Montecarlo method applied to comparison of tenders in construction projects.

La comparación de las diferentes ofertas presentadas en la licitación de un proyecto,con el sistema de contratación tradicional de medición abierta y precio unitario cerrado, requiere herramientas de análisis que sean capaces de discriminar propuestas que teniendo un importe global parecido pueden presentar un impacto económico muy diferente durante la ejecución. Una de las situaciones que no se detecta fácilmente con los métodos tradicionales es el comportamiento del coste real frente a las variaciones de las cantidades realmente ejecutadas en obra respecto de las estimadas en el proyecto. Este texto propone abordar esta situación mediante un sistema de análisis cuantitativo del riesgo como el método de Montecarlo. Este procedimiento, como es sabido, consiste en permitir que los datos de entrada que definen el problema varíen unas funciones de probabilidad definidas, generar un gran número de casos de prueba y tratar los resultados estadísticamente para obtener los valores finales más probables,con los parámetros necesarios para medir la fiabilidad de la estimación. Se presenta un modelo para la comparación de ofertas, desarrollado de manera que puede aplicarse en casos reales aplicando a los datos conocidos unas condiciones de variación que sean fáciles de establecer por los profesionales que realizan estas tareas. ABSTRACT: The comparison of the different bids in the tender for a project, with the traditional contract system based on unit rates open to and re-measurement, requires analysis tools that are able to discriminate proposals having a similar overall economic impact, but that might show a very different behaviour during the execution of the works. One situation not easily detected by traditional methods is the reaction of the actual cost to the changes in the exact quantity of works finally executed respect of the work estimated in the project. This paper intends to address this situation through the Monte Carlo method, a system of quantitative risk analysis. This procedure, as is known, is allows the input data defining the problem to vary some within well defined probability functions, generating a large number of test cases, the results being statistically treated to obtain the most probable final values, with the rest of the parameters needed to measure the reliability of the estimate. We present a model for the comparison of bids, designed in a way that it can be applied in real cases, based on data and assumptions that are easy to understand and set up by professionals who wish to perform these tasks.

Analysis of alternative tendering mechanisms for transportation Public-Private Partnerships

This paper describes a theoretical model based primarily on transaction costs, for comparing the various tendering mechanisms used for transportation Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects. In particular, the model contrasts negotiated procedures with the open procedure, as defined by the current European Union legislation on public tendering. The model includes both ex ante transaction costs (borne during the tendering stage) and ex post transaction costs (such as enforcement costs, re-negotiation costs, and costs arising from litigation between partners), explaining the trade-off between them. Generally speaking, it is assumed that the open procedure implies lower transaction costs ex ante, while the negotiated procedure reduces the probability of the appearance of new contingencies not foreseen in the contract, hence diminishing the expected value of transaction costs ex post. Therefore, the balance between ex ante and ex post transaction costs is the main criterion for deciding whether the open or negotiated procedure would be optimal. Notwithstanding, empirical evidence currently exists only on ex ante transaction costs in transportation infrastructure projects. This evidence has shown a relevant difference between the two procedures as far as ex ante costs are concerned, favouring the open procedure. The model developed in this paper also demonstrates that a larger degree of complexity in a contract does not unequivocally favour the use of a negotiated procedure. Only in those cases dealing with very innovative projects, where important dimensions of the quality of the asset or service are not verifiable, may we observe an advantage in favour of the negotiated procedure. The bottom line is that we find it difficult to justify the employment of negotiated procedures in most transportation PPP contracts, especially in the field of roads. Nevertheless, the field remains open for future empirical work and research on the levels of transaction costs borne ex post in PPP contracts, as well as on the probabilities of such costs appearing under any of the procurement procedures.

