Bayesian model selection methodology for road safety

Road accidents are a very relevant issue in many countries and macroeconomic models are very frequently applied by academia and administrations to reduce their frequency and consequences. The selection of explanatory variables and response transformation parameter within the Bayesian framework for the selection of the set of explanatory variables a TIM and 3IM (two input and three input models) procedures are proposed. The procedure also uses the DIC and pseudo -R2 goodness of fit criteria. The model to which the methodology is applied is a dynamic regression model with Box-Cox transformation (BCT) for the explanatory variables and autorgressive (AR) structure for the response. The initial set of 22 explanatory variables are identified. The effects of these factors on the fatal accident frequency in Spain, during 2000-2012, are estimated. The dependent variable is constructed considering the stochastic trend component.

Bayesian model selection of structural explanatory models: Application to road accident data

Using the Bayesian approach as the model selection criteria, the main purpose in this study is to establish a practical road accident model that can provide a better interpretation and prediction performance. For this purpose we are using a structural explanatory model with autoregressive error term. The model estimation is carried out through Bayesian inference and the best model is selected based on the goodness of fit measures. To cross validate the model estimation further prediction analysis were done. As the road safety measures the number of fatal accidents in Spain, during 2000-2011 were employed. The results of the variable selection process show that the factors explaining fatal road accidents are mainly exposure, economic factors, and surveillance and legislative measures. The model selection shows that the impact of economic factors on fatal accidents during the period under study has been higher compared to surveillance and legislative measures.

Assessing construction and demolition waste on masonry works to avoid future generation

The difficulty of dealing with construction and demolition waste (CDW) on construction sites is not new and continues to be a significant environmental problem. Currently the CDW collection system in Spain is done in a decentralized manner by each sub-contracted company, being necessary to implement effective waste management measures ensuring a correct management and minimization. During the last years several measures have been launched in order to improve and encourage the reuse and recycling of CDW. A widespread solution for CDW recovery is using them as a landscaping aggregate or for road bases and sub-bases. However, measures encouraging onsite prevention still need to be enhanced. This paper studies the major work stage generating CDW and analyses the categories of CDW produced during its execution. For this, several real building sites have been analysed in order to quantify the estimation of CDW generated. Results of this study show that a significant contributor to the CDW generation on building construction sites in Spain are the masonry works. Finally, a Best Practices Manual (BPM) is proposed containing several strategies on masonry works aimed not only at CDW prevention, but also at improving their management and minimization. The use of this BPM together with the Study and Plan of CDW management --required by law--, promotes the environmental management of the company, favouring the cohesion of the construction process organization at all stages giving rise to establishing responsibilities in the field of waste and providing a greater control over the process. Keywords: construction and demolition waste, management, masonry works, good practice measures, prevention.

Sight distance studies on roads: influence of digital elevation models and roadside elements

Sight distance plays an important role in road traffic safety. Two types of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) are utilized for the estimation of available sight distance in roads: Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) and Digital Surface Models (DSMs). DTMs, which represent the bare ground surface, are commonly used to determine available sight distance at the design stage. Additionally, the use of DSMs provides further information about elements by the roadsides such as trees, buildings, walls or even traffic signals which may reduce available sight distance. This document analyses the influence of three classes of DEMs in available sight distance estimation. For this purpose, diverse roads within the Region of Madrid (Spain) have been studied using software based on geographic information systems. The study evidences the influence of using each DEM in the outcome as well as the pros and cons of using each model.

