Desintegración vertical en la industria del automóvil en España: un caso de estudio = Vertical disintegration in the automotive industry in Spain: a case study

En los años recientes se ha producido un rápido crecimiento del comercio internacional en productos semielaborados que son diseñados, producidos y ensamblados en diferentes localizaciones a lo largo de diferentes países, debido principalmente a los siguientes motivos: el desarrollo de las tecnologías de la información, la reducción de los costes de transporte, la liberalización de los mercados de capitales, la armonización de factores institucionales, la integración económica regional que implica la reducción y la eliminación de las barreras al comercio, el desarrollo económico de los países emergentes, el uso de economías de escala, así como una desregulación del comercio internacional. Todo ello ha incrementado la competencia a nivel mundial en los mercados y ha posibilitado a las compañías tener más facilidad de acceso a potenciales mercados, así como a la adquisición de capacidades y conocimientos en otros países y a la realización de alianzas estratégicas internacionales con terceros, creando un entorno con mayor incertidumbre y más exigente para las compañías que componen una industria, y que tiene consecuencias directas en las operaciones de las compañías y en la organización de su producción. Las compañías, para adaptarse, ser competitivas y beneficiarse de este nuevo escenario globalizado y más competitivo, han externalizado partes del proceso productivo hacia proveedores especializados, creando un nuevo mercado intermedio que divide el proceso productivo, anteriormente integrado en las compañías que conforman una industria, entre dos conjuntos de empresas especializadas en esa industria. Dicho proceso suele ocurrir conservando la industria en que tiene lugar, los mismos servicios y productos, la tecnología empleada y las compañías originales que la conformaban previamente a la desintegración vertical. Todo ello es así debido a que es beneficioso tanto para las compañías originales de la industria como para las nuevas compañías de este mercado intermedio por diversos motivos. La desintegración vertical en una industria tiene unas consecuencias que la transforman completamente, así como la forma de operar de las compañías que la integran, incluso para aquellas que permanecen verticalmente integradas. Una de las características más importantes de esta desintegración vertical en una industria es la posibilidad que tiene una compañía de adquirir a una tercera la primera parte del proceso productivo o un bien semielaborado, que posteriormente será finalizado por la compañía adquiriente con la práctica del outsourcing; así mismo, una compañía puede realizar la primera parte del proceso productivo o un bien semielaborado, que posteriormente será finalizado por una tercera compañía con la práctica de la fragmentación. El principal objetivo de la presente investigación es el estudio de los motivos, los facilitadores, los efectos, las consecuencias y los principales factores significativos, microeconómicos y macroeconómicos, que desencadenan o incrementan la práctica de la desintegración vertical en una industria; para ello, la investigación se divide en dos líneas completamente diferenciadas: el estudio de la práctica del outsourcing y, por otro lado, el estudio de la fragmentación por parte de las compañías que componen la industria del automóvil en España, puesto que se trata de una de las industrias más desintegradas verticalmente y fragmentadas, y este sector posee una gran importancia en la economía del país. En primer lugar, se hace una revisión de la literatura existente relativa a los siguientes aspectos: desintegración vertical, outsourcing, fragmentación, teoría del comercio internacional, historia de la industria del automóvil en España y el uso de las aglomeraciones geográficas y las tecnologías de la información en el sector del automóvil. La metodología empleada en cada uno de ellos ha sido diferente en función de la disponibilidad de los datos y del enfoque de investigación: los factores microeconómicos, utilizando el outsourcing, y los factores macroeconómicos, empleando la fragmentación. En el estudio del outsourcing, se usa un índice basado en las compras externas sobre el valor total de la producción. Así mismo, se estudia su correlación y significación con las variables económicas más importantes que definen a una compañía del sector del automóvil, utilizando la técnica estadística de regresión lineal. Aquellas variables relacionadas con la competencia en el mercado, la externalización de las actividades de menor valor añadido y el incremento de la modularización de las actividades de la cadena de valor, han resultado significativas con la práctica del outsourcing. En el estudio de la fragmentación se seleccionan un conjunto de factores macroeconómicos, comúnmente usados en este tipo de investigaciones, relacionados con las principales magnitudes económicas de un país, y un conjunto de factores macroeconómicos, no comúnmente usados en este tipo de investigaciones, relacionados con la libertad económica y el comercio internacional de un país. Se emplea un modelo de regresión logística para identificar qué factores son significativos en la práctica de la fragmentación. De entre todos los factores usados en el modelo, los relacionados con las economías de escala y los costes de servicio han resultado significativos. Los resultados obtenidos de los test estadísticos realizados en el modelo de regresión logística han resultado satisfactorios; por ello, el modelo propuesto de regresión logística puede ser considerado sólido, fiable y versátil; además, acorde con la realidad. De los resultados obtenidos en el estudio del outsourcing y de la fragmentación, combinados conjuntamente con el estado del arte, se concluye que el principal factor que desencadena la desintegración vertical en la industria del automóvil es la competencia en el mercado de vehículos. Cuanto mayor es la demanda de vehículos, más se reducen los beneficios y la rentabilidad para sus fabricantes. Estos, para ser competitivos, diferencian sus productos de la competencia centrándose en las actividades que mayor valor añadido aportan al producto final, externalizando las actividades de menor valor añadido a proveedores especializados, e incrementando la modularidad de las actividades de la cadena de valor. Las compañías de la industria del automóvil se especializan en alguna o varias de estas actividades modularizadas que, combinadas con el uso de factores facilitadores como las economías de escala, las tecnologías de la información, las ventajas de la globalización económica y la aglomeración geográfica de una industria, incrementan y motivan la desintegración vertical en la industria del automóvil, desencadenando la coespecialización en dos sectores claramente diferenciados: el sector de fabricantes de vehículos y el sector de proveedores especializados. Cada uno de ellos se especializa en unas actividades y en unos productos o servicios específicos de la cadena de valor, lo cual genera las siguientes consecuencias en la industria del automóvil: se reducen los costes de transacción en los productos o servicios intercambiados; se incrementan la relación de dependencia entre fabricantes de vehículos y proveedores especializados, provocando un aumento en la cooperación y la coordinación, acelerando el proceso de aprendizaje, posibilitando a ambos adquirir nuevas capacidades, conocimientos y recursos, y creando nuevas ventajas competitivas para ambos; por último, las barreras de entrada a la industria del automóvil y el número de compañías se ven alteradas cambiando su estructura. Como futura línea de investigación, los fabricantes de vehículos tenderán a centrarse en investigar, diseñar y comercializar el producto o servicio, delegando el ensamblaje en manos de nuevos especialistas en la materia, el contract manufacturer; por ello, sería conveniente investigar qué factores motivantes o facilitadores existen y qué consecuencias tendría la implantación de los contract manufacturer en la industria del automóvil. 1.1. ABSTRACT In recent years there has been a rapid growth of international trade in semi-finished products designed, produced and assembled in different locations across different countries, mainly due to the following reasons: development of information technologies, reduction of transportation costs, liberalisation of capital markets, harmonisation of institutional factors, regional economic integration, which involves the reduction and elimination of trade barriers, economic development of emerging countries, use of economies of scale and deregulation of international trade. All these factors have increased competition in markets at a global level and have allowed companies to gain easier access to potential markets and to the acquisition of skills and knowledge in other countries, as well as to the completion of international strategic alliances with third parties, thus creating a more demanding and uncertain environment for these companies constituting an industry, which has a direct impact on the companies' operations and the organization of their production. In order to adapt, be competitive and benefit from this new and more competitive global scenario, companies have outsourced some parts of their production process to specialist suppliers, generating a new intermediate market which divides the production process, previously integrated in the companies that made up the industry, into two sets of companies specialized in that industry. This process often occurs while preserving the industry where it takes place, its same services and products, the technology used and the original companies that formed it prior to vertical disintegration. This is because it is beneficial for both the industry's original companies and the companies belonging to this new intermediate market, for various reasons. Vertical disintegration has consequences which completely transform the industry where it takes place as well as the modus operandi of the companies that are part of it, even of those who remain vertically integrated. One of the most important features of vertical disintegration of an industry is the possibility for a company to acquire from a third one the first part of the production process or a semi-finished product, which will then be finished by the acquiring company through the practice of outsourcing; also, a company can perform the first part of the production process or a semi-finish product, which will then be completed by a third company through the practice of fragmentation. The main objective of this research is to study the motives, facilitators, effects, consequences and major significant microeconomic and macroeconomic factors that trigger or increase the practice of vertical disintegration in a certain industry; in order to do so, research is divided into two completely differentiated lines: on the one hand, the study of the practise of outsourcing and, on the other, the study of fragmentation by companies constituting the automotive industry in Spain, since this is one of the most vertically disintegrated and fragmented industries and this particular sector is of major significance in this country's economy. First, a review is made of the existing literature, on the following aspects: vertical disintegration, outsourcing, fragmentation, international trade theory, history of the automobile industry in Spain and the use of geographical agglomeration and information technologies in the automotive sector. The methodology used for each of these aspects has been different depending on the availability of data and the research approach: the microeconomic factors, using outsourcing, and the macroeconomic factors, using fragmentation. In the study on outsourcing, an index is used based on external purchases in relation to the total value of production. Likewise, their significance and correlation with the major economic variables that define an automotive company are studied, using the statistical technique of linear regression. Variables related to market competition, outsourcing of lowest value-added activities and increased modularisation of the activities of the value chain have turned out to be significant with the practice of outsourcing. In the study of fragmentation, a set of macroeconomic factors commonly used for this type of research, is selected, related to the main economic indicators of a country, as well as a set of macroeconomic factors, not commonly used for this type of research, which are related to economic freedom and the international trade of a certain country. A logistic regression model is used to identify which factors are significant in the practice of fragmentation. Amongst all factors used in the model, those related to economies of scale and service costs have turned out to be significant. The results obtained from the statistical tests performed on the logistic regression model have been successful; hence, the suggested logistic regression model can be considered to be solid, reliable and versatile; likewise, it is in line with reality. From the results obtained in the study of outsourcing and fragmentation, combined with the state of the art, it is concluded that the main factor that triggers vertical disintegration in the automotive industry is competition within the vehicle market. The greater the vehicle demand, the lower the earnings and profitability for manufacturers. These, in order to be competitive, differentiate their products from the competition by focusing on those activities that contribute with the highest added value to the final product, outsourcing the lower valueadded activities to specialist suppliers, and increasing the modularity of the activities of the value chain. Companies in the automotive industry specialize in one or more of these modularised activities which, combined with the use of enabling factors such as economies of scale, information technologies, the advantages of economic globalisation and the geographical agglomeration of an industry, increase and encourage vertical disintegration in the automotive industry, triggering co-specialization in two clearly distinct sectors: the sector of vehicle manufacturers and the specialist suppliers sector. Each of them specializes in certain activities and specific products or services of the value chain, generating the following consequences in the automotive industry: reduction of transaction costs of the goods or services exchanged; growth of the relationship of dependency between vehicle manufacturers and specialist suppliers, which causes an increase in cooperation and coordination, accelerates the learning process, enables both to acquire new skills, knowledge and resources, and creates new competitive advantages for both; finally, barriers to entry the automotive industry and the number of companies are altered, changing their structure. As a future line of research, vehicle manufacturers will tend to focus on researching, designing and marketing the product or service, delegating the assembly in the hands of new specialists in the field, the contract manufacturer; for this reason, it would be useful to investigate what motivating or facilitating factors exist in this respect and what consequences would the implementation of contract manufacturers have in the automotive industry.

