Flood frequency analysis by a bivariate model based on copulas

La adecuada estimación de avenidas de diseño asociadas a altos periodos de retorno es necesaria para el diseño y gestión de estructuras hidráulicas como presas. En la práctica, la estimación de estos cuantiles se realiza normalmente a través de análisis de frecuencia univariados, basados en su mayoría en el estudio de caudales punta. Sin embargo, la naturaleza de las avenidas es multivariada, siendo esencial tener en cuenta características representativas de las avenidas, tales como caudal punta, volumen y duración del hidrograma, con el fin de llevar a cabo un análisis apropiado; especialmente cuando el caudal de entrada se transforma en un caudal de salida diferente durante el proceso de laminación en un embalse o llanura de inundación. Los análisis de frecuencia de avenidas multivariados han sido tradicionalmente llevados a cabo mediante el uso de distribuciones bivariadas estándar con el fin de modelar variables correlacionadas. Sin embargo, su uso conlleva limitaciones como la necesidad de usar el mismo tipo de distribuciones marginales para todas las variables y la existencia de una relación de dependencia lineal entre ellas. Recientemente, el uso de cópulas se ha extendido en hidrología debido a sus beneficios en relación al contexto multivariado, permitiendo superar los inconvenientes de las técnicas tradicionales. Una copula es una función que representa la estructura de dependencia de las variables de estudio, y permite obtener la distribución de frecuencia multivariada de dichas variables mediante sus distribuciones marginales, sin importar el tipo de distribución marginal utilizada. La estimación de periodos de retorno multivariados, y por lo tanto, de cuantiles multivariados, también se facilita debido a la manera en la que las cópulas están formuladas. La presente tesis doctoral busca proporcionar metodologías que mejoren las técnicas tradicionales usadas por profesionales para estimar cuantiles de avenida más adecuados para el diseño y la gestión de presas, así como para la evaluación del riesgo de avenida, mediante análisis de frecuencia de avenidas bivariados basados en cópulas. Las variables consideradas para ello son el caudal punta y el volumen del hidrograma. Con el objetivo de llevar a cabo un estudio completo, la presente investigación abarca: (i) el análisis de frecuencia de avenidas local bivariado centrado en examinar y comparar los periodos de retorno teóricos basados en la probabilidad natural de ocurrencia de una avenida, con el periodo de retorno asociado al riesgo de sobrevertido de la presa bajo análisis, con el fin de proporcionar cuantiles en una estación de aforo determinada; (ii) la extensión del enfoque local al regional, proporcionando un procedimiento completo para llevar a cabo un análisis de frecuencia de avenidas regional bivariado para proporcionar cuantiles en estaciones sin aforar o para mejorar la estimación de dichos cuantiles en estaciones aforadas; (iii) el uso de cópulas para investigar tendencias bivariadas en avenidas debido al aumento de los niveles de urbanización en una cuenca; y (iv) la extensión de series de avenida observadas mediante la combinación de los beneficios de un modelo basado en cópulas y de un modelo hidrometeorológico. Accurate design flood estimates associated with high return periods are necessary to design and manage hydraulic structures such as dams. In practice, the estimate of such quantiles is usually done via univariate flood frequency analyses, mostly based on the study of peak flows. Nevertheless, the nature of floods is multivariate, being essential to consider representative flood characteristics, such as flood peak, hydrograph volume and hydrograph duration to carry out an appropriate analysis; especially when the inflow peak is transformed into a different outflow peak during the routing process in a reservoir or floodplain. Multivariate flood frequency analyses have been traditionally performed by using standard bivariate distributions to model correlated variables, yet they entail some shortcomings such as the need of using the same kind of marginal distribution for all variables and the assumption of a linear dependence relation between them. Recently, the use of copulas has been extended in hydrology because of their benefits regarding dealing with the multivariate context, as they overcome the drawbacks of the traditional approach. A copula is a function that represents the dependence structure of the studied variables, and allows obtaining the multivariate frequency distribution of them by using their marginal distributions, regardless of the kind of marginal distributions considered. The estimate of multivariate return periods, and therefore multivariate quantiles, is also facilitated by the way in which copulas are formulated. The present doctoral thesis seeks to provide methodologies that improve traditional techniques used by practitioners, in order to estimate more appropriate flood quantiles for dam design, dam management and flood risk assessment, through bivariate flood frequency analyses based on the copula approach. The flood variables considered for that goal are peak flow and hydrograph volume. In order to accomplish a complete study, the present research addresses: (i) a bivariate local flood frequency analysis focused on examining and comparing theoretical return periods based on the natural probability of occurrence of a flood, with the return period associated with the risk of dam overtopping, to estimate quantiles at a given gauged site; (ii) the extension of the local to the regional approach, supplying a complete procedure for performing a bivariate regional flood frequency analysis to either estimate quantiles at ungauged sites or improve at-site estimates at gauged sites; (iii) the use of copulas to investigate bivariate flood trends due to increasing urbanisation levels in a catchment; and (iv) the extension of observed flood series by combining the benefits of a copula-based model and a hydro-meteorological model.