Empirical analysis of traffic volume for the application of the options theory to highway concessions

*************************************************************************************** EL WCTR es un Congreso de reconocido prestigio internacional en el ámbito de la investigación del transporte que hasta el 2010 publicaba sus libros de abstracts con ISBN. Por ello consideramos que debería seguir teníendose en cuenta para los indicadores de calidad ******************************************************************************************* Investment projects in the field of transportation infrastructures have a high degree of uncertainty and require an important amount of resources. In highway concessions in particular, the calculation of the Net Present Value (NPV) of the project by means of the discount of cash flows, may lead to erroneous results when the project incorporates certain flexibility. In these cases, the theory of real options is an alternative tool for the valuation of concessions. When the variable that generates uncertainty (in our case, the traffic) follows a random walk (or Geometric Brownian Motion), we can calculate the value of the options embedded in the contract starting directly from the process followed by that variable. This procedure notably simplifies the calculation method. In order to test the hypothesis of the evolution of traffic as a Geometric Brownian Motion, we have used the available series of traffic in Spanish highways, and we have applied the Augmented Dickey-Fuller approach, which is the most widely used test for this kind of study. The main result of the analysis is that we cannot reject the hypothesis that traffic follows a Geometric Brownian Motion in the majority of both toll highways and free highways in Spain.

Desarrollo de un procedimiento para la observación y caracterización mecánica de células sobre sustratos opacos mediante microscopía de fuerzas atómicas : aplicación al estudio de linfocitos

Las células en los tejidos biológicos están continuamente sometidas a estímulos físicos tales como la presión hidrostática y esfuerzos de tracción, compresión o cortante, entre otros. La importancia de los estímulos mecánicos en el comportamiento de las células se ha reconocido recientemente al comprobarse cómo la naturaleza de estas fuerzas puede cambiar en patologías tales como las enfermedades vasculares o el cáncer. En respuesta a estos cambios, las células reaccionan modificando desde su forma o aspecto hasta su ciclo celular. Consecuentemente, el interés por el comportamiento mecánico de las células ha experimentado un auge creciente que ha requerido el desarrollo de varias técnicas de caracterización. En este contexto, se puede afirmar que una de las técnicas que ha irrumpido con más fuerza en esta nueva área, situada entre el mundo biológico y el físico, es la microscopía de fuerza atómica. En esta Tesis se ha abordado el estudio mediante microscopía de fuerza atómica de linfocitos de ratón que constituyen un linaje celular especialmente difícil de caracterizar mediante esta técnica por su tamaño y naturaleza no adherente. Los linfocitos, como actores fundamentales del sistema inmune, tienen gran importancia en la determinación de la respuesta que un organismo desencadena ante la presencia de un biomaterial. Bajo esta premisa, y como condición previa a la caracterización de los linfocitos, ha sido necesario el desarrollo de una metodología robusta y de amplia aplicabilidad que permita el estudio de células sobre biomateriales. Finalmente y con el objetivo de correlacionar el comportamiento mecánico de los linfocitos con alguna característica fisiológica relevante, se ha analizado la hipótesis de que el comportamiento mecánico pueda ser utilizado como marcador de la edad biológica. Consecuentemente se ha abordado el estudio del comportamiento mecánico de los linfocitos clasificados por grupos de edad, de manera que se han obtenido los primeros resultados que indican cómo puede manifestarse el proceso de inmunosenescencia -depresión del sistema inmune relacionada con el envejecimiento- en el comportamiento mecánico de las células del sistema inmune. Cells within tissues are continuously exposed to physical forces including hydrostatic pressure, shear stress, and compression and tension forces. The relevance of these mechanical stimuli has recently been recognised by different works in which significant changes were observed in these forces when they were measued in individuals affected by cardiovasvular diseases or cancer. Cells may alter their orientation, shape, internal constitution, contract, migrate, adhere, modify the synthesis and degradation of extracellular constituents, or even their life cycle in response to perturbations in their mechanical environment. As a consequence of this, the attention in cell mechanical behavior has undergone a significant thrust and novel techniques have been developed. In this context, atomic force microscopy has become a basic tool for the progress of this field. In this Thesis, the mechanical behavior of living murine T-lymphocytes was assessed by atomic force microscopy. Lymphocytes play a main role in the immune system of the individual and, consequently, in the immune response triggered by the presence of a biomaterial. The observation and characterization of the lymphocytes required the development of a robust experimental procedure that allowed overcoming the difficulties related to the analysis of this cell lineage, in particular their relatively large size and non-adherent character. These procedures could be easily transferred to other non-adherent cell lineages. Finally, to check the viability of developed method, we study the lymphocyte mechanical behavior as a function of the murine ageing. The obtained data represent a first step in the knowledge about how mechanical stimuli can affect the age-dependent decrease in immunological competence, i.e., the immunosenescence.