Relationship among research collaboration, number of documents and number of citations. A case study in Spanish computer science production in 2000-2009.

This paper analyzes the relationship among research collaboration, number of documents and number of citations of computer science research activity. It analyzes the number of documents and citations and how they vary by number of authors. They are also analyzed (according to author set cardinality) under different circumstances, that is, when documents are written in different types of collaboration, when documents are published in different document types, when documents are published in different computer science subdisciplines, and, finally, when documents are published by journals with different impact factor quartiles. To investigate the above relationships, this paper analyzes the publications listed in the Web of Science and produced by active Spanish university professors between 2000 and 2009, working in the computer science field. Analyzing all documents, we show that the highest percentage of documents are published by three authors, whereas single-authored documents account for the lowest percentage. By number of citations, there is no positive association between the author cardinality and citation impact. Statistical tests show that documents written by two authors receive more citations per document and year than documents published by more authors. In contrast, results do not show statistically significant differences between documents published by two authors and one author. The research findings suggest that international collaboration results on average in publications with higher citation rates than national and institutional collaborations. We also find differences regarding citation rates between journals and conferences, across different computer science subdisciplines and journal quartiles as expected. Finally, our impression is that the collaborative level (number of authors per document) will increase in the coming years, and documents published by three or four authors will be the trend in computer science literature.

