Mixed models for short-run forecasting of electricity prices: Application for the Spanish market

Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become necessary for power generation unit schedule, since it is the basis of every profit maximization strategy. In this article a new and very easy method to compute accurate forecasts for electricity prices using mixed models is proposed. The main idea is to develop an efficient tool for one-step-ahead forecasting in the future, combining several prediction methods for which forecasting performance has been checked and compared for a span of several years. Also as a novelty, the 24 hourly time series has been modelled separately, instead of the complete time series of the prices. This allows one to take advantage of the homogeneity of these 24 time series. The purpose of this paper is to select the model that leads to smaller prediction errors and to obtain the appropriate length of time to use for forecasting. These results have been obtained by means of a computational experiment. A mixed model which combines the advantages of the two new models discussed is proposed. Some numerical results for the Spanish market are shown, but this new methodology can be applied to other electricity markets as well

A review of electrodynamic tethers for space applications

Space applications of electrodynamic tethers, and basic issues and constraints on their operation are reviewed. The status of the bare-tether solution to the problem of effective electron collection from a rarefied magnetized plasma is revisited. Basic modes of tether operation are analyzed; design parameters and parametric domains where a bare electrodynamic tether is most efficient in deorbiting, rebooking, or power generation, are determined. Use of bare tethers for Radiation Belt Remediation and generation of electron beams for ionospheric research is considered. Teiher heating, arcing, and bowing or breaking, as well deployment strategies are discussed.

A review of electrodynamic tethers for science applications

A bare electrodynamic tether (EDT) is a conductive thin wire or tape tens of kilometres long, which is kept taut in space by gravity gradient or spinning, and is left bare of insulation to collect (and carry) current as a cylindrical Langmuir probe in an ambient magnetized plasma. An EDT is a probe in mesothermal flow at highly positive (or negative) bias, with a large or extremely large 2D sheath, which may show effects from the magnetic self-field of its current and have electrons adiabatically trapped in its ram front. Beyond technical applications ranging from propellantless propulsion to power generation in orbit, EDTs allow broad scientific uses such as generating electron beams and artificial auroras; exciting Alfven waves and whistlers; odifying the radiation belts; and exploring interplanetary space and the Jovian magnetosphere. Asymptotic analysis, numerical simulations, laboratory tests, and planned missions on EDTs are reviewed

Integración arquitectónica y constructiva de sistemas fotovoltaicos de tecnología de lámina delgada en relación con la disipación térmica y almacenamiento de calor

