Aplicación de la teoría de redes complejas a procesos dinámicos en la sociedad

Podemos definir la sociedad como un sistema complejo que emerge de la cooperación y coordinación de billones de individuos y centenares de países. En este sentido no vivimos en una isla sino que estamos integrados en redes sociales que influyen en nuestro comportamiento. En esta tesis doctoral, presentamos un modelo analítico y una serie de estudios empíricos en los que analizamos distintos procesos sociales dinámicos desde una perspectiva de la teoría de redes complejas. En primer lugar, introducimos un modelo para explorar el impacto que las redes sociales en las que vivimos inmersos tienen en la actividad económica que transcurre sobre ellas, y mas concretamente en hasta qué punto la estructura de estas redes puede limitar la meritocracia de una sociedad. Como concepto contrario a meritocracia, en esta tesis, introducimos el término topocracia. Definimos un sistema como topocrático cuando la influencia o el poder y los ingresos de los individuos vienen principalmente determinados por la posición que ocupan en la red. Nuestro modelo es perfectamente meritocrático para redes completamente conectadas (todos los nodos están enlazados con el resto de nodos). Sin embargo nuestro modelo predice una transición hacia la topocracia a medida que disminuye la densidad de la red, siendo las redes poco densascomo las de la sociedad- topocráticas. En este modelo, los individuos por un lado producen y venden contenidos, pero por otro lado también distribuyen los contenidos producidos por otros individuos mediando entre comprador y vendedor. La producción y distribución de contenidos definen dos medios por los que los individuos reciben ingresos. El primero de ellos es meritocrático, ya que los individuos ingresan de acuerdo a lo que producen. Por el contrario el segundo es topocrático, ya que los individuos son compensados de acuerdo al número de cadenas mas cortas de la red que pasan a través de ellos. En esta tesis resolvemos el modelo computacional y analíticamente. Los resultados indican que un sistema es meritocrático solamente si la conectividad media de los individuos es mayor que una raíz del número de individuos que hay en el sistema. Por tanto, a la luz de nuestros resultados la estructura de la red social puede representar una limitación para la meritocracia de una sociedad. En la segunda parte de esta tesis se presentan una serie de estudios empíricos en los que se analizan datos extraídos de la red social Twitter para caracterizar y modelar el comportamiento humano. En particular, nos centramos en analizar conversaciones políticas, como las que tienen lugar durante campañas electorales. Nuestros resultados indican que la atención colectiva está distribuida de una forma muy heterogénea, con una minoría de cuentas extremadamente influyente. Además, la capacidad de los individuos para diseminar información en Twitter está limitada por la estructura y la posición que ocupan en la red de seguidores. Por tanto, de acuerdo a nuestras observaciones las redes sociales de Internet no posibilitan que la mayoría sea escuchada por la mayoría. De hecho, nuestros resultados implican que Twitter es topocrático, ya que únicamente una minoría de cuentas ubicadas en posiciones privilegiadas en la red de seguidores consiguen que sus mensajes se expandan por toda la red social. En conversaciones políticas, esta minoría de cuentas influyentes se compone principalmente de políticos y medios de comunicación. Los políticos son los mas mencionados ya que la gente les dirige y se refiere a ellos en sus tweets. Mientras que los medios de comunicación son las fuentes desde las que la gente propaga información. En un mundo en el que los datos personales quedan registrados y son cada día mas abundantes y precisos, los resultados del modelo presentado en esta tesis pueden ser usados para fomentar medidas que promuevan la meritocracia. Además, los resultados de los estudios empíricos sobre Twitter que se presentan en la segunda parte de esta tesis son de vital importancia para entender la nueva "sociedad digital" que emerge. En concreto hemos presentado resultados relevantes que caracterizan el comportamiento humano en Internet y que pueden ser usados para crear futuros modelos. Abstract Society can be defined as a complex system that emerges from the cooperation and coordination of billions of individuals and hundreds of countries. Thus, we do not live in social vacuum and the social networks in which we are embedded inevitably shapes our behavior. Here, we present an analytical model and several empirical studies in which we analyze dynamical social systems through a network science perspective. First, we introduce a model to explore how the structure of the social networks underlying society can limit the meritocracy of the economies. Conversely to meritocracy, in this work we introduce the term topocracy. We say that a system is topocratic if the compensation and power available to an individual is determined primarily by her position in a network. Our model is perfectly meritocratic for fully connected networks but becomes topocratic for sparse networks-like the ones in society. In the model, individuals produce and sell content, but also distribute the content produced by others when they belong to the shortest path connecting a buyer and a seller. The production and distribution of content defines two channels of compensation: a meritocratic channel, where individuals are compensated for the content they produce, and a topocratic channel, where individual compensation is based on the number of shortest paths that go through them in the network. We solve the model analytically and show that the distribution of payoffs is meritocratic only if the average degree of the nodes is larger than a root of the total number of nodes. Hence, in the light of our model, the sparsity and structure of networks represents a fundamental constraint to the meritocracy of societies. Next, we present several empirical studies that use data gathered from Twitter to analyze online human behavioral patterns. In particular, we focus on political conversations such as electoral campaigns. We found that the collective attention is highly heterogeneously distributed, as there is a minority of extremely influential accounts. In fact, the ability of individuals to propagate messages or ideas through the platform is constrained by the structure of the follower network underlying the social media and the position they occupy on it. Hence, although people have argued that social media can allow more voices to be heard, our results suggest that Twitter is highly topocratic, as only the minority of well positioned users are widely heard. This minority of influential accounts belong mostly to politicians and traditional media. Politicians tend to be the most mentioned, while media are the sources of information from which people propagate messages. We also propose a methodology to study and measure the emergence of political polarization from social interactions. To this end, we first propose a model to estimate opinions in which a minority of influential individuals propagate their opinions through a social network. The result of the model is an opinion probability density function. Next, we propose an index to quantify the extent to which the resulting distribution is polarized. Finally, we illustrate our methodology by applying it to Twitter data. In a world where personal data is increasingly available, the results of the analytical model introduced in this work can be used to enhance meritocracy and promote policies that help to build more meritocratic societies. Moreover, the results obtained in the latter part, where we have analyzed Twitter, are key to understand the new data-driven society that is emerging. In particular, we have presented relevant information that can be used to benchmark future models for online communication systems or can be used as empirical rules characterizing our online behavior.