Foreigner? Want to study in Spain? The integration process at universities

The student exchange programs being carried out at universities for over 50 years, have led to changes in the institutions, which had to adapt to accommodate these students. Despite those changes, the integration of foreign students not coming from the aforementioned exchange programs that come to our country to study at the University has been neglected. These students face many barriers (language, cultural and origin customs mainly), so a clear and detailed information would be highly desirable in order to facilitate the necessary arrangements This study aims to show the deficiencies in the integration process and hosting programs faced by a foreign student at University. The study is performed by means of an analysis of statistical data from the Polytechnic University of Madrid and the Civil Engineering School over the last 12 school years (1999 - 2000 to 2010 - 2011), as well as surveys and interviews with some of these students. The study is enhanced with the analysis of the measures and integration methods of the various minorities, which had been implemented by the foremost public universities in Spain, as well as other public and private universities abroad. It illustrates the existing backlog at the Spanish universities with regards to supporting the integration of diversity among foreign students, providing data concerning the growth of such population and its impact at the university, and on the institutions in particular. In an increasingly globalized world, we must understand and facilitate the integration of minorities at University, supplying them, from the first day, and before the enrollment process, the essential elements that will allow their adequate adaptation to the educational process at University. It concludes by identifying the main subjects that need to be tackled to endorse such integration.

Study about the Problem of Dropping of Subjects by Students During an Academinc Year at the University.

In university studies, it is not unusual for students to drop some of the subjects they have enrolled in for the academic year. They start by not attending lectures, sometimes due to neglect or carelessness, or because they find the subject too difficult, this means that they lose the continuity in the topics that the professor follows. If they try to attend again they discover that they hardly understand anything and become discouraged and so decide to give up attending lectures and study on their own. However some fail to turn up to do their final exams and the failure rate of those who actually do the exams is high. The problem is that this is not only the case with one specific subject, but it is often the same with many subjects. The result is that students arent’s productive enough, wasting time and also prolonging their years of study which entails a great cost for families. Degree courses structured to be conducted and completed in three academic courses, it may in fact take up to an average of six or more academic courses. In this paper, we have studied this problem, which apart from the waste of money and time, produces frustration in the student, who finds that he has not been able to achieve what he had proposed at the beginning of the course. It is quite common, to find students who do not even pass nor 50% of the subjects they had enrolled in for the academic year. If this happens repeatedly to a student, it can be the point when he considers dropping out altogether. This is also a concern for the universities, especially in the early courses. In our experience as professors, we have found that students, who attend lectures regularly and follow the explanations, approach the final exams with confidence and rarely fail the subject. In this proposal we present some techniques and methods carried out to solve in possible, the problem of lack of attendance to lectures. This involves "rewarding students for their assistance and participation in lectures". Rewarding assistance with a "prize" that counts for the final mark on the subject and involving more participation in the development of lectures. We believe that we have to teach students to use the lectures as part of their learning in a non-passive way. We consider the professor's work as fundamental in terms of how to convey the usefulness of these topics explained and the applications that they will have for their professional life in the future. In this way the student see for himself the use and importance of what he is learning. When his participation is required, he will feel more involved and confident participating in the educational system. Finally we present statistical results of studies carried out on different degrees and on different subjects over two consecutive years. In the first year we assessed only the final exams without considering the students attendance, or participation. In the second year, we have applied the techniques and methods proposed here. In addition we have compared the two ways of assessing subjects.

Analysis of spontaneous MEG activity in mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease using spectral entropies and statistical complexity measures

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common cause of dementia. Over the last few years, a considerable effort has been devoted to exploring new biomarkers. Nevertheless, a better understanding of brain dynamics is still required to optimize therapeutic strategies. In this regard, the characterization of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is crucial, due to the high conversion rate from MCI to AD. However, only a few studies have focused on the analysis of magnetoencephalographic (MEG) rhythms to characterize AD and MCI. In this study, we assess the ability of several parameters derived from information theory to describe spontaneous MEG activity from 36 AD patients, 18 MCI subjects and 26 controls. Three entropies (Shannon, Tsallis and Rényi entropies), one disequilibrium measure (based on Euclidean distance ED) and three statistical complexities (based on Lopez Ruiz–Mancini–Calbet complexity LMC) were used to estimate the irregularity and statistical complexity of MEG activity. Statistically significant differences between AD patients and controls were obtained with all parameters (p < 0.01). In addition, statistically significant differences between MCI subjects and controls were achieved by ED and LMC (p < 0.05). In order to assess the diagnostic ability of the parameters, a linear discriminant analysis with a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure was applied. The accuracies reached 83.9% and 65.9% to discriminate AD and MCI subjects from controls, respectively. Our findings suggest that MCI subjects exhibit an intermediate pattern of abnormalities between normal aging and AD. Furthermore, the proposed parameters provide a new description of brain dynamics in AD and MCI.

