Unit Root Analysis of Traffic Time Series in Toll Highways

Concession contracts in highways often include some kind of clauses (for example, a minimum traffic guarantee) that allow for better management of the business risks. The value of these clauses may be important and should be added to the total value of the concession. However, in these cases, traditional valuation techniques, like the NPV (net present value) of the project, are insufficient. An alternative methodology for the valuation of highway concession is one based on the real options approach. This methodology is generally built on the assumption of the evolution of traffic volume as a GBM (geometric Brownian motion), which is the hypothesis analyzed in this paper. First, a description of the methodology used for the analysis of the existence of unit roots (i.e., the hypothesis of non-stationarity) is provided. The Dickey-Fuller approach has been used, which is the most common test for this kind of analysis. Then this methodology is applied to perform a statistical analysis of traffic series in Spanish toll highways. For this purpose, data on the AADT (annual average daily traffic) on a set of highways have been used. The period of analysis is around thirty years in most cases. The main outcome of the research is that the hypothesis that traffic volume follows a GBM process in Spanish toll highways cannot be rejected. This result is robust, and therefore it can be used as a starting point for the application of the real options theory to assess toll highway concessions.

Análisis del comportamiento en servicio de los puentes de fábrica ante las nuevas condiciones de explotación

Los puentes arco de fábrica representan una parte importante del inventario de puentes en España y en Europa. De aquí, la importancia cuantitativa de estas estructuras y el interés que representa tanto para las Administraciones, organismos públicos y privados como para la sociedad en general, mantener estos puentes en servicio. Para poder alargar su vida útil, aún más si cabe, se plantea imprescindible llevar a cabo una labor de conservación y mantenimiento adecuada. La importancia de la evaluación estructural de los puentes de fábrica se basa en la conveniencia de conocer el comportamiento estructural tanto en condiciones de servicio como en agotamiento. El comportamiento en Estado Límite Último ha sido estudiado en profundidad y como resultado, la seguridad frente a agotamiento ha quedado definida con cierta confianza. Sin embargo, el comportamiento en Estado Límite de Servicio no es tan conocido. Se considera necesaria una revisión del concepto de ELS en puentes arco de fábrica puesto que muchos de ellos, cumpliendo las comprobaciones establecidas para ELU, presentan daños asociados a las actuales condiciones de explotación existentes actuales. El presente trabajo se enmarca dentro de un proyecto que está llevando a cabo la UIC (Union Internationale de Chemins de Fer) desde 2004. El objetivo general del mismo es conocer el comportamiento de los puentes arco de fábrica y mejorar los métodos de evaluación, mantenimiento y reparación existentes. Con este estudio, se pretende contribuir a mejorar la caracterización del comportamiento en servicio de estas estructuras. Para ello se ha realizado un análisis del estado tensional de la bóveda y el relleno estudiando la influencia de la configuración geométrica de los puentes y las propiedades de los materiales que los componen. Entender el funcionamiento de estas estructuras y conocer sus peculiares características ha sido el paso previo al desarrollo del estudio. Para ello, se ha acudido al minucioso trabajo desarrollado por diversos autores, desde los primeros análisis mediante la línea de presiones hasta los actuales métodos basados en elementos finitos. En primer lugar, se ha realizado un estudio paramétrico de diferentes configuraciones geométricas. El objetivo es comprobar la influencia de las dimensiones absolutas y las relaciones existentes entre las mismas en el comportamiento en servicio de los puentes. A continuación, se ha estudiado la influencia de las propiedades mecánicas de los rellenos rígido y granular (modificando su módulo de deformabilidad) en el estado tensional de la bóveda y el propio relleno. Para las dos etapas anteriores se emplea un modelo simplificado de puente arco de fábrica. A continuación, se crea un modelo más completo del mismo, para estudiar la influencia de las propiedades mecánicas del substrato de cimentación en el comportamiento estructural en servicio de la estructura. El objetivo final de este trabajo fin de máster, es conocer el comportamiento en servicio de los puentes arco de fábrica, para poder establecer las variables que condicionan el mismo. El siguiente paso en este campo de estudio, consiste en fijar unos valores límite para las mismas. Como síntesis de las conclusiones obtenidas, se menciona que el comportamiento estructural de los puente arco de fábrica, en mayor o menor medida, está influenciado por su geometría y las propiedades de los rellenos y substrato de cimentación que forman parte del mismo. Masonry arch bridges represent an important part of the total bridges, both in Spain and Europe. For this reason, these structures are so important in terms of quantity. They play an essential role for public administration and people in general. In order to remain those bridges serviceable, suitable inspections and repairs are required. It is necessary to have knowledge of the bridge condition so that an assessment can be made with confidence. It is therefore necessary to check that bridges behave properly under Ultimate Limit State criterion and Serviceability Limit State criterion. ULS has been studied thoroughly and as result, requirements under collapse are well described. However, structural behaviour under conditions of serviceability is not well evaluated. Serviceability Limit State criterion should be redefined for masonry arch bridges assessment. This is because many bridges that fulfil SLS criterion have damages. The purpose of this work is to take part in the improvement of assessment under serviceability. A vault and fill structural behaviour analysis has been performed from two points of view: geometry of the bridge and materials’ properties. The starting point was learning about masonry arch bridges behaviour and their special features. For this task, a revision of several authors’ thorough study has been made, from the line of thrust analysis to the current finite element analysis. Firstly, a parametric study of typologies of bridge has been made. The aim is to know how vault and fill behaviour changes modifying both absolute dimensions and relation between them. In the next step, a study of both surface fill and backfill properties has been done. The aim is to know how vault and fill behaviour changes modifying Young’s modulus. The principal conclusion achieved along this work is that the structural behaviour of masonry bridges depends of the bridge geometry and its material properties.