State of the Art and Future Trends in Grid Codes Applicable to Isolated Electrical Systems

Isolated electrical systems lack electrical interconnection to other networks and are usually placed in geographically isolated areas—mainly islands or locations in developing countries. Until recently, only diesel generators were able to assure a safe and reliable supply in exchange for very high costs for fuel transportation and system operation. Transmission system operators (TSOs) are increasingly seeking to replace traditional energy models based on large groups of conventional generation units with mixed solutions where diesel groups are held as backup generation and important advantages are provided by renewable energy sources. The grid codes determine the technical requirements to be fulfilled by the generators connected in any electrical network, but regulations applied to isolated grids are more demanding. In technical literature it is rather easy to find and compare grid codes for interconnected electrical systems. However, the existing literature is incomplete and sparse regarding isolated grids. This paper aims to review the current state of isolated systems and grid codes applicable to them, specifying points of comparison and defining the guidelines to be followed by the upcoming regulations.

Vegetation and fire history since the last glacial maximum in an inland area of the western Mediterranean Basin (Northern Iberian Plateau, NW Spain)

We reconstructed vegetation responses to climate oscillations, fire and human activities since the last glacial maximum in inland NW Iberia, where previous paleoecological research is scarce. Extremely sparse and open vegetation composed of steppic grasslands and heathlands with scattered pioneer trees suggests very cold and dry conditions during the Oldest Dryas, unsuitable for tree survival in the surroundings of the study site. Slight woodland expansion during the Bolling/Allerod was interrupted by the Younger Dryas cooling. Pinewoods dominated for most of the early Holocene, when a marked increase in fire activity occurred. Deciduous trees expanded later reaching their maximum representation during the mid-Holocene. Enhanced fire activity and the presence of coprophilous fungi around 6400-6000 cal yr BP suggest an early human occupation around the site. However, extensive deforestation only started at 4500 calyrBP, when fire was used to clear the tree canopy. Final replacement of woodlands with heathlands, grasslands and cereal crops occurred from 2700 cal yr BP onwards due to land-use intensification. Our paleoecological record can help efforts aimed at restoring the natural vegetation by indicating which communities were dominant at the onset of heavy human impact, thus promoting the recovery of currently rare oak and alder stands.

