A multi-agent system with distributed bayesian reasoning for network fault diagnosis

In this paper, an innovative approach to perform distributed Bayesian inference using a multi-agent architecture is presented. The final goal is dealing with uncertainty in network diagnosis, but the solution can be of applied in other fields. The validation testbed has been a P2P streaming video service. An assessment of the work is presented, in order to show its advantages when it is compared with traditional manual processes and other previous systems.

Geometric characteristics of conics in Bézier form

Synthetic derivation of closed formulae of the geometric characteristic of a conic given in Bézier form in terms of its control polygon, (P; Q; R) and weights, (1; w; 1g)

Geometric diagnostics of complex patterns: Spiral defect chaos

Motivated by the observation of spiral patterns in a wide range of physical, chemical, and biological systems, we present an automated approach that aims at characterizing quantitatively spiral-like elements in complex stripelike patterns. The approach provides the location of the spiral tip and the size of the spiral arms in terms of their arc length and their winding number. In addition, it yields the number of pattern components (Betti number of order 1), as well as their size and certain aspects of their shape. We apply the method to spiral defect chaos in thermally driven Rayleigh- Bénard convection and find that the arc length of spirals decreases monotonically with decreasing Prandtl number of the fluid and increasing heating. By contrast, the winding number of the spirals is nonmonotonic in the heating. The distribution function for the number of spirals is significantly narrower than a Poisson distribution. The distribution function for the winding number shows approximately an exponential decay. It depends only weakly on the heating, but strongly on the Prandtl number. Large spirals arise only for larger Prandtl numbers. In this regime the joint distribution for the spiral length and the winding number exhibits a three-peak structure, indicating the dominance of Archimedean spirals of opposite sign and relatively straight sections. For small Prandtl numbers the distribution function reveals a large number of small compact pattern components.

Optimización de la Exactitud Geométrica al Integrar Diversas Fuentes de Datos en Proyectos de Inventario Forestal Basados en Escaneo Laser Aerotransportado=Optimizing Geometric Accuracy in Data Source Integration for Airborne Laser Scanning-based Forest Inventory Projects

La mayoría de las aplicaciones forestales del escaneo laser aerotransportado (ALS, del inglés airborne laser scanning) requieren la integración y uso simultaneo de diversas fuentes de datos, con el propósito de conseguir diversos objetivos. Los proyectos basados en sensores remotos normalmente consisten en aumentar la escala de estudio progresivamente a lo largo de varias fases de fusión de datos: desde la información más detallada obtenida sobre un área limitada (la parcela de campo), hasta una respuesta general de la cubierta forestal detectada a distancia de forma más incierta pero cubriendo un área mucho más amplia (la extensión cubierta por el vuelo o el satélite). Todas las fuentes de datos necesitan en ultimo termino basarse en las tecnologías de sistemas de navegación global por satélite (GNSS, del inglés global navigation satellite systems), las cuales son especialmente erróneas al operar por debajo del dosel forestal. Otras etapas adicionales de procesamiento, como la ortorectificación, también pueden verse afectadas por la presencia de vegetación, deteriorando la exactitud de las coordenadas de referencia de las imágenes ópticas. Todos estos errores introducen ruido en los modelos, ya que los predictores se desplazan de la posición real donde se sitúa su variable respuesta. El grado por el que las estimaciones forestales se ven afectadas depende de la dispersión espacial de las variables involucradas, y también de la escala utilizada en cada caso. Esta tesis revisa las fuentes de error posicional que pueden afectar a los diversos datos de entrada involucrados en un proyecto de inventario forestal basado en teledetección ALS, y como las propiedades del dosel forestal en sí afecta a su magnitud, aconsejando en consecuencia métodos para su reducción. También se incluye una discusión sobre las formas más apropiadas de medir exactitud y precisión en cada caso, y como los errores de posicionamiento de hecho afectan a la calidad de las estimaciones, con vistas a una planificación eficiente de la adquisición de los datos. La optimización final en el posicionamiento GNSS y de la radiometría del sensor óptico permitió detectar la importancia de este ultimo en la predicción de la desidad relativa de un bosque monoespecífico de Pinus sylvestris L. ABSTRACT Most forestry applications of airborne laser scanning (ALS) require the integration and simultaneous use of various data sources, pursuing a variety of different objectives. Projects based on remotely-sensed data generally consist in upscaling data fusion stages: from the most detailed information obtained for a limited area (field plot) to a more uncertain forest response sensed over a larger extent (airborne and satellite swath). All data sources ultimately rely on global navigation satellite systems (GNSS), which are especially error-prone when operating under forest canopies. Other additional processing stages, such as orthorectification, may as well be affected by vegetation, hence deteriorating the accuracy of optical imagery’s reference coordinates. These errors introduce noise to the models, as predictors displace from their corresponding response. The degree to which forest estimations are affected depends on the spatial dispersion of the variables involved and the scale used. This thesis reviews the sources of positioning errors which may affect the different inputs involved in an ALS-assisted forest inventory project, and how the properties of the forest canopy itself affects their magnitude, advising on methods for diminishing them. It is also discussed how accuracy should be assessed, and how positioning errors actually affect forest estimation, toward a cost-efficient planning for data acquisition. The final optimization in positioning the GNSS and optical image allowed to detect the importance of the latter in predicting relative density in a monospecific Pinus sylvestris L. forest.

