Modelización de series temporales complejas: de las redes de telecomunicación a los mercados financieros

Este trabajo aborda el problema de modelizar sistemas din´amicos reales a partir del estudio de sus series temporales, usando una formulaci´on est´andar que pretende ser una abstracci´on universal de los sistemas din´amicos, independientemente de su naturaleza determinista, estoc´astica o h´ıbrida. Se parte de modelizaciones separadas de sistemas deterministas por un lado y estoc´asticos por otro, para converger finalmente en un modelo h´ıbrido que permite estudiar sistemas gen´ericos mixtos, esto es, que presentan una combinaci´on de comportamiento determinista y aleatorio. Este modelo consta de dos componentes, uno determinista consistente en una ecuaci´on en diferencias, obtenida a partir de un estudio de autocorrelaci´on, y otro estoc´astico que modeliza el error cometido por el primero. El componente estoc´astico es un generador universal de distribuciones de probabilidad, basado en un proceso compuesto de variables aleatorias, uniformemente distribuidas en un intervalo variable en el tiempo. Este generador universal es deducido en la tesis a partir de una nueva teor´ıa sobre la oferta y la demanda de un recurso gen´erico. El modelo resultante puede formularse conceptualmente como una entidad con tres elementos fundamentales: un motor generador de din´amica determinista, una fuente interna de ruido generadora de incertidumbre y una exposici´on al entorno que representa las interacciones del sistema real con el mundo exterior. En las aplicaciones estos tres elementos se ajustan en base al hist´orico de las series temporales del sistema din´amico. Una vez ajustados sus componentes, el modelo se comporta de una forma adaptativa tomando como inputs los nuevos valores de las series temporales del sistema y calculando predicciones sobre su comportamiento futuro. Cada predicci´on se presenta como un intervalo dentro del cual cualquier valor es equipro- bable, teniendo probabilidad nula cualquier valor externo al intervalo. De esta forma el modelo computa el comportamiento futuro y su nivel de incertidumbre en base al estado actual del sistema. Se ha aplicado el modelo en esta tesis a sistemas muy diferentes mostrando ser muy flexible para afrontar el estudio de campos de naturaleza dispar. El intercambio de tr´afico telef´onico entre operadores de telefon´ıa, la evoluci´on de mercados financieros y el flujo de informaci´on entre servidores de Internet son estudiados en profundidad en la tesis. Todos estos sistemas son modelizados de forma exitosa con un mismo lenguaje, a pesar de tratarse de sistemas f´ısicos totalmente distintos. El estudio de las redes de telefon´ıa muestra que los patrones de tr´afico telef´onico presentan una fuerte pseudo-periodicidad semanal contaminada con una gran cantidad de ruido, sobre todo en el caso de llamadas internacionales. El estudio de los mercados financieros muestra por su parte que la naturaleza fundamental de ´estos es aleatoria con un rango de comportamiento relativamente acotado. Una parte de la tesis se dedica a explicar algunas de las manifestaciones emp´ıricas m´as importantes en los mercados financieros como son los “fat tails”, “power laws” y “volatility clustering”. Por ´ultimo se demuestra que la comunicaci´on entre servidores de Internet tiene, al igual que los mercados financieros, una componente subyacente totalmente estoc´astica pero de comportamiento bastante “d´ocil”, siendo esta docilidad m´as acusada a medida que aumenta la distancia entre servidores. Dos aspectos son destacables en el modelo, su adaptabilidad y su universalidad. El primero es debido a que, una vez ajustados los par´ametros generales, el modelo se “alimenta” de los valores observables del sistema y es capaz de calcular con ellos comportamientos futuros. A pesar de tener unos par´ametros fijos, la variabilidad en los observables que sirven de input al modelo llevan a una gran riqueza de ouputs posibles. El segundo aspecto se debe a la formulaci´on gen´erica del modelo h´ıbrido y a que sus par´ametros se ajustan en base a manifestaciones externas del sistema en estudio, y no en base a sus caracter´ısticas f´ısicas. Estos factores hacen que el modelo pueda utilizarse en gran variedad de campos. Por ´ultimo, la tesis propone en su parte final otros campos donde se han