A dynamic factor model for mid-term forecasting of wind power generation

The main objective of this paper is the development and application of multivariate time series models for forecasting aggregated wind power production in a country or region. Nowadays, in Spain, Denmark or Germany there is an increasing penetration of this kind of renewable energy, somehow to reduce energy dependence on the exterior, but always linked with the increaseand uncertainty affecting the prices of fossil fuels. The disposal of accurate predictions of wind power generation is a crucial task both for the System Operator as well as for all the agents of the Market. However, the vast majority of works rarely onsider forecasting horizons longer than 48 hours, although they are of interest for the system planning and operation. In this paper we use Dynamic Factor Analysis, adapting and modifying it conveniently, to reach our aim: the computation of accurate forecasts for the aggregated wind power production in a country for a forecasting horizon as long as possible, particularly up to 60 days (2 months). We illustrate this methodology and the results obtained for real data in the leading country in wind power production: Denmark

Power-frequency control of hydropower plants with long penstocks in isolated systems with wind generation

In this paper the power-frequency control of hydropower plants with long penstocks is addressed. In such configuration the effects of pressure waves cannot be neglected and therefore commonly used criteria for adjustment of PID governors would not be appropriate. A second-order Π model of the turbine-penstock based on a lumped parameter approach is considered. A correction factor is introduced in order to approximate the model frequency response to the continuous case in the frequency interval of interest. Using this model, several criteria are analysed for adjusting the PI governor of a hydropower plant operating in an isolated system. Practical criteria for adjusting the PI governor are given. The results are applied to a real case of a small island where the objective is to achieve a generation 100% renewable (wind and hydro). Frequency control is supposed to be provided exclusively by the hydropower plant. It is verified that the usual criterion for tuning the PI controller of isolated hydro plants gives poor results. However, with the new proposed adjustment, the time response is considerably improved

Directional Geodesic Active Contours

We present a non-conformal metric that generalizes the geodesic active contours approach for image segmentation. The new metric is obtained by adding to the Euclidean metric an additional term that penalizes the misalignment of the curve with the image gradient and multiplying the resulting metric by a conformal factor that depends on the edge intensity. In this way, a closer fitting to the edge direction results. The provided experimental results address the computation of the geodesics of the new metric by applying a gradient descent to externally provided curves. The good performance of the proposed techniques is demonstrated in comparison with other active contours methods.

PV self-consumption optimization with storage and Active DSM for the residential sector

With the rising prices of the retail electricity and the decreasing cost of the PV technology, grid parity with commercial electricity will soon become a reality in Europe. This fact, together with less attractive PV feed-in-tariffs in the near future and incentives to promote self-consumption suggest, that new operation modes for the PV Distributed Generation should be explored; differently from the traditional approach which is only based on maximizing the exported electricity to the grid. The smart metering is experiencing a growth in Europe and the United States but the possibilities of its use are still uncertain, in our system we propose their use to manage the storage and to allow the user to know their electrical power and energy balances. The ADSM has many benefits studied previously but also it has important challenges, in this paper we can observe and ADSM implementation example where we propose a solution to these challenges. In this paper we study the effects of the Active Demand-Side Management (ADSM) and storage systems in the amount of consumed local electrical energy. It has been developed on a prototype of a self-sufficient solar house called “MagicBox” equipped with grid connection, PV generation, lead–acid batteries, controllable appliances and smart metering. We carried out simulations for long-time experiments (yearly studies) and real measures for short and mid-time experiments (daily and weekly studies). Results show the relationship between the electricity flows and the storage capacity, which is not linear and becomes an important design criterion.

One-watt fiber-based power-by-light system for satellite applications

In this work, a fiber-based optical powering (or power-by-light) system capable of providing more than 1 W is developed. The prototype was used in order to power a shunt regulator for controlling the activation and deactivation of solar panels in satellites. The work involves the manufacture of a light receiver (a GaAs multiple photovoltaic converter (MPC)), a power conditioning block, and a regulator and the implementation and characterization of the whole system. The MPC, with an active area of just 3.1 mm2, was able to supply 1 W at 5 V with an efficiency of 30%. The maximum measured device efficiency was over 40% at an input power (Pin) of 0.5 W. Open circuit voltage over 7 V was measured for Pin over 0.5 W. A system optoelectronic efficiency (including the optical fiber, connectors, and MPC) of 27% was measured at an output power (Pout) of 1 W. At Pout = 0.2 W, the efficiency was as high as 36%. The power conditioning block and the regulator were successfully powered with the system. The maximum supplied power in steady state was 0.2 W, whereas in transient state, it reached 0.44 W. The paper also describes the characterization of the system within the temperature range going from -70 to +100?°C.

Application of active heat pulse method with fiber optic temperature sensing for estimation of wetting bulbs and water distribution in drip emitters.