Approximate Relational Reasoning for Probabilistic Programs

La seguridad verificada es una metodología para demostrar propiedades de seguridad de los sistemas informáticos que se destaca por las altas garantías de corrección que provee. Los sistemas informáticos se modelan como programas probabilísticos y para probar que verifican una determinada propiedad de seguridad se utilizan técnicas rigurosas basadas en modelos matemáticos de los programas. En particular, la seguridad verificada promueve el uso de demostradores de teoremas interactivos o automáticos para construir demostraciones completamente formales cuya corrección es certificada mecánicamente (por ordenador). La seguridad verificada demostró ser una técnica muy efectiva para razonar sobre diversas nociones de seguridad en el área de criptografía. Sin embargo, no ha podido cubrir un importante conjunto de nociones de seguridad “aproximada”. La característica distintiva de estas nociones de seguridad es que se expresan como una condición de “similitud” entre las distribuciones de salida de dos programas probabilísticos y esta similitud se cuantifica usando alguna noción de distancia entre distribuciones de probabilidad. Este conjunto incluye destacadas nociones de seguridad de diversas áreas como la minería de datos privados, el análisis de flujo de información y la criptografía. Ejemplos representativos de estas nociones de seguridad son la indiferenciabilidad, que permite reemplazar un componente idealizado de un sistema por una implementación concreta (sin alterar significativamente sus propiedades de seguridad), o la privacidad diferencial, una noción de privacidad que ha recibido mucha atención en los últimos años y tiene como objetivo evitar la publicación datos confidenciales en la minería de datos. La falta de técnicas rigurosas que permitan verificar formalmente este tipo de propiedades constituye un notable problema abierto que tiene que ser abordado. En esta tesis introducimos varias lógicas de programa quantitativas para razonar sobre esta clase de propiedades de seguridad. Nuestra principal contribución teórica es una versión quantitativa de una lógica de Hoare relacional para programas probabilísticos. Las pruebas de correción de estas lógicas son completamente formalizadas en el asistente de pruebas Coq. Desarrollamos, además, una herramienta para razonar sobre propiedades de programas a través de estas lógicas extendiendo CertiCrypt, un framework para verificar pruebas de criptografía en Coq. Confirmamos la efectividad y aplicabilidad de nuestra metodología construyendo pruebas certificadas por ordendor de varios sistemas cuyo análisis estaba fuera del alcance de la seguridad verificada. Esto incluye, entre otros, una meta-construcción para diseñar funciones de hash “seguras” sobre curvas elípticas y algoritmos diferencialmente privados para varios problemas de optimización combinatoria de la literatura reciente. ABSTRACT The verified security methodology is an emerging approach to build high assurance proofs about security properties of computer systems. Computer systems are modeled as probabilistic programs and one relies on rigorous program semantics techniques to prove that they comply with a given security goal. In particular, it advocates the use of interactive theorem provers or automated provers to build fully formal machine-checked versions of these security proofs. The verified security methodology has proved successful in modeling and reasoning about several standard security notions in the area of cryptography. However, it has fallen short of covering an important class of approximate, quantitative security notions. The distinguishing characteristic of this class of security notions is that they are stated as a “similarity” condition between the output distributions of two probabilistic programs, and this similarity is quantified using some notion of distance between probability distributions. This class comprises prominent security notions from multiple areas such as private data analysis, information flow analysis and cryptography. These include, for instance, indifferentiability, which enables securely replacing an idealized component of system with a concrete implementation, and differential privacy, a notion of privacy-preserving data mining that has received a great deal of attention in the last few years. The lack of rigorous techniques for verifying these properties is thus an important problem that needs to be addressed. In this dissertation we introduce several quantitative program logics to reason about this class of security notions. Our main theoretical contribution is, in particular, a quantitative variant of a full-fledged relational Hoare logic for probabilistic programs. The soundness of these logics is fully formalized in the Coq proof-assistant and tool support is also available through an extension of CertiCrypt, a framework to verify cryptographic proofs in Coq. We validate the applicability of our approach by building fully machine-checked proofs for several systems that were out of the reach of the verified security methodology. These comprise, among others, a construction to build “safe” hash functions into elliptic curves and differentially private algorithms for several combinatorial optimization problems from the recent literature.

