La arquitectura residencial en El Real Sitio de El Pardo (1885 - 1965): Orígenes, tipos y configuración del trazado urbano

Tras la denominación de Real Sitio a mediados del siglo XVIII, bajo el reinado de Fernando VI, su sucesor Carlos III procedió a la incorporación a su Patrimonio de todos los Montes y Bosques de El Pardo. Comenzó entonces el proceso de planeamiento urbano y de construcción arquitectónica que finalizó en torno al año 1800. En lo sucesivo, no sólo se mantiene el curso de la conservación y consolidación de los edificios principales, sino que se realiza obra nueva de índole civil. Algunos edificios cambiaron de propiedad y de uso hasta que tras la Guerra Civil se procedió a la mayor transformación vivida por el Real Sitio. El intervalo que aquí se trata (1885 a 1965), no ha suscitado, en los estudios sobre El Pardo, atención suficiente al no acontecer obra nueva de carácter patrimonial ni ha sido objeto de análisis el trazado y la fisonomía del centro urbano residencial del pueblo que Carlos III configuró. Sin embargo se estima relevante analizar los cambios en la actividad residencial; en primer lugar porque coexiste con la arquitectura oficial y, por tanto, se entiende necesario un análisis global del conjunto y en segundo lugar porque facilita la comprensión sobre la imagen original de carácter histórico del conjunto de finales del siglo XVIII. Este marco temporal determina tres partes principales de estudio que estructuran la presente tesis, cuyas fechas establecen los intervalos históricos clave: Actuaciones sobre el núcleo urbano consolidado (1885-1931). Cese de la actividad constructiva (1931-1939). Propuestas regeneradoras y crecimiento acelerado (1939-1965). Dentro de ellos se establecen, a su vez, dos subcapítulos diferenciados con la finalidad de explicar los sucesos que pautaron los cambios trascendentales en la historia de El Pardo. En el estudio del estado de la cuestión se observa que en El Pardo, al igual que sucede en otros Reales Sitios, se investigan los edificios destacados como el Palacio, la Casita del Príncipe, la Casa de Oficios y la Casa de Infantes desde el punto de vista de su historia pero no desde la arquitectura ni de cómo esta afecta al desarrollo del trazado y por tanto al contexto urbano. Se manifiestan determinadas carencias de tratamiento gráfico que facilitarían la comprensión histórica mediante el análisis de la forma y cómo esta ha ido variando sustancialmente. El concepto de escala y orientación reordena el estudio, no sólo de estos edificios protagonistas sino de los que se entretejen a su alrededor y componen el conjunto histórico, lo cual aporta nuevas conclusiones al estado de la cuestión que aquí compete. El principal objetivo de la tesis es, por tanto, contribuir a la dimensión patrimonial mediante el estudio de la arquitectura residencial del pueblo de El Pardo y en cómo esta ha ido conformando y consolidando el entramado urbano original en torno a edificios de la realeza y corte. Analizar aquellos edificios que perduran, los que fueron reconstruidos, rehabilitados, y apuntar acontecimientos históricos que formularon la actual fisonomía. Sistematizar y reordenar sobre la traza actual los edificios que desaparecieron, nos da las pistas sobre las modificaciones en concepto de escala arquitectónica y urbana. El estudio de las fuentes y establecer una metodología de conexión de estas, ayuda a detectar dónde no se han dirigido aún los focos de interés así como las lagunas que han quedado por explorar con el fin de responder a nuevas hipótesis, conceder conclusiones y abrir otras líneas de investigación. Como conclusiones generales, la tesis aporta documentación nueva sobre el objeto de estudio, no solicitada, digitalizada o publicada con anterioridad. En ella se analizan los procesos de configuración, consolidación y transformación en el Real Sitio mediante la sistematización de estados comparativos. Con respecto al estudio de los diferentes contextos natural y urbano la tesis analiza cómo los accidentes naturales, el desarrollo de infraestructuras y el impulso de la agronomía afectaron a El Pardo a partir del siglo XIX, y estudia los procesos de configuración, consolidación y transformación en el Real Sitio mediante la sistematización de la documentación encontrada de manera gráfica y escrita. En relación al marco patrimonial arquitectónico, la tesis analiza los procesos edificatorios históricos. Se estudian, a su vez, cambios de ocupación o uso que derivaron en reformas, ampliaciones, obras de nueva planta e incluso en derribos, así como los proyectos no materializados o que se llevaron a cabo de manera parcial. Con respecto al análisis del momento histórico, la tesis analiza las posibles afectaciones, políticas, sociales y económicas en las etapas de Monarquía, Segunda República, Guerra Civil y Posguerra. Por último, la tesis abre cuatro vías de investigación (que ya se han tratado y avanzado en parte pero que escapan a los límites de este trabajo) que pueden plantear nuevas hipótesis, reportando así respuestas sobre objetos de estudio complementarios y paralelos al presente. Estas refieren a análisis más concretos sobre El Palacio Real de El Pardo y la Casa de Oficios, el Camino Real de Madrid a El Pardo desde la Puerta de Hierro, los cuarteles, puertas y portilleras del Monte de El Pardo y los proyectos desarrollados por el arquitecto Diego Méndez en los Reales Sitios para el Patrimonio Nacional. ABSTRACT Following the Royal Site denomination being