obtenido ´exitos preliminares muy prometedores como son la modelizaci´on del riesgo financiero, los algoritmos de routing en redes de telecomunicaci´on y el cambio clim´atico. Abstract This work faces the problem of modeling dynamical systems based on the study of its time series, by using a standard language that aims to be an universal abstraction of dynamical systems, irrespective of their deterministic, stochastic or hybrid nature. Deterministic and stochastic models are developed separately to be merged subsequently into a hybrid model, which allows the study of generic systems, that is to say, those having both deterministic and random behavior. This model is a combination of two different components. One of them is deterministic and consisting in an equation in differences derived from an auto-correlation study and the other is stochastic and models the errors made by the deterministic one. The stochastic component is an universal generator of probability distributions based on a process consisting in random variables distributed uniformly within an interval varying in time. This universal generator is derived in the thesis from a new theory of offer and demand for a generic resource. The resulting model can be visualized as an entity with three fundamental elements: an engine generating deterministic dynamics, an internal source of noise generating uncertainty and an exposure to the environment which depicts the interactions between the real system and the external world. In the applications these three elements are adjusted to the history of the time series from the dynamical system. Once its components have been adjusted, the model behaves in an adaptive way by using the new time series values from the system as inputs and calculating predictions about its future behavior. Every prediction is provided as an interval, where any inner value is equally probable while all outer ones have null probability. So, the model computes the future behavior and its level of uncertainty based on the current state of the system. The model is applied to quite different systems in this thesis, showing to be very flexible when facing the study of fields with diverse nature. The exchange of traffic between telephony operators, the evolution of financial markets and the flow of information between servers on the Internet are deeply studied in this thesis. All these systems are successfully modeled by using the same “language”, in spite the fact that they are systems physically radically different. The study of telephony networks shows that the traffic patterns are strongly weekly pseudo-periodic but mixed with a great amount of noise, specially in the case of international calls. It is proved that the underlying nature of financial markets is random with a moderate range of variability. A part of this thesis is devoted to explain some of the most important empirical observations in financial markets, such as “fat tails”, “power laws” and “volatility clustering”. Finally it is proved that the communication between two servers on the Internet has, as in the case of financial markets, an underlaying random dynamics but with a narrow range of variability, being this lack of variability more marked as the distance between servers is increased. Two aspects of the model stand out as being the most important: its adaptability and its universality. The first one is due to the fact that once the general parameters have been adjusted , the model is “fed” on the observable manifestations of the system in order to calculate its future behavior. Despite the fact that the model has fixed parameters the variability in the observable manifestations of the system, which are used as inputs of the model, lead to a great variability in the possible outputs. The second aspect is due to the general “language” used in the formulation of the hybrid model and to the fact that its parameters are adjusted based on external manifestations of the system under study instead of its physical characteristics. These factors made the model suitable to be used in great variety of fields. Lastly, this thesis proposes other fields in which preliminary and promising results have been obtained, such as the modeling of financial risk, the development of routing algorithms for telecommunication networks and the assessment of climate change.