Geometric documentation of the flour factory "El Puente Colgante" in Aranjuez (Madrid).

The goal of this communication is to offer, through computer-aided design tools, a methodology to recover and virtually reconstruct disappeared buildings of our industrial historical heritage. It will be applied to the case of the flour factory "El Puente Colgante" (The Suspended Bridge) in Aranjuez, which was demolished in 2001. The process is as follows: After a historical analysis of the evolution in time of the flour factory, a field work provides data allowing an info graphic reconstruction of the factory. Once this information has been processed, a lifting of the current state is made with AutoCAD, and a three-dimensional model is built with the Rhinoceros application. Then images of the ensemble are obtained with the applications Rhinoceros and V-Ray, ending with a postproduction with Photoshop. The proposed methodology has permitted to obtain a three-dimensional model of the flour factory ?El Puente Colgante? in Aranjuez, with an accurate virtual reconstruction of its original state prior to demolition. The procedure exposed is susceptible to be generalized for any other example of industrial architecture.

A formalism and method for representing and reasoning with process models authored by subject matter experts

Enabling Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to formulate knowledge without the intervention of Knowledge Engineers (KEs) requires providing SMEs with methods and tools that abstract the underlying knowledge representation and allow them to focus on modeling activities. Bridging the gap between SME-authored models and their representation is challenging, especially in the case of complex knowledge types like processes, where aspects like frame management, data, and control flow need to be addressed. In this paper, we describe how SME-authored process models can be provided with an operational semantics and grounded in a knowledge representation language like F-logic in order to support process-related reasoning. The main results of this work include a formalism for process representation and a mechanism for automatically translating process diagrams into executable code following such formalism. From all the process models authored by SMEs during evaluation 82% were well-formed, all of which executed correctly. Additionally, the two optimizations applied to the code generation mechanism produced a performance improvement at reasoning time of 25% and 30% with respect to the base case, respectively.

Probabilistic reasoning with an enzyme-driven DNA device

We present a biomolecular probabilistic model driven by the action of a DNA toolbox made of a set of DNA templates and enzymes that is able to perform Bayesian inference. The model will take single-stranded DNA as input data, representing the presence or absence of a specific molecular signal (the evidence). The program logic uses different DNA templates and their relative concentration ratios to encode the prior probability of a disease and the conditional probability of a signal given the disease. When the input and program molecules interact, an enzyme-driven cascade of reactions (DNA polymerase extension, nicking and degradation) is triggered, producing a different pair of single-stranded DNA species. Once the system reaches equilibrium, the ratio between the output species will represent the application of Bayes? law: the conditional probability of the disease given the signal. In other words, a qualitative diagnosis plus a quantitative degree of belief in that diagno- sis. Thanks to the inherent amplification capability of this DNA toolbox, the resulting system will be able to to scale up (with longer cascades and thus more input signals) a Bayesian biosensor that we designed previously.