Esta tesis doctoral contribuye al análisis y desarrollo de nuevos elementos constructivos que integran sistemas de generación eléctrica a través de células fotovoltaicas (FV); particularmente, basados en tecnología FV de lámina delgada. Para ello se estudia el proceso de la integración arquitectónica de éstos elementos (conocido internacionalmente como “Building Integrated Photovoltaic – BIPV”) mediante diferentes metodologías. Se inicia con el estudio de los elementos fotovoltaicos existentes y continúa con los materiales que conforman actualmente las pieles de los edificios y su posible adaptación a las diferentes tecnologías. Posteriormente, se propone una estrategia de integración de los elementos FV en los materiales constructivos. En ésta se considera la doble función de los elementos BIPV, eléctrica y arquitectónica, y en especial se plantea el estudio de la integración de elementos de disipación térmica y almacenamiento de calor mediante los materiales de cambio de fase (“Phase Change Materials – PCM”), todo esto con el objeto de favorecer el acondicionamiento térmico pasivo a través del elemento BIPV. Para validar dicha estrategia, se desarrolla una metodología experimental que consiste en el diseño y desarrollo de un prototipo denominado elemento BIPV/TF – PCM, así como un método de medida y caracterización en condiciones de laboratorio. Entre los logros alcanzados, destaca la multifuncionalidad de los elementos BIPV, el aprovechamiento de la energía residual del elemento, la reducción de los excedentes térmicos que puedan modificar el balance térmico de la envolvente del edificio, y las mejoras conseguidas en la producción eléctrica de los módulos fotovoltaicos por reducción de temperatura, lo que hará más sostenible la solución BIPV. Finalmente, como resultado del análisis teórico y experimental, esta tesis contribuye significativamente al estudio práctico de la adaptabilidad de los elementos BIPV en el entorno urbano por medio de una metodología que se basa en el desarrollo y puesta en marcha de una herramienta informática, que sirve tanto a ingenieros como arquitectos para verificar la calidad de la integración arquitectónica y calidad eléctrica de los elementos FV, antes, durante y después de la ejecución de un proyecto constructivo. ABSTRACT This Doctoral Thesis contributes to the analysis and development of new building elements that integrate power generation systems using photovoltaic solar cells (PV), particularly based on thin-film PV technology. For this propose, the architectural integration process is studied (concept known as "Building Integrated Photovoltaic - BIPV") by means of different methodologies. It begins with the study of existing PV elements and materials that are currently part of the building skins and the possible adaptation to different technologies. Subsequently, an integration strategy of PV elements in building materials is proposed. Double function of BIPV elements is considered, electrical and architectural, especially the heat dissipation and heat storage elements are studied, particularly the use Phase Change Materials– PCM in order to favor the thermal conditioning of buildings by means of the BIPV elements. For this propose, an experimental methodology is implemented, which consist of the design and develop of a prototype "BIPV/TF- PCM element" and measurement method (indoor laboratory conditions) in order to validate this strategy. Among the most important achievements obtained of this develop and results analysis includes, in particular, the multifunctionality of BIPV elements, the efficient use of the residual energy of the element, reduction of the excess heat that it can change the heat balance of the building envelope and improvements in electricity production of PV modules by reducing the temperature, are some benefits achieved that make the BIPV element will be more sustainable. Finally, as a result of theoretical and experimental analysis, this thesis contributes significantly to the practical study of the adaptability of BIPV elements in the urban environment by means of a novel methodology based on the development and implementation by computer software of a useful tool which serves as both engineers and architects to verify the quality of architectural integration and electrical performance of PV elements before, during, and after execution of a building projects.

Energía solar de concentración: estudio y análisis económico, comparativa con la energía solar fotovoltaica y mejoras tecnológicas

Este trabajo de fin de grado trata sobre el estudio de la energía solar de concentración en todos sus aspectos. Se han analizado sus tecnologías, así como posibles innovaciones que se puedan producir en los próximos años. También se va ha llevado a cabo un estudio de los costes actuales que conlleva el uso de este tipo de generación de energía, así como un análisis de las reducciones que pueden experimentar estos costes. Para poder realizar una comparación posterior con la energía solar fotovoltaica se ha escrito un capítulo dedicado exclusivamente a esta tecnología para conocer cuál es el estado actual. Además se ha realizado un análisis DAFO de los mercados que a priori puedan parecer más beneficiosos y que cuenten con un mayor potencial para el desarrollo de esta tecnología. A modo de conclusión para exponer la comparativa entre esta tecnología y la energía solar fotovoltaica se ha desarrollado un análisis de la viabilidad económica de dos plantas de estas tecnologías para comprobar en qué escenarios resulta más provechosa cada una de ellas. Al final se incluyen unas conclusiones extraídas del desarrollo del trabajo. Abstract This project concerns a study about every aspect about the concentrated solar power. Each type of technology has been analyzed as well as the possible innovations that may occur in the future. Also, the theme regarding the costs of this kind of power generation and an analysis dealing with the potential cost reduction that it may experience has been carried out. Then, in anticipation to do a comparative with the photovoltaic solar power, a whole chapter has been dedicated to this technology, to know what its actual state is. In addition, a SWOT analysis has also been carried out about the countries that at first sight might be a good option to develop the CSP. To conclude and to expose the comparative between these two technologies, a study about the economic viability of two power plants to know under what circumstances are each of them more profitable has been made. At the end some conclusions extracted from the development of this work have been included.

