Flooding through the lens of mobile phone activity

Natural disasters affect hundreds of millions of people worldwide every year. Emergency response efforts depend upon the availability of timely information, such as information concerning the movements of affected populations. The analysis of aggregated and anonymized Call Detail Records (CDR) captured from the mobile phone infrastructure provides new possibilities to characterize human behavior during critical events. In this work, we investigate the viability of using CDR data combined with other sources of information to characterize the floods that occurred in Tabasco, Mexico in 2009. An impact map has been reconstructed using Landsat-7 images to identify the floods. Within this frame, the underlying communication activity signals in the CDR data have been analyzed and compared against rainfall levels extracted from data of the NASA-TRMM project. The variations in the number of active phones connected to each cell tower reveal abnormal activity patterns in the most affected locations during and after the floods that could be used as signatures of the floods - both in terms of infrastructure impact assessment and population information awareness. The representativeness of the analysis has been assessed using census data and civil protection records. While a more extensive validation is required, these early results suggest high potential in using cell tower activity information to improve early warning and emergency management mechanisms.

The Economic Impacts Of Climate Change On The Chilean Agricultural Sector

The agricultural sector could be one of the most vulnerable economic sectors to the impacts of climate change in the coming decades. Climate change impacts are related to changes in the growth period, extreme weather events, and changes in temperature and recipitation patterns, among others. All of these impacts may have significant consequences on agricultural production(Bates, et al.2008. A main issue regarding climate change impacts is related to the uncertainty associated with their occurrence. Climate change impacts can bestimated with simulation models based on several assumptions, among which the future patterns of emissions of greenhouse g asses are quite likely the most relevant, driving the development of future scenarios, i.e. plausible visions of how the future may unfold. Those scenarios are developed as storylines associated with different assumptions about climate and socioeconomic conditions and emissions, with reference figures, such as demographic projections, average global temperatures, etc.(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2000). Within this context, climate change impact assessment is forced to consider multiple and interconnected sources of uncertainty in order to produce valuable information for policymakers.

Modelo para la integración del trazado de infraestructuras lineales en el paisaje y el medio ambiente basado en SIG