Methodologies to measure and to manage the decarbonisation of road transport: the case of Spain

El sector del transporte por carretera es uno de los principales contribuyentes de consumo de combustible y emisiones de España. Por lo tanto, la evaluación de los impactos ambientales del tráfico rodado es esencial para los programas de mitigación del cambio climático y la eficiencia energética. Sin embargo, uno de los retos en la planificación del transporte y el diseño de políticas consiste en la aplicación de metodologías de evaluación de emisiones consistentes, el diseño de estrategias y la evaluación de su eficacia. Las metodologías existentes de evaluación de las emisiones del transporte por carretera, utilizan diferentes niveles de análisis y períodos. Sin embargo, estos análisis son puntuales y no existe una continuidad en el análisis de diferentes estrategias o políticas. Esta tesis doctoral proporciona conocimientos y herramientas para el análisis de las políticas destinadas a reducir las emisiones de tráfico, tomando España como caso de estudio. La investigación se estructura en dos partes: i) el desarrollo y aplicación de metodologías para el análisis de factores y políticas que contribuyen en la evolución de las emisiones GEI del transporte por carretera en España; desde una perspectiva nacional; y ii) el desarrollo y aplicación de un marco metodológico para estimar las emisiones del tráfico interurbano y de evaluar estrategias centradas en la operación del tráfico y en la infraestructura. En resumen, esta tesis demuestra la idoneidad de utilizar diferentes herramientas para analizar las emisiones de tráfico desde diferentes puntos de vista. Desde el diseño de políticas de mitigación y eficiencia energética a nivel nacional, a estrategias centradas en la operación del tráfico interurbano y la infraestructura. Road transport is one of the major contributors to fuel consumption and emissions in Spain. Consequently, assessing the environmental impacts of road traffic is essential for climate change mitigation and energy efficiency programs. However, one of the key challenges of policy makers and transport planners consists of implementing consistent assessment emissions methodologies, applying mitigation strategies, and knowing their effectiveness. Current state-of-the-art emissions assessment methodologies estimate emissions from different levels and periods, using different approaches. Nevertheless, these studies are timely and they usually take different methodologies for analysing different strategies or policies, regardless of the assessment as a whole. This doctoral thesis provides knowledge and methodologies for analysing policies designed to reduce road traffic emissions, using the case study of Spain. The research procedure consists of two main scopes: i) the development and application of methodologies for analysing key factors and policies driving the GHG emissions of road transport in Spain; from a national perspective; and ii) the development and application of a road traffic emissions model for assessing operational and infrastructure strategies of the interurban road network at segment level. In summary, this thesis demonstrates the appropriateness to use different tools to analyse road traffic emissions at different levels: from appropriate nationwide mitigation and energy efficiency policies, to strategies focused on the operation of interurban traffic and infrastructure.

A methodology to compute emission projections from road transport (EmiTRANS)

Atmospheric emissions from road transport have increased all around the world during the last decades more rapidly than from other pollution sources. For instance, they contribute to more than 25% of total CO, CO2, NOx, and fine particle emissions in most of the European countries. This situation shows the importance of road transport when complying with emission ceilings and air quality standards applied to these pollutants. This paper presents a modelling system to perform atmospheric emission projections (simultaneously both air quality pollutants and greenhouse gases) from road transport including the development of a tailored software tool (EmiTRANS) as a planning tool. The methodology has been developed with two purposes: 1) to obtain outputs used as inputs to the COPERT4 software to calculate emission projections and 2) to summarize outputs for policy making evaluating the effect of emission abatement measures for a vehicle fleet. This methodology has been applied to the calculation of emission projections in Spain up to 2020 under several scenarios, including a sensitivity analysis useful for a better interpretation and confidence building on the results. This case study demonstrates the EmiTRANS applicability to a country, and points out the need for combining both technical and non-technical measures (such as behavioural changes or demand management) to reduce emissions, indirectly improving air quality and contributing to mitigate climate change.

Evaluating the equity effects of road-pricing in the European urban context - The Madrid Metropolitan Area

