Assessing the impact of adaptive accessibility on the optimal transport policy implementation by using an integrated land-use/transport model for Madrid

Accessibility is an essential concept widely used to evaluate the impact of land-use and transport strategies in transport and urban planning. Accessibility is typically evaluated by using a transport model or a land-use model independently or successively without a feedback loop, thus neglecting the interaction effects between the two systems and the induced competition effects among opportunities due to accessibility improvements. More than a mere methodological curiosity, failure to account for land- use/transport interactions and the competition effect may result in large underestimation of the policy effects. With the recent development of land-use and transport interaction (LUTI) models, there is a growing interest in using these models to adequately measure accessibility and evaluate its impact. The current study joins this research stream by embedding an accessibility measure in a LUTI model with two main aims. The first aim is to account for adaptive accessibility, namely the adjustment of the potential accessibility due to the effect of competition among opportunities (e.g., workplaces) as a result of improved accessibility. LUTI models are particularly suitable for assessing adaptive accessibility because the competition factor is a function of the number of jobs, which is related to land-use attractiveness and the number of workers which is related, among other factors, to the transport demand. The second aim is to identify the optimal implementation scenario of policy measures on the basis of the potential and adaptive accessibility and analyse the results in terms of social welfare and accessibility. The metropolitan area of Madrid is used as a case-study and two transport policy instruments, namely a cordon toll and bus frequency increase, have been chosen for the simulation study in order to present the usefulness of the approach to urban planners and policy makers. The MARS model (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator) calibrated for Madrid was employed as the analysis tool. The impact of accessibility is embedded in the model through a social welfare function that includes not only costs and benefits to both road users and transport operators, but also costs and benefits for the government and society in general (external costs). An optimisation procedure is performed by the MARS model for maximizing the value of objective function in order to find the best (optimal) policy imp lementations intensity (i.e., price, frequency). Last, the two policy strategies are evaluated in terms of their accessibility. Results show that the accessibility with competition factor influences the optimal policy implementation level and also generates different results in terms of social welfare. In addition, mapping the difference between the potential and the adaptive accessibility indicators shows that the main changes occur in areas where there is a strong competition among land-use opportunities.

Caracterización de Sistemas intensivos en Software desde un punto de vista de innovación=Characterizing Software-intensive Systems from the innovation point of view

La innovación en Sistemas Intesivos en Software está alcanzando relevancia por múltiples razones: el software está presente en sectores como automóvil, teléfonos móviles o salud. Las empresas necesitan conocer aquellos factores que afectan a la innovación para incrementar las probabilidades de éxito en el desarrollo de sus productos y, la evaluación de productos sofware es un mecanismo potente para capturar este conocimiento. En consecuencia, las empresas necesitan evaluar sus productos desde la perpectiva de innovación para reducir la distancia entre los productos desarrollados y el mercado. Esto es incluso más relevante en el caso de los productos intensivos en software, donde el tiempo real, la oportunidad, complejidad, interoperabilidad, capacidad de respuesta y compartción de recursos son características críticas de los nuevos sistemas. La evaluación de la innovación de productos ya ha sido estudiada y se han definido algunos esquemas de evaluación pero no son específicos para Sistemas intensivos en Sofwtare; además, no se ha alcanzado consenso en los factores ni el procedimiento de evaluación. Por lo tanto, tiene sentido trabajar en la definición de un marco de evaluación de innovación enfocado a Sistemas intesivos en Software. Esta tesis identifica los elementos necesarios para construir in marco para la evaluación de de Sistemas intensivos en Software desde el punto de vista de la innovación. Se han identificado dos componentes como partes del marco de evaluación: un modelo de referencia y una herramienta adaptativa y personalizable para la realización de la evaluación y posicionamiento de la innovación. El modelo de referencia está compuesto por cuatro elementos principales que caracterizan la evaluación de innovación de productos: los conceptos, modelos de innovación, cuestionarios de evaluación y la evaluación de productos. El modelo de referencia aporta las bases para definir instancias de los modelos de evaluación de innovación de productos que pueden se evaluados y posicionados en la herramienta a través de cuestionarios y que de forma automatizada aporta los resultados de la evaluación y el posicionamiento respecto a la innovación de producto. El modelo de referencia ha sido rigurosamente construido aplicando modelado conceptual e integración de vistas junto con la aplicación de métodos cualitativos de investigación. La herramienta ha sido utilizada para evaluar productos como Skype a través de la instanciación del modelo de referencia. ABSTRACT Innovation in Software intensive Systems is becoming relevant for several reasons: software is present embedded in many sectors like automotive, robotics, mobile phones or heath care. Firms need to have knowledge about factors affecting the innovation to increase the probability of success in their product development and the assessment of innovation in software products is a powerful mechanism to capture this knowledge. Therefore, companies need to assess products from an innovation perspective to reduce the gap between their developed products and the market. This is even more relevant in the case of SiSs, where real time, timeliness, complexity, interoperability, reactivity, and resource sharing are critical features of a new system. Many authors have analysed product innovation assessment and some schemas have been developed but they are not specific to SiSs; in addition, there is no consensus about the factors or the procedures for performing an assessment. Therefore, it has sense to work in the definition of a customized software product innovation evaluation framework. This thesis identifies the elements needed to build a framework to assess software products from the innovation perspective. Two components have been identified as part of the framework to assess Software intensive Systems from the innovation perspective: a reference-model and an adaptive and customizable tool to perform the assessment and to position product innovation. The reference-model is composed by four main elements characterizing product innovation assessment: concepts, innovation models, assessment questionnaires and product assessment. The reference model provides the umbrella to define instances of product innovation assessment models that can be assessed and positioned through questionnaires in the proposed tool that also provides automation in the assessment and positioning of innovation. The reference-model has been rigorously built by applying conceptual modelling and view integration integrated with qualitative research methods. The tool has been used to assess products like Skype through models instantiated from the reference-model.

