A Fuzzy approach based on dynamic programming and metaheuristics for selecting safeguards for risk management for information systems

In this paper we focus on the selection of safeguards in a fuzzy risk analysis and management methodology for information systems (IS). Assets are connected by dependency relationships, and a failure of one asset may affect other assets. After computing impact and risk indicators associated with previously identified threats, we identify and apply safeguards to reduce risks in the IS by minimizing the transmission probabilities of failures throughout the asset network. However, as safeguards have associated costs, the aim is to select the safeguards that minimize costs while keeping the risk within acceptable levels. To do this, we propose a dynamic programming-based method that incorporates simulated annealing to tackle optimizations problems.

Veto values in Group Decision Making within MAUT: aggregating complete rankings derived from dominance intensity measures

We consider a groupdecision-making problem within multi-attribute utility theory, in which the relative importance of decisionmakers (DMs) is known and their preferences are represented by means of an additive function. We allow DMs to provide veto values for the attribute under consideration and build veto and adjust functions that are incorporated into the additive model. Veto functions check whether alternative performances are within the respective veto intervals, making the overall utility of the alternative equal to 0, where as adjust functions reduce the utilty of the alternative performance to match the preferences of other DMs. Dominance measuring methods are used to account for imprecise information in the decision-making scenario and to derive a ranking of alternatives for each DM. Specifically, ordinal information about the relative importance of criteria is provided by each DM. Finally, an extension of Kemeny's method is used to aggregate the alternative rankings from the DMs accounting for the irrelative importance.

Metodología para la optimización y análisis de la respuesta de medios e infraestructuras en el sistema aeroportuario en operaciones invernales mediante modelos basados en algorítmos genéticos

En este estudio, englobado dentro del campo de la investigación operacional en aeropuertos, se considera el problema de la optimización de la secuencia de descontaminación de nieve de los tramos que componen el área de maniobras de un aeropuerto, denominado RM-AM. Este problema se enfrenta a la optimización de recursos limitados para retirar la nieve de las calles de rodadura y pistas, dejándolas en un estado aceptable para la operación de aeronaves. El campo de vuelos se divide en subconjuntos de tramos significativos para la operación y se establecen tiempos objetivo de apertura al tráfico de aeronaves. Se desarrollan varios algoritmos matemáticos en los que se proponen distintas funciones objetivo, como son la hora de finalización del proceso, la suma de las horas de finalización de cada tramo, o el retraso entre la hora estimada y la hora de finalización. Durante este proceso, se van introduciendo restricciones operativas relativas al cumplimiento de objetivos operativos parciales aplicados a las zonas de especial interés, o relativas a la operación de los equipos de descontaminación. El problema se resuelve mediante optimización basada en programación lineal. Los resultados de las pruebas computacionales se hacen sobre cinco modelos de área de maniobras en los que va creciendo la complejidad y el tamaño. Se comparan las prestaciones de los distintos algoritmos. Una vez definido el modelo matemático para la optiamización, se propone una metodología estructurada para abordar dicho problema para cualquier área de manobras. Se define una estrategia en la operación. Se acomete el área de maniobras por zonas, con la condición de que los subconjuntos de tramos significativos queden englobados dentro de una sola de estas zonas. El problema se resuelve mediante un proceso iterativo de optimización aplicado sucesivamente a las zonas que componen el área de maniobras durante cada iteración. Se analiza la repercusión de los resultados en los procesos DMAN, AMAN y TP, para la integración de los resultados en el cálculo de TSAT y EBIT. El método se particulariza para el caso del área de maniobras del Aeropuerto Adolfo Suárez Madrid Barajas. ABSTRACT This study, which lies within the field of operations research in airports, considers the optimisation of the sequence for clearing snow from stretches of the manoeuvring area of an airport, known as RM-AM. This issue involves the optimisation of limited resources to remove snow from taxiways and runways thereby leaving them in an acceptable condition for operating aircraft. The airfield is divided into subsets of significant stretches for the purpose of operations and target times are established during which these are open to aircraft traffic. The study contains several mathematical models each with different functions, such as the end time of the process, the sum of the end times of each stretch, and gap between the estimated and the real end times. During this process, we introduce different operating restrictions on partial fulfilment of the operational targets as applied to zones of special interest, or relating to the operation of the snow-clearing machines. The problem is solved by optimisation based on linear programming. Computational tests are carried out on five distinct models of the manoeuvring area, which cover increasingly complex situations and larger areas. The different algorithms are then compared to one other. Having defined the mathematical model for the optimisation, we then set out a structured methodology to deal with any type of manoeuvring area. In other words, we define an operational strategy. The airfield is divided into subsets of significant stretches for the purpose of operations and target times are set at which these are to be open to aircraft traffic. The manoeuvring area is also divided into zones, with the condition that the subsets of significant stretches lie within just one of these zones. The problem is solved by an iterative optimisation process based on linear programming applied successively to the zones that make up the manoeuvring area during each iteration. The impact of the results on DMAN, AMAN and TP processes is analysed for their integration into the calculation of TSAT and EBIT. The method is particularized for the case of the manoeuvring area of Adolfo Suarez Madrid - Barajas Airport.