The paper identifies the potential spatial and social impacts of a proposed road-pricing scheme for different social groups in the Madrid Metropolitan Area (MMA). We appraise the accessibility of different districts within the MMA in terms of the actual and perceived cost of using the road infrastructure ‘before’ and ‘after’ implementation of the scheme. The appraisal framework was developed using quantitative survey data and qualitative focus group discussions with residents. We then simulated user behaviours (mode and route choice) based on the empirical evidence from a travel demand model for the MMA. The results from our simulation model demonstrated that implementation of the toll on the orbital metropolitan motorways (M40, M30, for example) decreases accessibility mostly in the districts where there are no viable public transport alternatives. Our specific study finding is that the economic burden of the road-pricing scheme particularly affects unskilled and lower income individuals living in the south of the MMA. The focus groups confirmed that low income drivers in the south part of the MMA would reduce their use of tolled roads and have to find new arrangements for these trips: i.e. switch to public transport, spend double the time travelling or stay at home. More generally, our research finds that European transport planners are still a long way from recognising the social equity implications of their policy decisions and that more thorough social appraisals are needed to avoid the social exclusion of low income populations when road tolling is proposed.

Optimal safety incentives in road concession contracts

Changes in the roles of the government and the private sector in the provision of public services along with budget constraints are resulting in an increasing use of the concession approach for financing and managing roads. In the last few years, many of these contracts set up incentives linked to bonuses to encourage the concessionaire to render a better service to the users. Road safety is one the aspects on the basis of which concessionaires can be rewarded according to their performance. The goal of this paper is to evaluate whether road safety incentives are being defined in the right way nowadays in different European countries and also identify what incentives would need to be implemented to achieve a socially optimal road safety level. To that end, we develop a specific incentive for road concession contracts that encourages companies to achieve the optimal level. We apply this methodology to three case studies of concessions recently awarded in order to determine to what extend the incentives they set up are closer or farther to the optimum.

Dynamic behaviour of underspanned suspension road bridges under traffic loads

Underspanned suspension bridges are structures with important economical and aesthetic advantages, due to their high structural efficiency. However, road bridges of this typology are still uncommon because of limited knowledge about this structural system. In particular, there remains some uncertainty over the dynamic behaviour of these bridges, due to their extreme lightness. The vibrations produced by vehicles crossing the viaduct are one of the main concerns. In this work, traffic-induced dynamic effects on this kind of viaduct are addressed by means of vehicle-bridge dynamic interaction models. A finite element method is used for the structure, and multibody dynamic models for the vehicles, while interaction is represented by means of the penalty method. Road roughness is included in this model in such a way that the fact that profiles under left and right tyres are different, but not independent, is taken into account. In addition, free software {PRPgenerator) to generate these profiles is presented in this paper. The structural dynamic sensitivity of underspanned suspension bridges was found to be considerable, as well as the dynamic amplification factors and deck accelerations. It was also found that vehicle speed has a relevant influence on the results. In addition, the impact of bridge deformation on vehicle vibration was addressed, and the effect on the comfort of vehicle users was shown to be negligible.

Road Dust Emission Sources and Assessment of Street Washing Effect

Although previous studies report on the effect of street washing on ambient particulate matter levels, there is a lack of studies investigating the results of street washing on the emission strength of road dust. A sampling campaign was conducted in Madrid urban area during July 2009 where road dust samples were collected in two sites, namely Reference site (where the road surface was not washed) and Pelayo site (where street washing was performed daily during night). Following the chemical characterization of the road dust particles the emission sources were resolved by means of Positive Matrix Factorization, PMF (Multilinear Engine scripting) and the mass contribution of each source was calculated for the two sites. Mineral dust, brake wear, tire wear, carbonaceous emissions and construction dust were the main sources of road dust with mineral and construction dust being the major contributors to inhalable road dust load. To evaluate the effectiveness of street washing on the emission sources, the sources mass contributions between the two sites were compared. Although brake wear and tire wear had lower concentrations at the site where street washing was performed, these mass differences were not statistically significant and the temporal variation did not show the expected build-up after dust removal. It was concluded that the washing activities resulted merely in a road dust moistening, without effective removal and that mobilization of particles took place in a few hours between washing and sampling. The results also indicated that it is worth paying attention to the dust dispersed from the construction sites as they affect the emission strength in nearby streets.