Assessment of innovative measures implemented in European bus systems using key performance indicators

This paper reports the results of the assessment of a range of measures implemented in bus systems in five European cities to improve the use of public transport by increasing its attractiveness and enhancing its image in urban areas. This research was conducted as part of the EBSF project (European Bus System of the Future) from 2008 to 2012. New buses (prototypes), new vehicle and infrastructure technologies, and operational best practices were introduced, all of which were combined in a system approach. The measures were assessed using multicriteria analysis to simultaneously evaluate a certain number of criteria that need to be aggregated. Each criterion is measured by one or more key performance indicators (KPI) calculated in two scenarios (reference scenario, with no measure implemented; and project scenario, with the implementation of some measures), in order to evaluate the difference in the KPI performance between the reference and project scenario. The results indicate that the measures produce a greater benefit in issues related to bus system productivity and customer satisfaction, with the greatest impact on aspects of perceptions of comfort, cleanliness and quality of service, information to passengers and environmental issues. The study also reveals that the implementation of several measures has greater social utility than very specific and isolated measures.

Technical evolution of 3d modular construction from the nineteenth century to world war II

3D Modular construction is poorly known and scarcely published in technical literature. In spite of that there are an increasing number of manufacturers offering their products in different countries. This method has largely evolved from early examples such as the American Gold Rush prefabrication in the nineteenth century, the Sears precut homes or Voisin´s prototypes for modular homes, to the end of the first half of the twentieth century. In this period a non negligible number of attempts in 3D modular construction have been carried out, ranging from theoretical proposals to several hundred or thousand units produced. Selected examples of modular architecture will be analyses in order to illustrate its technical evolution, concerning materials, structure, transportation and on site assembly. Success and failure factors of the different systems will be discussed. Conclusions about building criteria shown in them and their applicability in current architecture will be drawn.

A simulation environment for bio-inspired heterogeneous chained modular robots

This paper presents a new simulation environment aimed at heterogeneous chained modular robots. This simulator allows testing the feasibility of the design, checking how modules are going to perform in the field and verifying hardware, electronics and communication designs before the prototype is built, saving time and resources. The paper shows how the simulator is built and how it can be set up to adapt to new designs. It also gives some examples of its use showing different heterogeneous modular robots running in different environments.

Methodology for estimating building integrated photovoltaics electricity production under shadowing conditions and case study

Building integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) systems are a relevant application of photovoltaics. In countries belonging to the International Energy Agency countries, 24% of total installed PV power corresponds to BIPV systems. Electricity losses caused by shadows over the PV generator have a significant impact on the performance of BIPV systems, being the major source of electricity losses. This paper presents a methodology to estimate electricity produced by BIPV systems which incorporates a model for shading losses. The proposed methodology has been validated on a one year study with real data from two similar PV systems placed on the south façade of a building belonging to the Technical University of Madrid. This study has covered all weather conditions: clear, partially overcast and fully overcast sky. Results of this study are shown at different time scales, resulting that the errors committed by the best performing model are below 1% and 3% in annual and daily electricity estimation. The use of models which account for the reduced performance at low irradiance levels also improves the estimation of generated electricity.

MAIA: an event-based modular architecture for intelligent agents

Online services are no longer isolated. The release of public APIs and technologies such as web hooks are allowing users and developers to access their information easily. Intelligent agents could use this information to provide a better user experience across services, connecting services with smart automatic. behaviours or actions. However, agent platforms are not prepared to easily add external sources such as web services, which hinders the usage of agents in the so-called Evented or Live Web. As a solution, this paper introduces an event-based architecture for agent systems, in accordance with the new tendencies in web programming. In particular, it is focused on personal agents that interact with several web services. With this architecture, called MAIA, connecting to new web services does not involve any modification in the platform.

An ontology-driven communication architecture for spontaneous interoperability in Home Automation systems

Current solutions to the interoperability problem in Home Automation systems are based on a priori agreements where protocols are standardized and later integrated through specific gateways. In this regards, spontaneous interoperability, or the ability to integrate new devices into the system with minimum planning in advance, is still considered a major challenge that requires new models of connectivity. In this paper we present an ontology-driven communication architecture whose main contribution is that it facilitates spontaneous interoperability at system model level by means of semantic integration. The architecture has been validated through a prototype and the main challenges for achieving complete spontaneous interoperability are also evaluated.

Simulation of an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle with Chemical-Looping Combustion and CO2 sequestration

Chemical-looping combustion allows an integration of CO2 capture in a thermal power plant without energy penalty; secondly, a less exergy destruction in the combustion chemical transformation is achieved, leading to a greater overall thermal efficiency. This paper focus on the study of the energetic performance of this concept of combustion in an integrated gasification combined cycle power plant when synthesis gas is used as fuel for the gas turbines. After thermodynamic modelling and optimization of some cycle parameters, the power plant performance is evaluated under diverse working conditions and compared to a conventional integrated gasification combined cycle with precombustion capture. Energy savings in CO2 capture and storage has been quantified. The overall efficiency increase is found to be significant and even notable, reaching values of around 7%. In order to analyze the influence of syngas composition on the results, different H2-content fuels are considered.

An integrated modeling approach to assess the impact on road freight transport demand of allowing longer and heavier vehicles (LHVs) in Spain

The assessment on introducing Longer and Heavier Vehicles (LHVs) on the road freight transport demand is performed in this paper by applying an integrated modeling approach composed of a Random Utility-Based Multiregional Input-Output model (RUBMRIO) and a road transport network model. The approach strongly supports the concept that changes in transport costs derived from the LHVs allowance as well as the economic structure of regions have both direct and indirect effects on the road freight transport system. In addition, we estimate the magnitude and extent of demand changes in the road freight transportation system by using the commodity-based structure of the approach to identify the effect on traffic flows and on pollutant emissions over the whole network of Spain by considering a sensitivity analysis of the main parameters which determine the share of Heavy-Goods Vehicles (HGVs) and LHVs. The results show that the introduction of LHVs will strengthen the competitiveness of the road haulage sector by reducing costs, emissions, and the total freight vehicles required.