Type-I intermittency with discontinuous reinjection probability density in a truncation model of the derivative nonlinear Schrödinger equation

In previous papers, the type-I intermittent phenomenon with continuous reinjection probability density (RPD) has been extensively studied. However, in this paper type-I intermittency considering discontinuous RPD function in one-dimensional maps is analyzed. To carry out the present study the analytic approximation presented by del Río and Elaskar (Int. J. Bifurc. Chaos 20:1185-1191, 2010) and Elaskar et al. (Physica A. 390:2759-2768, 2011) is extended to consider discontinuous RPD functions. The results of this analysis show that the characteristic relation only depends on the position of the lower bound of reinjection (LBR), therefore for the LBR below the tangent point the relation {Mathematical expression}, where {Mathematical expression} is the control parameter, remains robust regardless the form of the RPD, although the average of the laminar phases {Mathematical expression} can change. Finally, the study of discontinuous RPD for type-I intermittency which occurs in a three-wave truncation model for the derivative nonlinear Schrodinger equation is presented. In all tests the theoretical results properly verify the numerical data

A coupled elastoplastic-damage constitutive model with Lode angle dependent failure criterion

A coupled elastoplastic-damage constitutive model with Lode angle dependent failure criterion for high strain and ballistic applications is presented. A Lode angle dependent function is added to the equivalent plastic strain to failure definition of the Johnson–Cook failure criterion. The weakening in the elastic law and in the Johnson–Cook-like constitutive relation implicitly introduces the Lode angle dependency in the elastoplastic behaviour. The material model is calibrated for precipitation hardened Inconel 718 nickel-base superalloy. The combination of a Lode angle dependent failure criterion with weakened constitutive equations is proven to predict fracture patterns of the mechanical tests performed and provide reliable results. Additionally, the mesh size dependency on the prediction of the fracture patterns was studied, showing that was crucial to predict such patterns

A gradient-enhanced large-deformation continuum damage model for fibre-reinforced materials

A non-local gradient-based damage formulation within a geometrically non-linear setting is presented. The hyperelastic constitutive response at local material point level is governed by a strain energy which is additively composed of an isotropic matrix and of an anisotropic fibre-reinforced material, respectively. The inelastic constitutive response is governed by a scalar [1–d]-type damage formulation, where only the anisotropic elastic part is assumed to be affected by the damage. Following the concept in Dimitrijević and Hackl [28], the local free energy function is enhanced by a gradient-term. This term essentially contains the gradient of the non-local damage variable which, itself, is introduced as an additional independent variable. In order to guarantee the equivalence between the local and non-local damage variable, a penalisation term is incorporated within the free energy function. Based on the principle of minimum total potential energy, a coupled system of Euler–Lagrange equations, i.e., the balance of linear momentum and the balance of the non-local damage field, is obtained and solved in weak form. The resulting coupled, highly non-linear system of equations is symmetric and can conveniently be solved by a standard incremental-iterative Newton–Raphson-type solution scheme. Several three-dimensional displacement- and force-driven boundary value problems—partially motivated by biomechanical application—highlight the mesh-objective characteristics and constitutive properties of the model and illustratively underline the capabilities of the formulation proposed

A computational model coupling mechanics and electrophysiology in spinal cord injury

Traumatic brain injury and spinal cord injury have recently been put under the spotlight as major causes of death and disability in the developed world. Despite the important ongoing experimental and modeling campaigns aimed at understanding the mechanics of tissue and cell damage typically observed in such events, the differentiated roles of strain, stress and their corresponding loading rates on the damage level itself remain unclear. More specifically, the direct relations between brain and spinal cord tissue or cell damage, and electrophysiological functions are still to be unraveled. Whereas mechanical modeling efforts are focusing mainly on stress distribution and mechanistic-based damage criteria, simulated function-based damage criteria are still missing. Here, we propose a new multiscale model of myelinated axon associating electrophysiological impairment to structural damage as a function of strain and strain rate. This multiscale approach provides a new framework for damage evaluation directly relating neuron mechanics and electrophysiological properties, thus providing a link between mechanical trauma and subsequent functional deficits

A gradient-enhanced continuum damage model with application to fibre-reinforced tissues at finite strains

A non-local gradient-based damage formulation within a geometrically non-linear set- ting is presented. The hyperelastic constitutive response at local material point level is governed by a strain energy function which is additively composed by an isotropic neo-Hookean matrix and by an anisotropic fibre-reinforced material based on the model proposed by T. Gasser, R. Ogden, and G. Holzapfel.

Function of glutathione in Arabidopsis immunity and glucosinolate metabolism

Induced defense responses in plants usually involve biosynthesis of antimicrobial metabolites and their targeted secretion at the site of pathogen contact. Our recent study on the model plant Arabidopsis revealed a novel pathogen triggered metabolism pathway for glucosinolates, amino acid-derived thio-glucosides characteristic for crucifer plants that so far were mainly known as insect deterrents (Bednarek et al. 2009).