Statistical models for short-term wind power ramp forecasting

La predicción de energía eólica ha desempeñado en la última década un papel fundamental en el aprovechamiento de este recurso renovable, ya que permite reducir el impacto que tiene la naturaleza fluctuante del viento en la actividad de diversos agentes implicados en su integración, tales como el operador del sistema o los agentes del mercado eléctrico. Los altos niveles de penetración eólica alcanzados recientemente por algunos países han puesto de manifiesto la necesidad de mejorar las predicciones durante eventos en los que se experimenta una variación importante de la potencia generada por un parque o un conjunto de ellos en un tiempo relativamente corto (del orden de unas pocas horas). Estos eventos, conocidos como rampas, no tienen una única causa, ya que pueden estar motivados por procesos meteorológicos que se dan en muy diferentes escalas espacio-temporales, desde el paso de grandes frentes en la macroescala a procesos convectivos locales como tormentas. Además, el propio proceso de conversión del viento en energía eléctrica juega un papel relevante en la ocurrencia de rampas debido, entre otros factores, a la relación no lineal que impone la curva de potencia del aerogenerador, la desalineación de la máquina con respecto al viento y la interacción aerodinámica entre aerogeneradores. En este trabajo se aborda la aplicación de modelos estadísticos a la predicción de rampas a muy corto plazo. Además, se investiga la relación de este tipo de eventos con procesos atmosféricos en la macroescala. Los modelos se emplean para generar predicciones de punto a partir del modelado estocástico de una serie temporal de potencia generada por un parque eólico. Los horizontes de predicción considerados van de una a seis horas. Como primer paso, se ha elaborado una metodología para caracterizar rampas en series temporales. La denominada función-rampa está basada en la transformada wavelet y proporciona un índice en cada paso temporal. Este índice caracteriza la intensidad de rampa en base a los gradientes de potencia experimentados en un rango determinado de escalas temporales. Se han implementado tres tipos de modelos predictivos de cara a evaluar el papel que juega la complejidad de un modelo en su desempeño: modelos lineales autorregresivos (AR), modelos de coeficientes variables (VCMs) y modelos basado en redes neuronales (ANNs). Los modelos se han entrenado en base a la minimización del error cuadrático medio y la configuración de cada uno de ellos se ha determinado mediante validación cruzada. De cara a analizar la contribución del estado macroescalar de la atmósfera en la predicción de rampas, se ha propuesto una metodología que permite extraer, a partir de las salidas de modelos meteorológicos, información relevante para explicar la ocurrencia de estos eventos. La metodología se basa en el análisis de componentes principales (PCA) para la síntesis de la datos de la atmósfera y en el uso de la información mutua (MI) para estimar la dependencia no lineal entre dos señales. Esta metodología se ha aplicado a datos de reanálisis generados con un modelo de circulación general (GCM) de cara a generar variables exógenas que posteriormente se han introducido en los modelos predictivos. Los casos de estudio considerados corresponden a dos parques eólicos ubicados en España. Los resultados muestran que el modelado de la serie de potencias permitió una mejora notable con respecto al modelo predictivo de referencia (la persistencia) y que al añadir información de la macroescala se obtuvieron mejoras adicionales del mismo orden. Estas mejoras resultaron mayores para el caso de rampas de bajada. Los resultados también indican distintos grados de conexión entre la macroescala y la ocurrencia de rampas en los dos parques considerados. Abstract One of the main drawbacks of wind energy is that it exhibits intermittent generation greatly depending on environmental conditions. Wind power forecasting has proven to be an effective tool for facilitating wind power integration from both the technical and the economical perspective. Indeed, system operators and energy traders benefit from the use of forecasting techniques, because the reduction of the inherent uncertainty of wind power allows them the adoption of optimal decisions. Wind power integration imposes new challenges as higher wind penetration levels are attained. Wind power ramp forecasting is an example of such a recent topic of interest. The term ramp makes reference to a large and rapid variation (1-4 hours) observed in the wind power output of a wind farm or portfolio. Ramp events can be motivated by a broad number of meteorological processes that occur at different time/spatial scales, from the passage of large-scale frontal systems to local processes such as thunderstorms and thermally-driven flows. Ramp events may also be conditioned by features related to the wind-to-power conversion process, such as yaw misalignment, the wind turbine shut-down and the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines of a wind farm (wake effect). This work is devoted to wind power ramp forecasting, with special focus on the connection between the global scale and ramp events observed at the wind farm level. The framework of this study is the point-forecasting approach. Time series based models were implemented for very short-term prediction, this being characterised by prediction horizons up to six hours ahead. As a first step, a methodology to characterise ramps within a wind power time series was proposed. The so-called ramp function is based on the wavelet transform and it provides a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step. The underlying idea is that ramps are characterised by high power output gradients evaluated under different time scales. A number of state-of-the-art time series based models were considered, namely linear autoregressive (AR) models, varying-coefficient models (VCMs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This allowed us to gain insights into how the complexity of the model contributes to the accuracy of the wind power time series modelling. The models were trained in base of a mean squared error criterion and the final set-up of each model was determined through cross-validation techniques. In order to investigate the contribution of the global scale into wind power ramp forecasting, a methodological proposal to identify features in atmospheric raw data that are relevant for explaining wind power ramp events was presented. The proposed methodology is based on two techniques: principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric data compression and mutual information (MI) for assessing non-linear dependence between variables. The methodology was applied to reanalysis data generated with a general circulation model (GCM). This allowed for the elaboration of explanatory variables meaningful for ramp forecasting that were utilized as exogenous variables by the forecasting models. The study covered two wind farms located in Spain. All the models outperformed the reference model (the persistence) during both ramp and non-ramp situations. Adding atmospheric information had a noticeable impact on the forecasting performance, specially during ramp-down events. Results also suggested different levels of connection between the ramp occurrence at the wind farm level and the global scale.

Estudio teórico de propiedades termodinámicas y optoelectronicas de nuevos materiales fotovoltaicos de banda intermedia = Theoretical study of thermodynamic and optoelectronic properties of new intermediate band photovoltaic materials