Through the use of the Distributed Fiber Optic Temperature Measurement (DFOT) method, it is possible to measure the temperature in small intervals (on the order of centimeters) for long distances (on the order of kilometers) with a high temporal frequency and great accuracy. The heat pulse method consists of applying a known amount of heat to the soil and monitoring the temperature evolution, which is primarily dependent on the soil moisture content. The use of both methods, which is called the active heat pulse method with fiber optic temperature sensing (AHFO), allows accurate soil moisture content measurements. In order to experimentally study the wetting patterns, i.e. shape, size, and the water distribution, from a drip irrigation emitter, a soil column of 0.5 m of diameter and 0.6 m high was built. Inside the column, a fiber optic cable with a stainless steel sheath was placed forming three concentric helixes of diameters 0.2 m, 0.4 m and 0.6 m, leading to a 148 measurement point network. Before, during, and after the irrigation event, heat pulses were performed supplying electrical power of 20 W/m to the steel. The soil moisture content was measured with a capacitive sensor in one location at depths of 0.1 m, 0.2 m, 0.3 m and 0.4 m during the irrigation. It was also determined by the gravimetric method in several locations and depths before and right after the irrigation. The emitter bulb dimensions and shape evolution was satisfactorily measured during infiltration. Furthermore, some bulb's characteristics difficult to predict (e.g. preferential flow) were detected. The results point out that the AHFO is a useful tool to estimate the wetting pattern of drip irrigation emitters in soil columns and show a high potential for its use in the field.

Synchronous Buck converter with Output Impedance Correction Circuit

This work is related to the improvement of the output impedance of the Buck converter by means of introducing an additional power path that virtually increases the output capacitance during transients. It is well known that in VRM applications, with wide load steps, voltage overshoots and undershoots may lead to undesired performance of the load. To solve this problem, high-bandwidth high-switching frequency power converters can be applied to reduce the transient time or a big output capacitor can be applied to reduce the output impedance. The first solution can degrade the efficiency by increasing switching losses of the MOSFETS, and the second solution is penalizing the cost and size of the output filter. The Output Impedance Correction Circuit (OICC), as presented here, is used to inject or extract a current n-1 times larger than the output capacitor current, thus virtually increasing n times the value of the output capacitance during the transients. This feature allows the usage of a low frequency Buck converter with smaller capacitor but satisfying the dynamic requirements.

Adaptive Control for ZVS Three Phase Full Active Bridge Converter with ARCN

This paper presents an adaptive control for the auxiliary circuit, called ARCN (Auxiliary Resonant Commutating Network), used to achieve ZVS in full active bridge converters under a wide load range. Depending on the load conditions, the proposed control adapts the timing of the ARCN to minimize the losses. The principle of operation and implementation considerations are presented for a three phase full active bridge converter, proposing different methods to implement the control according to the specifications. The experimental results shown verify the proposed methodology.

Simulation of wind farms in flat and complex terrain using CFD

Use of computational fluid dynamic (CFD) methods to predict the power production from wind entire wind farms in flat and complex terrain is presented in this paper. Two full 3D Navier–Stokes solvers for incompressible flow are employed that incorporate the k–ε and k–ω turbulence models respectively. The wind turbines (W/Ts) are modelled as momentum absorbers by means of their thrust coefficient using the actuator disk approach. The WT thrust is estimated using the wind speed one diameter upstream of the rotor at hub height. An alternative method that employs an induction-factor based concept is also tested. This method features the advantage of not utilizing the wind speed at a specific distance from the rotor disk, which is a doubtful approximation when a W/T is located in the wake of another and/or the terrain is complex. To account for the underestimation of the near wake deficit, a correction is introduced to the turbulence model. The turbulence time scale is bounded using the general “realizability” constraint for the turbulent velocities. Application is made on two wind farms, a five-machine one located in flat terrain and another 43-machine one located in complex terrain. In the flat terrain case, the combination of the induction factor method along with the turbulence correction provides satisfactory results. In the complex terrain case, there are some significant discrepancies with the measurements, which are discussed. In this case, the induction factor method does not provide satisfactory results.

Analysis of the traded volume drivers of the Iberian power futures market

A comprehensive assessment of the liquidity development in the Iberian power futures market managed by OMIP (“Operador do Mercado Ibérico de Energia, Pólo Português”) in its first 4 years of existence is performed. This market started on July 2006. A regression model tracking the evolution of the traded volumes in the continuous market is built as a function of 12 potential liquidity drivers. The only significant drivers are the traded volumes in OMIP compulsory auctions, the traded volumes in the “Over The Counter” (OTC) market, and the OTC cleared volumes in OMIP clearing house (OMIClear). Furthermore, the enrollment of financial members shows strong correlation with the traded volumes in the continuous market. OMIP liquidity is still far from the levels reached by the most mature European markets (Nord Pool and EEX). The market operator and its clearing house could develop efficient marketing actions to attract new entrants active in the spot market (energy intensive industries, suppliers, and small producers) as well as volumes from the opaque OTC market, and to improve the performance of existing illiquid products. An active dialogue with all the stakeholders (market participants, spot market operator, and supervisory authorities) will help to implement such actions.