ICT Road map for supporting energy systems in smart cities

This paper introduces a road map for ICTs (Information and communication technologies) supporting planning, operation and management of energy systems in smart cities. The road map summarises different elements that form energy systems in cities and proposes research and technical development (RTD) and innovation activities for the development and innovation of ICTs for holistic design, planning and operation of energy systems. In addition, synergies with other ICT systems for smart cities are considered. There are four main target groups for the road map: 1) citizen; 2) building sector; 3) energy sector; and 4) municipality level. As an example for enabling active participation of citizens, the road map proposes how ICT can enable citizens? involvement among others into building design. The building sector roadmap proposes how ICTs can support the planning of buildings and renovations in the future, as well as how to manage building energy systems. The energy sector road map focuses on city?s energy systems and their planning and management, including e.g. demand side management, management of different district level energy systems, energy performance validation and management, energy data models, and smarter use of open energy data. Moreover, the municipality level road map proposes among others ICTs for better integration of city systems and city planning enabling maximised energy efficiency. In addition, one road map section suggests development needs related to open energy data, including among others the use of energy data and the development and harmonisation of energy data models. The road map has been assembled in the READY4SmartCities project (funded by EU 7th Framework Programme), which focuses on the energy system at the city level, consisting of centralised energy systems and connections to the national level energy grids, as well as interconnections to the neighbourhood and building level energy systems.

Evaluating the spatial and social equity effects of road pricing in the European urban context: the Madrid Metropolitan Area.

The paper explores the spatial and social impacts arising from implementation of a road-pricing scheme in the Madrid Metropolitan Area (MMA). Our analytical focus is on understanding the effects of the scheme on the transport accessibility of different social groups within the MMA. We define an evaluation framework to appraise the accessibility of different districts within the MMA in terms of the actual and perceived cost of using the road infrastructure "before" and "after" the implementation of the scheme. The framework was developed using quantitative survey data and qualitative data from focus group discussions with residents. We then simulated user behaviors (mode and route choice) based on the empirical evidence from a travel demand model for the MMA. The results from our simulation model demonstrated that implementation of the toll on the orbital metropolitan motorways (M40, M30, for example) decreases accessibility, mostly in the districts where there are no viable public transport alternatives. Our key finding is that the economic burden of the road-pricing scheme particularly affects unskilled and lower income individuals living in the south of the MMA. Consequently lower income people reduce their use of tolled roads and have to find new arrangements for these trips: i.e. switch to the public transport, spend double the time for their commuter trips or stay at home. The results of our research could be applicable more widely for anyone wishing to better understand the important relationship between increased transport cost and social equity, especially where there is an intention to introduce similar road-pricing schemes within the urban context.

Spatial analysis of geometric design consistency and road sight distance

Because of the high number of crashes occurring on highways, it is necessary to intensify the search for new tools that help in understanding their causes. This research explores the use of a geographic information system (GIS) for an integrated analysis, taking into account two accident-related factors: design consistency (DC) (based on vehicle speed) and available sight distance (ASD) (based on visibility). Both factors require specific GIS software add-ins, which are explained. Digital terrain models (DTMs), vehicle paths, road centerlines, a speed prediction model, and crash data are integrated in the GIS. The usefulness of this approach has been assessed through a study of more than 500 crashes. From a regularly spaced grid, the terrain (bare ground) has been modeled through a triangulated irregular network (TIN). The length of the roads analyzed is greater than 100 km. Results have shown that DC and ASD could be related to crashes in approximately 4% of cases. In order to illustrate the potential of GIS, two crashes are fully analyzed: a car rollover after running off road on the right side and a rear-end collision of two moving vehicles. Although this procedure uses two software add-ins that are available only for ArcGIS, the study gives a practical demonstration of the suitability of GIS for conducting integrated studies of road safety.

