Hybrid wind-diesel power plant valuation and optimization using real option theory and dynamic programming

El sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido tiene un gran potencial en la prestación de suministro de energía a comunidades remotas. En comparación con los sistemas tradicionales de diesel, las plantas de energía híbridas ofrecen grandes ventajas tales como el suministro de capacidad de energía extra para "microgrids", reducción de los contaminantes y emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, y la cobertura del riesgo de aumento inesperado del precio del combustible. El principal objetivo de la presente tesis es proporcionar nuevos conocimientos para la evaluación y optimización de los sistemas de energía híbrido eólico-diesel considerando las incertidumbres. Dado que la energía eólica es una variable estocástica, ésta no puede ser controlada ni predecirse con exactitud. La naturaleza incierta del viento como fuente de energía produce serios problemas tanto para la operación como para la evaluación del valor del sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido. Por un lado, la regulación de la potencia inyectada desde las turbinas de viento es una difícil tarea cuando opera el sistema híbrido. Por otro lado, el bene.cio económico de un sistema eólico-diesel híbrido se logra directamente a través de la energía entregada a la red de alimentación de la energía eólica. Consecuentemente, la incertidumbre de los recursos eólicos incrementa la dificultad de estimar los beneficios globales en la etapa de planificación. La principal preocupación del modelo tradicional determinista es no tener en cuenta la incertidumbre futura a la hora de tomar la decisión de operación. Con lo cual, no se prevé las acciones operativas flexibles en respuesta a los escenarios futuros. El análisis del rendimiento y simulación por ordenador en el Proyecto Eólico San Cristóbal demuestra que la incertidumbre sobre la energía eólica, las estrategias de control, almacenamiento de energía, y la curva de potencia de aerogeneradores tienen un impacto significativo sobre el rendimiento del sistema. En la presente tesis, se analiza la relación entre la teoría de valoración de opciones y el proceso de toma de decisiones. La opción real se desarrolla con un modelo y se presenta a través de ejemplos prácticos para evaluar el valor de los sistemas de energía eólica-diesel híbridos. Los resultados muestran que las opciones operacionales pueden aportar un valor adicional para el sistema de energía híbrida, cuando esta flexibilidad operativa se utiliza correctamente. Este marco se puede aplicar en la optimización de la operación a corto plazo teniendo en cuenta la naturaleza dependiente de la trayectoria de la política óptima de despacho, dadas las plausibles futuras realizaciones de la producción de energía eólica. En comparación con los métodos de valoración y optimización existentes, el resultado del caso de estudio numérico muestra que la política de operación resultante del modelo de optimización propuesto presenta una notable actuación en la reducción del con- sumo total de combustible del sistema eólico-diesel. Con el .n de tomar decisiones óptimas, los operadores de plantas de energía y los gestores de éstas no deben centrarse sólo en el resultado directo de cada acción operativa, tampoco deberían tomar decisiones deterministas. La forma correcta es gestionar dinámicamente el sistema de energía teniendo en cuenta el valor futuro condicionado en cada opción frente a la incertidumbre. ABSTRACT Hybrid wind-diesel power systems have a great potential in providing energy supply to remote communities. Compared with the traditional diesel systems, hybrid power plants are providing many advantages such as providing extra energy capacity to the micro-grid, reducing pollution and greenhouse-gas emissions, and hedging the risk of unexpected fuel price increases. This dissertation aims at providing novel insights for assessing and optimizing hybrid wind-diesel power systems considering the related uncertainties. Since wind power can neither be controlled nor accurately predicted, the energy harvested from a wind turbine may be considered a stochastic variable. This uncertain nature of wind energy source results in serious problems for both the operation and value assessment of the hybrid wind-diesel power system. On the one hand, regulating the uncertain power injected from wind turbines is a difficult task when operating the hybrid system. On the other hand, the economic profit of a hybrid wind-diesel system is achieved directly through the energy delivered to the power grid from the wind energy. Therefore, the uncertainty of wind resources has increased the difficulty in estimating the total benefits in the planning stage. The main concern of the traditional deterministic model is that it does not consider the future uncertainty when making the dispatch decision. Thus, it does not provide flexible operational actions in response to the uncertain future scenarios. Performance analysis and computer simulation on the San Cristobal Wind Project demonstrate that the wind power uncertainty, control strategies, energy storage, and the wind turbine power curve have a significant impact on the performance of the system. In this dissertation, the relationship between option pricing theory and decision making process is discussed. A real option model is developed and presented through practical examples for assessing the value of hybrid wind-diesel power systems. Results show that operational options can provide additional value to the hybrid power system when this operational flexibility is correctly utilized. This framework can be applied in optimizing short term dispatch decisions considering the path-dependent nature of the optimal dispatch policy, given the plausible future realizations of the wind power production. Comparing with the existing valuation and optimization methods, result from numerical example shows that the dispatch policy resulting from the proposed optimization model exhibits a remarkable performance in minimizing the total fuel consumption of the wind-diesel system. In order to make optimal decisions, power plant operators and managers should not just focus on the direct outcome of each operational action; neither should they make deterministic decisions. The correct way is to dynamically manage the power system by taking into consideration the conditional future value in each option in response to the uncertainty.

