Economic evaluation of school plans in a master city planning

A model is presented for simulation and economic evaluation of school plans within the framework of master city planning. The model has been applied to the plans for a Swedish city, Västeras, and some illustrative results are reported.

The impact of the economic crisis and policy actions on GHG emissions from road transport in Spain

Road traffic is the greatest contributor to the carbon footprint of the transport sector and reducing it has become one of the main targets of sustainable transport policies. An analysis of the main factors influencing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is essential for designing new energy- and environmentally efficient strategies for the road transport. This paper addresses this need by (i) identifying factors which influence the carbon footprint, including traffic activity, fuel economy and socioeconomic development; and (ii) proposing a methodological framework which uses Modified Laspeyres Index decomposition to analyze the effect of important drivers on the changes in emissions of road transport in Spain during the period from 1990 to 2010. The results demonstrate that the country׳s economic growth has been closely linked to the rise in GHG emissions. The innovative contribution of this paper is the special analysis of the changes in mobility patterns and GHG emissions during the economic crisis, when, for the first time, Spanish road traffic emissions decreased. The reduction of road transport and improved energy efficiency has been powerful contributors to this decrease, demonstrating the effectiveness of energy-saving measures. On the basis of this analysis, several tailored policy recommendations have been suggested for future implementation.

A model for the economic evaluation of master city plans: a pilot study of Västerås, Sweden

The paper introduces the framework, problems addressed, objective function, types of variables and so on for a model designed to facilitate the economic evaluation of master city plans. The model presented here has been used in a pilot study of the city of Vasteras, Sweden. It consists of three main parts, data, results and method. Some conclusions are drawn.

Providing 30Mbit/s to Spain’s final third. -A techno-economic assessment.

Since the Digital Agenda for Europe released the Europe2020 flagship, Member States are looking for ways of fulfilling their agreed commitments to fast and ultrafast internet deployment. However, Europe is not a homogenous reality. The economic, geographic, social and demographic features of each country make it a highly diverse region to develop best practices over Next Generation Access Networks (NGAN) deployments. There are special concerns about NGAN deployments for “the final third”, as referred to the last 25% of the country’s population who, usually, live in rural areas. This paper assesses, through a techno-economic analysis, the access cost of providing over 30 Mbps broadband for the final third of Spain`s population in municipalities, which are classified into area types, referred to as geotypes. Fixed and mobile technologies are compared in order to determine which is the most cost-effective technology for each geotype. The demographic limit for fixed networks (cable, fibre and copper) is also discussed. The assessment focuses on the supply side and the results show the access network cost only. The research completes a previous published assessment (Techno-economic analysis of next generation access networks roll-out. The case of platform competition, regulation and public policy in Spain) by including the LTE scenario. The LTE scenario is dimensioned to provide 30 Mbps (best effort) broadband, considering a network take-up of 25%. The Rocket techno-economic model is used to assess a ten-year study period deployment. Nevertheless, the deployment must start in 2014 and be completed by 2020, in order to fulfil the Digital Agenda’s goals. The feasibility of the deployment is defined as the ability to recoup the investment at the end of the study period. This ability is highly related to network take-up and, therefore, to service adoption. Network deployment in each geotype is compared with the cost of the deployment in the Urban geotype and broadband expected penetration rates for clarity and simplicity. Debating the cost-effective deployments for each geotype, while addressing the Digital Agenda’s goals regarding fast and ultrafast internet, is the main purpose of this paper. At the end of the last year, the independent Spanish regulation agency released the Spain broadband coverage report at the first half of 2013. This document claimed that 59% and 52% of Spain’s population was already covered by NGAN capable of providing 30 Mbps and 100 Mbps broadband respectively. HFC, with 47% of population coverage, and FTTH, with 14%, were considered as a 100 Mbps capable NGAN. Meanwhile VDSL, with 12% of the population covered, was the only NGAN network considered for the 30 Mbps segment. Despite not being an NGAN, the 99% population coverage of HSPA networks was also noted in the report. Since mobile operators are also required to provide 30 Mbps broadband to 90% of the population in rural areas by the end of 2020, mobile networks will play a significant role on the achievement of the 30 Mbps goal in Spain’s final third. The assessment indicates the cost of the deployment per cumulative households coverage with 4 different NGANs: FTTH, HFC, VDSL and LTE. Research shows that an investment ranging from €2,700 (VDSL) to €5,400 (HFC) million will be needed to cover the first half of the population with any fixed technology assessed. The results state that at least €3,000 million will be required to cover these areas with the least expensive technology (LTE). However, if we consider the throughput that fixed networks could provide and achievement of the Digital Agenda’s objectives, fixed network deployments are recommended for up to 90% of the population. Fibre and cable deployments could cover up to a maximum of 88% of the Spanish population cost efficiently. As there are some concerns about the service adoption, we recommend VDSL and mobile network deployments for the final third of the population. Despite LTE being able to provide the most economical roll-out, VDSL could also provide 50 Mbps from 75% to 90% of the Spanish population cost efficiently. For this population gap, facility based competition between VDSL providers and LTE providers must be encouraged. Regarding 90% to 98.5% of the Spanish population, LTE deployment is the most appropriate. Since costumers in less populated the municipalities are more sensitive to the cost of the service, we consider that a single network deployment could be most appropriate. Finally, it has become clear that it is not possible to deliver 30Mbps to the final 1.5% of the population cost-efficiently and adoption predictions are not optimistic either. As there are other broadband alternatives able to deliver up to 20 Mbps, in the authors’ opinion, it is not necessary to cover the extreme rural areas, where public financing would be required.