granted in the mid-18th Century, during the reign of Ferdinand VI, his successor Charles III proceeded to include all the Forests and Woodlands of El Pardo in his heritage. That then gave rise to the process of town planning and architectural construction that was completed around 1800. Thereafter, not only the process of conservation and consolidation of the main buildings has been maintained, but new civil engineering works have also been carried out. Some buildings changed ownership and use until, after the Civil War, the greatest transformation experienced by the Royal Site was undertaken. The time frame this paper concerns (1885 to 1965), has not attracted sufficient attention in studies of El Pardo due to there having been no new works with heritage status, nor has there been an analysis of the layout and external appearance of the residential centre in the town once conceived by Charles III. However, it is considered relevant to analyse the changes in residential activity, firstly, because it coexists with the official architecture and, thus, it is considered necessary to perform a global analysis of the complex and, secondly, because it facilitates a historical understanding of the original appearance of the complex at the end of the 18th Century. This time framework defines three main parts of the study that provide the structure of this thesis, the dates of which establish the key historical time frames: Actions in the consolidated town centre (1885-1931). Cessation of construction works (1931-1939). Proposals of regeneration and accelerated growth (1939-1965). Two distinct sub-chapters are also established within these, in order to explain the events that marked the transcendental changes in the history of El Pardo. When studying the subject matter, it is noted that in El Pardo, as is the case in other Royal Sites, outstanding buildings such as the Palace, the Prince's Cottage, the Trades House and the Infantes House are usually researched strictly from the point of view of their history, but not from an architectural perspective, nor analysing how that affects the development of the site layout and thus the urban area. Specific shortcomings are evident in the graphic treatment that would have otherwise facilitated a historical understanding through the analysis of the shape and the way it has gradually undergone substantial variation. The concept of scale and orientation reorganises the study, not only of these key buildings, but also of those that are woven around them and make up the historic complex, allowing entirely new conclusions concerning the subject matter analysed herein. Therefore, the main purpose of this thesis is to outline our heritage through the study of the residential architecture of the town of El Pardo and the analysis of the way the original town has been built up and consolidated around the buildings erected by royalty and the court; to analyse the buildings that still remain, those that were rebuilt, refurbished, and to note historic events that shaped its current appearance. To this end, a systematic classification and reorganisation on the current urban layout of the buildings that have disappeared will give us the key to understand changes in the concept of architectural and urban scale. Studying the sources and establishing a methodology to connect them will help us detect those areas where the focus of interest has not concentrated yet, and will also reveal the gaps that remain unexplored, in order to respond to new hypotheses, reach new conclusions and open up new lines of research. As general conclusions, this thesis provides new documentation on the subject matter that had not been requested, digitized or published before. There we find an analysis of the processes of configuration, consolidation and transformation of the Royal Site through a systematic classification of comparative states. With regard to the study of the multiple natural and urban environments, this thesis analyses the way natural features, development of infrastructures and agricultural driving forces affected El Pardo as of the 19th Century, and it studies the processes of configuration, consolidation and transformation of the Royal Site by systematically classifying the documentation found in graphic and written documents. In relation to the architectural heritage framework, this thesis analyses historical building processes. Likewise, a study is also performed on the changes in land occupation or use that led to reforms, extensions, new buildings and even to demolitions, as well as on unrealized projects, or even on those that were partially implemented. As for the analysis of the historical time period, this thesis assesses the potential political, social and economic effects of the Monarchy, Second Republic, Civil War and Post-War Periods. Finally, this thesis opens up four lines of investigation (that have already been discussed and partially advanced, but which fall beyond the scope of this work) that could pose new hypotheses, thus giving answer to other subject matters parallel and complementary to the one assessed herein. These refer to more specific analyses of El Palacio Real de El Pardo (Royal Palace of El Pardo) and the Casa de Oficios (Trades House), the Royal Highway from Madrid to El Pardo from Puerta de Hierro, the barracks, gates and entrances to estates in the Woodlands of El Pardo and the projects developed on the Royal Sites by the architect Diego Méndez for the National Heritage.