Los materiales de banda intermedia han atraido la atención de la comunidad científica en el campo de la energía solar fotovoltaica en los últimos años. Sin embargo, con el objetivo de entender los fundamentos de las células solares de banda intermedia, se debe llevar a cabo un estudio profundo de la características de los materiales. Esto se puede hacer mediante un modelo teórico usando Primeros Principios. A partir de este enfoque se pueden obtener resultados tales como la estructura electrónica y propiedades ópticas, entre otras, de los semiconductores fuertemente dopados y sus precursores. Con el fin de desentrañar las estructuras de estos sistemas electrónicos, esta tesis presenta un estudio termodinámico y optoelectrónico de varios materiales fotovoltaicos. Específicamente se caracterizaron los materiales avanzados de banda intermedia y sus precursores. El estudio se hizo en términos de caracterización teórica de la estructura electrónica, la energética del sistema, entre otros. Además la estabilidad se obtuvo usando configuraciones adaptadas a la simetría del sistema y basado en la combinatoria. Las configuraciones de los sitios ocupados por defectos permiten obtener información sobre un espacio de configuraciones donde las posiciones de los dopantes sustituidos se basan en la simetría del sólido cristalino. El resultado puede ser tratado usando elementos de termodinámica estadística y da información de la estabilidad de todo el espacio simétrico. Además se estudiaron otras características importantes de los semiconductores de base. En concreto, el análisis de las interacciones de van der Waals fueron incluidas en el semiconductor en capas SnS2, y el grado de inversión en el caso de las espinelas [M]In2S4. En este trabajo además realizamos una descripción teórica exhaustiva del sistema CdTe:Bi. Este material de banda-intermedia muestra características que son distintas a las de los otros materiales estudiados. También se analizó el Zn como agente modulador de la posición de las sub-bandas prohibidas en el material de banda-intermedia CuGaS2:Ti. Analizándose además la viabilidad termodinámica de la formación de este compuesto. Finalmente, también se describió el GaN:Cr como material de banda intermedia, en la estructura zinc-blenda y en wurtztite, usando configuraciones de sitios ocupados de acuerdo a la simetría del sistema cristalino del semiconductor de base. Todos los resultados, siempre que fue posible, fueron comparados con los resultados experimentales. ABSTRACT The intermediate-band materials have attracted the attention of the scientific community in the field of the photovoltaics in recent years. Nevertheless, in order to understand the intermediate-band solar cell fundamentals, a profound study of the characteristics of the materials is required. This can be done using theoretical modelling from first-principles. The electronic structure and optical properties of heavily doped semiconductors and their precursor semiconductors are, among others, results that can be obtained from this approach. In order to unravel the structures of these crystalline systems, this thesis presents a thermodynamic and optoelectronic study of several photovoltaic materials. Specifically advanced intermediate-band materials and their precursor semiconductors were characterized. The study was made in terms of theoretical characterization of the electronic structure, energetics among others. The stability was obtained using site-occupancy-disorder configurations adapted to the symmetry of the system and based on combinatorics. The site-occupancy-disorder method allows the formation of a configurational space of substitutional dopant positions based on the symmetry of the crystalline solid. The result, that can be treated using statistical thermodynamics, gives information of the stability of the whole space of symmetry of the crystalline lattice. Furthermore, certain other important characteristics of host semiconductors were studied. Specifically, the van der Waal interactions were included in the SnS2 layered semiconductor, and the inversion degree in cases of [M]In2S4 spinels. In this work we also carried out an exhaustive theoretical description of the CdTe:Bi system. This intermediate-band material shows characteristics that are distinct from those of the other studied intermediate-band materials. In addition, Zn was analysed as a modulator of the positions of the sub-band gaps in the CuGaS2:Ti intermediate-band material. The thermodynamic feasibility of the formation of this compound was also carried out. Finally GaN:Cr intermediate-band material was also described both in the zinc-blende and the wurtztite type structures, using the symmetry-adapted-space of configurations. All results, whenever possible, were compared with experimental results.

Non-destructive measurement techniques for taper equation development: a study case in the Spanish Northern Iberian Range

In recent years, the technology for measuring the diameter and height of standing trees has improved significantly. These enhancements allow estimation of the volume of standing trees using stem taper equations, which traditionally have been constructed with data from felled trees, in an accurate and economically feasible way. A nondestructive method was evaluated with data from 38 pines and was validated with data from another 38 pines, both in the Northern Iberian Range (Spain). The electronic dendrometer Criterion RD1000 (Laser Technology Inc.) and the laser hypsometer TruPulse (Laser Technology Inc.) were used due to their accuracy and interoperability. The methodology was valid (unbiased and precise) measuring from a distance similar to the height of the tree. In this distance, statistical criteria and plots based on the residuals showed no clear advantage in volume estimation with models fitted with data from destructive methods against models fitted with data from the proposed non-destructive technique. This methodology can be considered useful for individual volume estimation and for developing taper equations.

Statistical characterization of soft tissue inelastic parameters and application to the material failure of the aortic ach

Caracterización de los procesos de disipación mecánica basándose en la microestructura de los tejidos blandos. We present a continuous damage model with regularized softening (smeared crack models) for fiber reinforced soft tissues. Material parameters of the continuous model derive from the mesoscopic scale. In the mesoscopic scale continuum is considered as a collagenous fibrilreinforced composite. We want to study the continnumlevel response as a function of the nanoscale properties of the collagen and the adherent forces between the tropocollagen molecules.

Drivers in adopting adaptation strategies to face increased water scarcity in agriculture. A case study in Doñana (Spain) and Makueni (Kenya)