Analysis of the impact of globalization and economic growth on food security in developing countries

A pesar de los importantes avances en la reducción del hambre, la seguridad alimentaria continúa siendo un reto de dimensión internacional. La seguridad alimentaria es un concepto amplio y multidimensional, cuyo análisis abarca distintas escalas y horizontes temporales. Dada su complejidad, la identificación de las causas de la inseguridad alimentaria y la priorización de las medias para abordarlas, son dos cuestiones que suscitan un intenso debate en la actualidad. El objetivo de esta tesis es evaluar el impacto de la globalización y el crecimiento económico en la seguridad alimentaria en los países en desarrollo, desde una perspectiva macro y un horizonte temporal a largo plazo. La influencia de la globalización se aborda de una manera secuencial. En primer lugar, se analiza la relación entre la inversión público-privada en infraestructuras y las exportaciones agrarias. A continuación, se estudia el impacto de las exportaciones agrarias en los indicadores de seguridad alimentaria. El estudio del impacto del crecimiento económico aborda los cambios paralelos en la distribución de la renta, y cómo la inequidad influye en el comportamiento de la seguridad alimentaria nacional. Además, se analiza en qué medida el crecimiento económico contribuye a acelerar el proceso de mejora de la seguridad alimentaria. Con el fin de conseguir los objetivos mencionados, se llevan a cabo varios análisis econométricos basados en datos de panel, en el que se combinan datos de corte transversal de 52 países y datos temporales comprendidos en el periodo 1991-2012. Se analizan tanto variables en niveles como variables en tasas de cambio anual. Se aplican los modelos de estimación de efectos variables y efectos fijos, ambos en niveles y en primeras diferencias. La tesis incluye cuatro tipos de modelos econométricos, cada uno de ellos con sus correspondientes pruebas de robustez y especificaciones. Los resultados matizan la importancia de la globalización y el crecimiento económico como mecanismos de mejora de la seguridad alimentaria en los países en desarrollo. Se obtienen dos conclusiones relativas a la globalización. En primer lugar, los resultados sugieren que la promoción de las inversiones privadas en infraestructuras contribuye a aumentar las exportaciones agrarias. En segundo lugar, se observa que las exportaciones agrarias pueden tener un impacto negativo en los indicadores de seguridad alimentaria. La combinación de estas dos conclusiones sugiere que la apertura comercial y financiera no contribuye por sí misma a la mejora de la seguridad alimentaria en los países en desarrollo. La apertura internacional de los países en desarrollo ha de ir acompañada de políticas e inversiones que desarrollen sectores productivos de alto valor añadido, que fortalezcan la economía nacional y reduzcan su dependencia exterior. En relación al crecimiento económico, a pesar del incuestionable hecho de que el crecimiento económico es una condición necesaria para reducir los niveles de subnutrición, no es una condición suficiente. Se han identificado tres estrategias adicionales que han de acompañar al crecimiento económico con el fin de intensificar su impacto positivo sobre la subnutrición. Primero, es necesario que el crecimiento económico sea acompañado de una distribución más equitativa de los ingresos. Segundo, el crecimiento económico ha de reflejarse en un aumento de inversiones en salud, agua y saneamiento y educación. Se observa que, incluso en ausencia de crecimiento económico, mejoras en el acceso a agua potable contribuyen a reducir los niveles de población subnutrida. Tercero, el crecimiento económico sostenible en el largo plazo parece tener un mayor impacto positivo sobre la seguridad alimentaria que el crecimiento económico más volátil o inestable en el corto plazo. La estabilidad macroeconómica se identifica como una condición necesaria para alcanzar una mayor mejora en la seguridad alimentaria, incluso habiéndose mejorado la equidad en la distribución de los ingresos. Por último, la tesis encuentra que los países en desarrollo analizados han experimentado diferentes trayectorias no lineales en su proceso de mejora de sus niveles de subnutrición. Los resultados sugieren que un mayor nivel inicial de subnutrición y el crecimiento económico son responsables de una respuesta más rápida al reto de la mejora de la seguridad alimentaria. ABSTRACT Despite the significant reductions of hunger, food security still remains a global challenge. Food security is a wide concept that embraces multiple dimensions, and has spatial-temporal scales. Because of its complexity, the identification of the drivers underpinning food insecurity and the prioritization of measures to address them are a subject of intensive debate. This thesis attempts to assess the impact of globalization and economic growth on food security in developing countries with a macro level scale (country) and using a long-term approach. The influence of globalization is addressed in a sequential way. First, the impact of public-private investment in infrastructure on agricultural exports in developing countries is analyzed. Secondly, an assessment is conducted to determine the impact of agricultural exports on food security indicators. The impact of economic growth focuses on the parallel changes in income inequality and how the income distribution influences countries' food security performance. Furthermore, the thesis analyzes to what extent economic growth helps accelerating food security improvements. To address the above mentioned goals, various econometric models are formulated. Models use panel data procedures combining cross-sectional data of 52 countries and time series data from 1991 to 2012. Yearly data are expressed both in levels and in changes. The estimation models applied are random effects estimation and fixed effects estimations, both in levels and in first differences. The thesis includes four families of econometric models, each with its own set of robustness checks and specifications. The results qualify the relevance of globalization and economic growth as enabling mechanisms for improving food security in developing countries. Concerning globalization, two main conclusions can be drawn. First, results showed that enhancing foreign private investment in infrastructures contributes to increase agricultural exports. Second, agricultural exports appear to have a negative impact on national food security indicators. These two conclusions suggest that trade and financial openness per se do not contribute directly to improve food security in development countries. Both measures should be accompanied by investments and policies to support the development of national high value productive sectors, to strengthen the domestic economy and reduce its external dependency. Referring to economic growth, despite the unquestionable fact that income growth is a pre-requisite for reducing undernourishment, results suggest that it is a necessary but not a sufficient condition. Three additional strategies should accompany economic growth to intensifying its impact on food security. Firstly, it is necessary that income growth should be accompanied by a better distribution of income. Secondly, income growth needs to be followed by investments and policies in health, sanitation and education to improve food security. Even if economic growth falters, sustained improvements in the access to drinking water may still give rise to reductions in the percentage of undernourished people. And thirdly, long-term economic growth appears to have a greater impact on reducing hunger than growth regimes that combine periods of growth peaks followed by troughs. Macroeconomic stability is a necessary condition for accelerating food security. Finally, the thesis finds that the developing countries analyzed have experienced different non-linear paths toward improving food security. Results also show that a higher initial level of undernourishment and economic growth result in a faster response for improving food security.