On real-time partitioned multicore systems

Partitioning is a common approach to developing mixed-criticality systems, where partitions are isolated from each other both in the temporal and the spatial domain in order to prevent low-criticality subsystems from compromising other subsystems with high level of criticality in case of misbehaviour. The advent of many-core processors, on the other hand, opens the way to highly parallel systems in which all partitions can be allocated to dedicated processor cores. This trend will simplify processor scheduling, although other issues such as mutual interference in the temporal domain may arise as a consequence of memory and device sharing. The paper describes an architecture for multi-core partitioned systems including critical subsystems built with the Ada Ravenscar profile. Some implementation issues are discussed, and experience on implementing the ORK kernel on the XtratuM partitioning hypervisor is presented.

Quality of bus services performance: benefits of real time passenger information systems

One of the main problems in urban areas is the steady growth in car ownership and traffic levels. Therefore, the challenge of sustainability is focused on a shift of the demand for mobility from cars to collective means of transport. For this purpose, buses are a key element of the public transport systems. In this respect Real Time Passenger Information (RTPI) systems help people change their travel behaviour towards more sustainable transport modes. This paper provides an assessment methodology which evaluates how RTPI systems improve the quality of bus services performance in two European cities, Madrid and Bremerhaven. In the case of Madrid, bus punctuality has increased by 3%. Regarding the travellers perception, Madrid raised its quality of service by 6% while Bremerhaven increased by 13%. On the other hand, the users¿ perception of Public Transport (PT) image increased by 14%.

Analysis of the discharge capacity of radial-gated spillways using CFD and ANN - Oliana Dam case study.

The paper focuses on the analysis of radial-gated spillways, which is carried out by the solution of a numerical model based on the finite element method (FEM). The Oliana Dam is considered as a case study and the discharge capacity is predicted both by the application of a level-set-based free-surface solver and by the use of traditional empirical formulations. The results of the analysis are then used for training an artificial neural network to allow real-time predictions of the discharge in any situation of energy head and gate opening within the operation range of the reservoir. The comparison of the results obtained with the different methods shows that numerical models such as the FEM can be useful as a predictive tool for the analysis of the hydraulic performance of radial-gated spillways.