Analysis of pixel-mapping rounding on geometric distortion as a prediction for view synthesis distortion

We analyze the performance of the geometric distortion, incurred when coding depth maps in 3D Video, as an estimator of the distortion of synthesized views. Our analysis is motivated by the need of reducing the computational complexity required for the computation of synthesis distortion in 3D video encoders. We propose several geometric distortion models that capture (i) the geometric distortion caused by the depth coding error, and (ii) the pixel-mapping precision in view synthesis. Our analysis starts with the evaluation of the correlation of geometric distortion values obtained with these models and the actual distortion on synthesized views. Then, the different geometric distortion models are employed in the rate-distortion optimization cycle of depth map coding, in order to assess the results obtained by the correlation analysis. Results show that one of the geometric distortion models is performing consistently better than the other models in all tests. Therefore, it can be used as a reasonable estimator of the synthesis distortion in low complexity depth encoders.

Einstein-like geometric structures on surfaces

An AH (affine hypersurface) structure is a pair comprising a projective equivalence class of torsion-free connections and a conformal structure satisfying a compatibility condition which is automatic in two dimensions. They generalize Weyl structures, and a pair of AH structures is induced on a co-oriented non-degenerate immersed hypersurface in flat affine space. The author has defined for AH structures Einstein equations, which specialize on the one hand to the usual Einstein Weyl equations and, on the other hand, to the equations for affine hyperspheres. Here these equations are solved for Riemannian signature AH structures on compact orientable surfaces, the deformation spaces of solutions are described, and some aspects of the geometry of these structures are related. Every such structure is either Einstein Weyl (in the sense defined for surfaces by Calderbank) or is determined by a pair comprising a conformal structure and a cubic holomorphic differential, and so by a convex flat real projective structure. In the latter case it can be identified with a solution of the Abelian vortex equations on an appropriate power of the canonical bundle. On the cone over a surface of genus at least two carrying an Einstein AH structure there are Monge-Amp`ere metrics of Lorentzian and Riemannian signature and a Riemannian Einstein K"ahler affine metric. A mean curvature zero spacelike immersed Lagrangian submanifold of a para-K"ahler four-manifold with constant para-holomorphic sectional curvature inherits an Einstein AH structure, and this is used to deduce some restrictions on such immersions.

Geometric Study of the Weak Equilibrium in a Weighted Case for a Two-Dimensional Competition Game

In this work, an improvement of the results presented by [1] Abellanas et al. (Weak Equilibrium in a Spatial Model. International Journal of Game Theory, 40(3), 449-459) is discussed. Concretely, this paper investigates an abstract game of competition between two players that want to earn the maximum number of points from a finite set of points in the plane. It is assumed that the distribution of these points is not uniform, so an appropriate weight to each position is assigned. A definition of equilibrium which is weaker than the classical one is included in order to avoid the uniqueness of the equilibrium position typical of the Nash equilibrium in these kinds of games. The existence of this approximated equilibrium in the game is analyzed by means of computational geometry techniques.

Analysis of the geometric altimetry to support aircraft optimal trajectories within the future 4d trajectory management