LED bulbs technical specification and testing procedure for solar home systems

The definition of technical specifications and the corresponding laboratory procedures are necessary steps in order to assure the quality of the devices prior to be installed in Solar Home Systems (SHS). To clarify and unify criteria a European project supported the development of the Universal Technical Standard for Solar Home Systems (UTSfSHS). Its principles were to generate simple and affordable technical requirements to be optimized in order to facilitate the implementation of tests with basic and simple laboratory tools even on the same SHS electrification program countries. These requirements cover the main aspects of this type of installations and its lighting chapter was developed based on the most used technology at that time: fluorescent tubes and CFLs. However, with the consolidation of the new LED solid state lighting devices, particular attention is being given to this matter and new procedures are required. In this work we develop a complete set of technical specifications and test procedures that have been designed within the frame of the UTSfSHS, based on an intense review of the scientific and technical publications related to LED lighting and their practical application. They apply to lamp reliability, performance and safety under normal, extreme and abnormal operating conditions as a simple but complete quality meter tool for any LED bulb.

Evaluation of the surface free energy of plant surfaces: toward standardizing the procedure

Plant surfaces have been found to have a major chemical and physical heterogeneity and play a key protecting role against multiple stress factors. During the last decade, there is a raising interest in examining plant surface properties for the development of biomimetic materials. Contact angle measurement of different liquids is a common tool for characterizing synthetic materials, which is just beginning to be applied to plant surfaces. However, some studies performed with polymers and other materials showed that for the same surface, different surface free energy values may be obtained depending on the number and nature of the test liquids analyzed, materials' properties, and surface free energy calculation methods employed. For 3 rough and 3 rather smooth plant materials, we calculated their surface free energy using 2 or 3 test liquids and 3 different calculation methods. Regardless of the degree of surface roughness, the methods based on 2 test liquids often led to the under- or over-estimation of surface free energies as compared to the results derived from the 3-Liquids method. Given the major chemical and structural diversity of plant surfaces, it is concluded that 3 different liquids must be considered for characterizing materials of unknown physico-chemical properties, which may significantly differ in terms of polar and dispersive interactions. Since there are just few surface free energy data of plant surfaces with the aim of standardizing the calculation procedure and interpretation of the results among for instance, different species, organs, or phenological states, we suggest the use of 3 liquids and the mean surface tension values provided in this study.