State of the Art and Future Trends in Grid Codes Applicable to Isolated Electrical Systems

Electrical power systems are changing their traditional structure, which was based on a little number of large generating power plants placed at great distances from loads by new models that tend to split the big production nodes in many smaller ones. The set of small groups which are located close to consumers and provide safe and quality energy is called distributed generation (DG). The proximity of the sources to the loads reduces losses associated with transportation and increases overall system efficiency. DG also favors the inclusion of renewable energy sources in isolated electrical systems or remote microgrids, because they can be installed where the natural resource is located. In both cases, as weak grids unable to get help from other nearby networks, it is essential to ensure appropriate behavior of DG sources to guarantee power system safety and stability. The grid codes sets out the technical requirements to be fulfilled for the sources connected in these electrical networks. In technical literature it is rather easy to find and compare grid codes for interconnected electrical systems. However, the existing literature is incomplete and sparse regarding isolated electrical systems and this happens due to the difficulties inherent in the pursuit of codes. Some countries have developed their own legislation only for their island territory (as Spain or France), others apply the same set of rules as in mainland, another group of island countries have elaborated a complete grid code for all generating sources and some others lack specific regulation. This paper aims to make a complete review of the state of the art in grid codes applicable to isolated systems, setting the comparison between them and defining the guidelines predictably followed by the upcoming regulations in these particular systems.

Evolution over time of heavy vehicle volume in toll roads: A dynamic panel data to identify key explanatory variables in Spain

Improving the knowledge of demand evolution over time is a key aspect in the evaluation of transport policies and in forecasting future investment needs. It becomes even more critical for the case of toll roads, which in recent decades has become an increasingly common device to fund road projects. However, literature regarding demand elasticity estimates in toll roads is sparse and leaves some important aspects to be analyzed in greater detail. In particular, previous research on traffic analysis does not often disaggregate heavy vehicle demand from the total volume, so that the specific behavioral patternsof this traffic segment are not taken into account. Furthermore, GDP is the main socioeconomic variable most commonly chosen to explain road freight traffic growth over time. This paper seeks to determine the variables that better explain the evolution of heavy vehicle demand in toll roads over time. To that end, we present a dynamic panel data methodology aimed at identifying the key socioeconomic variables that explain the behavior of road freight traffic throughout the years. The results show that, despite the usual practice, GDP may not constitute a suitable explanatory variable for heavy vehicle demand. Rather, considering only the GDP of those sectors with a high impact on transport demand, such as construction or industry, leads to more consistent results. The methodology is applied to Spanish toll roads for the 1990?2011 period. This is an interesting case in the international context, as road freight demand has experienced an even greater reduction in Spain than elsewhere, since the beginning of the economic crisis in 2008.

Grouped sparsity algorithm for multichannel intracardiac ECG synchronization

In this paper, a new method is presented to ensure automatic synchronization of intracardiac ECG data, yielding a three-stage algorithm. We first compute a robust estimate of the derivative of the data to remove low-frequency perturbations. Then we provide a grouped-sparse representation of the data, by means of the Group LASSO, to ensure that all the electrical spikes are simultaneously detected. Finally, a post-processing step, based on a variance analysis, is performed to discard false alarms. Preliminary results on real data for sinus rhythm and atrial fibrillation show the potential of this approach.