Aerodynamic optimization of the ICE2 high-speed train nose using a genetic algorithm and metamodels

An aerodynamic optimization of the ICE 2 high-speed train nose in term of front wind action sensitivity is carried out in this paper. The nose is parametrically defined by Be?zier Curves, and a three-dimensional representation of the nose is obtained using thirty one design variables. This implies a more complete parametrization, allowing the representation of a real model. In order to perform this study a genetic algorithm (GA) is used. Using a GA involves a large number of evaluations before finding such optimal. Hence it is proposed the use of metamodels or surrogate models to replace Navier-Stokes solver and speed up the optimization process. Adaptive sampling is considered to optimize surrogate model fitting and minimize computational cost when dealing with a very large number of design parameters. The paper introduces the feasi- bility of using GA in combination with metamodels for real high-speed train geometry optimization.

Control of integrated unit operations

As a thermal separation method, distillation is one of the most important technologies in the chemical industry. Given its importance, it is no surprise that increasing efforts have been made in reducing its energy inefficiencies. A great deal of research is focused in the design and optimization of the Divided-Wall Column. Its applications are still reduced due to distrust of its controllability. Previous references studied the decentralized control of DWC but still few papers deal about Model Predictive Control. In this work we present a decentralized control of both a DWC column along with its equivalent MPC schema.

Distributed Estimation of Distribution Algorithms for continuous optimization: how does the exchanged information influence their behavior?

One of the most promising areas in which probabilistic graphical models have shown an incipient activity is the field of heuristic optimization and, in particular, in Estimation of Distribution Algorithms. Due to their inherent parallelism, different research lines have been studied trying to improve Estimation of Distribution Algorithms from the point of view of execution time and/or accuracy. Among these proposals, we focus on the so-called distributed or island-based models. This approach defines several islands (algorithms instances) running independently and exchanging information with a given frequency. The information sent by the islands can be either a set of individuals or a probabilistic model. This paper presents a comparative study for a distributed univariate Estimation of Distribution Algorithm and a multivariate version, paying special attention to the comparison of two alternative methods for exchanging information, over a wide set of parameters and problems ? the standard benchmark developed for the IEEE Workshop on Evolutionary Algorithms and other Metaheuristics for Continuous Optimization Problems of the ISDA 2009 Conference. Several analyses from different points of view have been conducted to analyze both the influence of the parameters and the relationships between them including a characterization of the configurations according to their behavior on the proposed benchmark.

A proposal for a modular and application-aware autonomic manager of private cloud infrastructures