Costes y opciones técnicas para la implantación de las próximas tecnologías de generación eléctrica sostenible

En este proyecto hemos realizado un análisis sobre la sostenibilidad de las tecnologías de generación más representativas desde un punto de vista sostenible. El objetivo de este proyecto es valorar cuantitativamente la sostenibilidad utilizando para ello los tres pilares de la sostenibilidad, para ello nos hemos apoyado en estudios sobre impactos medioambientales, seguridad en el suministro y costes de generación. Todo esto nos ha llevado a la conclusión de que aunque no existe una tecnología que satisfaga todas las necesidades, las nuevas tecnologías de generación, como las renovables, ganan en competitividad si añadimos un punto de vista sostenible. ABSTRACT In this paper, we have done an analysis about the sustainability of the power generation technologies most representative form a sustainable point of view. The objective of this paper is to evaluate quantitatively the sustainability using for this the three pillars of sustainability, for this we have relied on studies about environmental impacts, security supply and generation costs. All this led us to the conclusion that although there is no technology that satisfies all the necessities, the new generation technologies, such as the renewable, gains in competitiveness if we add a sustainable point of view.

Integrated plant monitoring to improve plant operation strategy and results

The more and more demanding conditions in the power generation sector requires to apply all the available technologies to optimize processes and reduce costs. An integrated asset management strategy, combining technical analysis and operation and maintenance management can help to improve plant performance, flexibility and reliability. In order to deploy such a model it is necessary to combine plant data and specific equipment condition information, with different systems devoted to analyze performance and equipment condition, and take advantage of the results to support operation and maintenance decisions. This model that has been dealt in certain detail for electricity transmission and distribution networks, is not yet broadly extended in the power generation sector, as proposed in this study for the case of a combined power plant. Its application would turn in direct benefit for the operation and maintenance and for the interaction to the energy market

Night time performance of a storage integrated solar thermophotovoltaic (SISTPV) system

Energy storage at low maintenance cost is one of the key challenges for generating electricity from the solar energy. This paper presents the theoretical analysis (verified by CFD) of the night time performance of a recently proposed conceptual system that integrates thermal storage (via phase change materials) and thermophotovoltaics for power generation. These storage integrated solar thermophotovoltaic (SISTPV) systems are attractive owing to their simple design (no moving parts) and modularity compared to conventional Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies. Importantly, the ability of high temperature operation of these systems allows the use of silicon (melting point of 1680 K) as the phase change material (PCM). Silicon's very high latent heat of fusion of 1800 kJ/kg and low cost ($1.70/kg), makes it an ideal heat storage medium enabling for an extremely high storage energy density and low weight modular systems. In this paper, the night time operation of the SISTPV system optimised for steady state is analysed. The results indicate that for any given PCM length, a combination of small taper ratio and large inlet hole-to-absorber area ratio are essential to increase the operation time and the average power produced during the night time. Additionally, the overall results show that there is a trade-off between running time and the average power produced during the night time. Average night time power densities as high as 30 W/cm(2) are possible if the system is designed with a small PCM length (10 cm) to operate just a few hours after sun-set, but running times longer than 72 h (3 days) are possible for larger lengths (50 cm) at the expense of a lower average power density of about 14 W/cm(2). In both cases the steady state system efficiency has been predicted to be about 30%. This makes SISTPV systems to be a versatile solution that can be adapted for operation in a broad range of locations with different climate conditions, even being used off-grid and in space applications.

Recubrimientos autolubricantes cuasicristalinos tipo composite depositados mediante proyección térmica para aplicaciones espaciales y de alta temperatura