Quality of Service (QoS) in MPLS networks

Telecommunications networks have been always expanding and thanks to it, new services have appeared. The old mechanisms for carrying packets have become obsolete due to the new service requirements, which have begun working in real time. Real time traffic requires strict service guarantees. When this traffic is sent through the network, enough resources must be given in order to avoid delays and information losses. When browsing through the Internet and requesting web pages, data must be sent from a server to the user. If during the transmission there is any packet drop, the packet is sent again. For the end user, it does not matter if the webpage loads in one or two seconds more. But if the user is maintaining a conversation with a VoIP program, such as Skype, one or two seconds of delay in the conversation may be catastrophic, and none of them can understand the other. In order to provide support for this new services, the networks have to evolve. For this purpose MPLS and QoS were developed. MPLS is a packet carrying mechanism used in high performance telecommunication networks which directs and carries data using pre-established paths. Now, packets are forwarded on the basis of labels, making this process faster than routing the packets with the IP addresses. MPLS also supports Traffic Engineering (TE). This refers to the process of selecting the best paths for data traffic in order to balance the traffic load between the different links. In a network with multiple paths, routing algorithms calculate the shortest one, and most of the times all traffic is directed through it, causing overload and packet drops, without distributing the packets in the other paths that the network offers and do not have any traffic. But this is not enough in order to provide the real time traffic the guarantees it needs. In fact, those mechanisms improve the network, but they do not make changes in how the traffic is treated. That is why Quality of Service (QoS) was developed. Quality of service is the ability to provide different priority to different applications, users, or data flows, or to guarantee a certain level of performance to a data flow. Traffic is distributed into different classes and each of them is treated differently, according to its Service Level Agreement (SLA). Traffic with the highest priority will have the preference over lower classes, but this does not mean it will monopolize all the resources. In order to achieve this goal, a set policies are defined to control and alter how the traffic flows. Possibilities are endless, and it depends in how the network must be structured. By using those mechanisms it is possible to provide the necessary guarantees to the real-time traffic, distributing it between categories inside the network and offering the best service for both real time data and non real time data. Las Redes de Telecomunicaciones siempre han estado en expansión y han propiciado la aparición de nuevos servicios. Los viejos mecanismos para transportar paquetes se han quedado obsoletos debido a las exigencias de los nuevos servicios, que han comenzado a operar en tiempo real. El tráfico en tiempo real requiere de unas estrictas garantías de servicio. Cuando este tráfico se envía a través de la red, necesita disponer de suficientes recursos para evitar retrasos y pérdidas de información. Cuando se navega por la red y se solicitan páginas web, los datos viajan desde un servidor hasta el usuario. Si durante la transmisión se pierde algún paquete, éste se vuelve a mandar de nuevo. Para el usuario final, no importa si la página tarda uno o dos segundos más en cargar. Ahora bien, si el usuario está manteniendo una conversación usando algún programa de VoIP (como por ejemplo Skype) uno o dos segundos de retardo en la conversación podrían ser catastróficos, y ninguno de los interlocutores sería capaz de entender al otro. Para poder dar soporte a estos nuevos servicios, las redes deben evolucionar. Para este propósito se han concebido MPLS y QoS MPLS es un mecanismo de transporte de paquetes que se usa en redes de telecomunicaciones de alto rendimiento que dirige y transporta los datos de acuerdo a caminos preestablecidos. Ahora los paquetes se encaminan en función de unas etiquetas, lo cual hace que sea mucho más rápido que encaminar los paquetes usando las direcciones IP. MPLS también soporta Ingeniería de Tráfico (TE). Consiste en seleccionar los mejores caminos para el tráfico de datos con el objetivo de balancear la carga entre los diferentes enlaces. En una red con múltiples caminos, los algoritmos de enrutamiento actuales calculan el camino más corto, y muchas veces el tráfico se dirige sólo por éste, saturando el canal, mientras que otras rutas se quedan completamente desocupadas. Ahora bien, esto no es suficiente para ofrecer al tráfico en tiempo real las garantías que necesita. De hecho, estos mecanismos mejoran la red, pero no realizan cambios a la hora de tratar el tráfico. Por esto es por lo que se ha desarrollado el concepto de Calidad de Servicio (QoS). La calidad de servicio es la capacidad para ofrecer diferentes prioridades a las diferentes aplicaciones, usuarios o flujos de datos, y para garantizar un cierto nivel de rendimiento en un flujo de datos. El tráfico se distribuye en diferentes clases y cada una de ellas se trata de forma diferente, de acuerdo a las especificaciones que se indiquen en su Contrato de Tráfico (SLA). EL tráfico con mayor prioridad tendrá preferencia sobre el resto, pero esto no significa que acapare la totalidad de los recursos. Para poder alcanzar estos objetivos se definen una serie de políticas para controlar y alterar el comportamiento del tráfico. Las posibilidades son inmensas dependiendo de cómo se quiera estructurar la red. Usando estos mecanismos se pueden proporcionar las garantías necesarias al tráfico en tiempo real, distribuyéndolo en categorías dentro de la red y ofreciendo el mejor servicio posible tanto a los datos en tiempo real como a los que no lo son.