Recientemente, el paradigma de la computación en la nube ha recibido mucho interés por parte tanto de la industria como del mundo académico. Las infraestructuras cloud públicas están posibilitando nuevos modelos de negocio y ayudando a reducir costes. Sin embargo, una compañía podría desear ubicar sus datos y servicios en sus propias instalaciones, o tener que atenerse a leyes de protección de datos. Estas circunstancias hacen a las infraestructuras cloud privadas ciertamente deseables, ya sea para complementar a las públicas o para sustituirlas por completo. Por desgracia, las carencias en materia de estándares han impedido que las soluciones para la gestión de infraestructuras privadas se hayan desarrollado adecuadamente. Además, la multitud de opciones disponibles ha creado en los clientes el miedo a depender de una tecnología concreta (technology lock-in). Una de las causas de este problema es la falta de alineación entre la investigación académica y los productos comerciales, ya que aquella está centrada en el estudio de escenarios idealizados sin correspondencia con el mundo real, mientras que éstos consisten en soluciones desarrolladas sin tener en cuenta cómo van a encajar con los estándares más comunes o sin preocuparse de hacer públicos sus resultados. Con objeto de resolver este problema, propongo un sistema de gestión modular para infraestructuras cloud privadas enfocado en tratar con las aplicaciones en lugar de centrarse únicamente en los recursos hardware. Este sistema de gestión sigue el paradigma de la computación autónoma y está diseñado en torno a un modelo de información sencillo, desarrollado para ser compatible con los estándares más comunes. Este modelo divide el entorno en dos vistas, que sirven para separar aquello que debe preocupar a cada actor involucrado del resto de información, pero al mismo tiempo permitiendo relacionar el entorno físico con las máquinas virtuales que se despliegan encima de él. En dicho modelo, las aplicaciones cloud están divididas en tres tipos genéricos (Servicios, Trabajos de Big Data y Reservas de Instancias), para que así el sistema de gestión pueda sacar partido de las características propias de cada tipo. El modelo de información está complementado por un conjunto de acciones de gestión atómicas, reversibles e independientes, que determinan las operaciones que se pueden llevar a cabo sobre el entorno y que es usado para hacer posible la escalabilidad en el entorno. También describo un motor de gestión encargado de, a partir del estado del entorno y usando el ya mencionado conjunto de acciones, la colocación de recursos. Está dividido en dos niveles: la capa de Gestores de Aplicación, encargada de tratar sólo con las aplicaciones; y la capa del Gestor de Infraestructura, responsable de los recursos físicos. Dicho motor de gestión obedece un ciclo de vida con dos fases, para así modelar mejor el comportamiento de una infraestructura real. El problema de la colocación de recursos es atacado durante una de las fases (la de consolidación) por un resolutor de programación entera, y durante la otra (la online) por un heurístico hecho ex-profeso. Varias pruebas han demostrado que este acercamiento combinado es superior a otras estrategias. Para terminar, el sistema de gestión está acoplado a arquitecturas de monitorización y de actuadores. Aquella estando encargada de recolectar información del entorno, y ésta siendo modular en su diseño y capaz de conectarse con varias tecnologías y ofrecer varios modos de acceso. ABSTRACT The cloud computing paradigm has raised in popularity within the industry and the academia. Public cloud infrastructures are enabling new business models and helping to reduce costs. However, the desire to host company’s data and services on premises, and the need to abide to data protection laws, make private cloud infrastructures desirable, either to complement or even fully substitute public oferings. Unfortunately, a lack of standardization has precluded private infrastructure management solutions to be developed to a certain level, and a myriad of diferent options have induced the fear of lock-in in customers. One of the causes of this problem is the misalignment between academic research and industry ofering, with the former focusing in studying idealized scenarios dissimilar from real-world situations, and the latter developing solutions without taking care about how they f t with common standards, or even not disseminating their results. With the aim to solve this problem I propose a modular management system for private cloud infrastructures that is focused on the applications instead of just the hardware resources. This management system follows the autonomic system paradigm, and is designed around a simple information model developed to be compatible with common standards. This model splits the environment in two views that serve to separate the concerns of the stakeholders while at the same time enabling the traceability between the physical environment and the virtual machines deployed onto it. In it, cloud applications are classifed in three broad types (Services, Big Data Jobs and Instance Reservations), in order for the management system to take advantage of each type’s features. The information model is paired with a set of atomic, reversible and independent management actions which determine the operations that can be performed over the environment and is used to realize the cloud environment’s scalability. From the environment’s state and using the aforementioned set of actions, I also describe a management engine tasked with the resource placement. It is divided in two tiers: the Application Managers layer, concerned just with applications; and the Infrastructure Manager layer, responsible of the actual physical resources. This management engine follows a lifecycle with two phases, to better model the behavior of a real infrastructure. The placement problem is tackled during one phase (consolidation) by using an integer programming solver, and during the other (online) with a custom heuristic. Tests have demonstrated that this combined approach is superior to other strategies. Finally, the management system is paired with monitoring and actuators architectures. The former able to collect the necessary information from the environment, and the later modular in design and capable of interfacing with several technologies and ofering several access interfaces.