1RM prediction: a data mining case study

In the last few years there has been a heightened interest in data treatment and analysis with the aim of discovering hidden knowledge and eliciting relationships and patterns within this data. Data mining techniques (also known as Knowledge Discovery in Databases) have been applied over a wide range of fields such as marketing, investment, fraud detection, manufacturing, telecommunications and health. In this study, well-known data mining techniques such as artificial neural networks (ANN), genetic programming (GP), forward selection linear regression (LR) and k-means clustering techniques, are proposed to the health and sports community in order to aid with resistance training prescription. Appropriate resistance training prescription is effective for developing fitness, health and for enhancing general quality of life. Resistance exercise intensity is commonly prescribed as a percent of the one repetition maximum. 1RM, dynamic muscular strength, one repetition maximum or one execution maximum, is operationally defined as the heaviest load that can be moved over a specific range of motion, one time and with correct performance. The safety of the 1RM assessment has been questioned as such an enormous effort may lead to muscular injury. Prediction equations could help to tackle the problem of predicting the 1RM from submaximal loads, in order to avoid or at least, reduce the associated risks. We built different models from data on 30 men who performed up to 5 sets to exhaustion at different percentages of the 1RM in the bench press action, until reaching their actual 1RM. Also, a comparison of different existing prediction equations is carried out. The LR model seems to outperform the ANN and GP models for the 1RM prediction in the range between 1 and 10 repetitions. At 75% of the 1RM some subjects (n = 5) could perform 13 repetitions with proper technique in the bench press action, whilst other subjects (n = 20) performed statistically significant (p < 0:05) more repetitions at 70% than at 75% of their actual 1RM in the bench press action. Rate of perceived exertion (RPE) seems not to be a good predictor for 1RM when all the sets are performed until exhaustion, as no significant differences (p < 0:05) were found in the RPE at 75%, 80% and 90% of the 1RM. Also, years of experience and weekly hours of strength training are better correlated to 1RM (p < 0:05) than body weight. O'Connor et al. 1RM prediction equation seems to arise from the data gathered and seems to be the most accurate 1RM prediction equation from those proposed in literature and used in this study. Epley's 1RM prediction equation is reproduced by means of data simulation from 1RM literature equations. Finally, future lines of research are proposed related to the problem of the 1RM prediction by means of genetic algorithms, neural networks and clustering techniques. RESUMEN En los últimos años ha habido un creciente interés en el tratamiento y análisis de datos con el propósito de descubrir relaciones, patrones y conocimiento oculto en los mismos. Las técnicas de data mining (también llamadas de \Descubrimiento de conocimiento en bases de datos\) se han aplicado consistentemente a lo gran de un gran espectro de áreas como el marketing, inversiones, detección de fraude, producción industrial, telecomunicaciones y salud. En este estudio, técnicas bien conocidas de data mining como las redes neuronales artificiales (ANN), programación genética (GP), regresión lineal con selección hacia adelante (LR) y la técnica de clustering k-means, se proponen a la comunidad del deporte y la salud con el objetivo de ayudar con la prescripción del entrenamiento de fuerza. Una apropiada prescripción de entrenamiento de fuerza es efectiva no solo para mejorar el estado de forma general, sino para mejorar la salud e incrementar la calidad de vida. La intensidad en un ejercicio de fuerza se prescribe generalmente como un porcentaje de la repetición máxima. 1RM, fuerza muscular dinámica, una repetición máxima o una ejecución máxima, se define operacionalmente como la carga máxima que puede ser movida en un rango de movimiento específico, una vez y con una técnica correcta. La seguridad de las pruebas de 1RM ha sido cuestionada debido a que el gran esfuerzo requerido para llevarlas a cabo puede derivar en serias lesiones musculares. Las ecuaciones predictivas pueden ayudar a atajar el problema de la predicción de la 1RM con cargas sub-máximas y son empleadas con el propósito de eliminar o al menos, reducir los riesgos asociados. En este estudio, se construyeron distintos modelos a partir de los datos recogidos de 30 hombres que realizaron hasta 5 series al fallo en el ejercicio press de banca a distintos porcentajes de la 1RM, hasta llegar a su 1RM real. También se muestra una comparación de algunas de las distintas ecuaciones de predicción propuestas con anterioridad. El modelo LR parece superar a los modelos ANN y GP para la predicción de la 1RM entre 1 y 10 repeticiones. Al 75% de la 1RM algunos sujetos (n = 5) pudieron realizar 13 repeticiones con una técnica apropiada en el ejercicio press de banca, mientras que otros (n = 20) realizaron significativamente (p < 0:05) más repeticiones al 70% que al 75% de su 1RM en el press de banca. El ínndice de esfuerzo percibido (RPE) parece no ser un buen predictor del 1RM cuando todas las series se realizan al fallo, puesto que no existen diferencias signifiativas (p < 0:05) en el RPE al 75%, 80% y el 90% de la 1RM. Además, los años de experiencia y las horas semanales dedicadas al entrenamiento de fuerza están más correlacionadas con la 1RM (p < 0:05) que el peso corporal. La ecuación de O'Connor et al. parece surgir de los datos recogidos y parece ser la ecuación de predicción de 1RM más precisa de aquellas propuestas en la literatura y empleadas en este estudio. La ecuación de predicción de la 1RM de Epley es reproducida mediante simulación de datos a partir de algunas ecuaciones de predicción de la 1RM propuestas con anterioridad. Finalmente, se proponen futuras líneas de investigación relacionadas con el problema de la predicción de la 1RM mediante algoritmos genéticos, redes neuronales y técnicas de clustering.