Coupled models for the dynamics of bridges under high-speed rail traffic

The dynamic effects of high-speed trains on viaducts are important issues for the design of the structures, as well as for determining safe running conditions of trains. In this work we start by reviewing the relevance of some basic moving load models for the dynamic action of vertical traffic loads. The study of lateral dynamics of running trains on bridges is of importance mainly for the safety of the traffic, and may be relevant for laterally compliant bridges. These studies require 3D coupled vehicle-bridge models and consideration of wheel to rail contact. We describe here a fully nonlinear coupled model, formulated in absolute coordinates and incorporated into a commercial finite element framework. An application example is presented for a vehicle subject to a strong wind gust traversing a bridge, showing the relevance of the nonlinear wheel-rail contact model as well as the interaction between bridge and vehicle.

Application of the Boundary Element Method to the Analysis of Bridge Abutments

The B.E. technique is applied to an interesting dynamic problem: the interaction between bridges and their abutments. Several two-dimensional cases have been tested in relation with previously published analytical results. A three-dimensional case is also shown and different considerations in relation with the accuracy of the method are described.

Parque eólico offshore en Mataró(Barcelona)

Este proyecto tiene como objeto la descripción de las obras e instalaciones necesarias para llevar a cabo la construcción de un Parque Eólico Marino, y conseguir así las metas propuestas por los planes energéticos comunitarios, nacionales y autonómicos en cuanto a la producción de energía eléctrica a partir de fuentes renovables. Además, trata de servir de soporte técnico para la obtención de la autorización administrativa y la aprobación del proyecto de construcción y la puesta en marcha del Parque Eólico Marino en el marco legislativo.

Cohesive-frictional modelling of bond and splitting action of prestressing wire

This work shows a numerical procedure for bond between indented wires and concrete, and the coupled splitting of the concrete. The bond model is an interface, non-associative, plasticity model. It is coupled with a cohesive fracture model for concrete to take into account the splitting of such concrete. The radial component of the prestressing force, increased by Poisson’s effect, may split the surrounding concrete, decreasing the wire confinement and diminishing the bonding. The combined action of the bond and the splitting is studied with the proposed model. The results of the numerical model are compared with the results of a series of tests, such as those which showed splitting induced by the bond between wire and concrete. Tests with different steel indentation depths were performed. The numerical procedure accurately reproduces the experimental records and improves knowledge of this complex process.