El análisis de las diferentes alternativas en la planificación y diseño de corredores y trazados de carreteras debe basarse en la correcta definición de variables territoriales que sirvan como criterios para la toma de decisión y esto requiere un análisis ambiental preliminar de esas variables de calidad. En España, los estudios de viabilidad de nuevas carreteras y autovías están asociados a una fase del proceso de decisión que se corresponde con el denominado Estudio Informativo, el cual establece condicionantes físicos, ambientales, de uso del suelo y culturales que deben ser considerados en las primeras fases de la definición del trazado de un corredor de carretera. Así, la metodología más frecuente es establecer diferentes niveles de capacidad de acogida del territorio en el área de estudio con el fin de resumir las variables territoriales en mapas temáticos y facilitar el proceso de trazado de las alternativas de corredores de carretera. El paisaje es un factor limitante a tener en cuenta en la planificación y diseño de carreteras y, por tanto, deben buscarse trazados más sostenibles en relación con criterios estéticos y ecológicos del mismo. Pero este factor no es frecuentemente analizado en los Estudios Informativos e incluso, si es considerado, los estudios específicos de la calidad del paisaje (estético y ecológico) y de las formas del terreno no incorporan las recomendaciones de las guías de trazado para evitar o reducir los impactos en el paisaje. Además, los mapas de paisaje que se generan en este tipo de estudios no se corresponden con la escala de desarrollo del Estudio Informativo (1:5.000). Otro déficit común en planificación de corredores y trazados de carreteras es que no se tiene en cuenta la conectividad del paisaje durante el proceso de diseño de la carretera para prevenir la afección a los corredores de fauna existentes en el paisaje. Este déficit puede originar un posterior efecto barrera en los movimientos dispersivos de la fauna y la fragmentación de sus hábitats debido a la ocupación parcial o total de las teselas de hábitats con importancia biológica para la fauna (o hábitats focales) y a la interrupción de los corredores de fauna que concentran esos movimientos dispersivos de la fauna entre teselas. El objetivo principal de esta tesis es mejorar el estudio del paisaje para prevenir su afección durante el proceso de trazado de carreteras, facilitar la conservación de los corredores de fauna (o pasillos verdes) y la localización de medidas preventivas y correctoras en términos de selección y cuantificación de factores de idoneidad a fin de reducir los impactos visuales y ecológicos en el paisaje a escala local. Concretamente, la incorporación de valores cuantitativos y bien justificados en el proceso de decisión permite incrementar la transparencia en el proceso de diseño de corredores y trazados de carreteras. Con este fin, se han planteado cuatro preguntas específicas en esta investigación (1) ¿Cómo se seleccionan y evalúan los factores territoriales limitantes para localizar una nueva carretera por los profesionales españoles de planificación del territorio en relación con el paisaje? (2) ¿Cómo pueden ser definidos los corredores de fauna a partir de factores del paisaje que influyen en los movimientos dispersivos de la fauna? (3) ¿Cómo pueden delimitarse y evaluarse los corredores de fauna incluyendo el comportamiento parcialmente errático en los movimientos dispersivos de la fauna y el efecto barrera de los elementos antrópicos a una escala local? (4) ¿Qué y cómo las recomendaciones de diseño de carreteras relacionadas con el paisaje y las formas del terreno pueden ser incluidas en un modelo de Sistemas de Información Geográfica (SIG) para ayudar a los ingenieros civiles durante el proceso de diseño de un trazado de carreteras bajo el punto de vista de la sostenibilidad?. Esta tesis doctoral propone nuevas metodologías que mejoran el análisis visual y ecológico del paisaje utilizando indicadores y modelos SIG para obtener alternativas de trazado que produzcan un menor impacto en el paisaje. Estas metodologías fueron probadas en un paisaje heterogéneo con una alta tasa de densidad de corzo (Capreolus capreolus L.), uno de los grandes mamíferos más atropellados en la red de carreteras españolas, y donde está planificada la construcción de una nueva autovía que atravesará la mitad del área de distribución del corzo. Inicialmente, se han analizado las variables utilizadas en 22 estudios de proyectos de planificación de corredores de carreteras promovidos por el Ministerio de Fomento entre 2006 y 2008. Estas variables se agruparon según condicionantes físicos, ambientales, de usos del suelo y culturales con el fin de comparar los valores asignados de capacidad de acogida del territorio a cada variable en los diferentes estudios revisados. Posteriormente, y como etapa previa de un análisis de conectividad, se construyó un mapa de resistencia de los movimientos dispersivos del corzo en base a la literatura y al juicio de expertos. Usando esta investigación como base, se le asignó un valor de resistencia a cada factor seleccionado para construir la matriz de resistencia, ponderándolo y combinándolo con el resto de factores usando el proceso analítico jerárquico y los operadores de lógica difusa como métodos de análisis multicriterio. Posteriormente, se diseñó una metodología SIG para delimitar claramente la extensión física de los corredores de fauna de acuerdo a un valor umbral de ancho geométrico mínimo, así como la existencia de múltiples potenciales conexiones entre cada par de teselas de hábitats presentes en el paisaje estudiado. Finalmente, se realizó un procesado de datos Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) y un modelo SIG para calcular la calidad del paisaje (estético y ecológico), las formas del terreno que presentan características similares para trazar una carretera y la acumulación de vistas de potenciales conductores y observadores de los alrededores de la nueva vía. Las principales contribuciones de esta investigación al conocimiento científico existente en el campo de la evaluación del impacto ambiental en relación al diseño de corredores y trazados de carreteras son cuatro. Primero, el análisis realizado de 22 Estudios Informativos de planificación de carreteras reveló que los métodos aplicados por los profesionales para la evaluación de la capacidad de acogida del territorio no fue suficientemente estandarizada, ya que había una falta de uniformidad en el uso de fuentes cartográficas y en las metodologías de evaluación de la capacidad de acogida del territorio, especialmente en el análisis de la calidad del paisaje estético y ecológico. Segundo, el análisis realizado en esta tesis destaca la importancia de los métodos multicriterio para estructurar, combinar y validar factores que limitan los movimientos dispersivos de la fauna en el análisis de conectividad. Tercero, los modelos SIG desarrollados Generador de alternativas de corredores o Generator of Alternative Corridors (GAC) y Eliminador de Corredores Estrechos o Narrow Corridor Eraser (NCE) pueden ser aplicados sistemáticamente y sobre una base científica en análisis de conectividad como una mejora de las herramientas existentes para la comprensión el paisaje como una red compuesta por nodos y enlaces interconectados. Así, ejecutando los modelos GAC y NCE de forma iterativa, pueden obtenerse corredores alternativos con similar probabilidad de ser utilizados por la fauna y sin que éstos presenten cuellos de botella. Cuarto, el caso de estudio llevado a cabo de prediseño de corredores y trazado de una nueva autovía ha sido