Bayesian model selection of structural explanatory models: Application to road accident data

Using the Bayesian approach as the model selection criteria, the main purpose in this study is to establish a practical road accident model that can provide a better interpretation and prediction performance. For this purpose we are using a structural explanatory model with autoregressive error term. The model estimation is carried out through Bayesian inference and the best model is selected based on the goodness of fit measures. To cross validate the model estimation further prediction analysis were done. As the road safety measures the number of fatal accidents in Spain, during 2000-2011 were employed. The results of the variable selection process show that the factors explaining fatal road accidents are mainly exposure, economic factors, and surveillance and legislative measures. The model selection shows that the impact of economic factors on fatal accidents during the period under study has been higher compared to surveillance and legislative measures.

Enhancing regression models for complex systems using evolutionary techniques for feature engineering

This work proposes an automatic methodology for modeling complex systems. Our methodology is based on the combination of Grammatical Evolution and classical regression to obtain an optimal set of features that take part of a linear and convex model. This technique provides both Feature Engineering and Symbolic Regression in order to infer accurate models with no effort or designer's expertise requirements. As advanced Cloud services are becoming mainstream, the contribution of data centers in the overall power consumption of modern cities is growing dramatically. These facilities consume from 10 to 100 times more power per square foot than typical office buildings. Modeling the power consumption for these infrastructures is crucial to anticipate the effects of aggressive optimization policies, but accurate and fast power modeling is a complex challenge for high-end servers not yet satisfied by analytical approaches. For this case study, our methodology minimizes error in power prediction. This work has been tested using real Cloud applications resulting on an average error in power estimation of 3.98%. Our work improves the possibilities of deriving Cloud energy efficient policies in Cloud data centers being applicable to other computing environments with similar characteristics.

Aeroacoustic noise prediction in high speed trains due to attached and detached flow

This paper aims to set out the influence of the flow field around high speed trains in open field. To achieve this parametric analysis of the sound pressure inside the train was performed. Three vibroacoustic models of a characteristic train section are used to predict the noise inside the train in open field by using finite element method FEM, boundary element method (BEM) and statistical energy analysis (SEA) depending on the frequency range of analysis. The turbulent boundary layer excitation is implemented as the only airborne noise source, in order to focus on the study of the attached and detached flow in the surface of the train. The power spectral densities of the pressure fluctuation in the train surface proposed by [Cockburn and Roberson 1974, Rennison et al. 2009] are applied on the exterior surface of the structural subsystems in the vibroacoustic models. An increase in the sound pressure level up to10 dB can be appreciated due to the detachment of the flow around the train. These results highlight the importance to determine the detached regions prediction, making critical the airborne noise due to turbulent boundary layer.

System failure prediction through rare-events elastic-net logistic regression

Predicting failures in a distributed system based on previous events through logistic regression is a standard approach in literature. This technique is not reliable, though, in two situations: in the prediction of rare events, which do not appear in enough proportion for the algorithm to capture, and in environments where there are too many variables, as logistic regression tends to overfit on this situations; while manually selecting a subset of variables to create the model is error- prone. On this paper, we solve an industrial research case that presented this situation with a combination of elastic net logistic regression, a method that allows us to automatically select useful variables, a process of cross-validation on top of it and the application of a rare events prediction technique to reduce computation time. This process provides two layers of cross- validation that automatically obtain the optimal model complexity and the optimal mode l parameters values, while ensuring even rare events will be correctly predicted with a low amount of training instances. We tested this method against real industrial data, obtaining a total of 60 out of 80 possible models with a 90% average model accuracy.

Poisson dynamic models. An application to interurban accidents in Spain

In this study we apply count data models to four integer–valued time series related to accidentality in Spanish roads applying both the frequentist and Bayesian approaches. The time series are: number of fatalities, number of fatal accidents, number of killed or seriously injured (KSI) and number of accidents with KSI. The model structure is Poisson regression with first order autoregressive errors. The purpose of the paper is first to sort out the explanatory variables by relevance and second to carry out a prediction exercise for validation.

