Group at the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid to create "awareness" in a robot guide.

Self perception of decision making competence in spanish football players

Background: It is known that competence to make decisions is a fundamental aspect of sport competition. Objective: This study has analyzed the decision profile of a sample of Spanish football players of different levels of expertise. Methods: 690 Spanish football players of national and international level completed the decision making questionnaire, which cover three dimensions ? perceived decision competence, decision anxiety and commitment with decision learning. MANCOVA and ANOVA analysis were carried out to analyse the differences in each dimension based on the level of expertise. Results: Results showed that perception of decision making competence increased and the anxiety decreased with the level of expertise. Conclusions: This study confirmed the usefulness of this questionnaire in the process of training for coaches and sport psychologists.

Greenfield shopping center development. The integration between environmental features, building design and investment analysis at the decision making stage

The Shopping centre is a long term investment in which Greenfield development decisions are often taken based on risks analysis regarding construction costs, location, competition, market and an expected DCF. Furthermore, integration between the building design, project planning, operational costs and investment analysis is not entirely considered by the investor at the decision making stage. The absence of such information tends to produce certain negative impacts on the future running costs and annual maintenance of the building, especially on energy demand and other occupancy expenses paid by the tenants to the landlord. From the investor´s point of view, this blind spot in strategy development will possibly decrease their profit margin as changes in the occupancy expenses[ ] have a direct outcome on the profit margin. In order to try to reduce some higher operating cost components such as energy use and other utility savings as well as their CO2 emissions, quite a few income properties worldwide have some type of environmental label such as BREEAM and LEED. The drawback identified in this labelling is that usually the investments required to get an ecolabel are high and the investor finds no direct evidence that it increases market value. However there is research on certified commercial properties (especially offices) that shows better performance in terms of occupancy rate and rental cost (Warren-Myers, 2012). Additionally, Sayce (2013) says that the certification only provides a quick reference point i.e. the lack of a certificate does not indicate that a building is not sustainable or efficient. Based on the issues described above, this research compares important components of the development stages such as investments costs, concept/ strategy development as well as the current investor income and property value. The subjects for this analysis are a shopping centre designed with passive cooling/bioclimatic strategies evaluated at the decision making stage, a certified regional shopping centre and a non-certified standard regional shopping centre. Moreover, the proposal intends to provide decision makers with some tools for linking green design features to the investment analysis in order to optimize the decision making process when looking into cost savings and design quality.

Self-perceptions of decision making competence in Spanish football players

Background: It is known that competence to make decisions is a fundamental aspect of sport competition. Objective: This study has analyzed the decision profile of a sample of Spanish football players of different levels of expertise. Methods: 690 Spanish football players of national and international level completed the decision mak- ing questionnaire, which cover three dimensions ? perceived decision competence, decision anxiety and commit- ment with decision learning. MANCOVA and ANOVA analysis were carried out to analyse the differences in each dimension based on the level of expertise. Results: Results showed that perception of decision making competence increased and the anxiety decreased with the level of expertise. Conclusions: This study confirmed the usefulness of this questionnaire in the process of training for coaches and sport psychologists.

Accessibility instruments for planning practice: bridging the gap between academic research and decision-making.

One of the core objectives of urban planning practice is to provide spatial equity in terms of opportunities and use of public space and facilities. Accessibility is the element that serves this purpose as a concept linking the reciprocal relationship between transport and land use, thus shaping individual potential mobility to reach the desired destinations. Accessibility concepts are increasingly acknowledged as fundamental to understand the functioning of cities and urban regions. Indeed, by introducing them in planning practice, better solutions can be achieved in terms of spatial equity. The COST Action TU1002 "Accessibility instruments for planning practice" was specifically designed to address the gap between scientific research in measuring and modelling accessibility, and the current use of indicators of accessibility in urban planning practice. This paper shows the full process of introducing an easily understandable measure of accessibility to planning practitioners in Madrid, which is one of the case studies of the above-mentioned COST action. Changes in accessibility after the opening of a new metro line using contour measures were analyzed and then presented to a selection of urban planners and practitioners in Madrid as part of a workshop to evaluate the usefulness of this tool for planning practice. Isochrone maps were confirmed as an effective tool, as their utility can be supplemented by other indicators, and being GIS-based, it can be easily computed (when compared with transport models) and integrated with other datasets.

A group decision-making methodology with incomplete individual beliefs applied to e-Democracy

We consider the situation where there are several alternatives for investing a quantity of money to achieve a set of objectives. The choice of which alternative to apply depends on how citizens and political representatives perceive that such objectives should be achieved. All citizens with the right to vote can express their preferences in the decision-making process. These preferences may be incomplete. Political representatives represent the citizens who have not taken part in the decision-making process. The weight corresponding to political representatives depends on the number of citizens that have intervened in the decision-making process. The methodology we propose needs the participants to specify for each alternative how they rate the different attributes and the relative importance of attributes. On the basis of this information an expected utility interval is output for each alternative. To do this, an evidential reasoning approach is applied. This approach improves the insightfulness and rationality of the decision-making process using a belief decision matrix for problem modeling and the Dempster?Shafer theory of evidence for attribute aggregation. Finally, we propose using the distances of each expected utility interval from the maximum and the minimum utilities to rank the alternative set. The basic idea is that an alternative is ranked first if its distance to the maximum utility is the smallest, and its distance to the minimum utility is the greatest. If only one of these conditions is satisfied, a distance ratio is then used.