Actividades online de vocabulario y pronunciación para el nivel de la lengua inglesa A2

El objetivo del presente proyecto es proporcionar una actividad de la pronunciación y repaso de vocabulario en lengua inglesa para la plataforma Moodle alojada en la página web de Integrated Language Learning Lab (ILLLab). La página web ILLLab tiene el objetivo de que los alumnos de la EUIT de Telecomunicación de la UPM con un nivel de inglés A2 según el Marco Común Europeo de Referencia para las Lenguas (MCERL), puedan trabajar de manera autónoma para avanzar hacia el nivel B2 en inglés. La UPM exige estos conocimientos de nivel de inglés para cursar la asignatura English for Professional and Academic Communication (EPAC) de carácter obligatorio e impartida en el séptimo semestre del Grado en Ingeniería de Telecomunicaciones. Asimismo, se persigue abordar el problema de las escasas actividades de expresión oral de las plataformas de autoaprendizaje se dedican a la formación en idiomas y, más concretamente, al inglés. Con ese fin, se proporciona una herramienta basada en sistemas de reconocimiento de voz para que el usuario practique la pronunciación de las palabras inglesas. En el primer capítulo del trabajo se introduce la aplicación Traffic Lights, explicando sus orígenes y en qué consiste. En el segundo capítulo se abordan aspectos teóricos relacionados con el reconocimiento de voz y se comenta sus funciones principales y las aplicaciones actuales para las que se usa. El tercer capítulo ofrece una explicación detallada de los diferentes lenguajes utilizados para la realización del proyecto, así como de su código desarrollado. En el cuarto capítulo se plantea un manual de usuario de la aplicación, exponiendo al usuario cómo funciona la aplicación y un ejemplo de uso. Además, se añade varias secciones para el administrador de la aplicación, en las que se especifica cómo agregar nuevas palabras en la base de datos y hacer cambios en el tiempo estimado que el usuario tiene para acabar una partida del juego. ABSTRACT: The objective of the present project is to provide an activity of pronunciation and vocabulary review in English language within the platform Moodle hosted at the Integrated Language Learning Lab (ILLLab) website. The ILLLab website has the aim to provide students at the EUIT of Telecommunication in the UPM with activities to develop their A2 level according to the Common European Framework of Reference for Languages (CEFR). In the platform, students can work independently to advance towards a B2 level in English. The UPM requires this level of English proficiency for enrolling in the compulsory subject English for Professional and Academic Communication (EPAC) taught in the seventh semester of the Degree in Telecommunications Engineering. Likewise, this project tries to provide alternatives to solve the problem of scarce speaking activities included in the learning platforms that offer language courses, and specifically, English language courses. For this purpose, it provides a tool based on speech recognition systems so that the user can practice the pronunciation of English words. The first chapter of the project introduces the application Traffic Lights, explaining its origins and what it is. The second chapter deals with theoretical aspects related with speech recognition and comments their main features and current applications for which it is generally used. The third chapter provides a detailed explanation of the different programming languages used for the implementation of the project and reviews its code development. The fourth chapter presents an application user manual, exposing to the user how the application works and an example of use. Also, several sections are added addressed to the application administrator, which specify how to add new words to the database and how to make changes in the original stings as could be the estimated time that the user has to finish the game.