La agricultura es uno de los sectores más afectados por el cambio climático. A pesar de haber demostrado a lo largo de la historia una gran capacidad para adaptarse a nuevas situaciones, hoy en día la agricultura se enfrenta a nuevos retos tales como satisfacer un elevado crecimiento en la demanda de alimentos, desarrollar una agricultura sostenible con el medio ambiente y reducir las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. El potencial de adaptación debe ser definido en un contexto que incluya el comportamiento humano, ya que éste juega un papel decisivo en la implementación final de las medidas. Por este motivo, y para desarrollar correctamente políticas que busquen influir en el comportamiento de los agricultores para fomentar la adaptación a estas nuevas condiciones, es necesario entender previamente los procesos de toma de decisiones a nivel individual o de explotación, así como los efectos de los factores que determinan las barreras o motivaciones de la implementación de medidas. Esta Tesis doctoral trata de profundizar en el análisis de factores que influyen en la toma de decisiones de los agricultores para adoptar estrategias de adaptación al cambio climático. Este trabajo revisa la literatura actual y desarrolla un marco metodológico a nivel local y regional. Dos casos de estudio a nivel local (Doñana, España y Makueni, Kenia) han sido llevados a cabo con el fin de explorar el comportamiento de los agricultores hacia la adaptación. Estos casos de estudio representan regiones con notables diferencias en climatología, impactos del cambio climático, barreras para la adaptación y niveles de desarrollo e influencia de las instituciones públicas y privadas en la agricultura. Mientras el caso de estudio de Doñana representa un ejemplo de problemas asociados al uso y escasez del agua donde se espera que se agraven en el futuro, el caso de estudio de Makueni ejemplifica una zona fuertemente amenazada por las predicciones de cambio climático, donde adicionalmente la falta de infraestructura y la tecnología juegan un papel crucial para la implementación de la adaptación. El caso de estudio a nivel regional trata de generalizar en África el comportamiento de los agricultores sobre la implementación de medidas. El marco metodológico que se ha seguido en este trabajo abarca una amplia gama de enfoques y métodos para la recolección y análisis de datos. Los métodos utilizados para la toma de datos incluyen la implementación de encuestas, entrevistas, talleres con grupos de interés, grupos focales de discusión, revisión de estudios previos y bases de datos públicas. Los métodos analíticos incluyen métodos estadísticos, análisis multi‐criterio para la toma de decisiones, modelos de optimización de uso del suelo y un índice compuesto calculado a través de indicadores. Los métodos estadísticos se han utilizado con el fin de evaluar la influencia de los factores socio‐económicos y psicológicos sobre la adopción de medidas de adaptación. Dentro de estos métodos se incluyen regresiones logísticas, análisis de componentes principales y modelos de ecuaciones estructurales. Mientras que el análisis multi‐criterio se ha utilizado con el fin de evaluar las opciones de adaptación de acuerdo a las opiniones de las diferentes partes interesadas, el modelo de optimización ha tenido como fin analizar la combinación óptima de medidas de adaptación. El índice compuesto se ha utilizado para evaluar a nivel regional la implementación de medidas de adaptación en África. En general, los resultados del estudio ponen de relieve la gran importancia de considerar diferentes escalas espaciales a la hora de evaluar la implementación de medidas de adaptación al cambio climático. El comportamiento de los agricultores es diferente entre lugares considerados a una escala local relativamente pequeña, por lo que la generalización de los patrones del comportamiento a escalas regionales o globales resulta relativamente compleja. Los resultados obtenidos han permitido identificar factores determinantes tanto socioeconómicos como psicológicos y calcular su efecto sobre la adopción de medidas de adaptación. Además han proporcionado una mejor comprensión del distinto papel que desempeñan los cinco tipos de capital (natural, físico, financiero, social y humano) en la implementación de estrategias de adaptación. Con este trabajo se proporciona información de gran interés en los procesos de desarrollo de políticas destinadas a mejorar el apoyo de la sociedad a tomar medidas contra el cambio climático. Por último, en el análisis a nivel regional se desarrolla un índice compuesto que muestra la probabilidad de adoptar medidas de adaptación en las regiones de África y se analizan las causas que determinan dicha probabilidad de adopción de medidas. ABSTRACT Agriculture is and will continue to be one of the sectors most affected by climate change. Despite having demonstrated throughout history a great ability to adapt, agriculture today faces new challenges such as meeting growing food demands, developing sustainable agriculture and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation policies planned on global, regional or local scales are ultimately implemented in decision‐making processes at the farm or individual level so adaptation potentials have to be set within the context of individual behaviour and regional institutions. Policy instruments can play a formative role in the adoption of such policies by addressing incentives/disincentives that influence farmer’s behaviour. Hence understanding farm‐level decision‐making processes and the influence of determinants of adoption is crucial when designing policies aimed at fostering adoption. This thesis seeks to analyse the factors that influence decision‐making by farmers in relation to the uptake of adaptation options. This work reviews the current knowledge and develops a methodological framework at local and regional level. Whilst the case studies at the local level are conducted with the purpose of exploring farmer’s behaviour towards adaptation the case study at the regional level attempts to up‐scale and generalise theory on adoption of farmlevel adaptation options. The two case studies at the local level (Doñana, Spain and Makueni, Kenya) encompass areas with different; climates, impacts of climate change, adaptation constraints and limits, levels of development, institutional support for agriculture and influence from public and private institutions. Whilst the Doñana Case Study represents an area plagued with water‐usage issues, set to be aggravated further by climate change, Makueni Case study exemplifies an area decidedly threatened by climate change where a lack of infrastructure and technology plays a crucial role in the uptake of adaptation options. The proposed framework is based on a wide range of approaches for collecting and analysing data. The approaches used for data collection include the implementation of surveys, interviews, stakeholder workshops, focus group discussions, a review of previous case studies, and public databases. The analytical methods include statistical approaches, multi criteria analysis for decision‐making, land use optimisation models, and a composite index based on public databases. Statistical approaches are used to assess the influence of socio‐economic and psychological factors on the adoption or support for adaptation measures. The statistical approaches used are logistic regressions, principal component analysis and structural equation modelling. Whilst a multi criteria analysis approach is used to evaluate adaptation options according to the different perspectives of stakeholders, the optimisation model analyses the optimal combination of adaptation options. The composite index is developed to assess adoption of adaptation measures in Africa. Overall, the results of the study highlight the importance of considering various scales when assessing adoption of adaptation measures to climate change. As farmer’s behaviour varies at a local scale there is elevated complexity when generalising behavioural patterns for farmers at regional or global scales. The results identify and estimate the effect of most relevant socioeconomic and psychological factors that influence adoption of adaptation measures to climate change. They also provide a better understanding of the role of the five types of capital (natural, physical, financial, social, and human) on the uptake of farm‐level adaptation options. These assessments of determinants help to explain adoption of climate change measures and provide helpful information in order to design polices aimed at enhancing societal support for adaptation policies. Finally the analysis at the regional level develops a composite index which suggests the likelihood of the regions in Africa to adopt farm‐level adaptation measures and analyses the main causes of this likelihood of adoption.