An analytical model for simulating the bond of prestressed concrete during the prestressed force release

A bond analytical model is proposed in this paper. The model is capable of reproducing the bond stress developed between the steel and concrete, in precast prestressed elements, during the entire process of prestressing force release. The bond stress developed in the transmission zone, where the bond stress is not constant, is also obtained. The steel and concrete stresses as well as the slip between both materials can be also estimated by means of the relation established in the model between these parameters and the bond stress. The model is validated with the results of a series of tests, considering different steel indentation depths and concrete covers and it is extended to evaluate the transmission length. This has been checked by comparing the transmission length predicted by the model and one measured experimentally in two series of tests.

La visita a campo como metodología para el proceso de enseñanza-aprendizaje

Dentro de la enseñanza de la geotecnia los viajes a campo son una herramienta útil para superar las limitaciones asociadas a la enseñanza en el aula así como para promover el autoaprendizaje del alumno, el cual se enfrenta en primera persona a la información en estado bruto. Mediante esta comunicación compartimos la experiencia de la visita a las obras de construcción de los Túneles de Sorbas y El Almendral dentro del Máster de "Geología Aplicada a la Obra Civil y los Recursos Hídricos" ofertado por la Universidad de Granada, comentando, con un enfoque docente, la planificación de la actividad en función de los resultados de aprendizaje deseados. Fieldtrips are a good tool to overcome the inherent difficulties associated to teaching engineering geology at the classroom and to encourage student self-learning, when they face raw data. In this paper, we share our recent experience with the organization of a fieldtrip to two tunneling construction site (Sorbas Tunnel and El Almendral Tunnel) for the MSc program of “Applied Geology in Civil Engineering and Water Resources” offered by the University of Granada, discussing, with a educational point of view, the planning and learning outcomes.

A robust numerical framework to the analysis of material failure of fibre reinforced soft tissue

In this work, robustness and stability of continuum damage models applied to material failure in soft tissues are addressed. In the implicit damage models equipped with softening, the presence of negative eigenvalues in the tangent elemental matrix degrades the condition number of the global matrix, leading to a reduction of the computational performance of the numerical model. Two strategies have been adapted from literature to improve the aforementioned computational performance degradation: the IMPL-EX integration scheme [Oliver,2006], which renders the elemental matrix contribution definite positive, and arclength-type continuation methods [Carrera,1994], which allow to capture the unstable softening branch in brittle ruptures. The IMPL-EX integration scheme has as a major drawback the need to use small time steps to keep numerical error below an acceptable value. A convergence study, limiting the maximum allowed increment of internal variables in the damage model, is presented. Finally, numerical simulation of failure problems with fibre reinforced materials illustrates the performance of the adopted methodology.

Proyecto de intercambiador de transportes en la Plaza de Conde de Casal (Madrid)

La presente memoria forma parte del estudio previo de soluciones para el nuevo proyecto de intercambiador en la plaza de Conde de Casal en Madrid. Este documento tiene como objeto recopilar la esencia del proceso seguido a lo largo de todo el estudio y presentar el resultado del mismo. El proceso se inicia con la recopilación de diferentes datos: datos de antecedentes de la actuación, datos previos concernientes al proyecto, datos sobre las necesidades existentes y datos geológicos sobre el terreno. A continuación se procede al tratamiento y evaluación de dichos datos para en base a ellos proyectar posibles soluciones alternativas, de las que se desarrollan tres en profundidad. Estas tres soluciones son sometidas a una evaluación ambiental y a un estudio comparativo que las enfrenta a través de una serie de conceptos y subconceptos escogidos por su relevancia concreta en la actuación o su capacidad diferencial entre alternativas. Finalmente se presenta la solución adoptada tras la ejecución del proceso, que se estudiará mas en profundidad en el proyecto de construcción.