The environmental and economic effects of innovative measures in urban parcels delivery

The main scope of this research is to identify and evaluate solutions to redesign the parcels delivery logistic process to achieve higher level of quality, lower operational costs, energy consumptions and air pollution. The study is starting from the analysis of the delivery process managed by a leader company operating in Rome. Main delivery flows, personnel and fleet management costs, quality performances and environmental impacts are investigated. The results of this analysis are benchmarked with other European situations. On the basis of the feedback of this analysis, a set of operational measures, potentially able tackle the objectives, are identified and assessed by means of a simulative approach. The assessment is based on environmental and economic indicators allowing the comparison between new and reference scenarios from the viewpoints of the key players: operator, customer and Society. Moreover, the operational measures are combined into alternative packages by looking for the sets capable to maximize the benefits for the key players. The methodology, tested on Rome case study, is general and flexible enough to be extended to parcels delivery problem in different urban contexts, as well as to similar urban distribution problems (e.g. press, food, security, school)

Economic impacts of climate change on agrifood markets: A bio-economic approach with a focus on the EU

Projections for world food production and prices play a crucial role to evaluate and tackle future food security challenges. Understanding how these projections will be affected by climate change is the main objective of this study. By means of a bio-economic approach we assess the economic impacts of climate change on agrifood markets, providing both a global analysis and a regionalised evaluation within the EU. To account for uncertainty, we analyse the IPCC emission scenario A1B for the 2030 horizon under several simulation scenarios that differ in (1) the climate projection, from HadleyCM3 (warm) or ECHAM5 (mild) global circulation models; and (2) the influence of CO2 effects. Results of this study indicate that agrifood market projections to 2030 are very sensitive to climate change uncertainties and, in particular to the magnitude of the carbon fertilization effect.

Climate Change, Water Scarcity in Agriculture and The Country-Level Economic Impacts. A Multimarket Analysis

Climate Change, Water Scarcity in Agriculture and the Country-Level Economic Impacts. A Multimarket Analysis. Abstract: Agriculture could be one of the most vulnerable economic sectors to the impacts of climate change in the coming decades. Considering the critical role that water plays for agricultural production, any shock in water availability will have great implications for agricultural production, land allocation, and agricultural prices. In this paper, an Agricultural Multimarket model is developed to analyze climate change impacts in developing countries, accounting for the uncertainty associated with the impacts of climate change. The model has a structure flexible enough to represent local conditions, resource availability, and market conditions. The results suggest different economic consequences of climate change depending on the specific activity, with many distributional effects across regions