A Propose-and-revise System for Real-time Traffic Management

The aim of this paper is to describe an intelligent system for the problem of real time road traffic control. The purpose of the system is to help traffic engineers in the selection of the state of traffic control devices on real time, using data recorded by traffic detectors on motorways. The system follows an advanced knowledge-based approach that implements an abstract generic problem solving method, called propose-and-revise, which was proposed in Artificial Intelligence, within the knowledge engineering field, as a standard cognitive structure oriented to solve configuration design problems. The paper presents the knowledge model of such a system together with the strategy of inference and describes how it was applied for the case of the M-40 urban ring for the city of Madrid.

Knowledge Modelling in Multiagent Systems: The Case of the Management of a National Network

This paper presents the knowledge model of a distributed decision support system, that has been designed for the management of a national network in Ukraine. It shows how advanced Artificial Intelligence techniques (multiagent systems and knowledge modelling) have been applied to solve this real-world decision support problem: on the one hand its distributed nature, implied by different loci of decision-making at the network nodes, suggested to apply a multiagent solution; on the other, due to the complexity of problem-solving for local network administration, it was useful to apply knowledge modelling techniques, in order to structure the different knowledge types and reasoning processes involved. The paper sets out from a description of our particular management problem. Subsequently, our agent model is described, pointing out the local problem-solving and coordination knowledge models. Finally, the dynamics of the approach is illustrated by an example.

A Semantic-Based Approach to Attain Reproducibility of Computational Environments in Scientic Work ows: A Case Study

Reproducible research in scientic work ows is often addressed by tracking the provenance of the produced results. While this approach allows inspecting intermediate and nal results, improves understanding, and permits replaying a work ow execution, it does not ensure that the computational environment is available for subsequent executions to reproduce the experiment. In this work, we propose describing the resources involved in the execution of an experiment using a set of semantic vocabularies, so as to conserve the computational environment. We dene a process for documenting the work ow application, management system, and their dependencies based on 4 domain ontologies. We then conduct an experimental evaluation sing a real work ow application on an academic and a public Cloud platform. Results show that our approach can reproduce an equivalent execution environment of a predened virtual machine image on both computing platforms.

Real-time bilateral control of a nonlinear teleoperation system

In this work, we study the bilateral control of a nonlinear teleoperator system with constant delay, proposes a control strategy by state convergence, which directly connect the local and remote manipulator through feedback signals of position and speed. The control signal allows the remote manipulator follow the local manipulator through the state convergence even if it has a delay in the communication channel. The bilateral control of the teleoperator system considers the case when the human operator applies a constant force on the local manipulator and when the interaction of the remote manipulator with the environment is considered passive. The stability analysis is performed using functional of Lyapunov-Krasovskii, it showed that using a control algorithm by state convergence for the case with constant delay, the nonlinear local and remote teleoperation system is asymptotically stable, also speeds converge to zero and position tracking is achieved.

Advanced data acquisition system implementation for the ITER Neutron Diagnostic use case using EPICS and FlexRIO technology on a PXIe platform

In the framework of the ITER Control Breakdown Structure (CBS), Plant System Instrumentation & Control (I&C) defines the hardware and software required to control one or more plant systems [1]. For diagnostics, most of the complex Plant System I&C are to be delivered by ITER Domestic Agencies (DAs). As an example for the DAs, ITER Organization (IO) has developed several use cases for diagnostics Plant System I&C that fully comply with guidelines presented in the Plant Control Design Handbook (PCDH) [2]. One such use case is for neutron diagnostics, specifically the Fission Chamber (FC), which is responsible for delivering time-resolved measurements of neutron source strength and fusion power to aid in assessing the functional performance of ITER [3]. ITER will deploy four Fission Chamber units, each consisting of three individual FC detectors. Two of these detectors contain Uranium 235 for Neutron detection, while a third "dummy" detector will provide gamma and noise detection. The neutron flux from each MFC is measured by the three methods: . Counting Mode: measures the number of individual pulses and their location in the record. Pulse parameters (threshold and width) are user configurable. . Campbelling Mode (Mean Square Voltage): measures the RMS deviation in signal amplitude from its average value. .Current Mode: integrates the signal amplitude over the measurement period

Methodology for estimating building integrated photovoltaics electricity production under shadowing conditions and case study

Building integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) systems are a relevant application of photovoltaics. In countries belonging to the International Energy Agency countries, 24% of total installed PV power corresponds to BIPV systems. Electricity losses caused by shadows over the PV generator have a significant impact on the performance of BIPV systems, being the major source of electricity losses. This paper presents a methodology to estimate electricity produced by BIPV systems which incorporates a model for shading losses. The proposed methodology has been validated on a one year study with real data from two similar PV systems placed on the south façade of a building belonging to the Technical University of Madrid. This study has covered all weather conditions: clear, partially overcast and fully overcast sky. Results of this study are shown at different time scales, resulting that the errors committed by the best performing model are below 1% and 3% in annual and daily electricity estimation. The use of models which account for the reduced performance at low irradiance levels also improves the estimation of generated electricity.