novedoso incluyendo una clasificación semisupervisada de las formas del terreno, filtrando una nube de puntos LiDAR e incluyendo la nueva geometría 3D de la carretera en el Modelo Digital de Superficie (MDS). El uso combinado del procesamiento de datos LiDAR y de índices y clasificaciones geomorfológicas puede ayudar a los responsables encargados en la toma de decisiones a evaluar qué alternativas de trazado causan el menor impacto en el paisaje, proporciona una visión global de los juicios de valor más aplicados y, en conclusión, define qué medidas de integración paisajística correctoras deben aplicarse y dónde. ABSTRACT The assessment of different alternatives in road-corridor planning and layout design must be based on a number of well-defined territorial variables that serve as decision-making criteria, and this requires a high-quality preliminary environmental analysis of those quality variables. In Spain, feasibility studies for new roads and motorways are associated to a phase of the decision procedure which corresponds with the one known as the Informative Study, which establishes the physical, environmental, land-use and cultural constraints to be considered in the early stages of defining road corridor layouts. The most common methodology is to establish different levels of Territorial Carrying Capacity (TCC) in the study area in order to summarize the territorial variables on thematic maps and facilitate the tracing process of road-corridor layout alternatives. Landscape is a constraint factor that must be considered in road planning and design, and the most sustainable layouts should be sought based on aesthetic and ecological criteria. However this factor is not often analyzed in Informative Studies and even if it is, baseline studies on landscape quality (aesthetic and ecological) and landforms do not usually include the recommendations of road tracing guides designed to avoid or reduce impacts on the landscape. The resolution of the landscape maps produced in this type of studies does not comply with the recommended road design scale (1:5,000) in the regulations for the Informative Study procedure. Another common shortcoming in road planning is that landscape ecological connectivity is not considered during road design in order to avoid affecting wildlife corridors in the landscape. In the prior road planning stage, this issue could lead to a major barrier effect for fauna dispersal movements and to the fragmentation of their habitat due to the partial or total occupation of habitat patches of biological importance for the fauna (or focal habitats), and the interruption of wildlife corridors that concentrate fauna dispersal movements between patches. The main goal of this dissertation is to improve the study of the landscape and prevent negative effects during the road tracing process, and facilitate the preservation of wildlife corridors (or green ways) and the location of preventive and corrective measures by selecting and quantifying suitability factors to reduce visual and ecological landscape impacts at a local scale. Specifically the incorporation of quantitative and well-supported values in the decision-making process provides increased transparency in the road corridors and layouts design process. Four specific questions were raised in this research: (1) How are territorial constraints selected and evaluated in terms of landscape by Spanish land-planning practitioners before locating a new road? (2) How can wildlife corridors be defined based on the landscape factors influencing the dispersal movements of fauna? (3) How can wildlife corridors be delimited and assessed to include the partially erratic movements of fauna and the barrier effect of the anthropic elements at a local scale? (4) How recommendations of road design related to landscape and landforms can be included in a Geographic Information System (GIS) model to aid civil engineers during the road layout design process and support sustainable development? This doctoral thesis proposes new methodologies that improve the assessment of the visual and ecological landscape character using indicators and GIS models to obtain road layout alternatives with a lower impact on the landscape. These methodologies were tested on a case study of a heterogeneous landscape with a high density of roe deer (Capreolus capreolus L.) –one of the large mammals most commonly hit by vehicles on the Spanish road network– and where a new motorway is planned to pass through the middle of their distribution area. We explored the variables used in 22 road-corridor planning projects sponsored by the Ministry of Public Works between 2006 and 2008. These variables were grouped into physical, environmental, land-use and cultural constraints for the purpose of comparing the TCC values assigned to each variable in the various studies reviewed. As a prior stage in a connectivity analysis, a map of resistance to roe deer dispersal movements was created based on the literature and experts judgment. Using this research as a base, each factor selected to build the matrix was assigned a resistance value and weighted and combined with the rest of the factors using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic operators as multicriteria assessment (MCA) methods. A GIS methodology was designed to clearly delimit the physical area of wildlife corridors according to a geometric threshold width value, and the multiple potential connections between each pair of habitat patches in the landscape. A Digital Surface Model Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) dataset processing and a GIS model was performed to determine landscape quality (aesthetic and ecological) and landforms with similar characteristics for the road layout, and the cumulative viewshed of potential drivers and observers in the area surrounding the new motorway. The main contributions of this research to current scientific knowledge in the field of environmental impact assessment for road corridors and layouts design are four. First, the analysis of 22 Informative Studies on road planning revealed that the methods applied by practitioners for assessing the TCC were not sufficiently standardized due to the lack of uniformity in the cartographic information sources and the TCC valuation methodologies, especially in the analysis of the aesthetic and ecological quality of the landscape. Second, the analysis in this dissertation highlights the importance of multicriteria methods to structure, combine and validate factors that constrain wildlife dispersal movements in the connectivity analysis. Third, the “Generator of Alternative Corridors (GAC)” and “Narrow Corridor Eraser (NCE)” GIS models developed can be applied systematically and on a scientific basis in connectivity analyses to improve existing tools and understand landscape as a network composed of interconnected nodes and links. Thus, alternative corridors with similar probability of use by fauna and without bottlenecks can be obtained by iteratively running GAC and NCE models. Fourth, our case study of new motorway corridors and layouts design innovatively included semi-supervised classification of landforms, filtering of LiDAR point clouds and new 3D road geometry on the Digital Surface Model (DSM). The combined used of LiDAR data processing and geomorphological indices and classifications can help decision-makers assess which road layouts produce lower impacts on the landscape, provide an overall insight into the most commonly applied value judgments, and in conclusion, define which corrective measures should be applied in terms of landscaping, and where.