Contribute to the Study of Vertical Distribution of Conventional No-Till Seeders and Spatial Variability of Seed Depth Placement of Maize in Alentejo, Portugal

Entre os vários fatores que contribuem para a produção de uma cultura de milho, a distribuição vertical dos semeadores avaliada através da localização da semente em profundidade é um fator-chave, especialmente na técnica de sementeira direta. Simultaneamente, dada a complexidade dos ecossistemas naturais e agrícolas em sistemas de agricultura de conservação, a gestão diferenciada e localizada das parcelas assume um importante papel na análise e gestão da variabilidade das propriedades do solo e estabelecimento das culturas, nomeadamente utilizando informação geo referenciada e tecnologia expedita. Assim, o principal objetivo desta Tese foi a avaliação em culturas de milho da variabilidade espacial da localização de semente em profundidade e estabelecimento da cultura em sementeira direta usando sistemas convencionais de controlo de profundidade, tendo-se comparado com diferentes sistemas de mobilização e recorrendo a tecnologias de agricultura de precisão. Os ensaios decorreram na região Mediterrânea do Alentejo, em propriedades agrícolas no decorrer das campanhas de 2010, 2011, 2012 e 2015 em 6 diferentes campos experimentais. O trabalho experimental consistiu em ensaios com avaliações in loco do solo e cultura, consumo de combustível das operações e deteção remota. Os resultados obtidos indicam que não só o sistema de mobilização afetou a localização da semente em profundidade, como em sementeira direta a profundidade de sementeira foi afetada pelo teor de humidade do solo, resistência do solo à profundidade e velocidade da operação de sementeira. Adicionalmente observaram-se condições heterogéneas de emergência e estabelecimento da cultura afetadas por condições físicas de compactação do solo. Comparando os diferentes sistemas de mobilização, obteve-se uma significativa redução de combustível para a técnica de sementeira direta, apesar de se terem observado diferenças estatísticas significativas considerando diferentes calibrações de profundidade de sementeira Do trabalho realizado nesta Tese ressalva-se a importância que as tecnologias de agricultura de precisão podem ter no acompanhamento e avaliação de culturas em sementeira direta, bem como a necessidade de melhores procedimentos no controlo de profundidade dos semeadores pelo respetivos operadores ou ao invés, a adoção de semeadores com mecanismos ativos de controlo de profundidade. ABSTRACT Among the various factors that contribute towards producing a successful maize crop, seeders vertical distribution evaluated through seed depth placement is a key determinant, especially under a no-tillage technique. At the same time in conservation agriculture systems due to the complexity of natural and agricultural ecosystems site specific management became an important approach to understand and manage the variability of soil properties and crop establishment, especially when using geo spatial information and affording readily technology Thus, the main objective of this Thesis was to evaluate the spatial variability of seed depth placement and crop establishment in maize crops under no-tillage conditions compared to different tillage systems, using conventional seed depth control no till seeders and precision farming technologies. Trials were carried out in the Mediterranean region of Alentejo, in private farms along the sowing operations season over the years 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2015 in 6 different experimental fields. Experimental work covered field tests with in loco soil and crop evaluations, fuel operation evaluations and aerial sensing. The results obtained indicate that not only tillage system affected seed depth placement but under no till conditions seed depth was affected by soil moisture content, soil resistance to penetration and seeders forward speed. In addition uneven crop seedling and establishment depended on seed depth placement and could be affected by physical problems of compaction layers. Significant reduction in fuel consumption was observed for no till operations although significant differences observed according to different setting calibrations of seed depth control. According to the results, precision agriculture is an important tool to evaluate crops under no till conditions and seed depth mechanisms should be more accurate by the operators or is determinant the adoption of new active depth control technology to improve seeders performance.

Multiple Robots, Single Operator: Considerations About Information And Commanding

Multiple robot, single operator scenarios suppose a challenge in terms of human factors. Two relevant issues are keeping the situational awareness and managing the workload of operators. In order to address these problems, this work analyses the management of information and commands in multi-robot missions. About the information, this paper proposes a selection based on mission and operator states. Regarding the commands, this work reflects about the levels of automation and the methods of commanding.

Multi-UAV Coordination and Control Interface

The interest in missions with multiple Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) has increased significantly in last years. These missions take advantage of the use of fleets instead of single UAVs to ensure the success, reduce the duration or increase the goals of the mission. In addition, they allow performing tasks that require multiple agents and certain coordination (e.g. surveillance of large areas or transport of heavy loads). Nevertheless, these missions suppose a challenge in terms of control and monitoring. In fact, the workload of the operators rises with the utilization of multiple UAVs and payloads, since they have to analyze more information, make more decisions and generate more commands during the mission. This work addresses the operator workload problem in multi-UAV missions by reducing and selecting the information. Two approaches are considered: a first one that selects the information according to the mission state, and a second one that selects it according to the operator preferences. The result is an interface that is able to control the amount of information and show what is relevant for mission and operator at the time.