Fishing effort control regulations influence on stability, safety and operability of small fishing vessels: study of a series of stability related accidents occurred in Spain between 2004 and 2007

Entre los años 2004 y 2007 se hundieron por problemas de estabilidad cinco pesqueros españoles de pequeña eslora, de características parecidas, de relativamente poca edad, que habían sido construidos en un intervalo de pocos años. La mayoría de los tripulantes de esos pesqueros fallecieron o desaparecieron en esos accidentes. Este conjunto de accidentes tuvo bastante repercusión social y mediática. Entre ingenieros navales y marinos del sector de la pesca se relacionó estos accidentes con los condicionantes a los diseños de los pesqueros impuestos por la normativa de control de esfuerzo pesquero. Los accidentes fueron investigados y publicados sus correspondientes informes; en ellos no se exploró esta supuesta relación. Esta tesis pretende investigar la relación entre esos accidentes y los cambios de la normativa de esfuerzo pesquero. En la introducción se expone la normativa de control de esfuerzo pesquero analizada, se presentan datos sobre la estructura de la flota pesquera en España y su accidentalidad, y se detallan los criterios de estabilidad manejados durante el trabajo, explicando su relación con la seguridad de los pesqueros. Seguidamente se realiza un análisis estadístico de la siniestralidad en el sector de la pesca para establecer si el conjunto de accidentes estudiados supone una anomalía, o si por el contrario el conjunto de estos accidentes no es relevante desde el punto de vista estadístico. Se analiza la siniestralidad a partir de diversas bases de datos de buques pesqueros en España y se concluye que el conjunto de accidentes estudiados supone una anomalía estadística, ya que la probabilidad de ocurrencia de los cinco sucesos es muy baja considerando la frecuencia estimada de pérdidas de buques por estabilidad en el subsector de la flota pesquera en el que se encuadran los cinco buques perdidos. A continuación el trabajo se centra en la comparación de los buques accidentados con los buques pesqueros dados de baja para construir aquellos, según exige la normativa de control de esfuerzo pesquero; a estos últimos buques nos referiremos como “predecesores” de los buques accidentados. Se comparan las dimensiones principales de cada buque y de su predecesor, resultando que los buques accidentados comparten características de diseño comunes que son sensiblemente diferentes en los buques predecesores, y enlazando dichas características de diseño con los requisitos de la nueva normativa de control del esfuerzo pesquero bajo la que se construyeron estos barcos. Ello permite establecer una relación entre los accidentes y el mencionado cambio normativo. A continuación se compara el margen con que se cumplían los criterios reglamentarios de estabilidad entre los buques accidentados y los predecesores, encontrándose que en cuatro de los cinco casos los predecesores cumplían los criterios de estabilidad con mayor holgura que los buques accidentados. Los resultados obtenidos en este punto permiten establecer una relación entre el cambio de normativa de esfuerzo pesquero y la estabilidad de los buques. Los cinco buques accidentados cumplían con los criterios reglamentarios de estabilidad en vigor, lo que cuestiona la relación entre esos criterios y la seguridad. Por ello se extiende la comparativa entre pesqueros a dos nuevos campos relacionados con la estabilidad y la seguridad delos buques: • Movimientos a bordo (operatividad del buque), y • Criterios de estabilidad en condiciones meteorológicas adversas El estudio de la operatividad muestra que los buques accidentados tenían, en general, una mayor operatividad que sus predecesores, contrariamente a lo que sucedía con el cumplimiento de los criterios reglamentarios de estabilidad. Por último, se comprueba el desempeño de los diez buques en dos criterios específicos de estabilidad en caso de mal tiempo: el criterio IMO de viento y balance intenso, y un criterio de estabilidad de nueva generación, incluyendo la contribución original del autor de considerar agua en cubierta. Las tendencias observadas en estas dos comparativas son opuestas, lo que permite cuestionar la validez del último criterio sin un control exhaustivo de los parámetros de su formulación, poniendo de manifiesto la necesidad de más investigaciones sobre ese criterio antes de su adopción para uso regulatorio. El conjunto de estos resultados permite obtener una serie de conclusiones en la comparativa entre ambos conjuntos de buques pesqueros. Si bien los resultados de este trabajo no muestran que la aprobación de la nueva normativa de esfuerzo pesquero haya significado una merma general de seguridad en sectores enteros de la flota pesquera, sí se concluye que permitió que algunos diseños de buques pesqueros, posiblemente en busca de la mayor eficiencia compatible con dicha normativa, quedaran con una estabilidad precaria, poniendo de manifiesto que la relación entre seguridad y criterios de estabilidad no es unívoca, y la necesidad de que éstos evolucionen y se adapten a los nuevos diseños de buques pesqueros para continuar garantizando su seguridad. También se concluye que la estabilidad es un aspecto transversal del diseño de los buques, por lo que cualquier reforma normativa que afecte al diseño de los pesqueros o su forma de operar debería estar sujeta a evaluación por parte de las autoridades responsables de la seguridad marítima con carácter previo a su aprobación. ABSTRACT Between 2004 and 2007 five small Spanish fishing vessels sank in stability related accidents. These vessels had similar characteristics, had relatively short age, and had been built in a period of a few years. Most crewmembers of these five vessels died or disappeared in those accidents. This set of accidents had significant social and media impact. Among naval architects and seamen of the fishing sector these accidents were related to the design constraints imposed by the fishing control effort regulations. The accidents were investigated and the official reports issued; this alleged relationship was not explored. This thesis aims to investigate the relationship between those accidents and changes in fishing effort control regulations. In the introduction, the fishing effort control regulation is exposed, data of the Spanish fishing fleet structure and its accident rates are presented, and stability criteria dealt with in this work are explained, detailing its relationship with fishing vessel safety. A statistical analysis of the accident rates in the fishing sector in Spain is performed afterwards. The objective is determining whether the set of accidents studied constitute an anomaly or, on the contrary, they are not statistically relevant. Fishing vessels accident rates is analyzed from several fishing vessel databases in Spain. It is concluded that the set of studied accidents is statistically relevant, as the probability of occurrence of the five happenings is extremely low, considering the loss rates in the subsector of the Spanish fishing fleet where the studied vessels are fitted within. From this point the thesis focuses in comparing the vessels lost and the vessels that were decommissioned to build them as required by the fishing effort control regulation; these vessels will be referred to as “predecessors” of the sunk vessels. The main dimensions between each lost vessel and her predecessor are compared, leading to the conclusion that the lost vessels share design characteristics which are sensibly different from the predecessors, and linking these design characteristics with the requirements imposed by the new fishing control effort regulations. This allows establishing a relationship between the accidents and this regulation change. Then the margin in fulfilling the regulatory stability criteria among the vessels is compared, resulting, in four of the five cases, that predecessors meet the stability criteria with greater clearance than the sunk vessels. The results obtained at this point would establish a relationship between the change of fishing effort control regulation and the stability of vessels. The five lost vessels complied with the stability criteria in force, so the relation between these criteria and safety is put in question. Consequently, the comparison among vessels is extended to other fields related to safety and stability: • Motions onboard (operability), and • Specific stability criteria in rough weather The operability study shows that the lost vessels had in general greater operability than their predecessors, just the opposite as when comparing stability criteria. Finally, performance under specific rough weather stability criteria is checked. The criteria studied are the IMO Weather Criterion, and one of the 2nd generation stability criteria under development by IMO considering in this last case the presence of water on deck, which is an original contribution by the author. The observed trends in these two cases are opposite, allowing to put into question the last criterion validity without an exhaustive control of its formulation parameters; indicating that further research might be necessary before using it for regulatory purposes. The analysis of this set of results leads to some conclusions when comparing both groups of fishing vessels. While the results obtained are not conclusive in the sense that the entry into force of a new fishing effort control in 1998 caused a generalized safety reduction in whole sectors of the Spanish fishing fleet, it can be concluded that it opened the door for some vessel designs resulting with precarious stability. This evidences that the relation between safety and stability criteria is not univocal, so stability criteria needs to evolve for adapting to new fishing vessels designs so their safety is still guaranteed. It is also concluded that stability is a transversal aspect to ship design and operability, implying that any legislative reform affecting ship design or operating modes should be subjected to assessing by the authorities responsible for marine safety before being adopted.