An ITS architecture specification - The FOTsis project experience

The recent continuous development of Cooperative ITS has resulted in several initiatives which focus on different parts of the Cooperative environment landscape. The FOTsis project focuses on the infrastructure side of the Cooperative environment and will deploy and test 7 services designed to maximise the benefits of the integration of the road operator and infrastructure-based information providers into the ITS environment. This paper describes the current status of the project and focuses on the road safety approach within the project: safety services and safety impact assessment. The outlook on the project's next steps is given in the last section of the paper.

Atmospheric modelling of tritium forms transport: review of capabilities and R&D needs for the assessment of fusion facilities environmental impact

One of the key scrutiny issues of new coming energy era would be the environmental impact of fusion facilities managing one kg of tritium. The potential change of committed dose regulatory limits together with the implementation of nuclear design principles (As Low as Reasonably achievable - ALARA -, Defense in Depth -D-i-D-) for fusion facilities could strongly impact on the cost of deployment of coming fusion technology. Accurate modeling of environmental tritium transport forms (HT, HTO) for the assessment of fusion facility dosimetric impact in Accidental case appears as of major interest. This paper considers different short-term releases of tritium forms (HT and HTO) to the atmosphere from a potential fusion reactor located in the Mediterranean Basin. This work models in detail the dispersion of tritium forms and dosimetric impact of selected environmental patterns both inland and in-sea using real topography and forecast meteorological data-fields (ECMWF/FLEXPART). We explore specific values of this ratio in different levels and we examine the influence of meteorological conditions in the HTO behavior for 24 hours. For this purpose we have used a tool which consists on a coupled Lagrangian ECMWF/FLEXPART model useful to follow real time releases of tritium at 10, 30 and 60 meters together with hourly observations of wind (and in some cases precipitations) to provide a short-range approximation of tritium cloud behavior. We have assessed inhalation doses. And also HTO/HT ratios in a representative set of cases during winter 2010 and spring 2011 for the 3 air levels.