Modelos de viajes a hospitales públicos españoles comparados con los modelos americanos

La implantación de un nuevo Polo Generador de Viajes (PGV) incrementa el tráfico de la zona y cambia el uso del suelo en las áreas cercanas a las cuales está ubicado. Por este motivo resulta conveniente la elaboración de modelos matemáticos para estimar los viajes generados y poder prevenir los impactos negativos. Este trabajo tiene como objetivo principal la elaboración y aplicación de modelos de viajes a través de datos de cuatro hospitales seleccionados de Madrid y compáralos a los resultados de los modelos del Institute of Transportation Engenieers (ITE) y con los flujos reales. Una vez realizados los análisis y la metodología comparativa, se han verificado que los resultados de los modelos ITE que han sido discordantes con los resultados de los flujos reales de Madrid.

Laser Shock Processing influence on local properties and overall tensile behavior of friction stir welded joints

Based on laser beam intensities above 109 W/cm2 with pulse energy of several Joules and duration of nanoseconds, Laser Shock Processing (LSP) is capable of inducing a surface compressive residual stress field. The paper presents experimental results showing the ability of LSP to improve the mechanical strength and cracking resistance of AA2024-T351 friction stir welded (FSW) joints. After introducing the FSW and LSP procedures, the results of microstructural analysis and micro-hardness are discussed. Video Image Correlation was used to measure the displacement and strain fields produced during tensile testing of flat specimens; the local and overall tensile behavior of native FSW joints vs. LSP treated were analyzed. Further, results of slow strain rate tensile testing of the FSW joints, native and LSP treated, performed in 3.5% NaCl solution are presented. The ability of LSP to improve the structural behavior of the FSW joints is underscored.

The evolution of the laws of software evolution. A discussion based on a systematic literature review

After more than 40 years of life, software evolution should be considered as a mature field. However, despite such a long history, many research questions still remain open, and controversial studies about the validity of the laws of software evolution are common. During the first part of these 40 years the laws themselves evolved to adapt to changes in both the research and the software industry environments. This process of adaption to new paradigms, standards, and practices stopped about 15 years ago, when the laws were revised for the last time. However, most controversial studies have been raised during this latter period. Based on a systematic and comprehensive literature review, in this paper we describe how and when the laws, and the software evolution field, evolved. We also address the current state of affairs about the validity of the laws, how they are perceived by the research community, and the developments and challenges that are likely to occur in the coming years.

Simulation of Temperatures and Stresses during Construction of a RCC Dam

Se describen las variaciones de temperaturas y de tensiones durante la construcción de presas de hormigón compactado. The curing of concrete is an exothermic process. The heat of hydration generated induces temperature increases in the concrete, which will disappear in the long term by heat conduction in the concrete mass and thermal exchanges with the environment. The problem is of particularly interest for large concrete masses, as is the case of dams, because the time involved in the heat diffusion process grows with the square of the dimensions and a hotter dam interior implies the possibility of cracking the exposed surfaces of the dam. The Cuira dam, currently being built in Venezuela using roller compacted concrete, is a 134 m high, arch-gravity dam. In support of the design, different strategies were analysed, including various combinations of cooling of the water and the aggregate in order to achieve acceptable results. The calculations were conducted with Abaqus, taking into account all the necessary mechanical and thermal characteristics, as well as the relevant non-linearities. The analyses led to the conclusion that no cooling was required, even taking into account the stress state imposed by an early and rapid filling of the reservoir.

Calibración de Modelos Constitutivos de Hormigón

En este artículo se describen diversos modelos constitutivos del comportamiento dilatante del hormigón. Se describe una metodología para caracterizar el comportamiento mecánico del hormigón. En particular se calibra el modelo de plasticidad y daño para hormigón de Abaqus/Standard y Abaqus/Explicit a partir de ensayos uniaxiales y tria xiales en probetas cilíndricas. El modelo se enriquece con una subrutina de usuario para capturar mejor la ductilidad del material sometido a moderadas presiones de confinamiento. Además se define una variable de estado para controlar la eliminación de elementos. Finalmente se muestran algunos ejemplos de aplicación de impactos de proyectiles deformables y rígidos sobre muros de hormigón armado, incluyendo técnicas especiales como la conversión de elementos sólidos a partículas (SPH).