Optimization methods for the operating room management under uncertainty: stochastic programming vs. decomposition approach

The operating theatres are the engine of the hospitals; proper management of the operating rooms and its staff represents a great challenge for managers and its results impact directly in the budget of the hospital. This work presents a MILP model for the efficient schedule of multiple surgeries in Operating Rooms (ORs) during a working day. This model considers multiple surgeons and ORs and different types of surgeries. Stochastic strategies are also implemented for taking into account the uncertain in surgery durations (pre-incision, incision, post-incision times). In addition, a heuristic-based methods and a MILP decomposition approach is proposed for solving large-scale ORs scheduling problems in computational efficient way. All these computer-aided strategies has been implemented in AIMMS, as an advanced modeling and optimization software, developing a user friendly solution tool for the operating room management under uncertainty.

Managing daily surgery schedules in a teaching hospital: a mixed-integer optimization approach

Background: This study examined the daily surgical scheduling problem in a teaching hospital. This problem relates to the use of multiple operating rooms and different types of surgeons in a typical surgical day with deterministic operation durations (preincision, incision, and postincision times). Teaching hospitals play a key role in the health-care system; however, existing models assume that the duration of surgery is independent of the surgeon's skills. This problem has not been properly addressed in other studies. We analyze the case of a Spanish public hospital, in which continuous pressures and budgeting reductions entail the more efficient use of resources. Methods: To obtain an optimal solution for this problem, we developed a mixed-integer programming model and user-friendly interface that facilitate the scheduling of planned operations for the following surgical day. We also implemented a simulation model to assist the evaluation of different dispatching policies for surgeries and surgeons. The typical aspects we took into account were the type of surgeon, potential overtime, idling time of surgeons, and the use of operating rooms. Results: It is necessary to consider the expertise of a given surgeon when formulating a schedule: such skill can decrease the probability of delays that could affect subsequent surgeries or cause cancellation of the final surgery. We obtained optimal solutions for a set of given instances, which we obtained through surgical information related to acceptable times collected from a Spanish public hospital. Conclusions: We developed a computer-aided framework with a user-friendly interface for use by a surgical manager that presents a 3-D simulation of the problem. Additionally, we obtained an efficient formulation for this complex problem. However, the spread of this kind of operation research in Spanish public health hospitals will take a long time since there is a lack of knowledge of the beneficial techniques and possibilities that operational research can offer for the health-care system.