Five-year results of a slant-path propagation experiment at 20 GHz in Madrid

Satellite operators are starting to use the Ka-band (30/20 GHz) for communications systems requiring higher traffic capacity. The use of this band is expected to experience a significant growth in the next few years, as several operators have reported plans to launch new satellites with Ka-band capacity. It is worth mentioning the Ka-Sat satellite in Europe, launched in 2010, and ViaSat-1, of 2011, with coverage of USA1. Some other examples can be found in other parts of the World. Recent satellite communications standards, such as DVB-S22 or DVB-RCS3, which provide means to mitigate propagation impairments, have been developed with the objective of improving the use of the Ka-band, in comparison with previous technical standards. In the next years, the ALPHASAT satellite will bring about new opportunities4 for carrying out propagation and telecommunication experiments in the Ka- and Q/V-bands. Commercial uses are focused on the provision of high speed data communications, for Internet access and other applications. In the near future, it is expected that higher and higher data rates will also be needed to broadcast richer multimedia contents, including HD-TV, interactive content or 3D-TV. All of these services may be provided in the future by satellites of the current generation, whose life span can extend up to 2025 in some cases. Depending on local regulations, the available bandwidth for the satellite fixed and broadcasting services in the Ka-band is in excess of several hundred MHz, bidirectional, comprising more than 1 GHz for each sub-band in some cases. In this paper, the results of a propagation experiment that is being carried out at Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), Spain, are presented5. The objective of the experiment is twofold: gathering experimental time series of attenuation and analyzing them in order to characterize the propagation channel at these frequencies6. The experiment and statistical results correspond to five complete years of measurements. The experiment is described in more detail in Section II. Yearly characteristics of rain attenuation are presented in Section III, whereas Section IV is dedicated to the monthly, seasonal, and hourly characteristics. Section V covers the dynamic characteristics of this propagation effect, just before the conclusions are described in Section VI.

How much energy will your NGN consume? A model for energy consumption in next generation access networks: The case of Spain

The contribution to global energy consumption of the information and communications technology (ICT) sector has increased considerably in the last decade, along with its growing relevance to the overall economy. This trend will continue due to the seemingly ever greater use of these technologies, with broadband data traffic generated by the usage of telecommunication networks as a primary component. In fact, in response to user demand, the telecommunications industry is initiating the deployment of next generation networks (NGNs). However, energy consumption is mostly absent from the debate on these deployments, in spite of the potential impact on both expenses and sustainability. In addition, consumers are unaware of the energy impact of their choices in ultra-broadband services. This paper focuses on forecasting energy consumption in the access part of NGNs by modelling the combined effect of the deployment of two different ultra-broadband technologies (FTTH-GPON and LTE), the evolution of traffic per user, and the energy consumption in each of the networks and user devices. Conclusions are presented on the levels of energy consumption, their cost and the impact of different network design parameters. The effect of technological developments, techno-economic and policy decisions on energy consumption is highlighted. On the consumer side, practical figures and comparisons across technologies are provided. Although the paper focuses on Spain, the analysis can be extended to similar countries.

Dealing with traffic risk in Latin American toll roads

Análisis de los sistemas de mitigación del riesgo de tráfico en autopistas de peaje en diferentes países de Latinoamérica. This paper presents a cross-country analysis of traffic risk allocation in road concessions of Latin America. It shows that some countries such as Chile, Colombia, and Peru have been greatly concerned with mitigating traffic risk, either by putting into practice public guarantees, implementing flexible term concessions, or through availability payment concessions; whereas other countries such as Mexico and Brazil have assigned traffic risk to the private concessionaire by using fixed-term concession contracts without any traffic guarantees. Based on an analysis of data from 1990 to 2010, the paper finds that shifting traffic risk from the concessionaire to the government or users was not confined to the riskiest projects, as one might expect. The analysis also suggests that the implementation of traffic risk mitigation mechanisms in Latin American toll roads has not been very successful in reducing renegotiation rates or in increasing the number of bidders in the tenders

Sight distance for traffic safety analysis using GIS

Sight distance is of major importance for road safety either when designing new roads or analysing the alignment of existing roads. It is essential that available sight distance in roads is long enough for emergency stops or overtaking manoeuvres. Also, it is vital for engineers/researchers that the tools used for that analysis are both powerful and intuitive. Based on ArcGIS, the application to be presented not only performs an exhaustive sight distance calculation, but allows an accurate analysis of 3D alignment, using all new tools, from a Digital Elevation Model and vehicle trajectory. The software has been successfully utilised to analyse several two-lane rural roads in Spain. In addition, the software produces thematic maps representing sight distance in which supplementary information about crashes, traffic flow, speed or design consistency could be included, allowing traffic safety studies.