Three-dimensional spatial distribution of synapses in the neocortex: A dual-beam electron microscopy study

In the cerebral cortex, most synapses are found in the neuropil, but relatively little is known about their 3-dimensional organization. Using an automated dual-beam electron microscope that combines focused ion beam milling and scanning electron microscopy, we have been able to obtain 10 three-dimensional samples with an average volume of 180 µm(3) from the neuropil of layer III of the young rat somatosensory cortex (hindlimb representation). We have used specific software tools to fully reconstruct 1695 synaptic junctions present in these samples and to accurately quantify the number of synapses per unit volume. These tools also allowed us to determine synapse position and to analyze their spatial distribution using spatial statistical methods. Our results indicate that the distribution of synaptic junctions in the neuropil is nearly random, only constrained by the fact that synapses cannot overlap in space. A theoretical model based on random sequential absorption, which closely reproduces the actual distribution of synapses, is also presented.

Advanced morphometric techniques applied to the study of human brain anatomy

El desarrollo de las técnicas de imágenes por resonancia magnética han permitido el estudio y cuantificación, in vivo, de los cambios que ocurren en la morfología cerebral ligados a procesos tales como el neurodesarrollo, el envejecimiento, el aprendizaje o la enfermedad. Un gran número de métodos de morfometría han sido desarrollados con el fin de extraer la información contenida en estas imágenes y traducirla en indicadores de forma o tamaño, tales como el volumen o el grosor cortical; marcadores que son posteriormente empleados para encontrar diferencias estadísticas entre poblaciones de sujetos o realizar correlaciones entre la morfología cerebral y, por ejemplo, la edad o la severidad de determinada enfermedad. A pesar de la amplia variedad de biomarcadores y metodologías de morfometría, muchos estudios sesgan sus hipótesis, y con ello los resultados experimentales, al empleo de un número reducido de biomarcadores o a al uso de una única metodología de procesamiento. Con el presente trabajo se pretende demostrar la importancia del empleo de diversos métodos de morfometría para lograr una mejor caracterización del proceso que se desea estudiar. En el mismo se emplea el análisis de forma para detectar diferencias, tanto globales como locales, en la morfología del tálamo entre pacientes adolescentes con episodios tempranos de psicosis y adolescentes sanos. Los resultados obtenidos demuestran que la diferencia de volumen talámico entre ambas poblaciones de sujetos, previamente descrita en la literatura, se debe a una reducción del volumen de la región anterior-mediodorsal y del núcleo pulvinar del tálamo de los pacientes respecto a los sujetos sanos. Además, se describe el desarrollo de un estudio longitudinal, en sujetos sanos, que emplea simultáneamente distintos biomarcadores para la caracterización y cuantificación de los cambios que ocurren en la morfología de la corteza cerebral durante la adolescencia. A través de este estudio se revela que el proceso de “alisado” que experimenta la corteza cerebral durante la adolescencia es consecuencia de una disminución de la profundidad, ligada a un incremento en el ancho, de los surcos corticales. Finalmente, esta metodología es aplicada, en un diseño transversal, para el estudio de las causas que provocan el decrecimiento tanto del grosor cortical como del índice de girificación en adolescentes con episodios tempranos de psicosis. ABSTRACT The ever evolving sophistication of magnetic resonance image techniques continue to provide new tools to characterize and quantify, in vivo, brain morphologic changes related to neurodevelopment, senescence, learning or disease. The majority of morphometric methods extract shape or size descriptors such as volume, surface area, and cortical thickness from the MRI image. These morphological measurements are commonly entered in statistical analytic approaches for testing between-group differences or for correlations between the morphological measurement and other variables such as age, sex, or disease severity. A wide variety of morphological biomarkers are reported in the literature. Despite this wide range of potentially useful biomarkers and available morphometric methods, the hypotheses and findings of the grand majority of morphological studies are biased because reports assess only one morphometric feature and usually use only one image processing method. Throughout this dissertation biomarkers and image processing strategies are combined to provide innovative and useful morphometric tools for examining brain changes during neurodevelopment. Specifically, a shape analysis technique allowing for a fine-grained assessment of regional thalamic volume in early-onset psychosis patients and healthy comparison subjects is implemented. Results show that disease-related reductions in global thalamic volume, as previously described by other authors, could be particularly driven by a deficit in the anterior-mediodorsal and pulvinar thalamic regions in patients relative to healthy subjects. Furthermore, in healthy adolescents different cortical features are extracted and combined and their interdependency is assessed over time. This study attempts to extend current knowledge of normal brain development, specifically the largely unexplored relationship between changes of distinct cortical morphological measurements during adolescence. This study demonstrates that cortical flattening, present during adolescence, is produced by a combination of age-related increase in sulcal width and decrease in sulcal depth. Finally, this methodology is applied to a cross-sectional study, investigating the mechanisms underlying the decrease in cortical thickness and gyrification observed in psychotic patients with a disease onset during adolescence.