High-speed rail systems and tourists´ destination choice: the case studies of Paris and Madrid

The analysis of how tourists select their holiday destinations along with the factors determining their choices is very important for promoting tourism. In particular, transportation is supposed to have a great influence on the tourists’ decisions. The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of High Speed Rail (HSR) systems with respect to a destination choice. Two key tourist destinations in Europe namely Paris, and Madrid, have been chosen to identify the factors influencing this choice. On the basis of two surveys to obtain information from tourists, it has been found that the presence of architectural sites, the promotion quality of the destination itself, and the cultural and social events have an impact when making a destination choice. However the availability of the HSR systems affects the choice of Paris and Madrid as tourist destinations in a different way. For Paris, TGV is considered a real transport mode alternative among tourists. On the other hand, Madrid is chosen by tourists irrespective of the presence of an efficient HSR network. Data collected from the two surveys have been used for a further quantitative analysis. Regression models have been specified and parameters have been calibrated to identify the factors influencing holidaymakers to revisit Paris and Madrid and visit other tourist places accessible by HSR from these capitals

A semantic-based approach to attain reproducibility of computational environments in scientific workflows: a case study

Reproducible research in scientific workflows is often addressed by tracking the provenance of the produced results. While this approach allows inspecting intermediate and final results, improves understanding, and permits replaying a workflow execution, it does not ensure that the computational environment is available for subsequent executions to reproduce the experiment. In this work, we propose describing the resources involved in the execution of an experiment using a set of semantic vocabularies, so as to conserve the computational environment. We define a process for documenting the workflow application, management system, and their dependencies based on 4 domain ontologies. We then conduct an experimental evaluation using a real workflow application on an academic and a public Cloud platform. Results show that our approach can reproduce an equivalent execution environment of a predefined virtual machine image on both computing platforms.

Using the Cross-Entropy Method for Control Optimization: A Case Study of See-and-Avoid on Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

This paper presents an adaptation of the Cross-Entropy (CE) method to optimize fuzzy logic controllers. The CE is a recently developed optimization method based on a general Monte-Carlo approach to combinatorial and continuous multi-extremal optimization and importance sampling. This work shows the application of this optimization method to optimize the inputs gains, the location and size of the different membership functions' sets of each variable, as well as the weight of each rule from the rule's base of a fuzzy logic controller (FLC). The control system approach presented in this work was designed to command the orientation of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to modify its trajectory for avoiding collisions. An onboard looking forward camera was used to sense the environment of the UAV. The information extracted by the image processing algorithm is the only input of the fuzzy control approach to avoid the collision with a predefined object. Real tests with a quadrotor have been done to corroborate the improved behavior of the optimized controllers at different stages of the optimization process.

Modelo de gestión de un embalse en tiempo real durante avenidas basado en redes bayesianas entrenadas con el método de optimización PLEM