Los recubrimientos lubricantes sólidos son requeridos para reducir la fricción y prevenir el desgaste en componentes que operan a altas temperaturas o en vacío (vehículos espaciales, industria química, motores diésel, turbinas aeronáuticas y de generación de energía…). Los lubricantes líquidos pierden sus características cuando las condiciones de presión, temperatura o ambientales son severas (oxidación, inestabilidad térmica, volatilidad,…), por ejemplo los aceites minerales convencionales se descomponen a temperaturas próximas a 200 ºC. Por tanto, la única manera de poder conseguir una adecuada lubricación a temperaturas extremas es por medio de sólidos, que cada vez más, se aplican en forma de recubrimientos. Estos recubrimientos podrían ser empleados en componentes de vehículos espaciales reutilizables, donde se pueden alcanzar, en la reentrada en la atmósfera, temperaturas de 700 ºC (bisagras, rodamientos, articulaciones y zonas de sellado en las superficies de control, y rodamientos de las turbobombas y las cajas de engranajes). Dichos recubrimientos también deberían ser capaces de proporcionar una lubricación efectiva a bajas temperaturas para las operaciones en tierra, para las operaciones de arranque en frío, incluso en el espacio. El conjunto de requisitos que tendrían que satisfacer las capas tribológicas relacionadas con estas condiciones extremas es muy diverso, lo que hace que el concepto de capas tipo composite (aquéllas constituidas por varios componentes) sea, en principio, muy adecuado para estas aplicaciones. Recubrimientos composite proyectados térmicamente constituidos por una matriz dura y conteniendo lubricantes sólidos pueden ser una buena solución desde el punto de vista tribológico. El “Lewis Research Centre” de la NASA ha estado desarrollando recubrimientos autolubricantes tipo composite, constituidos por la combinación de materiales duros como el carburo de cromo, junto con lubricantes sólidos como plata o la eutéctica de fluoruros de calcio y bario, en una matriz de NiCr, para su uso en aplicaciones terrestres a alta temperatura. Estos recubrimientos han sido aplicados mediante proyección térmica, siendo denominados como series PS100, PS200, PS300 y PS400, reduciendo de forma significativa el coeficiente de fricción y mejorando la resistencia al desgaste en un amplio margen de temperaturas. Otra nueva familia de materiales con comportamiento tribológico prometedor son las aleaciones cuasicristalinas (QC). Presentan características muy atractivas: alta dureza, baja fricción, alto límite elástico de compresión... Son muy frágiles como materiales másicos, por lo que se intentan aplicar en forma de recubrimientos. Se pueden depositar mediante proyección térmica. Algunos de estos materiales cuasicristalinos, como AlCoFeCr, poseen coeficientes de dilatación próximos al de los materiales metálicos, alta estabilidad térmica, baja conductividad térmica y una elevada resistencia a la oxidación y a la corrosión en caliente. En esta tesis se han desarrollado recubrimientos tipo composite conteniendo cuasicristales como componente antidesgaste, NiCr como componente tenaz, y Ag y la eutéctica de BaF2-CaF2, como lubricantes sólidos. Estos recubrimientos han sido depositados con diferentes composiciones (denominadas TH100, TH103, TH200, TH400, TH600…) mediante distintos procesos de proyección térmica: plasma en aire (PS), plasma en baja presión (LPPS) y combustión a alta velocidad (HVOF). Los recubrimientos se han generado sobre el sustrato X-750, una superaleación base níquel, endurecible por precipitación, con muy buena resistencia mecánica y a la oxidación hasta temperaturas de 870 ºC y, además, es empleada en aplicaciones aeroespaciales e industriales. Los recubrimientos han sido caracterizados microestructuralmente en INTA (Instituto Nacional de Técnica Aeroespacial), mediante SEM-EDS (Scanning Electronic Microscopy-Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy) y XRD (X-Ray Diffraction), y tribológicamente mediante medidas de microdureza y ensayos en tribómetro POD (Pin On Disc) para determinar los coeficientes de fricción y de desgaste. Los recubrimientos han sido ensayados tribológicamente a alta temperatura en INTA y en vacío en AMTTARC (Aerospace and Space Materials Technology Testhouse – Austrian Research Centres), en Seibersdorf (Austria). Se ha estudiado la influencia de la carga normal aplicada, la velocidad lineal y el material del pin. De entre las diferentes series de recubrimientos cuasicristalinos tipo composite desarrolladas, dos de ellas, TH100 y TH103 han presentado una excelente calidad microestructural (baja porosidad, distribución uniforme de fases…) y se han mostrado como excelentes recubrimientos antidesgaste. Sin embargo, estas capas presentan un pobre comportamiento como autolubricantes a temperatura ambiente, aunque mejoran mucho a alta temperatura o en vacío. Los resultados del trabajo presentado en esta tesis han proporcionado nuevo conocimiento respecto al comportamiento tribológico de recubrimientos autolubricantes cuasicristalinos tipo composite depositados por proyección térmica. Sin