¿Impact from road transport of radioactive wastes in Spain?

Transports of radioactive wastes in Spain are becoming issues of renewed interest, due to the increased mobility of these materials which can be expected after the building and operation of the planned central repository for this country in a near future. Such types of residues will be mainly of the medium and high activity classes and have raised concerns on the safety of the operations, the radiological protection of the individuals, the compliance with the legal regulations and their environmental consequences of all kind. In this study, relevant information for the assessment of radiological risk of road transport were taken into account, as the sources and destination of the radioactive transports, the amount of traveling to be done, the preferred routes and populations affected, the characterization of the residues and containers, their corresponding testing, etc. These data were supplied by different organizations fully related with these activities, like the nuclear power stations, the companies in charge of radioactive transports, the enterprises for inspection and control of the activities, etc., as well as the government institutions which are responsible for the selection and location of the storage facility and other decisions on the nuclear policies of the country. Thus, we have developed a program for computing the data in such a form that by entering the radiation levels at one meter of the transport loads and by choosing a particular displacement, the computer application is capable to calculate the corresponding radiological effects, like the global estimated impact, its relevance to the population in general or on those people living and driving near the main road routes, the doses received by the most exposed individuals (e.g. the workers for loading or driving the vehicle), or the probability of detrimental on the human health. The results of this work could be of help for a better understanding and management of these activities and their related impacts; at the same time that the generated reports of the computer application are considered of particular interest as innovative and complementary information to the current legal documentation, which is basically required for transporting radioactive wastes in the country, according with the international safety rules (like IAEA and ADR).Though main studies are still in progress, as the definite location for the Spanish storage facility has not been decided yet, preliminary results with the existing transports of residues of medium activity indicate that the radiological impact is very low in conventional operations. Nevertheless, the management of these transports is complex and laborious, making it convenient to progress further in the analysis and quantification of this kind of events, which constitutes one of the main objectives of the present study for the radioactive road mobility in Spain.

An integrated modeling approach to assess the impact on road freight transport demand of allowing longer and heavier vehicles (LHVs) in Spain

The assessment on introducing Longer and Heavier Vehicles (LHVs) on the road freight transport demand is performed in this paper by applying an integrated modeling approach composed of a Random Utility-Based Multiregional Input-Output model (RUBMRIO) and a road transport network model. The approach strongly supports the concept that changes in transport costs derived from the LHVs allowance as well as the economic structure of regions have both direct and indirect effects on the road freight transport system. In addition, we estimate the magnitude and extent of demand changes in the road freight transportation system by using the commodity-based structure of the approach to identify the effect on traffic flows and on pollutant emissions over the whole network of Spain by considering a sensitivity analysis of the main parameters which determine the share of Heavy-Goods Vehicles (HGVs) and LHVs. The results show that the introduction of LHVs will strengthen the competitiveness of the road haulage sector by reducing costs, emissions, and the total freight vehicles required.

Impact radiologique liés au transport de matières radioactives par route en Espagne / Radiological impact associated with the transport by road of radioactive material in Spain

Questions relating to the transport of radioactive materials are very much an issue of current interest due to the increasing mobility of the materials involved in the nuclear fuel cycle, commitment to the environment, the safety and protection of persons and the corresponding regulatory legal framework. The radiological impact associated with this type of transport was assessed by means of a new data-processing tool that may be of use and serve as complementary documentation to that included in transport regulations. Thus, by determining the level of radiation at a distance of one metre from the transport vehicle and by selecting a route, the associated impacts will be obtained, such as the affected populations, the dose received by the most highly exposed individual, the overall radiological impact, the doses received by the population along the route and the possible detriment to their health. The most important conclusion is that the emissions of ionising radiation from the transport of radioactive material by road in Spain are not significant as regards the generation of adverse effects on human health, and that their radiological impact may be considered negligible.