Las Opciones Reales en los Expedientes de Regulación de Empleo

Las empresas en situación económica negativa, recurren en España a los Expedientes de Regulación de Empleo que es la figura legal que permite ajustar sus plantillas y cuya utilización se acrecienta en épocas de crisis. El objetivo de esta investigación se focaliza en la integración de la Teoría de Opciones Reales en los proyectos organizativos de recursos humanos, en particular en el estudio y aplicación de la opción de contracción y de la opción de aplazamiento a los proyectos de desarrollo de los Expedientes de Regulación de Empleo. Las opciones reales son una herramienta de gestión, novedosa y contrastada, que posibilita realizar la valoración de los Expedientes de Regulación de Empleo tomando en consideración las incertidumbres futuras, lo que permite cuantificar mejor el resultado de la decisión y supone un avance sobre la valoración realizada de forma estática. Dos aspectos clave ha sido necesario resolver. En primer lugar determinar la fuente de incertidumbre que ponga en valor las opciones reales para este tipo de proyectos y como consecuencia desarrollar los procedimientos para obtener el valor de la opción. La puesta en valor de la opción de contracción permite, a partir de la consideración de la demanda como factor de incertidumbre, desarrollar un modelo que proporciona el valor óptimo del número de contratos de trabajo a extinguir, de modo que sitúa a la organización en la mejor posición para la toma de decisiones. La resolución del modelo se logra con la ayuda de la herramienta “The Newsvendor Model”, que facilita la obtención el valor óptimo. En la aplicación de la opción de aplazamiento se ha concluido asimismo, que la volatilidad de la demanda es la fuente de incertidumbre que hace viable la opción y a partir de dicha incertidumbre se ha desarrollado un procedimiento basado en el árbol binomial que permite obtener su valor. Una vez desarrollados los dos modelos para las opciones de contracción y aplazamiento, se ha elaborado un modelo conjunto con ambas opciones, integrando los resultados obtenidos en cada caso. Para validar los modelos obtenidos se presenta su aplicación al caso real de una empresa en situación económica negativa que requiere la necesidad de llevar a cabo un Expediente de Regulación de Empleo, lo que ha permitido comprobar la utilidad de dichos desarrollos, al obtener resultados que facilitan la toma de decisiones y que presentan soluciones que pueden ser más equilibradas para los trabajadores de la empresa, aspecto clave a tener en cuenta, dado el coste personal, familiar y social de este tipo de proyectos. La integración de las opciones reales en la gestión de recursos humanos tiene un amplio campo de aplicación, dadas las diferentes inversiones que se pueden llevar a cabo sobre el capital humano. Aunque esta investigación se ha focalizado en la opcionalidad de las inversiones para el ajuste de plantilla, existen otro tipo de inversiones en recursos humanos, como son las dedicadas a formación, motivación, adecuación o incorporación de personal, que también estarán sujetas a opcionalidad si existen incertidumbres a futuro. Con el objetivo de avanzar en el estudio y aplicación de las opciones reales a estas inversiones, se presenta un marco conceptual que identifica las bases de partida en lo referente a los retornos de las inversiones y las incertidumbres futuras. Con los resultados obtenidos en esta investigación se entiende que se ha conseguido el objetivo de aplicar la Teoría de Opciones Reales a los Expedientes de Regulación de Empleo y con ello establecer la posibilidad de mejorar las implicaciones sociales de estos proyectos dentro de la empresa y en la sociedad. ABSTRACT During crisis times, like the one Spain has been going through on the last years, the Collective Dismissal Procedure is an important issue to be considered within companies that are having a negative economic situation. This research focuses on the integration of the Real Options Theory for organizational projects in the management of human resources, and particularly the study and inclusion of the option to contract and the deferral option in Collective Dismissal Procedures. The Real Options Theory, an innovative management tool that has been proven as correct, help to improve the assessment of the Collective Dismissal Procedures using the dynamic demand instead of the static demand, giving a better quantification of the decision that is going to be taken. Two main issues which are hoped to be resolve are examined: the search for a source of uncertainty to make the real options viable for this type of projects, and consequently the development of a procedure to obtain the value of the option. The option to contract allows, from the consideration of the demand as a factor of uncertainty, to develop a model obtaining the optimal value in the reduction of the workforce, therefore allowing the organization to place itself in the best position for the decision making. The resolution of this model is achieved with the help of "The Newsvendor Model" tool, which facilitates obtaining the optimal value. The analysis performed in the deferral option also concluded that the volatility of demand is the source of the uncertainty that makes the option viable and the procedure developed by the binomial tree is the tool that enables the value of the option to be found. Once developed two models for contraction and deferment options, a joint model has been developed including both options by integrating the results obtained in each case. To validate the models, the real case of a company in negative economic situation requiring the need to carry out a procedure for collective redundancies is applied. This has demonstrated the usefulness of this kind of development that can deliver results to improve the decision making and provide more balanced solutions for company employees, key consideration given the impact on personal, family life and social environment of these Collective Dismissal Procedures. The integration of real options in the management of human resources has broad scope, given the different investments that can be performed on the human capital. Although this research has focused on the optionality of investments for downsizing, there are other investments in human resources for training, motivation, arrangement or incorporation of staff that are also subject to optionality if there are future uncertainties. With the aim of advancing the study and application of real options to these investments, a conceptual framework is presented that identifies the basis of research in terms of the investment returns and future uncertainties. With the results obtained on this research it is clearly defined the objectives for which this work was started for, the application of the Real Options Theory to the Collective Dismissal Procedure. And thereby achieve the final goal of improving the social impact of these projects within a company and society.