embargo, dichos resultados, aunque son muy prometedores, no han puesto de manifiesto el adecuado comportamiento autolubricante que se pretendía y, además, como ocurre en cualquier trabajo de investigación, durante el desarrollo del mismo siempre aparecen nuevas dudas por resolver. Se proponen nuevas líneas de trabajo futuro que complementen los resultados obtenidos y que puedan encaminar hacia la obtención de un recubrimiento que mejore su comportamiento autolubricante. ABSTRACT Solid lubricant coatings are required to reduce friction and prevent wear in components that operate at high temperatures or under vacuum (space vehicles, chemical industry, diesel engines, power generation turbines and aeronautical turbines, for instance). In these cases neither greases nor liquid lubricants can be employed and the only practicable approach to lubrication in such conditions is by means of solids. These are increasingly applied in the form of coatings which should exhibit low shear strength, whilst maintaining their chemical stability at extremes temperatures and in the space environment. In the space field, these coatings would be employed in re-usable space plane applications, such as elevon hinges, where temperatures of 700 ºC are reached during re-entry into the Earth’s atmosphere. These coatings should also be capable of providing effective lubrication at lower temperatures since “cold start” operation may be necessary, even in the space environment. The diverse and sometimes conflictive requirements in high temperature and space-related tribological coatings make the concept of composite coatings highly suitable for these applications. Thermal-sprayed composites containing solid lubricants in a hard matrix perform well tribologically. NASA‘s Lewis Research Centre had developed self-lubricating composite coatings for terrestrial use, comprising hard materials like chromium carbide as well as solid lubricant additives such as silver and BaF2-CaF2 eutectic on a Ni-Cr matrix. These coatings series, named PS100, PS200, PS300 and PS400, are applied by thermal spray and significantly reduce friction coefficients, improving wear resistance over a wide temperature range. Quasicrystalline alloys (QC) constitute a new family of materials with promising tribological behaviour. Some QC materials exhibit a combination of adequate antifriction properties: low friction coefficient, high hardness and high yield strength under compression, and can be easily produced as coatings on top of metallic and non-metallic materials. Among these QC alloys, AlCoFeCr has high hardness (700 HV0.1), a thermal expansion coefficient close to that of metals, high thermal stability, low thermal conductivity and good oxidation and hot corrosion resistance. However most QC materials have the disadvantage of being very brittle. In order to take advantage of the excellent tribological properties of QCs, thick composite lubricant coatings were prepared containing them as the hard phase for wear resistance, Ag and BaF2-CaF2 eutectic as lubricating materials and NiCr as the tough component. These coatings were deposited in different composition mixtures (named TH100, TH103, TH200, TH400, TH600…) by different thermal spray processes: air plasma spray (PS), low pressure plasma spray (LPPS) and high velocity oxy-fuel (HVOF), on X-750 substrates. X-750 is an age-hardenable nickel-base superalloy with very good strength and a good resistance to oxidising combustion gas environments at temperatures up to about 870 ºC and it is widely used in aerospace and industrial applications. Coatings have been characterized microstructurally, at INTA (National Institute for Aerospace Technology), by means of SEM-EDS (Scanning Electronic Microscopy- Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy) and XRD (X-Ray Diffraction), and tribologically by microhardness measurements and pin-on-disc testing to determine friction coefficients as well as wear resistance. The coatings were tested tribologically at high temperature at INTA and under vacuum at AMTT-ARC (Aerospace and Space Materials Technology Testhouse – Austrian Research Centres), in Seibersdorf (Austria). Different loads, linear speeds and pin materials were studied. TH100 and TH103 QC alloy matrix composite coatings were deposited by HVOF with excellent microstructural quality (low porosity, uniform phase distribution) and showed to be excellent wear resistant coatings. However these QC alloy matrix composite coatings are poor as a self-lubricant at room temperature but much better at high temperature or in vacuum. The results from the work performed within the scope of this thesis have provided new knowledge concerning the tribological behavior of self-lubricating quasicrystalline composite coatings deposited by thermal spraying. Although these results are very promising, they have not shown an adequate self-lubricating behavior as was intended, and also, as in any research, the results have in addition raised new questions. Future work is suggested to complement the results of this thesis in order to improve the selflubricating behaviour of the coatings.