Differential elimination by differential specialization of Sylvester style matrices

Differential resultant formulas are defined, for a system $\cP$ of $n$ ordinary Laurent differential polynomials in $n-1$ differential variables. These are determinants of coefficient matrices of an extended system of polynomials obtained from $\cP$ through derivations and multiplications by Laurent monomials. To start, through derivations, a system $\ps(\cP)$ of $L$ polynomials in $L-1$ algebraic variables is obtained, which is non sparse in the order of derivation. This enables the use of existing formulas for the computation of algebraic resultants, of the multivariate sparse algebraic polynomials in $\ps(\cP)$, to obtain polynomials in the differential elimination ideal generated by $\cP$. The formulas obtained are multiples of the sparse differential resultant defined by Li, Yuan and Gao, and provide order and degree bounds in terms of mixed volumes in the generic case.

Onomástica, ecología y territorio. La toponimia de La Rioja como indicador biogeográfico y de la dinámica del paisaje forestal

Se presenta un trabajo de investigación toponímica en La Rioja con enfoque geobotánico. La premisa de partida es que la toponimia relacionada con especies y agrupaciones vegetales, productos forestales y usos del suelo proporciona información valiosa sobre la corología y la dinámica de la vegetación al ser clasificada y analizada con criterios biogeográficos y ecológicos. Se ha elegido la región riojana como zona piloto, al concurrir distintos tipos fisonómicos de vegetación y un conjunto muy diverso de comunidades vegetales representativas del paisaje peninsular. Se añade una larga historia de usos agrícolas en la llanura del Ebro que contrasta con la predominante actividad forestal en las zonas montañosas, en particular la potenciación de los pastos para ganadería trashumante. La Rioja tiene carácter de encrucijada no sólo fitocorológica: es también tierra de fronteras políticas y transiciones lingüísticas. En el léxico y la toponimia conviven variantes puras del castellano, rasgos del romance navarro-aragonés, elementos genuinos de una variante medieval riojana, palabras mozárabes y un numeroso y significativo elenco de topónimos de origen vasco. El trabajo se inicia con unas consideraciones epistemológicas. Se establece un planteamiento de la Toponimia como ciencia interdisciplinar, la etiología de los nombres geográficos, así como su valor apelativo descriptor de los atributos del paisaje. Se enumeran los condicionantes metodológicos de la investigación toponímica y se desarrolla una reflexión sobre las particularidades de la toponimia geobotánica. Se dedica un epígrafe a reseñar estudios precedentes de toponimia botánica y ecológica y el estado actual de conocimientos sobre la toponimia de La Rioja. La delimitación superficial de los parajes designados por los nombres geográficos es clave para un análisis orientado a detectar la correspondencia entre los elementos aludidos por el topónimo y las especies y comunidades vegetales. Las áreas de distribución y presencia, así como las transformaciones del paisaje, quedan definidas en superficies acotadas territorialmente. La metodología seguida se basa en la revisión exhaustiva de fuentes toponímicas ya existentes; destacadamente, los datos procedentes de la cartografía del Castro de Rústica, adscritos a polígonos con dimensión espacial. Las denominaciones de las parcelas catastrales se han complementado con los nombres geográficos del Diccionario de Toponimia Actual de La Rioja (DTALR) (González Blanco, 1987), el nomenclátor NomGeo del IGN, y algunas recopilaciones toponímicas municipales. De la base de datos conjunta se han seleccionado los topónimos con significado geobotánico. Se propone una taxonomía de grupos semánticos basada en categorías de estructura (arbolado, matorral, cubiertas herbáceas y áreas de vegetación escasa o rala) y en la adscripción a tipos de vegetación potencialmente dominantes, ordenados según una escala de higrofilia decreciente). También se reseñan topónimos referentes a usos y aprovechamientos en el medio rural: dehesas, ganadería, productos forestales y algunos cultivos agrícolas. El trabajo reúne en un repertorio sistemático los datos toponímicos, acopiados por comarcas y términos municipales. Se incluye la relación de nombres geográficos encontrados por campos nocionales y se comentan los nombres vernáculos que les han dado origen y su etimología. Quedan señalados los topónimos georreferenciados y asignados a entidades superficiales en la cartografía digital catastral, que se ha superpuesto a mapas forestales a escalas 1:200.000 y 1:50.000, en cuya elaboración participamos. El análisis ha permitido definir “topónimo externo” como el recinto catastral en que la especie o agrupación aludida no tiene presencia en la vegetación actual, al menos como dominante. Los topónimos externos más significativos de cada grupo han sido analizados describiendo la cubierta vegetal actual