En la actualidad, la gestión de embalses para el control de avenidas se realiza, comúnmente, utilizando modelos de simulación. Esto se debe, principalmente, a su facilidad de uso en tiempo real por parte del operador de la presa. Se han desarrollado modelos de optimización de la gestión del embalse que, aunque mejoran los resultados de los modelos de simulación, su aplicación en tiempo real se hace muy difícil o simplemente inviable, pues está limitada al conocimiento de la avenida futura que entra al embalse antes de tomar la decisión de vertido. Por esta razón, se ha planteado el objetivo de desarrollar un modelo de gestión de embalses en avenidas que incorpore las ventajas de un modelo de optimización y que sea de fácil uso en tiempo real por parte del gestor de la presa. Para ello, se construyó un modelo de red Bayesiana que representa los procesos de la cuenca vertiente y del embalse y, que aprende de casos generados sintéticamente mediante un modelo hidrológico agregado y un modelo de optimización de la gestión del embalse. En una primera etapa, se generó un gran número de episodios sintéticos de avenida utilizando el método de Monte Carlo, para obtener las lluvias, y un modelo agregado compuesto de transformación lluvia- escorrentía, para obtener los hidrogramas de avenida. Posteriormente, se utilizaron las series obtenidas como señales de entrada al modelo de gestión de embalses PLEM, que optimiza una función objetivo de costes mediante programación lineal entera mixta, generando igual número de eventos óptimos de caudal vertido y de evolución de niveles en el embalse. Los episodios simulados fueron usados para entrenar y evaluar dos modelos de red Bayesiana, uno que pronostica el caudal de entrada al embalse, y otro que predice el caudal vertido, ambos en un horizonte de tiempo que va desde una a cinco horas, en intervalos de una hora. En el caso de la red Bayesiana hidrológica, el caudal de entrada que se elige es el promedio de la distribución de probabilidad de pronóstico. En el caso de la red Bayesiana hidráulica, debido al comportamiento marcadamente no lineal de este proceso y a que la red Bayesiana devuelve un rango de posibles valores de caudal vertido, se ha desarrollado una metodología para seleccionar un único valor, que facilite el trabajo del operador de la presa. Esta metodología consiste en probar diversas estrategias propuestas, que incluyen zonificaciones y alternativas de selección de un único valor de caudal vertido en cada zonificación, a un conjunto suficiente de episodios sintéticos. Los resultados de cada estrategia se compararon con el método MEV, seleccionándose las estrategias que mejoran los resultados del MEV, en cuanto al caudal máximo vertido y el nivel máximo alcanzado por el embalse, cualquiera de las cuales puede usarse por el operador de la presa en tiempo real para el embalse de estudio (Talave). La metodología propuesta podría aplicarse a cualquier embalse aislado y, de esta manera, obtener, para ese embalse particular, diversas estrategias que mejoran los resultados del MEV. Finalmente, a modo de ejemplo, se ha aplicado la metodología a una avenida sintética, obteniendo el caudal vertido y el nivel del embalse en cada intervalo de tiempo, y se ha aplicado el modelo MIGEL para obtener en cada instante la configuración de apertura de los órganos de desagüe que evacuarán el caudal. Currently, the dam operator for the management of dams uses simulation models during flood events, mainly due to its ease of use in real time. Some models have been developed to optimize the management of the reservoir to improve the results of simulation models. However, real-time application becomes very difficult or simply unworkable, because the decision to discharge depends on the unknown future avenue entering the reservoir. For this reason, the main goal is to develop a model of reservoir management at avenues that incorporates the advantages of an optimization model. At the same time, it should be easy to use in real-time by the dam manager. For this purpose, a Bayesian network model has been developed to represent the processes of the watershed and reservoir. This model learns from cases generated synthetically by a hydrological model and an optimization model for managing the reservoir. In a first stage, a large number of synthetic flood events was generated using the Monte Carlo method, for rain, and rain-added processing model composed of runoff for the flood hydrographs. Subsequently, the series obtained were used as input signals to the reservoir management model PLEM that optimizes a target cost function using mixed integer linear programming. As a result, many optimal discharge rate events and water levels in the reservoir levels were generated. The simulated events were used to train and test two models of Bayesian network. The first one predicts the flow into the reservoir, and the second predicts the discharge flow. They work in a time horizon ranging from one to five hours, in intervals of an hour. In the case of hydrological Bayesian network, the chosen inflow is the average of the probability distribution forecast. In the case of hydraulic Bayesian network the highly non-linear behavior of this process results on a range of possible values of discharge flow. A methodology to select a single value has been developed to facilitate the dam operator work. This methodology tests various strategies proposed. They include zoning and alternative selection of a single value in each discharge rate zoning from a sufficient set of synthetic episodes. The results of each strategy are compared with the MEV method. The strategies that improve the outcomes of MEV are selected and can be used by the dam operator in real time applied to the reservoir study case (Talave). The methodology could be applied to any single reservoir and, thus, obtain, for the particular reservoir, various strategies that improve results from MEV. Finally, the methodology has been applied to a synthetic flood, obtaining the discharge flow and the reservoir level in each time interval. The open configuration floodgates to evacuate the flow at each interval have been obtained applying the MIGEL model.