Assessment of energy efficiency and sustainability scenarios in the transport system

Background Energy Policy is one of the main drivers of Transport Policy. A number of strategies to reduce current energy consumption trends in the transport sector have been designed over the last decades. They include fuel taxes, more efficient technologies and changing travel behavior through demand regulation. But energy market has a high degree of uncertainty and the effectiveness of those policy options should be assessed. Methods A scenario based assessment methodology has been developed in the frame of the EU project STEPS. It provides an integrated view of Energy efficiency, environment, social and competitiveness impacts of the different strategies. It has been applied at European level and to five specific Regions. Concluding remarks The results are quite site specific dependent. However they show that regulation measures appear to be more effective than new technology investments. Higher energy prices could produce on their turn a deterioration of competitiveness and a threat for social goals.

E-comparisons: A new approach to round robin tests for environmental noise assessment in transport infrastructures

The increasing importance of pollutant noise has led to the creation of many new noise testing laboratories in recent years. For this reason and due to the legal implications that noise reporting may have, it is necessary to create procedures intended to guarantee the quality of the testing and its results. For instance, the ISO/IEC standard 17025:2005 specifies general requirements for the competence of testing laboratories. In this standard, interlaboratory comparisons are one of the main measures that must be applied to guarantee the quality of laboratories when applying specific methodologies for testing. In the specific case of environmental noise, round robin tests are usually difficult to design, as it is difficult to find scenarios that can be available and controlled while the participants carry out the measurements. Monitoring and controlling the factors that can influence the measurements (source emissions, propagation, background noise…) is not usually affordable, so the most extended solution is to create very effortless scenarios, where most of the factors that can have an influence on the results are excluded (sampling, processing of results, background noise, source detection…) The new approach described in this paper only requires the organizer to make actual measurements (or prepare virtual ones). Applying and interpreting a common reference document (standard, regulation…), the participants must analyze these input data independently to provide the results, which will be compared among the participants. The measurement costs are severely reduced for the participants, there is no need to monitor the scenario conditions, and almost any relevant factor can be included in this methodology

Subjective assessment of the impact of transmission errors in 3DTV compared to HDTV

Recently, broadcasted 3D video content has reached households with the first generation of 3DTV. However, few studies have been done to analyze the Quality of Experience (QoE) perceived by the end-users in this scenario. This paper studies the impact of trans- mission errors in 3DTV, considering that the video is delivered in side-by-side format over a conventional packet-based network. For this purpose, a novel evaluation methodology based on standard sin- gle stimulus methods and with the aim of keeping as close as pos- sible the home environment viewing conditions has been proposed. The effects of packet losses in monoscopic and stereoscopic videos are compared from the results of subjective assessment tests. Other aspects were also measured concerning 3D content as naturalness, sense of presence and visual fatigue. The results show that although the final perceived QoE is acceptable, some errors cause important binocular rivalry, and therefore, substantial visual discomfort.

Assessment of Narrow-Body Transport Airplane Evacuation by Numerical Simulation

This paper presents the results obtained with a new agent-based computer model that can simulate the evacuation of narrow-body transport airplanes in the conditions prescribed by the airworthiness regulations for certification. The model, described in detail in a former paper, has been verified with real data of narrow-body certification demonstrations. Numerical simulations of around 20 narrow-body aircraft, representative of current designs in various market segments, show the capabilities of the model and provide relevant information on the relationship between cabin features and emergency evacuation. The longitudinal location of emergency exits seems to be even more important than their size or the overall margin with respect to the prescribed number and type of exits indicated by the airworthiness requirements

Development of a methodology and tool to evaluate the impact of ICT measures on road transport emissions