correspondiente, lo que permite interpretar, junto con las características fisiográficas del paraje, las causas posibles de ausencia del elemento aludido, teniendo en cuenta criterios generales de mesología, de dinámica de la vegetación y de la historia de la acción humana. El trabajo se cierra con un capítulo de conclusiones generales, conceptuales y metodológicas, así como una relación de líneas de profundización de la investigación que quedan apuntadas. Se completa con una relación de fuentes y referencias bibliográficas fundamentales. ABSTRACT This paper presents a study of the toponymy of La Rioja with a specific focus on place names reflecting the region’s geobotany. Its underlying premise is that the toponymy associated with plant species and communities, forest products and land uses can provide valuable information about the chorology and vegetation dynamics when classified and analysed using biogeographical and ecological criteria. La Rioja has been chosen for this pilot study because it concentrates vegetation types of distinct physiognomy and a highly diverse set of plant communities that can be considered representative of the vegetation of the peninsula’s landscapes. This combines with a long history of different agricultural uses on the Ebro plain that contrast with the predominance of forestry activity in the more mountainous areas, in particular the promotion of pasture for livestock transhumance. Indeed, La Rioja is not only a crossroads in terms of its phytochorology, but it is also a land of political boundaries and language transitions. Coexisting in its lexicon and toponymy, we find pure Castilian variants, features from the Romance language of Navarro-Aragonese, genuine elements of the medieval variant of the Riojan dialect, words of Mozarabic and a large and significant list of place names of Basque origin. The paper begins by outlining a number of epistemological considerations and establishes an interdisciplinary approach to toponymy, the aetiology of geographical names, and their value in the descriptive naming of the features of a landscape. It continues by enumerating the methodological determinants of toponymic research and reflects on the specific characteristics of geobotanical toponyms. The next section is dedicated to examining previous studies of botanical and ecological place names and providing a state-of-the-art review of the toponymy of La Rioja. Delimiting the sites designated by the geographical names is essential to any analysis designed to detect the correspondence between the elements alluded to by the toponyms and plant species and communities. These areas of distribution and presence, as well as the landscape changes, are defined in terms of spatially delimited surface areas. The methodology adopted involves an exhaustive review of existing toponymic sources; in particular, data obtained from the maps of the Rustic Cadastre, assigned to spatial polygons. The names of these cadastral parcels are complemented by the geographical names taken from the Diccionario de Toponimia Actual de La Rioja (DTALR) (González Blanco, 1987); the gazetteer – NomGeo, published by Spain’s Instituto Geográfico Nacional; and, various municipal list of toponyms. Place names with a geobotanical meaning were then selected from this joint database. The paper proposes a taxonomy of semantic groups based on structural categories (namely wooded areas, brushland, grassy areas and areas of scanty or sparse vegetation) and assignment to the potentially dominant type of vegetation (ordered on a scale of decreasing hygrophilic trends). Place names referring to land uses and practices in rural areas – including, pasture, livestock, forest products and some agricultural crops – are also described. The study produces a systematic list of toponyms ordered by counties and municipalities. The geographical names are organised by notional fields and the vernacular names that have given rise to them and their etymology are discussed. The toponyms are georeferenced and assigned to surface elements on the digital cadastral map, superimposed on forest maps at scales of 1:200,000 and 1:50,000, in the production of which the authors participated. The analysis has allowed us to define “external toponyms” as those cadastral parcels in which the plant species or group alluded to is no longer present in the vegetation, at least as the dominant type. The most significant external toponyms in each group have been analysed by describing the corresponding, present-day vegetation cover, which allows us to interpret, along with the physiographic features of the site, the possible causes of the absence of the aforementioned element, bearing in mind general criteria of mesology, vegetation dynamics and the history of human action. The paper finishes by offering a number of general conceptual and methodological conclusions, and a list of areas that future research can usefully examine. The study is supplemented with a list of sources and key references.