Haptically assisted connection procedure for the reconstruction of dendritic spines

Dendritic spines are thin protrusions that cover the dendritic surface of numerous neurons in the brain and whose function seems to play a key role in neural circuits. The correct segmentation of those structures is difficult due to their small size and the resulting spines can appear incomplete. This paper presents a four-step procedure for the complete reconstruction of dendritic spines. The haptically driven procedure is intended to work as an image processing stage before the automatic segmentation step giving the final representation of the dendritic spines. The procedure is designed to allow both the navigation and the volume image editing to be carried out using a haptic device. A use case employing our procedure together with a commercial software package for the segmentation stage is illustrated. Finally, the haptic editing is evaluated in two experiments; the first experiment concerns the benefits of the force feedback and the second checks the suitability of the use of a haptic device as input. In both cases, the results shows that the procedure improves the editing accuracy.

A procedure to track vibration modes under changing external factors: application to a pedestrian bridge

A low-cost vibration monitoring system has been developed and installed on an urban steel- plated stress-ribbon footbridge. The system continuously measures: the acceleration (using 18 triaxial MEMS accelerometers distributed along the structure), the ambient temperature and the wind velocity and direction. Automated output-only modal parameter estimation based on the Stochastic Subspace Identification (SSI) is carried out in order to extract the modal parameters, i.e., the natural frequencies, damping ratios and modal shapes. Thus, this paper analyzes the time evolution of the modal parameters over a whole-year data monitoring. Firstly, for similar environmental/operational factors, the uncertainties associated to the time window size used are studied and quantified. Secondly, a methodology to track the vibration modes has been established since several of them with closely-spaced natural frequencies are identified. Thirdly, the modal parameters have been correlated against external factors. It has been shown that this stress-ribbon structure is highly sensitive to temperature variation (frequency changes of more than 20%) with strongly seasonal and daily trends

The deferral option in the collective dismissal procedure. La opción de aplazamiento en los expedientes de regulación de empleo.

The work in this paper focuses on the integration of the real options theory for organizational projects in the management of Human Resources, and particularly on the inclusion of the deferral option in collective dismissal procedures. This option has been studied and developed to be applied to ?Expediente de regulación de empleo?, which is the legal form existing in Spain for the collective termination of employment contracts and which organizations turn to when confronted with a negative financial situation, as a way of maintaining their viability. Two main issues which it is hoped to resolve are examined: the search for a source of uncertainty to make the deferral option viable for this type of projects, and the development of a procedure to obtain the value of the option and therefore facilitate decision making. The analysis performed has enabled us to state that the volatility of demand is the source of uncertainty that makes the option viable. The procedure developed by the binomial tree, which is determined by the evolution of demand, is the tool that enables the value of the option to be found.

Topographical and mechanical characterization of living eukaryotic cells on opaque substrates: development of a general procedure and its application to the study of non-adherent lymphocytes

The mechanical behavior of living murine T-lymphocytes was assessed by atomic force microscopy (AFM). A robust experimental procedure was developed to overcome some features of lymphocytes, in particular their spherical shape and non-adherent character. The procedure included the immobilization of the lymphocytes on amine-functionalized substrates, the use of hydrodynamic effects on the deflection of the AFM cantilever to monitor the approaching, and the use of the jumping mode for obtaining the images. Indentation curves were analyzed according to Hertz's model for contact mechanics. The calculated values of the elastic modulus are consistent both when considering the results obtained from a single lymphocyte and when comparing the curves recorded from cells of different specimens