Advanced background modeling with RGB-D sensors through classifiers combination and inter-frame foreground prediction

An innovative background modeling technique that is able to accurately segment foreground regions in RGB-D imagery (RGB plus depth) has been presented in this paper. The technique is based on a Bayesian framework that efficiently fuses different sources of information to segment the foreground. In particular, the final segmentation is obtained by considering a prediction of the foreground regions, carried out by a novel Bayesian Network with a depth-based dynamic model, and, by considering two independent depth and color-based mixture of Gaussians background models. The efficient Bayesian combination of all these data reduces the noise and uncertainties introduced by the color and depth features and the corresponding models. As a result, more compact segmentations, and refined foreground object silhouettes are obtained. Experimental results with different databases suggest that the proposed technique outperforms existing state-of-the-art algorithms.

Autonomous classification models in ubiquitous environments

Stream-mining approach is defined as a set of cutting-edge techniques designed to process streams of data in real time, in order to extract knowledge. In the particular case of classification, stream-mining has to adapt its behaviour to the volatile underlying data distributions, what has been called concept drift. Moreover, it is important to note that concept drift may lead to situations where predictive models become invalid and have therefore to be updated to represent the actual concepts that data poses. In this context, there is a specific type of concept drift, known as recurrent concept drift, where the concepts represented by data have already appeared in the past. In those cases the learning process could be saved or at least minimized by applying a previously trained model. This could be extremely useful in ubiquitous environments that are characterized by the existence of resource constrained devices. To deal with the aforementioned scenario, meta-models can be used in the process of enhancing the drift detection mechanisms used by data stream algorithms, by representing and predicting when the change will occur. There are some real-world situations where a concept reappears, as in the case of intrusion detection systems (IDS), where the same incidents or an adaptation of them usually reappear over time. In these environments the early prediction of drift by means of a better knowledge of past models can help to anticipate to the change, thus improving efficiency of the model regarding the training instances needed. By means of using meta-models as a recurrent drift detection mechanism, the ability to share concepts representations among different data mining processes is open. That kind of exchanges could improve the accuracy of the resultant local model as such model may benefit from patterns similar to the local concept that were observed in other scenarios, but not yet locally. This would also improve the efficiency of training instances used during the classification process, as long as the exchange of models would aid in the application of already trained recurrent models, that have been previously seen by any of the collaborative devices. Which it is to say that the scope of recurrence detection and representation is broaden. In fact the detection, representation and exchange of concept drift patterns would be extremely useful for the law enforcement activities fighting against cyber crime. Being the information exchange one of the main pillars of cooperation, national units would benefit from the experience and knowledge gained by third parties. Moreover, in the specific scope of critical infrastructures protection it is crucial to count with information exchange mechanisms, both from a strategical and technical scope. The exchange of concept drift detection schemes in cyber security environments would aid in the process of preventing, detecting and effectively responding to threads in cyber space. Furthermore, as a complement of meta-models, a mechanism to assess the similarity between classification models is also needed when dealing with recurrent concepts. In this context, when reusing a previously trained model a rough comparison between concepts is usually made, applying boolean logic. The introduction of fuzzy logic comparisons between models could lead to a better efficient reuse of previously seen concepts, by applying not just equal models, but also similar ones. This work faces the aforementioned open issues by means of: the MMPRec system, that integrates a meta-model mechanism and a fuzzy similarity function; a collaborative environment to share meta-models between different devices; a recurrent drift generator that allows to test the usefulness of recurrent drift systems, as it is the case of MMPRec. Moreover, this thesis presents an experimental validation of the proposed contributions using synthetic and real datasets.

Building intuition of iron evolution during solar cell processing through analysis of different process models

An important aspect of Process Simulators for photovoltaics is prediction of defect evolution during device fabrication. Over the last twenty years, these tools have accelerated process optimization, and several Process Simulators for iron, a ubiquitous and deleterious impurity in silicon, have been developed. The diversity of these tools can make it difficult to build intuition about the physics governing iron behavior during processing. Thus, in one unified software environment and using self-consistent terminology, we combine and describe three of these Simulators. We vary structural defect distribution and iron precipitation equations to create eight distinct Models, which we then use to simulate different stages of processing. We find that the structural defect distribution influences the final interstitial iron concentration ([Fe-i]) more strongly than the iron precipitation equations. We identify two regimes of iron behavior: (1) diffusivity-limited, in which iron evolution is kinetically limited and bulk [Fe-i] predictions can vary by an order of magnitude or more, and (2) solubility-limited, in which iron evolution is near thermodynamic equilibrium and the Models yield similar results. This rigorous analysis provides new intuition that can inform Process Simulation, material, and process development, and it enables scientists and engineers to choose an appropriate level of Model complexity based on wafer type and quality, processing conditions, and available computation time.