Over the past few years, the common practice within air traffic management has been that commercial aircraft fly by following a set of predefined routes to reach their destination. Currently, aircraft operators are requesting more flexibility to fly according to their prefer- ences, in order to achieve their business objectives. Due to this reason, much research effort is being invested in developing different techniques which evaluate aircraft optimal trajectory and traffic synchronisation. Also, the inefficient use of the airspace using barometric altitude overall in the landing and takeoff phases or in Continuous Descent Approach (CDA) trajectories where currently it is necessary introduce the necessary reference setting (QNH or QFE). To solve this problem and to permit a better airspace management born the interest of this research. Where the main goals will be to evaluate the impact, weakness and strength of the use of geometrical altitude instead of the use of barometric altitude. Moreover, this dissertation propose the design a simplified trajectory simulator which is able to predict aircraft trajectories. The model is based on a three degrees of freedom aircraft point mass model that can adapt aircraft performance data from Base of Aircraft Data, and meteorological information. A feature of this trajectory simulator is to support the improvement of the strategic and pre-tactical trajectory planning in the future Air Traffic Management. To this end, the error of the tool (aircraft Trajectory Simulator) is measured by comparing its performance variables with actual flown trajectories obtained from Flight Data Recorder information. The trajectory simulator is validated by analysing the performance of different type of aircraft and considering different routes. A fuel consumption estimation error was identified and a correction is proposed for each type of aircraft model. In the future Air Traffic Management (ATM) system, the trajectory becomes the fundamental element of a new set of operating procedures collectively referred to as Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO). Thus, governmental institutions, academia, and industry have shown a renewed interest for the application of trajectory optimisation techniques in com- mercial aviation. The trajectory optimisation problem can be solved using optimal control methods. In this research we present and discuss the existing methods for solving optimal control problems focusing on direct collocation, which has received recent attention by the scientific community. In particular, two families of collocation methods are analysed, i.e., Hermite-Legendre-Gauss-Lobatto collocation and the pseudospectral collocation. They are first compared based on a benchmark case study: the minimum fuel trajectory problem with fixed arrival time. For the sake of scalability to more realistic problems, the different meth- ods are also tested based on a real Airbus 319 El Cairo-Madrid flight. Results show that pseudospectral collocation, which has shown to be numerically more accurate and computa- tionally much faster, is suitable for the type of problems arising in trajectory optimisation with application to ATM. Fast and accurate optimal trajectory can contribute properly to achieve the new challenges of the future ATM. As atmosphere uncertainties are one of the most important issues in the trajectory plan- ning, the final objective of this dissertation is to have a magnitude order of how different is the fuel consumption under different atmosphere condition. Is important to note that in the strategic phase planning the optimal trajectories are determined by meteorological predictions which differ from the moment of the flight. The optimal trajectories have shown savings of at least 500 [kg] in the majority of the atmosphere condition (different pressure, and temperature at Mean Sea Level, and different lapse rate temperature) with respect to the conventional procedure simulated at the same atmosphere condition.This results show that the implementation of optimal profiles are beneficial under the current Air traffic Management (ATM).

Automated end user-centred adaptation of web components through automated description logic-based reasoning

Context: This paper addresses one of the major end-user development (EUD) challenges, namely, how to pack today?s EUD support tools with composable elements. This would give end users better access to more components which they can use to build a solution tailored to their own needs. The success of later end-user software engineering (EUSE) activities largely depends on how many components each tool has and how adaptable components are to multiple problem domains. Objective: A system for automatically adapting heterogeneous components to a common development environment would offer a sizeable saving of time and resources within the EUD support tool construction process. This paper presents an automated adaptation system for transforming EUD components to a standard format. Method: This system is based on the use of description logic. Based on a generic UML2 data model, this description logic is able to check whether an end-user component can be transformed to this modeling language through subsumption or as an instance of the UML2 model. Besides it automatically finds a consistent, non-ambiguous and finite set of XSLT mappings to automatically prepare data in order to leverage the component as part of a tool that conforms to the target UML2 component model. Results: The proposed system has been successfully applied to components from four prominent EUD tools. These components were automatically converted to a standard format. In order to validate the proposed system, rich internet applications (RIA) used as an operational support system for operators at a large services company were developed using automatically adapted standard format components. These RIAs would be impossible to develop using each EUD tool separately. Conclusion: The positive results of applying our system for automatically adapting components from current tool catalogues are indicative of the system?s effectiveness. Use of this system could foster the growth of web EUD component catalogues, leveraging a vast ecosystem of user-centred SaaS to further current EUSE trends.

Spatial analysis of geometric design consistency and road sight distance

Because of the high number of crashes occurring on highways, it is necessary to intensify the search for new tools that help in understanding their causes. This research explores the use of a geographic information system (GIS) for an integrated analysis, taking into account two accident-related factors: design consistency (DC) (based on vehicle speed) and available sight distance (ASD) (based on visibility). Both factors require specific GIS software add-ins, which are explained. Digital terrain models (DTMs), vehicle paths, road centerlines, a speed prediction model, and crash data are integrated in the GIS. The usefulness of this approach has been assessed through a study of more than 500 crashes. From a regularly spaced grid, the terrain (bare ground) has been modeled through a triangulated irregular network (TIN). The length of the roads analyzed is greater than 100 km. Results have shown that DC and ASD could be related to crashes in approximately 4% of cases. In order to illustrate the potential of GIS, two crashes are fully analyzed: a car rollover after running off road on the right side and a rear-end collision of two moving vehicles. Although this procedure uses two software add-ins that are available only for ArcGIS, the study gives a practical demonstration of the suitability of GIS for conducting integrated studies of road safety.