Design and implementation of a modular interface to integrate CLP and tabled execution

Logic programming (LP) is a family of high-level programming languages which provides high expressive power. With LP, the programmer writes the properties of the result and / or executable specifications instead of detailed computation steps. Logic programming systems which feature tabled execution and constraint logic programming have been shown to increase the declarativeness and efficiency of Prolog, while at the same time making it possible to write very expressive programs. Tabled execution avoids infinite failure in some cases, while improving efficiency in programs which repeat computations. CLP reduces the search tree and brings the power of solving (in)equations over arbitrary domains. Similarly to the LP case, CLP systems can also benefit from the power of tabling. Previous implementations which take ful advantage of the ideas behind tabling (e.g., forcing suspension, answer subsumption, etc. wherever it is necessary to avoid recomputation and terminate whenever possible) did not offer a simple, well-documented, easy-to-understand interface. This would be necessary to make the integratation of arbitrary CLP solvers into existing tabling systems possible. This clearly hinders a more widespread usage of the combination of both facilities. In this thesis we examine the requirements that a constraint solver must fulfill in order to be interfaced with a tabling system. We propose and implement a framework, which we have called Mod TCLP, with a minimal set of operations (e.g., entailment checking and projection) which the constraint solver has to provide to the tabling engine. We validate the design of Mod TCLP by a series of use cases: we re-engineer a previously existing tabled constrain domain (difference constraints) which was connected in an ad-hoc manner with the tabling engine in Ciao Prolog; we integrateHolzbauer’s CLP(Q) implementationwith Ciao Prolog’s tabling engine; and we implement a constraint solver over (finite) lattices. We evaluate its performance with several benchmarks that implement a simple abstract interpreter whose fixpoint is reached by means of tabled execution, and whose domain operations are handled by the constraint over (finite) lattices, where TCLP avoids recomputing subsumed abstractions.---ABSTRACT---La programación lógica con restricciones (CLP) y la tabulación son extensiones de la programación lógica que incrementan la declaratividad y eficiencia de Prolog, al mismo tiempo que hacen posible escribir programasmás expresivos. Las implementaciones anteriores que integran completamente ambas extensiones, incluyendo la suspensión de la ejecución de objetivos siempre que sea necesario, la implementación de inclusión (subsumption) de respuestas, etc., en todos los puntos en los que sea necesario para evitar recomputaciones y garantizar la terminación cuando sea posible, no han proporcionan una interfaz simple, bien documentada y fácil de entender. Esta interfaz es necesaria para permitir integrar resolutores de CLP arbitrarios en el sistema de tabulación. Esto claramente dificulta un uso más generalizado de la integración de ambas extensiones. En esta tesis examinamos los requisitos que un resolutor de restricciones debe cumplir para ser integrado con un sistema de tabulación. Proponemos un esquema (y su implementación), que hemos llamadoMod TCLP, que requiere un reducido conjunto de operaciones (en particular, y entre otras, entailment y proyección de almacenes de restricciones) que el resolutor de restricciones debe ofrecer al sistema de tabulación. Hemos validado el diseño de Mod TCLP con una serie de casos de uso: la refactorización de un sistema de restricciones (difference constraints) previamente conectado de un modo ad-hoc con la tabulación de Ciao Prolog; la integración del sistema de restricciones CLP(Q) de Holzbauer; y la implementación de un resolutor de restricciones sobre retículos finitos. Hemos evaluado su rendimiento con varios programas de prueba, incluyendo la implementación de un intérprete abstracto que alcanza su punto fijo mediante el sistema de tabulación y en el que las operaciones en el dominio son realizadas por el resolutor de restricciones sobre retículos (finitos) donde TCLP evita la recomputación de valores abstractos de las variables ya contenidos en llamadas anteriores.

Improved static analysis and verification of energy consumption and other resources via abstract interpretation