Inorganic Photovoltaics - Planar and Nanostructured Devices

Since its invention in the 1950s, semiconductor solar cell technology has evolved in great leaps and bounds. Solar power is now being considered as a serious leading contender for replacing fossil fuel based power generation. This article reviews the evolution and current state, and potential areas of near future research focus, of leading inorganic materials based solar cells, including bulk crystalline, amorphous thin-films, and nanomaterials based solar cells. Bulk crystalline silicon solar cells continue to dominate the solar power market, and continued efforts at device fabrication improvements, and device topology advancements are discussed. III-V compound semiconductor materials on c-Si for solar power generation are also reviewed. Developments in thin-film based solar cells are reviewed, with a focus on amorphous silicon, copper zinc tin sulfide, cadmium telluride, as well as nanostructured Cadmium telluride. Recent developments in the use of nano-materials for solar power generation, including silicon and gallium arsenide nanowires, are also reviewed.

Barriers to the adoption of photovoltaic systems: The state of the art

Although photovoltaic (PV) systems have become much more competitive, the diffusion of PV systems still remains low in comparison to conventional energy sources. What are the current barriers hindering the diffusion of PV systems? In order to address this, we conducted an extensive and systematic literature review based on the Web of Science database. Our state-of-the-art review shows that, despite the rapid development and maturity of the technology during the past few years, the adoption of PV systems still faces several barriers. The wide adoption of PV systems-either as a substitute for other electricity power generation systems in urban areas or for rural electrification-is a challenging process. Our results show that the barriers are evident for both low- and high-income economies, encompassing four dimensions: sociotechnical, management, economic, and policy. Although the barriers vary across context, the lessons learned from one study can be valuable to others. The involvement of all stakeholders-adopters, local communities, firms, international organizations, financial institutions, and government-is crucial to foster the adoption.

Power system stability of a small sized isolated network supplied by a combined wind-pumped storage generation system: a case study in the Canary Islands

Massive integration of renewable energy sources in electrical power systems of remote islands is a subject of current interest. The increasing cost of fossil fuels, transport costs to isolated sites and environmental concerns constitute a serious drawback to the use of conventional fossil fuel plants. In a weak electrical grid, as it is typical on an island, if a large amount of conventional generation is substituted by renewable energy sources, power system safety and stability can be compromised, in the case of large grid disturbances. In this work, a model for transient stability analysis of an isolated electrical grid exclusively fed from a combination of renewable energy sources has been studied. This new generation model will be installed in El Hierro Island, in Spain. Additionally, an operation strategy to coordinate the generation units (wind, hydro) is also established. Attention is given to the assessment of inertial energy and reactive current to guarantee power system stability against large disturbances. The effectiveness of the proposed strategy is shown by means of simulation results.

High-peak-power pulse generation from a monolithic master oscillator power amplifier at 1.5 μm

We present an experimental study on the generation of high-peak-power short optical pulses from a fully integrated master-oscillator power-amplifier emitting at 1.5 μm. High-peak-power (2.7 W) optical pulses with short duration (100 ps) have been generated by gain switching the master oscillator under optimized driving conditions. The static and dynamic characteristics of the device have been studied as a function of the driving conditions. The ripples appearing in the power-current characteristics under cw conditions have been attributed to mode hopping between the master oscillator resonant mode and the Fabry-Perot modes of the entire device cavity. Although compound cavity effects have been evidenced to affect the static and dynamic performance of the device, we have demonstrated that trains of single-mode short optical pulses at gigahertz frequencies can be conveniently generated in these devices.

Power-frequency control of hydropower plants with long penstocks in isolated systems with wind generation

In this paper the power-frequency control of hydropower plants with long penstocks is addressed. In such configuration the effects of pressure waves cannot be neglected and therefore commonly used criteria for adjustment of PID governors would not be appropriate. A second-order Π model of the turbine-penstock based on a lumped parameter approach is considered. A correction factor is introduced in order to approximate the model frequency response to the continuous case in the frequency interval of interest. Using this model, several criteria are analysed for adjusting the PI governor of a hydropower plant operating in an isolated system. Practical criteria for adjusting the PI governor are given. The results are applied to a real case of a small island where the objective is to achieve a generation 100% renewable (wind and hydro). Frequency control is supposed to be provided exclusively by the hydropower plant. It is verified that the usual criterion for tuning the PI controller of isolated hydro plants gives poor results. However, with the new proposed adjustment, the time response is considerably improved