Vehicle induced loads on pedestrian barriers

This paper is a continuation of a previous one, Sanz-Andrés, Santiago-Prowald, Baker and Quinn (J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 91 (2003) 925) concerning the loads generated on a structural panel (traffic sign) by vehicle running along the road, although obviously, the results are also applicable to the effects of other moving vehicles such as trains. The structural panel was modelized as a large plate whose largest dimension is perpendicular to the vehicle motion direction. In this paper a similar approach is used to develop a mathematical model for the vehicle-induced load on pedestrian barriers, modelized as a large plate whose largest dimension is parallel to the vehicle motion direction. The purpose of the work is to develop a model simple enough to give analytical results, although with the physical phenomena correctly accounted for, such as to be able to explain, at least qualitatively, the main characteristics of the phenomenon, as observed in the experiments performed by Quinn et al. (J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 89 (2001) 831). Actually, in spite of the model simplicity, results of the theoretical model show a reasonable good quantitative agreement with the experimental results. The aim of this and previous publications is to provide to the transport infrastructure community with some simple tools that can help to explain, and in some cases also to compute, the unsteady loading produced by moving vehicles on persons and installations placed close to the roads or tracks.

Road to 1966 : caminos hacia "complejidad y contradicción en la arquitectura", en la cultura arquitectónica de la segunda posguerra en EE.UU