Resource analysis aims at inferring the cost of executing programs for any possible input, in terms of a given resource, such as the traditional execution steps, time ormemory, and, more recently energy consumption or user defined resources (e.g., number of bits sent over a socket, number of database accesses, number of calls to particular procedures, etc.). This is performed statically, i.e., without actually running the programs. Resource usage information is useful for a variety of optimization and verification applications, as well as for guiding software design. For example, programmers can use such information to choose different algorithmic solutions to a problem; program transformation systems can use cost information to choose between alternative transformations; parallelizing compilers can use cost estimates for granularity control, which tries to balance the overheads of task creation and manipulation against the benefits of parallelization. In this thesis we have significatively improved an existing prototype implementation for resource usage analysis based on abstract interpretation, addressing a number of relevant challenges and overcoming many limitations it presented. The goal of that prototype was to show the viability of casting the resource analysis as an abstract domain, and howit could overcome important limitations of the state-of-the-art resource usage analysis tools. For this purpose, it was implemented as an abstract domain in the abstract interpretation framework of the CiaoPP system, PLAI.We have improved both the design and implementation of the prototype, for eventually allowing an evolution of the tool to the industrial application level. The abstract operations of such tool heavily depend on the setting up and finding closed-form solutions of recurrence relations representing the resource usage behavior of program components and the whole program as well. While there exist many tools, such as Computer Algebra Systems (CAS) and libraries able to find closed-form solutions for some types of recurrences, none of them alone is able to handle all the types of recurrences arising during program analysis. In addition, there are some types of recurrences that cannot be solved by any existing tool. This clearly constitutes a bottleneck for this kind of resource usage analysis. Thus, one of the major challenges we have addressed in this thesis is the design and development of a novel modular framework for solving recurrence relations, able to combine and take advantage of the results of existing solvers. Additionally, we have developed and integrated into our novel solver a technique for finding upper-bound closed-form solutions of a special class of recurrence relations that arise during the analysis of programs with accumulating parameters. Finally, we have integrated the improved resource analysis into the CiaoPP general framework for resource usage verification, and specialized the framework for verifying energy consumption specifications of embedded imperative programs in a real application, showing the usefulness and practicality of the resulting tool.---ABSTRACT---El Análisis de recursos tiene como objetivo inferir el coste de la ejecución de programas para cualquier entrada posible, en términos de algún recurso determinado, como pasos de ejecución, tiempo o memoria, y, más recientemente, el consumo de energía o recursos definidos por el usuario (por ejemplo, número de bits enviados a través de un socket, el número de accesos a una base de datos, cantidad de llamadas a determinados procedimientos, etc.). Ello se realiza estáticamente, es decir, sin necesidad de ejecutar los programas. La información sobre el uso de recursos resulta muy útil para una gran variedad de aplicaciones de optimización y verificación de programas, así como para asistir en el diseño de los mismos. Por ejemplo, los programadores pueden utilizar dicha información para elegir diferentes soluciones algorítmicas a un problema; los sistemas de transformación de programas pueden utilizar la información de coste para elegir entre transformaciones alternativas; los compiladores paralelizantes pueden utilizar las estimaciones de coste para realizar control de granularidad, el cual trata de equilibrar el coste debido a la creación y gestión de tareas, con los beneficios de la paralelización. En esta tesis hemos mejorado de manera significativa la implementación de un prototipo existente para el análisis del uso de recursos basado en interpretación abstracta, abordando diversos desafíos relevantes y superando numerosas limitaciones que éste presentaba. El objetivo de dicho prototipo era mostrar la viabilidad de definir el análisis de recursos como un dominio abstracto, y cómo se podían superar las limitaciones de otras herramientas similares que constituyen el estado del arte. Para ello, se implementó como un dominio abstracto en el marco de interpretación abstracta presente en el sistema CiaoPP, PLAI. Hemos mejorado tanto el diseño como la implementación del mencionado prototipo para posibilitar su evolución hacia una herramienta utilizable en el ámbito industrial. Las operaciones abstractas de dicha herramienta dependen en gran medida de la generación, y posterior búsqueda de soluciones en forma cerrada, de relaciones recurrentes, las cuales modelizan el comportamiento, respecto al consumo de recursos, de los componentes del programa y del programa completo. Si bien existen actualmente muchas herramientas capaces de encontrar soluciones en forma cerrada para ciertos tipos de recurrencias, tales como Sistemas de Computación Algebraicos (CAS) y librerías de programación, ninguna de dichas herramientas es capaz de tratar, por sí sola, todos los tipos de recurrencias que surgen durante el análisis de recursos. Existen incluso recurrencias que no las puede resolver ninguna herramienta actual. Esto constituye claramente un cuello de botella para este tipo de análisis del uso de recursos. Por lo tanto, uno de los principales desafíos que hemos abordado en esta tesis es el diseño y desarrollo de un novedoso marco modular para la resolución de relaciones recurrentes, combinando y aprovechando los resultados de resolutores existentes. Además de ello, hemos desarrollado e integrado en nuestro nuevo resolutor una técnica para la obtención de cotas superiores en forma cerrada de una clase característica de relaciones recurrentes que surgen durante el análisis de programas lógicos con parámetros de acumulación. Finalmente, hemos integrado el nuevo análisis de recursos con el marco general para verificación de recursos de CiaoPP, y hemos instanciado dicho marco para la verificación de especificaciones sobre el consumo de energía de programas imperativas embarcados, mostrando la viabilidad y utilidad de la herramienta resultante en una aplicación real.

High brightness semiconductor lasers as transmitters for space lidar systems

High brightness semiconductor lasers are potential transmitters for future space lidar systems. In the framework of the European Project BRITESPACE, we propose an all-semiconductor laser source for an Integrated Path Differential Absorption lidar system for column-averaged measurements of atmospheric CO2 in future satellite missions. The complete system architecture has to be adapted to the particular emission properties of these devices using a Random Modulated Continuous Wave approach. We present the initial experimental results of the InGaAsP/InP monolithic Master Oscillator Power Amplifiers, providing the ON and OFF wavelengths close to the selected absorption line around 1572 nm.

Development and implementation of an air quality integrated assessment modelling system for the Iberian Peninsula