The paper presents the main elements of a project entitled ICT-Emissions that aims at developing a novel methodology to evaluate the impact of ICT-related measures on mobility, vehicle energy consumption and CO2 emissions of vehicle fleets at the local scale, in order to promote the wider application of the most appropriate ICT measures. The proposed methodology combines traffic and emission modelling at micro and macro scales. These will be linked with interfaces and submodules which will be specifically designed and developed. A number of sources are available to the consortium to obtain the necessary input data. Also, experimental campaigns are offered to fill in gaps of information in traffic and emission patterns. The application of the methodology will be demonstrated using commercially available software. However, the methodology is developed in such a way as to enable its implementation by a variety of emission and traffic models. Particular emphasis is given to (a) the correct estimation of driver behaviour, as a result of traffic-related ICT measures, (b) the coverage of a large number of current vehicle technologies, including ICT systems, and (c) near future technologies such as hybrid, plug-in hybrids, and electric vehicles. The innovative combination of traffic, driver, and emission models produces a versatile toolbox that can simulate the impact on energy and CO2 of infrastructure measures (traffic management, dynamic traffic signs, etc.), driver assistance systems and ecosolutions (speed/cruise control, start/stop systems, etc.) or a combination of measures (cooperative systems).The methodology is validated by application in the Turin area and its capacity is further demonstrated by application in real world conditions in Madrid and Rome.

Impacts of the EU Biofuel Target on Agricultural Markets and Land Use - A Comparative Modelling Assessment

The Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC) requires that 20% of the EU's energy needs should come from renewable sources by 2020, and includes a target for the transport sector of 10% from biofuels. This report analyses and discusses the global impacts of this biofuel target on agricultural production, markets and land use, as simulated by three agricultural sector models, AGLINK-COSIMO, ESIM and CAPRI. The impacts identified include higher EU production of ethanol and biodiesel, and of the crops used to produce them, as well as more imports of both biofuels. Trade flows of biofuel feedstocks also change to reflect greater EU demand, including a significant increase in vegetable oil imports. However, as the extra demand is small in world market terms, the impact on world market prices is limited. With the EU biofuel target, global use of land for crop cultivation is higher by 5.2 million hectares. About one quarter is area within the EU, some of which would otherwise have left agriculture.

Assessing the impact of adaptive accessibility on the optimal transport policy implementation by using an integrated land-use/transport model for Madrid

Accessibility is an essential concept widely used to evaluate the impact of land-use and transport strategies in transport and urban planning. Accessibility is typically evaluated by using a transport model or a land-use model independently or successively without a feedback loop, thus neglecting the interaction effects between the two systems and the induced competition effects among opportunities due to accessibility improvements. More than a mere methodological curiosity, failure to account for land- use/transport interactions and the competition effect may result in large underestimation of the policy effects. With the recent development of land-use and transport interaction (LUTI) models, there is a growing interest in using these models to adequately measure accessibility and evaluate its impact. The current study joins this research stream by embedding an accessibility measure in a LUTI model with two main aims. The first aim is to account for adaptive accessibility, namely the adjustment of the potential accessibility due to the effect of competition among opportunities (e.g., workplaces) as a result of improved accessibility. LUTI models are particularly suitable for assessing adaptive accessibility because the competition factor is a function of the number of jobs, which is related to land-use attractiveness and the number of workers which is related, among other factors, to the transport demand. The second aim is to identify the optimal implementation scenario of policy measures on the basis of the potential and adaptive accessibility and analyse the results in terms of social welfare and accessibility. The metropolitan area of Madrid is used as a case-study and two transport policy instruments, namely a cordon toll and bus frequency increase, have been chosen for the simulation study in order to present the usefulness of the approach to urban planners and policy makers. The MARS model (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator) calibrated for Madrid was employed as the analysis tool. The impact of accessibility is embedded in the model through a social welfare function that includes not only costs and benefits to both road users and transport operators, but also costs and benefits for the government and society in general (external costs). An optimisation procedure is performed by the MARS model for maximizing the value of objective function in order to find the best (optimal) policy imp lementations intensity (i.e., price, frequency). Last, the two policy strategies are evaluated in terms of their accessibility. Results show that the accessibility with competition factor influences the optimal policy implementation level and also generates different results in terms of social welfare. In addition, mapping the difference between the potential and the adaptive accessibility indicators shows that the main changes occur in areas where there is a strong competition among land-use opportunities.