NURBS-Based Geometry Parameterization for Aerodynamic Shape Optimization

La motivación de esta tesis es el desarrollo de una herramienta de optimización automática para la mejora del rendimiento de formas aerodinámicas enfocado en la industria aeronáutica. Este trabajo cubre varios aspectos esenciales, desde el empleo de Non-Uniform Rational B-Splines (NURBS), al cálculo de gradientes utilizando la metodología del adjunto continuo, el uso de b-splines volumétricas como parámetros de diseño, el tratamiento de la malla en las intersecciones, y no menos importante, la adaptación de los algoritmos de la dinámica de fluidos computacional (CFD) en arquitecturas hardware de alto paralelismo, como las tarjetas gráficas, para acelerar el proceso de optimización. La metodología adjunta ha posibilitado que los métodos de optimización basados en gradientes sean una alternativa prometedora para la mejora de la eficiencia aerodinámica de los aviones. La formulación del adjunto permite calcular los gradientes de una función de coste, como la resistencia aerodinámica o la sustentación, independientemente del número de variables de diseño, a un coste computacional equivalente a una simulación CFD. Sin embargo, existen problemas prácticos que han imposibilitado su aplicación en la industria, que se pueden resumir en: integrabilidad, rendimiento computacional y robustez de la solución adjunta. Este trabajo aborda estas contrariedades y las analiza en casos prácticos. Como resumen, las contribuciones de esta tesis son: • El uso de NURBS como variables de diseño en un bucle de automático de optimización, aplicado a la mejora del rendimiento aerodinámico de alas en régimen transónico. • El desarrollo de algoritmos de inversión de punto, para calcular las coordenadas paramétricas de las coordenadas espaciales, para ligar los vértices de malla a las NURBS. • El uso y validación de la formulación adjunta para el calculo de los gradientes, a partir de las sensibilidades de la solución adjunta, comparado con diferencias finitas. • Se ofrece una estrategia para utilizar la geometría CAD, en forma de parches NURBS, para tratar las intersecciones, como el ala-fuselaje. • No existen muchas alternativas de librerías NURBS viables. En este trabajo se ha desarrollado una librería, DOMINO NURBS, y se ofrece a la comunidad como código libre y abierto. • También se ha implementado un código CFD en tarjeta gráfica, para realizar una valoración de cómo se puede adaptar un código sobre malla no estructurada a arquitecturas paralelas. • Finalmente, se propone una metodología, basada en la función de Green, como una forma eficiente de paralelizar simulaciones numéricas. Esta tesis ha sido apoyada por las actividades realizadas por el Área de Dinámica da Fluidos del Instituto Nacional de Técnica Aeroespacial (INTA), a través de numerosos proyectos de financiación nacional: DOMINO, SIMUMAT, y CORESFMULAERO. También ha estado en consonancia con las actividades realizadas por el departamento de Métodos y Herramientas de Airbus España y con el grupo Investigación y Tecnología Aeronáutica Europeo (GARTEUR), AG/52. ABSTRACT The motivation of this work is the development of an automatic optimization strategy for large scale shape optimization problems that arise in the aeronautics industry to improve the aerodynamic performance; covering several aspects from the use of Non-Uniform Rational B-Splines (NURBS), the calculation of the gradients with the continuous adjoint formulation, the development of volumetric b-splines parameterization, mesh adaptation and intersection handling, to the adaptation of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) algorithms to take advantage of highly parallel architectures in order to speed up the optimization process. With the development of the adjoint formulation, gradient-based methods for aerodynamic optimization become a promising approach to improve the aerodynamic performance of aircraft designs. The adjoint methodology allows the evaluation the gradients to all design variables of a cost function, such as drag or lift, at the equivalent cost of more or less one CFD simulation. However, some practical problems have been delaying its full implementation to the industry, which can be summarized as: integrability, computer performance, and adjoint robustness. This work tackles some of these issues and analyse them in well-known test cases. As summary, the contributions comprises: • The employment of NURBS as design variables in an automatic optimization loop for the improvement of the aerodynamic performance of aircraft wings in transonic regimen. • The development of point inversion algorithms to calculate the NURBS parametric coordinates from the space coordinates, to link with the computational grid vertex. • The use and validation of the adjoint formulation to calculate the gradients from the surface sensitivities in an automatic optimization loop and evaluate its reliability, compared with finite differences. • This work proposes some algorithms that take advantage of the underlying CAD geometry description, in the form of NURBS patches, to handle intersections and mesh adaptations. • There are not many usable libraries for NURBS available. In this work an open source library DOMINO NURBS has been developed and is offered to the community as free, open source code. • The implementation of a transonic CFD solver from scratch in a graphic card, for an assessment of the implementability of conventional CFD solvers for unstructured grids to highly parallel architectures. • Finally, this research proposes the use of the Green's function as an efficient paralellization scheme of numerical solvers. The presented work has been supported by the activities carried out at the Fluid Dynamics branch of the National Institute for Aerospace Technology (INTA) through national founding research projects: DOMINO, SIMUMAT, and CORESIMULAERO; in line with the activities carried out by the Methods and Tools and Flight Physics department at Airbus and the Group for Aeronautical Research and Technology in Europe (GARTEUR) action group AG/52.