La mejora de la calidad del aire es una tarea eminentemente interdisciplinaria. Dada la gran variedad de ciencias y partes involucradas, dicha mejora requiere de herramientas de evaluación simples y completamente integradas. La modelización para la evaluación integrada (integrated assessment modeling) ha demostrado ser una solución adecuada para la descripción de los sistemas de contaminación atmosférica puesto que considera cada una de las etapas involucradas: emisiones, química y dispersión atmosférica, impactos ambientales asociados y potencial de disminución. Varios modelos de evaluación integrada ya están disponibles a escala continental, cubriendo cada una de las etapas antesmencionadas, siendo el modelo GAINS (Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) el más reconocido y usado en el contexto europeo de toma de decisiones medioambientales. Sin embargo, el manejo de la calidad del aire a escala nacional/regional dentro del marco de la evaluación integrada es deseable. Esto sin embargo, no se lleva a cabo de manera satisfactoria con modelos a escala europea debido a la falta de resolución espacial o de detalle en los datos auxiliares, principalmente los inventarios de emisión y los patrones meteorológicos, entre otros. El objetivo de esta tesis es presentar los desarrollos en el diseño y aplicación de un modelo de evaluación integrada especialmente concebido para España y Portugal. El modelo AERIS (Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated system for Spain) es capaz de cuantificar perfiles de concentración para varios contaminantes (NO2, SO2, PM10, PM2,5, NH3 y O3), el depósito atmosférico de especies de azufre y nitrógeno así como sus impactos en cultivos, vegetación, ecosistemas y salud como respuesta a cambios porcentuales en las emisiones de sectores relevantes. La versión actual de AERIS considera 20 sectores de emisión, ya sea equivalentes a sectores individuales SNAP o macrosectores, cuya contribución a los niveles de calidad del aire, depósito e impactos han sido modelados a través de matrices fuentereceptor (SRMs). Estas matrices son constantes de proporcionalidad que relacionan cambios en emisiones con diferentes indicadores de calidad del aire y han sido obtenidas a través de parametrizaciones estadísticas de un modelo de calidad del aire (AQM). Para el caso concreto de AERIS, su modelo de calidad del aire “de origen” consistió en el modelo WRF para la meteorología y en el modelo CMAQ para los procesos químico-atmosféricos. La cuantificación del depósito atmosférico, de los impactos en ecosistemas, cultivos, vegetación y salud humana se ha realizado siguiendo las metodologías estándar establecidas bajo los marcos internacionales de negociación, tales como CLRTAP. La estructura de programación está basada en MATLAB®, permitiendo gran compatibilidad con software típico de escritorio comoMicrosoft Excel® o ArcGIS®. En relación con los niveles de calidad del aire, AERIS es capaz de proveer datos de media anual y media mensual, así como el 19o valor horario más alto paraNO2, el 25o valor horario y el 4o valor diario más altos para SO2, el 36o valor diario más alto para PM10, el 26o valor octohorario más alto, SOMO35 y AOT40 para O3. En relación al depósito atmosférico, el depósito acumulado anual por unidad de area de especies de nitrógeno oxidado y reducido al igual que de azufre pueden ser determinados. Cuando los valores anteriormente mencionados se relacionan con características del dominio modelado tales como uso de suelo, cubiertas vegetales y forestales, censos poblacionales o estudios epidemiológicos, un gran número de impactos puede ser calculado. Centrándose en los impactos a ecosistemas y suelos, AERIS es capaz de estimar las superaciones de cargas críticas y las superaciones medias acumuladas para especies de nitrógeno y azufre. Los daños a bosques se calculan como una superación de los niveles críticos de NO2 y SO2 establecidos. Además, AERIS es capaz de cuantificar daños causados por O3 y SO2 en vid, maíz, patata, arroz, girasol, tabaco, tomate, sandía y trigo. Los impactos en salud humana han sido modelados como consecuencia de la exposición a PM2,5 y O3 y cuantificados como pérdidas en la esperanza de vida estadística e indicadores de mortalidad prematura. La exactitud del modelo de evaluación integrada ha sido contrastada estadísticamente con los resultados obtenidos por el modelo de calidad del aire convencional, exhibiendo en la mayoría de los casos un buen nivel de correspondencia. Debido a que la cuantificación de los impactos no es llevada a cabo directamente por el modelo de calidad del aire, un análisis de credibilidad ha sido realizado mediante la comparación de los resultados de AERIS con los de GAINS para un escenario de emisiones determinado. El análisis reveló un buen nivel de correspondencia en las medias y en las distribuciones probabilísticas de los conjuntos de datos. Las pruebas de verificación que fueron aplicadas a AERIS sugieren que los resultados son suficientemente consistentes para ser considerados como razonables y realistas. En conclusión, la principal motivación para la creación del modelo fue el producir una herramienta confiable y a la vez simple para el soporte de las partes involucradas en la toma de decisiones, de cara a analizar diferentes escenarios “y si” con un bajo coste computacional. La interacción con políticos y otros actores dictó encontrar un compromiso entre la complejidad del modeladomedioambiental con el carácter conciso de las políticas, siendo esto algo que AERIS refleja en sus estructuras conceptual y computacional. Finalmente, cabe decir que AERIS ha sido creado para su uso exclusivo dentro de un marco de evaluación y de ninguna manera debe ser considerado como un sustituto de los modelos de calidad del aire ordinarios. ABSTRACT Improving air quality is an eminently inter-disciplinary task. The wide variety of sciences and stakeholders that are involved call for having simple yet fully-integrated and reliable evaluation tools available. Integrated AssessmentModeling has proved to be a suitable solution for the description of air pollution systems due to the fact that it considers each of the involved stages: emissions, atmospheric chemistry, dispersion, environmental impacts and abatement potentials. Some integrated assessment models are available at European scale that cover each of the before mentioned stages, being the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model the most recognized and widely-used within a European policy-making context. However, addressing air quality at the national/regional scale under an integrated assessment framework is desirable. To do so, European-scale models do not provide enough spatial resolution or detail in their ancillary data sources, mainly emission inventories and local meteorology patterns as well as associated results. The objective of this dissertation is to present the developments in the design and application of an Integrated Assessment Model especially conceived for Spain and Portugal. The Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated system for Spain (AERIS) is able to quantify concentration profiles for several pollutants (NO2, SO2, PM10, PM2.5, NH3 and O3), the atmospheric deposition of sulfur and nitrogen species and their related impacts on crops, vegetation, ecosystems and health as a response to percentual changes in the emissions of relevant sectors. The current version of AERIS considers 20 emission sectors, either corresponding to individual SNAP sectors or macrosectors, whose contribution to air quality levels, deposition and impacts have been modeled through the use of source-receptor matrices (SRMs). Thesematrices are proportionality constants that relate emission changes with different air quality indicators and have been derived through statistical parameterizations of an air qualitymodeling system (AQM). For the concrete case of AERIS, its parent AQM relied on the WRF model for meteorology and on the CMAQ model for atmospheric chemical processes. The quantification of atmospheric deposition, impacts on ecosystems, crops, vegetation and human health has been carried out following the standard methodologies established under international negotiation frameworks such as CLRTAP. The programming structure isMATLAB ® -based, allowing great compatibility with typical software such as Microsoft Excel ® or ArcGIS ® Regarding air quality levels, AERIS is able to provide mean annual andmean monthly concentration values, as well as the indicators established in Directive 2008/50/EC, namely the 19th highest hourly value for NO2, the 25th highest daily value and the 4th highest hourly value for SO2, the 36th highest daily value of PM10, the 26th highest maximum 8-hour daily value, SOMO35 and AOT40 for O3. Regarding atmospheric deposition, the annual accumulated deposition per unit of area of species of oxidized and reduced nitrogen as well as sulfur can be estimated. When relating the before mentioned values with specific characteristics of the modeling domain such as land use, forest and crops covers, population counts and epidemiological studies, a wide array of impacts can be calculated. When focusing on impacts on ecosystems and soils, AERIS is able to estimate critical load exceedances and accumulated average exceedances for nitrogen and sulfur species. Damage on forests is estimated as an exceedance of established critical levels of NO2 and SO2. Additionally, AERIS is able to quantify damage caused by O3 and SO2 on grapes, maize, potato, rice, sunflower, tobacco, tomato, watermelon and wheat. Impacts on human health aremodeled as a consequence of exposure to PM2.5 and O3 and quantified as losses in statistical life expectancy and premature mortality indicators. The accuracy of the IAM has been tested by statistically contrasting the obtained results with those yielded by the conventional AQM, exhibiting in most cases a good agreement level. Due to the fact that impacts cannot be directly produced by the AQM, a credibility analysis was carried out for the outputs of AERIS for a given emission scenario by comparing them through probability tests against the performance of GAINS for the same scenario. This analysis revealed a good correspondence in the mean behavior and the probabilistic distributions of the datasets. The verification tests that were applied to AERIS suggest that results are consistent enough to be credited as reasonable and realistic. In conclusion, the main reason thatmotivated the creation of this model was to produce a reliable yet simple screening tool that would provide decision and policy making support for different “what-if” scenarios at a low computing cost. The interaction with politicians and other stakeholders dictated that reconciling the complexity of modeling with the conciseness of policies should be reflected by AERIS in both, its conceptual and computational structures. It should be noted however, that AERIS has been created under a policy-driven framework and by no means should be considered as a substitute of the ordinary AQM.