Quality of bus services performance: benefits of real time passenger information systems

One of the main problems in urban areas is the steady growth in car ownership and traffic levels. Therefore, the challenge of sustainability is focused on a shift of the demand for mobility from cars to collective means of transport. For this purpose, buses are a key element of the public transport systems. In this respect Real Time Passenger Information (RTPI) systems help people change their travel behaviour towards more sustainable transport modes. This paper provides an assessment methodology which evaluates how RTPI systems improve the quality of bus services performance in two European cities, Madrid and Bremerhaven. In the case of Madrid, bus punctuality has increased by 3%. Regarding the travellers perception, Madrid raised its quality of service by 6% while Bremerhaven increased by 13%. On the other hand, the users¿ perception of Public Transport (PT) image increased by 14%.

Self-Tuning PID controller for autonomous car tracking in urban traffic

In this paper an on line self-tuned PID controller is proposed for the control of a car whose goal is to follow another one, at distances and speeds typical in urban traffic. The bestknown tuning mechanism is perhaps the MIT rule, due to its ease of implementation. However, as it is well known, this method does not guarantee the stability of the system, providing good results only for constant or slowly varying reference signals and in the absence of noise, which are unrealistic conditions. When the reference input varies with an appreciable rate or in presence of noise, eventually it could result in system instability. In this paper an alternative method is proposed that significantly improves the robustness of the system for varying inputs or in the presence of noise, as demonstrated by simulation.

Empirical analysis of traffic volume for the application of the options theory to highway concessions

*************************************************************************************** EL WCTR es un Congreso de reconocido prestigio internacional en el ámbito de la investigación del transporte que hasta el 2010 publicaba sus libros de abstracts con ISBN. Por ello consideramos que debería seguir teníendose en cuenta para los indicadores de calidad ******************************************************************************************* Investment projects in the field of transportation infrastructures have a high degree of uncertainty and require an important amount of resources. In highway concessions in particular, the calculation of the Net Present Value (NPV) of the project by means of the discount of cash flows, may lead to erroneous results when the project incorporates certain flexibility. In these cases, the theory of real options is an alternative tool for the valuation of concessions. When the variable that generates uncertainty (in our case, the traffic) follows a random walk (or Geometric Brownian Motion), we can calculate the value of the options embedded in the contract starting directly from the process followed by that variable. This procedure notably simplifies the calculation method. In order to test the hypothesis of the evolution of traffic as a Geometric Brownian Motion, we have used the available series of traffic in Spanish highways, and we have applied the Augmented Dickey-Fuller approach, which is the most widely used test for this kind of study. The main result of the analysis is that we cannot reject the hypothesis that traffic follows a Geometric Brownian Motion in the majority of both toll highways and free highways in Spain.

Multi-resolution model-based traffic sign detection and tracking

In this paper we propose an innovative approach to tackle the problem of traffic sign detection using a computer vision algorithm and taking into account real-time operation constraints, trying to establish intelligent strategies to simplify as much as possible the algorithm complexity and to speed up the process. Firstly, a set of candidates is generated according to a color segmentation stage, followed by a region analysis strategy, where spatial characteristic of previously detected objects are taken into account. Finally, temporal coherence is introduced by means of a tracking scheme, performed using a Kalman filter for each potential candidate. Taking into consideration time constraints, efficiency is achieved two-fold: on the one side, a multi-resolution strategy is adopted for segmentation, where global operation will be applied only to low-resolution images, increasing the resolution to the maximum only when a potential road sign is being tracked. On the other side, we take advantage of the expected spacing between traffic signs. Namely, the tracking of objects of interest allows to generate inhibition areas, which are those ones where no new traffic signs are expected to appear due to the existence of a TS in the neighborhood. The proposed solution has been tested with real sequences in both urban areas and highways, and proved to achieve higher computational efficiency, especially as a result of the multi-resolution approach.