Analysis and optimization for a hexapod walking robot for planetary missions

La tecnología de las máquinas móviles autónomas ha sido objeto de una gran investigación y desarrollo en las últimas décadas. En muchas actividades y entornos, los robots pueden realizar operaciones que son duras, peligrosas o simplemente imposibles para los humanos. La exploración planetaria es un buen ejemplo de un entorno donde los robots son necesarios para realizar las tareas requeridas por los científicos. La reciente exploración de Marte con robots autónomos nos ha mostrado la capacidad de las nuevas tecnologías. Desde la invención de la rueda, que esta acertadamente considerado como el mayor invento en la historia del transporte humano, casi todos los vehículos para exploración planetaria han empleado las ruedas para su desplazamiento. Las nuevas misiones planetarias demandan maquinas cada vez mas complejas. En esta Tesis se propone un nuevo diseño de un robot con patas o maquina andante que ofrecerá claras ventajas en entornos extremos. Se demostrara que puede desplazarse en los terrenos donde los robots con ruedas son ineficientes, convirtiéndolo en una elección perfecta para misiones planetarias. Se presenta una reseña histórica de los principales misiones espaciales, en particular aquellos dirigidos a la exploración planetaria. A través de este estudio será posible analizar las desventajas de los robots con ruedas utilizados en misiones anteriores. El diseño propuesto de robot con patas será presentado como una alternativa para aquellas misiones donde los robots con ruedas puedan no ser la mejor opción. En esta tesis se presenta el diseño mecánico de un robot de seis patas capaz de soportar las grandes fuerzas y momentos derivadas del movimiento de avance. Una vez concluido el diseño mecánico es necesario realizar un análisis que permita entender el movimiento y comportamiento de una maquina de esta complejidad. Las ecuaciones de movimiento del robot serán validadas por dos métodos: cinemático y dinámico. Dos códigos Matlab® han sido desarrollados para resolver dichos sistemas de ecuaciones y han sido verificados por un tercer método, un modelo de elementos finitos, que también verifica el diseño mecánico. El robot con patas presentado, ha sido diseñado para la exploración planetaria en Marte. El comportamiento del robot durante sus desplazamientos será probado mediante un código de Matlab®, desarrollado para esta tesis, que permite modificar las trayectorias, el tipo de terreno, y el número y altura de los obstáculos. Estos terrenos y requisitos iniciales no han sido elegidos de forma aleatoria, si no que están basados en mi experiencia como miembro del equipo de MSL-NASA que opera un instrumento a bordo del rover Curiosity en Marte. El robot con patas desarrollado y fabricado por el Centro de Astrobiología (INTA-CSIC), esta basado en el diseño mecánico y análisis presentados en esta tesis. ABSTRACT The autonomous machines technology has undergone a major research and development during the last decades. In many activities and environments, robots can perform operations that are tought, dangerous or simply imposible to humans. Planetary exploration is a good example of such environment where robots are needed to perform the tasks required by the scientits. Recent Mars exploration based on autonomous vehicles has shown us the capacity of the new technologies. From the invention of the wheel, which is rightly regarded as the greatest invention in the history of human transportation, nearly all-planetary vehicles are based in wheeled locomotion, but new missions demand new types of machines due to the complex tasks needed to be performed. It will be proposed in this thesis a new design of a legged robot or walking machine, which may offer clear advantages in tough environments. This Thesis will show that the proposed walking machine can travel, were terrain difficulties make wheeled vehicles ineffective, making it a perfect choice for planetary mission. A historical background of the main space missions, in particular those aimed at planetary exploration will be presented. From this study the disadvantages found in the existing wheel rovers will be analysed. The legged robot designed will be introduced as an alternative were wheeled rovers could be no longer the best option for planetary exploration. This thesis introduces the mechanical design of a six-leg robot capable of withstanding high forces and moments due to the walking motion. Once the mechanical design is concluded, and in order to analyse a machine of this complexity an understanding of its movement and behaviour is mandatory. This movement equation will be validated by two methods: kinematics and dynamics. Two Matlab® codes have been developed to solve the systems of equations and validated by a third method, a finite element model, which also verifies the mechanical design. The legged robot presented has been designed for a Mars planetary exploration. The movement behaviour of the robot will be tested in a Matlab® code developed that allows to modify the trajectories, the type of terrain, number and height of obstacles. These terrains and initial requirements have not been chosen randomly, those are based on my experience as a member of the MSL NASA team, which operates an instrument on-board of the Curiosity rover in Mars. The walking robot developed and manufactured by the Center of Astrobiology (CAB) is based in the mechanical design and analysis that will be presented in this thesis.