19 resultados para stochastic and dynamic analysis


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Introducing cover crops (CC) interspersed with intensively fertilized crops in rotation has the potential to reduce nitrate leaching. This paper evaluates various strategies involving CC between maize and compares the economic and environmental results with respect to a typical maize?fallow rotation. The comparison is performed through stochastic (Monte-Carlo) simulation models of farms? profits using probability distribution functions (pdfs) of yield and N fertilizer saving fitted with data collected from various field trials and pdfs of crop prices and the cost of fertilizer fitted from statistical sources. Stochastic dominance relationships are obtained to rank the most profitable strategies from a farm financial perspective. A two-criterion comparison scheme is proposed to rank alternative strategies based on farm profit and nitrate leaching levels, taking the baseline scenario as the maize?fallow rotation. The results show that when CC biomass is sold as forage instead of keeping it in the soil, greater profit and less leaching of nitrates are achieved than in the baseline scenario. While the fertilizer saving will be lower if CC is sold than if it is kept in the soil, the revenue obtained from the sale of the CC compensates for the reduced fertilizer savings. The results show that CC would perhaps provide a double dividend of greater profit and reduced nitrate leaching in intensive irrigated cropping systems in Mediterranean regions.

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In this paper, we address the problem of dynamic pricing to optimize the revenue coming from the sales of a limited inventory in a finite time-horizon. A priori, the demand is assumed to be unknown. The seller must learn on the fly. We first deal with the simplest case, involving only one class of product for sale. Furthermore the general situation is considered with a finite number of product classes for sale. In particular, a case in point is the sale of tickets for events related to culture and leisure; in this case, typically the tickets are sold months before the event, thus, uncertainty over actual demand levels is a very a common occurrence. We propose a heuristic strategy of adaptive dynamic pricing, based on experience gained from the past, taking into account, for each time period, the available inventory, the time remaining to reach the horizon, and the profit made in previous periods. In the computational simulations performed, the demand is updated dynamically based on the prices being offered, as well as on the remaining time and inventory. The simulations show a significant profit over the fixed-price strategy, confirming the practical usefulness of the proposed strategy. We develop a tool allowing us to test different dynamic pricing strategies designed to fit market conditions and seller s objectives, which will facilitate data analysis and decision-making in the face of the problem of dynamic pricing.

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In this paper a dynamic analysis of transnational shells is presented. The general linear shell theory is used in conjunction with additional shallow and curved plate approximations. In order to apply some type of extended Levy solution, the shell is assumed to be limited by a rectangular plan form, with two opposite edges simply supported (gable boundary conditions). First, the shells free vibrations are studied in the usual way, obtaining for each Fourier term the natural frequencies as solutions of a transcendental equation. However, solving these equations arises enormous computational difficulties. This paper deals specifically with this problem, trying to reduce its dimension by a discretization procedure. In the shell dynamic characteristics, namely the mass. The shell mass is lumped along a family of coordinate lines. Therefore, the natural frequencies for each harmonic term can be found from the solution of a typical matrix eigenvalues problem and standard numerical techniques can be applied. The shell response to forced vibrations, particularly to earthquake excitation, can be determined by using conventional procedure either in the time or in the frequency domain. Finally, extending the above procedure, any system of translational shells under dynamic loading can be studied. Then, by using matrix methods, a general computer program is written and applied to some illustrative examples. Numerical results has been obtained in two cases: circular cylindrical shell and box girder bridge.

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This paper presents a Levy-type solution for the natural frequencies of translational shells. A computer program in FORTRAN IV language corresponding to this solution is described. This direct solution is compared with some indirect solutions utilising Galerkin and Rayleigh methods. An extension to the study of forced vibrations is outlined.