Complejidad y contradicción en la arquitectura ha resultado ser una de las referencias capitales más aludidas, citadas y reproducidas de la literatura arquitectónica de los tiempos recientes. No en vano, en la introducción de la propia obra, Vincent Scully afirmó que «probablemente es el texto más importante sobre arquitectura desde ‘Vers une Architecture’, escrito por Le Corbusier en 1923». Sin embargo, sus fuentes parece que están inexploradas o, al menos, no examinadas. Por ello, Road to 1966 se plantea como un trabajo de investigación con tres objetivos de partida fundamentales: (1) el interés en estudiar el debate arquitectónico candente, creado con las fricciones surgidas entre los protagonistas de unos años que cambiaron el estado de lo que se consideraba una obra legítima en arquitectura; (2) se pretende ampliar la cronología del desarrollo intelectual de un texto, el de Venturi, que marcó la segunda mitad del siglo xx, de manera retroactiva hasta los años de la II Guerra Mundial, cuando parece que empezaban a ser coherentes y reconocibles unas nuevas posiciones desde las que aproximarse a las cuestiones de la práctica, la teoría y la historia de la arquitectura; (3) poder ofrecer una nueva interpretación de dicho texto de Venturi, entendido no como el origen primigenio de parte de las grandes transformaciones de la arquitectura reciente (de los últimos cincuenta años), sino como el resultado necesario de esa cronología intelectual previa. La arquitectura norteamericana de estos años de posguerra ha resultado ser crucial en su posterior desarrollo, y, especialmente, en relación al libro de Venturi. De hecho, Scully en la introducción de la edición original de Complejidad y contradicción, señalaba que «el principal argumento del libro está expuesto a finales de los cincuenta». Que la arquitectura del siglo xx tiene en la Norteamérica de los años sesenta -cuando se consolida la figura de Venturi- uno de sus capítulos más decisivos, frecuentemente asumido como el paso siguiente a la importada modernidad heroica europea, hoy parece no ser discutido por casi nadie. Ahora bien: ¿qué ocurre con los años intermedios? ¿Qué acontece entre el final de la II Guerra Mundial y esos años sesenta? La posible carencia de una postura dominante y clara quizás haya sumido esta etapa en un cierto olvido o descuido por parte de historiadores y críticos. Así, este trabajo se estructura alrededor del papel que ocupa el texto venturiano, sin ser éste su único protagonista. Tomado más bien como excusa, la tesis va profundizando de manera deductiva en el conjunto de circunstancias que pudieron llevar a su autor hacia las conclusiones que desarrolló, detectando los ambientes biográficos y formativos, pensamientos compartidos e influencias epistemológicas y profesionales mutuas, que justificarían una novedosa interpretación de dicho texto como el corolario necesario de un panorama de crisis y cambios - éste sí protagonista en este trabajo-, al contrario de cómo habitualmente se ha venido entendiendo dicha obra. La investigación se centra predominantemente en el rastreo de las fuentes citadas por el propio Venturi en su libro, así como de los textos de mayor difusión (generalmente revistas profesionales no exclusivamente académicas, además de libros, catálogos de exposiciones, actas de simposios…), y no tanto en las obras construidas o proyectadas; sí, quizás, en los términos en los que dichas obras fueron publicadas, comentadas o reseñadas. Así, se ha adoptado una aproximación concebida sub specie bibliotecae, donde se han aplicado unos métodos de trabajo caracterizados por su componente cronológica, y, después, analítico-comparativa: dicho de otro modo, un método historiográfico-periodístico capaz de relacionar las historias o cursos de ciertas ideas o nociones, dentro de un contexto general más amplio en sus derivadas arquitectónicas, estéticas, socio-generacionales, culturales, filosóficas, científicas, políticas, literarias… Con ello, se pretende establecer una relectura del primer libro de Venturi y sus años de gestación desde unas nuevas concepciones, más modernas que postmodern(ist)as, proponiendo una posible evolución en la arquitectura más reciente cuyas raíces, a fin de cuentas, tendrían su origen en la Norteamérica de 1946 a 1966. ABSTRACT Complexity and Contradiction in Architecture has proved to be one of the capital, alluded references cited and reproduced in the architectural literature of the recent times. Not surprisingly, in the Introduction to the book, Vincent Scully wrote that "yet it is probably the most important writing on the making of architecture since Le Corbusier´s ‘Vers une Architecture’, of 1923". However, its sources seem to be unexplored or at least not examined. Therefore, Road to 1966 is presented as a research with three fundamental starting objectives: (1) first, the interest in studying the burning architectural debate, created within the arising frictions among the protagonists of the years that changed the status of what was considered a legitimate work in architecture; (2) second, it seeks to extend the chronology of the intellectual background of the book written by Venturi, which marked the second half of the twentieth century, in a retroactive manner to the years of the World War II, when it seems that some new positions from which to approach the issues of practice, theory and history of architecture began to be consistent and recognizable; (3) lastly, to offer a new interpretation of Venturi’s text, now understood not as the primal source of the great transformations of the recent architecture (of the last fifty years), but as the necessary result of that background intellectual chronology. The American architecture of these post-war years has proved to be crucial in its later stages, and especially in relation to the book of Robert Venturi. In fact, Scully in the Introduction to the first edition of Complexity and Contradiction, noted that "the major argument of this book was laid out in the late fifties". The fact that the architecture of the twentieth century –when the leading figure of Venturi was consolidated- has in the North America of the sixties one of its most decisive chapters, (often assumed as the next step to the imported European heroic modernism) today seems to be discussed by almost anyone. Now, what about the intervening years? What happens between the end of the World War II and the sixties? The potential lack of a clear dominant position of this stage may have plunged it into oblivion or oversight by historians and critics. Thus, this research is structured around the role that occupies Venturi’s work, whereas this is not its only subject. Rather taken as an excuse, the thesis deepens deductively in the set of circumstances that could lead its author to the conclusions he developed in 1966, detecting biographical and academic environments, shared thoughts and epistemological and mutual professional influences, that would justify a new interpretation of this book as a necessary corollary of an outlook of crisis and change (this major and center subject in this dissertation), contrary to what has been commonly understood upon this work. The research focuses predominantly on tracing the sources cited by Venturi himself in his book, as well as other texts of wider dissemination and outreach (usually professional journals not exclusively academic, as well as books, catalogs of exhibitions, symposia proceedings...), and not so much in the buildings or unbuilt projects; but also, perhaps, it is focused in the terms in which these works were published, commented or reviewed. Hence an approach conceived sub specie bibliotecae has been adopted, with working methods characterized by their chronological component, and then the analytical-comparative one: in other words, a historiographicaljournalistic method able to relate stories or courses of certain ideas or notions, within a broader general context in its architectural, aesthetic, sociological-generational, cultural, philosophical, scientific, political, literary... sides. This approach intends to establish a re-reading of Venturi’s first book and its years of gestation, from some new understandings, more modern than postmodern(ist), proposing a possible evolution of the latest architecture whose roots, after all, would have their origin in the North America of 1946-1966.