Optimization of the Integrated Guidance and Control for a Dual Aerodynamic Control Missile

Las futuras misiones para misiles aire-aire operando dentro de la atmósfera requieren la interceptación de blancos a mayores velocidades y más maniobrables, incluyendo los esperados vehículos aéreos de combate no tripulados. La intercepción tiene que lograrse desde cualquier ángulo de lanzamiento. Una de las principales discusiones en la tecnología de misiles en la actualidad es cómo satisfacer estos nuevos requisitos incrementando la capacidad de maniobra del misil y en paralelo, a través de mejoras en los métodos de guiado y control modernos. Esta Tesis aborda estos dos objetivos simultáneamente, al proponer un diseño integrando el guiado y el control de vuelo (autopiloto) y aplicarlo a misiles con control aerodinámico simultáneo en canard y cola. Un primer avance de los resultados obtenidos ha sido publicado recientemente en el Journal of Aerospace Engineering, en Abril de 2015, [Ibarrondo y Sanz-Aranguez, 2015]. El valor del diseño integrado obtenido es que permite al misil cumplir con los requisitos operacionales mencionados empleando únicamente control aerodinámico. El diseño propuesto se compara favorablemente con esquemas más tradicionales, consiguiendo menores distancias de paso al blanco y necesitando de menores esfuerzos de control incluso en presencia de ruidos. En esta Tesis se demostrará cómo la introducción del doble mando, donde tanto el canard como las aletas de cola son móviles, puede mejorar las actuaciones de un misil existente. Comparado con un misil con control en cola, el doble control requiere sólo introducir dos servos adicionales para accionar los canards también en guiñada y cabeceo. La sección de cola será responsable de controlar el misil en balanceo mediante deflexiones diferenciales de los controles. En el caso del doble mando, la complicación añadida es que los vórtices desprendidos de los canards se propagan corriente abajo y pueden incidir sobre las superficies de cola, alterando sus características de control. Como un primer aporte, se ha desarrollado un modelo analítico completo para la aerodinámica no lineal de un misil con doble control, incluyendo la caracterización de este efecto de acoplamiento aerodinámico. Hay dos modos de funcionamiento en picado y guiñada para un misil de doble mando: ”desviación” y ”opuesto”. En modo ”desviación”, los controles actúan en la misma dirección, generando un cambio inmediato en la sustentación y produciendo un movimiento de translación en el misil. La respuesta es rápida, pero en el modo ”desviación” los misiles con doble control pueden tener dificultades para alcanzar grandes ángulos de ataque y altas aceleraciones laterales. Cuando los controles actúan en direcciones opuestas, el misil rota y el ángulo de ataque del fuselaje se incrementa para generar mayores aceleraciones en estado estacionario, aunque el tiempo de respuesta es mayor. Con el modelo aerodinámico completo, es posible obtener una parametrización dependiente de los estados de la dinámica de corto periodo del misil. Debido al efecto de acoplamiento entre los controles, la respuesta en bucle abierto no depende linealmente de los controles. El autopiloto se optimiza para obtener la maniobra requerida por la ley de guiado sin exceder ninguno de los límites aerodinámicos o mecánicos del misil. Una segunda contribución de la tesis es el desarrollo de un autopiloto con múltiples entradas de control y que integra la aerodinámica no lineal, controlando los tres canales de picado, guiñada y cabeceo de forma simultánea. Las ganancias del autopiloto dependen de los estados del misil y se calculan a cada paso de integración mediante la resolución de una ecuación de Riccati de orden 21x21. Las ganancias obtenidas son sub-óptimas, debido a que una solución completa de la ecuación de Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman no puede obtenerse de manera práctica, y se asumen ciertas simplificaciones. Se incorpora asimismo un mecanismo que permite acelerar la respuesta en caso necesario. Como parte del autopiloto, se define una estrategia para repartir el esfuerzo de control entre el canard y la cola. Esto se consigue mediante un controlador aumentado situado antes del bucle de optimización, que minimiza el esfuerzo total de control para maniobrar. Esta ley de alimentación directa mantiene al misil cerca de sus condiciones de equilibrio, garantizando una respuesta transitoria adecuada. El controlador no lineal elimina la respuesta de fase no-mínima característica de la cola. En esta Tesis se consideran dos diseños para el guiado y control, el control en Doble-Lazo y el control Integrado. En la aproximación de Doble-Lazo, el autopiloto se sitúa dentro de un bucle interior y se diseña independientemente del guiado, que conforma el bucle más exterior del control. Esta estructura asume que existe separación espectral entre los dos, esto es, que los tiempos de respuesta del autopiloto son mucho mayores que los tiempos característicos del guiado. En el estudio se combina el autopiloto desarrollado con una ley de guiado óptimo. Los resultados obtenidos demuestran que se consiguen aumentos muy importantes en las actuaciones frente a misiles con control canard o control en cola, y que la interceptación, cuando se lanza cerca del curso de colisión, se consigue desde cualquier ángulo alrededor del blanco. Para el misil de doble mando, la estrategia óptima resulta en utilizar el modo de control opuesto en la aproximación al blanco y utilizar el modo de desviación justo antes del impacto. Sin embargo la lógica de doble bucle no consigue el impacto cuando hay desviaciones importantes con respecto al curso de colisión. Una de las razones es que parte de la demanda de guiado se pierde, ya que el misil solo es capaz de modificar su aceleración lateral, y no tiene control sobre su aceleración axial, a no ser que incorpore un motor de empuje regulable. La hipótesis de separación mencionada, y que constituye la base del Doble-Bucle, puede no ser aplicable cuando la dinámica del misil es muy alta en las proximidades del blanco. Si se combinan el guiado y el autopiloto en un único bucle, la información de los estados del misil está disponible para el cálculo de la ley de guiado, y puede calcularse la estrategia optima de guiado considerando las capacidades y la actitud del misil. Una tercera contribución de la Tesis es la resolución de este segundo diseño, la integración no lineal del guiado y del autopiloto (IGA) para el misil de doble control. Aproximaciones anteriores en la literatura han planteado este sistema en ejes cuerpo, resultando en un sistema muy inestable debido al bajo amortiguamiento del misil en cabeceo y guiñada. Las simplificaciones que se tomaron también causan que el misil se deslice alrededor del blanco y no consiga la intercepción. En nuestra aproximación el