Traffic sign detection and tracking using robust 3D analysis

In this paper we present an innovative technique to tackle the problem of automatic road sign detection and tracking using an on-board stereo camera. It involves a continuous 3D analysis of the road sign during the whole tracking process. Firstly, a color and appearance based model is applied to generate road sign candidates in both stereo images. A sparse disparity map between the left and right images is then created for each candidate by using contour-based and SURF-based matching in the far and short range, respectively. Once the map has been computed, the correspondences are back-projected to generate a cloud of 3D points, and the best-fit plane is computed through RANSAC, ensuring robustness to outliers. Temporal consistency is enforced by means of a Kalman filter, which exploits the intrinsic smoothness of the 3D camera motion in traffic environments. Additionally, the estimation of the plane allows to correct deformations due to perspective, thus easing further sign classification.

Efficient hybrid monocular-stereo approach to on-board, video-based traffic sign detection and tracking

In this paper we propose an innovative method for the automatic detection and tracking of road traffic signs using an onboard stereo camera. It involves a combination of monocular and stereo analysis strategies to increase the reliability of the detections such that it can boost the performance of any traffic sign recognition scheme. Firstly, an adaptive color and appearance based detection is applied at single camera level to generate a set of traffic sign hypotheses. In turn, stereo information allows for sparse 3D reconstruction of potential traffic signs through a SURF-based matching strategy. Namely, the plane that best fits the cloud of 3D points traced back from feature matches is estimated using a RANSAC based approach to improve robustness to outliers. Temporal consistency of the 3D information is ensured through a Kalman-based tracking stage. This also allows for the generation of a predicted 3D traffic sign model, which is in turn used to enhance the previously mentioned color-based detector through a feedback loop, thus improving detection accuracy. The proposed solution has been tested with real sequences under several illumination conditions and in both urban areas and highways, achieving very high detection rates in challenging environments, including rapid motion and significant perspective distortion

Homogeneization effects of variable speed limits.

Changing factors (mainly traffic intensity and weather conditions) affecting road conditions require a suitable optimal speed at any time. To solve this problem, variable speed limit systems (VSL) - as opposed to fixed limits - have been developed in recent decades. This term has included a number of speed management systems, most notably dynamic speed limits (DSL). In order to avoid the indiscriminate use of both terms in the literature, this paper proposes a simple classification and offers a review of some experiences, how their effects are evaluated and their results. This study also presents a key indicator which measures the speed homogeneity and a methodology to obtain the data based on floating cars and GPS technology applying it to a case study on a section of the M30 urban motorway in Madrid (Spain). It also presents the relation between this indicator and road performance and emissions values.

Agent-based modeling and simulation for the design of the future european Air Traffic Management system: the experience of CASSIOPEIA

The SESAR (Single European Sky ATM Research) program is an ambitious re-search and development initiative to design the future European air traffic man-agement (ATM) system. The study of the behavior of ATM systems using agent-based modeling and simulation tools can help the development of new methods to improve their performance. This paper presents an overview of existing agent-based approaches in air transportation (paying special attention to the challenges that exist for the design of future ATM systems) and, subsequently, describes a new agent-based approach that we proposed in the CASSIOPEIA project, which was developed according to the goals of the SESAR program. In our approach, we use agent models for different ATM stakeholders, and, in contrast to previous work, our solution models new collaborative decision processes for flow traffic management, it uses an intermediate level of abstraction (useful for simulations at larger scales), and was designed to be a practical tool (open and reusable) for the development of different ATM studies. It was successfully applied in three stud-ies related to the design of future ATM systems in Europe.