problema se plantea en ejes inerciales y se recurre a la dinámica de los cuaterniones, eliminado estos inconvenientes. No se limita a la dinámica de corto periodo del misil, porque se construye incluyendo de modo explícito la velocidad dentro del bucle de optimización. La formulación resultante en el IGA es independiente de la maniobra del blanco, que sin embargo se ha de incluir en el cálculo del modelo en Doble-bucle. Un típico inconveniente de los sistemas integrados con controlador proporcional, es el problema de las escalas. Los errores de guiado dominan sobre los errores de posición del misil y saturan el controlador, provocando la pérdida del misil. Este problema se ha tratado aquí con un controlador aumentado previo al bucle de optimización, que define un estado de equilibrio local para el sistema integrado, que pasa a actuar como un regulador. Los criterios de actuaciones para el IGA son los mismos que para el sistema de Doble-Bucle. Sin embargo el problema matemático resultante es muy complejo. El problema óptimo para tiempo finito resulta en una ecuación diferencial de Riccati con condiciones terminales, que no puede resolverse. Mediante un cambio de variable y la introducción de una matriz de transición, este problema se transforma en una ecuación diferencial de Lyapunov que puede resolverse mediante métodos numéricos. La solución resultante solo es aplicable en un entorno cercano del blanco. Cuando la distancia entre misil y blanco es mayor, se desarrolla una solución aproximada basada en la solución de una ecuación algebraica de Riccati para cada paso de integración. Los resultados que se han obtenido demuestran, a través de análisis numéricos en distintos escenarios, que la solución integrada es mejor que el sistema de Doble-Bucle. Las trayectorias resultantes son muy distintas. El IGA preserva el guiado del misil y consigue maximizar el uso de la propulsión, consiguiendo la interceptación del blanco en menores tiempos de vuelo. El sistema es capaz de lograr el impacto donde el Doble-Bucle falla, y además requiere un orden menos de magnitud en la cantidad de cálculos necesarios. El efecto de los ruidos radar, datos discretos y errores del radomo se investigan. El IGA es más robusto, resultando menos afectado por perturbaciones que el Doble- Bucle, especialmente porque el núcleo de optimización en el IGA es independiente de la maniobra del blanco. La estimación de la maniobra del blanco es siempre imprecisa y contaminada por ruido, y degrada la precisión de la solución de Doble-Bucle. Finalmente, como una cuarta contribución, se demuestra que el misil con guiado IGA es capaz de realizar una maniobra de defensa contra un blanco que ataque por su cola, sólo con control aerodinámico. Las trayectorias estudiadas consideran una fase pre-programada de alta velocidad de giro, manteniendo siempre el misil dentro de su envuelta de vuelo. Este procedimiento no necesita recurrir a soluciones técnicamente más complejas como el control vectorial del empuje o control por chorro para ejecutar esta maniobra. En todas las demostraciones matemáticas se utiliza el producto de Kronecker como una herramienta practica para manejar las parametrizaciones dependientes de variables, que resultan en matrices de grandes dimensiones. ABSTRACT Future missions for air to air endo-atmospheric missiles require the interception of targets with higher speeds and more maneuverable, including forthcoming unmanned supersonic combat vehicles. The interception will need to be achieved from any angle and off-boresight launch conditions. One of the most significant discussions in missile technology today is how to satisfy these new operational requirements by increasing missile maneuvering capabilities and in parallel, through the development of more advanced guidance and control methods. This Thesis addresses these two objectives by proposing a novel optimal integrated guidance and autopilot design scheme, applicable to more maneuverable missiles with forward and rearward aerodynamic controls. A first insight of these results have been recently published in the Journal of Aerospace Engineering in April 2015, [Ibarrondo and Sanz-Aránguez, 2015]. The value of this integrated solution is that it allows the missile to comply with the aforementioned requirements only by applying aerodynamic control. The proposed design is compared against more traditional guidance and control approaches with positive results, achieving reduced control efforts and lower miss distances with the integrated logic even in the presence of noises. In this Thesis it will be demonstrated how the dual control missile, where canard and tail fins are both movable, can enhance the capabilities of an existing missile airframe. Compared to a tail missile, dual control only requires two additional servos to actuate the canards in pitch and yaw. The tail section will be responsible to maintain the missile stabilized in roll, like in a classic tail missile. The additional complexity is that the vortices shed from the canard propagate downstream where they interact with the tail surfaces, altering the tail expected control characteristics. These aerodynamic phenomena must be properly described, as a preliminary step, with high enough precision for advanced guidance and control studies. As a first contribution we have developed a full analytical model of the nonlinear aerodynamics of a missile with dual control, including the characterization of this cross-control coupling effect. This development has been produced from a theoretical model validated with reliable practical data obtained from wind tunnel experiments available in the scientific literature, complement with computer fluid dynamics and semi-experimental methods. There are two modes of operating a missile with forward and rear controls, ”divert” and ”opposite” modes. In divert mode, controls are deflected in the same direction, generating an increment in direct lift and missile translation. Response is fast, but in this mode, dual control missiles may have difficulties in achieving large angles of attack and high level of lateral accelerations. When controls are deflected in opposite directions (opposite mode) the missile airframe rotates and the body angle of attack is increased to generate greater accelerations in steady-state, although the response time is larger. With the aero-model, a state dependent parametrization of the dual control missile short term dynamics can be obtained. Due to the cross-coupling effect, the open loop dynamics for the dual control missile is not linearly dependent of the fin positions. The short term missile dynamics are blended with the servo system to obtain an extended autopilot model, where the response is linear with the control fins turning rates, that will be the control variables. The flight control loop is optimized to achieve the maneuver required by the guidance law without exceeding any of the missile aerodynamic or mechanical limitations. The specific aero-limitations and relevant performance indicators for the dual control are set as part of the analysis. A second contribution of this Thesis is the development of a step-tracking multi-input autopilot that integrates non-linear aerodynamics. The designed dual control missile autopilot is a full three dimensional autopilot, where roll, pitch and yaw are integrated, calculating command inputs simultaneously. The autopilot control gains are state dependent, and calculated at each integration step solving a matrix Riccati equation of order 21x21. The resulting gains are sub-optimal as a full solution for the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation cannot be resolved in practical terms and some simplifications are taken. Acceleration mechanisms with an λ-shift is incorporated in the design. As part of the autopilot, a strategy is defined for proper allocation of control effort between canard and tail channels. This is achieved with an augmented feed forward controller that minimizes the total control effort of the missile to maneuver. The feedforward law also maintains the missile near trim conditions, obtaining a well manner response of the missile. The nonlinear controller proves to eliminate the non-minimum phase effect of the tail. Two guidance and control designs have been considered in this Thesis: the Two- Loop and the Integrated approaches. In the Two-Loop approach, the autopilot is placed in an inner loop and designed separately from an outer guidance loop. This structure assumes that spectral separation holds, meaning that the autopilot response times are much higher than the guidance command updates. The developed nonlinear autopilot is linked in the study to an optimal guidance law. Simulations are carried on launching close to collision course against supersonic and highly maneuver targets. Results demonstrate a large boost in performance provided by the dual control versus more traditional canard and tail missiles, where interception with the dual control close to collision course is achieved form 365deg all around the target. It is shown that for the dual control missile the optimal flight strategy results in using opposite control in its approach to target and quick corrections with divert just before impact. However the Two-Loop logic fails to achieve target interception when there are large deviations initially from collision course. One of the reasons is that part of the guidance command is not followed, because the missile is not able to control its axial acceleration without a throttleable engine. Also the separation hypothesis may not be applicable for a high dynamic vehicle like a dual control missile approaching a maneuvering target. If the guidance and autopilot are combined into a single loop, the guidance law will have information of the missile states and could calculate the most optimal approach to the target considering the actual capabilities and attitude of the missile. A third contribution of this Thesis is the resolution of the mentioned second design, the non-linear integrated guidance and autopilot (IGA) problem for the dual control missile. Previous approaches in the literature have posed the problem in body axes, resulting in high unstable behavior due to the low damping of the missile, and have also caused the missile to slide around the target and not actually hitting it. The IGA system is posed here in inertial axes and quaternion dynamics, eliminating these inconveniences. It is not restricted to the missile short term dynamic, and we have explicitly included the missile speed as a state variable. The IGA formulation is also independent of the target maneuver model that is explicitly included in the Two-loop optimal guidance law model. A typical problem of the integrated systems with a proportional control law is the problem of scales. The guidance errors are larger than missile state errors during most of the flight and result in high gains, control saturation and loss of control. It has been addressed here with an integrated feedforward controller that defines a local equilibrium state at each flight point and the controller acts as a regulator to minimize the IGA states excursions versus the defined feedforward state. The performance criteria for the IGA are the same as in the Two-Loop case. However the resulting optimization problem is mathematically very complex. The optimal problem in a finite-time horizon results in an irresoluble state dependent differential Riccati equation with terminal conditions. With a change of variable and the introduction of a transition matrix, the equation is transformed into a time differential Lyapunov equation that can be solved with known numerical methods in real time. This solution results range limited, and applicable when the missile is in a close neighborhood of the target. For larger ranges, an approximate solution is used, obtained from solution of an algebraic matrix Riccati equation at each integration step. The results obtained show, by mean of several comparative numerical tests in diverse homing scenarios, than the integrated approach is a better solution that the Two- Loop scheme. Trajectories obtained are very different in the two cases. The IGA fully preserves the guidance command and it is able to maximize the utilization of the missile propulsion system, achieving interception with lower miss distances and in lower flight times. The IGA can achieve interception against off-boresight targets where the Two- Loop was not able to success. As an additional advantage, the IGA also requires one order of magnitude less calculations than the Two-Loop solution. The effects of radar noises, discrete radar data and radome errors are investigated. IGA solution is robust, and less affected by radar than the Two-Loop, especially because the target maneuvers are not part of the IGA core optimization loop. Estimation of target acceleration is always imprecise and noisy and degrade the performance of the two-Loop solution. The IGA trajectories are such that minimize the impact of radome errors in the guidance loop. Finally, as a fourth contribution, it is demonstrated that the missile with IGA guidance is capable of performing a defense against attacks from its rear hemisphere, as a tail attack, only with aerodynamic control. The studied trajectories have a preprogrammed high rate turn maneuver, maintaining the missile within its controllable envelope. This solution does not recur to more complex features in service today, like vector control of the missile thrust or side thrusters. In all the mathematical treatments and demonstrations, the Kronecker product has been introduced as a practical tool to handle the state dependent parametrizations that have resulted in very high order matrix equations.